Which team(s) not in the AGS preseason top 25 will be seeded in this years playoffs?

[Chalupa Batman]

Recent history suggests that at least 1 team (and quite possibly 2 teams) not ranked in the AGS preseason top 25 poll are going to get a seed in the playoffs come November. Going back to 2013 and the beginning of the current 8 seeds/24 team playoff format, in 9 of the 10 fall seasons at least 1 team not ranked in the AGS preseason top 25 poll has been one of the top 8 seeds in that years playoffs.


2013 - Southeastern Louisiana (#4 seed, not ranked in top 40 preseason)
Maine (#5 seed, not ranked in top 40 preseason)
McNeese State (#6 seed, ranked #30 in preseason)

2014 - Illinois State (#5 seed, not ranked in top 40 preseason)

2015 - McNeese State (#4 seed, ranked #27 preseason)
Portland State (#6 seed, not ranked in top 40 preseason)

2016 - All seeded teams were ranked in the preseason top 25

2017 - Southern Utah (#8 seed, ranked #40 preseason)

2018 - UC Davis (#6 seed, ranked #40 preseason)
Maine (#7 seed, ranked #38 preseason)
Colgate (#8 seed, ranked #36 preseason)

2019 - Sac State (#4 seed, not ranked in preseason top 40)

2021 - Sac State (#4 seed, ranked #30 preseason)
East Tennessee State (#7 seed, ranked #31 preseason)

2022 - William & Mary (#5 seed, ranked #31 preseason)
Samford (#6 seed, not ranked in preseason top 40)


Of teams that don't appear in this years preseason top 25 (below), which team(s) do you think will get a seed? My best guesses are Southern Illinois, UT Martin, or Eastern Kentucky/Austin Peay/Stephen F Austin if one of them wins out in the UAC.


1 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1049 41
2 North Dakota State Bison 973 1
3 Montana State Bobcats 967
4 Furman Paladins 857
5 Holy Cross Crusaders 810
6 William & Mary Tribe 786
7 Samford Bulldogs 690
8 Incarnate Word Cardinals 686
9 Sac State Hornets 589
10 Idaho Vandals 588
11 New Hampshire Wildcats 539
12 Southeastern Louisiana Lions 520
13 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 510
14 Montana Grizzlies 490
15 Weber State Wildcats 463
16 UC Davis Aggies 421
17 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 399
18 Richmond Spiders 326
19 Mercer Bears 322
20 Northern Iowa Panthers 233
21 North Carolina Central Eagles 181
22 Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens 178
23 Rhode Island Rams 147
24 Chattanooga Mocs 125
25 Elon Phoenix 107

[MR. CHICKEN]

2023
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
GARDNER-WEBB

[KPSUL]

2023
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
GARDNER-WEBB

WAG! (Wild Ass Guess)

[MR. CHICKEN]

WAG! (Wild Ass Guess)

32930

EDUCATED GUESS.........DIMMY!

UMMM...........CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS PICKED TO WIN ASUN-WAC (UAC)....BAH LINDY'S.......BRAWK!
UMMM...........GARDNER-WEBB IS PICKED 2nd IN BIG SOUTH-OVC.............BAH LINDY'S............AWK!

WHERE'S YER GUESS....DOOFY?

[NY Crusader 2010]

I'll go with Central Arkansas too.

What are the chances of Villanova turning it around after a disappointing season?

[caribbeanhen]

Monmouth
Wofford
St Thomas
Albany
SF Austin

based on hopes and dreams

[MR. CHICKEN]

I'll go with Central Arkansas too.

What are the chances of Villanova turning it around after a disappointing season?

.........xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxx lolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxx lolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx...........POST UH YEAR CANDIDATE.....xnodx.......BRAWK!

[KPSUL]

32930

EDUCATED GUESS.........DIMMY!

UMMM...........CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS PICKED TO WIN ASUN-WAC (UAC)....BAH LINDY'S.......BRAWK!
UMMM...........GARDNER-WEBB IS PICKED 2nd IN BIG SOUTH-OVC.............BAH LINDY'S............AWK!

WHERE'S YER GUESS....DOOFY?

Fair enough. My guess? ZERO teams outside the preseason top 25 get a seed (AGS & STATS)

Also you only get 1 ​guess, you ain't the barnyard boss here.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Fair enough. My guess? ZERO teams outside the preseason top 25 get a seed (AGS & STATS)


....WAY TA GO OUT....ON-UH LIMB......xeekx.....................xsighx.....AWK !

ps.......CHALUPA CHOSE 5...................AWQ!

[caribbeanhen]

....WAY TA GO OUT....ON-UH LIMB......xeekx.....................xsighx.....AWK !

ps.......CHALUPA CHOSE 5...................AWQ!

KPSUL getting into regular season form….

[KPSUL]

KPSUL getting into regular season form….
32933
32932

[FUBeAR]

Elon

[caribbeanhen]

Elon

We shall beat Elon

Elton John

[KPSUL]

Elon

Musk?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

UT-Martin: I thought they were a playoff team last year. Will once again challenge SEMO (who has equity) for the OVC auto-bid....
Fordham: Their schedule sets up that a 10-1 record, beat HC for the PL Title, could put them in the mix. They still have a lot of weapons...
Villanova: The Wildcats have definitely slipped since losing to SDSU in the 2021 playoffs. But, there is always talent on the Mainline and the CAA tends to be a bit unpredictable....

[taper]

Out of these 15 teams, 7 lost their first game. Only 2 made it past the quarters, and a decent chunk of those 2nd round wins were cupcakes. 4 out of 5 Big Sky teams lost their 1st game, and the 5th lost in the quarters to an unseeded BSC team. I've said before the BSC is too big and the randomness of who plays who means a decent but not great team gets the conference title and an undeserved seed. Unfortunately the MVFC and CAA are going to be doing the same now.

[skinny_uncle]

SIU

[Chalupa Batman]

Fair enough. My guess? ZERO teams outside the preseason top 25 get a seed (AGS & STATS)

Also you only get 1 ​guess, you ain't the barnyard boss here.



Take as many guesses as you like. I'm interested in hearing about any team someone thinks could be seeded in the playoffs.


SIU

Your schedule gives a great chance to build a resume, and it gives you a good chance to knock off one of both of the top 2 teams in the preseason poll. There's a winnable FBS game against Northern Illinois (3-9 last year), and your other non-con opponents (Austin Peay & SEMO) could both be playoff contenders. In the Valley you do play SDSU & NDSU, but avoid UNI & North Dakota. However you play SDSU a week after they host UNI on homecoming and your game against NDSU is sandwiched between Bison road games at SDSU and UNI, giving you as good a chance against those teams that you could ask for. Of course that schedule could knock you out of the playoffs altogether, but a strong non-con showing coupled with clipping either SDSU or NDSU should get you in consideration for a seed.

[WestCoastAggie]

Fordham
Monmouth
SF Austin

[caribbeanhen]

Fordham
Monmouth
SF Austin

I heard MUHAWKS is selling Monmouth Kool-Aide on Amazon

The Braves had a HR hitter in Henry Aaron and didn’t win anything unless you remember 1957

[MR. CHICKEN]

Fordham
Monmouth
SF Austin


....AN' ALL YOUSE SUCKERS......TOOK ALBANY......AWK!

[caribbeanhen]

....AN' ALL YOUSE SUCKERS......TOOK ALBANY......AWK!

haha, Yes we did … and it didn’t feel right

[KPSUL]

haha, Yes we did … and it didn’t feel right

Good point! Albany is #1 in the CAA for losing games everyone thinks they should win. But I'm sticking with my Danes vote.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Good point! Albany is #1 in the CAA for losing games everyone thinks they should win. But I'm sticking with my Danes vote.


LOSER!

[ElCid]

I'll go with either Central Arkansas or EKU. Their late season match up may decide who gets it. But barring a whiff by NDSU, both teams will start the season with two early season losses with three good FBS and NDSU between them.

I'll give YSU an honorable mention. But my gut says, even though they were ranked 24 and don't qualify for this exercise, UTC gets one before many teams currently above them.

[MUHAWKS]

I heard MUHAWKS is selling Monmouth Kool-Aide on Amazon

The Braves had a HR hitter in Henry Aaron and didn’t win anything unless you remember 1957

Hen you truly have something against us I see. Its hilarious actually- I am not naïve I "get it"- You and the other "mature" FCS fans (meaning fans of storied and good programs not age) are hardened and "know what it takes" to be truly good and MU , well we are just some NEC/Big South team who came to the CAA and performed average and there is just NO WAY we could turn 5-6 with 3-4 extremely close losses into 8-3 or 9-2.. ow for the record eve I do not think we can do what it takes to get a seed, in fact I do not think anyone who is not ranked will get a seed, I agree with KPSUL- The CAA's days of getting the benefit of the doubt are over IMO and the thanks can go to, well.. The Top teams in the CAA who embarrassed themselves against the top teams last year- namely Delaware ad W&M. I wont say UNH losing to HC was a huge deal but lets face it, the CAA's top team or top 2-3 team "should" beat every patriot team, so just a bad look for the CAA so I dont see anyone even getting the benefit of the doubt at least for this year. In terms of your hate for us, or rather what seems like your refusal to believe we can be good, I guess we are close enough where we do not need to talk about it, we will find out soon enough. And if and when we are 6-2 or 6-3 with 2 or 3 games left I know I may hear about "schedule" but I better not hear it from you b/c sure you beat the high powered Midshipmen, but along the way Del State, Morgan State, Hampton, Towson, and us. Losses to Richmond and Nova to end the year ad another to Elon with kicking our tails in sandwiched in between that.

So- beat a service academy- lose what was thought to maybe be a must win season ender to a team even Monmouth beat!, lose to Richmond, W&M, and Elon. You guys had only 1 "good" win outside navy and it was URI. Now listen, I think UDEL was and is a good team ad program, I like Carty, but all I am saying is when you add the embarrassment at the hands of the eventual champs - with all the money, the facilities etc. even you cannot be happy with The Hens last year which was a handout playoff invite for beating Navy.

[caribbeanhen]

Hen you truly have something against us I see. Its hilarious actually- I am not naïve I "get it"- You and the other "mature" FCS fans (meaning fans of storied and good programs not age) are hardened and "know what it takes" to be truly good and MU , well we are just some NEC/Big South team who came to the CAA and performed average and there is just NO WAY we could turn 5-6 with 3-4 extremely close losses into 8-3 or 9-2.. ow for the record eve I do not think we can do what it takes to get a seed, in fact I do not think anyone who is not ranked will get a seed, I agree with KPSUL- The CAA's days of getting the benefit of the doubt are over IMO and the thanks can go to, well.. The Top teams in the CAA who embarrassed themselves against the top teams last year- namely Delaware ad W&M. I wont say UNH losing to HC was a huge deal but lets face it, the CAA's top team or top 2-3 team "should" beat every patriot team, so just a bad look for the CAA so I dont see anyone even getting the benefit of the doubt at least for this year. In terms of your hate for us, or rather what seems like your refusal to believe we can be good, I guess we are close enough where we do not need to talk about it, we will find out soon enough. And if and when we are 6-2 or 6-3 with 2 or 3 games left I know I may hear about "schedule" but I better not hear it from you b/c sure you beat the high powered Midshipmen, but along the way Del State, Morgan State, Hampton, Towson, and us. Losses to Richmond and Nova to end the year ad another to Elon with kicking our tails in sandwiched in between that.

So- beat a service academy- lose what was thought to maybe be a must win season ender to a team even Monmouth beat!, lose to Richmond, W&M, and Elon. You guys had only 1 "good" win outside navy and it was URI. Now listen, I think UDEL was and is a good team ad program, I like Carty, but all I am saying is when you add the embarrassment at the hands of the eventual champs - with all the money, the facilities etc. even you cannot be happy with The Hens last year which was a handout playoff invite for beating Navy.

Well admittedly my Amazon joke was a little rough, but let’s not intermix my feelings for posters and there football teams

I like you MUHAWKS, you “bring it” to this board, my feelings for your team aren’t the same

And you bring up the Hens but have you heard me bragging on the Hens recently ? Don’t forget they were 5-6 in 2021, Carty comes in with no head coaching experience and has to try and rebuild and get the needed talent in. You’re right, Delaware does have the resources but Danny Rocco didn’t seem interested enough to capitalize on it. Carty at least wants to take advantage of the WAC facility, work the portal and get the kind of talent in that it will take to win. Any good coach knows that and at least Carty understands that. Where he takes Delaware from here is the great unknown as he needs to figure out how to win those games you mentioned. If I were him, my goal would be to slide into the void left by JMU and right now William & Mary is winning that battle.

[MUHAWKS]

Well admittedly my Amazon joke was a little rough, but let’s not intermix my feelings for posters and there football teams

I like you MUHAWKS, you “bring it” to this board, my feelings for your team aren’t the same

And you bring up the Hens but have you heard me bragging on the Hens recently ? Don’t forget they were 5-6 in 2021, Carty comes in with no head coaching experience and has to try and rebuild and get the needed talent in. You’re right, Delaware does have the resources but Danny Rocco didn’t seem interested enough to capitalize on it. Carty at least wants to take advantage of the WAC facility, work the portal and get the kind of talent in that it will take to win. Any good coach knows that and at least Carty understands that. Where he takes Delaware from here is the great unknown as he needs to figure out how to win those games you mentioned. If I were him, my goal would be to slide into the void left by JMU and right now William & Mary is winning that battle.

Lol- no offense taken-- literally ever.. this is a football chat board. so dont have to worry about me being offended or upset, EVER. My angst is solely out of the love for my team and I agree you do not come here and talk about your own team in any sort of crazy manner or put on a pedestal. My point in bringing The Hens up is b/c "perception is reality" is sometimes tough to fight, but I think the only reason they even made the playoffs is b/c where they "started" the season in the polls and I hate that about FCS. At the end of the day they were probably deserving and again smoked us and although inconsistent, a dangerous team at times. But I was simply foreshadowing what I see as a possibility for 2023 (which aside from your FBS tilt again seems like a very opportunistic schedule)- for Monmouth.

