Keeper's FCS Returning Starters and Stats

[Keeper]

This link to the entire FCS page:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b67BjoOoWtMQntGFioAwlrnksZUwBiIbjw7X_v-A0rQ/edit#gid=658338248 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b67BjoOoWtMQntGFioAwlrnksZUwBiIbjw7X_v-A0rQ/edit#gid=658338248)

Sample conference below:





2022
2022
OFFENSIVE STATS RETURNING
Offense
2022 TOTAL TACKLES
DEFENSIVE STATS RETURNING
Defense

FBS





RUSH
PASS
Starters
RUSH
PASS
REC
O-LINE
Change
DL
LB
DB
Starters
TOT
DL
LB
DB
Change

rank


Cal Poly
BigSky

95
313
8.4
78
309
146
95%
+3.9
27%
33%
40%
8.3
75%
98%
84%
54%
+4.1

10


Montana St
BigSky

311
184
9.1
284
167
105
100%
+5.1
23%
32%
45%
6.7
65%
95%
65%
49%
+1.9

13


UC-Davis
BigSky

197
295
5.4
86
288
189
45%
+0.7
18%
32%
49%
7.1
68%
97%
58%
64%
+2.5

40


Portland St
BigSky

192
201
6.4
161
184
93
60%
+2.1
18%
31%
52%
4.4
55%
17%
81%
52%
-1.8

56


Idaho
BigSky

173
262
6.6
90
260
226
45%
+2.4
25%
29%
46%
5.0
50%
35%
14%
81%
-2.6

64


Montana
BigSky

180
225
7.9
114
27
137
100%
-0.2
19%
38%
43%
5.0
55%
62%
53%
54%
-0.9

73


Sacramento St
BigSky

245
257
7.0
64
2
172
82%
-3.3
27%
26%
47%
7.2
71%
54%
95%
67%
+2.0

76


Eastern Wash
BigSky

140
254
7.5
112
29
161
78%
-0.8
29%
26%
45%
6.0
55%
33%
90%
49%
-1.3

85


Northern Arizona
BigSky

108
266
6.1
70
5
239
36%
-2.7
24%
27%
49%
7.0
58%
49%
81%
50%
+0.3

86


Northern Colorado
BigSky

121
229
3.2
21
54
135
24%
-5.6
18%
43%
38%
7.0
70%
72%
63%
78%
+2.2

99


Idaho St
BigSky

130
198
4.1
103
114
76
20%
-2.3
28%
32%
40%
5.0
49%
55%
27%
62%
-2.3

103


Weber St
BigSky

208
207
5.2
82
12
77
57%
-4.8
22%
36%
42%
5.6
56%
44%
71%
50%
-0.8

111

[ElCid]

This link to the entire FCS page:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b67BjoOoWtMQntGFioAwlrnksZUwBiIbjw7X_v-A0rQ/edit#gid=658338248 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b67BjoOoWtMQntGFioAwlrnksZUwBiIbjw7X_v-A0rQ/edit#gid=658338248)

Sample conference below:





2022
2022
OFFENSIVE STATS RETURNING
Offense
2022 TOTAL TACKLES
DEFENSIVE STATS RETURNING
Defense

FBS





RUSH
PASS
Starters
RUSH
PASS
REC
O-LINE
Change
DL
LB
DB
Starters
TOT
DL
LB
DB
Change

