Ranking the top conferences

[stonemd]

Given the preseason AGS poll how would you rank the top conferences?

Big Sky conference has 6/12 members ranked top 25 - 50%
CAA has 6/15 -40%
Missouri Valley has 4/12 - 33%
SOCON has 4/9 - 44%

If you assign 25 power points to being ranked #1 and 24 pts for #2 etc

Big Sky has 89 power points/ 6 ranked teams = 14.9 power points per ranked team
Big Sky has 89 power points /12 conference teams = 7.4 power points per conference team

CAA has 51 pp/6 ranked teams = 8.5 power points per ranked team
CAA 51 power points/15 teams = 3.4 pp per team

Missouri Valley has 64 pp/4 ranked teams = 16 power points per ranked team
Missouri Valley 64pp/12 teams = 5.3 pp per team

SOCON has 50 pp/4 ranked teams = 12.5 power points per ranked team
SOCON has 50 power points/9 teams = 5.6 power points per team




Teams in conference
Ranked teams
% of teams ranked
power points
pp per confernce team
pp per ranked team


Big Sky
12
6
50%
89
7.42
14.83


CAA
15
6
40%
51
3.40
8.50


MV
12
4
33%
64
5.33
16.00


SOCON
9
4
44%
50
5.56
12.50



these 4 conferences have 20/25 ranked teams !

I would currently rank the big 4
1 Big Sky
2 MV and SOCON
3 CAA

[DFW HOYA]

The conference tiers are fairly stable. In no particular order:

1. MVFC, Big Sky, CAA
2. Southern, UAC, Southland
3. OVC/Big South, Ivy
4. MEAC, Patriot, SWAC, NEC
5. Pioneer

[crusader11]

The conference tiers are fairly stable. In no particular order:

1. MVFC, Big Sky, CAA
2. Southern, UAC, Southland
3. OVC/Big South, Ivy
4. MEAC, Patriot, SWAC, NEC
5. Pioneer

Are you sure the SoCon is below the CAA? Several years ago, yes, but not these days.

[MSUBobcat]

Given the preseason AGS poll how would you rank the top conferences?

Big Sky conference has 6/12 members ranked top 25 - 50%
CAA has 6/15 -40%
Missouri Valley has 4/12 - 33%
SOCON has 4/9 - 44%

If you assign 25 power points to being ranked #1 and 24 pts for #2 etc

Big Sky has 89 power points/ 6 ranked teams = 14.9 power points per ranked team
Big Sky has 89 power points /12 conference teams = 7.4 power points per conference team

CAA has 51 pp/6 ranked teams = 8.5 power points per ranked team
CAA 51 power points/15 teams = 3.4 pp per team

Missouri Valley has 64 pp/4 ranked teams = 16 power points per ranked team
Missouri Valley 64pp/12 teams = 5.3 pp per team

SOCON has 50 pp/4 ranked teams = 12.5 power points per ranked team
SOCON has 50 power points/9 teams = 5.6 power points per team




Teams in conference
Ranked teams
% of teams ranked
power points
pp per confernce team
pp per ranked team


Big Sky
12
6
50%
89
7.42
14.83


CAA
15
6
40%
51
3.40
8.50


MV
12
4
33%
64
5.33
16.00


SOCON
9
4
44%
50
5.56
12.50



these 4 conferences have 20/25 ranked teams !

I would currently rank the big 4
1 Big Sky
2 MV and SOCON
3 CAA




Holy crap... I don't really have much to say on the topic but FIVE posts in nearly 10 years?!?!? Don't wear out that keyboard!

[ElCid]

Looking at just the poll, ours or any other, doesn't speak to the entire conferences. Gotta look at the middle and bottom tiers as well to evaluate overall strength. Looking at the two big computer ratings gives a better perspective.

[FUBeAR]

The conference tiers are fairly stable. In no particular order:

1. MVFC
2a. Southern, Southland
2b. Big Sky, CAA
3. OVC/Big South, Ivy, UAC
4. Patriot, SWAC
5. MEAC, NEC
6. Pioneer
fyp

[stonemd]

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings?c=1

I’ll look at 2023 Massey Ranking

Average Team Ranking
Missouri Valley 26
Big Sky 32
SOCON 32
CAA 46

Average Ranking Top Half Teams
Big Sky 7
MV 8
SOCON 13
CAA 27

Average Ranking Bottom Half teams
MV 43
SOCON 51
Big Sky 57
CAA 63


From this data I’d rank conferences
1 MV
2 Big Sky
3 SOCON
4 CAA (4th place in all categories)

[ElCid]

I'm not a fan of just averaging the ranking. Massey lists the conferences as follows based on the ratings of teams, not rankings.

MVFC - 6.62
BS - 6.48
Southern - 6.37
CAA - 6.12

The Atlantic Sun, AQ7, and WAC are all close under them, but they have 5 teams each so small sample size. The next full size conference is the Ivy at 5.91.

[FUBeAR]

I'm not a fan of just averaging the ranking. Massey lists the conferences as follows based on the ratings of teams, not rankings.

MVFC - 6.62
BS - 6.48
Southern - 6.37
CAA - 6.12

The Atlantic Sun, AQ7, and WAC are all close under them, but they have 5 teams each so small sample size. The next full size conference is the Ivy at 5.91.The last 3 listed don’t exist and the Teams Mr. Massey lists in each are a coagulated conglomeration of clutter.

He needs to update.

[atthewbon]

I posted this in another thread a couple weeks ago. If I were ranking the top conferences this is how I would do it…

MVFC
gap
Big Sky/CAA
SOCON/SOUTHLAND
gap
everyone else


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The OVC is trending up imo. It is a conference that could have 3 maybe even 4 Top 25 teams this season. I've been impressed with how the league office has navigated the recent shakeups in FCS.

[stonemd]

I posted this in another thread a couple weeks ago. If I were ranking the top conferences this is how I would do it…

MVFC
gap
Big Sky/CAA
SOCON/SOUTHLAND
gap
everyone else



Easy to make an argument for MB and Big Sky top 2

I don’t understand the reason that CAA should be ranked
above SOCON - all the preseason polls point to the opposite.

[FUBeAR]

Easy to make an argument for MB and Big Sky top 2

I don’t understand the reason that CAA should be ranked
above SOCON - all the preseason polls point to the opposite.FUBeAR sees “MD” in your name … and was thinking you are a Medical Doctor, but you must be unfamiliar with Big Sky Missouri Valley Symbiosis (BS-MVS). It’s a horrible disease! FUBeAR has been blindsided and caught in the throes of it on multiple occasions.

If we could #DefundTheCommittee, that could, possibly, serve as the vaccine that the FCS needs to rid ourselves of this scourge that preys primarily upon Southern, Coastal, and Southland people.

