STATS Perform FCS 2023 Preseason Top 25 Poll

[FUBeAR]

Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll

1. South Dakota State (14–1, 8–0 Missouri Valley), 1,400 points (56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (12–3, 7–1 Missouri Valley), 1,329
3. Montana State (12–2, 8–0 Big Sky), 1,294
4. William & Mary (11–2, 7–1 CAA), 1,172
5. Holy Cross (12–1, 6–0 Patriot), 1,113
6. Furman (10-3, 7-1 Southern) 1,035
7. UIW (12–2, 5–1 Southland), 935
8. Idaho (7–5, 6–2 Big Sky), 932
9. Samford (11-2), 8-0 Southern), 885
10. Sacramento State (12–1, 8–0 Big Sky), 881
11. New Hampshire (9–4, 7–1 CAA), 798
12. Southeast Missouri (9-3, 5–0 Ohio Valley), 768
13. Weber State (10–3, 6–2 Big Sky), 744
14. Montana (8–5, 4–4 Big Sky), 711
15. Southeastern Louisiana (9–4, 5–1 Southland), 710
16. UC Davis (6–5, 5–3 Big Sky), 513
17. North Dakota (7–5, 5–3 Missouri Valley), 479
18. Richmond (9–4, 6–2 CAA), 387
19. North Carolina Central (10–2, 4–1 MEAC), 330
20. Mercer (7-4, 5-3 Southern), 293
21. Rhode Island (7–4, 5–3 CAA), 169
22. Delaware (8-5, 4-4 CAA), 166
23. Northern Iowa (6-5, 5-3 Missouri Valley), 155
24. Eastern Kentucky (7-5, 3-2 ASUN), 137
25. Gardner-Webb (7-6, 5-0 Big South), 12

26. Central Arkansas (5–6, 3–2 ASUN) 110
27. Chattanooga (7-4, 5-3 Southern) 84
28. Jackson State (12-1, 8-0 SWAC) 71
29T. Southern Illinois (5–6, 4–4 Missouri Valley) 66
29T. Youngstown State (7-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley) 66
31T. Florida A&M (9-2, 7-1 SWAC) 65
31T. UT Martin (7–4, 5–0 Ohio Valley) 65
33. Elon (8-4, 6-2 CAA) 61
34. Austin Peay (7-4, 3-2 ASUN) 40
35. Fordham (9-3, 5-1 Patriot) 28
36. Yale (8-2, 6-1 Ivy) 18
37. Villanova (6-5, 4-4 CAA) 8
38. McNeese (4-7, 2-4 Southland) 7
39T. Abilene Christian (7-4, 3-1 WAC) 6
39T. St. Thomas (10-1, 8-0 Pioneer) 6
41. Saint Francis (9-3, 7-0 NEC) 5

William & Mary ahead of Furman makes no sense.
6 Big Sky Teams in Top 16 makes no sense.
7 CAA Teams in Top 37 makes no sense.
WCU? The Catamounts were certainly better than #33 Elon in 2022 and they defeated #27 Chattanooga to close out 2022. WCU not on this list makes no sense.

[Professor Chaos]

It's a preseason poll - you can make anything make sense if you want to spin it enough.

[wapiti]

Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll

1. South Dakota State (14–1, 8–0 Missouri Valley), 1,400 points (56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (12–3, 7–1 Missouri Valley), 1,329
3. Montana State (12–2, 8–0 Big Sky), 1,294
4. William & Mary (11–2, 7–1 CAA), 1,172
5. Holy Cross (12–1, 6–0 Patriot), 1,113
6. Furman (10-3, 7-1 Southern) 1,035
7. UIW (12–2, 5–1 Southland), 935
8. Idaho (7–5, 6–2 Big Sky), 932
9. Samford (11-2), 8-0 Southern), 885
10. Sacramento State (12–1, 8–0 Big Sky), 881
11. New Hampshire (9–4, 7–1 CAA), 798
12. Southeast Missouri (9-3, 5–0 Ohio Valley), 768
13. Weber State (10–3, 6–2 Big Sky), 744
14. Montana (8–5, 4–4 Big Sky), 711
15. Southeastern Louisiana (9–4, 5–1 Southland), 710
16. UC Davis (6–5, 5–3 Big Sky), 513
17. North Dakota (7–5, 5–3 Missouri Valley), 479
18. Richmond (9–4, 6–2 CAA), 387
19. North Carolina Central (10–2, 4–1 MEAC), 330
20. Mercer (7-4, 5-3 Southern), 293
21. Rhode Island (7–4, 5–3 CAA), 169
22. Delaware (8-5, 4-4 CAA), 166
23. Northern Iowa (6-5, 5-3 Missouri Valley), 155
24. Eastern Kentucky (7-5, 3-2 ASUN), 137
25. Gardner-Webb (7-6, 5-0 Big South), 12

