STATS Poll: 9/11/23

[kdinva]

https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/09/big-sky-has-a-national-high-six-teams-ranked-in-stats-perform-fcs-top-25-poll/

1. South Dakota State (2-0), 1,396 points (52 of 56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (2-0), 1,335 (3)
3. Montana State (1-1), 1,263
4. William & Mary (2-0, 1-0 CAA), 1,208
5. Idaho (2-0), 1,141 (1)
6. Holy Cross (1-1), 1,092
7. Furman (1-1), 989
8. Sacramento State (2-0), 986
9. Weber State (2-0), 926
10. UIW (1-1), 906
11. New Hampshire (1-1), 830
12. Montana (2-0), 764
13. Southeast Missouri (1-1, 1-0 Big South-OVC), 666
14. North Dakota (2-0), 620
15. Southern Illinois (2-0), 552
16. UC Davis (1-1), 540
17. North Carolina Central (2-0), 467
18. Samford (1-1, 0-1 SoCon), 390
19. Southeastern Louisiana (0-2), 369
20. Mercer (2-1), 264
21. Rhode Island (1-1, 1-0 CAA), 245
22. Delaware (1-1, 1-0 CAA), 241
23. Florida A&M (2-0, 1-0 SWAC), 150
24. Villanova (2-0), 135
25. Youngstown State (1-1), 105

Dropped Out: Northern Iowa (21)
Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Gardner-Webb (1-1) 88; Central Arkansas (1-1) 83; Western Carolina (1-1, 0-1 SoCon) 81; Northern Iowa (0-2) 72; Abilene Christian (2-0) 51; UT Martin (1-1) 44; Morgan State (1-1) 43; Eastern Kentucky (0-2) 36; Tarleton (2-0) 28; Fordham (2-1) 25; UAlbany (1-2) 19; Jackson State (2-1, 0-1 SWAC) 13; Yale (0-0) 11; Eastern Washington (0-2) 9; Campbell (1-1, 0-1 CAA) 8; Illinois State (2-0, 1-0 MVFC) 5

[crusader11]

https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/09/big-sky-has-a-national-high-six-teams-ranked-in-stats-perform-fcs-top-25-poll/

1. South Dakota State (2-0), 1,396 points (52 of 56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (2-0), 1,335 (3)
3. Montana State (1-1), 1,263
4. William & Mary (2-0, 1-0 CAA), 1,208
5. Idaho (2-0), 1,141 (1)
6. Holy Cross (1-1), 1,092
7. Furman (1-1), 989
8. Sacramento State (2-0), 986
9. Weber State (2-0), 926
10. UIW (1-1), 906
11. New Hampshire (1-1), 830
12. Montana (2-0), 764
13. Southeast Missouri (1-1, 1-0 Big South-OVC), 666
14. North Dakota (2-0), 620
15. Southern Illinois (2-0), 552
16. UC Davis (1-1), 540
17. North Carolina Central (2-0), 467
18. Samford (1-1, 0-1 SoCon), 390
19. Southeastern Louisiana (0-2), 369
20. Mercer (2-1), 264
21. Rhode Island (1-1, 1-0 CAA), 245
22. Delaware (1-1, 1-0 CAA), 241
23. Florida A&M (2-0, 1-0 SWAC), 150
24. Villanova (2-0), 135
25. Youngstown State (1-1), 105

Dropped Out: Northern Iowa (21)
Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Gardner-Webb (1-1) 88; Central Arkansas (1-1) 83; Western Carolina (1-1, 0-1 SoCon) 81; Northern Iowa (0-2) 72; Abilene Christian (2-0) 51; UT Martin (1-1) 44; Morgan State (1-1) 43; Eastern Kentucky (0-2) 36; Tarleton (2-0) 28; Fordham (2-1) 25; UAlbany (1-2) 19; Jackson State (2-1, 0-1 SWAC) 13; Yale (0-0) 11; Eastern Washington (0-2) 9; Campbell (1-1, 0-1 CAA) 8; Illinois State (2-0, 1-0 MVFC) 5

STUPID STUPID STUPID

[Mocs123]

Yeah, that's obviously not reflective of what happened on the field on Saturday. I assume that's because Samford has a name as a team that's normally good, and WCU has spent a lot of time as a bottom feeder in the SoCon. I'm sure that will change as the season goes on as Bell's building a good program in Cullowhee. I just hope you get a little setback on October 7th!

[caribbeanhen]

STUPID STUPID STUPID

Indeed it is

[SeattleCat]

Indeed it is
I think they got in about at 25 on mine. xeyebrowx

[KPSUL]

I personally had WCU in, and ahead of Samford. However, I can see how a voter could reasonably want to wait a week of two before putting WCU in their Top 25. During 2019 and 2022 I was very cautious about putting UNH in the top 25 and then moving them up as they were coming off losing seasons. I think where to rank Samford was a tougher choice.