To wit- Maybe I am simply too biased to ever see reality, but I know what I have seen since last year and IMO the defense is not just better than last year which is not hard to do, but is good. Remember, our best CB was out for the last 7 games. We had zero size or speed on the DL. We brought in FIVE new guys on the DL who all fit that mold. A couple 300 lb DT's who can play (I have seen them) and a couple speed/finesse type outside rush guys. IMO having a deep and good DL makes all the difference in the world as it frees up LB's, allows DB's to be more aggressive and then just the obvious (tackles for loss, sacks, penetration) and if you make the not so far fetched assumption that our offense will still be good, having a good defense will only make them better. Maybe I am underestimating how much better other teams got or how far we may have been off from an Elon, a W&M or a UNH. It is possible. But I know what I see and as much as I hate the portal, we have used it well and I am highly convicted when I say our defense will be good. So I think we are THE sleeper in the CAA. Anyway my point in bringing up last year for the Hens was this: Lets say for giggles that MU does beat Towson, Campbell, Lafayette, Lehigh and Hampton after a mildly competitive loss to FAU. We would be 5-1 and I guarantee not one person would give any credit for being 5-1 at that point. I am not saying it is a give or even easy but I think it will happen. It would leave Elon, W&M, Stony, UNH and Albany. Winning 3 of those games would make us 8-3 and we probably would be left out or on the extreme bubble eve though it would require one win to be either elon, w&m or UNH. And yet last year you guys coasted in b/c in week 1 you beat Navy but more so b/c you started the year in the top 10. If my prognostication comes to fruition I just want to see the same treatment of MU as the old time programs like UNH , Udel etc.. Even UNH last year who was a fine team, nobody believed but them the whole way. They eeked by us and Albany to start the year, lose to NC central, got smoked in their FBS, beat Towson and Stony, and a poor dartmouth team who lost to sacred heart and Cornell. took a close loss to Richmond and barely escape URI and Maine. Wins are wins I get it, but not sure how THAT gets respected so greatly. Do you see where I am coming from at all?????? Or am I making no sense. Last year we essentially got no credit for losing "close" games against some good teams. Fine no problem, so I just expect and hope that we will get the same "CAA" treatment if we can also capitalize on beating "on paper" average teams. Ad the truth is I have no clue how good or bad Campbell, Towson, Albany etc will be. All I am really saying is, either wins and losses matter or they do not. For whatever reason most on this board do not care if you lose a close game against a good team and that is totally fine. Ok no I am not even sure why I am still talking perhaps the 8 cups of cofeee.

[KPSUL]

Winning 3 of those games would make us 8-3 and we probably would be left out or on the extreme bubble eve though it would require one win to be either elon, w&m or UNH.

8-3 will get Monmouth, or any other CAA team in the playoffs.

[MUHAWKS]

8-3 will get Monmouth, or any other CAA team in the playoffs.

You REALLY think that bro? or are basing off of the past. I hope you are right for all of our sakes, but unless the love affair with the the CAA goes way beyond what I realize I really think last year changed things. Elon smoked, UNH lose to a PL (albeit very very good one), UDEL and W&M demolished by the cream of the FCS crop. I think the 15/16 team league may be seen as watered down when you combine with last years results. I guess the saving grace is aside from the obvious conferences there just are not enough very good teams to get to 24 but for some reason I feel a solid 7-4 from other major conference or surprise 9 win team from lesser conference getting nod over a "weak" or "cuspy" 8-3 CAA team- Hope you are right!

[caribbeanhen]

Lol- no offense taken-- literally ever.. this is a football chat board. so dont have to worry about me being offended or upset, EVER. My angst is solely out of the love for my team and I agree you do not come here and talk about your own team in any sort of crazy manner or put on a pedestal. My point in bringing The Hens up is b/c "perception is reality" is sometimes tough to fight, but I think the only reason they even made the playoffs is b/c where they "started" the season in the polls and I hate that about FCS. At the end of the day they were probably deserving and again smoked us and although inconsistent, a dangerous team at times. But I was simply foreshadowing what I see as a possibility for 2023 (which aside from your FBS tilt again seems like a very opportunistic schedule)- for Monmouth.

To wit- Maybe I am simply too biased to ever see reality, but I know what I have seen since last year and IMO the defense is not just better than last year which is not hard to do, but is good. Remember, our best CB was out for the last 7 games. We had zero size or speed on the DL. We brought in FIVE new guys on the DL who all fit that mold. A couple 300 lb DT's who can play (I have seen them) and a couple speed/finesse type outside rush guys. IMO having a deep and good DL makes all the difference in the world as it frees up LB's, allows DB's to be more aggressive and then just the obvious (tackles for loss, sacks, penetration) and if you make the not so far fetched assumption that our offense will still be good, having a good defense will only make them better. Maybe I am underestimating how much better other teams got or how far we may have been off from an Elon, a W&M or a UNH. It is possible. But I know what I see and as much as I hate the portal, we have used it well and I am highly convicted when I say our defense will be good. So I think we are THE sleeper in the CAA. Anyway my point in bringing up last year for the Hens was this: Lets say for giggles that MU does beat Towson, Campbell, Lafayette, Lehigh and Hampton after a mildly competitive loss to FAU. We would be 5-1 and I guarantee not one person would give any credit for being 5-1 at that point. I am not saying it is a give or even easy but I think it will happen. It would leave Elon, W&M, Stony, UNH and Albany. Winning 3 of those games would make us 8-3 and we probably would be left out or on the extreme bubble eve though it would require one win to be either elon, w&m or UNH. And yet last year you guys coasted in b/c in week 1 you beat Navy but more so b/c you started the year in the top 10. If my prognostication comes to fruition I just want to see the same treatment of MU as the old time programs like UNH , Udel etc.. Even UNH last year who was a fine team, nobody believed but them the whole way. They eeked by us and Albany to start the year, lose to NC central, got smoked in their FBS, beat Towson and Stony, and a poor dartmouth team who lost to sacred heart and Cornell. took a close loss to Richmond and barely escape URI and Maine. Wins are wins I get it, but not sure how THAT gets respected so greatly. Do you see where I am coming from at all?????? Or am I making no sense. Last year we essentially got no credit for losing "close" games against some good teams. Fine no problem, so I just expect and hope that we will get the same "CAA" treatment if we can also capitalize on beating "on paper" average teams. Ad the truth is I have no clue how good or bad Campbell, Towson, Albany etc will be. All I am really saying is, either wins and losses matter or they do not. For whatever reason most on this board do not care if you lose a close game against a good team and that is totally fine. Ok no I am not even sure why I am still talking perhaps the 8 cups of cofeee.

Beat New Hampshire

[KPSUL]

You REALLY think that bro? or are basing off of the past. I hope you are right for all of our sakes, but unless the love affair with the the CAA goes way beyond what I realize I really think last year changed things. Elon smoked, UNH lose to a PL (albeit very very good one), UDEL and W&M demolished by the cream of the FCS crop. I think the 15/16 team league may be seen as watered down when you combine with last years results. I guess the saving grace is aside from the obvious conferences there just are not enough very good teams to get to 24 but for some reason I feel a solid 7-4 from other major conference or surprise 9 win team from lesser conference getting nod over a "weak" or "cuspy" 8-3 CAA team- Hope you are right!

Yep. An 8-3 or better CAA team has never failed to make the playoffs, last time a team did not, it was Hofstra in the Atlantic 10 - 2005 . Also pretty sure that the majority of 7-4 CAA teams made it starting in 2013 with the 24 team playoff field. Is that enough history for ya?

[FUBeAR]

Yep. An 8-3 or better CAA team has never failed to make the playoffs, last time a team did not, it was Hofstra in the Atlantic 10 - 2005 . Also pretty sure that the majority of 7-4 CAA teams made it starting in 2013 with the 24 team playoff field. Is that enough history for ya?

So…

William & Mary - 2023


Aug. 31: At Campbell - W - 20-17
Sept. 9: Wofford- W - 23-21
Sept. 16: at Charleston Southern - W - 12-7
Sept. 23: Maine - W - 14-13
Sept. 30: at Elon - L - 45-3
Oct. 7: at Virginia - L - 77-0
Oct. 21: Towson - W - 29-27
Oct. 28: Monmouth - W - 27-24
Nov. 4: at Albany - W - 21-20
Nov. 11: at Hampton - W - 17-14
Nov. 18: Richmond - L - 54-7

8-3 / 6-2 with…

Best Win (per Massey) over current #47 Wofford, SoCon doormat.
Best CAA Win (per Massey) over current #48 Monmouth.
No “good” losses (per any semi-intelligent human).

THIS gets The Tribe an At-Large Playoff bid?

FUBeAR doesn’t really doubt it…but it’s pretty clear what a mockery can be made of Playoff At-Large Selections with a 15 Team Conference

[KPSUL]

So…

William & Mary - 2023


Aug. 31: At Campbell - W - 20-17
Sept. 9: Wofford- W - 23-21
Sept. 16: at Charleston Southern - W - 12-7
Sept. 23: Maine - W - 14-13
Sept. 30: at Elon - L - 45-3
Oct. 7: at Virginia - L - 77-0
Oct. 21: Towson - W - 29-27
Oct. 28: Monmouth - W - 27-24
Nov. 4: at Albany - W - 21-20
Nov. 11: at Hampton - W - 17-14
Nov. 18: Richmond - L - 54-7

8-3 / 6-2 with…

Best Win (per Massey) over current #47 Wofford, SoCon doormat.
Best CAA Win (per Massey) over current #48 Monmouth.
No “good” losses (per any semi-intelligent human).

THIS gets The Tribe an At-Large Playoff bid?

FUBeAR doesn’t really doubt it…but it’s pretty clear what a mockery can be made of Playoff At-Large Selections with a 15 Team Conference

While I'd guess W&M will finish 9-2, 3 losses to UVA, UofR and FUBeAR's favorite team - Elon is not out of the realm of reality. But those predicted scores certainly are! Establishing an alternative reality where W&M loses to Elon and Richmond by a combined score of 99-10 while squeaking by 8 other opponents by a total of 18 points does not create a hypothetical I would choose to opine about.

[caribbeanhen]

Yep. An 8-3 or better CAA team has never failed to make the playoffs, last time a team did not, it was Hofstra in the Atlantic 10 - 2005 . Also pretty sure that the majority of 7-4 CAA teams made it starting in 2013 with the 24 team playoff field. Is that enough history for ya?

ok but how many 8-3 teams are we looking at?

[KPSUL]

You REALLY think that bro? or are basing off of the past. I hope you are right for all of our sakes, but unless the love affair with the the CAA goes way beyond what I realize I really think last year changed things. Elon smoked, UNH lose to a PL (albeit very very good one), UDEL and W&M demolished by the cream of the FCS crop. I think the 15/16 team league may be seen as watered down when you combine with last years results. I guess the saving grace is aside from the obvious conferences there just are not enough very good teams to get to 24 but for some reason I feel a solid 7-4 from other major conference or surprise 9 win team from lesser conference getting nod over a "weak" or "cuspy" 8-3 CAA team- Hope you are right!

2018 was a worse performance for the CAA in the playoffs; 4 teams losing in the 1st round, JMU in the 2nd round to Colgate. Maine was the big surprise getting to the Semifinal. In 2019 only 3 CAA team made it to the playoffs, and everyone said it was because of how poorly the conference played in 2018 playoffs. Not true. Only 3 teams had less than 5 regular season losses: JMU, Albany and Villanova.

[KPSUL]

ok but how many 8-3 teams are we looking at?

It doesn't matter. When there wasn't an 8-3 team, a 7-4 team (or two) did make it.

[Reign of Terrier]

Out of these 15 teams, 7 lost their first game. Only 2 made it past the quarters, and a decent chunk of those 2nd round wins were cupcakes. 4 out of 5 Big Sky teams lost their 1st game, and the 5th lost in the quarters to an unseeded BSC team. I've said before the BSC is too big and the randomness of who plays who means a decent but not great team gets the conference title and an undeserved seed. Unfortunately the MVFC and CAA are going to be doing the same now.

On one hand, the CAA and Big Sky have somewhat gamed the system to have more teams with better records than other conferences. On the other, it really opens them up for bad playoff losses.


Monmouth
Wofford
St Thomas
Albany
SF Austin

based on hopes and dreams

Not taking the bait.


Hen you truly have something against us I see. Its hilarious actually- I am not naïve I "get it"- You and the other "mature" FCS fans (meaning fans of storied and good programs not age) are hardened and "know what it takes" to be truly good and MU , well we are just some NEC/Big South team who came to the CAA and performed average and there is just NO WAY we could turn 5-6 with 3-4 extremely close losses into 8-3 or 9-2.. ow for the record eve I do not think we can do what it takes to get a seed, in fact I do not think anyone who is not ranked will get a seed, I agree with KPSUL- The CAA's days of getting the benefit of the doubt are over IMO and the thanks can go to, well.. The Top teams in the CAA who embarrassed themselves against the top teams last year- namely Delaware ad W&M. I wont say UNH losing to HC was a huge deal but lets face it, the CAA's top team or top 2-3 team "should" beat every patriot team, so just a bad look for the CAA so I dont see anyone even getting the benefit of the doubt at least for this year. In terms of your hate for us, or rather what seems like your refusal to believe we can be good, I guess we are close enough where we do not need to talk about it, we will find out soon enough. And if and when we are 6-2 or 6-3 with 2 or 3 games left I know I may hear about "schedule" but I better not hear it from you b/c sure you beat the high powered Midshipmen, but along the way Del State, Morgan State, Hampton, Towson, and us. Losses to Richmond and Nova to end the year ad another to Elon with kicking our tails in sandwiched in between that.