26. Central Arkansas (5–6, 3–2 ASUN) 110
27. Chattanooga (7-4, 5-3 Southern) 84
28. Jackson State (12-1, 8-0 SWAC) 71
29T. Southern Illinois (5–6, 4–4 Missouri Valley) 66
29T. Youngstown State (7-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley) 66
31T. Florida A&M (9-2, 7-1 SWAC) 65
31T. UT Martin (7–4, 5–0 Ohio Valley) 65
33. Elon (8-4, 6-2 CAA) 61
34. Austin Peay (7-4, 3-2 ASUN) 40
35. Fordham (9-3, 5-1 Patriot) 28
36. Yale (8-2, 6-1 Ivy) 18
37. Villanova (6-5, 4-4 CAA) 8
38. McNeese (4-7, 2-4 Southland) 7
39T. Abilene Christian (7-4, 3-1 WAC) 6
39T. St. Thomas (10-1, 8-0 Pioneer) 6
41. Saint Francis (9-3, 7-0 NEC) 5

William & Mary ahead of Furman makes no sense.
6 Big Sky Teams in Top 16 makes no sense.
7 CAA Teams in Top 37 makes no sense.
WCU? The Catamounts were certainly better than #33 Elon in 2022 and they defeated #27 Chattanooga to close out 2022. WCU not on this list makes no sense.


I agree. It should have been at least 7.

[Tribe4SF]

Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll

1. South Dakota State (14–1, 8–0 Missouri Valley), 1,400 points (56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (12–3, 7–1 Missouri Valley), 1,329
3. Montana State (12–2, 8–0 Big Sky), 1,294
4. William & Mary (11–2, 7–1 CAA), 1,172
5. Holy Cross (12–1, 6–0 Patriot), 1,113
6. Furman (10-3, 7-1 Southern) 1,035
7. UIW (12–2, 5–1 Southland), 935
8. Idaho (7–5, 6–2 Big Sky), 932
9. Samford (11-2), 8-0 Southern), 885
10. Sacramento State (12–1, 8–0 Big Sky), 881
11. New Hampshire (9–4, 7–1 CAA), 798
12. Southeast Missouri (9-3, 5–0 Ohio Valley), 768
13. Weber State (10–3, 6–2 Big Sky), 744
14. Montana (8–5, 4–4 Big Sky), 711
15. Southeastern Louisiana (9–4, 5–1 Southland), 710
16. UC Davis (6–5, 5–3 Big Sky), 513
17. North Dakota (7–5, 5–3 Missouri Valley), 479
18. Richmond (9–4, 6–2 CAA), 387
19. North Carolina Central (10–2, 4–1 MEAC), 330
20. Mercer (7-4, 5-3 Southern), 293
21. Rhode Island (7–4, 5–3 CAA), 169
22. Delaware (8-5, 4-4 CAA), 166
23. Northern Iowa (6-5, 5-3 Missouri Valley), 155
24. Eastern Kentucky (7-5, 3-2 ASUN), 137
25. Gardner-Webb (7-6, 5-0 Big South), 12

26. Central Arkansas (5–6, 3–2 ASUN) 110
27. Chattanooga (7-4, 5-3 Southern) 84
28. Jackson State (12-1, 8-0 SWAC) 71
29T. Southern Illinois (5–6, 4–4 Missouri Valley) 66
29T. Youngstown State (7-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley) 66
31T. Florida A&M (9-2, 7-1 SWAC) 65
31T. UT Martin (7–4, 5–0 Ohio Valley) 65
33. Elon (8-4, 6-2 CAA) 61
34. Austin Peay (7-4, 3-2 ASUN) 40
35. Fordham (9-3, 5-1 Patriot) 28
36. Yale (8-2, 6-1 Ivy) 18
37. Villanova (6-5, 4-4 CAA) 8
38. McNeese (4-7, 2-4 Southland) 7
39T. Abilene Christian (7-4, 3-1 WAC) 6
39T. St. Thomas (10-1, 8-0 Pioneer) 6
41. Saint Francis (9-3, 7-0 NEC) 5

William & Mary ahead of Furman makes no sense.
6 Big Sky Teams in Top 16 makes no sense.
7 CAA Teams in Top 37 makes no sense.
WCU? The Catamounts were certainly better than #33 Elon in 2022 and they defeated #27 Chattanooga to close out 2022. WCU not on this list makes no sense.


xnodx Saw this earlier and immediately thought of FUBeAR, his hackles up and growling!

[clenz]

UNI too high. Looking at the 16 teams listed behind them I see at least 14 of them that would beat them by at least 10

Stop ranking UNI.

