AGS Poll Results 2023 Wk0

[AGSPoll]

8/1/2023



Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1049
41


2
North Dakota State Bison
973
1


3
Montana State Bobcats
967



4
Furman Paladins
857



5
Holy Cross Crusaders
810



6
William & Mary Tribe
786



7
Samford Bulldogs
690



8
Incarnate Word Cardinals
686



9
Sac State Hornets
589



10
Idaho Vandals
588



11
New Hampshire Wildcats
539



12
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
520



13
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
510



14
Montana Grizzlies
490



15
Weber State Wildcats
463



16
UC Davis Aggies
421



17
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
399



18
Richmond Spiders
326



19
Mercer Bears
322



20
Northern Iowa Panthers
233



21
North Carolina Central Eagles
181



22
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
178



23
Rhode Island Rams
147



24
Chattanooga Mocs
125



25
Elon Phoenix
107
















ORV:




26
Southern Illinois Salukis
82



27
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
76



28
Fordham Rams
73



29
Youngstown State Penguins
60



30
Missouri State Bears
58



31
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
49



32
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
44



33
Jackson State Tigers
34



34
Florida A&M Rattlers
32



35
Central Arkansas Bears
30



36
Yale Bulldogs
25



37
Austin Peay Governors
22



38
Princeton Tigers
21



39
St. Francis Red Flash
20



40
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
15

[Professor Chaos]

The preseason poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-preseason-2023-top-25-results/

Some interesting tidbits (IMO):

This is Furman's highest ranking since early in the 2006 season (the last time they were higher was late 2005).
This is Holy Cross' highest ranking ever in the AGS Poll.
There's 6 Big Sky teams in the top 16 - hard to see that maintaining.

[FUBeAR]

So…AGS Playoff Field Prediction is…

MVFC (1) AQ - SDSU (1)
MVFC (2) At-Large - NDSU (2)
Big Sky (1) AQ - MontSt (3)
SoCon (1) AQ - Furman (4)
PL (1) AQ - Holy Cross (5)
CAA (1) AQ - W&M (6)
SoCon (2) At-Large - Samford (7)
Southland (1) AQ - UIW (8)

Big Sky (2) At-Large - SacSt (9)
Big Sky (3) At-Large - Idaho (10)
CAA (2) At-Large - UNH (11)
Southland (2) At-Large - SELU (12)
Big South/OVC (1) AQ - SEMO (13)
Big Sky (4) At-Large - Mont. (14)
Big Sky (5) At-Large - Weber (15)
Big Sky (6) At-Large - UCD (16)
MVFC (3) At-Large - UND (17)
CAA (3) At-Large - Richmond (18)
SoCon (3) At-Large - Mercer (19)
MVFC (4) At-Large - UNI (20)
CAA (4) At-Large - Delaware (21)
UAC (1) AQ - EKU (22)
NEC (1) AQ - SFU (23)
PFL (1) AQ - ? (24)



…6 Big Sky… xbangx

Richmond, Mercer, UNI , and Delaware last 4 IN

Rhode Island (CAA 5), Chattanooga (SoCon 4), Elon (CAA 6), and Southern Illinois (MVFC 5) last 4 out.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: Holy Cross Crusaders
4: Montana State Bobcats
5: Furman Paladins
6: Sac State Hornets
7: Incarnate Word Cardinals
8: New Hampshire Wildcats
9: Montana Grizzlies
10: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
11: Idaho Vandals
12: William & Mary Tribe
13: Mercer Bears
14: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
15: Yale Bulldogs
16: Youngstown State Penguins
17: Samford Bulldogs
18: North Carolina Central Eagles
19: Princeton Tigers
20: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
21: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
22: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Fordham Rams
25: Richmond Spiders

[crusader11]

Here's my go at it...

Much higher on Davis, North Dakota, and Youngstown than many. Not as high on Incarnate Word and Montana.

Western Carolina really isn't receiving votes? I'm so surprised about that. They won their last three games of the season, one of which likely kept Chattanooga out of the playoffs, and played Furman to a 47-40 game on the road. Kerwin Bell has this program trending upward, IMO. Desmond Reid is going to have a big year, too.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Holy Cross Crusaders
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: UC Davis Aggies
8: Samford Bulldogs
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: Idaho Vandals
12: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
13: Weber State Wildcats
14: Incarnate Word Cardinals
15: Sac State Hornets
16: Mercer Bears
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Rhode Island Rams
20: Montana Grizzlies
21: North Carolina Central Eagles
22: Youngstown State Penguins
23: Princeton Tigers
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

[FUBeAR]

Here's my go at it...

