Big Sky Power Rankings 10-2

[JALMOND]

Some near disasters among the games around the conference as the lower teams scared some of the upper tier teams, but the games ended up being about what was expected. Could it be that the conference top to bottom may be closer than it looks? Perhaps. This week finds half the teams are taking the week off so the schedule is relatively light. Here are this week's power rankings (last week is in parenthesis). Not much change from last week to this week and, with the light schedule, maybe not much change next week either. All are my opinion. Here they are.

1. Montana State (1)---Last week beat Portland State at home 38-22, this week bye---After a relatively close first half at home, the Bobcats came out in the second half meaning business, and quickly put the game away. They are inching closer to the top of all the FCS and they will take a break this weekend to get healthy.

2. Idaho (2)---Last week won at Eastern Washington 44-36, this week at Cal Poly---The Vandals passed another tough showdown last week, getting a strong road win over the conference upstart. They are showing no signs of slowing down and have two impressive conference wins so far. They play this weekend on the road but it should be easy.

3. Sacramento State (3)---Last week beat Northern Arizona at home 31-30, this week bye---Flying high, the Hornets were expecting just a small speed bump before their week off. However, they had all they could handle and barely escaped with a home win last week. They will see if they can recapture some of the good mojo by taking this week off.

4. Eastern Washington (4)---Last week lost to Idaho at home 44-36, this week bye---This weekend was a good test for the Eagles who were feeling good after a strong start to the season. They played their rivals from just to the south tough and close and only succumbed in the final quarter. They have to feel pretty good as they head into the bye week.

5. UC Davis (5)---Last week won at Cal Poly 31-13, this week Montana at home---After a tough home loss to start conference play, the Aggies beat up on the conference patsy to get their first conference win. They look to make it two as they are playing this weekend at home against a dangerous Montana team. All eyes on this matchup.

6. Montana (6)---Last week beat Idaho State at home 28-20, this week at UC Davis---Another week and another game that the Grizzlies seemed to sleep through. Luckily they were playing one of the lower teams otherwise this could have been ugly. When will they wake up? They have a tough road game this weekend that they will need to be awake.

7. Weber State (7)---Last week won at Northern Colorado 28-21, this week Northern Arizona at home---It was hard to tell what was more shocking, the Wildcats down 21-7 with 7 minutes left, or the Wildcats ending up winning the game 28-21. You have to play the whole game and they never gave up. But, they have a tough one at home this weekend.

8. Northern Arizona (9)---Last week lost at Sacramento State 31-30, this week at Weber State---It seems like the Lumberjacks are doing well, yet on paper they only have one win. But last week's game was a close loss to one of the heavies in the conference so they have to feel good. They may be able to get a good road win this weekend maybe?

9. Portland State (8)---Last week lost at Montana State 38-22, this week bye---The Vikings played hard, played tough, yet still could not come up with a win over the top pick. They've looked somewhat impressive at times, yet they are about where people thought they would be. If they want to surprise, they will need to use this weekend to figure things out.

10. Idaho State (10)---Last week lost at Montana 28-20, this week bye---After last week, the Bengals have shown that they may not win many games, but don't count them out of any games either. They went toe to toe in a hostile environment last week played a tough game. They can use this off week to refocus and maybe surprise some people.

11. Northern Colorado (12)---Last week lost to Weber State at home 28-21, this week bye---The Bears had their first win in their grasp last weekend, so close they could feel it. But, they have to learn to play the whole game and, no matter the score, there is always a chance to lose it. They need to regroup this weekend on the off week.

12. Cal Poly (11)---Last week lost to UC Davis at home 31-13, this week Idaho at home---Everyone else were playing relatively close games last week but the Mustangs took their loss and ran with it. Two tough games to start and they don't get their off week this weekend like most of the conference. They do stay home, however, but they face a really good team.

RECAP: 1-2 edging out front, 3-4 holding on, 5-9 still mushy, 10-12 holding down the rear.