rank


Cal Poly
BigSky

95
313
8.4
78
309
146
95%
+3.9
27%
33%
40%
8.3
75%
98%
84%
54%
+4.1

10


Montana St
BigSky

311
184
9.1
284
167
105
100%
+5.1
23%
32%
45%
6.7
65%
95%
65%
49%
+1.9

13


UC-Davis
BigSky

197
295
5.4
86
288
189
45%
+0.7
18%
32%
49%
7.1
68%
97%
58%
64%
+2.5

40


Portland St
BigSky

192
201
6.4
161
184
93
60%
+2.1
18%
31%
52%
4.4
55%
17%
81%
52%
-1.8

56


Idaho
BigSky

173
262
6.6
90
260
226
45%
+2.4
25%
29%
46%
5.0
50%
35%
14%
81%
-2.6

64


Montana
BigSky

180
225
7.9
114
27
137
100%
-0.2
19%
38%
43%
5.0
55%
62%
53%
54%
-0.9

73


Sacramento St
BigSky

245
257
7.0
64
2
172
82%
-3.3
27%
26%
47%
7.2
71%
54%
95%
67%
+2.0

76


Eastern Wash
BigSky

140
254
7.5
112
29
161
78%
-0.8
29%
26%
45%
6.0
55%
33%
90%
49%
-1.3

85


Northern Arizona
BigSky

108
266
6.1
70
5
239
36%
-2.7
24%
27%
49%
7.0
58%
49%
81%
50%
+0.3

86


Northern Colorado
BigSky

121
229
3.2
21
54
135
24%
-5.6
18%
43%
38%
7.0
70%
72%
63%
78%
+2.2

99


Idaho St
BigSky

130
198
4.1
103
114
76
20%
-2.3
28%
32%
40%
5.0
49%
55%
27%
62%
-2.3

103


Weber St
BigSky

208
207
5.2
82
12
77
57%
-4.8
22%
36%
42%
5.6
56%
44%
71%
50%
-0.8

111



Nice. Thanks for being a geek! Appreciate this data. We will see how it translates to on-field performance.

[FUBeAR]

This link to the entire FCS page:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b67BjoOoWtMQntGFioAwlrnksZUwBiIbjw7X_v-A0rQ/edit#gid=658338248 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b67BjoOoWtMQntGFioAwlrnksZUwBiIbjw7X_v-A0rQ/edit#gid=658338248)

Sample conference below:





2022
2022
OFFENSIVE STATS RETURNING
Offense
2022 TOTAL TACKLES
DEFENSIVE STATS RETURNING
Defense

FBS





RUSH
PASS
Starters
RUSH
PASS
REC
O-LINE
Change
DL
LB
DB
Starters
TOT
DL
LB
DB
Change

rank


Cal Poly
BigSky

95
313
8.4
78
309
146
95%
+3.9
27%
33%
40%
8.3
75%
98%
84%
54%
+4.1

10


Montana St
BigSky

311
184
9.1
284
167
105
100%
+5.1
23%
32%
45%
6.7
65%
95%
65%
49%
+1.9

13


UC-Davis
BigSky

197
295
5.4
86
288
189
45%
+0.7
18%
32%
49%
7.1
68%
97%
58%
64%
+2.5

40


Portland St
BigSky

192
201
6.4
161
184
93
60%
+2.1
18%
31%
52%
4.4
55%
17%
81%
52%
-1.8

56


Idaho
BigSky

173
262
6.6
90
260
226
45%
+2.4
25%
29%
46%
5.0
50%
35%
14%
81%
-2.6

64


Montana
BigSky

180
225
7.9
114
27
137
100%
-0.2
19%
38%
43%
5.0
55%
62%
53%
54%
-0.9

73


Sacramento St
BigSky

245
257
7.0
64
2
172
82%
-3.3
27%
26%
47%
7.2
71%
54%
95%
67%
+2.0

76


Eastern Wash
BigSky

140
254
7.5
112
29
161
78%
-0.8
29%
26%
45%
6.0
55%
33%
90%
49%
-1.3

85


Northern Arizona
BigSky

108
266
6.1
70
5
239
36%
-2.7
24%
27%
49%
7.0
58%
49%
81%
50%
+0.3

86


Northern Colorado
BigSky

121
229
3.2
21
54
135
24%
-5.6
18%
43%
38%
7.0
70%
72%
63%
78%
+2.2

99


Idaho St
BigSky

130
198
4.1
103
114
76
20%
-2.3
28%
32%
40%
5.0
49%
55%
27%
62%
-2.3

103


Weber St
BigSky

208
207
5.2
82
12
77
57%
-4.8
22%
36%
42%
5.6
56%
44%
71%
50%
-0.8

111



Love it!

Can you elaborate more on this…

”FCS Overall Rank combines calculated Offense & Defense power ratings points change.”

That and the metric you have for Offensive and Defensive Change - curious how those are derived.

[Redbird 4th & short]

It is you ... great work Keeper !! Was wondering where you been.

[Keeper]

Hi, FUBeAR !

