Official Semi-Finals Predictions

[CharlestonAppFan]

OK people, this thread is not about smack xnonox only your individual predictions for the Division I Championship semi-finals xnodx .

A couple of rules though:xrulesx
1) Homerism is fine.....only when it is followed up by a somewhat clear argument for your chosen team, and if not....89Hen & GannonFan will make you study for the AGS exam on Statistical Analysis of the Past 20 Years of FCS Football...all 20 volumes xnodx
2) If any poster really thinks a team is going to beat another by 3 TD's....you will be banished to the bathroom in Crapsville with our resident southern Citdog, while he urinates on your leg, looking you directly in the eyes and proclaiming how the South got screwed
3) No shutouts.....or you get a week in solitary confinement while AZGriz blasts the Montana fight song and Montana's championship game tapes, while making you watch slideshows of the many views of Wash-Griz stadium

To my AGS long time residents...please feel free to add your own punishments as you see fit.

Here's my predictions:

1) Delware vs. SIU - Probably the best offense (well, tied for the best :D )remaining in the playoffs vs. probably the best defense remaining in the playoffs. How will the Salukis defend this deadly offensive punch? Flacco and Cuff intend to do some damage since they have had to stay an extra couple of days in Gateway country (I wonder if UNI freely gave them tape on SIU during their stay?xrotatehx ) Ah, but I believe SIU has an answer...defensive speed and execution. Now, the question is how many points with the Salukis give up before figuring out how to counter the Hens offense? Delaware will score, but they will get scored on as well. I don't see SIU keeping the Hens from putting up less than 28-30 points, but can they score that many as well? I say they do and SIU keeps Cuff in check, but not Flacco.....although they win due in part to the Hens' defense not up to par with shutting down SIU's dynamic QB.
Hens 30 Salukis 33

2) Richmond vs. ASU - Probably the best offense vs. one of best defenses left in the playoffs (wait, did I say that already?xeyebrowx ). ASU can score at will, just like the Hens, as Armanti and K Rich look to expose the tough run stopping defense of the Spiders. So how will Richmond look to counteract the running abilities of the 'Neers? By trying to put up over 40 points using their RB as a clockeater...a good offense is a good defense as well. However, if the Spiders commit to stopping Armanti's scrambling ability, K Rich (or D Moore) will capitalize. I see this as a fairly high scoring game, but I don't think Richmond has enough offensive firepower to battle it out in a shooting match. The Spider D is good, but will not stop ASU from scoring. Spidas 30 Mountaineers 35

[89Hen]

Delaware 31
Southern Illinois 28

Appalachian State 35
Richmond 24

[Black and Gold Express]

I really think UD is on a roll right now. They showed me a lot at UNI. I know they are havign one hell of a week travelling, but nobody has yet been able to stop these guys.

UD 28
SIU 17

Pure homerism here. ASU is the better team overall, but UR can play against ASU's weakness and run the ball. JMU blueprinted how to beat us, EWU had some success running when they did, and there is nothing to suggest that UR cannot rack up some nice rushing yardage.

All that said, ASU has the best offense of the remaining teams in the playoffs, and the best player of all fourt teams will take every snap that matters for us. There likewise is little to suggest UR will keep us from scoring when we have the ball. They aren't any better than anyone else we have faced on defense.

So, it's down to TOP again. I have to think ASU can get a few more stops than they did against JMU, and get Armanti and the offense back on the field. I think UR will win the TOP battle, but ASU will score fast enough to counter it.

UR 30
ASU 38

[pather]

SIU 35 Delaware 31
App. State 21 Richmond 20

[APPride]

I am too much of a superstitious weenie to make a prediction on the App game (man, I can't wait to get outta this underwear I've been wearin' since Nov. 24 !:o ...12 more days? xrolleyesx )

but
Hens 34
Salukis 27

[CharlestonAppFan]

I really think UD is on a roll right now. They showed me a lot at UNI. I know they are havign one hell of a week travelling, but nobody has yet been able to stop these guys.

UD 28
SIU 17

Pure homerism here. ASU is the better team overall, but UR can play against ASU's weakness and run the ball. JMU blueprinted how to beat us, EWU had some success running when they did, and there is nothing to suggest that UR cannot rack up some nice rushing yardage.

All that said, ASU has the best offense of the remaining teams in the playoffs, and the best player of all fourt teams will take every snap that matters for us. There likewise is little to suggest UR will keep us from scoring when we have the ball. They aren't any better than anyone else we have faced on defense.

So, it's down to TOP again. I have to think ASU can get a few more stops than they did against JMU, and get Armanti and the offense back on the field. I think UR will win the TOP battle, but ASU will score fast enough to counter it.

UR 30
ASU 38

I love reading your analysis each week on MMB, by the way xnodx. It was very hard and tough to call the Del vs. SIU game, because I know SIU has a good defense and a good offense. I mostly picked SIU because I don't want to see ASU (if ASU makes it past Richmond) play against Cuff at all xsmhx so it was more of a wishful thinking pick. Cuff would certainly be a handful to stop.....and then trying to stop Flacco......ouch.

[Blue Hen Nation]

I haven't predicted a score for UD in the playoffs and I'm not going to start. I will; however, take a stab at Richmond.

Richmond - 24
Appy - 21

[GGASU]

ASU 31
UR 13

SIU 24
UD 27

[GannonFan]

Also, it hasn't been since 1999 that both semifinal home teams have won their semifinal game, so homefield advantage, at this point in the season, starts to matter less and less. December football at its finest this weekend, here's my take.

The Friday night game first...

Richmond 35 Appalachian St 34 - Appalachian St has everything in their favor - a national name this year after beating Michigan, a raucous home crowd in one of the premier home-field advantages at the FCS level, a stud QB who is finally healthy leading an offensive machine, and those two back to back national titles that are two wins away from adding a third. However, the one thing that the don't have in their favor is the one thing that will derail them from their mission of a three-peat - a rush defense. Not saying that Appy St is chopped liver, but in their two losses this year, both Wofford and GSU punished Appy St on the ground. Furman, in a sub par year, was able to rush effectively, and in the first round of the playoffs JMU ran at will over Appy (of course, they couldn't hold onto the ball, but that's a different story). Richmond comes in with a two headed rushing attack with Hightower and Vaughan that, while stymied by a very good Wofford defense, still had enough firepower to overcome the Terriers. And while people focus on the run, Richmond can burn with the pass as well as Ward is effective enough and Grayson is a threat. While Richmond played well against Wofford on defense, it will be a different story with Appy St's attack. I don't think Richmond will stop them, but just as when Richmond played a similarly explosive UD team a few weeks ago, they won't bend easily. I think Richmond comes out swinging and puts Appy St on their heels early, and then survives the desperate comeback of a proud two-time champ. I think Richmond holds on for dear life and punches their ticket to Chatty.

Delaware 42 Southern Illinois 32 - Delaware made the biggest noise last week overcoming the incredibly loud UNI-Dome and the top seeded Panthers, taking down FCS's last unbeaten team. Flacco and Cuff again impressed, but this time they were joined by a resurgent defense, who played the first time since early October with both starting defensive ends in Marcorelle and Talley. Showing that those two guys together make a huge difference, UD's defense recovered from an early 10-0 deficit to force two turnovers, returning one for a TD, and made enough stops to allow the offense to do what they've done all year - score a lot of points. Travel could be an issue this week (UD just returned Monday afternoon and will probably fly out Thursday night) but so far a battle-hardened Hens team hasn't seemed fazed. Southern Illinois prevented an all-CAA semi by knocking off the underachieving UMass team that finally saw their sloppy play catch up with them. Three bad INT's by Coen sealed the deal as UMass piled up the yardage but not enough points. Southern Illinois is a lot like UD - potent offense with a quality signal caller directing the show, and a defense that is better than people think. However, UD seems to be on a mission right now, and with the defense getting healthy and with Flacco and Cuff willing UD forward, it's hard to see SIU keeping up with that. UD is very good at avoiding the turnovers and they won't fall into the hole that UMass did. I see UD pulling away later in the second half to beat the Salukis, and to force the first all-conference title game in I-AA/FCS history (Georgia Southern wasn't part of the SoCon when they faced Furman twice in the 80's in title games).

[walliver]

SIU - 42
Delaware -28

Richmond 34
ASU 31
- ASU has the offense to three-peat, but their defense may not be up to the task.

[Skjellyfetti]

Here's my predictions:

Appalachian State 34 - Richmond 28

Richmond will pound the ball as many predict but I believe App's D will have an easier time than they did again Wofford, Georgia Southern and JMU. Those three teams ran option attacks and I believe that is the Appalachian D's weakness. Furman has a similar rushing attack to Richmond and I believe App will give up yards but not be completely dominated like they were in the other three. App's offense will score points. The obvious key to the game is Richmond's offense versus Appalachian's D.

Delaware 35 - SIU 24

Deleware looks to be the hottest team at this point in the season. A balanced offense that is clicking like the Blue Hens are currently is VERY difficult to stop. However, SIU does have a good defense. They will have to either sell out and try to stop Cuff or add an extra defensive back to try to slow down Flacco. I think they'll try to stop the passing attack and Cuff is going to run wild.

[Houndawg]

Also, it hasn't been since 1999 that both semifinal home teams have won their semifinal game, so homefield advantage, at this point in the season, starts to matter less and less. December football at its finest this weekend, here's my take.