[Vandal03]

Looks right to me. I was impressed watching Northern Arizona against Sacramento State. I would not be surprised to see them move up the power rankings. At this point, I am not sure who I would move down to move them up the power rankings.

[uofmman1122]

I still think you should swap Montana and NAU.

One of them is impressing while the other is so painfully underperforming.

[MSUBobcat]

1. Montana State (1) - Even questionable to egregious calls couldn't slow the Bobcats down. Had they not taken a knee on the last 2 plays, I would have almost perfectly predicted the score (PSU got to 22, I predicted 20).
2. Idaho (2) - Another week, another solid win for Idaho. This week should allow them to heal/rest the first teamers for the stretch run, which at this point seems to consist of a home game against MSU, unless UM and WSU (home and road, respectively) can figure it out.
3. Sac State (3) - Quite the struggle against an NAU team that appears to have been awakened by the embarrassing loss to UTU. But a win is a win, and I don't know who would jump them at this point.
4. EWU (4) - Another week, another ranked opponent, but this time the opponent was more formidable and the Eags' D reverted to its old ways, allowing a whopping 363 yards rushing and reclaiming the title of worst run D in the Big Sky. As there seems to be a blue print for success against them, I would have dropped them, but the Larison injury status is unknown (to me at least, please fill me in if anyone knows).
5. Davis (5) - Beat up on the worst team in the Big Sky. A test this week. Also need to know the extent of Larison's injury to accurately place them.
6. NAU (8) - Followed up the home W over Montana with a near-miss @Sac. The UTU game seems to have shocked the Lumberjacks back to life. Can they follow it up with a road victory in Ogden? Apparently my rankings think so!
7. Montana (9) - Normally, a 1 score game at WGS vs a bottom tier team would have me drop the Griz, but I already was really low on them after the performance to date and, more importantly, it looks like Clifton McDowell (252 total yards, 2 TD, no TO) may turn things around at the QB position, which has been dismal this year.
8. Portland State (7) - Put up more of a fight against MSU in Bozeman than BBQ in Odgen. (even if some drives were extended by bad calls)
9. Weber (6) - Weber continues the downward trajectory in my power ranking after needing some 4th quarter heroics to avoid a terrible loss @ NoCo (or OT at a minimum). I expected a drop off with the coach and all the players that are gone, but damn....
10. ISU (10) - The Bungles almost bungles up Montana's season! But you don't move up for moral victories. At least not in this conference xsmiley_wix
11. NoCo (11) - Collapsed at the end of what would have been a fairly surprising upset. They still have a road game at Poly to try to secure a W on the year.
12. Cal Poly (12) - Last week I said their only chance for a W would be against UNC, but that they gave ISU a fight so I didn't see them winning the head to head. Then NoCo had Weber on the ropes so I'm even more convinced that UNC wins H2H.

1-2 Solid teams looking at a deep playoff drive.
3-5 Losing confidence in them a bit, but still playoff contenders who could make some noise
6-7 Are they starting to figure it out for a push to potential playoffs?
8-9 Could sneak up on a contender and ruin their day, but starting to fade.
10-12 Still the bottom feeders

This year seems to have more parity than I initially interpreted. Some teams surprising in good ways, others in bad, very bad.

[wapiti]

1a. Idaho - Beat upstart EWU on the road.

1b. Montana State - Struggled in the first half, but made the adjustments to thump PSU in the 2nd half.

3. Sacramento State --Struggled at home against an improving NAU squad

4. Eastern Washington -- Gave the Vandals a tough game, despite the loss EWU remains number 4

5. UC Davis ---Did what they needed to against a bad CP team while missing their star offensive player

6. NAU-- Rising up after the Utah Tech game and gave Sac state a tough game

7. Weber -- Struggled for the W against UNCU, but it was on the road.

8. Portland State - Gave the Bobcats a good game for the 1st half.

9. Montana -- Struggled at home against the Bengals.

10. Idaho State -- Gave the griz a tough game in Missoula!!

11. Cal Poly -- Beat by a wounded UC Davis team

12. Northern Colorado -- Lost to a falling BBQ team at home

RECAP: 1-3 out front, 4-6 a step behind, 7-9 in a bunch, then 10-12 bringing up the rear.