Much higher on Davis, North Dakota, and Youngstown than many. Not as high on Incarnate Word and Montana.

Western Carolina really isn't receiving votes? I'm so surprised about that. They won their last three games of the season, one of which likely kept Chattanooga out of the playoffs, and played Furman to a 47-40 game on the road. Kerwin Bell has this program trending upward, IMO. Desmond Reid is going to have a big year, too.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Holy Cross Crusaders
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: UC Davis Aggies
8: Samford Bulldogs
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: Idaho Vandals
12: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
13: Weber State Wildcats
14: Incarnate Word Cardinals
15: Sac State Hornets
16: Mercer Bears
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Rhode Island Rams
20: Montana Grizzlies
21: North Carolina Central Eagles
22: Youngstown State Penguins
23: Princeton Tigers
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Don’t disagree with you that WCU should be ranked or certainly receiving votes.

But the Furman game score is a little misleading. Furman had a 4 score lead with 12 minutes to play - went into Ice / Prevent too soon & too deep vs. a Team that can put up points quickly. Live and learn.

[clenz]

UNI - over ranked as always.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's my go at it...

Much higher on Davis, North Dakota, and Youngstown than many. Not as high on Incarnate Word and Montana.

Western Carolina really isn't receiving votes? I'm so surprised about that. They won their last three games of the season, one of which likely kept Chattanooga out of the playoffs, and played Furman to a 47-40 game on the road. Kerwin Bell has this program trending upward, IMO. Desmond Reid is going to have a big year, too.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Holy Cross Crusaders
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: UC Davis Aggies
8: Samford Bulldogs
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: Idaho Vandals
12: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
13: Weber State Wildcats
14: Incarnate Word Cardinals
15: Sac State Hornets
16: Mercer Bears
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Rhode Island Rams
20: Montana Grizzlies
21: North Carolina Central Eagles
22: Youngstown State Penguins
23: Princeton Tigers
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Good point on Western Carolina but I'd say you should look into Northern Iowa as well. I'd assume the reason you have Holy Cross at #2 is because they played SDSU tough in the playoffs. Well SDSU is the only team UNI lost to after week 6 last year (won 4 of their last 5) and that was on a last second FG in a game that should've gone to OT if not for a dumb UNI penalty on a missed FG that set up the game winner.

[Professor Chaos]

My preseason metaphorical dart throws (#8 and on were really a dart throw):

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: Samford Bulldogs
8: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
9: Idaho Vandals
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Richmond Spiders
13: Sac State Hornets
14: Delaware Fightin Blue Hens
15: Incarnate Word Cardinals
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: Elon Phoenix
18: Northern Iowa Panthers
19: Montana Grizzlies
20: Mercer Bears
21: Weber State Wildcats
22: Youngstown State Penguins
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
25: North Carolina Central Eagles

[crusader11]

Don’t disagree with you that WCU should be ranked or certainly receiving votes.

But the Furman game score is a little misleading. Furman had a 4 score lead with 12 minutes to play - went into Ice / Prevent too soon & too deep vs. a Team that can put up points quickly. Live and learn.

I'm just box score scanning, but WCU did out-gain Furman by 200 yards and had five more first downs than them. It was also a 27-20 game at half. Feels like a very competitive game.


Good point on Western Carolina but I'd say you should look into Northern Iowa as well. I'd assume the reason you have Holy Cross at #2 is because they played SDSU tough in the playoffs. Well SDSU is the only team UNI lost to after week 6 last year (won 4 of their last 5) and that was on a last second FG in a game that should've gone to OT if not for a dumb UNI penalty on a missed FG that set up the game winner.

Yes, at the end of last season I really thought HC was the second best team in the country...IMO, they will only be better this season as they return many pieces from the 2022 team.

UNI is definitely a team I considered. Honestly, could put teams 18-32 in a blender and wherever they came out, you wouldn't be wrong to rank them that way.

[The Cats]

Don’t disagree with you that WCU should be ranked or certainly receiving votes.