The Friday night game first...

Richmond 35 Appalachian St 34 - Appalachian St has everything in their favor - a national name this year after beating Michigan, a raucous home crowd in one of the premier home-field advantages at the FCS level, a stud QB who is finally healthy leading an offensive machine, and those two back to back national titles that are two wins away from adding a third. However, the one thing that the don't have in their favor is the one thing that will derail them from their mission of a three-peat - a rush defense. Not saying that Appy St is chopped liver, but in their two losses this year, both Wofford and GSU punished Appy St on the ground. Furman, in a sub par year, was able to rush effectively, and in the first round of the playoffs JMU ran at will over Appy (of course, they couldn't hold onto the ball, but that's a different story). Richmond comes in with a two headed rushing attack with Hightower and Vaughan that, while stymied by a very good Wofford defense, still had enough firepower to overcome the Terriers. And while people focus on the run, Richmond can burn with the pass as well as Ward is effective enough and Grayson is a threat. While Richmond played well against Wofford on defense, it will be a different story with Appy St's attack. I don't think Richmond will stop them, but just as when Richmond played a similarly explosive UD team a few weeks ago, they won't bend easily. I think Richmond comes out swinging and puts Appy St on their heels early, and then survives the desperate comeback of a proud two-time champ. I think Richmond holds on for dear life and punches their ticket to Chatty.

Delaware 42 Southern Illinois 32 - Delaware made the biggest noise last week overcoming the incredibly loud UNI-Dome and the top seeded Panthers, taking down FCS's last unbeaten team. Flacco and Cuff again impressed, but this time they were joined by a resurgent defense, who played the first time since early October with both starting defensive ends in Marcorelle and Talley. Showing that those two guys together make a huge difference, UD's defense recovered from an early 10-0 deficit to force two turnovers, returning one for a TD, and made enough stops to allow the offense to do what they've done all year - score a lot of points. Travel could be an issue this week (UD just returned Monday afternoon and will probably fly out Thursday night) but so far a battle-hardened Hens team hasn't seemed fazed. Southern Illinois prevented an all-CAA semi by knocking off the underachieving UMass team that finally saw their sloppy play catch up with them. Three bad INT's by Coen sealed the deal as UMass piled up the yardage but not enough points. Southern Illinois is a lot like UD - potent offense with a quality signal caller directing the show, and a defense that is better than people think. However, UD seems to be on a mission right now, and with the defense getting healthy and with Flacco and Cuff willing UD forward, it's hard to see SIU keeping up with that. UD is very good at avoiding the turnovers and they won't fall into the hole that UMass did. I see UD pulling away later in the second half to beat the Salukis, and to force the first all-conference title game in I-AA/FCS history (Georgia Southern wasn't part of the SoCon when they faced Furman twice in the 80's in title games).

xrolleyesx Does your brother play for UMass?

"You're moving the ball, moving, the ball, moving the ball. They're not doing anything to us. It's what I'm doing out there and what we're doing to ourselves." Liam Coen, UMass designated cry-baby.


UR - 34
ASU- 31

ASU can't stop the run, Hightower rolls. Big plays by AE and special teams keep ASU close.


SIU - 35
UD - 27

UNI held UD's offense to under 30, SIU's defense is better.
UD's defense plays well but can't hold SIU under 30. UMass didn't underachieve, they were whipped.

[Ivytalk]

Delaware 31
Southern Illinois 28

Appalachian State 35
Richmond 24

Me likey! But make it 30-28 for UD, as our kicker will somehow manage to have another XP blocked!:o

[GannonFan]

xrolleyesx Does your brother play for UMass?

"You're moving the ball, moving, the ball, moving the ball. They're not doing anything to us. It's what I'm doing out there and what we're doing to ourselves." Liam Coen, UMass designated cry-baby.


UR - 34
ASU- 31

ASU can't stop the run, Hightower rolls. Big plays by AE and special teams keep ASU close.


SIU - 35
UD - 27

UNI held UD's offense to under 30, SIU's defense is better.
UD's defense plays well but can't hold SIU under 30. UMass didn't underachieve, they were whipped.

Actually, I don't really like UMass very much, as I'm sure many UMass posters will let you know. And I saw the game and Coen didn't play well - two of those INT's were brutal decisions on his part. And I know of brutal decisions since I just watched AJ Feeley make plenty for the Eagles this weekend.

And yes, UMass underachieved - they underachieved all year and they were sloppy and it finally caught up to them. You'd have to see more than the SIU game, though, to know that.

As for UNI's defense, if you take out the defensive TD, they held UD to 32 points. Of course, you'd also have to make the argument that UD wouldn't have scored on the possession if the guy recovered the fumble and ran out of bounds rather than scoring. UD's scored under 30 twice this year - once to Towson (who does have a good defense) where they scored 27 and once to nova when UD was already in the playoffs and couldn't get a seed. UD scoring more than 30 this weekend is a pretty safe bet. As to what they can hold SIU to, well, that will be the key to the game.

[Houndawg]

Actually, I don't really like UMass very much, as I'm sure many UMass posters will let you know. And I saw the game and Coen didn't play well - two of those INT's were brutal decisions on his part. And I know of brutal decisions since I just watched AJ Feeley make plenty for the Eagles this weekend.

And yes, UMass underachieved - they underachieved all year and they were sloppy and it finally caught up to them. You'd have to see more than the SIU game, though, to know that.

As for UNI's defense, if you take out the defensive TD, they held UD to 32 points. Of course, you'd also have to make the argument that UD wouldn't have scored on the possession if the guy recovered the fumble and ran out of bounds rather than scoring. UD's scored under 30 twice this year - once to Towson (who does have a good defense) where they scored 27 and once to nova when UD was already in the playoffs and couldn't get a seed. UD scoring more than 30 this weekend is a pretty safe bet. As to what they can hold SIU to, well, that will be the key to the game.

I was crediting an FG to the defense off the fumble recovery. Both teams in the 30's sounds about right. Coen didn't play well because he was pressured all night and couldn't handle it; a good defense made him look bad in spite of his numbers. SIU made the plays on the important downs, thats just a fact.

[caribbeanhen]

Richmond over App ST 31 -28

Delaware over S Ill 35 - 28

CAA all the way

[Mountaineer#96]

Delaware 31
Southern Illinois 28

Appalachian State 35
Richmond 24

Same EXACT prediction, truth that quality minds think alike. This also would make for a even greater experience in Chatty.

[HiHiYikas]

I'm not so sure ASU's rushing defense is the key everyone thinks it is. UR's Hightower will probably go off, just as predicted. And just as several other great running backs have done against ASU in the 05, 06, and 07 playoffs.

Question is will it be enough to outdo ASU's offense? That's the key, as I see it. For my prediction, I answer 'no' to that question, and pick ASU by 8-10 points.

[Skjellyfetti]

I'm not so sure ASU's rushing defense is the key everyone thinks it is. UR's Hightower will probably go off, just as predicted. And just as several other great running backs have done against ASU in the 05, 06, and 07 playoffs.

Question is will it be enough to outdo ASU's offense? That's the key, as I see it. For my prediction, I answer 'no' to that question, and pick ASU by 8-10 points.

After what JMU did, though, it's hard not to see their running game as a huge threat. Being able to slow down Hightower on 1st and 2nd down to set up 3rd and 5+ will be key. Forcing them to throw the ball and not drain clock like JMU did will be huge.

[mcveyrl]

I'm not so sure ASU's rushing defense is the key everyone thinks it is. UR's Hightower will probably go off, just as predicted. And just as several other great running backs have done against ASU in the 05, 06, and 07 playoffs.

Question is will it be enough to outdo ASU's offense? That's the key, as I see it. For my prediction, I answer 'no' to that question, and pick ASU by 8-10 points.

For me, the point is the "JMU Plan." If ASU doesn't stop Hightower, ASU's offense might not have the ball enough to put up their trademark monster numbers.

It wasn't our defense that held your offense to 28 points, it was our offense.

[Skjellyfetti]

For me, the point is the "JMU Plan." If ASU doesn't stop Hightower, ASU's offense might not have the ball enough to put up their trademark monster numbers.

It wasn't our defense that held your offense to 28 points, it was our offense.

I agree 100%. We have to stack the box and make them throw it to beat us. Even if they put up points it will give our offense a chance. And if it turns into a high scoring affair Appalachian will have the advantage.

It's going to be an incredibly interesting game. Can't wait. :D

[APPride]

For me, the point is the "JMU Plan." If ASU doesn't stop Hightower, ASU's offense might not have the ball enough to put up their trademark monster numbers.

It wasn't our defense that held your offense to 28 points, it was our offense.

agreed...but it's also not a handicap on us that our scores generally take less than 3 minutes each... xeekx xeekx

[james_lawfirm]

For me, the point is the "JMU Plan." If ASU doesn't stop Hightower, ASU's offense might not have the ball enough to put up their trademark monster numbers.

It wasn't our defense that held your offense to 28 points, it was our offense.


Maybe. But, from what I saw, JMU did the things that gave ASU's defense fits.

I agree with other posters who have noted the similarities between this year's Richmond and last year's YSU and UMass. The big, punishing running back who runs straight ahead does not seem to trouble ASU's D nearly so much as the small, quick backs (like J. Foster). Furman's Felton did not do too well. It is as if we expect the big guy to run straight ahead and are ready for it. But when a small quick back just darts through smaller holes, it is tough to defend. Anyway, I like our chances against UR.