So- beat a service academy- lose what was thought to maybe be a must win season ender to a team even Monmouth beat!, lose to Richmond, W&M, and Elon. You guys had only 1 "good" win outside navy and it was URI. Now listen, I think UDEL was and is a good team ad program, I like Carty, but all I am saying is when you add the embarrassment at the hands of the eventual champs - with all the money, the facilities etc. even you cannot be happy with The Hens last year which was a handout playoff invite for beating Navy.

From one text wall to a poster: Paragraph. Spacing.

8-3 will get Monmouth, or any other CAA team in the playoffs.


Yep. An 8-3 or better CAA team has never failed to make the playoffs, last time a team did not, it was Hofstra in the Atlantic 10 - 2005 . Also pretty sure that the majority of 7-4 CAA teams made it starting in 2013 with the 24 team playoff field. Is that enough history for ya?


It doesn't matter. When there wasn't an 8-3 team, a 7-4 team (or two) did make it.

This is mainly because it's really hard to win 8 games in any conference, and with a 24 playoff, it's hard to say no to what few 8 win teams there are. The socon is kind of the same way. If it's a 12 game season and there's an 8-4 team around (or multiple) that can leave a team out of the playoffs, but otherwise in an 11 game schedule in a 24 team bracket, if you're the Big Sky, CAA, Socon, and MVFC, you're pretty much guaranteed a spot. Every year they ponder "will this bubble team with "only" 8 wins get in" and the answer is always yes.

Now, the conferences without full scholarship allotment like NEC, Patriot, Pioneer, are almost assured not to get in without winning the conference unless they have a quality OOC win (the Patriot is the only one to accomplish this), and often times there's an OVC or Big South who has those 8 wins but has multiple D2 games, or nothing sniffing a top 25 win. Those are the teams that are usually left out with 8 wins.

My anxiety, if I were a member of the CAA, is that you've lost all the teams that traditionally make deep runs in the playoffs, and replaced them with former Pioneer/NEC/Big South types. I don't know if that's going to forge the consistency that will make this 8 win rule stay indefinitely, especially if the socon keeps performing OOC and if the MVFC maintains where they are, and if they keep losing in the playoffs in unflattering fashion.

[Tribe4SF]

My anxiety, if I were a member of the CAA, is that you've lost all the teams that traditionally make deep runs in the playoffs, and replaced them with former Pioneer/NEC/Big South types. I don't know if that's going to forge the consistency that will make this 8 win rule stay indefinitely, especially if the socon keeps performing OOC and if the MVFC maintains where they are, and if they keep losing in the playoffs in unflattering fashion.

You mean JMU, right? That's an "all" of one. You and FUBeaR will have your chances to pad those OOC records as Wofford and Furman are both playing W&M over the next few years.

[Milktruck74]

As a homer, I would have said Chattanooga, but we eeked in to the top 25 for AGS...not too many other polls though. So, my Darkhorse to make the playoffs and possibly surprise the world is gonna be Western Carolina. Not too sure if Coach "bust my own nuts" is finding someFlorida dudes that want to spend time in the hills....but the guy knows the game and seems to beable to put together schemes that score a ton of points....can he find a balance and stop anybody??? Yet to be determined!!!

[caribbeanhen]

As a homer, I would have said Chattanooga, but we eeked in to the top 25 for AGS...not too many other polls though. So, my Darkhorse to make the playoffs and possibly surprise the world is gonna be Western Carolina. Not too sure if Coach "bust my own nuts" is finding someFlorida dudes that want to spend time in the hills....but the guy knows the game and seems to beable to put together schemes that score a ton of points....can he find a balance and stop anybody??? Yet to be determined!!!

This is year 3 for Kerwin Bell so he’s getting into crunch time on the coaching clock.

And yes, it’s geo dynamic of his roster and location make it interesting

[FUBeAR]

While I'd guess W&M will finish 9-2, 3 losses to UVA, UofR and FUBeAR's favorite team - Elon is not out of the realm of reality. But those predicted scores certainly are! Establishing an alternative reality where W&M loses to Elon and Richmond by a combined score of 99-10 while squeaking by 8 other opponents by a total of 18 points does not create a hypothetical I would choose to opine about.
So, you're saying Mercer's 45-7 loss to VMI and 41-21 loss to Chattanooga DIDN'T happen.

WONDERFUL NEWS!!

How did the Bears do in the Playoffs in 2021 and 2022 then????


(86-28, while subsequently taking each year’s SoCon seeded Champion to final seconds/OT - FUBeAR appreciates you believe in a structured projected reality, but the spheroid is oblong. The exact 8-3/6-2, with corresponding scores, for W&M is well within the limits of possibilities)

[Reign of Terrier]

You mean JMU, right? That's an "all" of one. You and FUBeaR will have your chances to pad those OOC records as Wofford and Furman are both playing W&M over the next few years.

CAA isn't what it was 10 years ago and importing the NEC/Big South teams of the last decade hasn't been helpful.


As a homer, I would have said Chattanooga, but we eeked in to the top 25 for AGS...not too many other polls though. So, my Darkhorse to make the playoffs and possibly surprise the world is gonna be Western Carolina. Not too sure if Coach "bust my own nuts" is finding someFlorida dudes that want to spend time in the hills....but the guy knows the game and seems to beable to put together schemes that score a ton of points....can he find a balance and stop anybody??? Yet to be determined!!!

My thermonuclear take is that Bell isn't really doing anything that much different than Spier schematically. Western Carolina replaced someone running a spread, that aimed to score a million points that eventually degraded its own defense into dust and replaced it with a spread offense that aims to score a million points and has not yet degraded its defense into dust. Last year in conference play, they gave up about 398 yards per game on defense, which is better than the 468 of the previous year.

I just don't think this style of play is conducive to success at this level because the air raid spread is predicated on exploiting space and forcing defenses into making mistakes. Sure, it'll score a lot of points on other teams, but you're practicing against it in camp and your offense is working like it's supposed to, your defense is just going to have bad habits. This was Samford's problem until last year, and last year they brought in both an offense coordinator who was willing to run more and defense coordinator who's just really good. There's a reason why this offense is typically unsuccessful at FBS level and at the higher levels of FCS. Is it even run in the formerly G5 ranks? I imagine it works well at D2 because defenses in general are just bad there and so it the costs of running the system are somewhat offset.

But since, like 2011, outside of the coach's name being Kerwin Bell, what we see on the field for Western Carolina has been pretty much the same.

Again, I could be proven wrong! I could be completely full of **** here, but I need someone to explain to me how Bell has done anything different.

[The Cats]

There is no reason you should remember this, but in Speir's last 3 seasons, he won a total of 4 conference games. His last winning season (actually only his second, out of 9 seasons) was in 2017. In Bell's second year, he produced a winning record, 6-5, not great, but a winning season, and he won 4 conference games both seasons.

It's now his third year, and he has two very good recruiting classes under his belt and I think there will be significant improvement in both the offense and certainly the defense. While Bell is certainly an offense minded and driven head coach, he realizes he won't win a championship in the SoCon without a competitive defense. I believe there will be significant improvement there this season. We will know early, as we play Samford the second game, if he's devoted the resources to the defense, playing Arkansas, Samford, then Eastern Kentucky so early in the season, should put it to the test.

[MR. CHICKEN]

On one hand, the CAA and Big Sky have somewhat gamed the system to have more teams with better records than other conferences. On the other, it really opens them up for bad playoff losses.



Not taking the bait.



From one text wall to a poster: Paragraph. Spacing.






This is mainly because it's really hard to win 8 games in any conference, and with a 24 playoff, it's hard to say no to what few 8 win teams there are. The socon is kind of the same way. If it's a 12 game season and there's an 8-4 team around (or multiple) that can leave a team out of the playoffs, but otherwise in an 11 game schedule in a 24 team bracket, if you're the Big Sky, CAA, Socon, and MVFC, you're pretty much guaranteed a spot. Every year they ponder "will this bubble team with "only" 8 wins get in" and the answer is always yes.

Now, the conferences without full scholarship allotment like NEC, Patriot, Pioneer, are almost assured not to get in without winning the conference unless they have a quality OOC win (the Patriot is the only one to accomplish this), and often times there's an OVC or Big South who has those 8 wins but has multiple D2 games, or nothing sniffing a top 25 win. Those are the teams that are usually left out with 8 wins.

My anxiety, if I were a member of the CAA, is that you've lost all the teams that traditionally make deep runs in the playoffs, and replaced them with former Pioneer/NEC/Big South types. I don't know if that's going to forge the consistency that will make this 8 win rule stay indefinitely, especially if the socon keeps performing OOC and if the MVFC maintains where they are, and if they keep losing in the playoffs in unflattering fashion.

...DELAWARE....ONE UH LAST TEAMS IN.........LAID DUH WOOD TA ST. FRANCIS....ROUND ONE....56-17....GOT FED TA S.DAKOTA STATE ROUND TWO...(ANY TEAM IN DANCE WOODAH MET SAME RESULT).....BUT REGULAR SEASON HENS..WERE UH FG...AWAY FROM SNATCHIN' UH DUBBYA FROM RICHMOND....(HENS HELD 'EM TO 5 FG'S)....(GAME WINNER CAME WHIFF 4 TICKS ON CLOCK).....WHOM WENT OUT TA LA-LA LAND......AN' HUNG...WHIFF PROLIFIC HORNETS.......SO WHERE'S DUH CAA SCAM?......AWQ?

[FUBeAR]

...DELAWARE....RICHMOND.....[W&M]…..SO WHERE'S DUH CAA SCAM?......AWQ?
FUBeAR can Name That Tune in 4 notes!



Team
Score


Richmond
27


Elon
30




Team
Score


Delaware
7


Elon
27





Score


Elon
35


William & Mary
31




Team
Score


Elon
6


Furman
31

[MR. CHICKEN]

FUBeAR can Name That Tune in 4 notes!



Team
Score


Richmond
27


Elon
30




Team
Score


Delaware
7


Elon
27





Score


Elon
35


William & Mary
31




Team
Score


Elon
6


Furman
31






32943
......STUFF HAPPENS.........BRAWK!

[FUBeAR]

...STUFF HAPPENS.........BRAWK!
Elon was not even competitive with a SoCon runner-up.

Could not even score a single TD, but the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians whipped 3 CAA ‘playoff-worthy’ Teams; hangin’ ~30 on each of ‘em.

That’s A LOT of “stuff.”

Elon woulda been about 3-5 in SoCon…maybe 2-6.

CAA should be a 2 bid league…MAX.

[MR. CHICKEN]

....FUR BALLS....LOST TA INCARNATE......INCARNATE........WASTED SAC. STATE 66-63.........MAKIN' RICHMOND/DELAWARE SCENARIO....WHIFF SAC.....MO' IMPRESSIVE......BUT AH HAVE NO CHART....FO' YOUSE TA UNDERSTAND......AWK!

[FUBeAR]

....FUR BALLS....LOST TA INCARNATE......INCARNATE........WASTED SAC. STATE 66-63.........MAKIN' RICHMOND/DELAWARE SCENARIO....WHIFF SAC.....MO' IMPRESSIVE......BUT AH HAVE NO CHART....FO' YOUSE TA UNDERSTAND......AWK!
You gon’ need one of these to make that kind of REACH try to make some sense.

https://perkelton.com/other/complexflowchart.png

Didn’t realize chicken wings could stretch that far…without adding blue cheese dressing.

[ElCid]

Elon was not even competitive with a SoCon runner-up.

Could not even score a single TD, but the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians whipped 3 CAA ‘playoff-worthy’ Teams; hangin’ ~30 on each of ‘em.

That’s A LOT of “stuff.”

Elon woulda been about 3-5 in SoCon…maybe 2-6.

CAA should be a 2 bid league…MAX.

While this was interesting, and telling to a degree, there is something to be said for familiarity. It's hard to compare a conference game between fairly familiar teams, and possibly a "rival," and a one-off OOC that haven't played in years . Again, it still matters, but the results need to be put in complete perspective. For example, 2019, my 6-6 Bulldogs lost to Towson and Elon, but beat GaTech, lost to rival VMI for the first time in 14 years,...but beat rival and playoff bound Furman. Go figure. Weird stuff happens in conf games sometimes. Doesn't take away anything from Furman's very good win, but doesn't necessarily define the season quality of Elon's later opponents. But I'll give you points for persistence on this issue.

[SFA 93]

Central Arkansas is loaded and Abilene Christian might be a dark horse in the UAC.

I'll have to see the QB play from SFA and the effect of the loss of 3 starting receivers (1 to the NFL and 2 went FBS)

The Jacks may go run heavy this season with the return of their senior dominating OL and the talented RBs they have.

The defensive front and secondary are stacked, but thin at LB.

[Reign of Terrier]

There is no reason you should remember this, but in Speir's last 3 seasons, he won a total of 4 conference games. His last winning season (actually only his second, out of 9 seasons) was in 2017. In Bell's second year, he produced a winning record, 6-5, not great, but a winning season, and he won 4 conference games both seasons.

It's now his third year, and he has two very good recruiting classes under his belt and I think there will be significant improvement in both the offense and certainly the defense. While Bell is certainly an offense minded and driven head coach, he realizes he won't win a championship in the SoCon without a competitive defense. I believe there will be significant improvement there this season. We will know early, as we play Samford the second game, if he's devoted the resources to the defense, playing Arkansas, Samford, then Eastern Kentucky so early in the season, should put it to the test.