[atthewbon]

Easy to make an argument for MB and Big Sky top 2

I don’t understand the reason that CAA should be ranked
above SOCON - all the preseason polls point to the opposite.

I think the Big Sky and CAA are just a touch ahead of the SOCON and Southland because of the playoff success they have had and lack-thereof from the SOCON. IMO the CAA is getting closer to the SOCON without JMU and the lack of depth in the conference with the new additions.

I do agree it’s closer than I originally noted. This is probably a more accurate ranking…
MVFC
gap
Big Sky
CAA/SOCON
Southland
gap
everyone else

[FUBeAR]

I think the Big Sky and CAA are just a touch ahead of the SOCON and Southland because of the playoff success they have had and lack-thereof from the SOCON.
Many of us are familiar with “jury nullification.” This is when the jury decides to ignore the evidence and returns a verdict based on the feelings they held before being presented with and reviewing the evidence. Often, in these cases, during deliberations, jury members will work very hard to ‘torture’ the evidence, twisting and turning it until, if they don’t look closely and squint their eyes just right, they can convince themselves that the evidence actually does support the feelings they had before they were presented with and ‘tortured’ the evidence.

Above is an example of “thread nullification.”

In this thread…

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?335772-Massey-2023-Pre-Season-Projections-W-L-Playoff-Teams-AQ-amp-At-Large&referrerid=40958

…FUBeAR used all data from the 24 Teams / 8 Seeds Playoffs era (all 9 seasons of this structure). No matter how the data was sliced and diced, the same inference emerged:

Based upon performance in the Playoffs, the Big Sky Conference has been vastly over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded by the Playoff Committee.

Feel free to review the data there and you will also find atthewbon there twisting, turning, and squinting. The BS-MVS is strong in that one!

[Gil Dobie]

Should be

SoCon
Huge gap
MVFC/Big Sky
CAA

[FUBeAR]

Should be

SoCon
Huge gap
MVFC/Big Sky
CAA
Greatly looking forward to seeing the extensive data analysis you have conducted to support your assertion of this conclusion!

[Gil Dobie]

Greatly looking forward to seeing the extensive data analysis you have conducted to support your assertion of this conclusion!

I get that from reading your post.

[FUBeAR]

I get that from reading your post.
Try this then.

https://readingeggs.com/articles/2018-11-12-online-reading-programmes-for-struggling-readers/#

Perhaps it will be helpful with your readily apparent challenges.

[ElCid]

I posted this in another thread a couple weeks ago. If I were ranking the top conferences this is how I would do it…

MVFC
gap
Big Sky/CAA
SOCON/SOUTHLAND
gap
everyone else


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you only look at the top teams in each conf, and in the past, not today, then ok. But if you look top to bottom in each conf then CAA has obviously slipped, mainly due to it being even more diluted and the SOCON is a bit better now. But depends on how you slice it obviously. Anyone can pick what works as a "best look" for their conf. Like just looking at the top teams, or playoff record, or whatever. But if you look at each and every team.... But it is still close. The BS is close as well. And the MVFC doesn't have as big a gap as they had previously. But it is all academic at this point.

[caribbeanhen]

Hampton vs VMI in the Boulevard of broken dreams Bowl

[MR. CHICKEN]

Hampton vs VMI in the Boulevard of broken dreams Bowl

.....ON DUH + SIDE....ONE UH 'EM....WILL WIN........PROLLY.....PIRATES.......BUT DAT'S JES'.....SKUTTLEBUT..........:D.......BRAWK!

[caribbeanhen]

.....ON DUH + SIDE....ONE UH 'EM....WILL WIN........PROLLY.....PIRATES.......BUT DAT'S JES'.....SKUTTLEBUT..........:D.......BRAWK!

I passed by the stadium at Hampton recently, biggest ugliest blue faded track you will ever see, maybe they wanted to make the Pirates think they were out on the Pacific…. The EZ seating is about 40 yards behind the EZ. Our fans will have lots to complain about on that visit Im sure

[Gil Dobie]

Try this then.

https://readingeggs.com/articles/2018-11-12-online-reading-programmes-for-struggling-readers/#

Perhaps it will be helpful with your readily apparent challenges.

Denile is in Egypt FUBear. You keep pumping FU and the SoCon by bashing other teams and conferences. I'm just following you lead. NDSU will be down this year, so here's you chance to gloat.

[FUBeAR]

I passed by the stadium at Hampton recently, biggest ugliest blue faded track you will ever see, maybe they wanted to make the Pirates think they were out on the Pacific…. The EZ seating is about 40 yards behind the EZ. Our fans will have lots to complain about on that visit Im sure
Know your Coastal Atheltic Association Stadia - Hampton up 1st, followed by the Camels, then A&T. 2:14 total time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i92sXinaE9s

[FUBeAR]

You keep pumping FU and the SoCon by bashing other teams and conferences.
You either cannot read, are unable to comprehend written communications, or are a malicious purveyor of misinformation. Perhaps all of the above.

Thorough analysis of Playoff results CLEARLY shows the Big Sky Conference has been vastly over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded during the 24 Teams / 8 Seeds era.

If you disagree with that analysis, torture the data until you get it to say something different that you would prefer it to say, as some of your MVFC fellow-fans have done, but don’t just make up ****. It’s silly.

[wapiti]

You either cannot read, are unable to comprehend written communications, or are a malicious purveyor of misinformation. Perhaps all of the above.

Thorough analysis of Playoff results CLEARLY shows the Big Sky Conference has been vastly over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded during the 24 Teams / 8 Seeds era.

If you disagree with that analysis, torture the data until you get it to say something different that you would prefer it to say, as some of your MVFC fellow-fans have done, but don’t just make up ****. It’s silly.

You have a ways to go to equal the status of that Chattanooga fan from many years ago. Keep it up. This is entertaining.
What was his username?? chatt "something or other"

[FUBeAR]

You have a ways to go to equal the status of that Chattanooga fan from many years ago. Keep it up. This is entertaining.
What was his username?? chatt "something or other"
The lack of literary discernment shown above says a lot more about its author than it does FUBeAR, but keep it up. You, Gil Dobie, and a few others can get together and form a great doowop group - The Crowing Rudiments.

[Professor Chaos]

My thesis on the Big Sky being exposed in the playoffs is because they had a giant conference with some good teams at the top but some real poor teams at the bottom - the ensuing unbalanced conference schedules meant that not all the good teams played each other but they all got their fair share (or more) of cupcakes to pad their conference W-L records. So some of their teams that got into the playoffs or got seeds were legit but others took advantage of the soft unbalanced schedules to look better than they were.

There's another conference out there that's falling into that same trap IMO (it rhymes with Wee-Pelé).