[Roamingriz]

It looks like the switch to freshman QB Damante halfway through the UT tech game may have changed the NAU trajectory. He's not blowing any doors off but finding solid play in a freshman isn't something every team seems able to find.

[MSUBobcat]

It looks like the switch to freshman QB Damante halfway through the UT tech game may have changed the NAU trajectory. He's not blowing any doors off but finding solid play in a freshman isn't something every team seems able to find.

Appreciate the information. I wasn't aware of the change and had been curious how they went from getting blown out by UTU to beating the Griz at home to damn near taking down Sac State on the road. Dramatic turnaround. If they hadn't been down 24 points (after the starting QB fumbled for a scoop and score) when the switch was made, perhaps they don't eat that embarrassing loss.

[SeattleCat]

1a. Idaho - Beat upstart EWU on the road.

1b. Montana State - Struggled in the first half, but made the adjustments to thump PSU in the 2nd half.

3. Sacramento State --Struggled at home against an improving NAU squad

4. Eastern Washington -- Gave the Vandals a tough game, despite the loss EWU remains number 4

5. UC Davis ---Did what they needed to against a bad CP team while missing their star offensive player

6. NAU-- Rising up after the Utah Tech game and gave Sac state a tough game

7. Weber -- Struggled for the W against UNCU, but it was on the road.

8. Portland State - Gave the Bobcats a good game for the 1st half.

9. Montana -- Struggled at home against the Bengals.

10. Idaho State -- Gave the griz a tough game in Missoula!!

11. Cal Poly -- Beat by a wounded UC Davis team

12. Northern Colorado -- Lost to a falling BBQ team at home

RECAP: 1-3 out front, 4-6 a step behind, 7-9 in a bunch, then 10-12 bringing up the rear.

This is what championship teams do, when you're struggling with a lesser opponent you adjust and steamroll... and the Cats did steamroll, the score was way more generous than what it should have been. 1 TD was basically a ref gift, that drive was mind boggling, and the other was garbage time against 2s and 3s. I'm impressed with Idaho, they have a great Offense but their defense is average, they're giving up way too many points but hey they are scoring more. Their like an EWU clones with a slightly better defense, but their offense still makes them dangerous. I'd say the Cats D puts them ahead of Idaho for now.

[SeattleCat]

It looks like the switch to freshman QB Damante halfway through the UT tech game may have changed the NAU trajectory. He's not blowing any doors off but finding solid play in a freshman isn't something every team seems able to find.

Personally I think all the griz need is a good QB to turn it around, and maybe some guys that wanna block.

[Roamingriz]

They started the year with an FBS transfer from Cal, Kai Millner, who still has time to develop if he sticks around as a rs sophomore but good for NAU recognizing the need for the switch and sticking with it

[MSUBobcat]

This is what championship teams do, when you're struggling with a lesser opponent you adjust and steamroll... and the Cats did steamroll, the score was way more generous than what it should have been. 1 TD was basically a ref gift, that drive was mind boggling, and the other was garbage time against 2s and 3s. I'm impressed with Idaho, they have a great Offense but their defense is average, they're giving up way too many points but hey they are scoring more. Their like an EWU clones with a slightly better defense, but their offense still makes them dangerous. I'd say the Cats D puts them ahead of Idaho for now.