I guess you could say I'm approaching it more from the perspective that "Spier wasn't so bad" and Bell had a lot more to work with through personnel in his first season or two (I know, there was huge roster turnover, but still) compared to Spier. To me, Spier did a lot more building, and maybe he was somewhat bailed out by GSU and App jumping from the conference. In 2014-2015, scheduling was really the only thing hurting Western Carolina. In 2017, had they beaten Mercer, Spier may still be around, as he would have made the playoffs at 8-4 and 2 FBS losses. In the end, it was sporadic defensive play that did him in, as well as being reliant on star QBs to get the job done, who were also prone to injury.

I think you can definitely point to improvements in the depth and the defense, but I still think it's too early to say.

[FUBeAR]

While this was interesting, and telling to a degree, there is something to be said for familiarity. It's hard to compare a conference game between fairly familiar teams, and possibly a "rival," and a one-off OOC that haven't played in years . Again, it still matters, but the results need to be put in complete perspective. For example, 2019, my 6-6 Bulldogs lost to Towson and Elon, but beat GaTech, lost to rival VMI for the first time in 14 years,...but beat rival and playoff bound Furman. Go figure. Weird stuff happens in conf games sometimes. Doesn't take away anything from Furman's very good win, but doesn't necessarily define the season quality of Elon's later opponents. But I'll give you points for persistence on this issue.
These are interesting anecdotes from the bellhops’ best season in the past 7 years, but they have absolutely nothing to do with the righteous conclusion that the current/most recent quality of CAA Teams is certainly unworthy of 4+ At-Large bids to the FCS Playoffs, particularly when the much stronger SoCon has 2 Teams sitting at home that would have beaten Elon, William & Mary, Richmond, and/or Delaware by double digits.

Sure, it’s hard to get a handle on how ‘less than’ the CAA has become because they choose to hide their games inside some obscure streaming service, but we’ve seen what we’ve seen…and not much of it was very good. Richmond is the only Team that performed decently in the Playoffs. And, the Spiders were led by 2 Grad Transfers from a SoCon doormat.

FUBeAR cares not 1 iota about receiving “points for persistence.” FUBeAR, as we all should, cares about the Playoff Selection Committee doing a much better job than they have been doing in the past 6-8 years or so. Their decisions, despite claims to the contrary, are primarily influenced by Polls, Pundits, and Prognosticators, many of whom view these pages. They need to see / learn / know / report / represent the TRUTH versus lazily relying on the accepted narrative(s) around the CAA, the Big Sky, and the SoCon.

https://media.tenor.com/Imh9TAOUjt8AAAAM/savvy-potc.gif

[WestCoastAggie]

You REALLY think that bro? or are basing off of the past. I hope you are right for all of our sakes, but unless the love affair with the the CAA goes way beyond what I realize I really think last year changed things. Elon smoked, UNH lose to a PL (albeit very very good one), UDEL and W&M demolished by the cream of the FCS crop. I think the 15/16 team league may be seen as watered down when you combine with last years results. I guess the saving grace is aside from the obvious conferences there just are not enough very good teams to get to 24 but for some reason I feel a solid 7-4 from other major conference or surprise 9 win team from lesser conference getting nod over a "weak" or "cuspy" 8-3 CAA team- Hope you are right!

8-3 in the CAA means you're finishing in the top-5 of the conference.

[WestCoastAggie]

So…

William & Mary - 2023


Aug. 31: At Campbell - W - 20-17
Sept. 9: Wofford- W - 23-21
Sept. 16: at Charleston Southern - W - 12-7
Sept. 23: Maine - W - 14-13
Sept. 30: at Elon - L - 45-3
Oct. 7: at Virginia - L - 77-0
Oct. 21: Towson - W - 29-27
Oct. 28: Monmouth - W - 27-24
Nov. 4: at Albany - W - 21-20
Nov. 11: at Hampton - W - 17-14
Nov. 18: Richmond - L - 54-7

8-3 / 6-2 with…

Best Win (per Massey) over current #47 Wofford, SoCon doormat.
Best CAA Win (per Massey) over current #48 Monmouth.
No “good” losses (per any semi-intelligent human).

THIS gets The Tribe an At-Large Playoff bid?

FUBeAR doesn’t really doubt it…but it’s pretty clear what a mockery can be made of Playoff At-Large Selections with a 15 Team Conference

These are some pretty wild score predictions.

[FUBeAR]

These are some pretty wild score predictions.See Post #42

[MR. CHICKEN]

These are interesting anecdotes from the bellhops’ best season in the past 7 years, but they have absolutely nothing to do with the righteous conclusion that the current/most recent quality of CAA Teams is certainly unworthy of 4+ At-Large bids to the FCS Playoffs, particularly when the much stronger SoCon has 2 Teams sitting at home that would have beaten Elon, William & Mary, Richmond, and/or Delaware by double digits.

Sure, it’s hard to get a handle on how ‘less than’ the CAA has become because they choose to hide their games inside some obscure streaming service, but we’ve seen what we’ve seen…and not much of it was very good. Richmond is the only Team that performed decently in the Playoffs. And, the Spiders were led by 2 Grad Transfers from a SoCon doormat.

FUBeAR cares not 1 iota about receiving “points for persistence.” FUBeAR, as we all should, cares about the Playoff Selection Committee doing a much better job than they have been doing in the past 6-8 years or so. Their decisions, despite claims to the contrary, are primarily influenced by Polls, Pundits, and Prognosticators, many of whom view these pages. They need to see / learn / know / report / represent the TRUTH versus lazily relying on the accepted narrative(s) around the CAA, the Big Sky, and the SoCon.

https://media.tenor.com/Imh9TAOUjt8AAAAM/savvy-potc.gif

32945



.....THEY DO UH GOOD JOB...SEEIN' TRUTH....THRU DUH CAMPAIGNIN'....YER GREAT SOGONE.....HAD ONE FOOT...IN DUH PATRIOT....COUPLE YEARS AGO.......SO NOW 3-4 TEAMS HAVE AWAKEN...FROM LONG SNOOZES.....GET YER KICKS WHILE YA'S CAN........AWK!

[ElCid]

These are interesting anecdotes from the bellhops’ best season in the past 7 years, but they have absolutely nothing to do with the righteous conclusion that the current/most recent quality of CAA Teams is certainly unworthy of 4+ At-Large bids to the FCS Playoffs, particularly when the much stronger SoCon has 2 Teams sitting at home that would have beaten Elon, William & Mary, Richmond, and/or Delaware by double digits.

Sure, it’s hard to get a handle on how ‘less than’ the CAA has become because they choose to hide their games inside some obscure streaming service, but we’ve seen what we’ve seen…and not much of it was very good. Richmond is the only Team that performed decently in the Playoffs. And, the Spiders were led by 2 Grad Transfers from a SoCon doormat.

FUBeAR cares not 1 iota about receiving “points for persistence.” FUBeAR, as we all should, cares about the Playoff Selection Committee doing a much better job than they have been doing in the past 6-8 years or so. Their decisions, despite claims to the contrary, are primarily influenced by Polls, Pundits, and Prognosticators, many of whom view these pages. They need to see / learn / know / report / represent the TRUTH versus lazily relying on the accepted narrative(s) around the CAA, the Big Sky, and the SoCon.

https://media.tenor.com/Imh9TAOUjt8AAAAM/savvy-potc.gif

True, but I was merely stating the obvious about how it is not necessarily a good comparison looking at OOC games vs conf games. And that would be best year in 6 years not 7.

https://media.tenor.com/Imh9TAOUjt8AAAAM/savvy-potc.gif

[caribbeanhen]

These are interesting anecdotes from the bellhops’ best season in the past 7 years, but they have absolutely nothing to do with the righteous conclusion that the current/most recent quality of CAA Teams is certainly unworthy of 4+ At-Large bids to the FCS Playoffs, particularly when the much stronger SoCon has 2 Teams sitting at home that would have beaten Elon, William & Mary, Richmond, and/or Delaware by double digits.

Sure, it’s hard to get a handle on how ‘less than’ the CAA has become because they choose to hide their games inside some obscure streaming service, but we’ve seen what we’ve seen…and not much of it was very good. Richmond is the only Team that performed decently in the Playoffs. And, the Spiders were led by 2 Grad Transfers from a SoCon doormat.

FUBeAR cares not 1 iota about receiving “points for persistence.” FUBeAR, as we all should, cares about the Playoff Selection Committee doing a much better job than they have been doing in the past 6-8 years or so. Their decisions, despite claims to the contrary, are primarily influenced by Polls, Pundits, and Prognosticators, many of whom view these pages. They need to see / learn / know / report / represent the TRUTH versus lazily relying on the accepted narrative(s) around the CAA, the Big Sky, and the SoCon.

https://media.tenor.com/Imh9TAOUjt8AAAAM/savvy-potc.gif


Stop!!!

The CAA got the benifit of the doubt last year but to say that Chattanooga and Mercer would have beaten Richmond, Williamsburg and Delaware by double digits is FuBar and you know it, but entertaining for sure. Mercer is the third good team in the Southern conference but beyond that…. Show me

Who is the committee member that had admitted to surfing FCS message boards?

[FUBeAR]

Chattanooga and Mercer would have beaten Richmond, Williamsburg and Delaware by double digits
Yep

[caribbeanhen]

Last year, Wofford hosted Elon and got beat by the visitors 26-0

Samford hosted Wofford and managed a 28-14 win

Elon > Samford by FuBearS methods

[FUBeAR]

Last year, Wofford hosted Elon and got beat by the visitors 26-0

Samford hosted Wofford and managed a 28-14 win

Elon > Samford by FuBearS methodsWofford’s Coach when they played Elon…

https://compote.slate.com/images/26572c3a-0e51-4a9f-9049-b64e730ca75d.jpg

Wofford: 0-15 in 15 games before their EvilClown Head Coach ran away to ruin a different circus in Arkansas. The loss to Elon was #12 on that Hit Parade.

Wofford: .500 under Coach EvilClown’s replacement, including the Samford game.

The freed-from-terror Terriers would have beaten Elon by at least 1 score in November.


Why you chickens stretching your wings out so far…reaching to grab something that is just not there? You’re gonna sprain a drummie.

[Paladin1aa]

It’s possible Youngstown St. might be one of those teams. I see loses to Ohio State and SDSU which would leave them 9-2. The long shot is if they can avoid losing at UNI in their gym. YSU never plays well in the gym, even with good teams. Even 8-3 might get them ranked and seeded.

[Reign of Terrier]

This thread has sort of gone off topic (which I think is actually fine because this place is dead relative to what it used to be), so I'll just chime in on the Elon-Wofford thing.

I don't know if Wofford beats Elon later in the year, but it sure as heck would have higher scoring. The first 6 games of last year was probably an all-time worst offensive performance by Wofford, and it was a combination of Watson's offense being harder understand than other offenses (the mid-year kick makes sense in this light, and Watson offenses do great in their second year relative to their first) and just an environment of absolute malaise under Conklin. I wouldn't invest too much in the outcomes of the first 5 Wofford games last year, simply because both Elon and Chattanooga didn't need to show their full offense to beat us (and they figured that out in the first 20 minutes), Samford was probably closer than it should have been (maybe Hatcher felt bad for us), and Mercer was sort of the apex of demoralization.

Does the game go differently in week 11 as opposed to game one? Probably, but that doesn't mean Wofford wins. Wofford got better over the course of the year, but so did Elon. Wofford found some plays that worked, our defense sort of regressed for various reasons. I think it is interesting that Wofford scored more times in its first 2 possessions against Furman than Elon did the next week through 60 minutes. I think that says more about match ups and play style though, because by the same token Furman scored less against Elon.

Elon is really the only team that has played the Socon consistently, and their results have been mixed, with early season matchups (whether it be 2018 stomping Furman or 2021 losing to 1-10 Wofford) seem to be poor indicators of the final product of either team. A couple trends I do notice is the style of play the CAA teams that make it to the playoffs emphasizes the run, and that's becoming less of a thing in the Socon, and yet the Socon seems to still be better at stopping the run when they play the CAA in the playoffs (sans JMU of course). But again, that's a sample size of literally just Elon with that latter point.

If I'm betting on the future of the CAA, I'm betting on teams like Richmond, W&M, and Elon, who are attempting to play these tougher Southern schools OOC to strengthen their iron. Even if it doesn't create optimal outcomes in the win/loss column, the inclusion of all these formerly non-full-scholarship schools into the CAA with lots of the conference playing weak Pioneer/Patriot OOC will dilute the CAA's product, at least short term, and so a tough OOC is important to offset it.

[caribbeanhen]

Wofford’s Coach when they played Elon…

https://compote.slate.com/images/26572c3a-0e51-4a9f-9049-b64e730ca75d.jpg

Wofford: 0-15 in 15 games before their EvilClown Head Coach ran away to ruin a different circus in Arkansas. The loss to Elon was #12 on that Hit Parade.

Wofford: .500 under Coach EvilClown’s replacement, including the Samford game.

The freed-from-terror Terriers would have beaten Elon by at least 1 score in November.


Why you chickens stretching your wings out so far…reaching to grab something that is just not there? You’re gonna sprain a drummie.

Just posted some final scores

lmao at the irony here

[caribbeanhen]

This thread has sort of gone off topic (which I think is actually fine because this place is dead relative to what it used to be), so I'll just chime in on the Elon-Wofford thing.

I don't know if Wofford beats Elon later in the year, but it sure as heck would have higher scoring. The first 6 games of last year was probably an all-time worst offensive performance by Wofford, and it was a combination of Watson's offense being harder understand than other offenses (the mid-year kick makes sense in this light, and Watson offenses do great in their second year relative to their first) and just an environment of absolute malaise under Conklin. I wouldn't invest too much in the outcomes of the first 5 Wofford games last year, simply because both Elon and Chattanooga didn't need to show their full offense to beat us (and they figured that out in the first 20 minutes), Samford was probably closer than it should have been (maybe Hatcher felt bad for us), and Mercer was sort of the apex of demoralization.