[Redbird 4th & short]

Regarding Big Sky, I don't get the notion they are over-rated at all. They aren't just ranked high these 4 season, they do well in playoffs. Typically, if your getting too many bids, your aggregate playoff record will be under .500.

As for Big Sky the last 5 years:

2018 .. 4 bids went 6-4 in playoffs with all 4 losses to top 8 seeds, 2 being to NDSU. all 4 made round of 16, 3 made round of 8, 1 made round of 4, 1 made championship .. final 4 had NDSU, SDSU, EWU, Maine .. though EWU beat Maine 50-19 in semis. Pretty impressive showing.

2019 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs with 3 losses to top 8 seeds, 2 being NDSU and JMU. 4 of 5 made round of 16, 3 made round of 8, 2 made final 4. It was NDSU vs JMU in Natty. Another impressive showing. MVFC also had 3 in round of 8, leaving just 1 other team not Big Sky or MVFC or JMU.

2020 .. goofy pandemic season, not relevant

2021 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs with 2 losses to SDSU (final 4 team) and 3 to top 8 seeds (NDSU, JMU, Mont St) ... all 5 losses were to teams who made final 4. So 4 made round of 16, 2 made round of 8, 1 made final 4 and final.

2022 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs, but 2 losses were against Big Sky, and remaining 3 were against top 8 seeds. So 4 made round of 16, just 2 made round of 8 (w/ losses to Big Sky and NDSU), and 1 made final 4. In round of 8, #2 Sac St lost by 3 to #7 IW, who then lost to #2 NDSU by just 3 as well. So Sac St proved they belonged in round of 8 ... the other 3 round of 8 losers lost by 21, 48, and 18, putting Sac St at a very solid 5th, a long with Mont St 3rd or 4th. So they had 2 in the top 5 this season.

So while they havent won a Natty, or outperformed their regular season rankings. They have competed at a very high level dealing with a lot of losses to teams like NDSU, SDSU, JMU, other Top 8 seeds, and other Big Sky teams. They did make 2 Nattys, losing to NDSU both times. So the SOS associated with their 21-20 record is extremely high, and they played very few autobids .. maybe one.

Of the 32 round of 8 participants since 2018 (ex 2020), Big Sky has had 10 of 32, MVFC has 9 of 32, CAA has just 5.

So I don't think any other conference is close to Big Sky since 2018, except MVFC with NDSU and SDSU tipping the scales decidedly to MVFC. Not Colonial or Southern or Southland is even close to that 5 year performance, especially considering their SOS.

[FUBeAR]

Regarding Big Sky, I on't get the notion they are over-rated at all:

2018 .. 4 bids went 6-4 in playoffs with all 4 losses to top 8 seeds, 2 being to NDSU. all 4 made round of 16, 3 made round of 8, 1 made round of 4, 1 made championship .. final 4 had NDSU, SDSU, EWU, Maine .. though EWU beat Maine 50-19 in semis. Pretty impressive showing.

2019 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs with 3 losses to top 8 seeds, 2 being NDSU and JMU. 4 of 5 made round of 16, 3 made round of 8, 2 made final 4. It was NDSU vs JMU in Natty. Another impressive showing.

2020 .. goofy pandemic season, not relevant

2021 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs with 2 losses to SDSU (final 4 team) and 3 to top 8 seeds (NDSU, JMU, Mont St) ... all 5 losses were to teams who made final 4. So 4 made round of 16, 2 made round of 8, 1 made final 4 and final.

2022 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs, but 2 losses were against Big Sky, and remaining 3 were against top 8 seeds. So 4 made round of 16, just 2 made round of 8 (w/ losses to Big Sky and NDSU). In round of 8, #2 Sac St lost by 3 to #7 IW, who then lost to #2 NDSU by just 3 as well. So Sac St proved they belonged in round of 8 ... the other 3 round of 8 losers lost by 21, 48, and 18, putting Sac St at a very solid 5th, a long with Mont St 3rd or 4th.

So while they havent won a Natty or competed at a very high level going 21-20 .. theyve competed at a very high level dealing with a lot of losses to teams like NDSU, SDSU, JMU, other Top 8 seeds, and other Big Sky teams. They did make 2 Nattys, losing to NDSU both times. So the SOS associated with their 21-20 record is extremely high, and they played very few autobids .. maybe one.

So I don't think any other conference is close to Big Sky since 2018, except MVFC with NDSU and SDSIU tipping the scales decidedly to MVFC. Not Colonial or Southern or Southland is even close to that 5 year performance, especially considering their SOS.
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d6C7vHmRf9k/WftCmoTosWI/AAAAAAAALyg/00mDNQOw-b41-Lxyk47Sl0uOjhUAU6T6wCLcBGAs/s1600/correlation%2Bcausation%2Banecdotes%2B-%2B700w.png

[atthewbon]

Many of us are familiar with “jury nullification.” This is when the jury decides to ignore the evidence and returns a verdict based on the feelings they held before being presented with and reviewing the evidence. Often, in these cases, during deliberations, jury members will work very hard to ‘torture’ the evidence, twisting and turning it until, if they don’t look closely and squint their eyes just right, they can convince themselves that the evidence actually does support the feelings they had before they were presented with and ‘tortured’ the evidence.

Above is an example of “thread nullification.”

In this thread…

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?335772-Massey-2023-Pre-Season-Projections-W-L-Playoff-Teams-AQ-amp-At-Large&referrerid=40958

…FUBeAR used all data from the 24 Teams / 8 Seeds Playoffs era (all 9 seasons of this structure). No matter how the data was sliced and diced, the same inference emerged:

Based upon performance in the Playoffs, the Big Sky Conference has been vastly over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded by the Playoff Committee.

Feel free to review the data there and you will also find atthewbon there twisting, turning, and squinting. The BS-MVS is strong in that one!

The last time a current SOCON team made the semi finals was 2005… I get your whole if you exclude all of the second round games (where SOCON teams always lose) they have a better record than the Big Sky shtick but come on you can’t pretend the SOCON has had better playoff success than the Big Sky…

Regardless, because of the depth of the conference (and lack thereof in others) I don’t think the SOCON is that far behind any conference not named the MVFC but the SOCON has not had close to the playoff success that the Big Sky has (and yes the Big Sky has underperformed).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

Many of us are familiar with “jury nullification.” This is when the jury decides to ignore the evidence and returns a verdict based on the feelings they held before being presented with and reviewing the evidence. Often, in these cases, during deliberations, jury members will work very hard to ‘torture’ the evidence, twisting and turning it until, if they don’t look closely and squint their eyes just right, they can convince themselves that the evidence actually does support the feelings they had before they were presented with and ‘tortured’ the evidence.

Above is an example of “thread nullification.”