I guess I didn't really see much struggling from the Cats. They scored on every possession except two 3-and-outs in the first half and 2 kneel-downs from the 6 to end the game, which prevented it from showing how the game truly went (never in question even when it was close in the first half, IMO). Getting pretty spoiled if we think using the punter once in a while is struggling. Also PSU scored on a QB run that you'd like to have back, but an occasional big play is going to happen. The second TD was aided by a terrible targeting call that kept the drive going and the 3rd was in garbage time, up 24 points with 9 to play. PSU barely had 300 yards of total offense would have been under if not for the twice-ref-extended TD drive. It was 45-15 in my mind.

[JALMOND]

Also PSU scored on a QB run that you'd like to have back, but an occasional big play is going to happen.

Like an 88-yard scamper up the middle? xrolleyesx

[SeattleCat]

I guess I didn't really see much struggling from the Cats. They scored on every possession except two 3-and-outs in the first half and 2 kneel-downs from the 6 to end the game, which prevented it from showing how the game truly went (never in question even when it was close in the first half, IMO). Getting pretty spoiled if we think using the punter once in a while is struggling. Also PSU scored on a QB run that you'd like to have back, but an occasional big play is going to happen. The second TD was aided by a terrible targeting call that kept the drive going and the 3rd was in garbage time, up 24 points with 9 to play. PSU barely had 300 yards of total offense would have been under if not for the twice-ref-extended TD drive. It was 45-15 in my mind.

PSU gave us the stiffest 1st half this season. 17-14 is close plus the Vikings went into the half with some momentum and they got the ball to start. I thought we adjusted to what they were doing on defense very well and the offense kept rolling (and got better as PSU got tired). Point being PSU is a decent team, they very well could have kept momentum and then we would have had a shoot out on our hands which is not our style of play.

[MSUBobcat]

Like an 88-yard scamper up the middle? xrolleyesx

Sure. I readily admitted that those plays are going to happen. Not every game is going to be like against Weber and I'm not mad about PSU scoring points (everyone has except WSU). There are differences between the runs, IMO. First is that MSU has become known for breaking long TD runs. Another is that PSU didn't seem to have much of an answer for MSU's offense, especially in the 2nd half, so it likely just accelerated the same outcome of that drive. I also don't deny that perhaps PSU gets the TD anyway if they just convert the 3rd and 1 to extend the drive. Those weren't the points that weren't earned in my mind, FWIW.

The point of the whole post was that I didn't think the game was ever in question, not to say that run was unacceptable (quite the opposite).

[robsnotes4u]

PSU gave us the stiffest 1st half this season. 17-14 is close plus the Vikings went into the half with some momentum and they got the ball to start. I thought we adjusted to what they were doing on defense very well and the offense kept rolling (and got better as PSU got tired). Point being PSU is a decent team, they very well could have kept momentum and then we would have had a shoot out on our hands which is not our style of play.

It is the same thing NDSU has continued to do since back in the 80s, wear out the defensive lines, and by the middle of the third you slowly pull away.

I have watched plenty of games Bison games where you think your team is in the game at half, and walk away wondering what happened


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[JALMOND]

Sure. I readily admitted that those plays are going to happen. Not every game is going to be like against Weber and I'm not mad about PSU scoring points (everyone has except WSU). There are differences between the runs, IMO. First is that MSU has become known for breaking long TD runs. Another is that PSU didn't seem to have much of an answer for MSU's offense, especially in the 2nd half, so it likely just accelerated the same outcome of that drive. I also don't deny that perhaps PSU gets the TD anyway if they just convert the 3rd and 1 to extend the drive. Those weren't the points that weren't earned in my mind, FWIW.

The point of the whole post was that I didn't think the game was ever in question, not to say that run was unacceptable (quite the opposite).

I have to disagree. I thought that long TD run was the turning point of the game. Viks pinned the Cats back, and the first play didn't go anywhere. Viks come with the house and Chambers made an excellent read. Viks get a stop there, they have a short field to work with in what was still a 3-point game at that point. Obviously, the one play the Viks would like to have back.

Also, you take away that one play and the stats are fairly close.