[caribbeanhen]

Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll

1. South Dakota State (14–1, 8–0 Missouri Valley), 1,400 points (56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (12–3, 7–1 Missouri Valley), 1,329
3. Montana State (12–2, 8–0 Big Sky), 1,294
4. William & Mary (11–2, 7–1 CAA), 1,172
5. Holy Cross (12–1, 6–0 Patriot), 1,113
6. Furman (10-3, 7-1 Southern) 1,035
7. UIW (12–2, 5–1 Southland), 935
8. Idaho (7–5, 6–2 Big Sky), 932
9. Samford (11-2), 8-0 Southern), 885
10. Sacramento State (12–1, 8–0 Big Sky), 881
11. New Hampshire (9–4, 7–1 CAA), 798
12. Southeast Missouri (9-3, 5–0 Ohio Valley), 768
13. Weber State (10–3, 6–2 Big Sky), 744
14. Montana (8–5, 4–4 Big Sky), 711
15. Southeastern Louisiana (9–4, 5–1 Southland), 710
16. UC Davis (6–5, 5–3 Big Sky), 513
17. North Dakota (7–5, 5–3 Missouri Valley), 479
18. Richmond (9–4, 6–2 CAA), 387
19. North Carolina Central (10–2, 4–1 MEAC), 330
20. Mercer (7-4, 5-3 Southern), 293
21. Rhode Island (7–4, 5–3 CAA), 169
22. Delaware (8-5, 4-4 CAA), 166
23. Northern Iowa (6-5, 5-3 Missouri Valley), 155
24. Eastern Kentucky (7-5, 3-2 ASUN), 137
25. Gardner-Webb (7-6, 5-0 Big South), 12

26. Central Arkansas (5–6, 3–2 ASUN) 110
27. Chattanooga (7-4, 5-3 Southern) 84
28. Jackson State (12-1, 8-0 SWAC) 71
29T. Southern Illinois (5–6, 4–4 Missouri Valley) 66
29T. Youngstown State (7-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley) 66
31T. Florida A&M (9-2, 7-1 SWAC) 65
31T. UT Martin (7–4, 5–0 Ohio Valley) 65
33. Elon (8-4, 6-2 CAA) 61
34. Austin Peay (7-4, 3-2 ASUN) 40
35. Fordham (9-3, 5-1 Patriot) 28
36. Yale (8-2, 6-1 Ivy) 18
37. Villanova (6-5, 4-4 CAA) 8
38. McNeese (4-7, 2-4 Southland) 7
39T. Abilene Christian (7-4, 3-1 WAC) 6
39T. St. Thomas (10-1, 8-0 Pioneer) 6
41. Saint Francis (9-3, 7-0 NEC) 5

William & Mary ahead of Furman makes no sense.
6 Big Sky Teams in Top 16 makes no sense.
7 CAA Teams in Top 37 makes no sense.
WCU? The Catamounts were certainly better than #33 Elon in 2022 and they defeated #27 Chattanooga to close out 2022. WCU not on this list makes no sense.


#39 St Thomas at unranked Harvard

9/16

this ought to be good

[KPSUL]

Incarnate Word: No doubt their performance last season warrants consideration for a top 8 preseason ranking. But I'm not sure it considers the fact that they lost a lot of offensive power to graduation and the portal. And UIW was a run and gun all out offensive bombshell. That sort of playing can work exceedingly well when you have all the weapons in place and the they are experienced - like UIW last season. Gone is their outstanding quarterback (Lindsey Scott), leading rusher (Marcus Cooper 1400 yards - QB Scott was 2nd) and their top 2 2022 receivers (Chafin and Grimes, combines 2470 yard). The head coach also left for Texas State.

On the plus side, they work the portal for the best available talent as well as anyone. The signed a QB (Calzada) who started 10 games for Texas A&M in 2021, transferred to Auburn for 2022, but didn't play a game before injuring a shoulder that required surgery. Obviously there are medical question marks for him, but there is no doubting the pedigree. They also picked-up a RB from SMU with about 2000 career rushing yards at SMU and Northern Texas. How he is still eligible is a bit of a mystery -looks like he had a redshirt year 2017 (UNT), two years of significant playing time 2018-19. The pandemic gimee everyone got (2020) and then two year at SMU (2021-22). He's only listed as playing 4 game last season, so he must have missed the rest due to injury or illness if he is still eligible.

[SDFS]

UNI too high. Looking at the 16 teams listed behind them I see at least 14 of them that would beat them by at least 10

Stop ranking UNI.

Stop sandbagging. On a local podcast that is hosted by Kyle Schweigert, Bubba's brother, they noted that the best overall offense line that UND saw last year was UNI. This included Nebraska, SDSU and NDSU. I find it absolutely amazing that Holy Cross is ranked in the Top 5 because they played SDSU close for 3 quarters. But, other MVFC teams are considered marginal with similar or better performances against SDSU. In reference to SDSU/Holy Cross game - SDSU had numerous defensive players out and/or playing out of position in particular the LB position, which HC exploited. The week after HC game they had multiple defensive players return for the Semi and Championship games.

IMO - Holy Cross is over ranked and UNI is absolutely under ranked right now. UNI should be considered a Top 10 team.

[clenz]

Stop sandbagging. On a local podcast that is hosted by Kyle Schweigert, Bubba's brother, they noted that the best overall offense line that UND saw last year was UNI. This included Nebraska, SDSU and NDSU. I find it absolutely amazing that Holy Cross is ranked in the Top 5 because they played SDSU close for 3 quarters. But, other MVFC teams are considered marginal with similar or better performances against SDSU. In reference to SDSU/Holy Cross game - SDSU had numerous defensive players out and/or playing out of position in particular the LB position, which HC exploited. The week after HC game they had multiple defensive players return for the Semi and Championship games.