In this thread…

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?335772-Massey-2023-Pre-Season-Projections-W-L-Playoff-Teams-AQ-amp-At-Large&referrerid=40958

…FUBeAR used all data from the 24 Teams / 8 Seeds Playoffs era (all 9 seasons of this structure). No matter how the data was sliced and diced, the same inference emerged:

Based upon performance in the Playoffs, the Big Sky Conference has been vastly over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded by the Playoff Committee.

Feel free to review the data there and you will also find atthewbon there twisting, turning, and squinting. The BS-MVS is strong in that one!

Actually that is a completely incorrect description of jury nullification, but we can talk about it somewhere other than in this forum.

[atthewbon]

If you only look at the top teams in each conf, and in the past, not today, then ok. But if you look top to bottom in each conf then CAA has obviously slipped, mainly due to it being even more diluted and the SOCON is a bit better now. But depends on how you slice it obviously. Anyone can pick what works as a "best look" for their conf. Like just looking at the top teams, or playoff record, or whatever. But if you look at each and every team.... But it is still close. The BS is close as well. And the MVFC doesn't have as big a gap as they had previously. But it is all academic at this point.

I agree the CAA has slipped bc of the loss of JMU and some of it’s new additions have big question marks (that’s why I dropped them in my ranking) but the SOCON isn’t without its bad teams either…
I don’t think there is a huge difference is the “ranking” of these conferences. The CAA with its recent changes seems like a more bloated version of the SOCON. But the SOCON has to do something in the postseason to bump them up in my mind.

The depth of the MVFC was down last year but when no one still in the FCS has won a championship from outside the conference since 2010 I think it’s fair to keep them at the top.

While NDSU has obviously dominated it hasn’t been just them. If you look at appearances in the championship game of current FCS teams since NDSU’s run…

NDSU: 10
MVFC (excluding NDSU): 4
Big Sky: 2
CAA: 1

While the gap is closing with the likes of the Big Sky and SOCON, the MVFC’s greatest challenge in the CAA has taken a step back. IMO the gap is still pretty large, at least compared to the gaps between other conferences.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[stonemd]

#2 Sac St lost by 3 to #7 IW, who then lost to #2 NDSU by just 3 as well. So Sac St proved they belonged in round of 8 ... the other 3 round of 8 losers lost by 21, 48, and 18, putting Sac St at a very solid 5th, a long with Mont St 3rd or 4th. So they had 2 in the top 5 this season.



Furman lost to IW by 3 in the playoffs so I guess they belonged in the round of 8 and were a solid 5th too? maybe Furman deserved a seed?

[FUBeAR]

Actually that is a completely incorrect description of jury nullification, but we can talk about it somewhere other than in this forum.
It is NOT a “completely incorrect description of jury nullification.” It is not the strictest definition of “jury nullification” which requires that the jury knows, absolutely, that the defendant is guilty, but, in most cases, disagrees with the applicable law - think Libertarian jurors on Drug Possession trials or Death Penalty opponents on Capital cases. In this analogy, it would most closely mean that atthewbon KNOWS the Big Sky has underperformed other conferences, not to include the MVFC, in the Playoffs, but chooses to assert that the Big Sky has performed equally or better than other conferences because he believes that other it would be ‘wrong’ for other Conferences to be competitive with the Big Sky Conference.

As that analogy is difficult to grasp and doesn’t track as well as FUBeAR would like, instead of emulating a supercilious bellhop, FUBeAR opted to include a less rigid definition of “Jury Nullification.” Some have termed it ‘gentler’ “Jury Nullification” as the juror may or may not object to the righteousness of the law itself, but so strongly identifies with the Defendant, they ‘nullify’ the evidence vs. nullifying the law (Think the OJ Trial) - which is what FUBeAR is almost certain CID is referencing.

Bottom Line: it don’t matter. Big Sky has been over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded by the Playoff Committee either way.

[caribbeanhen]

Despite Flouzys attempts to enlighten AGS on the Southern conference, in the end the games will tell us the story. Have to admit Furman was good last year. I knew they were beating Elon but didn’t know they would dominate them. Furman at IW was a great playoff game and The Word narrowly escaped with a win at home over Furman in a crazy game. Look how good Incarnate Word was in Fargo… not sure better team won that game. If the Bison had to travel down Texas way, they probably get beat.

Last year my money would be on Furman over any Big Sky team except Montana State

my point, FuBeaR has a point …. Just watch the games! It’s much more fun than listening to FuBeaR

[Professor Chaos]

Regarding Big Sky, I don't get the notion they are over-rated at all. They aren't just ranked high these 4 season, they do well in playoffs. Typically, if your getting too many bids, your aggregate playoff record will be under .500.

As for Big Sky the last 5 years:

2018 .. 4 bids went 6-4 in playoffs with all 4 losses to top 8 seeds, 2 being to NDSU. all 4 made round of 16, 3 made round of 8, 1 made round of 4, 1 made championship .. final 4 had NDSU, SDSU, EWU, Maine .. though EWU beat Maine 50-19 in semis. Pretty impressive showing.

2019 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs with 3 losses to top 8 seeds, 2 being NDSU and JMU. 4 of 5 made round of 16, 3 made round of 8, 2 made final 4. It was NDSU vs JMU in Natty. Another impressive showing. MVFC also had 3 in round of 8, leaving just 1 other team not Big Sky or MVFC or JMU.

2020 .. goofy pandemic season, not relevant

2021 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs with 2 losses to SDSU (final 4 team) and 3 to top 8 seeds (NDSU, JMU, Mont St) ... all 5 losses were to teams who made final 4. So 4 made round of 16, 2 made round of 8, 1 made final 4 and final.

2022 .. 5 bids went 5-5 in playoffs, but 2 losses were against Big Sky, and remaining 3 were against top 8 seeds. So 4 made round of 16, just 2 made round of 8 (w/ losses to Big Sky and NDSU), and 1 made final 4. In round of 8, #2 Sac St lost by 3 to #7 IW, who then lost to #2 NDSU by just 3 as well. So Sac St proved they belonged in round of 8 ... the other 3 round of 8 losers lost by 21, 48, and 18, putting Sac St at a very solid 5th, a long with Mont St 3rd or 4th. So they had 2 in the top 5 this season.

So while they havent won a Natty, or outperformed their regular season rankings. They have competed at a very high level dealing with a lot of losses to teams like NDSU, SDSU, JMU, other Top 8 seeds, and other Big Sky teams. They did make 2 Nattys, losing to NDSU both times. So the SOS associated with their 21-20 record is extremely high, and they played very few autobids .. maybe one.

Of the 32 round of 8 participants since 2018 (ex 2020), Big Sky has had 10 of 32, MVFC has 9 of 32, CAA has just 5.