[MSUBobcat]

PSU gave us the stiffest 1st half this season. 17-14 is close plus the Vikings went into the half with some momentum and they got the ball to start. I thought we adjusted to what they were doing on defense very well and the offense kept rolling (and got better as PSU got tired). Point being PSU is a decent team, they very well could have kept momentum and then we would have had a shoot out on our hands which is not our style of play.

I would disagree that it was a more difficult 1st half than SDSU. Going into half on Saturday up only 3, I still felt WAY more comfortable than I did with the 10pt lead in Brookings. Part of this is because I think the 2nd TD was gifted to them. Without the phantom targeting call, PSU would have gone punt, TD, punt, INT, punt with 127 yards to that point in the game. Conversely at that point, MSU had 17 points and 202 yards. Watching the game, the Cats were controlling play going into halftime. The players just needed to not let that call get in their head, which they obviously didn't.

This isn't to diminish PSU in any way. They are a decent team (I had them at 7 last week), and as I said, "Could sneak up on a contender and ruin their day". I'm eyeing the home games against EWU and UM as games where they muck up someone's season, with an outside chance for @Davis. But "struggled"? I didn't really see it.

[MSUBobcat]

I have to disagree. I thought that long TD run was the turning point of the game. Viks pinned the Cats back, and the first play didn't go anywhere. Viks come with the house and Chambers made an excellent read. Viks get a stop there, they have a short field to work with in what was still a 3-point game at that point. Obviously, the one play the Viks would like to have back.

Also, you take away that one play and the stats are fairly close.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. The first play of that drive went for 4 yards, leaving 2nd and 6 from the 12 (not pinned, whole playbook available). MSU averages 7.22 ypc on the season and 7.76 ypc against PSU EXCLUDING that run. Hell, the MSU offense averaged 7.36 yard per play still EXCLUDING the run. There is no objective evidence to believe that they don't get a first down when it was 2nd and 6 and we averaged over 7 on a single carry or play. Could they have? Anything is possible.

I've seen this playbook (that robsnotes4u mentioned) before and now after years of building and recruiting, we finally get to impose OUR will on the opponent in the 2nd half vs. getting manhandled like the Bison have done to us.

[SeattleCat]

I would disagree that it was a more difficult 1st half than SDSU. Going into half on Saturday up only 3, I still felt WAY more comfortable than I did with the 10pt lead in Brookings. Part of this is because I think the 2nd TD was gifted to them. Without the phantom targeting call, PSU would have gone punt, TD, punt, INT, punt with 127 yards to that point in the game. Conversely at that point, MSU had 17 points and 202 yards. Watching the game, the Cats were controlling play going into halftime. The players just needed to not let that call get in their head, which they obviously didn't.

This isn't to diminish PSU in any way. They are a decent team (I had them at 7 last week), and as I said, "Could sneak up on a contender and ruin their day". I'm eyeing the home games against EWU and UM as games where they muck up someone's season, with an outside chance for @Davis. But "struggled"? I didn't really see it.

I felt differently, I felt pretty good 10-0 at the half with SDSU and we were being super vanilla so I was confident we'd open it up in the second half and really take it to them, but that didn't happen. I really really feel like that game was lost due to poor play calling and poor clock management.

also personally, I feel like if we are who we think we are there's only a handful of teams that we could have a bad day and lose to. A middle of the pack BS team should never pose a threat, if they do we're probably not who we think we are.

[MSUBobcat]

I felt differently, I felt pretty good 10-0 at the half with SDSU and we were being super vanilla so I was confident we'd open it up in the second half and really take it to them, but that didn't happen. I really really feel like that game was lost due to poor play calling and poor clock management.

also personally, I feel like if we are who we think we are there's only a handful of teams that we could have a bad day and lose to. A middle of the pack BS team should never pose a threat, if they do we're probably not who we think we are.