[caribbeanhen]

I personally had WCU in, and ahead of Samford. However, I can see how a voter could reasonably want to wait a week of two before putting WCU in their Top 25. During 2019 and 2022 I was very cautious about putting UNH in the top 25 and then moving them up as they were coming off losing seasons. I think where to rank Samford was a tougher choice.

if WCU not in yet ok, but after that game Samford shouldn’t be in either if WCU is not in

[ElCid]

STUPID STUPID STUPID

From just a surface evaluation sure. But even just considering the game day situation a little, this isn't necessarily stupid. It might be. I sure hope everyone realizes that this game lasted like 9 hours due wx delays. Sure it impacts both teams, but I'm not going to overly punish Samford or reward WCU until I see just a smidgen of consistency in a somewhat normal game. I think Samford probably should have dropped a good bit, but automatically below WCU when they weren't ranked at all? As always, one game does not a season make.

[wcugrad95]

Agree one game does not reflect the entire season, and it certainly was a weird day due to the delays. But even Samford fans were saying WCU was whipping them before the delays. Honestly, without a delay Hiers probably doesn’t go back in the game after that hit. Had he not played then maybe you give Samford the benefit of the doubt, but scores and how you play matter. Totally understandable if you don’t rank Western, but hard to fathom you wouldn’t make Samford climb the same kind of hill this is asking Western to climb and put them behind the Cats. It is always easier to stay in polls than crack them in anything other than the AGS poll that tries to objectively looks at actual play and results week in and week out.

[The Cats]

STUPID STUPID STUPID

AGREE AGREE AGREE

[The Cats]

From just a surface evaluation sure. But even just considering the game day situation a little, this isn't necessarily stupid. It might be. I sure hope everyone realizes that this game lasted like 9 hours due wx delays. Sure it impacts both teams, but I'm not going to overly punish Samford or reward WCU until I see just a smidgen of consistency in a somewhat normal game. I think Samford probably should have dropped a good bit, but automatically below WCU when they weren't ranked at all? As always, one game does not a season make.

Good points, until you remember Samford only had one win over a non-DI team under their belt to justify their top ten ranking.

Had Samford lost by only a point or two, I might tend to agree more with you, but replay the game, they were basically dominated the entire game. Also, WCU took a knee their last three snaps on the Samford 25 yard line, to refrain from putting up another score, in the last minute of the game as well...

[ElCid]

Good points, until you remember Samford only had one win over a non-DI team under their belt to justify their top ten ranking.

Had Samford lost by only a point or two, I might tend to agree more with you, but replay the game, they were basically dominated the entire game. Also, WCU took a knee their last three snaps on the Samford 25 yard line, to refrain from putting up another score, in the last minute of the game as well...

No I get it. But before I would go totally crazy, I will wait until I see if WCU stomps EKU. And/or how well Samford hold up against Auburn. Lots of permutations there to include in any trend analysis. Like if WCU gets stomped and Samford beats Auburn. Or WCU stomps but Samford also wins. I only watched about 10 minutes of the game last week. Would have been more, but you know, the weather.

[The Cats]

No I get it. But before I would go totally crazy, I will wait until I see if WCU stomps EKU. And/or how well Samford hold up against Auburn. Lots of permutations there to include in any trend analysis. Like if WCU gets stomped and Samford beats Auburn. Or WCU stomps but Samford also wins. I only watched about 10 minutes of the game last week. Would have been more, but you know, the weather.

Well, the games on ESPN+ replay, I'll invite you to watch, then pontificate.

[ElCid]

Well, the games on ESPN+ replay, I'll invite you to watch, then pontificate.

It's still only one game..... gotta see more.

[Reign of Terrier]

WCU looks good. As already said, one game doesn't make a season, but they cover well and tackle well on defense and we all know their offense is dynamic. The thing for me that would feel totally content ranking them is that they beat a top 10 team (and if SU wasn't top 10 by resume as a quarterfinalist last year, no one is) and one of the biggest obstacles of the socon is in their rear view mirror. I don't know much about EKU, but they'll win at least 4 more games between the military colleges, Chuck south and a bare minimum of one other socon team. I'd put a floor of winning 6 games this year. If they get to 7, they're squarely on the bubble. 8, and they're in. The middle-tier games (Wofford, UTC, ETSU) will be very important for the Catamounts. Sweep them and IMO they'll be in (and they should be favored to do so right now). Take 2 of 3 and steal one against FU/MU and they'll be in too.

All of that is to say that I'd bet western wins at least 7 games and will be squarely in the playoffs picture by mid-October. Rank them.

[Sitting Bull]

On WCU, you can’t just toss out they got smoked 56-13 at Arkansas before the Stamford game. So being only two weeks in, it doesn’t surprise me yet they haven’t really cracked in the top 25. Time will bear that out.