IMO - Holy Cross is over ranked and UNI is absolutely under ranked right now. UNI should be considered a Top 10 team.Oh I can easily make a case that UNI should be between 8-13 right now. 10000%. Wouldn't be hard to do

BUT

This is AGS.

This is the home of "UNI is the most overrated team of all time". An actual title that has been bestowed upon UNI based on poll data where UNI had the greatest different between average preseason rank and final rank when the honor was bestowed. The average starting rank was something like 5 and the average final rank as something like 13. Having that 8 spot swing became proof UNI was always overrated. Then it became "UNI is only ranked high because of the name", which was weird to me because UNI was known as the most overrated team, yet somehow was only ranked because of name. Then it became "only ranked because they play in the Valley". and "UNI always loses first round of the playoffs" - something that's happened only twice in 22 playoff trips

So the reality is UNI, even at 23, is overrated.

They went 6-5 last year. No reason to rank them.

However, it's intersting that UC Davis also went 6-5 last year 1000% belongs in the top 13 in basically every poll. I mean, sure it was only 6 wins but look at the amazing teams they beat. Teams UNI could only dream of having a chance to beat

A PFL team
NAU 3-8
UNC 3-8
Poly 2-9
Idaho State 1-10
Idaho 7-5


Oh - and speaking of Idaho. They MUST be a preseason top 5-7 no questions asked. Why? They won 7 whole games last year. And they definitely didn't just beat up on the bottom of the Big Sky. They also made the playoffs and they certainly didn't lose in the first round. Teams that have 6 or 7 wins but don't win at least 3 playoff games have to be considered overrrated and fall start low in the next poll....right? Oh, what's that? They are getting all the hype in the world for losing in the first round of the playoffs and beating up really ****ty programs?

Idaho had wins against
Drake - a bad PFL program
Portland State - 4-7
NAU - 3-8
UNC - 3-8
EWU 3-8
Idaho State - 1-10

BUT THEY PLAYED SAC STATE REALLY CLOSE!!!! THAT MATTERS, JUST LIKE IT DOES FOR HOLY CROSS (Just not UNI).

I can't wait for UNI to get a MASSIVE poll boost when they butt **** Idaho State in game 3. That has to be coming, right? It works for all the Big Sky schools. The top of the big sky gets so ****ing propped up by the conference creating schedules to inflate the records of the top 3 or 4 schools each year by only given them the bottom 30% of the conference. It's incredible, really.

It's not like UNI returns 9 starters from last year offense and is going into the second year with this offensive scheme. Yeah, as good as last year's offense got to be it was still only year 1 with that OC and a complete change from anything UNI had ever run. Oh, but we did lose the OL coach to Iowa State so massive setback. I bet he wasn't replaced by the OL coach before him that put something like 9 OL in the NFL in 7 seasons.
UNI did have a pretty rough defense last year - at least by UNI standards. I bet that wasn't addressed. I bet that DC wasn't fired and replaced by the DC that created something like 15 All American's during his previous tenure at UNI and ran the defense that UNI was known for.

UNI sucks. Certainly would be the 6th best team in the CAA, if lucky. Also 100% not as good as the OVC/MEAC.

Speaking of that SDSU game for UNI...I may have some very close knowledge of what SDSU players thought about the teams they played last year. I may or may not work directly with some fairly well-known players family. I've heard who the players for SDSU thought were the most phsyical/best/etc. teams they played last year. You'd be shocked how high on that list ****ty little UNI falls in relation to, say, another team of similar colors

[FUBeAR]

UC Davis also went 6-5 last year 1000% belongs in the top 13 in basically every poll. I mean, sure it was only 6 wins but look at the amazing teams they beat.

A PFL team
NAU 3-8
UNC 3-8
Poly 2-9
Idaho State 1-10
Idaho 7-5


Oh - and speaking of Idaho. They MUST be a preseason top 5-7 no questions asked. Why? They won 7 whole games last year. And they definitely didn't just beat up on the bottom of the Big Sky. They also made the playoffs and they certainly didn't lose in the first round. Teams that have 6 or 7 wins but don't win at least 3 playoff games have to be considered overrrated and fall start low in the next poll....right? Oh, what's that? They are getting all the hype in the world for losing in the first round of the playoffs and beating up really ****ty programs?

Idaho had wins against
Drake - a bad PFL program
Portland State - 4-7
NAU - 3-8
UNC - 3-8
EWU 3-8
Idaho State - 1-10

BUT THEY PLAYED SAC STATE REALLY CLOSE!!!! THAT MATTERS
You didn't copyright any of this part, did you?

FUBeAR might need to reprint it...many times!

[nodak651]

Oh I can easily make a case that UNI should be between 8-13 right now. 10000%. Wouldn't be hard to do

BUT

This is AGS.