So I don't think any other conference is close to Big Sky since 2018, except MVFC with NDSU and SDSU tipping the scales decidedly to MVFC. Not Colonial or Southern or Southland is even close to that 5 year performance, especially considering their SOS.
The point you're missing is that the Big Sky has had a boatload of seeds in that timeframe meaning a lot of home games. Just doing a quick look back at the last 4 playoffs (back to 2018 excluding spring 2021) the Big Sky has had 4 home playoffs losses (Sac St accounting for 3 of them) while the CAA/MVC/SOCON combined for 5 home playoffs losses. Likewise the Big Sky did not have a single playoff road victory in those playoffs - although to be fair neither did the SOCON and the CAA only had 1 (the MVFC had 6).

[FUBeAR]

watch the game…more fun than listening to FuBeaR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5dMqHqC4pM

[atthewbon]

It is NOT a “completely incorrect description of jury nullification.” It is not the strictest definition of “jury nullification” which requires that the jury knows, absolutely, that the defendant is guilty, but, in most cases, disagrees with the applicable law - think Libertarian jurors on Drug Possession trials or Death Penalty opponents on Capital cases. In this analogy, it would most closely mean that atthewbon KNOWS the Big Sky has underperformed other conferences, not to include the MVFC, in the Playoffs, but chooses to assert that the Big Sky has performed equally or better than other conferences because he believes that other it would be ‘wrong’ for other Conferences to be competitive with the Big Sky Conference.

As that analogy is difficult to grasp and doesn’t track as well as FUBeAR would like, instead of emulating a supercilious bellhop, FUBeAR opted to include a less rigid definition of “Jury Nullification.” Some have termed it ‘gentler’ “Jury Nullification” as the juror may or may not object to the righteousness of the law itself, but so strongly identifies with the Defendant, they ‘nullify’ the evidence vs. nullifying the law (Think the OJ Trial) - which is what FUBeAR is almost certain CID is referencing.

Bottom Line: it don’t matter. Big Sky has been over-selected, over-seeded, and over-highly-seeded by the Playoff Committee either way.

Atthewbon knows the Big Sky has underperformed in the playoffs. But Atthewbon also knows the SOCON and pretty much every other FCS conference has as well because of how dominant the MVFC has been. So when ranking conferences Atthewbon takes this into account and just because the Big Sky underperforms worse in whatever way FUBeAR disqualifies certain games doesn’t mean the Big Sky is a worse conference.

Simply, the Big Sky has had significantly more teams go significantly further in the playoffs than the SOCON. While still underperforming, the Big Sky is performing better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUBeAR]

Atthewbon knows the Big Sky has underperformed in the playoffs. But Atthewbon also knows the SOCON and pretty much every other FCS conference has as well because of how dominant the MVFC has been. So when ranking conferences Atthewbon takes this into account and just because the Big Sky underperforms worse in whatever way FUBeAR disqualifies certain games doesn’t mean the Big Sky is a worse conference.

Simply, the Big Sky has had significantly more teams go significantly further in the playoffs than the SOCON. While still underperforming, the Big Sky is performing better.Your subjective opinion has been well-noted.

[Preferred Walk-On]

While NDSU has obviously dominated it hasn’t been just them. If you look at appearances in the championship game of current FCS teams since NDSU’s run…

NDSU: 10
MVFC (excluding NDSU): 4
Big Sky: 2
CAA: 1

While the gap is closing with the likes of the Big Sky and SOCON, the MVFC’s greatest challenge in the CAA has taken a step back. IMO the gap is still pretty large, at least compared to the gaps between other conferences.

I think the argument, as I understand it from the discussion of seeding in other threads, is that the results you posted above are a product of exclusion and inequity in including teams from outside the MVFC, Big Sky, and the CAA as seeds.

FUBeAR is one of the leaders on this forum in the diversity, equity, and inclusion movement for FCS Playoff selection, and the argument is that if more SoCon, Southland, Patriot, Pioneer, NEC, UAC, and Big South/OVC teams were seeded, then the results you posted would look much different.

Essentially, one argument is that the success you listed above is more a product of favorable FCS Playoff treatment (seed=home game(s)) than it is of those teams simply being the better teams.

Unfortunately, there is really no way to ascertain this without actually testing it out in the playoffs (i.e., completely random pairing with completely random/neutral location for all games). But one does have a point that if conference strength is skewed (right or wrong) from the get-go, it becomes less likely for “the field” so-to-speak to be seeded, and thus perpetuates the perceived inequity and exclusion.

Just an aside, I DO believe that most of the teams that have been seeded in the past were seeded because they WERE the best teams (and not simply a product of their conference affiliation and perceived conference rank), but obviously, there will always be an exception here or there. I guess I am part of the problem, but luckily, I have no say whatsoever on Selection Sunday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUBeAR]

I think the argument, as I understand it from the discussion of seeding in other threads, is that the results you posted above are a product of exclusion and inequity in including teams from outside the MVFC, Big Sky, and the CAA as seeds.

FUBeAR is one of the leaders on this forum in the diversity, equity, and inclusion movement for FCS Playoff selection, and the argument is that if more SoCon, Southland, Patriot, Pioneer, NEC, UAC, and Big South/OVC teams were seeded, then the results you posted would look much different.

Essentially, one argument is that the success you listed above is more a product of favorable FCS Playoff treatment (seed=home game(s)) than it is of those teams simply being the better teams.

Unfortunately, there is really no way to ascertain this without actually testing it out in the playoffs (i.e., completely random pairing with completely random/neutral location for all games). But one does have a point that if conference strength is skewed (right or wrong) from the get-go, it becomes less likely for “the field” so-to-speak to be seeded, and thus perpetuates the perceived inequity and exclusion.

Just an aside, I DO believe that most of the teams that have been seeded in the past were seeded because they WERE the best teams (and not simply a product of their conference affiliation and perceived conference rank), but obviously, there will always be an exception here or there. I guess I am part of the problem, but luckily, I have no say whatsoever on Selection Sunday.
That whooshing sound you just heard was FUBeAR typing and printing as he added his newly acknowledged DEI chops to his resume. Raises and Job Security outlook much improved!

You get it - that’s clear.

A couple of minor quibbles.

FUBeAR doesn’t ‘have an argument’ regarding the effects of what he has come to see as the Triple-Stacked Deck of the current Playoff structure and how that structure, in concert with the activities of polls, pundits, prognosticators, and Playoff Committee Members manifests a self-fulfilling tendency to support the status quo - systemic Teamism, perhaps.

No - not an argument - FUBeAR has a hypothesis that this exists. Using 9 years of Playoff data, and conducting extensive analysis of this data, he feels there is a strong likelihood that his hypothesis is more likely than not to be True. It was a hypothesis. Thinking now it has risen to the level of a theory, but as PrefWO correctly points out, it cannot be empirically proven.