But from just the early start and results, it doesn’t surprise me that the negative here is hitting Samford rather than a rise on WCU.

Granted the loss was at Arkansas but through history, teams in the top 10 often win their FBS game or keep it fairly tight.

[Reign of Terrier]

On WCU, you can’t just toss out they got smoked 56-13 at Arkansas before the Stamford game. So being only two weeks in, it doesn’t surprise me yet they haven’t really cracked in the top 25. Time will bear that out.

But from just the early start and results, it doesn’t surprise me that the negative here is hitting Samford rather than a rise on WCU.

Granted the loss was at Arkansas but through history, teams in the top 10 often win their FBS game or keep it fairly tight.

I think it's totally valid to throw out games against SEC teams. It's not often anymore that FCS teams are competitive with the SEC; they've elevated over the last decade.

So what they lost to Arkansas? So what they may not be a top 10 team? No one is saying they should be top 10. On the top of my head, UC Davis is ranked and they got manhandled by their FBS opponent. And they haven't done anything since like 2018 on the national stage.

If a top 10 MVFC/CAA/Big Sky team lost to an unranked conference opponent who hadn't lost to an FCS opponent, that winning team would be ranked. The fact that people's first impulse is to drop Samford but not elevate Western is another edition of anti-socon bias, which sounds cheesy to say, but is abundantly clear to be a thing in the last 5 years or so.

[BearDownMU]

I personally had WCU in, and ahead of Samford. However, I can see how a voter could reasonably want to wait a week of two before putting WCU in their Top 25. During 2019 and 2022 I was very cautious about putting UNH in the top 25 and then moving them up as they were coming off losing seasons. I think where to rank Samford was a tougher choice.

Reasonably wait a week? Why? To find out that their completely arbitrary guess of how good teams are from the preseason is wrong? Lol. This isn't directed at you, KPSUL, because everyone does this. I just think it's funny that now you actually have on-the-field evidence of who is better than who, but even that woodshedding WCU put on Samford isn't enough to overcome people's wild ass guess (with little to no evidence) as to what order teams are ranked in before the season starts. The whole thing is ridiculous. My opinion is the minute something like WCU-Samford happens, throw away whatever you thought before the pre-season started, cuz it clearly wasn't accurate. Not to mention, Samford has plenty of time to contribute data and drag itself back into the mix. It's not like it's week 10.

[BearDownMU]

Also, what's with all this "need to wait" business? Just rank the teams as to what data you have to make a decision now and then, surprise!, you can change it next week after you have 1 more week of data. Lol. People make this so much harder than it should be.

[FUBeAR]

I think it's totally valid to throw out games against SEC teams. It's not often anymore that FCS teams are competitive with the SEC; they've elevated over the last decade.

So what they lost to Arkansas? So what they may not be a top 10 team? No one is saying they should be top 10. On the top of my head, UC Davis is ranked and they got manhandled by their FBS opponent. And they haven't done anything since like 2018 on the national stage.

If a top 10 MVFC/CAA/Big Sky team lost to an unranked conference opponent who hadn't lost to an FCS opponent, that winning team would be ranked. The fact that people's first impulse is to drop Samford but not elevate Western is another edition of anti-socon bias, which sounds cheesy to say, but is abundantly clear to be a thing in the last 5 years or so.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oK17MaBikIs/TsE4YTOuh_I/AAAAAAAAA7k/oGuE5aLGmmw/s1600/preach+the+word.jpg

[Sitting Bull]

I think it's totally valid to throw out games against SEC teams. It's not often anymore that FCS teams are competitive with the SEC; they've elevated over the last decade.

So what they lost to Arkansas? So what they may not be a top 10 team? No one is saying they should be top 10. On the top of my head, UC Davis is ranked and they got manhandled by their FBS opponent. And they haven't done anything since like 2018 on the national stage.

If a top 10 MVFC/CAA/Big Sky team lost to an unranked conference opponent who hadn't lost to an FCS opponent, that winning team would be ranked. The fact that people's first impulse is to drop Samford but not elevate Western is another edition of anti-socon bias, which sounds cheesy to say, but is abundantly clear to be a thing in the last 5 years or so.

I took a look at last year and interesting that of the 8 FCS winners over FBS opponents, 7 were in the FCS playoffs. The only outlier was Southern Illinois which beat Northwestern. So there’s definitely a link.

WCU has plenty of time to make a good case, it’s so early. My only point was the first game doesn’t support a top 20 placement after just two games.

Playing the odds from last year, we have three with FBS wins so far this year: Idaho, Southern Illinois and Fordham. Just wonder how many of these will be in the upcoming playoffs. Idaho sure looks like a lock. Southern Illinois has such a tough schedule ahead. Fordham is a sleeper. They have a big home game against Holy Cross in October, I would expect they would be favored in their other games. So they could be in the 9-2 range, possibly 10-1 if they got the possible upset against HC.