I hope the special teams guys got some "learnin" during this week's practice. I am sure they did. When was the last time Coach Moore called out any part of the team like he did on the radio referring to special teams? That was a drastic measure. I bet we show improvement in that area. Otherwise, the D may be playing special teams too.

[mcveyrl]

agreed...but it's also not a handicap on us that our scores generally take less than 3 minutes each... xeekx xeekx

Exactly. The less 3 minute periods you're on the field, the better for UR.

[mcveyrl]

Maybe. But, from what I saw, JMU did the things that gave ASU's defense fits.

I agree with other posters who have noted the similarities between this year's Richmond and last year's YSU and UMass. The big, punishing running back who runs straight ahead does not seem to trouble ASU's D nearly so much as the small, quick backs (like J. Foster). Furman's Felton did not do too well. It is as if we expect the big guy to run straight ahead and are ready for it. But when a small quick back just darts through smaller holes, it is tough to defend. Anyway, I like our chances against UR.

I hope the special teams guys got some "learnin" during this week's practice. I am sure they did. When was the last time Coach Moore called out any part of the team like he did on the radio referring to special teams? That was a drastic measure. I bet we show improvement in that area. Otherwise, the D may be playing special teams too.


I think Hightower's in the middle of the two examples. That's why it's really a toss-up for me. If he were quick and dartty (not a word, I don't think) I would be all over UR to win this.

Plus, Landers is not super quick, but he pounded it outside for some good yards. The key will be if Hightower is quick enough to pound it outside since UR runs a different offense than us (I think it's easier for a spread QB to get outside than a runback that's set back, more people to chase in the spread)

[HiHiYikas]

Check out the stats from the 05 semifinal against Furman (http://www.goasu.com/football/stats/2005/6153/), james.

271 rushing yards for Furman to ASU's 213. Felton went over 100, and 3 other guys went over 50 each. ASU wins 29-23 in a game that could have easily gone the other way.

Might be another one of those.

[ASUdrummer]

Everyone has said our defense won't pull us through EVERY WEEK...guess what, we're still playing. The only reason JMU kept it so close with their running game is because they had the ball for 41 MINUTES!!! I'm not saying our defense is stellar, but as long as we can keep somewhat control of the clock we win. As for the Delaware/SIU game. Souther Illinois has been insanely strong lately and Delaware has been crazy good at scoring points. I think this one will come down to home field advantage. I give it to the Salukis even though I'd rather honestly see Delaware.

Predictions:
ASU 38
UR 28

SIU 31
UD 28

[Kiss My Apps]

Don't under value the experience factor, especially at the QB position. Armanti Edwards has survived the pressure cooker on multiple occassions, on some of college football's biggest stages. Our players and coaches have been here before.

The game is at The Rock. First night game in 7 years.

App State - 45
Richmond - 32

Both SIU and Delaware are peaking offensively right now, but both the defensive edge and home field advantage set the stage for SIU's return to the finals.

SIU - 35
Delaware - 28

[Eight Legger]

I'll take UR 28, Appy 24. A big dose of Josh Vaughan pulls it out for us.

And I'll go Delaware 31, SIU 27. The Hens have too much offense.

See you in Nooga.

[appfan2008]

ASU over UR
UD over SIU

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

I really don't know much about SIU......Hens have a great 1-2 punch with Flacco and Cuff and their receivers seemed to catch everything. Hens by 7.

ASU by 14..............close game at The Rock.....AE will be the difference in this game.

[TheValleyRaider]

Richmond at Appalachian State Richmond Spiders have been relatively quiet so far this postseason, putting up solid wins over EKU and Wofford. Mountaineers have certainly had their victories be interesting, squeezing out JMU and holding off EWU. Two great coaches as well, as Clawson vs. Moore should be a great matchup. This is the game I'm really looking forward to the most this weekend. Guys like Edwards, Richardson, Lynch know how to make the plays to win big games, but at the same time, no one's ever won 3 titles in a row. Plus, I picked Richmond to win at Montana and at McNeese to get to Chattanooga when this started, so what's winning at Appalachian State, really? Heck, they already won at Delaware, which is no picnic. They'll be right back in the picture next season, but the Mountaineers' incredible 3 year run finally comes to a close under the lights Friday

Delaware at Southern Illinois Southern Illinois Flacco and Cuff are for real, and have been all season. But I just can't help but think that their defense, which was suspect for most of the season, isn't going to come back and haunt them at some point. SIU can move the ball, and in Nick Hill, the Salukis have a playmaker of their own. I will say this for the Hens: they really seem to be the best program at walking into a game, feeling confident that they'll win, and then doing it. Picking against them is a dangerous thing to do. But when has danger stopped me before. SIU has already proven they can run with anyone in the country, coming up just short in the UNIDome and taking out a very strong CAA side in UMass. Jerry Kill and his boys use Delaware as another stepping stone to show just how far they've come as a program, even since 2003

[great2bmtneer]

I'm in disbelief over the special teams play last week. wow. Jerry Moore went over and apologized to EWU's coach for our crappy play. The guys upfront aren't really that bad on defense but for some reason, just can't seem to get it together lately. They make great plays then follow up with terrible reads. I keep thinking App's gonna just turn it on but there just doesn't seem to be a fifth gear this year.
App may squeak by but not by much at all. And the Friday game is not in Apps favor at all in my opinion as it breaks up a consistent routine of sat afternoon games...but then again, who knows, maybe this'll help 'em find that missing gear.

On the other hand:

Deleware 40
So Ill 22

Deleware is going to be a very difficult team to stop at this point in the year. They're really good. App can't stop 'em and if they had any chance at all, it'd be to outscore 'em.

[Houndawg]

Richmond at Appalachian State Richmond Spiders have been relatively quiet so far this postseason, putting up solid wins over EKU and Wofford. Mountaineers have certainly had their victories be interesting, squeezing out JMU and holding off EWU. Two great coaches as well, as Clawson vs. Moore should be a great matchup. This is the game I'm really looking forward to the most this weekend. Guys like Edwards, Richardson, Lynch know how to make the plays to win big games, but at the same time, no one's ever won 3 titles in a row. Plus, I picked Richmond to win at Montana and at McNeese to get to Chattanooga when this started, so what's winning at Appalachian State, really? Heck, they already won at Delaware, which is no picnic. They'll be right back in the picture next season, but the Mountaineers' incredible 3 year run finally comes to a close under the lights Friday

Delaware at Southern Illinois Southern Illinois Flacco and Cuff are for real, and have been all season. But I just can't help but think that their defense, which was suspect for most of the season, isn't going to come back and haunt them at some point. SIU can move the ball, and in Nick Hill, the Salukis have a playmaker of their own. I will say this for the Hens: they really seem to be the best program at walking into a game, feeling confident that they'll win, and then doing it. Picking against them is a dangerous thing to do. But when has danger stopped me before. SIU has already proven they can run with anyone in the country, coming up just short in the UNIDome and taking out a very strong CAA side in UMass. Jerry Kill and his boys use Delaware as another stepping stone to show just how far they've come as a program, even since 2003

UD and ASU are the reason they've been recruiting for speed since '03. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. The Gateway has a rep for not having the team speed the CAA and SoCon do, but this SIU D isn't from the same mold. They've given up points and yardage, but in all games there are a handfull of plays that happen at crucial difference making times and so far SIU made more of those plays on key downs. Even in the UNI game they held CLew to 90 yards, and they were playing it pretty straight because of Sanders. IMO, Flacco is a lot more likely to hurt us than Cuff, no dis to Omar, but we have stopped good backs or held them below their avg. all year. QBs that can move have hurt us.

[Houndawg]

I'm in disbelief over the special teams play last week. wow. Jerry Moore went over and apologized to EWU's coach for our crappy play. The guys upfront aren't really that bad on defense but for some reason, just can't seem to get it together lately. They make great plays then follow up with terrible reads. I keep thinking App's gonna just turn it on but there just doesn't seem to be a fifth gear this year.
App may squeak by but not by much at all. And the Friday game is not in Apps favor at all in my opinion as it breaks up a consistent routine of sat afternoon games...but then again, who knows, maybe this'll help 'em find that missing gear.

On the other hand:

Deleware 40
So Ill 22

Deleware is going to be a very difficult team to stop at this point in the year. They're really good. App can't stop 'em and if they had any chance at all, it'd be to outscore 'em.

Delaware may score 40 but I'll be surprised if the hold SIU to 22 points.

[HENJOHN]

John's Super Lotto Quick Picks:

APP STATE--- 29
RICHMOND---- 24

Travel Tested HENS--- 30
Tough SIU Salukis----- 28


Sets up a chance for an all time record Attendance in Chattanooga for the BIG Game.

[bamamountaineer1013]

I can't pick the winner of the App/UR game because my superstitions won't allow it...

That being said...

UD 31
SIU 28

GO APP!!!

[skinny_uncle]

Delaware may score 40 but I'll be surprised if the hold SIU to 22 points.
I'll surprised if UD scores 40. No one has scored more than 31 (Northern Illinois) on the Dawgs all year.