This theory has led FUBeAR to conclude that a 32 Team / FULLY Regionalized structure with no byes, and a unique “Final Four” format would be the best solution for the FCS Playoffs. He understands fully that is a VERY unpopular opinion. FUBeAR was voted “Most Popular” in HS - been there, done that - don’t need it here - FUBeAR don’t care!

Understanding the FUBeAR plan has little chance of being enacted soon, he will just continue to interact with Poll Voters, Pundits, Prognosticators, Pundits, and, where possible, Playoff Committee Members to influence them to do better, to be better to not be lazy and just accept the broadly accepted narrative. He will
encourage them to carefully examine if they are fairly considering traditional marginalized Teams and Conferences. He will call out injustices, errors, omissions, and even malfeasance when he sees it. All while having a heckuva lotta fun!

Thanks for objectively considering alternative ideas, Pref.WO - FUBeAR will consider you an ally…whether you like it or not!

Final Quibble - FUBeAR thinks if you are an AGS Poll Voter, you do, in fact, have a say on Selection Sunday. In an interview with Sam Herder last November, IFBO, the Chairman of the Playoff Selection Committee made it abundantly clear that Committee Members are free to consider whatever information they would like to consider and weight that information however they would like. They are aware of the AGS Poll - they read this board. Your vote COUNTS. Your Pre-Season Poll counts because, IFBO, ALL FCS Voters are way too slow to move Teams up and down as the season progresses. Systemic Teamism rears its ugly head in this residual sluggishness. Anyway - YOU, via your ‘work’ here ARE in that room on Selection Sunday. That is a great honor and privilege, but it is also a responsibility that should not be shouldered flippantly. FUBeAR is certain that you shoulder your objectivity burden well. Does everyone here?

[caribbeanhen]

That whooshing sound you just heard was FUBeAR typing and printing as he added his newly acknowledged DEI chops to his resume. Raises and Job Security outlook much improved!

You get it - that’s clear.

A couple of minor quibbles.

FUBeAR doesn’t ‘have an argument’ regarding the effects of what he has come to see as the Triple-Stacked Deck of the current Playoff structure and how that structure, in concert with the activities of polls, pundits, prognosticators, and Playoff Committee Members manifests a self-fulfilling tendency to support the status quo - systemic Teamism, perhaps.

No - not an argument - FUBeAR has a hypothesis that this exists. Using 9 years of Playoff data, and conducting extensive analysis of this data, he feels there is a strong likelihood that his hypothesis is more likely than not to be True. It was a hypothesis. Thinking now it has risen to the level of a theory, but as PrefWO correctly points out, it cannot be empirically proven.

This theory has led FUBeAR to conclude that a 32 Team / FULLY Regionalized structure with no byes, and a unique “Final Four” format would be the best solution for the FCS Playoffs. He understands fully that is a VERY unpopular opinion. FUBeAR was voted “Most Popular” in HS - been there, done that - don’t need it here - and quite frankly my Dear AGS FUBeAR don’t give a damn

Understanding the FUBeAR plan has little chance of being enacted soon, he will just continue to interact with Poll Voters, Pundits, Prognosticators, Pundits, and, where possible, Playoff Committee Members to influence them to do better, to be better to not be lazy and just accept the broadly accepted narrative. He will
encourage them to carefully examine if they are fairly considering traditional marginalized Teams and Conferences. He will call out injustices, errors, omissions, and even malfeasance when he sees it. All while having a heckuva lotta fun!

Thanks for objectively considering alternative ideas, Pref.WO - FUBeAR will consider you an ally…whether you like it or not!

Final Quibble - FUBeAR thinks if you are an AGS Poll Voter, you do, in fact, have a say on Selection Sunday. In an interview with Sam Herder last November, IFBO, the Chairman of the Playoff Selection Committee made it abundantly clear that Committee Members are free to consider whatever information they would like to consider and weight that information however they would like. They are aware of the AGS Poll - they read this board. Your vote COUNTS. Your Pre-Season Poll counts because, IFBO, ALL FCS Voters are way too slow to move Teams up and down as the season progresses. Systemic Teamism rears its ugly head in this residual sluggishness. Anyway - YOU, via your ‘work’ here ARE in that room on Selection Sunday. That is a great honor and privilege, but it is also a responsibility that should not be shouldered flippantly. FUBeAR is certain that you shoulder your objectivity burden well. Does everyone here?


Posted on January 15, 2011 (https://viviankirkfield.com/2011/01/15/rhett-butler-from-devil-may-care-scoundrel-to-doting-dad/)
https://i0.wp.com/upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/Clark_Gable_as_Rhett_Butler_in_Gone_With_the_Wind_ trailer.jpg/300px-Clark_Gable_as_Rhett_Butler_in_Gone_With_the_Wind_ trailer.jpg (http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Clark_Gable_as_Rhett_Butler_in_Gone_With_the_ Wind_trailer.jpg)Image via Wikipedia

[Gil Dobie]

The lack of literary discernment shown above says a lot more about its author than it does FUBeAR, but keep it up. You, Gil Dobie, and a few others can get together and form a great doowop group - The Crowing Rudiments.

Are backing off all the blabbering you have been giving us about how great the SoCon and Furman are, and how overrated the Big Sky and MVFC are.

[FUBeAR]

Are backing off all the blabbering you have been giving us about how great the SoCon and Furman are, and how overrated the Big Sky and MVFC are.
Really - you need to register.

https://readingeggs.com/reading-program/


It could change your life.

[crusader11]

Your Pre-Season Poll counts because, IFBO, ALL FCS Voters are way too slow to move Teams up and down as the season progresses. Systemic Teamism rears its ugly head in this residual sluggishness.

There's a lot of truth to this.

So much guesswork in preseason polls...so why should this be the foundation for where teams move up and down?

I also think there's the danger of "group think".

[ElCid]

There's a lot of truth to this.

So much guesswork in preseason polls...so why should this be the foundation for where teams move up and down?

I also think there's the danger of "group think".

Also it's hard to admit you got it wrong so it can prevent you from moving teams down when they don't deserve a higher ranking. Or vice a versa. Group think can support your reluctance to move a team by confirming your incorrect choices. Hard to tell sometimes when you actually got it right or are just following the crowd.

[caribbeanhen]

There's a lot of truth to this.

So much guesswork in preseason polls...so why should this be the foundation for where teams move up and down?

I also think there's the danger of "group think".

Lots of truth but not all voters are that way, as FuBlurb incorrectly stated

Sam Houston was immediately bumped up to #1 in my spring 2021 poll after game 1. AGS had them at 17 I think. No stats, no announcers, just eyes.

I’m wrong a lot too and try to atone for it quickly and swiftly

[FUBeAR]

Lots of truth but not all voters are that way, as FuBlurb incorrectly stated

Sam Houston was immediately bumped up to #1 in my spring 2021 poll after game 1. AGS had them at 17 I think. No stats, no announcers, just eyes.