[Chalupa Batman]

I took a look at last year and interesting that of the 8 FCS winners over FBS opponents, 7 were in the FCS playoffs. The only outlier was Southern Illinois which beat Northwestern. So there’s definitely a link.

WCU has plenty of time to make a good case, it’s so early. My only point was the first game doesn’t support a top 20 placement after just two games.

Playing the odds from last year, we have three with FBS wins so far this year: Idaho, Southern Illinois and Fordham. Just wonder how many of these will be in the upcoming playoffs. Idaho sure looks like a lock. Southern Illinois has such a tough schedule ahead. Fordham is a sleeper. They have a big home game against Holy Cross in October, I would expect they would be favored in their other games. So they could be in the 9-2 range, possibly 10-1 if they got the possible upset against HC.

SIU is probably a lock too. They have 5 games that should be gimmes the rest of the way, which gets them to 7 wins. @SEMO & @Youngstown will be tougher games, but right now I would favor the Salukis in both of them. SDSU & @ NDSU are going to be tall orders, though they do catch SDSU a week after UNI on Hobo Day, and they catch NDSU a week after the Marker game.

[MTfan4life]

https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/09/big-sky-has-a-national-high-six-teams-ranked-in-stats-perform-fcs-top-25-poll/

23. Florida A&M (2-0, 1-0 SWAC), 150



They're definitely not 2-0 having lost last week to one of the worst teams in the FBS. South Florida's only wins in their last 37 games have come against Florida A&M twice, Howard, The Citadel, and Temple.

[OhioHen]

They're definitely not 2-0 having lost last week to one of the worst teams in the FBS. South Florida's only wins in their last 37 games have come against Florida A&M twice, Howard, The Citadel, and Temple.
Same error initially existed on the "coaches" poll but was corrected.

[POD Knows]

Reasonably wait a week? Why? To find out that their completely arbitrary guess of how good teams are from the preseason is wrong? Lol. This isn't directed at you, KPSUL, because everyone does this. I just think it's funny that now you actually have on-the-field evidence of who is better than who, but even that woodshedding WCU put on Samford isn't enough to overcome people's wild ass guess (with little to no evidence) as to what order teams are ranked in before the season starts. The whole thing is ridiculous. My opinion is the minute something like WCU-Samford happens, throw away whatever you thought before the pre-season started, cuz it clearly wasn't accurate. Not to mention, Samford has plenty of time to contribute data and drag itself back into the mix. It's not like it's week 10.
Agree with this, I often have pretty wild swings in my early polls for this reason, I did put WCU in my poll and moved Samford behind them. If the game had even been remotely competitive it might have been different, but it was an ass kicking, and nobody that gets their ass handed to them early on should be ahead of the team that kicked their asses. Samford could very well end up ahead of WCU as the season drags on but you have to twist logic pretty hard to have them ahead of WCU at this stage of the game

[ElCid]

Agree with this, I often have pretty wild swings in my early polls for this reason, I did put WCU in my poll and moved Samford behind them. If the game had even been remotely competitive it might have been different, but it was an ass kicking, and nobody that gets their ass handed to them early on should be ahead of the team that kicked their asses. Samford could very well end up ahead of WCU as the season drags on but you have to twist logic pretty hard to have them ahead of WCU at this stage of the game

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but it is an art form, not a science.

So I have one question in regard to this. Central Arkansas is playing NDSU this week. It's still early in the season. If they beat the Bizon will you rank them higher than the Bizon? Just curious. Don't think you would, but maybe. I wouldn't. One poorly played game doesn't change a teams quality. Or visa versa. Two, probably. Three, most likely. Etc.

[crusader11]

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but it is an art form, not a science.

So I have one question in regard to this. Central Arkansas is playing NDSU this week. It's still early in the season. If they beat the Bizon will you rank them higher than the Bizon? Just curious. Don't think you would, but maybe. I wouldn't. One poorly played game doesn't change a teams quality. Or visa versa. Two, probably. Three, most likely. Etc.

I'd think about ranking UCA above NDSU if that happened.

Early in the season, the body of work isn't there quite yet, so you go with the data points and eye test that's available.

As the season progresses, hard to justify moving one team ahead of another on the basis of one result. Need to look at that game, along with the many other games, as well.

This is why I thought it was so egregious people could vote Samford above WCU. This game wasn't in October after six games had been played.

[POD Knows]

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but it is an art form, not a science.