But the Furman game score is a little misleading. Furman had a 4 score lead with 12 minutes to play - went into Ice / Prevent too soon & too deep vs. a Team that can put up points quickly. Live and learn.

I'm not sure, but does that change the final score? Maybe it was actually 47-33 or 47-26?

Oh wait, it was 47-40 after all... (I'm glad points scored in the 4th quarter still count in the final score!)



4TH QUARTER


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/site/site.png?width=30
12:42 - WCU - TJ Jones 9 yd run (R. McCollum kick), 8 plays, 68 yards, TOP 3:04
27
44


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/site/site.png?width=30
07:54 - WCU - Censere Lee 42 yd pass from Gonzales,Cole (R. McCollum kick) 2 plays, 56 yards, TOP 0:31
34
44


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/site/site.png?width=30
02:18 - WCU - Censere Lee 69 yd pass from Gonzales,Cole (R. McCollum kick blocked) 1 plays, 69 yards, TOP 0:08
40
44


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/Furman.png?width=30
01:07 - FUR - Williams,Ian 37 yd field goal 4 plays, 5 yards, TOP 1:06
40
47

[FUBeAR]

I'm not sure, but does that change the final score?
FUBeAR is sure that it does not change the fact that WCU went home with a big fat L…again.

[FUBeAR]

I'm just box score scanning, but WCU did out-gain Furman by 200 yards and had five more first downs than them. It was also a 27-20 game at half. Feels like a very competitive game.
Almost all SoCon games are extremely competitive. That’s why it’s a travesty for a Team like 2022 Mercer, that was LITERALLY 6” away from defeating a Samford Team that had a legitimate argument to be the #1 Seed, to be excluded from the Playoffs, and for the years when it was criminal for the SoCon to have only 2…or even 1 Team in the Playoffs.

That said - FUBeAR attended the game and was on the sidelines. Furman had a 7 point lead in Q1, a 17 point lead in Q2, and a 24 point lead in Q3. Furman was clearly the better Team AND WCU did an excellent job of ‘hanging around’ - which is what an inferior Team needs to do, to give themselves a chance. The spunky Catamounts did just that and kept Furman from salting it away and giving the backups as much work as they would have liked. It was a fun SoCon game.

[The Cats]

FUBeAR is sure that it does not change the fact that WCU went home with a big fat L…again.

I'll agree, it was a loss. But, not a "big, fat L" You just wish it had been a big fat L, see you in Cullowhee, on Oct. 21.

[FUBeAR]

I'll agree, it was a loss. But, not a "big, fat L" You just wish it had been a big fat L.
Looks 👀 like a pretty big and fat L to FUBeAR.
This is copied from the WCU Football website…


Oct 15 (Sat) 2:00 pm
* Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
L

[atthewbon]

Here is my ballot. I was higher on North Dakota lower on New Hampshire (really surprised me). And essentially flipped Mercer and Chattanooga vs the AGS poll.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Samford Bulldogs
8: William & Mary Tribe
9: Sac State Hornets
10: Idaho Vandals
11: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
12: Weber State Wildcats
13: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
14: Montana Grizzlies
15: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
16: New Hampshire Wildcats
17: North Carolina Central Eagles
18: UC Davis Aggies
19: Chattanooga Mocs
20: Northern Iowa Panthers
21: Richmond Spiders
22: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
23: Youngstown State Penguins
24: Mercer Bears
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MSUBobcat]

Don’t disagree with you that WCU should be ranked or certainly receiving votes.

But the Furman game score is a little misleading. Furman had a 4 score lead with 12 minutes to play - went into Ice / Prevent too soon & too deep vs. a Team that can put up points quickly. Live and learn.


I'm not sure, but does that change the final score? Maybe it was actually 47-33 or 47-26?

Oh wait, it was 47-40 after all... (I'm glad points scored in the 4th quarter still count in the final score!)