[Nebuta]

Delaware over SIU. Really toss up.. I have to give the edge to Delaware. Only because of Flacco's will to win. He is very confident in his abilities. And with teammate Cuff, not only do you get one of the best runners, you get a excellent pass blocker, and a good receiver coming out of the back field. With that, Delaware's offense can score and score quickly (Note: Navy game, right before half) SIU is the best balance team in the field, their offense is one of the best. Hill can hold his own against the FCS best quarterbacks. They will give Delaware's defense problems. SIU defense is solid. Travel may take its toll on the Blue Hens team, for they will be logging more frequent flyer miles then most business executives this week. If Delaware comes out flat in the 1st quarter like they did in the UNI game, SIU will win this game by 2 scores. If no turnovers, then SIU/Delaware should be a classic. If UD defense shows up like they did with UNI, Delaware wins.

Richmond over App St. Thats right, I said the spiders. App State has a high powered offense. With Edwards, App State can do a number of things that will give Richmond's defense problems, because Armanti can do pass and is a threat to run. Luckly Richmond did play Santos this year and figured out a way to contain him. The spiders will need to keep that offense off the field just as JMU did. App State's defense has been suspect to the run, which plays into UR's strengths. Spiders O-line is one of the best, they are a hard nose group of guys who can just pound you for 4 quarters. Eventually providing great holes for their RBs. Not to take anything away from Hightower, who is simply amazing. He is one of the best running backs in the nation. He can run you over and still have the speed to take it to the house. Ward will make the passes needed to keep App St defense honest and not play 8 men in the box. I like Richmond to remain undefeated against ranked opponents this year and go to the finals.

[GannonFan]

I'll surprised if UD scores 40. No one has scored more than 31 (Northern Illinois) on the Dawgs all year.

Before UNH came into the UNI-Dome, no one had scored more than 24 on UNI all year. And then UD came in and scored 39 against them.

And Northern Illinois is a terrible example to use - they were brutal on offense all year (weren't even a good team in a bad MAC this year) - the 31 points they put up against SIU was the second best scoring effort for them all year, by an easy margin actually. Only Idaho gave up more. Heck, NIU only scored 24 in a double digit loss against a porous Navy defense that UD beat and scored 59 against.

[Appdad]

You guys are forgetting that NAU and JMU had extensive looks at the inner workings of the ASU program. That obviously was used in their game plans.

RU, UD, SIU don't have that knowledge.

I bring up NAU because of the comparasions EWU posters made to the NAU game.

Those trying to draw conclusions from comparing JMU need to consider that fact.

Mike Ayers has spent 20 years studing Jerry Moore.

GSU had Jayson Foster. I have watched all the remaining teams playing and I haven't found his twin.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

[DTSpider]

I won't predict the UR game, but only to say that I know that UR will play hard. Hopefully we'll catch enough breaks to pull it out. Winning on the road is never easy, and certainly not in Boone.

As much as I would like to say I pick UD in the other game, but I think that SIU may pull it out. UD had a huge win last week, but has a short week due to weather this week. UD isn't used to traveling in the playoffs and that may be enough to tip the scales. SIU 34 - UD 31.

[GannonFan]

You guys are forgetting that NAU and JMU had extensive looks at the inner workings of the ASU program. That obviously was used in their game plans.

RU, UD, SIU don't have that knowledge.

I bring up NAU because of the comparasions EWU posters made to the NAU game.

Those trying to draw conclusions from comparing JMU need to consider that fact.

Mike Ayers has spent 20 years studing Jerry Moore.

GSU had Jayson Foster. I have watched all the remaining teams playing and I haven't found his twin.

Just my thoughts on the matter.


The "inner workings"?? Come on, it's still just football -this isn't like curing cancer for crying out loud.

[GannonFan]

I won't predict the UR game, but only to say that I know that UR will play hard. Hopefully we'll catch enough breaks to pull it out. Winning on the road is never easy, and certainly not in Boone.

As much as I would like to say I pick UD in the other game, but I think that SIU may pull it out. UD had a huge win last week, but has a short week due to weather this week. UD isn't used to traveling in the playoffs and that may be enough to tip the scales. SIU 34 - UD 31.


Interesting note - the seniors on this team played their first year in 2004 at the earliest. In that time, UD has played 2 home playoff games and 2 road playoff games, soon to be 3 road playoff games. It's not as foreign as you think it would be.

[Appdad]

The "inner workings"?? Come on, it's still just football -this isn't like curing cancer for crying out loud.


Really? You don't think putting both staffs together for a complete review of both programs is "inner workings"?

The NAU coach has personally been to Boone several times to learn our offense and how our coaches run it. That's not an advantage?

Scouting knowledge doesn't matter? Look at Bob Knight's early successes at Indiana when he was one of the first to use of detailed video tape scouting. He gives a lot of credit for his 3 national championships to his scouting opponents. By the way how did Coach Nelson Golden State beat Dallas last year?

As a coach for 20 years I can say the more I know about an opponent the more I can make average atheles great.

Just my humble thoughts.

[Appdad]

Interesting note - the seniors on this team played their first year in 2004 at the earliest. In that time, UD has played 2 home playoff games and 2 road playoff games, soon to be 3 road playoff games. It's not as foreign as you think it would be.

It isn't, however, having to spend two extra days on the road while having luggage for 2 is tough. I remember a red hot Braves team going into St. Louis in the playoffs many years ago. It seemed like it took 8 days to play 2 games. Those hotels get old.

Hopefully for UD they can overcome the disadvantage the weather has given them.

[mcveyrl]

You guys are forgetting that NAU and JMU had extensive looks at the inner workings of the ASU program. That obviously was used in their game plans.

RU, UD, SIU don't have that knowledge.

I bring up NAU because of the comparasions EWU posters made to the NAU game.

Those trying to draw conclusions from comparing JMU need to consider that fact.

Mike Ayers has spent 20 years studing Jerry Moore.

GSU had Jayson Foster. I have watched all the remaining teams playing and I haven't found his twin.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

Didn't ASU also have knowledge of the "inner workings" of the other teams?? Plus, does it take knowledge of "inner workings" to say..."hey, this team scores a lot and has a great offense. on the other hand, their run defense is suspect. maybe if we run the ball more, hold onto the ball for longer than they do, we probably have a better chance of winning."

I love Mickey, but he doesn't strike me as a real complex person.

[saint0917]

I'm going to be a CAA Homer

Delaware- 38
Southern Illinois- 31

Appalachian State- 28
Richmond- 30

[Purple For Life]

OK people, this thread is not about smack xnonox only your individual predictions for the Division I Championship semi-finals xnodx .

A couple of rules though:xrulesx
1) Homerism is fine.....only when it is followed up by a somewhat clear argument for your chosen team, and if not....89Hen & GannonFan will make you study for the AGS exam on Statistical Analysis of the Past 20 Years of FCS Football...all 20 volumes xnodx
2) If any poster really thinks a team is going to beat another by 3 TD's....you will be banished to the bathroom in Crapsville with our resident southern Citdog, while he urinates on your leg, looking you directly in the eyes and proclaiming how the South got screwed
3) No shutouts.....or you get a week in solitary confinement while AZGriz blasts the Montana fight song and Montana's championship game tapes, while making you watch slideshows of the many views of Wash-Griz stadium

To my AGS long time residents...please feel free to add your own punishments as you see fit.

Here's my predictions:

1) Delware vs. SIU - Probably the best offense (well, tied for the best :D )remaining in the playoffs vs. probably the best defense remaining in the playoffs. How will the Salukis defend this deadly offensive punch? Flacco and Cuff intend to do some damage since they have had to stay an extra couple of days in Gateway country (I wonder if UNI freely gave them tape on SIU during their stay?xrotatehx ) Ah, but I believe SIU has an answer...defensive speed and execution. Now, the question is how many points with the Salukis give up before figuring out how to counter the Hens offense? Delaware will score, but they will get scored on as well. I don't see SIU keeping the Hens from putting up less than 28-30 points, but can they score that many as well? I say they do and SIU keeps Cuff in check, but not Flacco.....although they win due in part to the Hens' defense not up to par with shutting down SIU's dynamic QB.
Hens 30 Salukis 33

2) Richmond vs. ASU - Probably the best offense vs. one of best defenses left in the playoffs (wait, did I say that already?xeyebrowx ). ASU can score at will, just like the Hens, as Armanti and K Rich look to expose the tough run stopping defense of the Spiders. So how will Richmond look to counteract the running abilities of the 'Neers? By trying to put up over 40 points using their RB as a clockeater...a good offense is a good defense as well. However, if the Spiders commit to stopping Armanti's scrambling ability, K Rich (or D Moore) will capitalize. I see this as a fairly high scoring game, but I don't think Richmond has enough offensive firepower to battle it out in a shooting match. The Spider D is good, but will not stop ASU from scoring. Spidas 30 Mountaineers 35

I completely agree with you 110%.

[james_lawfirm]

The "inner workings"?? Come on, it's still just football -this isn't like curing cancer for crying out loud.

Gannon:

Now, wait a minute. I thought AppDad made a lot of sense. Coaches Moore & Matthews go way back, ditto w/ Coach Ayers. Part of knowing how to respond to an adversary is knowing their strengths, weaknesses & tendencies in any given situation. Sort of a Sun Tzu - "The Art of War" thing.

If you did not know, Coaches Moore & Matthews and their staffs swapped notes following the JMU/ASU game in 2006. That is what ultimately led to a new starting QB named Edwards. The rest is history.

I don't know what "inner workings" AppDad was referring to w/ NAU (maybe there were some common asst. coaches or something), but his point was that teams that know how a coaching staff thinks and makes decisions has an advantage over those who don't know. Up at the ROCK, visiting teams need all the help they can get.