So I have one question in regard to this. Central Arkansas is playing NDSU this week. It's still early in the season. If they beat the Bizon will you rank them higher than the Bizon? Just curious. Don't think you would, but maybe. I wouldn't. One poorly played game doesn't change a teams quality. Or visa versa. Two, probably. Three, most likely. Etc.Depends on what the loss looks like, if UCA blows them out, I might put UCA in front of them, it is "degrees" I guess. Also, I will state this, Samford is not NDSU, and we can argue what that means till the cows come home. If UCA had beaten a decent team in week 2, I would have probably had them in my top 20, I am not gonna reward people for wins against teams that I have to look up in Google to see who they are.

This week, Montana, who probably has the easiest OOC schedule of any top 25 teams, looks and performs "weak" against Ferris State, I will drop them hard in my poll. I know Ferris State is good at the D2 level and are no pushover but Montana has played nobody to date and a marginal victory should cost them spots in the next poll.

[BearDownMU]

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but it is an art form, not a science.

So I have one question in regard to this. Central Arkansas is playing NDSU this week. It's still early in the season. If they beat the Bizon will you rank them higher than the Bizon? Just curious. Don't think you would, but maybe. I wouldn't. One poorly played game doesn't change a teams quality. Or visa versa. Two, probably. Three, most likely. Etc.

Why couldn't you? If that did happen, UCA would be 2-1 and their loss is 14 points to Oklahoma State. If it's about resume (and not brand or historical bias or conference bias, et. al.) wouldn't UCA have a better resume than NDSU. and technically, wouldn't they have a better resume than just about everyone in FCS? They'd certainly have the best FCS win so far, no? And this is what I hate about modern polling. Is it about how good you think a team is, or what they actually do. I understand it's some mixture of both, I just think pollsters always put more weight on their feeling about how good a team should be, than to actually what's happening on the field. And then their ego requires them to defend their guesses when things get sideways. And that's why polls are screwy. Just reorder the things when you get new data. Late in the year, I get it, because you actually have a body of game data to look at. Early in the year, polls should be chaos IMO. Because people pre-season guesses are just that... Guesses

[Reign of Terrier]

Lord knows, if pollsters and committees aggravate western Carolina this year, they'll have aggravated the entire socon at one point in the last 10-12 years or so. At that point we could secede xlolx

[ElCid]

Also, I will state this, Samford is not NDSU, and we can argue what that means till the cows come home.

That was sort of my point. Should it even matter what teams we are talking about.
At least according the positions I've heard? If it does matter, then it's probably due to one's overall knowledge and perception of the teams involved and not merely the results of one game. I'm just playing devil's advocate on this issue. I wouldn't rank Cent Ark above NDSU if they win for the same reason I didn't rank WCU over Samford. Because right now, today, I still don't think they are a better team. That may change after next week's games. If WCU smokes EKU and Samford gets thumped by Auburn, I can guarantee you WCU will jump a bunch of teams. I've just seen too many teams play above or below their quality level before. For me consistency matters. I guess some people don't like that concept. That's ok.

Too early to worry about it yet anyway. Lots of time to prove or disprove everyone's method. I'm not too concerned about one weeks ranking, in the big scheme of things. Nobody needs to.

[FUBeAR]

Lord knows, if pollsters and committees aggravate western Carolina this year, they'll have aggravated the entire socon at one point in the last 10-12 years or so. At that point we could secede xlolx
FUBeAR has advocated for exactly that. Hook up with the SunBelt and the Southland maybe and the SWAC & MEAC and create some kind of post-season - Championship Series - ala The Celebration Bowl - and tell the useless NCAA to FU All the Time.

[crusader11]

Because right now, today, I still don't think they are a better team.

This is something I struggle to come to terms with.

While you THINK Samford is better than WCU, WCU dismantled Samford on the field. Shouldn't that actual on-the-field evidence PROVE WCU is better than Samford today?

There's nothing to interpret here.

[OhioHen]

This is something I struggle to come to terms with.

While you THINK Samford is better than WCU, WCU dismantled Samford on the field. Shouldn't that actual on-the-field evidence PROVE WCU is better than Samford today?

There's nothing to interpret here.
It proves that WCU was better than Samford ON SATURDAY. It does not prove that WCU is better than Samford TODAY.
Look at Week 1 of the NFL. The Lions beat the Chiefs on opening night (better on the day). How many of us believe the Lions are BETTER than the Chiefs?

[crusader11]

It proves that WCU was better than Samford ON SATURDAY. It does not prove that WCU is better than Samford TODAY.
Look at Week 1 of the NFL. The Lions beat the Chiefs on opening night (better on the day). How many of us believe the Lions are BETTER than the Chiefs?

Now we are getting into the philosophy behind the poll and how one should be voting.

[Redbird 4th & short]

It proves that WCU was better than Samford ON SATURDAY. It does not prove that WCU is better than Samford TODAY.
Look at Week 1 of the NFL. The Lions beat the Chiefs on opening night (better on the day). How many of us believe the Lions are BETTER than the Chiefs?