I have a power rating formula, based on many years of returning production trends.
Offensive change measures each column's traditional returning/loss impacts. These are compared with entire FCS current averages.
The results are then reweighed according to run vs pass ratio. Final result is total offensive power change up or down.
Same with defensive units ratios, whichever squad tackles the most and has more starters. Overall team tackles and total returning starters have more weight.

Offense and Defense rating changes combined give overall FCS rank of returning stats.
The changes go into last season's ending power rating to become the new season beginning ratings (coming soon).
(BTW, next edition will include TIP, transfer impact points for incoming transfer stats.)

and FUBeAR rocks xthumbsupx

[Redbird 4th & short]

Hi, FUBeAR !

I have a power rating formula, based on many years of returning production trends.
Offensive change measures each column's traditional returning/loss impacts. These are compared with entire FCS current averages.
The results are then reweighed according to run vs pass ratio. Final result is total offensive power change up or down.
Same with defensive units ratios, whichever squad tackles the most and has more starters. Overall team tackles and total returning starters have more weight.

Offense and Defense rating changes combined give overall FCS rank of returning stats.
The changes go into last season's ending power rating to become the new season beginning ratings (coming soon).
(BTW, next edition will include TIP, transfer impact points for incoming transfer stats.)

and FUBeAR rocks xthumbsupx

Alright .. a little healthy competition. Transfer Impact will be big enhancement given today's game.

[FUBeAR]

Hi, FUBeAR !

I have a power rating formula, based on many years of returning production trends.
Offensive change measures each column's traditional returning/loss impacts. These are compared with entire FCS current averages.
The results are then reweighed according to run vs pass ratio. Final result is total offensive power change up or down.
Same with defensive units ratios, whichever squad tackles the most and has more starters. Overall team tackles and total returning starters have more weight.

Offense and Defense rating changes combined give overall FCS rank of returning stats.
The changes go into last season's ending power rating to become the new season beginning ratings (coming soon).
(BTW, next edition will include TIP, transfer impact points for incoming transfer stats.)

and FUBeAR rocks xthumbsupx
Thanks - not sure FUBeAR grasps the mechanics of the calculation, but he does, now, ‘get it,’ conceptually.

If so…seems…New Hampshire, Furman, and SDakSt, of the (typical) Playoff Teams, are bringing back the most.

Knew that about SDSU and FU, but hadn’t processed it as such for UNH.

The Tribe and the Wildcats ducked each other last year and are repeating their avoidance strategy again this year. Both won Playoff games last year, and one could say that UNH’s Playoff Win and Playoff Loss were both ’better’ than W&M’s Playoff W&L. Surprising that New Hampshire isn’t getting more ‘love’ this pre-season. FUBeAR suspects that BAD loss to NCCU last year is still anchoring UNH down in rankings. In retrospect, perhaps W&M’s loss to Elon was worse than the UNH loss to NCCU. Anyway, as a result of reviewing your work, FUBeAR is going to move UNH ahead of W&M as his favorite to win the CAA.

Still gonna leave SDSU and Furman in the Top 4.

Did note your Rank of other Top 2 in FUBeAR’s Ranking. Montana State @ total of 7.0 (if that’s correct, mechanically) and Ranked #13 (behind UNH @ #1/11.6 and FU @ #6/9.3) looks solid. OTOH, NDSU’s -1.2 and #75 Ranking is concerning.

Thus, FUBeAR is going to move Furman to #3 and reevaluate what is now his #4 selection.

LOVE THE DATA!! Thanks!!!

[SU DOG]

Wait! You're going to consider moving your #4 up a couple of slots?

[FUBeAR]

Wait! You're going to consider moving your #4 up a couple of slots?Up 1. From #4 to #3.

Did not realize the Team that, IFBO, would have lost in the Quarterfinals @ home if their opponent’s 1st Team All-American QB had been healthy enough to play anywhere close to his usual game (broken wrist on throwing arm is just too much to overcome), should have lost in the Semis @ home, and got waxed in the Championship game, had lost so much of their 2022 ‘production.’. Also, recently learned they now have a Petrino as a Coordinator on their Coaching Staff. That is a big negative for FUBeAR. Falcons Fans must shun all Petrino blood for eternity.

Even with all that, pretty sure we’ll keep ‘em in the Top 8 though.

why you ask?

[POD Knows]

Up 1. From #4 to #3.