I pretty much agree with all this, with the caveat that I didn't feel threatened by PSU even going into the half, just based on what I was seeing on the field, not on the scoreboard. I was probably more nervous at halftime for SDSU because I wasn't sure who "we are" having only played UTU, which isn't much of a barometer.

One other small caveat regarding the loss to SDSU, yes the play calling was terrible, but bad false start penalties (TWO on one red zone visit, THREE on another!?!?!) forcing very short FG's rather than TD's were back breakers. Convert one of those 3 RZ visits to TD's its a tie game. Convert 2, we win.

2nd quarter - 1st and 10 from their 11; 2 false starts; 27yd FG
4th quarter - recover a damn blocked punt at their ONE; 2 vanilla Chambers up the middle stuffed, false start, rush for 4; 19yd FG (this one f'ing hurt)
4th quarter - TIE GAME - 1st and 10 from their 11 again; false start... false start; eventually get to 4th and 1 from their 2 around 2 min to play; going for it b/c worst case they have 2 minutes to go 98 yards AND we can get a 1st down w/o a TD........ motherf****ing false start. (backbreaking)

Sorry, got off on a tangent. Can you tell I'm not over letting this one slip thru the fingers?

[SeattleCat]

I pretty much agree with all this, with the caveat that I didn't feel threatened by PSU even going into the half, just based on what I was seeing on the field, not on the scoreboard. I was probably more nervous at halftime for SDSU because I wasn't sure who "we are" having only played UTU, which isn't much of a barometer.

One other small caveat regarding the loss to SDSU, yes the play calling was terrible, but bad false start penalties (TWO on one red zone visit, THREE on another!?!?!) forcing very short FG's rather than TD's were back breakers. Convert one of those 3 RZ visits to TD's its a tie game. Convert 2, we win.

2nd quarter - 1st and 10 from their 11; 2 false starts; 27yd FG
4th quarter - recover a damn blocked punt at their ONE; 2 vanilla Chambers up the middle stuffed, false start, rush for 4; 19yd FG (this one f'ing hurt)
4th quarter - TIE GAME - 1st and 10 from their 11 again; false start... false start; eventually get to 4th and 1 from their 2 around 2 min to play; going for it b/c worst case they have 2 minutes to go 98 yards AND we can get a 1st down w/o a TD........ motherf****ing false start. (backbreaking)

Sorry, got off on a tangent. Can you tell I'm not over letting this one slip thru the fingers?

It's ok, I still have nightmares of Sean from shotgun running head first into 3000lbs of beef. FWIW I didn't feel threatened by PSU either, I just felt they gave us the best first half of anyone we've faced yet (second half not so much), no sweating here!

[JALMOND]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. The first play of that drive went for 4 yards, leaving 2nd and 6 from the 12 (not pinned, whole playbook available). MSU averages 7.22 ypc on the season and 7.76 ypc against PSU EXCLUDING that run. Hell, the MSU offense averaged 7.36 yard per play still EXCLUDING the run. There is no objective evidence to believe that they don't get a first down when it was 2nd and 6 and we averaged over 7 on a single carry or play. Could they have? Anything is possible.

I've seen this playbook (that robsnotes4u mentioned) before and now after years of building and recruiting, we finally get to impose OUR will on the opponent in the 2nd half vs. getting manhandled like the Bison have done to us.

It is fun to play "what if" after the fact. One thing I know, if a team wants any shot at winning there, they can't go down 10 points to the Cats. In Bozeman. During Homecoming. xlolx xnodx

[MSUBobcat]

It's ok, I still have nightmares of Sean from shotgun running head first into 3000lbs of beef. FWIW I didn't feel threatened by PSU either, I just felt they gave us the best first half of anyone we've faced yet (second half not so much), no sweating here!

Agreed. That was infuriating. It didn't work starting with the very first series of the season against UTU, so it sure as hell ain't gonna against a line like SDSU. xbangxxbangxxbangxxbangx <- that's not me, that's Chambers going nowhere fast.