Does the game go differently in week 11 as opposed to game one? Probably, but that doesn't mean Wofford wins. Wofford got better over the course of the year, but so did Elon. Wofford found some plays that worked, our defense sort of regressed for various reasons. I think it is interesting that Wofford scored more times in its first 2 possessions against Furman than Elon did the next week through 60 minutes. I think that says more about match ups and play style though, because by the same token Furman scored less against Elon.

Elon is really the only team that has played the Socon consistently, and their results have been mixed, with early season matchups (whether it be 2018 stomping Furman or 2021 losing to 1-10 Wofford) seem to be poor indicators of the final product of either team. A couple trends I do notice is the style of play the CAA teams that make it to the playoffs emphasizes the run, and that's becoming less of a thing in the Socon, and yet the Socon seems to still be better at stopping the run when they play the CAA in the playoffs (sans JMU of course). But again, that's a sample size of literally just Elon with that latter point.

If I'm betting on the future of the CAA, I'm betting on teams like Richmond, W&M, and Elon, who are attempting to play these tougher Southern schools OOC to strengthen their iron. Even if it doesn't create optimal outcomes in the win/loss column, the inclusion of all these formerly non-full-scholarship schools into the CAA with lots of the conference playing weak Pioneer/Patriot OOC will dilute the CAA's product, at least short term, and so a tough OOC is important to offset it.

tougher? There all playing Wofford who hasn’t been tough for a long time

[FUBeAR]

Just posted some final scores

lmao at the irony hereThe definition of irony is something with which FUBeAR has always struggled.

Does it mean, “All of my conference’s Playoff Teams sucked and got taken to the woodshed by any decent Team they faced in the Playoffs, but I want to pretend that didn’t happen?”

[caribbeanhen]

The definition of irony is something with which FUBeAR has always struggled.

Does it mean, “All of my conference’s Playoff Teams sucked and got taken to the woodshed by any decent Team they faced in the Playoffs, but I want to pretend that didn’t happen?”

I provided you with a rundown of the CAA playoff performance on a thread and I’m pretty sure you agreed with it

[Reign of Terrier]

tougher? There all playing Wofford who hasn’t been tough for a long time

Big word considering Wofford's only lost once to the CAA since 2008

[EKU05]

I'm not saying we'll be seeded, but I think AGS is sleeping on this EKU team by having them outside the top 25 entirely. We'll see how far the defense has come, but I really think our offense is going to be able to score at will a lot of weeks.

That said, we may not learn a ton from the first two games with two P5 opponents right off the bat.

[atthewbon]

My view on the SOCON vs CAA argument as an outsider. The CAA has slipped from where it was with the loss of JMU, and the SOCON has gotten a little better but until the SOCON does something in the playoffs its hard to say its overtaken the CAA IMO. Looking at a couple games played by one team against a conference is no justification for it being better than another.

[atthewbon]

Back to the original topic if anyone comes out of the UAC relatively unscathed they have a good shot.

[ElCid]

Big word considering Wofford's only lost once to the CAA since 2008

Well you only played them 5 times since and including 2008 so its not a huge data pool to judge too much. Including 2008 loss to JMU, you are 3-2 which ain't bad with playoffs at 2-1 and regular season 1-1. But the wins were Elon twice, loss once, and NH win.

I would think most SOCON could play a CAA at least every other year at minimum (1 FBS, 1 MEAC/CAA/Big So/OVC). But even if we do, it will be one of the newbies down south most likely, or Richmond or W&M. It probably won't happen for the far NE CAA teams due to travel. It's a long way from Alabama, middle Ga, or Charleston to NH, Maine or even RI, NY, or Long Island.

[FUBeAR]

My view on the SOCON vs CAA argument as an outsider. The CAA has slipped from where it was with the loss of JMU, and the SOCON has gotten a little better but until the SOCON does something in the playoffs its hard to say its overtaken the CAA IMO. Looking at a couple games played by one team against a conference is no justification for it being better than another.

"...a couple games played by one team..." - is that what you did?

We've been looking at multiple games played by multiple Teams over multiple seasons.

As was clearly shown in another thread, this mythical "conference strength is only defined by (some arbitrary way the claimant wants to parse) playoff results" is an inherently flawed metric even if the claimant didn't try to cherry pick the parameters to support his/her claim....which pretty much never happens.

How did the University of Georgia do in the NFL Playoffs last season? How far did they get? Did the Bulldogs outperform the AFC East and underperform the NFC Central. Did the SEC or the AFC West get more Teams to the Division Championship Games? What about the NBA Playoffs - surely Georgia is better than the Lakers! Who was better last season in The Cup - the Flyers or the Red Wings or University of Georgia Football?

Oh - you can't analyze any of that because the Team FUBeAR wants you to assess didn't PLAY in those Playoffs. Now extrapolate that to FCS Playoffs and you SHOULD be able to start to understand the fallacy of the "PLAYOFFS. YOU'RE TALKIN' ABOUT PLAYOFFS" argument. If not, just think of Jim Mora Sr. every time you start to use that extremely flawed metric in an argument and you'll be good.

And...if you don't like the multiple games played by multiple Teams across multiple season that we've been discussing, you can just accept that Massey AND Sagarin both have the SoCon ranked ahead of the CAA...and be on your way.

[caribbeanhen]

Big word considering Wofford's only lost once to the CAA since 2008

2003 was a big loss for mighty Wofford at Delaware

[KPSUL]

My view on the SOCON vs CAA argument as an outsider. The CAA has slipped from where it was with the loss of JMU, and the SOCON has gotten a little better but until the SOCON does something in the playoffs its hard to say its overtaken the CAA IMO. Looking at a couple games played by one team against a conference is no justification for it being better than another.

Well said. At the moment there is no significant evidence to say that either of the two conferences is better than the other.

[FUBeAR]

Well said. At the moment there is no significant evidence to say that either of the two conferences is better than the other.
That's true if you ignore all of the evidence that the SoCon is far superior to the CAA.

FUBeAR is having deja vu with some other situation right now - some kind of current event - where people are choosing to ignore actual evidence and say there is no evidence...can't place it though .... dang.

[atthewbon]

"...a couple games played by one team..." - is that what you did?

We've been looking at multiple games played by multiple Teams over multiple seasons.

As was clearly shown in another thread, this mythical "conference strength is only defined by (some arbitrary way the claimant wants to parse) playoff results" is an inherently flawed metric even if the claimant didn't try to cherry pick the parameters to support his/her claim....which pretty much never happens.

How did the University of Georgia do in the NFL Playoffs last season? How far did they get? Did the Bulldogs outperform the AFC East and underperform the NFC Central. Did the SEC or the AFC West get more Teams to the Division Championship Games? What about the NBA Playoffs - surely Georgia is better than the Lakers! Who was better last season in The Cup - the Flyers or the Red Wings or University of Georgia Football?

Oh - you can't analyze any of that because the Team FUBeAR wants you to assess didn't PLAY in those Playoffs. Now extrapolate that to FCS Playoffs and you SHOULD be able to start to understand the fallacy of the "PLAYOFFS. YOU'RE TALKIN' ABOUT PLAYOFFS" argument. If not, just think of Jim Mora Sr. every time you start to use that extremely flawed metric in an argument and you'll be good.

And...if you don't like the multiple games played by multiple Teams across multiple season that we've been discussing, you can just accept that Massey AND Sagarin both have the SoCon ranked ahead of the CAA...and be on your way.

Dude what are you even talking about with the NFL and NBA. It’s not cherrypicking, the SOCON has at least one team in the playoffs every year and often more and they never go far. The majority of the recent CAA vs SOCON games have been played by Elon (one team) so that’s why I think it’s unfair to just look at that. If you go back further to include more teams it doesn’t look so good for the SOCON (1-5 vs CAA in 2018-2019). Conference strength isn’t only based off playoff success but that’s when a lot of the non conference games are played in FCS football against similar level schools. It’s hard to rank conference strength in the FCS because there are so few data points but the playoffs is the best one.

And with all that being said, I still think the SOCON and CAA are pretty comparable in terms of conference strength but I give a slight edge to the CAA.


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[FUBeAR]

Dude what are you even talking about with the NFL and NBA. It’s not cherrypicking, the SOCON has at least one team in the playoffs every year and often more and they never go far. The majority of the recent CAA vs SOCON games have been played by Elon (one team) so that’s why I think it’s unfair to just look at that. If you go back further to include more teams it doesn’t look so good for the SOCON (1-5 vs CAA in 2018-2019). Conference strength isn’t only based off playoff success but that’s when a lot of the non conference games are played in FCS football against similar level schools. It’s hard to rank conference strength in the FCS because there are so few data points but the playoffs is the best one.

And with all that being said, I still think the SOCON and CAA are pretty comparable in terms of conference strength but I give a slight edge to the CAA.
FUBeAR gave you too much extrapolation aptitude credit.

No worries. It’s an advanced skill.

On the other hand, failing to internalize Jim Mora Sr. Admonishment just continues to be a blind spot. Your perspective makes it difficult for you not to have that issue. FUBeAR gets it.

And, finally…it’s OK to be wrong…as long as you admit it without quibbling once you realize your error.

[Reign of Terrier]

What's great about the FCS media and playoff structure is that they're also bad now that you can almost always count on a team "coming out of nowhere" to get seeded or go on a run, because the system heavily favors the bubble teams of some conferences over another. Because we have the commentariat who doesn't realize that a team can't make a deep run in the playoffs if they're not put in in the first place

[atthewbon]

FUBeAR gave you too much extrapolation aptitude credit.

No worries. It’s an advanced skill.

On the other hand, failing to internalize Jim Mora Sr. Admonishment just continues to be a blind spot. Your perspective makes it difficult for you not to have that issue. FUBeAR gets it.

And, finally…it’s OK to be wrong…as long as you admit it without quibbling once you realize your error.

"We've been looking at multiple games played by multiple Teams over multiple seasons."
Since the 2018 season the SOCON has a 3-7 record vs the CAA... that's multiple games played by multiple teams over multiple seasons...

It's not fair to look at the number of deep playoff runs because the CAA gets more teams has been argued...
The SOCON has had 8 teams make the playoffs since 2018 and acheived a 4-8 record. The CAA excluding JMU has had 14 teams with a 10-14 record. The CAA has a better record than the SOCON even with these "underserving teams" making it... I even made sure to go make and include the CAA's horrible 2018 playoff performance.

You may hate the playoffs, but you have to look at playoffs when comparing conferences in the FCS because the typical two game FCS non conference is not a large enough sample size (Elon played SOCON teams 2 times the past two years) and typically includes top teams from one conference facing up against bottom teams from another (how fair is it if we only base the CAA vs SOCON on the W&M vs Wofford game this year?). I'd be nice if more conferences do challenges like the MVFC and Big Sky have been sorta doing.

The CAA has been better than the SOCON the last 5 years even if you exclude JMU. I think the SOCON is catching up and the two leagues are pretty similar this year but it's hard for me to say the SOCON is better with how much they have struggled in the playoffs... Massey and Sagrain might say they are slightly better this preseason, and the SOCON seems to have more top tier teams compared to the CAA this year, but I'll have to see it to believe it. Again, as I have said, I don't think there is much separating these two very different conferences this year (the bottom of the CAA looks to be pretty bad), but if I had to lean one way I'd lean to the conference that has been more successful the past few years.

BTW your argument is just simply ridiculous, you can't "extrapolate" Georgia not playing in the Stanley Cup to the SOCON getting less bids (meaning only their best teams played so they should have a better record) and still having a worse record than JMU-less CAA in the playoffs.

[KPSUL]

"We've been looking at multiple games played by multiple Teams over multiple seasons."
Since the 2018 season the SOCON has a 3-7 record vs the CAA... that's multiple games played by multiple teams over multiple seasons...

It's not fair to look at the number of deep playoff runs because the CAA gets more teams has been argued...
The SOCON has had 8 teams make the playoffs since 2018 and acheived a 4-8 record. The CAA excluding JMU has had 14 teams with a 10-14 record. The CAA has a better record than the SOCON even with these "underserving teams" making it... I even made sure to go make and include the CAA's horrible 2018 playoff performance.

You may hate the playoffs, but you have to look at playoffs when comparing conferences in the FCS because the typical two game FCS non conference is not a large enough sample size (Elon played SOCON teams 2 times the past two years) and typically includes top teams from one conference facing up against bottom teams from another (how fair is it if we only base the CAA vs SOCON on the W&M vs Wofford game this year?). I'd be nice if more conferences do challenges like the MVFC and Big Sky have been sorta doing.

The CAA has been better than the SOCON the last 5 years even if you exclude JMU. I think the SOCON is catching up and the two leagues are pretty similar this year but it's hard for me to say the SOCON is better with how much they have struggled in the playoffs... Massey and Sagrain might say they are slightly better this preseason, and the SOCON seems to have more top tier teams compared to the CAA this year, but I'll have to see it to believe it. Again, as I have said, I don't think there is much separating these two very different conferences this year (the bottom of the CAA looks to be pretty bad), but if I had to lean one way I'd lean to the conference that has been more successful the past few years.

BTW your argument is just simply ridiculous, you can't "extrapolate" Georgia not playing in the Stanley Cup to the SOCON getting less bids (meaning only their best teams played so they should have a better record) and still having a worse record than JMU-less CAA in the playoffs.

Good job tracking all this down! One question, do the 14 losses for the CAA include the two current CAA teams that lost to JMU in the playoffs in 2018 and 2019? If so I'm thinking they should not. If the goal is to remove the JMU effect from the equation than the CAA total would end up being 10-12 vs the SoCon's 4-8.

[FUBeAR]

The "Goal" is to compare Current SoCon Teams to Current CAA Teams to determine which Conference is stronger. Didn't finish reading the prior post, but 1st glance appeared to by 'lobbying' to include JMU results to evaluate current Conference Strength....Sure - FUBeAR will take Marshall, GaSou, and Appy for $1,000, Alex. Obviously, that ish makes no f'in sense, so FUBeAR ain't even studyin' that ish for a second.