You make a valid point in general, just not sure it applies here. This was not a game decided by special teams, turnovers, or penalties - nothing of significance happened in this game. it was decided at the line of scrimmage. Unless there were key injuries on Samford that game.

But ultimately, all 11 games will determine who is better when it comes the FCS selection committee. So to your point ... 10 games from now, Samford could still be better playoff team in eyes of polls, computers, and selection committee ... even if WCU matches up real well and is better head to head.





Statistic
SAM
WCU


FIRST DOWNS


Total
15
34


Rushing
4
19


Passing
11
13


Penalty
0
2


RUSHING


Total (Net)
46
284


Attempts
23
49


Avg. Per Rush
2.0
5.8


Rushing TDs
0
1


Yds. Gained
81
295


Yds. Lost
35
11


PASSING


Total (Net)
315
262


Comp.-Att.-Int.
21-34-0
29-35-0


Avg. / Att.
9.3
7.5


Avg. / Comp.
15.0
9.0


TDs
1
2


TOTAL OFFENSE


Yards
361
546


Plays
57
84


Avg. / Play
6.3
6.5


Fumbles - Lost
2-1
0-0


Penalties - Yds.
4-55
4-35

[FUBeAR]

This is something I struggle to come to terms with.

While you THINK Samford is better than WCU, WCU dismantled Samford on the field. Shouldn't that actual on-the-field evidence PROVE WCU is better than Samford today?

There's nothing to interpret here.
FUBeAR THINKS…

1) Data studying, game watching, objective poll voters do not have Teams that are under- or over-rated in their rankings. Their rankings are based on what they’ve seen and analyzed prior to the season and the knowledge they add and use to update their rankings as each game is played

2 & 3) Watching the not-against-each-other games of Samford and WCU provides us with more some visually-acquired knowledge, but little else as the competition levels were so disparate. Samford looked about as expected vs Shorter, but there were some ‘cracks’ visible in their Defense. WCU looked about as expected vs. Arkansas, but their QB play was substandard AND their Defense looked better than in their prior years SEC/ACC/FBS losses.

4) Watching their against-each-other game confirms issues with Samford’s Defense and the improvement of WCU’s Defense. It also denies the below standard WCU QB play seen vs Arkansas as WCU’s QB was ‘money’ vs. Samford.

5) From these 4 points, a logical voter, who studies data AND watches games, would conclude that WCU is a better Team than Samford.

6 & 7) A logical, data-studying, game watching, objective voter would have already factored into Samford’s Ranking that they only returned 2.6 Starters on Defense, had 18 New Transfers on their 2-Deep, and looked like (vs. Shorter) they might have some issues or growing pains on Defense. So this type of voter would not have had Samford “overrated.” They would have had Samford perfectly rated based upon the knowledge they had prior to the Samford @ WCU game. The same can be said for where this type of voter would have had WCU ranked based upon their finish in ‘22, the early churn in their roster upon Coach Bell’s arrival and the relative stability of it in the most recent recruiting cycle, along with the steady talent upgrade.

8) Now - to ElCid’s point, if a voter still FEELS Samford is the better Team despite the most recent evidence to the contrary, then that’s fine. Such a voter should rank them thusly. BUT - a voter needs GOOD REASON(S) for that. “They still need to prove it to me.” OR “I need consistency/validation.” are NOT logical GOOD REASONS. One could say… “Well, worth a 5 hour weather delay, I think that just gives a tremendous advantage to the home Team and it was still anyone’s ball game before that, so I’m not ready to bestow my ‘they’re the better team’ blessing on WCU yet.” OR “Samford’s QB got his bell rung right before the weather delay. Can’t believe he was not concussed. I know he returned, but he didn’t look the same to me, and it was anyone’s ball game at that point and he’s the straw that stirs Samford’s drink…so, no, I still think Samford is the better Team.”

Whatever might be your data-based and/or visually-acquired reason(s) for FEELING the way you FEEL could be valid … but some dogmatic….’gotta win 2 to move up’ or whatever makes no sense.

[ElCid]

This is something I struggle to come to terms with.

While you THINK Samford is better than WCU, WCU dismantled Samford on the field. Shouldn't that actual on-the-field evidence PROVE WCU is better than Samford today?

There's nothing to interpret here.

But my thoughts, due to my exposure to them and their articles, and watching them more than you or others, probably gives me insight that may not make sense to others on the surface. And have you never seen a really good team lay an egg? Or some teams play above themselves? I have.