4TH QUARTER


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/site/site.png?width=30
12:42 - WCU - TJ Jones 9 yd run (R. McCollum kick), 8 plays, 68 yards, TOP 3:04
27
44


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/site/site.png?width=30
07:54 - WCU - Censere Lee 42 yd pass from Gonzales,Cole (R. McCollum kick) 2 plays, 56 yards, TOP 0:31
34
44


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/site/site.png?width=30
02:18 - WCU - Censere Lee 69 yd pass from Gonzales,Cole (R. McCollum kick blocked) 1 plays, 69 yards, TOP 0:08
40
44


https://catamountsports.com/images/logos/Furman.png?width=30
01:07 - FUR - Williams,Ian 37 yd field goal 4 plays, 5 yards, TOP 1:06
40
47




Correct me if I'm wrong (and admittedly I didn't watch the game and I'm taking this box score from a potentially biased witness as fact), but isn't the Prevent defense designed to let the opponent dink and dunk down the field in exchange for all the time that runs off while doing the short gains, but not let them score quickly? 125 yards on 3 plays, with one 42 yd TD pass and one 69 yd TD pass, while running off 39 seconds seems like the exact opposite of what a Prevent D is supposed to do. I'm sure I'm missing something.... xscanx

[caribbeanhen]

8/1/2023



Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1049
41


2
North Dakota State Bison
973
1


3
Montana State Bobcats
967



4
Furman Paladins
857



5
Holy Cross Crusaders
810



6
William & Mary Tribe
786



7
Samford Bulldogs
690



8
Incarnate Word Cardinals
686



9
Sac State Hornets
589



10
Idaho Vandals
588



11
New Hampshire Wildcats
539



12
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
520



13
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
510



14
Montana Grizzlies
490



15
Weber State Wildcats
463



16
UC Davis Aggies
421



17
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
399



18
Richmond Spiders
326



19
Mercer Bears
322



20
Northern Iowa Panthers
233



21
North Carolina Central Eagles
181



22
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
178



23
Rhode Island Rams
147



24
Chattanooga Mocs
125



25
Elon Phoenix
107
















ORV:




26
Southern Illinois Salukis
82



27
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
76



28
Fordham Rams
73



29
Youngstown State Penguins
60



30
Missouri State Bears
58



31
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
49



32
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
44



33
Jackson State Tigers
34



34
Florida A&M Rattlers
32



35
Central Arkansas Bears
30



36
Yale Bulldogs
25



37
Austin Peay Governors
22



38
Princeton Tigers
21



39
St. Francis Red Flash
20



40
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
15




preseason poll looks fine because we haven’t seen any games yet

But Yale to low
to bad we will never know

[ElCid]

I'm just box score scanning, but WCU did out-gain Furman by 200 yards and had five more first downs than them. It was also a 27-20 game at half. Feels like a very competitive game.



It was just his attempt at spin. WCU was definitely in it. Regardless, Furman obviously didn't know how to do an effective prevent. WCU has had its moments over the years, but they lack consistency. Very hit and miss. Maybe they are getting it going. Time will tell.

[JSUSoutherner]

UNI - over ranked as always.
Not as over ranked as Furman

[ElCid]

Correct me if I'm wrong (and admittedly I didn't watch the game and I'm taking this box score from a potentially biased witness as fact), but isn't the Prevent defense designed to let the opponent dink and dunk down the field in exchange for all the time that runs off while doing the short gains, but not let them score quickly? 125 yards on 3 plays, with one 42 yd TD pass and one 69 yd TD pass, while running off 39 seconds seems like the exact opposite of what a Prevent D is supposed to do. I'm sure I'm missing something.... xscanx

No you are not missing a thing.

[Mike296]

Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2023 11:49:24

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: William & Mary Tribe
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Furman Paladins
8: UC Davis Aggies
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: North Carolina Central Eagles
12: Fordham Rams
13: Florida A&M Rattlers
14: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
15: Elon Phoenix
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
18: Sac State Hornets
19: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: St. Thomas Tommies
22: St. Francis Red Flash
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Idaho Vandals
25: Yale Bulldogs

Just as a Note. I did make an error putting St Thomas. I’m a little high on Florida A&M and NC Central I think in reflection. It also looks like in looking at the actual poll that I missed Mercer.

[caribbeanhen]

Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2023 11:49:24

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: William & Mary Tribe
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Furman Paladins
8: UC Davis Aggies
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: North Carolina Central Eagles
12: Fordham Rams
13: Florida A&M Rattlers
14: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
15: Elon Phoenix
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
18: Sac State Hornets
19: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: St. Thomas Tommies
22: St. Francis Red Flash
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Idaho Vandals
25: Yale Bulldogs

Just as a Note. I did make an error putting St Thomas. I’m a little high on Florida A&M and NC Central I think in reflection. It also looks like in looking at the actual poll that I missed Mercer.