Since y'all refuse to accept widely-recognized 'sources of truth' on this topic - such as FUBeAR's assessment or Massey or Sagarin or this picture...

https://images.sidearmdev.com/resize?url=https%3a%2f%2fdxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront. net%2fsidearm.nextgen.sites%2ffurmanpaladins.com%2 fimages%2f2022%2f11%2f27%2fHuff_TD_ImGzD.jpg&width=1416&type=jpeg

And, FUBeAR is a bear of very little brain, but y'all made his CTE-affected cranial region have to work. There really is no question as to the correct answer here, but....let's call on SCIENCE (and Math...which IS a Science...and it's not racist)...to end this...

Let's look at the SCIENCE...

https://i.postimg.cc/26ZjzvK2/So-Con-vs-CAA-Results-Trend-2014-2022.jpg


We all know HEAD-TO-HEAD is the best way to settle an issue. This is a scatter-plot of all head-to-head contests between current CAA Teams and current SoCon Teams since 2014. Not an arbitrary date - that's when GaSou and Appy (and Elon) checked out....so it only makes sense to use that as the starting point for our analysis.

To understand the chart - each blue dot is a game - charted against the date of the game (X-Axis) - a Y-Axis negative number is the point differential in favor of the CAA Team if the CAA Team won and a positive number represents the same for SoCon Teams.

The straight red line running 'uphill' from left to right is the Linear Trend Line plotted as using something like 'least squares' or some other fancy math term.

So...it's kinda easy to see why y'all may be misled. Historically (12/12/2014 is the beginning of this history), current CAA Teams were beating SoCon Teams and beating them rather handily...but that has changed over time....which is why the trend line 'ran uphill.'

And you know what...when it crossed ZERO was the day that we can SCIENTIFICALLY say is the day that the SoCon left the CAA in it's dust.

FUBeAR eyeballs that to be sometime last Fall.

Oh...and via the magic of Trend Analysis - we have forecast forward 8 'periods'....Looks like the forecast is calling for double-digit SoCon victories in the future.

Science - case closed - FUBeAR and his very tired and very little brain are OUT!

[UNHWildcat18]

Fu holding onto the win over Elon last season is getting a little sad. It’s like uncle Rico

[Reign of Terrier]

Are we really drawing sweeping conclusions about the CAA's superiority when, on the top of my head, all the matchups have been Elon getting worked by the best teams (Wofford, Furman), Towson beating a meh citadel team, and JMU playing Chattanooga. Top of my head that's all of the matchups. The fact that the Citadel is like 0-4 skews the data pretty bad. Like, yes, you also have Elon crushing Wofford last season, but Wofford's 2-1 against the CAA in that time frame. Furman is 2-2. Chattanooga has as bad a record against JMU as any CAA member (and they were rebuilding when they played), and the Citadel played Towson/Elon as competitive as they do the socon, so I don't really see this is as the sweeping conclusion as you'd think. Whenever the non-JMU CAA plays a top socon team, it's not typically great.

[atthewbon]

Good job tracking all this down! One question, do the 14 losses for the CAA include the two current CAA teams that lost to JMU in the playoffs in 2018 and 2019? If so I'm thinking they should not. If the goal is to remove the JMU effect from the equation then WIW the CAA total would end up being 10-12 vs the SoCon's 4-8.I didn’t exclude the loss to JMU or the results of new CAA teams though I thought about it. I just didn’t want to spend that much time on it. Removing the loss to JMU would also raise the question of removing results from SHSU and Kennesaw. But regardless the CAA has a better record than the SOCON in the last 5 playoffs.

edit
FWIW I think the record for new CAA teams is 1-2 (Monmouth)

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[caribbeanhen]

If I'm betting on the future of the CAA, I'm betting on teams like Richmond, W&M, and Elon, who are attempting to play these tougher Southern schools OOC to strengthen their iron. Even if it doesn't create optimal outcomes in the win/loss column, the inclusion of all these formerly non-full-scholarship schools into the CAA with lots of the conference playing weak Pioneer/Patriot OOC will dilute theCAA's product, at least short term, and so a tough OOC is important to offset it.

so you’re not betting on Delaware because you think they’ll be moving up?

[atthewbon]

Are we really drawing sweeping conclusions about the CAA's superiority when, on the top of my head, all the matchups have been Elon getting worked by the best teams (Wofford, Furman), Towson beating a meh citadel team, and JMU playing Chattanooga. Top of my head that's all of the matchups. The fact that the Citadel is like 0-4 skews the data pretty bad. Like, yes, you also have Elon crushing Wofford last season, but Wofford's 2-1 against the CAA in that time frame. Furman is 2-2. Chattanooga has as bad a record against JMU as any CAA member (and they were rebuilding when they played), and the Citadel played Towson/Elon as competitive as they do the socon, so I don't really see this is as the sweeping conclusion as you'd think. Whenever the non-JMU CAA plays a top socon team, it's not typically great.

That’s my whole argument. I don’t think there is enough information to draw any sweeping conclusions. FCS teams just don’t play enough non conference games to make analysis like this statistically significant unless you go back many years, but thens things change so the data becomes less and less relevant. I think the two conferences are at a similar level. Just if I was pressed to say one is better I would lean towards the CAA because of their more recent playoff success.


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[FUBeAR]

That’s my whole argument. I don’t think there is enough information to draw any sweeping conclusions. FCS teams just don’t play enough non conference games to make analysis like this statistically significant unless you go back many years, but thens things change so the data becomes less and less relevant. I think the two conferences are at a similar level. Just if I was pressed to say one is better I would lean towards the CAA because of their more recent playoff success.Final tool/resource FUBeAR is going to provide for you…

Every time you have the urge to even begin thinking that using Playoff results is even the slightest bit sufficiently helpful in drawing valid inferences with regard to relative strength of 1 conference to another, just click the PLAY Arrow Button repeatedly and let Coach Mora be your guide. Keep pressing PLAY until your compulsion subsides.


https://youtu.be/0je47FpCBFE

[atthewbon]

Final tool/resource FUBeAR is going to provide for you…

Every time you have the urge to even begin thinking that using Playoff results is even the slightest bit sufficiently helpful in drawing valid inferences with regard to relative strength of 1 conference to another, just click the PLAY Arrow Button repeatedly and let Coach Mora be your guide. Keep pressing PLAY until your compulsion subsides.


https://youtu.be/0je47FpCBFE

Cmon man the playoffs are important. I seem to remember your cherry picked results from a couple months ago that showed the SOCON had a better playoff record if you exclude second round games being significant. Again there is just not enough data to do any real significant analysis on this argument.

[FUBeAR]

Cmon man the playoffs are important. I seem to remember your cherry picked results from a couple months ago that showed the SOCON had a better playoff record if you exclude second round games being significant. Again there is just not enough data to do any real significant analysis on this argument.
Now…you’re just making **** up…which FUBeAR doesn’t appreciate….or you just fail to understand the meaning of “cherry-picking” and/or you are unable to apply it correctly.

FUBeAR did a thorough analysis of ALL 24/8 era Playoff Results data - seeking to determine what, if any, valid inferences around Playoff Selection / Playoff Seeding / Value of Home games / Value of Seeds / Value of the level of the Seeds / etc. could be gleaned from more deeply examining this data. This was a study of Playoff results using Playoff results data. The study (slicing & dicing the data using a variety of parameters, controls, and limitations based upon realities) led to the inferences that could be drawn. A wide variety of results from this study / data analysis were published and discussed. This is the EXACT OPPOSITE of “cherry picking.”

You, OTOH, are doing the equivalent of taking Temperature data and using it to draw inferences about Snowfall. The data is related and may be broadly correlated, but it is not determinant. Antarctica gets about 2” of snow / year for example - less than Atlanta, but it’s the coldest place on earth. Whether you do a full study, cherry-pick, or jump down, turnaround, and pick a bale of cotton, you aren’t really learning anything relevant because the premise that the data is determinant is flawed.

There are 15 clearly relevant data points included in the scatter-plot / time-series / trend analysis FUBeAR provided. Some of those data points are Playoff games. Playoffs are important, as is the arrival of Yellow-Legged Hornets in Georgia, but neither event is valid as an exclusive tool to assess relative qualitative differences of one conference vis a vis another.

It’s easy to perceive that you are married to and deeply committed to the invalid assessment tool you have chosen. FUBeAR gets it. Flat-Earthers have a hard time seeing over the horizon.

[Reign of Terrier]

One thing interesting about the CAA that I just realized/looked up is that outside of JMU, that in the last 5 years, most teams don't make the playoffs in consecutive years. You'd have to go back to 2018 to pick the last time a CAA team made the playoffs in consecutive years (Elon), though if you put a mulligan on the COVID year you could definitely make the case that Villanova did too.

I'm not bringing this up in the context of the socon/CAA beef right now, but just to point out there's a big void at the top of the CAA (for example, Wofford's the only socon team to make the playoffs in consecutive years during that time frame too). Given the volatility in the non-JMU teams of the last few years, someone unexpected could grab the CAA crown and a seed.

[atthewbon]

Now…you’re just making **** up…which FUBeAR doesn’t appreciate….or you just fail to understand the meaning of “cherry-picking” and/or you are unable to apply it correctly.

FUBeAR did a thorough analysis of ALL 24/8 era Playoff Results data - seeking to determine what, if any, valid inferences around Playoff Selection / Playoff Seeding / Value of Home games / Value of Seeds / Value of the level of the Seeds / etc. could be gleaned from more deeply examining this data. This was a study of Playoff results by Conference using Playoff results data. The study (slicing & dicing the data using a variety of parameters, controls, and limitations based upon realities) led to the inferences that could be drawn. This is the EXACT OPPOSITE of “cherry picking.”

You are doing the equivalent of taking Temperature data and using it to draw inferences about Snowfall. The data is related and may be broadly correlated, but it is not determinant. Antarctica gets about 2” of snow / year for example - less than Atlanta, but it’s the coldest place on earth.

There are 15 clearly relevant data points included in the scatter-plot / trend analysis FUBeAR provided. Some of those data points are Playoff games. Playoffs are important, as is the arrival of Yellow-Legged Hornets in Georgia, but neither event is valid as an exclusive tool to assess relative qualitative differences of one conference vis a vis another.

It’s easy to perceive that you are married to and deeply committed to the invalid assessment tool you have chosen. FUBeAR gets it. Flat-Earthers have a hard time seeing over the horizon.

A trend analysis like that is a horrible way of analyzing this, in particular because the entire "trend" you found was caused by the sole result of one game (an outlier) at the very end skewing the data. There is hardly any correlation between the dates of these games and the scoring differential. The sample size is just not large enough to do something like this accurately. Let alone the problems that arise using scoring differential in a small sample size, as they can be skewed drastically with garbage time TDs. The 5-10 record vs CAA teams in this time period is much more telling and even that doesn't paint a very good picture because it completely excludes many teams in these two conferences.

My "invalid" assessment tool is conference vs conference record and playoff success. Yours is the trend of conference vs conference scoring differential (that is heavily skewed by one recent outlier) and playoff success minus 2nd round games because they are unfair. Even using your tools, the CAA still performs better in the playoffs, and the trend line you have of scoring differential is basically at 0. And then you are projecting out the minor trend you saw in scoring differential to say the SOCON has overtaken the CAA because a minor correlation must mean causation and the trend will continue...

[atthewbon]

One thing interesting about the CAA that I just realized/looked up is that outside of JMU, that in the last 5 years, most teams don't make the playoffs in consecutive years. You'd have to go back to 2018 to pick the last time a CAA team made the playoffs in consecutive years (Elon), though if you put a mulligan on the COVID year you could definitely make the case that Villanova did too.

I'm not bringing this up in the context of the socon/CAA beef right now, but just to point out there's a big void at the top of the CAA (for example, Wofford's the only socon team to make the playoffs in consecutive years during that time frame too). Given the volatility in the non-JMU teams of the last few years, someone unexpected could grab the CAA crown and a seed.

That is very interesting. I think it speaks to the similarities between the conferences. Both conferences have a power vacuum with they respective top teams leaving and no team has yet to jump up and take over in either conference.

[KPSUL]

The "Goal" is to compare Current SoCon Teams to Current CAA Teams to determine which Conference is stronger. Didn't finish reading the prior post, but 1st glance appeared to by 'lobbying' to include JMU results to evaluate current Conference Strength....Sure - FUBeAR will take Marshall, GaSou, and Appy for $1,000, Alex. Obviously, that ish makes no f'in sense, so FUBeAR ain't even studyin' that ish for a second.

Since y'all refuse to accept widely-recognized 'sources of truth' on this topic - such as FUBeAR's assessment or Massey or Sagarin or this picture...

Let's look at the SCIENCE...



Actually we are not looking at science. Any statistician would tell you that you have far too few data points to achieve statistical significance and therefore nothing can be accurately concluded about the relative strength of the conferences. And trying to use it for trend analysis for the out years is absurd. However, from a purely anecdotal standpoint, your charted data makes a compelling nonscientific argument for parity between the CAA and SoCon. The record for last two games between the conferences? 1 win each. Last four game record? 2 wins each. Last six game record? 3 wins each.

Thanks for researching this and presenting the data!

[FUBeAR]

A trend analysis like that is a horrible way of analyzing this, in particular because the entire "trend" you found was caused by the sole result of one game (an outlier) at the very end skewing the data. There is hardly any correlation between the dates of these games and the scoring differential. The sample size is just not large enough to do something like this accurately. Let alone the problems that arise using scoring differential in a small sample size, as they can be skewed drastically with garbage time TDs. The 5-10 record vs CAA teams in this time period is much more telling and even that doesn't paint a very good picture because it completely excludes many teams in these two conferences.