This is the home of "UNI is the most overrated team of all time". An actual title that has been bestowed upon UNI based on poll data where UNI had the greatest different between average preseason rank and final rank when the honor was bestowed. The average starting rank was something like 5 and the average final rank as something like 13. Having that 8 spot swing became proof UNI was always overrated. Then it became "UNI is only ranked high because of the name", which was weird to me because UNI was known as the most overrated team, yet somehow was only ranked because of name. Then it became "only ranked because they play in the Valley". and "UNI always loses first round of the playoffs" - something that's happened only twice in 22 playoff trips

So the reality is UNI, even at 23, is overrated.

They went 6-5 last year. No reason to rank them.

However, it's intersting that UC Davis also went 6-5 last year 1000% belongs in the top 13 in basically every poll. I mean, sure it was only 6 wins but look at the amazing teams they beat. Teams UNI could only dream of having a chance to beat

A PFL team
NAU 3-8
UNC 3-8
Poly 2-9
Idaho State 1-10
Idaho 7-5


Oh - and speaking of Idaho. They MUST be a preseason top 5-7 no questions asked. Why? They won 7 whole games last year. And they definitely didn't just beat up on the bottom of the Big Sky. They also made the playoffs and they certainly didn't lose in the first round. Teams that have 6 or 7 wins but don't win at least 3 playoff games have to be considered overrrated and fall start low in the next poll....right? Oh, what's that? They are getting all the hype in the world for losing in the first round of the playoffs and beating up really ****ty programs?

Idaho had wins against
Drake - a bad PFL program
Portland State - 4-7
NAU - 3-8
UNC - 3-8
EWU 3-8
Idaho State - 1-10

BUT THEY PLAYED SAC STATE REALLY CLOSE!!!! THAT MATTERS, JUST LIKE IT DOES FOR HOLY CROSS (Just not UNI).

I can't wait for UNI to get a MASSIVE poll boost when they butt **** Idaho State in game 3. That has to be coming, right? It works for all the Big Sky schools. The top of the big sky gets so ****ing propped up by the conference creating schedules to inflate the records of the top 3 or 4 schools each year by only given them the bottom 30% of the conference. It's incredible, really.

It's not like UNI returns 9 starters from last year offense and is going into the second year with this offensive scheme. Yeah, as good as last year's offense got to be it was still only year 1 with that OC and a complete change from anything UNI had ever run. Oh, but we did lose the OL coach to Iowa State so massive setback. I bet he wasn't replaced by the OL coach before him that put something like 9 OL in the NFL in 7 seasons.
UNI did have a pretty rough defense last year - at least by UNI standards. I bet that wasn't addressed. I bet that DC wasn't fired and replaced by the DC that created something like 15 All American's during his previous tenure at UNI and ran the defense that UNI was known for.

UNI sucks. Certainly would be the 6th best team in the CAA, if lucky. Also 100% not as good as the OVC/MEAC.

Speaking of that SDSU game for UNI...I may have some very close knowledge of what SDSU players thought about the teams they played last year. I may or may not work directly with some fairly well-known players family. I've heard who the players for SDSU thought were the most phsyical/best/etc. teams they played last year. You'd be shocked how high on that list ****ty little UNI falls in relation to, say, another team of similar colors

I'd love to disagree with you, but you absolutely nailed it. The national "media" at our level is garbage. It's mostly group think and most of the pollsters seem to just copy Sam Herder once he puts out a "too early top 25" in the spring.

Look how garbage last years poll was, for example. https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/national-champ-north-dakota-state-an-overwhelming-no-1-in-stats-perform-fcs-preseason-top-25/

[FUBeAR]

I'd love to disagree with you, but you absolutely nailed it. The national "media" at our level is garbage. It's mostly group think and most of the pollsters seem to just copy Sam Herder once he puts out a "too early top 25" in the spring.
Glad to see FUBeAR doesn't have to buy hymnals for everyone. Good to see others singing out of the right one...finally.

And...oh...it's not just the National Media. It's almost every Pollster, Prognosticator, and Pundit out there. If they can spell FCS, they know, and are happy to share, just how tough Big Sky Portland State can be at home and they wouldn't want to face CAA Towson in their place. And 'bad takes' like those proliferate and 'roll up' to where they do impact Playoff Selections and Seed determinations which fosters ongoing structural determinism across the FCS and the FCS Playoffs.

#DefundTheCommittee

[nodak651]

Glad to see FUBeAR doesn't have to buy hymnals for everyone. Good to see others singing out of the right one...finally.

And...oh...it's not just the National Media. It's almost every Pollster, Prognosticator, and Pundit out there. If they can spell FCS, they know, and are happy to share, just how tough Big Sky Portland State can be at home and they wouldn't want to face CAA Towson in their place. And 'bad takes' like those proliferate and 'roll up' to where they do impact Playoff Selections and Seed determinations and fostering ongoing structural determinism across the FCS and the FCS Playoffs.

#DefundTheCommittee

Yeah, I edited the post to show how far off they were with last season's pre season poll. https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/national-champ-north-dakota-state-an-overwhelming-no-1-in-stats-perform-fcs-preseason-top-25/

It's funny how sure of themselves the pollsters always are.

[FUBeAR]

I'd love to disagree with you, but you absolutely nailed it. The national "media" at our level is garbage. It's mostly group think and most of the pollsters seem to just copy Sam Herder once he puts out a "too early top 25" in the spring.