A number of posters, myself included, feel that JMU was and will be the toughest challenge to ASU in the playoffs in Boone. And, this is because of the reasons cited above.

[james_lawfirm]

Didn't ASU also have knowledge of the "inner workings" of the other teams?? Plus, does it take knowledge of "inner workings" to say..."hey, this team scores a lot and has a great offense. on the other hand, their run defense is suspect. maybe if we run the ball more, hold onto the ball for longer than they do, we probably have a better chance of winning."


Apparently, its just not that easy.

[mcveyrl]

Apparently, its just not that easy.

If that's supposed to be some kind of smack because you won, then you need to read more closely there counselor.

All I was saying is that our game plan wasn't exactly the type of intricate design that required knowledge of the "inner workings" of ASU Football (what type of undies are they wearing, Under Armour or Nike??). Any Joe Blow could've told you what we needed to do.

In fact, earlier in the week I said that I thought that ASU was one of the better match-ups we could've drawn because of our ability to run and keep their offense off the field.

Then, with about 7 minutes left, Mickey started thinking...xrotatehx xrotatehx

I will guarantee you that Richmond's plan is ball control using Hightower and Vaughn with some short passing. On defense, they know that you can't stop ASU, you can only hope to contain them.

[GannonFan]

Gannon:

Now, wait a minute. I thought AppDad made a lot of sense. Coaches Moore & Matthews go way back, ditto w/ Coach Ayers. Part of knowing how to respond to an adversary is knowing their strengths, weaknesses & tendencies in any given situation. Sort of a Sun Tzu - "The Art of War" thing.

If you did not know, Coaches Moore & Matthews and their staffs swapped notes following the JMU/ASU game in 2006. That is what ultimately led to a new starting QB named Edwards. The rest is history.

I don't know what "inner workings" AppDad was referring to w/ NAU (maybe there were some common asst. coaches or something), but his point was that teams that know how a coaching staff thinks and makes decisions has an advantage over those who don't know. Up at the ROCK, visiting teams need all the help they can get.

A number of posters, myself included, feel that JMU was and will be the toughest challenge to ASU in the playoffs in Boone. And, this is because of the reasons cited above.

Oh, I knew about the staffs sitting down with each other in the off season, but like mcveyrl said, Mickey's not exactly a brain surgeon. And like I said, playcalling and the such aren't that complicated. JMU runs the ball a lot. Appy St has problems stopping the run. It didn't need an exposure to Appy St's inner workings to tell that JMU was going to give Appy St fits in that regard.

I just think you guys are overplaying the significance of that knowledge. Did it help JMU or NAU? I'm sure it helped a little. But football is not that complicated that this meeting was the equivalent of discovering the Rosetta Stone.

[texcap]

Also, it hasn't been since 1999 that both semifinal home teams have won their semifinal game, so homefield advantage, at this point in the season, starts to matter less and less.

Interesting fact. I see that you also picked both home teams to lose in the semis. When was the last time that happened? I did just a quick look and I am pretty sure at least one home team in the semi's has advanced to the championship game since 1997, and maybe even farther back than that.

[GannonFan]

Interesting fact. I see that you also picked both home teams to lose in the semis. When was the last time that happened? I did just a quick look and I am pretty sure at least one home team in the semi's has advanced to the championship game since 1997, and maybe even farther back than that.

1997 is in fact the only year where both home teams lost in the semis. And it also included a Delaware team in the Final Four that year too. Maybe with this year being a "7" year and a Delaware team in the mix again... xthumbsupx

[ASUMountaineer]

No reasons, just gut picks.

UD - 34
SIU - 31

UR - 31
ASU - 38

[Spider]

SPIDAHS OVER APPY, HENS OVER SIU......ALL CAA FINAL.........

[mountain_man]

ASU 38-UR 24
Our coaches will have our boys ready, and the kinks worked out! We have the talent, and our team is primed and ready to have a huge performance.

UD 45-SIU 35
The Blue Hens are red hot.

[james_lawfirm]

If that's supposed to be some kind of smack because you won, then you need to read more closely there counselor.

All I was saying is that our game plan wasn't exactly the type of intricate design that required knowledge of the "inner workings" of ASU Football (what type of undies are they wearing, Under Armour or Nike??). Any Joe Blow could've told you what we needed to do.

In fact, earlier in the week I said that I thought that ASU was one of the better match-ups we could've drawn because of our ability to run and keep their offense off the field.

Then, with about 7 minutes left, Mickey started thinking...xrotatehx xrotatehx

I will guarantee you that Richmond's plan is ball control using Hightower and Vaughn with some short passing. On defense, they know that you can't stop ASU, you can only hope to contain them.

McV:

No smack intended. Sorry if it seemed that way.

All I meant was that your general comments about stopping a good running team's running game or a good passing team's passing game is really missing AppDad's point here. You seemed to misinterpret his "inner workings" comments. It has nothing to do with his underwear. It has more to do with being able to guess what your opponent is apt to do in any given situation.

I was just pointing out that it was harder to stop a team's strong points than you suggest. I also think that a coach who understands how his opponent thinks and makes decisions has a better chance to win the game than someone whose only experience with his opponent is just a bunch of game film. That was the real point that AppDad made that I thought was worthy of more discussion.

[Appdad]

think you guys are overplaying the significance of that knowledge. Did it help JMU or NAU? I'm sure it helped a little. But football is not that complicated that this meeting was the equivalent of discovering the Rosetta Stone.

I am sure most coaches let their players draw plays in the dirt on field ala Charlie Brown. :)

I guess the $250,000 tape system to breakdown opponents that Pat Summitt's staff demonstrated to our clinic 3 years ago is a waste of money. :)

[mcveyrl]

McV:

No smack intended. Sorry if it seemed that way.

All I meant was that your general comments about stopping a good running team's running game or a good passing team's passing game is really missing AppDad's point here. You seemed to misinterpret his "inner workings" comments. It has nothing to do with his underwear. It has more to do with being able to guess what your opponent is apt to do in any given situation.

I was just pointing out that it was harder to stop a team's strong points than you suggest. I also think that a coach who understands how his opponent thinks and makes decisions has a better chance to win the game than someone whose only experience with his opponent is just a bunch of game film. That was the real point that AppDad made that I thought was worthy of more discussion.


Got it. Thanks for the clarification, sorry for the misinterpretation.

But, are we sure the talks between the two teams got in depth to the point of discussing tendencies to such a degree that it would be that helpful?

Do ASU fans really think that they are so superior to the rest of FCS that only teams that have had a personal meeting with their coach will have a chance to beat them? If so, maybe they should get ahold of the athletic department. Threaten to pull your donations!! If Moore would stop meeting and talking with other coaches (Jerry's Kids??:p ), this thing will be a lot easier for you all!!

Also, it seems like ASU fans don't think that it runs both ways. Doesn't ASU pick up the same type of info on JMU, or does everybody sit in a classroom while Coach Moore lectures?

[james_lawfirm]

Got it. Thanks for the clarification, sorry for the misinterpretation.

But, are we sure the talks between the two teams got in depth to the point of discussing tendencies to such a degree that it would be that helpful?

Do ASU fans really think that they are so superior to the rest of FCS that only teams that have had a personal meeting with their coach will have a chance to beat them? If so, maybe they should get ahold of the athletic department. Threaten to pull your donations!! If Moore would stop meeting and talking with other coaches (Jerry's Kids??:p ), this thing will be a lot easier for you all!!

Also, it seems like ASU fans don't think that it runs both ways. Doesn't ASU pick up the same type of info on JMU, or does everybody sit in a classroom while Coach Moore lectures?


It seems to me that the brilliance of Coach Moore's actions is that he stands just as much to gain from the other coach as he imparts. I know the natural tendency might be to hold your cards close to your vest. It seems that (not sharing info) may be the norm with most college football coaches. The moral of the story here is that in order to gain from others' experience, one must be willing to share your own experiences. And, this is true in business as well as college football; in the college classroom, this stuff is called "Organizational Behavior".

Further, I don't think they sit down and discuss "tendencies". I think by getting to know each other, they can take each other's measure and anticipate the next move. For ex., Wofford's Coach Ayers is apt to run any play at anytime for any reason regardless of what down it is. When a team plays Wofford you must expect the unexpected call. Coach Moore has seen enough of that through the years. JMU's Coach seemed more aggressive than Coach Moore in a lot of ways (obviously). When you play ASU, there probably won't be much razzle-dazzle. Just straightforward football. These are the tendencies to which I was referring.

[mcveyrl]

It seems to me that the brilliance of Coach Moore's actions is that he stands just as much to gain from the other coach as he imparts. I know the natural tendency might be to hold your cards close to your vest. It seems that (not sharing info) may be the norm with most college football coaches. The moral of the story here is that in order to gain from others' experience, one must be willing to share your own experiences. And, this is true in business as well as college football; in the college classroom, this stuff is called "Organizational Behavior".

Further, I don't think they sit down and discuss "tendencies". I think by getting to know each other, they can take each other's measure and anticipate the next move. For ex., Wofford's Coach Ayers is apt to run any play at anytime for any reason regardless of what down it is. When a team plays Wofford you must expect the unexpected call. Coach Moore has seen enough of that through the years. JMU's Coach seemed more aggressive than Coach Moore in a lot of ways (obviously). When you play ASU, there probably won't be much razzle-dazzle. Just straightforward football. These are the tendencies to which I was referring.