Did not realize the Team that, IFBO, would have lost in the Quarterfinals @ home if their opponent’s 1st Team All-American QB had been able to play anywhere close to his usual game, should have lost in the Semis @ home, and got waxed in the Championship game, had lost so much of their 2022 ‘production.’. Also, recently learned they now have a Petrino as a Coordinator on their Coaching Staff. That is a big negative for FUBeAR. Falcons Fans must shun all Petrino blood for eternity.

why you ask?
LMAO. Delusions of Grandeur. 🤣

[caribbeanhen]

Thanks - not sure FUBeAR grasps the mechanics of the calculation, but he does, now, ‘get it,’ conceptually.

If so…seems…New Hampshire, Furman, and SDakSt, of the (typical) Playoff Teams, are bringing back the most.

Knew that about SDSU and FU, but hadn’t processed it as such for UNH.

The Tribe and the Wildcats ducked each other last year and are repeating their avoidance strategy again this year. Both won Playoff games last year, and one could say that UNH’s Playoff Win and Playoff Loss were both ’better’ than W&M’s Playoff W&L. Surprising that New Hampshire isn’t getting more ‘love’ this pre-season. FUBeAR suspects that BAD loss to NCCU last year is still anchoring UNH down in rankings. In retrospect, perhaps W&M’s loss to Elon was worse than the UNH loss to NCCU. Anyway, as a result of reviewing your work, FUBeAR is going to move UNH ahead of W&M as his favorite to win the CAA.

Still gonna leave SDSU and Furman in the Top 4.

Did note your Rank of other Top 2 in FUBeAR’s Ranking. Montana State @ total of 7.0 (if that’s correct, mechanically) and Ranked #13 (behind UNH @ #1/11.6 and FU @ #6/9.3) looks solid. OTOH, NDSU’s -1.2 and #75 Ranking is concerning.

Thus, FUBeAR is going to move Furman to #3 and reevaluate what is now his #4 selection.

LOVE THE DATA!! Thanks!!!

You don’t have Flo sports do ya

William & Mary > New Hampshire last year. I actually think CAA fans would agree

no stats, eye test only

The game between these schools needs to be played and as the season rolls along fans will complain louder and louder abut the new CAA schedules because they are horrible

At least Delaware plays UNH…. UNH will be favored

[Keeper]

Mostly for FUBeAR and anyone else interested: Keeper's pre-season power ratings Top 25:



1
South Dakota St


2
Furman


3
UC-Davis


4
Mercer


5
Montana St


6
William & Mary


7
Sacramento St


8
SE Missouri St


9
New Hampshire


10
Northern Iowa


11
Central Arkansas


12
Yale


13
Idaho


14
Samford


15
Richmond


16
North Dakota


17
Holy Cross


18
Chattanooga


19
NC Central


20
Southern Illinois


21
Montana


22
North Dakota St


23
Gardner-Webb


24
Youngstown St


25
Austin Peay

[FUBeAR]

Mostly for FUBeAR and anyone else interested: Keeper's pre-season power ratings Top 25:



1
South Dakota St


2
Furman


3
UC-Davis


4
Mercer


5
Montana St


6
William & Mary


7
Sacramento St


8
SE Missouri St


9
New Hampshire


10
Northern Iowa


11
Central Arkansas


12
Yale


13
Idaho


14
Samford


15
Richmond


16
North Dakota


17
Holy Cross


18
Chattanooga


19
NC Central


20
Southern Illinois


21
Montana


22
North Dakota St


23
Gardner-Webb


24
Youngstown St


25
Austin Peay




Looks very reasonable to FUBeAR. FUBeAR ’walked’ this list thru his Iterative Current Head-to-Head Neutral Field Rankings Methodology (ICH2HNFRM) and really struggled to disagree with the placement of almost all of these Teams. There were some which seemed a bit of a stretch, but not many. That’s how FUBeAR recognizes a good ballot.