Look how garbage last years poll was, for example. https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/national-champ-north-dakota-state-an-overwhelming-no-1-in-stats-perform-fcs-preseason-top-25/
Yep - Pretty good at the VERY TOP (how much of that is due to structural determinism? The correct answer is "More than 0%") as their Top 2 Played in the Championship game and their #4 was in the Semi-Finals.

BUT ...
* #3 probably shouldn't have been in the Playoff field...faced an meh Team AT HOME, of course in Round 1...and was rightfully booted by 4 scores in their next game
* #'s 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 18, 21, 22, 23,and 25 - OVER 1/2 of their Top 25 Teams did not even make the Playoffs
* They had a #7 Seeded Semi-Finalist (almost a Finalist...maybe shoulda been - fumble call was somethin') ranked #14 - maybe they are more highly Seeded and Advance further if they had been ranked more accurately
* They had a #6 Seeded Quarter-Finalist unranked in their Top 39 Teams - maybe they are more highly Seeded and Advance further if they had been ranked more accurately

[atthewbon]

Oh I can easily make a case that UNI should be between 8-13 right now. 10000%. Wouldn't be hard to do

BUT

This is AGS.

This is the home of "UNI is the most overrated team of all time". An actual title that has been bestowed upon UNI based on poll data where UNI had the greatest different between average preseason rank and final rank when the honor was bestowed. The average starting rank was something like 5 and the average final rank as something like 13. Having that 8 spot swing became proof UNI was always overrated. Then it became "UNI is only ranked high because of the name", which was weird to me because UNI was known as the most overrated team, yet somehow was only ranked because of name. Then it became "only ranked because they play in the Valley". and "UNI always loses first round of the playoffs" - something that's happened only twice in 22 playoff trips

So the reality is UNI, even at 23, is overrated.

They went 6-5 last year. No reason to rank them.

However, it's intersting that UC Davis also went 6-5 last year 1000% belongs in the top 13 in basically every poll. I mean, sure it was only 6 wins but look at the amazing teams they beat. Teams UNI could only dream of having a chance to beat

A PFL team
NAU 3-8
UNC 3-8
Poly 2-9
Idaho State 1-10
Idaho 7-5


Oh - and speaking of Idaho. They MUST be a preseason top 5-7 no questions asked. Why? They won 7 whole games last year. And they definitely didn't just beat up on the bottom of the Big Sky. They also made the playoffs and they certainly didn't lose in the first round. Teams that have 6 or 7 wins but don't win at least 3 playoff games have to be considered overrrated and fall start low in the next poll....right? Oh, what's that? They are getting all the hype in the world for losing in the first round of the playoffs and beating up really ****ty programs?

Idaho had wins against
Drake - a bad PFL program
Portland State - 4-7
NAU - 3-8
UNC - 3-8
EWU 3-8
Idaho State - 1-10

BUT THEY PLAYED SAC STATE REALLY CLOSE!!!! THAT MATTERS, JUST LIKE IT DOES FOR HOLY CROSS (Just not UNI).

I can't wait for UNI to get a MASSIVE poll boost when they butt **** Idaho State in game 3. That has to be coming, right? It works for all the Big Sky schools. The top of the big sky gets so ****ing propped up by the conference creating schedules to inflate the records of the top 3 or 4 schools each year by only given them the bottom 30% of the conference. It's incredible, really.

It's not like UNI returns 9 starters from last year offense and is going into the second year with this offensive scheme. Yeah, as good as last year's offense got to be it was still only year 1 with that OC and a complete change from anything UNI had ever run. Oh, but we did lose the OL coach to Iowa State so massive setback. I bet he wasn't replaced by the OL coach before him that put something like 9 OL in the NFL in 7 seasons.
UNI did have a pretty rough defense last year - at least by UNI standards. I bet that wasn't addressed. I bet that DC wasn't fired and replaced by the DC that created something like 15 All American's during his previous tenure at UNI and ran the defense that UNI was known for.

UNI sucks. Certainly would be the 6th best team in the CAA, if lucky. Also 100% not as good as the OVC/MEAC.

Speaking of that SDSU game for UNI...I may have some very close knowledge of what SDSU players thought about the teams they played last year. I may or may not work directly with some fairly well-known players family. I've heard who the players for SDSU thought were the most phsyical/best/etc. teams they played last year. You'd be shocked how high on that list ****ty little UNI falls in relation to, say, another team of similar colors

When it comes to my ballot and these there teams, I had Idaho 10, UC Davis 18, and UNI 20. The Idaho ranking for me is largely based on my confidence in Jason Eck as a head coach and the turnaround he was able to do in year 1, I think he was a great hire who will turn the program around. You also left off Idaho's win at Montana last year when looking at their wins, which is a pretty big one. UC Davis and UNI had similar years last year and I think will both have pretty similar years again thus their similar ranking. I agree that the pollsters are too high on UC Davis...