Tendencies you've picked up by watching games, right?

Wait a minute...is this Coach Moore??

I guess what GF and I were pointing out is that these meetings, while obviously beneficial to both sides, don't really give either coach a big enough advantage to say that they ultimately influenced a game for either side. So, I think to say that the reason you think JMU will be the toughest opponent you face in the playoffs is because MM and Coach Moore met is not entirely accurate.

[Appdad]

I guess what GF and I were pointing out is that these meetings, while obviously beneficial to both sides, don't really give either coach a big enough advantage to say that they ultimately influenced a game for either side. So, I think to say that the reason you think JMU will be the toughest opponent you face in the playoffs is because MM and Coach Moore met is not entirely accurate.

I didn't say anything about App wins because the remaining coaches haven't been to Boone. I was saying that you can't compare performances against common opponents given the extra information these coaches gleaned.

Addressing what JMU and NAU learned. They copied our offense. That takes a lot of thought and effort to change a college offense in one season.

I do not know what the future holds. I cannot predict the future. I do not know who will win. I don't know what RU will do Friday. All I meant to do was to inject that JMU, NAU and WC have more knowledge about us than the average coach will be able to get in 3 days of preparing for us.

JMU played us the year before. The coaches got together. JMU changes their offense to the spread and we meet again this year. NAU's coach comes to Boone for an exended period to learn our offense and installs it. By running the same type offenses both have at least 11 weeks knowledge of what works with it and against it and what holes are exposed in defenses against it.:)

Good luck to all this weekend.:)

[Freightliner]

xrulesx Freightliner's Record xrulesx


SLC OOC: 24-8
SLC Head to Head: 23-5
Playoffs: 8-4 (1-3 last week xoopsx)
Overall: 55-17

My Picks for this week

Delaware vs. Southern Illinois
Richmond vs. Appalachian State

[appstate38]

While everyone has had good things/points to make about the semi's I figure I would throw in myxtwocentsx.

First off, The Hens will win over SIU because of a balanced offense, experience QB and tough running back. I don't know much about the WR's but they seem to be talented enough to catch those lasers that Flacco likes to throw. SIU has their own share of weapons but I think if you match talent on talent UD wins by 14. 38-24


Apps have seen everybody's best shot all year long, so the Spiders rolling into Boone won't be any different. While ASU's defense has been bad at times, I think they make enough plays against a tough ground game to win it. They will find a way to force some turnovers and make Richmond play a style they aren't comfortable with. Offensively Richmond IMO has not seen the speed that ASU will play with. They will have to defend the whole field and that will be a tall order for the Spiders. ASU 35 - Richmond 20

[Grizo406]

If Wofford was still in the hunt, all of my support would have been with them.

I'd love to see both Delaware and ASU in the National Championship game.

[Henwatcher]

ASU 38 UR 31
SIU 49 UD 28

[james_lawfirm]

Tendencies you've picked up by watching games, right?

Wait a minute...is this Coach Moore??

I guess what GF and I were pointing out is that these meetings, while obviously beneficial to both sides, don't really give either coach a big enough advantage to say that they ultimately influenced a game for either side. So, I think to say that the reason you think JMU will be the toughest opponent you face in the playoffs is because MM and Coach Moore met is not entirely accurate.


Actually, I agree that these meetings do not give either participant an advantage that they would not already have against each other. However, they do give the participants an advantage against non-participants. See AppDad's post herein.

But, I disagree with your last sentence. I do believe the info sharing is probably the main reason JMU was App's toughest foe in the playoffs. I reserve the right to retract this statement if ASU loses one of the next two games. But for now, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Saluki_man]

I am surprised to see some of the large margins perdicted in the UD/SIU game. This game is going to come down to the last possession. Turnovers are going to be magnified more than usual in this game and SIU seems to force more of them than Delaware. I know I'm going to be a homer, but SIU wins this 28-25.

Oh by the way, Delaware may want to leave Newark a little early, bad weather is expected on Friday through the weekend. Which may make Delaware a little road weary. Carbondale is not an easy place to get to in bad weather, especially taking the shortest route from St. Louis.

As for the ASU/Richmond game, I expect this one to be the blow out. ASU should win this one 35-14.

[UDChE89]

I am surprised to see some of the large margins perdicted in the UD/SIU game. This game is going to come down to the last possession. Turnovers are going to be magnified more than usual in this game and SIU seems to force more of them than Delaware. I know I'm going to be a homer, but SIU wins this 28-25.

Oh by the way, Delaware may want to leave Newark a little early, bad weather is expected on Friday through the weekend. Which may make Delaware a little road weary. Carbondale is not an easy place to get to in bad weather, especially taking the shortest route from St. Louis.

As for the ASU/Richmond game, I expect this one to be the blow out. ASU should win this one 35-14.

Delaware's flying out Thursday.. it's the quiet day before exams start at UD.. shouldn't be impacted by weather

[Saluki_man]

Delaware's flying out Thursday.. it's the quiet day before exams start at UD.. shouldn't be impacted by weather

Ahh.. They get to enjoy the wonderful sights of Carbondale.:D

[Saint3333]

Also, it hasn't been since 1999 that both semifinal home teams have won their semifinal game, so homefield advantage, at this point in the season, starts to matter less and less. December football at its finest this weekend, here's my take.


Nice stat. But it has happened 7 times in 29 years. However both road teams haven't won in the semis since 1997 and only twice since the inception of the playoffs (1978, the first year was the only other time).

Your picks seem go against a trend, as 69% of the time one road and one home team win the semifinal game. Therefore do we really need to play the Saturday game? With this knowledge maybe the UD fans will be pulling for ASU on Fridayxthumbsupx.

[CharlestonAppFan]

As for the ASU/Richmond game, I expect this one to be the blow out. ASU should win this one 35-14.

Citdog.......where are you at my friend? xwhistlex xwhistlex

2) If any poster really thinks a team is going to beat another by 3 TD's....you will be banished to the bathroom in Crapsville with our resident southern Citdog, while he urinates on your leg, looking you directly in the eyes and proclaiming how the South got screwed xnonox xnonox

[ASUMountaineer]

Citdog.......where are you at my friend? xwhistlex xwhistlex

2) If any poster really thinks a team is going to beat another by 3 TD's....you will be banished to the bathroom in Crapsville with our resident southern Citdog, while he urinates on your leg, looking you directly in the eyes and proclaiming how the South got screwed xnonox xnonox

Very classic! xthumbsupx Get him CitDog.

[skinny_uncle]

Ahh.. They get to enjoy the wonderful sights of Carbondale.:D
http://www.studyusa.com/images/siu.jpg

[Hoyadestroya85]

Campus Lake!
I had some heated Frisbee golf matches at that place...

[Black and Gold Express]

Citdog.......where are you at my friend? xwhistlex xwhistlex

2) If any poster really thinks a team is going to beat another by 3 TD's....you will be banished to the bathroom in Crapsville with our resident southern Citdog, while he urinates on your leg, looking you directly in the eyes and proclaiming how the South got screwed xnonox xnonox

I have to defend this pick for a moment. Let me state clear that I do not think this will be the case, but...

I think most people on here would say that UR's offense is the weakest of the four remaining teams. Not that they suck, but they have the least dynamic offense left. On the flip side, ASU's might be the best offense left (you could make a case that they and Delaware are neck and neck, I would not argue that). Few people doubt ASU can put up points like they have all season. In fact, most of the lower score predicitions I have read for ASU involve it being because UR's offense ate the clock JMU-style, not that the UR defense held ASU out of the end zone.

Now IF ASU's run defense shuts down Richmond, there is little to suggest they will score much. They certainly are not going to outdo ASU's pass defense by going to the air.

It's not likely, but possible, that this could be a three-score win for ASU. Of the two blowout possibilities, it certainly is the more likely one to play out. Again, neither is likely, just to make clear.

Also, 21 points is not that much. A game could go a long time as a 10-14 point game, and late in the game the trailing team has to take more chances, which leads to more opportunities for a big play by the defense. I certainly could see the game being tight until late, and such a scenario playing out where Corey picks off yet another pass late and takes it all or most of the way back. It's not like we have not seen that happen many times...

[CharlestonAppFan]

I have to defend this pick for a moment. Let me state clear that I do not think this will be the case, but...

I think most people on here would say that UR's offense is the weakest of the four remaining teams. Not that they suck, but they have the least dynamic offense left. On the flip side, ASU's might be the best offense left (you could make a case that they and Delaware are neck and neck, I would not argue that). Few people doubt ASU can put up points like they have all season. In fact, most of the lower score predicitions I have read for ASU involve it being because UR's offense ate the clock JMU-style, not that the UR defense held ASU out of the end zone.

Now IF ASU's run defense shuts down Richmond, there is little to suggest they will score much. They certainly are not going to outdo ASU's pass defense by going to the air.

It's not likely, but possible, that this could be a three-score win for ASU. Of the two blowout possibilities, it certainly is the more likely one to play out. Again, neither is likely, just to make clear.

Also, 21 points is not that much. A game could go a long time as a 10-14 point game, and late in the game the trailing team has to take more chances, which leads to more opportunities for a big play by the defense. I certainly could see the game being tight until late, and such a scenario playing out where Corey picks off yet another pass late and takes it all or most of the way back. It's not like we have not seen that happen many times...