Florida A&M over Southeastern Louisiana ?

Mike what are you reading ?

[Mike296]

Florida A&M over Southeastern Louisiana ?

Mike what are you reading ?

Im not completely sold on SELA as it is. When I made the Poll, I was going off a variety of things. I even said below in my post that I was high on the Rattlers. Yes they lost in the playoffs badly a few years ago when they didn’t deserve to even get in. However, this is arguably their best team in quite a while and with JSU basically in a shift in culture at the moment I could see A&M being a lot better than people give them credit for. I also Follow a lot more SWAC stuff than a lot of others on here I may reckon. Realistically, A&M is not a better team then SELA. However, I think at the end of the day you have to argue that sometimes you have to bite the bullet and tip your cap on certain teams.


As an aside: this is my first poll back so take it with a grain of salt.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

preseason poll looks fine because we haven’t seen any games yet

But Yale to low
to bad we will never know

I had the Eli #15 and Princeton #19. I think the Tigers will ultimately prove to be the better team but their close to 2022 left too foul of a taste to have them ahead of Yale to start 2023. Princeton needs to re-establish their offense. Do that and they'll be fine. It's an absolutely loaded roster imo. Yale is excellent in the trenches and play their own version of "Tressell Ball".

I am a big fan of IL football. It's a damn shame they won't step out of their bubble just a little more. They don't have to give in, but c'mon, give your student-athletes an opportunity to a DIVERSE array of opponents! Hmm, this sounds like a problem for the DEI offices around the Ancient 8.....xsmiley_wix

[FUBeAR]

Correct me if I'm wrong (and admittedly I didn't watch the game and I'm taking this box score from a potentially biased witness as fact), but isn't the Prevent defense designed to let the opponent dink and dunk down the field in exchange for all the time that runs off while doing the short gains, but not let them score quickly? 125 yards on 3 plays, with one 42 yd TD pass and one 69 yd TD pass, while running off 39 seconds seems like the exact opposite of what a Prevent D is supposed to do. I'm sure I'm missing something.... xscanx
LOL - in one of his rare moments of lucidity, CID is correct. You’re not missing anything. Not a lot of opportunities to practice Prevent Defense in the SoCon and Furman’s backup DB’s were less than stellar in their execution of the concept - they got SMOKED….it was pretty ugly. All’s Well that ends Well though.

[FUBeAR]

Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2023 11:49:24

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: William & Mary Tribe
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Furman Paladins
8: UC Davis Aggies
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: North Carolina Central Eagles
12: Fordham Rams
13: Florida A&M Rattlers
14: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
15: Elon Phoenix
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
18: Sac State Hornets
19: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: St. Thomas Tommies
22: St. Francis Red Flash
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Idaho Vandals
25: Yale Bulldogs

Just as a Note. I did make an error putting St Thomas. I’m a little high on Florida A&M and NC Central I think in reflection. It also looks like in looking at the actual poll that I missed Mercer.How many shots of Golden Grain did you drink after you listed your Top 10?

[Mike296]

How many shots of Golden Grain did you drink after you listed your Top 10?

Umm… I don’t drink. I know now that I have an overhaul in store for my wk1 poll.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

Im not completely sold on SELA as it is. When I made the Poll, I was going off a variety of things. I even said below in my post that I was high on the Rattlers. Yes they lost in the playoffs badly a few years ago when they didn’t deserve to even get in. However, this is arguably their best team in quite a while and with JSU basically in a shift in culture at the moment I could see A&M being a lot better than people give them credit for. I also Follow a lot more SWAC stuff than a lot of others on here I may reckon. Realistically, A&M is not a better team then SELA. However, I think at the end of the day you have to argue that sometimes you have to bite the bullet and tip your cap on certain teams.


As an aside: this is my first poll back so take it with a grain of salt.

St Francis?

They had some talent at WR the past few years

Summers is a talent but transferred to Rhode Island prior to 2022

last year they had a trio of good ones and I don’t think any are coming back

[Mike296]

St Francis?