I’m wrong a lot too and try to atone for it quickly and swiftlyYour CHen FBS doppelgänger would have submitted his poll before SHSU’s 2021 game was over, so FUBeAR did not state it incorrectly. Relative to FBS Voters, ALL FCS Voters are way too slow to move Teams up or down as the season progresses.

[caribbeanhen]

Your CHen FBS doppelgänger would have submitted his poll before SHSU’s 2021 game was over, so FUBeAR did not state it incorrectly. Relative to FBS Voters, ALL FCS Voters are way too slow to move Teams up or down as the season progresses.

Hey Rhett, nobody is submitting polls before games are over and Sammy was not FBS in the winter months of 2021 so you can take that post north

[FUBeAR]

Hey Rhett, nobody is submitting polls before games are over and Sammy was not FBS in the winter months of 2021 so you can take that post north
Heard a returning Starter for a highly-ranked FCS Team has had his NCAA Waiver Request denied and he will not be returning after all. FUBeAR has already accounted for that move and dropped that Team 6 spots in his rankings.

Have you reacted to that yet?

Didn't think so - see....you're TOO SLOW!!!!

[caribbeanhen]

Heard a returning Starter for a highly-ranked FCS Team has had his NCAA Waiver Request denied and he will not be returning after all. FUBeAR has already accounted for that move and dropped that Team 6 spots in his rankings.

Have you reacted to that yet?

Didn't think so - see....you're TOO SLOW!!!!


What rankings? According to you Ashley, you don’t vote in AGS poll

[FUBeAR]

What rankings? According to you Ashley, you don’t vote in AGS pollThe FUBeAR Poll is only available to a select following of successful 'investors.'

Are you interested in a subscription?

[caribbeanhen]

The FUBeAR Poll is only available to a select following of successful 'investors.'

Are you interested in a subscription?

No, but Pepper Rodgers was once in my Grandmother’s house and nobody that lived there was a football player

[FUBeAR]

No, but Pepper Rodgers was once in my Grandmother’s house and nobody that lived there was a football playerCoach Pepper was widely known in the GILF Community

[caribbeanhen]

Coach Pepper was widely known in the GILF Community

Brown HS
class of 1949

[SDFS]

Coach Pepper was widely known in the GILF Community

OK, what is a G%LF Community?

[FUBeAR]

OK, what is a G%LF Community?
GIYF

[caribbeanhen]

GIYF

Girls in your fantasies?

[FUBeAR]

Girls in your fantasies?
Google Is Your Friend

[caribbeanhen]

Google Is Your Friend


more like my stalker

[Gil Dobie]

Really - you need to register.

https://readingeggs.com/reading-program/


It could change your life.

Think I'll take Caribbeanhens advice and not listen to FUBear and his BS.

[FUBeAR]

Think I'll take Caribbeanhens advice and not listen to FUBear and his BS.
LOL - CHen is a Platinum Level subscriber to “Exclusive FUBeAR Compleat.” He just doesn’t want others to receive the same advantages provided via this level of access to insight.

[Redbird 4th & short]

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d6C7vHmRf9k/WftCmoTosWI/AAAAAAAALyg/00mDNQOw-b41-Lxyk47Sl0uOjhUAU6T6wCLcBGAs/s1600/correlation%2Bcausation%2Banecdotes%2B-%2B700w.png
Not sure how that would apply here ... The various rankings during the season supported the Big Sky bids and seeds. And their non-conf schedules are usually very tough of late, and they compete very well in nonconf games - many against good FBS and good MVFC teams. That is why I have been watching them closer and noticing their rise. I used to agree they were over-rated and getting too many bids - but not any more. Then the FCS Selection committee agreed they earned these bids and seeds similar to the various rankings. Then their playoff performance supported that they earned these bids and seeds .. 21-20 against a very tough SOS.

But because they ran into NDSU, SDSU JMU or a fellow Big Sky team ... yes, they only went 21-20. But that is a very high SOS they are facing, and still went .500 .. to me, this proves they got what they deserved. Bottom line, no other conference can claim they come even close to this performance since 2018.

Yet your argument is that Southern would have similar results as Big Sky, if only they got the same # bids, largely because you say so .. nothing else. This despite variety of rankings and FCS selection committee and playoff results indicating you're also getting what you deserve and not over-performing by any means to suggest you should be getting more bids.

Noting a better example of clearly over-performing in playoffs ... the MVFC, excl NDSU, has a win rate around .650 in the playoffs since 2010 against non-MVFC teams This while rarely getting weak auto-bids from east coast to pad that .650 win rate like Colonial does .. and again excl NDSU who has about a .950 win rate. Overall, MVFC win rate is around .850, excl MVFC head to head.

Now that is a very strong case suggesting MVFC .. believe it or not ... should have been getting more at large bids since 2010. And many here have argued, the games are played on the field .. not on computers or message boards. Yet brush off suggestions MVFC doesn't get enough bids. While Colonial gets same amount of love as MVFC, with a win rate around .500, while drawing more weak autobids at home than any other conf to help pad that record up to .500. I know that will piss people off, but it is verifiably true since 2010.

Similar argument for the BIg Sky since 2018, though not as dominant. But theyve earned everything theyve gotten since 2018 ... their record on the field proves this. I have zero skin in the Big Sky game ... but have just objectively begun to notice their rise since we started playing them more in nonconf.

edit: last "anecdote" ... from 2011-15 or so. MoST and USD used to go 0-8 or 1-7 or 2-6 in MVFC, and would still beat or complete with good (8-0 or 7-1 or 6-2) Big Sky playoff teams. Since 2016 or so, now those same "good" Big Sky teams are playing NDSU, SDSU, and UNI, and doing very well. This is NOT anecdotal ... it is actual games played on the field against our best teams in nonconf games.

[FUBeAR]

Not sure how that would apply here ... The various rankings during the season supported the Big Sky bids and seeds. And their non-conf schedules are usually very tough of late, and they compete very well in nonconf games - many against good FBS and good MVFC teams. That is why I have been watching them closer and noticing their rise. I used to agree they were over-rated and getting too many bids - but not any more. Then the FCS Selection committee agreed they earned these bids and seeds similar to the various rankings. Then their playoff performance supported that they earned these bids and seeds .. 21-20 against a very tough SOS.

But because they ran into NDSU, SDSU JMU or a fellow Big Sky team ... yes, they only went 21-20. But that is a very high SOS they are facing, and still went .500 .. to me, this proves they got what they deserved. Bottom line, no other conference can claim they come even close to this performance since 2018.