As many have alluded to, I think this poll was too high on the Big Sky and particularly the CAA. It is a preseason poll, so there are a lot of questions and room for debate, after the top 3 I can see arguments for a lot of different teams.

[SDFS]

I can't wait for UNI to get a MASSIVE poll boost when they butt **** Idaho State in game 3. That has to be coming, right? It works for all the Big Sky schools. The top of the big sky gets so ****ing propped up by the conference creating schedules to inflate the records of the top 3 or 4 schools each year by only given them the bottom 30% of the conference. It's incredible, really.

It's not like UNI returns 9 starters from last year offense and is going into the second year with this offensive scheme. Yeah, as good as last year's offense got to be it was still only year 1 with that OC and a complete change from anything UNI had ever run. Oh, but we did lose the OL coach to Iowa State so massive setback. I bet he wasn't replaced by the OL coach before him that put something like 9 OL in the NFL in 7 seasons.
UNI did have a pretty rough defense last year - at least by UNI standards. I bet that wasn't addressed. I bet that DC wasn't fired and replaced by the DC that created something like 15 All American's during his previous tenure at UNI and ran the defense that UNI was known for.

UNI sucks. Certainly would be the 6th best team in the CAA, if lucky. Also 100% not as good as the OVC/MEAC.

Speaking of that SDSU game for UNI...I may have some very close knowledge of what SDSU players thought about the teams they played last year. I may or may not work directly with some fairly well-known players family. I've heard who the players for SDSU thought were the most phsyical/best/etc. teams they played last year. You'd be shocked how high on that list ****ty little UNI falls in relation to, say, another team of similar colors

Yes, I know all of this already. The UND podcast was very complimentary of UNI and said the same thing about the offense (x-EWU OC when they went to Frisco and lost to NDSU). They are looking for another step forward this year. UNI with a return of the defense and an expanded offense is going nightmare. I think they take SDSU on the road this year and they are even money for me to win the MVFC. But, it's a long season and we will have to see how things play out. I look forward to your carefully crafted pose this season.

[Gil Dobie]

#39 St Thomas at unranked Harvard

9/16

this ought to be good

Do the Tommies still have DIII recruits on their team?

[OhioHen]

6 Big Sky Teams in Top 16 makes no sense.
7 CAA Teams in Top 37 makes no sense.

The AGS poll disagrees with you on the Big Sky. 6 in the top 16.
The AGS poll agrees with you on the CAA as only 6 were included in the preseason top 40 (although all 6 were in the top 25).

[caribbeanhen]

Do the Tommies still have DIII recruits on their team?

Don’t know, but obviously the stats voters think their better than Harvard with or without

[ElCid]

I'd love to disagree with you, but you absolutely nailed it. The national "media" at our level is garbage. It's mostly group think and most of the pollsters seem to just copy Sam Herder once he puts out a "too early top 25" in the spring.

Look how garbage last years poll was, for example. https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/national-champ-north-dakota-state-an-overwhelming-no-1-in-stats-perform-fcs-preseason-top-25/

Yup. People who make authoritative predictions need to be held accountable, but they never are. Doesn't matter the area or topic, be it sports, science, politics, economic, etc.). Too many simply throw out garbage, or worse a prediction that is specifically connived, and they are never questioned when it turns out they were clueless or simply being manipulative. Mainly because nobody calls them on it. So thanks for posting this!

[clenz]

Yes, I know all of this already. The UND podcast was very complimentary of UNI and said the same thing about the offense (x-EWU OC when they went to Frisco and lost to NDSU). They are looking for another step forward this year. UNI with a return of the defense and an expanded offense is going nightmare. I think they take SDSU on the road this year and they are even money for me to win the MVFC. But, it's a long season and we will have to see how things play out. I look forward to your carefully crafted pose this season.I want to add a few thoughts to clarify some things I said

I realize my UNI bias. I understand I know so much more about what caused the early season issuse last year than anyone else on this forum for the simple fact none of you follow UNI any closer than I follow Furman or Holy Cross. I don't expect anyone to know just how awful our DC was. During the UND game he was sending in 4-3 personnel and calling 3-4 or 3-3 plays. A big reason UND burned the secondary deep so often in that game was that he would call schemes that would be an underneath zone for the corners but then lock the safeties into a man coverage on a slot or TE. He tried to move a multi-time All-American safety to defensive end and a defensive end to strong safety. He was stripped of his play-calling duties partway through the season and Farley took over. Everyone pointed to the Air Force game for how bad the defense was, and how badly it skewed the stats. Farley did zero prep for that game in terms of trying to put a defense in. He admitted so leading up to the game last year. It's an offense you will never see again and Air Force runs it better than anyone in the country has in the last 50 years outside of peak Georgia Tech. Even with that and giving up 500 yards of rushing something like 325 of them came on 4 or 5 runs. It was all just broken/poor angles. It sucks, but it is what it is.

Look at the stats after Farley took over. The best defensive job against the pass in the first half of the season would have been the worst job in the second half. Same for rushing. The defense went from giving up 8.8 yards per carry to less than 4 - and we played WIU and ISUB in the first half of the season. Went from giving up 30 ppg to 22.