So…just as we did for the AGS Week 0 Poll, let’s look at what Keeper’s Top 25 Power Ranking projects for the FCS Playoffs

1 - SDSU - Seed #1 - MVFC (1) AQ1
2 - Furman - Seed #2 - SoCon (1) AQ2
3 - UC Davis - Seed #3 - Big Sky (1) AQ3
4 - Mercer - Seed #4 - SoCon (2) At-Large1
5 - Montana State - Seed #5 - Big Sky (2) At-Large2
6 - William & Mary - Seed #6 - CAA (1) AQ4
7 - Sacramento State - Seed #7 - Big Sky (3) At-Large3
8 - SEMO - Seed #8 - Big South/OVC (1) AQ5

9 - New Hampshire - CAA (2) At-Large4
10 - Northern Iowa - MVFC (2) At-Large5
11 - Central Arkansas - UAC (1) AQ6
12 - Idaho - Big Sky (4) At-Large6
13 - Samford - SoCon (3) At-Large7
14 - Richmond - CAA (3) At-Large8
15 - North Dakota - MVFC (3) At-Large9
16 - Holy Cross - Patriot League (1) AQ7
17 - Chattanooga - SoCon (4) At-Large10
18 - Southern Illinois - MVFC (4) At-Large11
19 - Montana - Big Sky (5) At-Large12
20 - NDSU - MVFC (5) At-Large13
21 - Gardner-Webb - Big South/OVC (2) At-Large14
22 - Champion of Southland (1) - AQ8
23 - Champion of NEC (1) - AQ9
24 - Champion of PFL (1) - AQ10

Last 2 In - NDSU & Gardner-Webb
First 2 Out - Youngstown State & Austin Peay

Looks good to FUBeAR.

[caribbeanhen]

Mostly for FUBeAR and anyone else interested: Keeper's pre-season power ratings Top 25:



1
South Dakota St


2
Furman


3
UC-Davis


4
Mercer


5
Montana St


6
William & Mary


7
Sacramento St


8
SE Missouri St


9
New Hampshire


10
Northern Iowa


11
Central Arkansas


12
Yale


13
Idaho


14
Samford


15
Richmond


16
North Dakota


17
Holy Cross


18
Chattanooga


19
NC Central


20
Southern Illinois


21
Montana


22
North Dakota St


23
Gardner-Webb


24
Youngstown St


25
Austin Peay




Is the Keeper the kid that FuBeaR kept? Ha just kidding, I congratulate you on being interested in FCS football and having the Brains to calculate something like this .. Great work!

Your math, despite a few mulligans, supports years of eye test work. I’m talking about the Ivy team in at # 12

I can see Furman at #2 but they have to show me

UC Davis at #3 ? Oh Lordy no

Swap Mercer with Samford

good call on William & Mary > New Hampshire

Northern Iowa is in…. Hero sports yawns on em again

I like Holy Cross as a top 10, but computer might be on to something…. Sluka factor is something the math can’t comprehend though

North Dakota State at 22 is definitely against the grain and the amber waves as well

[FUBeAR]

Keeper - Furman Fans are asking FUBeAR if there is any Special Teams data anywhere built into any of your cipherin’

Thinking the question is coming because Furman returns all Special Teams Starters and the ST Coordinator is an extremely well-respected former FBS HC & FBS DC. Guessing these Furman Fans are thinking no ST data is included, but if it were, it just might push FU over SDSU in your ranking given everyone returning. FUBeAR has no idea or thoughts on the matter…asking for an FU Friend or 3.

[Keeper]

Keeper - Furman Fans are asking FUBeAR if there is any Special Teams data anywhere built into any of your cipherin’

Thinking the question is coming because Furman returns all Special Teams Starters and the ST Coordinator is an extremely well-respected former FBS HC & FBS DC. Guessing these Furman Fans are thinking no ST data is included, but if it were, it just might push FU over SDSU in your ranking given everyone returning. FUBeAR has no idea or thoughts on the matter…asking for an FU Friend or 3.

NO special teams, NO past years data, NO opinion or bias whatsoever.
just barebones data from last season, Keeper still has a day job to contend with.
Actually, SD State is 5 power points ahead at Number One. So far ahead that Furman could return 100% 2 yrs running and not catch up. xpeacex

[FUBeAR]

NO special teams, NO past years data, NO opinion or bias whatsoever.
just barebones data from last season, Keeper still has a day job to contend with.
Actually, SD State is 5 power points ahead at Number One. So far ahead that Furman could return 100% 2 yrs running and not catch up. xpeacex
https://media.tenor.com/3dnzk_8PqwoAAAAM/dumb-and-dumber-jim-carrey.gif