My "invalid" assessment tool is conference vs conference record and playoff success. Yours is the trend of conference vs conference scoring differential (that is heavily skewed by one recent outlier) and playoff success minus 2nd round games because they are unfair. Even using your tools, the CAA still performs better in the playoffs, and the trend line you have of scoring differential is basically at 0. And then you are projecting out the minor trend you saw in scoring differential to say the SOCON has overtaken the CAA because a minor correlation must mean causation and the trend will continue...

Exactly! You nailed it!

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/VKCZFcaxPK74spXjVqwLwi.jpg

[atthewbon]

Actually we are not looking at science. Any statistician would tell you that you have far too few data points to achieve statistical significance and therefore nothing can be accurately concluded about the relative strength of the conferences. And trying to use it for trend analysis for the out years is absurd. However, from a purely anecdotal standpoint, your charted data makes a compelling nonscientific argument for parity between the CAA and SoCon. The record for last two games between the conferences? 1 win each. Last four game record? 2 wins each. Last six game record? 3 wins each.

Thanks for researching this and presenting the data!

^This

[KPSUL]

That is very interesting. I think it speaks to the similarities between the conferences. Both conferences have a power vacuum with they respective top teams leaving and no team has yet to jump up and take over in either conference.

I know you are not saying otherwise, but I don't think it is a good thing to have one clearly dominant team in a conference for more than a year or two at a time. That is what was great about the CAA from like 2005 thru 2015. Numerous teams had brief periods on top of the conference and a bunch of different teams won National Championships and almost everyone made the playoffs at some point except Rhode Island. That's what I'd like to see for the future of the CAA, or really any conference. I don't miss JMU's 5 full seasons of CAA dominance, ending in 2021 with their move to the Sun Belt for 2022. They lost only three conference games in those seasons (for the Record: Elon, UNH and Villanova). They by no means played a tough OOC FCS schedule, but I don't think they lost any of those games.

NDSU dominated the MVFC for about twice that long and put up conference and OOC records even more impressive. I'm sure that had a negative impact on the rest of the conference with the possible exception of your Jacks as they came close to unseating the kings on several occasions before finally doing it in 2022.

[FUBeAR]

Actually we are not looking at science. Any statistician would tell you that you have far too few data points to achieve statistical significance and therefore nothing can be accurately concluded about the relative strength of the conferences. And trying to use it for trend analysis for the out years is absurd.
Thanks for researching this and presenting the data!Really?

Sample size calculator



What margin of error can you accept?
20%
The margin of error is the amount of error that you can tolerate. (FUBeAR is an 80/20 Pareto Principle guy)


What confidence level do you need?
80%
The confidence level is the amount of uncertainty you can tolerate. (FUBeAR is an 80/20 Pareto Principle guy)


What is the population size?
If you don't know, use 20000
20,000
In this case - "population" is the number of games played - so X teams times 11 or 12 games times 8 years....something like that. Regardless - will just leave it at 20,000 because .... "The sample size doesn't change much for populations larger than 20,000."


Your recommended sample size is:

11

Welp - FUBeAR's sample size was n=15.



"...trying to use it for trend analysis for the out years is absurd." That's EXACTLY what trend analysis is used for - projecting future outcomes based upon the trend of the existing data over time.

Thanks for playing...also.

[FUBeAR]

^This is wrong
FYP

[atthewbon]

I know you are not saying otherwise, but I don't think it is a good thing to have one clearly dominant team in a conference for more than a year or two at a time. That is what was great about the CAA from like 2005 thru 2015. Numerous teams had brief periods on top of the conference and a bunch of different teams won National Championships and almost everyone made the playoffs at some point except Rhode Island. That's what I'd like to see for the future of the CAA, or really any conference. I don't miss JMU's 5 full seasons of CAA dominance, ending in 2021 with their move to the Sun Belt for 2022. They lost only three conference games in the those seasons (for the Record Elon, UNH and Villanova). They by no means played a tough OOC FCS schedule, but I don't think they lost any of those games.

NDSU dominated the MVFC for about twice that long and put up conference and OOC records even more impressive. I'm sure that had a negative impact on the rest of the conference with the possible exception of your Jacks as they came close to unseating the kings on several occasions before finally doing it in 2022.

I agree. Parity typically makes sports more fun, but there is something to be said about the chase to the top and upsetting the Goliath, though I'm obviously biased as an SDSU fan. There is an argument to be made that their dominance has caused other programs to step their game up to compete, which can be seen in the rest of the conference's teams playoff success. I believe every MVFC team has made a playoff appearance in the past 10 years and all but 1 have won a game (Missouri st). I'd be interested in the perspective of other non xDSU fans in the MVFC.

[Reign of Terrier]

That is very interesting. I think it speaks to the similarities between the conferences. Both conferences have a power vacuum with they respective top teams leaving and no team has yet to jump up and take over in either conference.

In the socon context, it's more apt to say that we have had a rotating cast of champions and playoff participants since 2016. For a few years it was Chattanooga and the citadel, then it was those two + Samford+ Wofford. Then it was Wofford+ Furman. Then ETSU and COVID happened. And now it's likely Furman and Samford and whoever else can make noise.

The difference between the socon and the CAA, is that outside of our top team, there's one team that's predictably nipping on their heels, and 2 more looking to unseat that second team.

The CAA doesn't have that level or predictably, and I believe that's mostly due to the size of the conference, and the scheduling shuffle. The difference between the two conferences is that with the socon you can gauge your improvement year-to-year pretty well, but not so in the CAA.

For example, I looked at Richmond's schedule today and I wouldn't be surprised if the spiders 8-1 going into the final two weeks of the season. But that really won't tell us how good they are because two of their best opponents aren't coming up until the final 2 games of the year and their schedule is pretty weak up until then. What's weird an underappreciated just in that case is that Richmond only plays 3 teams that were in the old CAA of about 15 years ago (when they won their title)this year. They play 4 or so teams that are or used to be MEAC schools and a couple that were in the Big South (but didn't win it) until recently.

Again, that's not to say Richmond or the CAA will be bad or worse than the socon, but it's not a schedule that instills confidence about being challenged week to week. Playing New Hampshire, JMU, Delaware, and Villanova every year hardens you to something better. This schedule doesn't do that.

[KPSUL]

Really?

Sample size calculator



What margin of error can you accept?
20%
The margin of error is the amount of error that you can tolerate. (FUBeAR is an 80/20 Pareto Principle guy)


What confidence level do you need?
80%
The confidence level is the amount of uncertainty you can tolerate. (FUBeAR is an 80/20 Pareto Principle guy)


What is the population size?
If you don't know, use 20000
20,000
In this case - "population" is the number of games played - so X teams times 11 or 12 games times 8 years....something like that. Regardless - will just leave it at 20,000 because .... "The sample size doesn't change much for populations larger than 20,000."


Your recommended sample size is:

11

Welp - FUBeAR's sample size was n=15.



"...trying to use it for trend analysis for the out years is absurd." That's EXACTLY what trend analysis is used for - projecting future outcomes based upon the trend of the existing data over time.

Thanks for playing...also.

Oh, my FUBeAR friend, where to start?

You don't have a sample in your charted data, it is census (meaning all items) of all games played within a specified time period. Although that makes the rest of the post meaningless I'll make a couple of points about some terms you are using that might assist you in future analysis.

The results from sample of margin of error +or- 20 percentage points with an 80 percent confidence level is not nearly reliable enough to apply to the entire universe of items from which your sample was selected. That means your conclusion can only apply to the items that were in your sample. But please keep this in mind: your charted data is a census, not a sample.


Pareto is not used in the process of determining a sample size or selecting a sample. It is a concept developed based on the notion that 80 percent of your problems are causes by 20 percent of the people, functions, risk factors or some other criteria you are assessing using the nominal group technique. This is not a statistical process beyond the basic descriptive statistics of percentage and frequency.

[FUBeAR]

You don't have a sample in your charted data, it is census

The results from sample of margin of error +or- 20 percentage points with an 80 percent confidence level is not nearly reliable enough

Pareto is not used in the process of determining a sample size or selecting a sample. It is a concept developed based on the notion that 80 percent of your problems are causes by 20 percent of the people, functions, risk factors or some other criteria you are assessing using the nominal group technique.

Sample, Census ... PotAto, Potahto

FUBeAR ain't conductin' Pharma Clinical Trials here...Don't care what the CDC or the FDA thinks - we're thinkin' about Vegas as our overlords in this model. FUBeAR can tolerate 80% confidence and 20% error for these purposes.

And, you are way too narrowly defining the Pareto Principle. FUBeAR knew Vilfredo Pareto and you, Senator, are no Vilfredo Pareto.

You can take your QA / SPC mumbo-jumbo jargon back to the assembly line. We're talkin' Football here.

80% of the time FUBeAR's predictions are accurate and 20% of the time, the Ref's screw up his bets. That's how the Pareto Principle applies on AGS; not some namby-pamby GroupThink Snowflake Whiteboard Exercise which you are describing.


What FUBeAR do know is his time-series produces a trendline and that he's gonna take that trendline (which CLEARLY shows MATHEMATICALLY that the SoCon is NOW better than the CAA) to the BANK!

Forecast sez...

...SoCon bellhops are gonna whip the CAA dromedaries by 1.75 points...
...and SoCon yardbarkers will whip the CAA green & gold social division by 2.89...
...and just let FUBeAR see a SoCon vs CAA matchup in the Playoffs. He'll know that one's gonna be won by the good guys by 4.02 points.


Gotta go get some bets down...PEACE!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Betting_on_the_Favorite.jpg/640px-Betting_on_the_Favorite.jpg

[KPSUL]

Sample, Census ... PotAto, Potahto

FUBeAR ain't conductin' Pharma Clinical Trials here...Don't care what the CDC or the FDA thinks - we're thinkin' about Vegas as our overlords in this model. FUBeAR can tolerate 80% confidence and 20% error for these purposes.

And, you are way too narrowly defining the Pareto Principle. FUBeAR knew Vilfredo Pareto and you, Senator, are no Vilfredo Pareto.

You can take your QA / SPC mumbo-jumbo jargon back to the assembly line. We're talkin' Football here.

80% of the time FUBeAR's predictions are accurate and 20% of the time, the Ref's screw up his bets. That's how the Pareto Principle applies on AGS; not some namby-pamby GroupThink Snowflake Whiteboard Exercise which you are describing.


What FUBeAR do know is his time-series produces a trendline and that he's gonna take that trendline (which CLEARLY shows MATHEMATICALLY that the SoCon is NOW better than the CAA) to the BANK!

Forecast sez...

...SoCon bellhops are gonna whip the CAA dromedaries by 1.75 points...
...and SoCon yardbarkers will whip the CAA green & gold social division by 2.89...
...and just let FUBeAR see a SoCon vs CAA matchup in the Playoffs. He'll know that one's gonna be won by the good guys by 4.02 points.


Gotta go get some bets down...PEACE!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a2/Betting_on_the_Favorite.jpg/640px-Betting_on_the_Favorite.jpg

Well said! Let's get back to football talk.

I get the Dramaderies and the bellhops - I'll take the Dramaderies and give up 4 pts.

I assume the Yardbarkers are the Wofford Terriers , so I take Bill and Mary and give 9 points.

(Terriers is not a bad mascot, but a Boston Terrier logo? Those dogs can be real weenies. My granddaughter's cat chases the neighbor's Boston Terrier out of our yard. My Staffordshire Terrier sits there laughing while the kitty cat takes care of the light work)

[Reign of Terrier]

We're anklebiters or rat dogs, not yardbarkers, this is basic AGS smack lore

[FUBeAR]

We're anklebiters or rat dogs, not yardbarkers, this is basic AGS smack lore
You are who FUBeAR thinks you are!

Tell ‘em Coach Green…


https://youtu.be/jHiXADtvzQU

…that includes PorchYappers, Tearyers, LittleDogs, miniMethodists…or whatever else might spring from FUBeAR’s paw tips.

[Gil Dobie]

None can or will be able to compete against Furman.

[MR. CHICKEN]

In the socon context, it's more apt to say that we have had a rotating cast of champions and playoff participants since 2016. For a few years it was Chattanooga and the citadel, then it was those two + Samford+ Wofford. Then it was Wofford+ Furman. Then ETSU and COVID happened. And now it's likely Furman and Samford and whoever else can make noise.

The difference between the socon and the CAA, is that outside of our top team, there's one team that's predictably nipping on their heels, and 2 more looking to unseat that second team.

The CAA doesn't have that level or predictably, and I believe that's mostly due to the size of the conference, and the scheduling shuffle. The difference between the two conferences is that with the socon you can gauge your improvement year-to-year pretty well, but not so in the CAA.

For example, I looked at Richmond's schedule today and I wouldn't be surprised if the spiders 8-1 going into the final two weeks of the season. But that really won't tell us how good they are because two of their best opponents aren't coming up until the final 2 games of the year and their schedule is pretty weak up until then. What's weird an underappreciated just in that case is that Richmond only plays 3 teams that were in the old CAA of about 15 years ago (when they won their title)this year. They play 4 or so teams that are or used to be MEAC schools and a couple that were in the Big South (but didn't win it) until recently.

Again, that's not to say Richmond or the CAA will be bad or worse than the socon, but it's not a schedule that instills confidence about being challenged week to week. Playing New Hampshire, JMU, Delaware, and Villanova every year hardens you to something better. This schedule doesn't do that.

32948
....UMMMM..........#1WM. & MARY.......#2NEW HAMPSHIRE......NIPPERS-RICHMOND-DELAWARE-ELON-RHODE ISLAND-VILLANOVA......xsighx.......BRAWK!