But again, no one outside of UNI is going to know that. No one is going to see that or think to look into it. That's fine. I accept that.

I can even accept being low ranked, or not ranked, to a larger extent as well. My gripe isn't really where UNI is ranked. It is applying logic for ranking a MEAC, OVC, or half of the CAA/Big Sky for running up their win total against absolute body bags within their conference but then holding that against UNI (or a Valley team like UND even).

"UNI only had 6 wins and they didn't beat SDSU or Sac State so they can't be ranked higher than they are because they didn't beat anyone". Fine. I can't argue that logic.

But then to look at Idaho and go "7 total wins and 6 of them were against teams worse than basically anyone UNI played or at best on par with any of UNI's wins means THEY HAVE TO BE RANKED and ranked super highly. Sure they lost first round of the playoffs (something we'd crush UNI for) but they played it close." Meanwhile, UNI playing Sac State close (and anyone who looks beyond the final score and sees it was a 1 score game with UNI driving to take the lead with less than 4 mniutes left before it went wonky - it was 27-21 before a FG made it 30-21 and UNI late game failed on a 4th down and rather than running the clock out Sac State continued running trick plays to score again in the final seconds) SDSU close is ignored and used as proof UNI wasn't good enough to win so they shouldn't be ranked.

Holy Cross plays legitimately one of the worst schedules in America, of course, they are going to win every single game. UNI, UND, ISUR, SIU, etc. would too if they played that schedule. They get the boost of no one actually scrutinizing their schedule like you see done to Valley programs who aren't a "DSU". Oh, and they played "SDSU THE TOUGHEST OF ANYONE"....Bull****. I stand by the fact that UNI would have beaten Holy Cross last year by the end of the season. Also, it wasn't the toughest. Hanging close for 3 quarters? Good job. Congrats on being an average MVFC team.

Do you (royal you, not you specifically SDFS) honestly think UNI wouldn't do well in the MEAC or OVC or Patriot or SWAC OR Southland or whatever the WAC-SUN is calling itself these days? The fact a team that consistently finishes top 3 or 4 in the Valley is always ranked behind teams that do well in those conferences and have a lot of wins simply because they play the worst schedules in America is asinine and the definition of slot-voting based solely on the number in the W column. Team won game they have to move up...team lost game must move down.

The Big Sky and CAA somehow get the benefit that the Valley doesn't. Their leagues are so large that they can skew schedules to give 5 teams 6+ conference wins and go "LOOK HOW GOOD ALL THESE TEAMS ARE". Then they get into the playoffs and finish sub .500 as a conference even though they get fed the NEC, MEAC, PFL, Patriot, etc. for the non-seeded teams. At least when UNI backs its way into the playoffs it beats the **** out of the AQs from those leagues (who they are always ranked lower than) before losing to SDSU or NDSU in the playoffs.

My issue is the complete lack of consistency anyone puts into their rankings and justifications for their voting. My issue is the complete lack of willingness to not slot vote. I see every thread people go "AGS does the best at not slot voting". Maybe that's true, but holy **** that doesn't actually mean what everyone thinks it means. It's still slot-voted all to hell. I already have predicted every argument against UNI for the first 5 games of the season, no matter the result, for why people will refuse to move them up or will drop them like a rock. It's so predictable. (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?336115-2023-interesting-OOC-and-Quirky-games&p=3133089#post3133089)Then when voters get called on it they just go "Yeah, I probably messed that up and didn't actually think about it" and just move on to the next week to repeat the same things.

I can take and spin everything I just said for UNI for a number of other teams as to why they're being ranked where they are is pretty bunk and based. It's just easier for me to do through my, again, admitted UNI bias. For all I know, Theo Day isn't any good and throws 27 picks this year or has his knee blown apart in game 1. The defense doesn't get better with Jeremiah Johnson back in charge. Maybe UNI finishes 4-7. I don't know. However, that wouldn't justify a low-rank preseason because there is zero chance anyone looks at UNI, objectively, coming into this season and goes "That's what's going to happen" given everyone that returns for UNI while also ignoring someone like WSU and them losing their coaches and as many star players as they did and then going "Yeah, but it's WSU so reloading is what they do so they should be ranked high"

[POD Knows]

Don’t know, but obviously the stats voters think their better than Harvard with or without
Harvard will beat St Thomas. I didn’t have St Thomas in my top 25, not sold on these guys.

[caribbeanhen]

Harvard will beat St Thomas. I didn’t have St Thomas in my top 25, not sold on these guys.

Massey prediction
Harvard 38
St Thomas 14

I say much closer game
St T will have played 2 games coming in including South Dakota

Harvard will pull it out late

[KPSUL]

Massey prediction
Harvard 38
St Thomas 14

I say much closer game
St T will have played 2 games coming in including South Dakota

Harvard will pull it out late

Sounds like Merrimack @ Harvard last season (Harvard's 1st game). Harvard 28-21 in OT.

[caribbeanhen]

Sounds like Merrimack @ Harvard last season (Harvard's 1st game). Harvard 28-21 in OT.

I can agree with you on that