Yet your argument is that Southern would have similar results as Big Sky, if only they got the same # bids, largely because you say so .. nothing else. This despite variety of rankings and FCS selection committee and playoff results indicating you're also getting what you deserve and not over-performing by any means to suggest you should be getting more bids.

Noting a better example of clearly over-performing in playoffs ... the MVFC, excl NDSU, has a win rate around .650 in the playoffs since 2010 against non-MVFC teams This while rarely getting weak auto-bids from east coast to pad that .650 win rate like Colonial does .. and again excl NDSU who has about a .950 win rate. Overall, MVFC win rate is around .850, excl MVFC head to head.

Now that is a very strong case suggesting MVFC .. believe it or not ... should have been getting more at large bids since 2010. And many here have argued, the games are played on the field .. not on computers or message boards. Yet brush off suggestions MVFC doesn't get enough bids. While Colonial gets same amount of love as MVFC, with a win rate around .500, while drawing more weak autobids at home than any other conf to help pad that record up to .500. I know that will piss people off, but it is verifiably true since 2010.

Similar argument for the BIg Sky since 2018, though not as dominant. But theyve earned everything theyve gotten since 2018 ... their record on the field proves this. I have zero skin in the Big Sky game ... but have just objectively begun to notice their rise since we started playing them more in nonconf.
Your assessments regarding the MVFC and the CAA (if FUBeAR is correctly understanding your commentary) are correct.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Your assessment regarding the MVFC is correct.
see my edit ...

edit: last "anecdote" ... from 2011-15 or so. MoST and USD used to go 0-8 or 1-7 or 2-6 in MVFC, and would still beat or complete with good (8-0 or 7-1 or 6-2) Big Sky playoff teams. Since 2016 or so, now those same "good" Big Sky teams are playing NDSU, SDSU, and UNI, and doing very well. This is NOT anecdotal ... it is actual games played on the field against our best teams in nonconf games.

[FUBeAR]

see my edit ...

edit: last "anecdote" ... from 2011-15 or so. MoST and USD used to go 0-8 or 1-7 or 2-6 in MVFC, and would still beat or complete with good (8-0 or 7-1 or 6-2) Big Sky playoff teams. Since 2016 or so, now those same "good" Big Sky teams are playing NDSU, SDSU, and UNI, and doing very well. This is NOT anecdotal ... it is actual games played on the field against our best teams in nonconf games.
Yes, as anecdotes go, that certainly is one…relatively speaking.

[SU DOG]

Heard a returning Starter for a highly-ranked FCS Team has had his NCAA Waiver Request denied and he will not be returning after all. FUBeAR has already accounted for that move and dropped that Team 6 spots in his rankings.

Have you reacted to that yet?


Didn't think so - see....you're TOO SLOW!!!!

I assume that you are referring to the Samford DB, but don't know for sure. That is a big loss for our team I will admit, BUT NOT enough to cause a 6 spot drop. As Hatcher has stated, the Dogs have a very fast and athletic secondary that I think will be better than last year's.

[FUBeAR]

I assume that you are referring to the Samford DB, but don't know for sure. That is a big loss for our team I will admit, BUT NOT enough to cause a 6 spot drop. As Hatcher has stated, the Dogs have a very fast and athletic secondary that I think will be better than last year's.
It’s not always about YOU, SU DOG… jeez …

[SU DOG]

That's why I said "but don't know for sure," even though it sure fit the case.

[FUBeAR]

That's why I said "but don't know for sure," even though it sure fit the case.
So hard for you 1st person guys not to be narcissists, isn’t it?

[Professor Chaos]

There's a lot of truth to this.

So much guesswork in preseason polls...so why should this be the foundation for where teams move up and down?

I also think there's the danger of "group think".
It's up to the voters to understand that there should be no hard rules for how far up or down you move a team in a given week. Slot voting is the term many use for it and we give the STATS and Coach's polls crap for it all the time since they hold more to the theory that teams only move up if teams ahead of them the week before lose or only move down if they lose and never seem to drop more than a few spots if they do lose.

I think anyone who's put a poll ballot together for long enough knows that sometimes you have to say "**** it... I'm starting over" at least in the context of a particular team at a particular point in the season if they're not performing to expectations but sometimes you have to do that with your whole ballot. The alternative I've heard thrown around is to start the poll in week 6 or at some point midseason but I think that would just make it more of a mess at that point. Getting through the exercise of rankings teams in the preseason and then again after week 1 and then again after week 2 and so on just makes the output that much better in week 6 than had we waited until then to start.

It also leads to plenty of message board fodder in the early season which, let's be honest, is what we're all here for. It's why I'd encourage every voter to post their poll ballot each week - those of us that do might argue if we're challenged on a particular team but, at least for me, I take the feedback into consideration the next week and thereafter and those who are critical of our ballots play a role in making the midseason and late season poll outputs better as well.

[TribeGuy]

1. MVFC
2. Big Sky
gap
3. CAA
4. SoCon
5. Southland
gap
Everyone else

My reasoning: Gridiron Performance.

I'll need a different thread to bloviate about all my other ideas of the FCS/ College Sports.

The CAA is going down in national respect, not unlike the expanded Big Sky years ago, which faced criticism. To a lesser extent, so has the MVFC, with MVFC fans complaining about MVFC scheduling (not facing top conference foes). The CAA will face the exact critique for years to come. It was a mistake. The CAA expansion was based on non-FB considerations.

The SoCon should be considered a close 3rd to the CAA. O-O-C games matter. If the SoCon steps up 2023, especially playoff victories, they'll deserve their place in the sketchy Commitee placement.

The Southland has to overcome realignment and the transfer portal era. They are not trending positively. Look at UIW. The region has ballers. It should not become the minor leagues of the SEC.

The United Athletic Conf. Huh? Some good teams...but? Realignment Blues.

An OVC/Big South conf. is a survival gambit for natty relevance. more Realignment Blues.

The Patriot League must win OOC games. Holy Cross and Fordham rock! Step up League.

NEC and Pioneer get their auto-bids. Small schools/small budgets can still compete. Love the attitude.

PLEASE,PLEASE - Join the FCS Playoffs - SWAC. While it might not make money-sense, the prestige will forge a conference benefit.

[Catbooster]

The point you're missing is that the Big Sky has had a boatload of seeds in that timeframe meaning a lot of home games. Just doing a quick look back at the last 4 playoffs (back to 2018 excluding spring 2021) the Big Sky has had 4 home playoffs losses (Sac St accounting for 3 of them) while the CAA/MVC/SOCON combined for 5 home playoffs losses. Likewise the Big Sky did not have a single playoff road victory in those playoffs - although to be fair neither did the SOCON and the CAA only had 1 (the MVFC had 6).

Not that it really changes your point, but I'm pretty sure it was on the road when we knocked off #1 SHSU their final year in FCS and the playoffs. xnodx