[Redbird 4th & short]

FUBeAR THINKS…

1) Data studying, game watching, objective poll voters do not have Teams that are under- or over-rated in their rankings. Their rankings are based on what they’ve seen and analyzed prior to the season and the knowledge they add and use to update their rankings as each game is played

2 & 3) Watching the not-against-each-other games of Samford and WCU provides us with more some visually-acquired knowledge, but little else as the competition levels were so disparate. Samford looked about as expected vs Shorter, but there were some ‘cracks’ visible in their Defense. WCU looked about as expected vs. Arkansas, but their QB play was substandard AND their Defense looked better than in their prior years SEC/ACC/FBS losses.

4) Watching their against-each-other game confirms issues with Samford’s Defense and the improvement of WCU’s Defense. It also denies the below standard WCU QB play seen vs Arkansas as WCU’s QB was ‘money’ vs. Samford.

5) From these 4 points, a logical voter, who studies data AND watches games, would conclude that WCU is a better Team than Samford.

6 & 7) A logical, data-studying, game watching, objective voter would have already factored into Samford’s Ranking that they only returned 2.6 Starters on Defense, had 18 New Transfers on their 2-Deep, and looked like (vs. Shorter) they might have some issues or growing pains on Defense. So this type of voter would not have had Samford “overrated.” They would have had Samford perfectly rated based upon the knowledge they had prior to the Samford @ WCU game. The same can be said for where this type of voter would have had WCU ranked based upon their finish in ‘22, the early churn in their roster upon Coach Bell’s arrival and the relative stability of it in the most recent recruiting cycle, along with the steady talent upgrade.

8) Now - to ElCid’s point, if a voter still FEELS Samford is the better Team despite the most recent evidence to the contrary, then that’s fine. Such a voter should rank them thusly. BUT - a voter needs GOOD REASON(S) for that. “They still need to prove it to me.” OR “I need consistency/validation.” are NOT logical GOOD REASONS. One could say… “Well, worth a 5 hour weather delay, I think that just gives a tremendous advantage to the home Team and it was still anyone’s ball game before that, so I’m not ready to bestow my ‘they’re the better team’ blessing on WCU yet.” OR “Samford’s QB got his bell rung right before the weather delay. Can’t believe he was not concussed. I know he returned, but he didn’t look the same to me, and it was anyone’s ball game at that point and he’s the straw that stirs Samford’s drink…so, no, I still think Samford is the better Team.”

Whatever might be your data-based and/or visually-acquired reason(s) for FEELING the way you FEEL could be valid … but some dogmatic….’gotta win 2 to move up’ or whatever makes no sense.

Single data points are just that .. single data points. It is not a contradiction to say WCU is clearly better than Samford. But Samford is the better team against rest of field and deserves a higher ranking. I'm not saying this is case, just saying it is not a contradiction. It is 2 different things .. though WCU made a strong case in just 1 of 2 games so far. By end of season, it is only 1 of 11 games, and 9 weeks ago at that.

Daisy Chains are all the proof needed in this regard.

[wcugrad95]

At least we know FUBeAR is back 😀

[caribbeanhen]

It proves that WCU was better than Samford ON SATURDAY. It does not prove that WCU is better than Samford TODAY.


Well since the game was played on Saturday, that’s is what should matter most

and Samford aint playing Western Carolina today, so it doesn’t matter at all if there better today

[OhioHen]

Well since the game was played on Saturday, that’s is what should matter most

and Samford aint playing Western Carolina today, so it doesn’t matter at all if there better today
For poll purposes, it DOES matter if they are perceived as being better today.

Note: I did not have either Samford or Western Carolina in my top 25 this week and WCU was ahead of Samford in my list of other teams under consideration. Doesn't change my point, though.

[ElCid]

For poll purposes, it DOES matter if they are perceived as being better today.

Note: I did not have either Samford or Western Carolina in my top 25 this week and WCU was ahead of Samford in my list of other teams under consideration. Doesn't change my point, though.

I barely had Samford in and WCU knocking. If they win this week, on the road, they will probably leap Samford and a few other teams because it will show me the consistency I need to warrant a higher ranking. If Samford wins, not likely, they will both leap quite a few teams. But even if they do win, FBS games are a crap shoot sometimes, especially P5. When "most" scalps occur, it usually just proves the FCS team is solid and the ball bounced their way as well. Play the game 10 times and it "might" not happen again or maybe once. Probably a bit more with G5.

[caribbeanhen]

I barely had Samford in and WCU knocking. If they win this week, on the road, they will probably leap Samford and a few other teams because it will show me the consistency I need to warrant a higher ranking. If Samford wins, not likely, they will both leap quite a few teams. But even if they do win, FBS games are a crap shoot sometimes, especially P5. When "most" scalps occur, it usually just proves the FCS team is solid and the ball bounced their way as well. Play the game 10 times and it "might" not happen again or maybe once. Probably a bit more with G5.

I totally get what you’re saying about needing to see some consistency, but at the same time I disagree. Western Carolina should be ranked above Samford this week and if that turns out to be wrong, you adjust hard the next week and following weeks. This is not investing El Cid, it’s a football game and W Carolina proved they are better at least for now.