Well....at least you made a clear argument for this casexnodx . While ASU's offense is the most dynamic along with Delaware's, I think that Richmond may have the best defense with the remaining teams. Ours is not, neither Delaware's, and SIU and Richmond can go neck and neck for that matter.

IF we can stop their RB, our pass defense will step up like last week. Now, our special teams........xwhistlex It's going to depend on how they approach our spread offense. Richmond contained Wofford and that's no small task, evidenced by most of the teams they played. I can see maybe a 10 point spread, but I'm not sure more than that.

Good points though B & G....I love reading well thought out arguments.

[Houndawg]

I have to defend this pick for a moment. Let me state clear that I do not think this will be the case, but...

I think most people on here would say that UR's offense is the weakest of the four remaining teams. Not that they suck, but they have the least dynamic offense left. On the flip side, ASU's might be the best offense left (you could make a case that they and Delaware are neck and neck, I would not argue that). Few people doubt ASU can put up points like they have all season. In fact, most of the lower score predicitions I have read for ASU involve it being because UR's offense ate the clock JMU-style, not that the UR defense held ASU out of the end zone.

Now IF ASU's run defense shuts down Richmond, there is little to suggest they will score much. They certainly are not going to outdo ASU's pass defense by going to the air.

It's not likely, but possible, that this could be a three-score win for ASU. Of the two blowout possibilities, it certainly is the more likely one to play out. Again, neither is likely, just to make clear.

Also, 21 points is not that much. A game could go a long time as a 10-14 point game, and late in the game the trailing team has to take more chances, which leads to more opportunities for a big play by the defense. I certainly could see the game being tight until late, and such a scenario playing out where Corey picks off yet another pass late and takes it all or most of the way back. It's not like we have not seen that happen many times...

Good post. I agree that a 21 point game can be much closer than the score and that a seven point game may not be as close as the score. Umass/SIU actually resembled your scenario. With 6:52 left in the 3rd SIU was ahead 34-13 when they elected to go prevent and trade clock time for yardage. I've always hated that strategy even though it worked this time, mostly because SIU had the ball for 10:00 of the 4th qtr.

[Black and Gold Express]

Well....at least you made a clear argument for this casexnodx . While ASU's offense is the most dynamic along with Delaware's, I think that Richmond may have the best defense with the remaining teams. Ours is not, neither Delaware's, and SIU and Richmond can go neck and neck for that matter.

IF we can stop their RB, our pass defense will step up like last week. Now, our special teams........xwhistlex It's going to depend on how they approach our spread offense. Richmond contained Wofford and that's no small task, evidenced by most of the teams they played. I can see maybe a 10 point spread, but I'm not sure more than that.

Good points though B & G....I love reading well thought out arguments.

I don't disagree with you, I think it will be a one score game most of the way. I would add though that UR's defense was lit up by Delaware (and vice versa), so we have a little proof to show that the Spiders are not the second coming of the Steel Curtain, or even the ASU defenses of the last two years.

This is the inherent problem in picking these games. There's so few common opponents that we really don't know how they stack up. I did not watch the UR/WOF game, only saw the box scores. I did hear it was a really ugly game on both sides, including a lot of turnovers by Wofford. Many people seem to be saying that was more Wofford screwing up than UR making plays, but it's all biased so who knows. I do know this, had we gotten that many turnovers by Wofford in our game, we'd have blown them out. I'm still not sold at all that UR can keep us out of the end zone with their defense. They'll have to control the clock like JMU to do it.

[Bettina90]

I don't disagree with you, I think it will be a one score game most of the way. I would add though that UR's defense was lit up by Delaware (and vice versa), so we have a little proof to show that the Spiders are not the second coming of the Steel Curtain, or even the ASU defenses of the last two years.


Delaware had 31 on the board as time expired but 38 on the board a second or 5 after. At home. If and when you play them you will realize that that is not a terrible number. And, as I mentioned before, a good pocket passer with a strong arm that can throws lasers like Flacco is UR's achilles, particularly with the absence of Sherman Logan for the pass rush. So if Edwards can throw those lasers like Flacco you are probably in good shape. If not, he's gonna have to use his feet, which is where the game will be won or lost, IMO.

[Black and Gold Express]

Delaware had 31 on the board as time expired but 38 on the board a second or 5 after. At home. If and when you play them you will realize that that is not a terrible number. And, as I mentioned before, a good pocket passer with a strong arm that can throws lasers like Flacco is UR's achilles, particularly with the absence of Sherman Logan for the pass rush. So if Edwards can throw those lasers like Flacco you are probably in good shape. If not, he's gonna have to use his feet, which is where the game will be won or lost, IMO.

Two points:

Edwards is a much better passer in terms of arm-strength than people give him credit for. He has good accuracy in teh shorter timimg routes. His deep ball needs some work, many times he's been just off in terms of hitting receivers in stride. You really, really don't want Edwards to be running a lot. No really, you don't.

[ASUdrummer]

Good thing for us Armanti is not too bad of a passer either then. (125/191 for 1568 yds) Combine that with his 1186 rushing yds and 28 total TDs and you've got the guy who you really just don't want on the field period. xthumbsupx (BTW: AE has only played 9 1/2 games...so take that into account if you're going to start comparing stats with QBs that have played 13)

[Bettina90]

Two points:

Edwards is a much better passer in terms of arm-strength than people give him credit for. He has good accuracy in teh shorter timimg routes. His deep ball needs some work, many times he's been just off in terms of hitting receivers in stride. You really, really don't want Edwards to be running a lot. No really, you don't.






I've tried to say it out here, but don't be shocked if UR can do a decent job on him. Mobile QBs have not really been their problem. Santos was pretty much forced to pass-only against them the last couple years, if I recall correctly.

[Black and Gold Express]

I've tried to say it out here, but don't be shocked if UR can do a decent job on him. Mobile QBs have not really been their problem. Santos was pretty much forced to pass-only against them the last couple years, if I recall correctly.

If they contained him, they'd be the first team to do so. Even Michigan couldn't manage it. Wofford I guess did a little by reinjuring his shoulder, but he was maybe 60% and rusty at best going into that game. A lot of people (me included) thought Edwards should have sat out for that game beforehand. This game he's 100% and in full gear.

Someday someone will truly contain him. But to this point nobody has been able to, and you know they gameplan for him. The longer it goes, the more I come to see just how special a talent for this level he has been so far. And he's got two years left to go.

Speaking of, I still am good on a certain bet Cap'n Cat made with me regarding Armanti's staying four years. xrotatehx

[Skjellyfetti]

Santos was pretty much forced to pass-only against them the last couple years, if I recall correctly.

Santos also rushed for 246 yards on 111 attempts (2.2 yard average, long run of 30 yards) compared to Edwards' 1186 on 188 attempts (6.3 yard average, long run of 80 yards). Just saying...

[APPride]

Good thing for us Armanti is not too bad of a passer either then. (125/191 for 1568 yds) Combine that with his 1186 rushing yds and 28 total TDs and you've got the guy who you really just don't want on the field period. xthumbsupx (BTW: AE has only played 9 1/2 games...so take that into account if you're going to start comparing stats with QBs that have played 13)

only 432 yds for 2nd straight 2,000/1,000 yd. season xbowx xbowx

[james_lawfirm]

So if Edwards can throw those lasers like Flacco you are probably in good shape. If not, he's gonna have to use his feet, which is where the game will be won or lost, IMO.

So, we win. Is there any reason to play this game? I mean really.

[Bettina90]

If they contained him, they'd be the first team to do so. Even Michigan couldn't manage it.



How many Michigan games have you watched in the last 6 or 8 years? How many QBs in a spread offense have just BLISTERED them unmercifully? From Vince Young to Troy Smith to Dennis Dixon to Armanti Edwards to whoever happens to be playing QB for Northwestern at the time.



The Michigan game is not a good barometer. And neither is the rest of the SoCon. Wofford might be better, but the injury makes it tough.

[james_lawfirm]

The Michigan game is not a good barometer. And neither is the rest of the SoCon. Wofford might be better, but the injury makes it tough.

Are you saying Richmond is better than Wofford? xeekx xrotatehx xrotatehx

Well, yeah, I guess you are. xbowx xbowx

CAN WE JUST PLAY SOME FOOTBALL?

And, for all you UR fans, WELCOME TO THE ROCK!

[gasouthern01]

Santos also rushed for 246 yards on 111 attempts (2.2 yard average, long run of 30 yards) compared to Edwards' 1186 on 188 attempts (6.3 yard average, long run of 80 yards). Just saying...

yeah if you think Santos is a mobile QB than your head would explode if you had to face Jayson Foster.

[Black and Gold Express]

yeah if you think Santos is a mobile QB than your head would explode if you had to face Jayson Foster.

We're talking quarterbacks, not tailbacks that get the ball hiked to them every down... xsmiley_wix

[gasouthern01]

We're talking quarterbacks, not tailbacks that get the ball hiked to them every down... xsmiley_wix

haa very true. The guy was sick to watch play, it's unfortunate that he had to go through 3 coaches in 4 years. Good luck to Appy this weekend, keep that championship in the Socon!