....POPPYCOCK!..............TELL ME HOW WE CAN'T GUAGE.......HOW DOES CAA COACHES POLL NOT KNOW...THE ..TEAM TA BEAT ?......EVEN OURAH CAA BOARD BUDDIES.....ALWAYS HAVE AN IDEAR....WHOM IT IS!.........YER THROWIN' [email protected] FAN.......xsighx......BRAWK!

[FUBeAR]

Sagarin updated to Season Start data…He, obviously, continues to be a follower of FUBeAR’s work. No reason to change when you’re right.

RANK | FCS CONFERENCE | MEAN
1 | MISSOURI VALLEY | 53.57
2 | BIG SKY | 50.67
3 | SOUTHERN | 46.67
4 | COLONIAL | 44.15
5 | UNITED ATHLETIC | 43.95
6 | IVY LEAGUE | 43.78
7 | SOUTHLAND | 39.69
8 | BIG SOUTH/OVC | 36.98
9 | SWAC-EAST | 32.57
10 | SWAC-WEST | 31.51
11 | PATRIOT | 31.18
12 NORTHEAST | 29.16
13 MEAC | 28.92
14 PIONEER | 20.33

[crusader11]

Sagarin loves the ancient eight.

[KPSUL]

Sagarin loves the ancient eight.

Yes, and I've seen it even worse with previous Sagarin/Massey ratings. I really don't know why, but they rarely play FBS teams, just speculating, but that might be a factor.

[ElCid]

Sagarin loves the ancient eight.

There has always some sort of Ivy bias in his ratings. Hard to see how it is done, but I suspect that their insolated and limited schedule plays a big factor. The type of opponents are such that they have limited impact on moving them up or down. So the initial bias is somehow wrong.

[FUBeAR]

Dang - you Coastal Atheltic Association boyz gots to be mad at Mr. Sagarin. If you extrapolate his rankings to Playoffs, the CAA is a 1-Bid League....SoCon gets 3 in with Chatt not too far on the outside ... sounds about right to FUBeAR.



RANK / SEED
TEAM
RATING
Conference
Playoff Projection Status


1 Seed
South Dakota State
73.08
MVFC
AQ - Seed1


2 Seed
North Dakota State
68.59
MVFC
At-Large1 - Seed2


3 Seed
Montana State
68.04
Big Sky
AQ - Seed1


4 Seed
Northern Iowa
62.08
MVFC
At-Large2 - Seed3


5 Seed
Sacramento State
60.45
Big Sky
At-Large1 - Seed2


6 Seed
Southern Illinois
59.25
MVFC
At-Large3 - Seed4


7 Seed
North Dakota
57.90
MVFC
At-Large4 - Seed5


8 Seed
UC Davis
57.65
Big Sky
At-Large2 - Seed3


9
Idaho
57.61
Big Sky
At-Large3


10
Montana
57.34
Big Sky
At-Large4


11
Weber State
56.77
Big Sky
At-Large5


12
Furman
56.52
SoCon
AQ


13
Incarnate Word
55.33
Southland
AQ


14
Youngstown State
54.00
MVFC
At-Large5


15
Yale
53.88
Ivy
NONE


16
William & Mary
53.23
CAA
AQ


17
SE Louisiana
53.13
Southland
At-Large1


18
Mercer
52.60
SoCon
At-Large1


19
Samford
51.42
SoCon
At-Large2


20
Missouri State
51.34
MVFC
At-Large6


21
Central Arkansas
51.08
UAC
AQ


22
Princeton
50.77
Ivy
NONE


23
Illinois State
50.72
MVFC
1st Team Out


24
Richmond
50.40
CAA
2nd Team Out


25
Eastern Washington
49.85
Big Sky
3rd Team Out









26
SE Missouri State
49.82
Big South/OVC
AQ


27
Delaware
49.80
CAA
4th Team Out


31
Holy Cross
48.57
Patriot
AQ


55
Saint Francis-Pa.
41.61
NEC
AQ


102
Davidson
29.69
PFL
AQ

[caribbeanhen]

Sagarin loves the ancient eight.

Yale

[KPSUL]

Dang - you Coastal Atheltic Association boyz gots to be mad at Mr. Sagarin. If you extrapolate his rankings to Playoffs, the CAA is a 1-Bid League....SoCon gets 3 in with Chatt not too far on the outside ... sounds about right to FUBeAR.



RANK / SEED
TEAM
RATING
Conference
Playoff Projection Status


1 Seed
South Dakota State
73.08
MVFC
AQ - Seed1


2 Seed
North Dakota State
68.59
MVFC
At-Large1 - Seed2


3 Seed
Montana State
68.04
Big Sky
AQ - Seed1


4 Seed
Northern Iowa
62.08
MVFC
At-Large2 - Seed3


5 Seed
Sacramento State
60.45
Big Sky
At-Large1 - Seed2


6 Seed
Southern Illinois
59.25
MVFC
At-Large3 - Seed4


7 Seed
North Dakota
57.90
MVFC
At-Large4 - Seed5


8 Seed
UC Davis
57.65
Big Sky
At-Large2 - Seed3


9
Idaho
57.61
Big Sky
At-Large3


10
Montana
57.34
Big Sky
At-Large4


11
Weber State
56.77
Big Sky
At-Large5


12
Furman
56.52
SoCon
AQ


13
Incarnate Word
55.33
Southland
AQ


14
Youngstown State
54.00
MVFC
At-Large5


15
Yale
53.88
Ivy
NONE


16
William & Mary
53.23
CAA
AQ


17
SE Louisiana
53.13
Southland
At-Large1


18
Mercer
52.60
SoCon
At-Large1


19
Samford
51.42
SoCon
At-Large2


20
Missouri State
51.34
MVFC
At-Large6


21
Central Arkansas
51.08
UAC
AQ


22
Princeton
50.77
Ivy
NONE


23
Illinois State
50.72
MVFC
1st Team Out


24
Richmond
50.40
CAA
2nd Team Out


25
Eastern Washington
49.85
Big Sky
3rd Team Out









26
SE Missouri State
49.82
Big South/OVC
AQ


27
Delaware
49.80
CAA
4th Team Out


31
Holy Cross
48.57
Patriot
AQ


55
Saint Francis-Pa.
41.61
NEC
AQ


102
Davidson
29.69
PFL
AQ




You must be thrilled as well! Six Big Sky and 5 MVFC teams in front of the first SoCon.

I thought the AGS community had repeatedly reached consensus on the fact that Sagarin was only slightly useful in picking in-season winners but is totally useless for preseason projections? Also I thought you were moving away from statistics and we were gonna start talking football?

[FUBeAR]

I thought the AGS community had repeatedly reached consensus on the fact that Sagarin was only slightly useful in picking in-season winners but is totally useless for preseason projections? Also I thought you were moving away from statistics and we were gonna start talking football?

https://wp.usatodaysports.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/90/2015/01/182781iz759dyjpg.jpg

...hard to accept only being a 1-bid league of 15 Teams. FUBeAR understands your anger.

[uni88]

Dang - you Coastal Atheltic Association boyz gots to be mad at Mr. Sagarin. If you extrapolate his rankings to Playoffs, the CAA is a 1-Bid League....SoCon gets 3 in with Furman ranked the highest at #12 and Chatt not too far on the outside ... sounds about right to FUBeAR.



RANK / SEED
TEAM
RATING
Conference
Playoff Projection Status


1 Seed
South Dakota State
73.08
MVFC
AQ - Seed1


2 Seed
North Dakota State
68.59
MVFC
At-Large1 - Seed2


3 Seed
Montana State
68.04
Big Sky
AQ - Seed1


4 Seed
Northern Iowa
62.08
MVFC
At-Large2 - Seed3


5 Seed
Sacramento State
60.45
Big Sky
At-Large1 - Seed2


6 Seed
Southern Illinois
59.25
MVFC
At-Large3 - Seed4


7 Seed
North Dakota
57.90
MVFC
At-Large4 - Seed5


8 Seed
UC Davis
57.65
Big Sky
At-Large2 - Seed3


9
Idaho
57.61
Big Sky
At-Large3


10
Montana
57.34
Big Sky
At-Large4


11
Weber State
56.77
Big Sky
At-Large5


12
Furman
56.52
SoCon
AQ


13
Incarnate Word
55.33
Southland
AQ


14
Youngstown State
54.00
MVFC
At-Large5


15
Yale
53.88
Ivy
NONE


16
William & Mary
53.23
CAA
AQ


17
SE Louisiana
53.13
Southland
At-Large1


18
Mercer
52.60
SoCon
At-Large1


19
Samford
51.42
SoCon
At-Large2


20
Missouri State
51.34
MVFC
At-Large6


21
Central Arkansas
51.08
UAC
AQ


22
Princeton
50.77
Ivy
NONE


23
Illinois State
50.72
MVFC
1st Team Out


24
Richmond
50.40
CAA
2nd Team Out


25
Eastern Washington
49.85
Big Sky
3rd Team Out









26
SE Missouri State
49.82
Big South/OVC
AQ


27
Delaware
49.80
CAA
4th Team Out


31
Holy Cross
48.57
Patriot
AQ


55
Saint Francis-Pa.
41.61
NEC
AQ


102
Davidson
29.69
PFL
AQ




Your agreement with Sagarin is noted.

[Tribe4SF]

You must be thrilled as well! Six Big Sky and 5 MVFC teams in front of the first SoCon.

I thought the AGS community had repeatedly reached consensus on the fact that Sagarin was only slightly useful in picking in-season winners but is totally useless for preseason projections? Also I thought you were moving away from statistics and we were gonna start talking football?

Sagarin almost as bad as Massey at this point. Massey has Richmond 3 spots above W&M at #16 and UNH like 6th in the league. Sagarin with HC at #31?

[Reign of Terrier]

Folks, I think it's pretty obvious that computer rankings are pretty bad at this level, and basically reward teams for their proximity to other good teams. The only possibility for many teams to jump is for a conference opponent to make a good playoff run. For instance, I'm a Wofford homer as anyone is a homer for anything (and think we'll be "back" this year), but Massey has us 46th, and I don't think there's any statistical datapoint to say we are top 50 outside of the fact that we played Samford well last year and they made the quarterfinal, and played meh against Furman who looked well via transitive property. Kinda wild to put a Wofford team who has won 4 games in 2 years top 40. I'm not just roasting my team, I think there are lots of teams in Massey and otherwise that are similarly overrated.

Though I will say these are useful models for late playoffs and for maybe assessing how good the top 3-5 teams are in comparison to the FBS

[The Cats]

https://twitter.com/Catamounts/status/1700733871644364902

[Chalupa Batman]

https://twitter.com/Catamounts/status/1700733871644364902

Great win! Catamounts and Salukis are early season leaders to be a surprising seed this season.

[Chalupa Batman]

With just 5 days left until the selection show, I was curious to see who was mentioned before the season as teams that could go from unranked to seeded in the playoffs and compare to where we're at now.


I'll go with Central Arkansas too.

What are the chances of Villanova turning it around after a disappointing season?


UT-Martin: I thought they were a playoff team last year. Will once again challenge SEMO (who has equity) for the OVC auto-bid....
Fordham: Their schedule sets up that a 10-1 record, beat HC for the PL Title, could put them in the mix. They still have a lot of weapons...
Villanova: The Wildcats have definitely slipped since losing to SDSU in the 2021 playoffs. But, there is always talent on the Mainline and the CAA tends to be a bit unpredictable....

Wildcats are most likely a seed with a win over Delaware this week, but no shot if they lose.


Monmouth
Wofford
St Thomas
Albany
SF Austin

based on hopes and dreams

Same as above with Villanova, though the Great Danes are going to be heavy favorites against Monmouth so they are very likely to earn a seed.


Back to the original topic if anyone comes out of the UAC relatively unscathed they have a good shot.

This would be Austin Peay if they win this weekend though I still think they would need some help, like having at least 2 of NDSU, Idaho, & Albany losing.



One team that was never mentioned and is all but guaranteed to be a seed is South Dakota (they play winless Western Illinois this weekend). Congratulations to the Coyotes for earning their first seed in school history. Two of the most popular teams mentioned as possible unranked-to-seeded teams were Western Carolina & Southern Illinois, and while both seemed like good bets to earn a seed at one point in the year they each had a 2 game stumble that will see them playing Thanksgiving weekend (provided they win the games they are both heavily favored in this weekend).

[ElCid]

Nice review.

[TribeGuy]

Interesting List, Chalupa!

Good call (August) on a potential Austin Peay seed. Now before Week 12, it's also looking like South Dakota. Given the 2023 heavyweights of MVFC/Big Sky candidates, the CAA might only have 1 seed. Could it be non-Pre-Season Top 25 Villanova or even UAlbany?

That would make your list 3 teams for 2023. I love the FCS.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

UT-Martin: I thought they were a playoff team last year. Will once again challenge SEMO (who has equity) for the OVC auto-bid....
Fordham: Their schedule sets up that a 10-1 record, beat HC for the PL Title, could put them in the mix. They still have a lot of weapons...
Villanova: The Wildcats have definitely slipped since losing to SDSU in the 2021 playoffs. But, there is always talent on the Mainline and the CAA tends to be a bit unpredictable....

I wasn't too far off at this point. UT-Martin has a shot still imo to pull a bit of a surprise "steal" a seed while Villanova is likely a win over Delaware away from getting seeded.

[Chalupa Batman]

Interesting List, Chalupa!

Good call (August) on a potential Austin Peay seed. Now before Week 12, it's also looking like South Dakota. Given the 2023 heavyweights of MVFC/Big Sky candidates, the CAA might only have 1 seed. Could it be non-Pre-Season Top 25 Villanova or even UAlbany?

That would make your list 3 teams for 2023. I love the FCS.

I think the both the Delaware/Villanova winner and Albany (provided they win) get a seed. Which along with South Dakota would make 3 teams going from unranked in the AGS preseason to a top 8 seed in the tournament. Very outside shot at Austin Peay making it a 4th but unlikely.

I too love the FCS.