[FUBeAR]

I totally get what you’re saying about needing to see some consistency, but at the same time I disagree. Western Carolina should be ranked above Samford this week and if that turns out to be wrong, you adjust hard the next week and following weeks. This is not investing El Cid, it’s a football game and W Carolina proved they are better at least for now.
Correct … unless …

NOTE: FUBeAR is not saying any of these (below) are his opinion in the Samford @ WCU game. Just acknowledging that a logical voter may still have logical reason(s) for ranking Team A that just lost to Team B ahead of Team B.

1) Something about the game informs the voter to deny the result. Examples would be injuries to key players, critical,bad calls by officials, weather delays, extreme field and/or weather conditions affecting Team X more than Team Y for Z reason(s).

2) The 2 Teams’ collective bodies of work in THIS season clearly point to Team A being better than Team B despite a single data point in a series of data points. The voter judges the Team B win as an outlier and continues to rank Team A higher than Team B.

3) As another poster mentioned (or FUBeAR thinks this was the point), matchups matter. While Team A may be a far better Team than Team B and the voter believes Team A would defeat Teams C, D, E, F, G, etc., but Team B would lose to all of those (and more), that Team A, for whatever reason, doesn’t matchup well with Team B causing them to lose. For example … Back when Wofford was good, they could not beat Samford Teams that were 4-4, 3-5 in the SoCon while Woffy was 7-1 or 6-2. Woffy’s D just didn’t match up well with Samford’s O, but there was little question that, overall, Wofford was the better Team.

Again1 - not taking this position in this instance. FUBeAR would have WCU ahead of Samford, based upon his viewing of all 3 of the games these 2 Teams have played AND the available data surrounding these 3 games AND to a declining amount, what FUBeAR had gleaned from these Teams last season and in the off-season.

Again2 - FUBeAR concurs with CHen and dissents from ElCid regarding the ‘wait a week or 2’ issue. The investing analogy CHen used is apt.

[SU DOG]

Any poll right now should have Western above Samford. This Catamounts team is a very good one. My only hope lies in the knowledge that this Samford Team has the talent to not look like "that team" in the future. Unfortunately, playing Auburn will not allow much of a chance to improve morale and confidence.

[Reign of Terrier]

Any poll right now should have Western above Samford. This Catamounts team is a very good one. My only hope lies in the knowledge that this Samford Team has the talent to not look like "that team" in the future. Unfortunately, playing Auburn will not allow much of a chance to improve morale and confidence.

Yeah, anyone thinking Samford can't rally and finish 8-3 (or so) and make the playoffs is crazy. I feel like the lackluster performance was in some part mental. I've never seen a two deep so full of seniors and graduate students. These are very experienced football players, and we all know Hatcher will put them in a place to score lots of points. The defense is probably more concerning, but I anticipate Samford's offense bouncing back big time in the coming weeks

[ElCid]

Yeah, anyone thinking Samford can't rally and finish 8-3 (or so) and make the playoffs is crazy. I feel like the lackluster performance was in some part mental. I've never seen a two deep so full of seniors and graduate students. These are very experienced football players, and we all know Hatcher will put them in a place to score lots of points. The defense is probably more concerning, but I anticipate Samford's offense bouncing back big time in the coming weeks

With a whole lot less experience, I've seen, as we all have, Samford knock out tons of points in a blink of an eye. I just know this was an anomaly for them. Were they looking ahead to Auburn? I'm still not sold on WCU, even if they have my full attention. I have seen them stumble before.

[Reign of Terrier]

Historically in the socon (i.e the last 15 years), the only teams you don't expect to stumble in the second half of the season are Wofford and Furman. If anything, the bet against them is that they may get out the gate slow over the last 5 years. What was surprising last year with Samford is that they didn't collapse.

I'm not saying Samford, Chattanooga, Mercer, or Western can't break that mold, or that this pattern is prophetic and set in stone, but in the last 5-10 years if you bet on it, you'd make money.

None of this is me dunking on those teams. This pattern is bad for the socon (samford somewhat collapsing in 2017 was catastrophic for seeding). That's why I'm rooting for the teams that separate in the first half of the season (except never Furman, because Furman sucks)

[Wolffan]

Somehow, by virtue of decisively beating two weak Patriot League teams and having some other things fall into place, Villanova slipped into the top 25. I guess a strong showing versus UCF will keep them there another week. Theyve still got a long way to go to climb into at-large consideration.

[caribbeanhen]

Somehow, by virtue of decisively beating two weak Patriot League teams and having some other things fall into place, Villanova slipped into the top 25. I guess a strong showing versus UCF will keep them there another week. Theyve still got a long way to go to climb into at-large consideration.

Is WR Hayak back or hurt?