[URMite]

We're talking quarterbacks, not tailbacks that get the ball hiked to them every down... xsmiley_wix

Sounds like a QB we had in a final game one year. We lost all our QBs to injury and started our WR. He kept dropping 10 yds back to pass and then would rush for 15 yds instead. He had a rediculous 1st half, rushing for something like 180 yds, and only passing or handing off on about 5 plays.
xlolx

[mountain_man]

I've tried to say it out here, but don't be shocked if UR can do a decent job on him. Mobile QBs have not really been their problem. Santos was pretty much forced to pass-only against them the last couple years, if I recall correctly.

i can promise you that you haven't seen anything like AE. you all may eat him up, but you would be the first.

[Saluki_man]

Citdog.......where are you at my friend? xwhistlex xwhistlex

2) If any poster really thinks a team is going to beat another by 3 TD's....you will be banished to the bathroom in Crapsville with our resident southern Citdog, while he urinates on your leg, looking you directly in the eyes and proclaiming how the South got screwed xnonox xnonox

Let me go explain myself and why I think this is going to be a 21 point victory. I don't think Richmond's deffense matches up very well against the spread offense of ASU. I know they have seen some very good QBs in the CAA, but Edwards is a special player. I have a feeling that he will take over this game, both running and passing. ASU's deffense has gotten better as the season has gone along and Richmond seems to play a similar style JMU (heavy doses of running the ball with some play action).

I could be very wrong in this case, but I just have allot of respect for what ASU is doing right now. Just for a matter of fact, if it was a SIU/ASU final, I would have to go with ASU. I think ASU is just playing that well.

[ASUdrummer]

Thanks more than kind of you Saluki_man and very much appreciated. I just hope it works out that way! Best of luck to you guys on holding down the home field advantage against an electric Delaware team. Should be two great games!

[unicat87]

I almost hate to predict against my conference, the Gateway, but I was quite impressed with Flacco, Cuff, and the rest of the Hens gang in the UNI-Dome last Saturday, Delaware 38, SIU 31.

I am unfamiliar with Richmond, but I think ASU wants the shot at a three-peat pretty bad, so Appy 31, Richmond 27.

The Chattanooga matchup in the final would then be: Appy 24, DE 10.

Good luck and best wishes to all the teams, play well, keep the injuries to a minimum and have safe travels back home after the games. -unicat87

[WyomingGrizFan]

I'd give Richmond a closer shot at Appalachian State than what Eastern Washington finally ended up with. A lot closer than 35 - 24. I'd go with Delaware versus Richmond in the NC.

[MacThor]

Wow, a lot of comments about Richmond's style from people who have obviously not watched them play. The legitimate knock on Clawson (deserving CAA coach-of-the-year) is that he is too pass-happy. If he didn't have Hightower and Ward he'd be FCS's Andy Reid. He loves to throw on first down even when protecting a lead. A big part of UR's success this year has come from him keeping this in check.

EKU stacked the box -- even the FS was less than 10 yards from the LOS -- so he threw to set up the run. Then Hightower and Vaughan cut loose. Wofford never unstacked the box, so Ward carved them up consistently on third and long.

[MacThor]

As for Richmond's defense, admittedly it's against very good QB's that they struggle. Flacco made plays, Villanova's QB made some unbelievable plays, and Towson's QB was just unconscious in that game. So the matchup against AE is a big concern. When I saw EKU's QB's first few ugly pass attempts , I knew the game would not be close.

UR has a very "bend-but-don't break" defense. Statistically they don't look as good as they are, because they do give up yards and first downs. They toughen up in the red zone and get a lot of TO's and forced FG attempts. Their scoring defense is very good -- even better if you subtract the 18 points UD scored in five OTs (or 25 points after the clock reached 0:00, depending on your POV ;) ).

Richmond is a "we'll trade 7 for 3" team -- it's worked all year.

[MacThor]

Oh - predictions -- that's the point of this thread.

The ASU-UR game will be very close. OT is a real possibility. I have watched a few ASU games this year and every UR game televised or at home. There is just no way this is a blowout. Richmond's style doesn't allow for it, and ASU hasn't blown out any playoff-caliber teams this year. If UR has a less-than-touchdown lead and ASU has the ball with under two minutes to play, I will be very nervous. UR tends to go into the "prevent" defense -- awful at any level but especially when a first down stops the clock. I predict ASU's home-field advantage is the difference, for the 3rd week in a row - they win a squeaker in the low 30s. If the Spiders make the final it will make my day, but I refuse to expect it.

I have not seen SIU play except for last week's game, so it would be unfair for me to predict that game --- unlike some ASU/SIU fans who discount a UR team they've never seen. Right now I think UD is playing the best football in the playoffs. The win at the UNI-Dome was very impressive after a slow start.

[Houndawg]

Oh - predictions -- that's the point of this thread.

The ASU-UR game will be very close. OT is a real possibility. I have watched a few ASU games this year and every UR game televised or at home. There is just no way this is a blowout. Richmond's style doesn't allow for it, and ASU hasn't blown out any playoff-caliber teams this year. If UR has a less-than-touchdown lead and ASU has the ball with under two minutes to play, I will be very nervous. UR tends to go into the "prevent" defense -- awful at any level but especially when a first down stops the clock. I predict ASU's home-field advantage is the difference, for the 3rd week in a row - they win a squeaker in the low 30s. If the Spiders make the final it will make my day, but I refuse to expect it.

I have not seen SIU play except for last week's game, so it would be unfair for me to predict that game --- unlike some ASU/SIU fans who discount a UR team they've never seen. Right now I think UD is playing the best football in the playoffs. The win at the UNI-Dome was very impressive after a slow start.

Nice predictions.xrolleyesx

[Black and Gold Express]

Wow, a lot of comments about Richmond's style from people who have obviously not watched them play. The legitimate knock on Clawson (deserving CAA coach-of-the-year) is that he is too pass-happy. If he didn't have Hightower and Ward he'd be FCS's Andy Reid. He loves to throw on first down even when protecting a lead. A big part of UR's success this year has come from him keeping this in check.

Please, please, please pass the ball all night long UR. I'm begging you to do that. xprayx xprayx xprayx xprayx

[Skjellyfetti]

Wow, a lot of comments about Richmond's style from people who have obviously not watched them play. The legitimate knock on Clawson (deserving CAA coach-of-the-year) is that he is too pass-happy. If he didn't have Hightower and Ward he'd be FCS's Andy Reid. He loves to throw on first down even when protecting a lead. A big part of UR's success this year has come from him keeping this in check.

EKU stacked the box -- even the FS was less than 10 yards from the LOS -- so he threw to set up the run. Then Hightower and Vaughan cut loose. Wofford never unstacked the box, so Ward carved them up consistently on third and long.

I'm still convinced we have to stack the box and key on Hightower. You guys average 167 yards passing a game. I can live with that, especially since it will slow the game down. And Hightower is also your second leading receiver.

[MacThor]

Nice predictions.xrolleyesx

Well, I laid out my reasoning and I didn't homerize, picking ASU by 3 or less.

Being unfamiliar with SIU I was uncomfortable in making a pick but if I must, I'll say UD by a touchdown.

[LacesOut]

ASU 27
UR 20

UD 34
SIU 24

[Bettina90]

Miller Lite: 13
Marlboro Lite: 8
Rumple Mintz: 4
Me: 0


Regardless of the outcome.

[URMite]

Wow, a lot of comments about Richmond's style from people who have obviously not watched them play. The legitimate knock on Clawson (deserving CAA coach-of-the-year) is that he is too pass-happy. If he didn't have Hightower and Ward he'd be FCS's Andy Reid. He loves to throw on first down even when protecting a lead. A big part of UR's success this year has come from him keeping this in check.

EKU stacked the box -- even the FS was less than 10 yards from the LOS -- so he threw to set up the run. Then Hightower and Vaughan cut loose. Wofford never unstacked the box, so Ward carved them up consistently on third and long.

I agree about Clawson, we just don't have the personnel. He would prefer a long ball passing game, with his only running back being Brian Westbrook.

[URMite]

As for Richmond's defense, admittedly it's against very good QB's that they struggle. Flacco made plays, Villanova's QB made some unbelievable plays, and Towson's QB was just unconscious in that game. So the matchup against AE is a big concern. When I saw EKU's QB's first few ugly pass attempts , I knew the game would not be close.

UR has a very "bend-but-don't break" defense. Statistically they don't look as good as they are, because they do give up yards and first downs. They toughen up in the red zone and get a lot of TO's and forced FG attempts. Their scoring defense is very good -- even better if you subtract the 18 points UD scored in five OTs (or 25 points after the clock reached 0:00, depending on your POV ;) ).

Richmond is a "we'll trade 7 for 3" team -- it's worked all year.

That worked better the first half the year, when it was "we'll trade a FG for an 80yd return on the next play'

[URMite]

Please, please, please pass the ball all night long UR. I'm begging you to do that. xprayx xprayx xprayx xprayx

Almost all our passes are the 8-15 yd variety to get a first down or pull people a few yards off the LOS. We haven't passed as a main attack all year. Sometimes we take 3-4 long shots, rarely with success, just to extend the D a little further.

[Bettina90]

That worked better the first half the year, when it was "we'll trade a FG for an 80yd return on the next play'



HaHa. I like that. Maybe Rogers is due for a big game tonight.

[URMite]

HaHa. I like that. Maybe Rogers is due for a big game tonight.

Since he sat out the game with the hand injury, he hasn't broken one past the opponents 40. I'm not sure what is wrong. I know teams are giving him less opportunities and nothing wrong with a 50yd return but still...he was routinely doing it twice a game before that.