They had some talent at WR the past few years

Summers is a talent but transferred to Rhode Island prior to 2022

last year they had a trio of good ones and I don’t think any are coming back

Now that one I wasn’t completely sold on when I made the pick so I’ll actually give you that one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

Now that one I wasn’t completely sold on when I made the pick so I’ll actually give you that one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well just remember you may end up being right and we might be the ones who are crazy

[Mike296]

Well just remember you may end up being right and we might be the ones who are crazy

Touché.

[HootyHoo]

Wait a minute, Furman is number 4 in the FCS? Hooty demands the Owls to be ranked when the paladins meet their fate. KSU is technically still in the FCS as an independent after the ASUN betrayal. We shall be represented in the Polls!

[FUBeAR]

Wait a minute, Furman is number 4 in the FCS? Hooty demands the Owls to be ranked when the paladins meet their fate. KSU is technically still in the FCS as an independent after the ASUN betrayal. We shall be represented in the Polls!
https://townsquare.media/site/76/files/2020/08/A26.jpg?w=980&q=75

Can’t wait to see you and all the other little owlets here @ Burger Chef Outdoor Arena & Charbroiler on 9/16. Extra pickles. No mayo.

[Chalupa Batman]

Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2023 11:49:24

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: William & Mary Tribe
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Furman Paladins
8: UC Davis Aggies
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: North Carolina Central Eagles
12: Fordham Rams
13: Florida A&M Rattlers
14: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
15: Elon Phoenix
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
18: Sac State Hornets
19: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: St. Thomas Tommies
22: St. Francis Red Flash
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Idaho Vandals
25: Yale Bulldogs

Just as a Note. I did make an error putting St Thomas. I’m a little high on Florida A&M and NC Central I think in reflection. It also looks like in looking at the actual poll that I missed Mercer.

You also missed Samford. That’s the biggest oversight of them all.

[Mike296]

You also missed Samford. That’s the biggest oversight of them all.

Oof. I had them in my hand written poll but missed them on the run through for the actual poll.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chalupa Batman]

UNI - over ranked as always.

You’re really gonna hate my poll then:


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: Samford Bulldogs
8: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
9: Northern Iowa Panthers
10: Idaho Vandals
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: Incarnate Word Cardinals
14: New Hampshire Wildcats
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: Mercer Bears
17: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
18: Weber State Wildcats
19: Richmond Spiders
20: Chattanooga Mocs
21: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
22: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
23: Sac State Hornets
24: Austin Peay Governors
25: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

[FUBeAR]

You’re really gonna hate my poll then:


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: Samford Bulldogs
8: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
9: Northern Iowa Panthers
10: Idaho Vandals
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: Incarnate Word Cardinals
14: New Hampshire Wildcats
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: Mercer Bears
17: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
18: Weber State Wildcats
19: Richmond Spiders
20: Chattanooga Mocs
21: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
22: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
23: Sac State Hornets
24: Austin Peay Governors
25: Gardner-Webb Runnin' BulldogsFUBeAR likes your poll. Keep up the good work!

[caribbeanhen]

You’re really gonna hate my poll then:


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: Samford Bulldogs
8: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
9: Northern Iowa Panthers
10: Idaho Vandals
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: Incarnate Word Cardinals
14: New Hampshire Wildcats
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: Mercer Bears
17: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
18: Weber State Wildcats
19: Richmond Spiders
20: Chattanooga Mocs
21: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
22: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
23: Sac State Hornets
24: Austin Peay Governors
25: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

Yale would have their way with several of your inclusions because they have better players

specifically Austin Peay

if you can just process that you would be unstoppable

[caribbeanhen]

Here's my go at it...

Much higher on Davis, North Dakota, and Youngstown than many. Not as high on Incarnate Word and Montana.

Western Carolina really isn't receiving votes? I'm so surprised about that. They won their last three games of the season, one of which likely kept Chattanooga out of the playoffs, and played Furman to a 47-40 game on the road. Kerwin Bell has this program trending upward, IMO. Desmond Reid is going to have a big year, too.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Holy Cross Crusaders
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: UC Davis Aggies
8: Samford Bulldogs
9: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
10: New Hampshire Wildcats
11: Idaho Vandals
12: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
13: Weber State Wildcats
14: Incarnate Word Cardinals
15: Sac State Hornets
16: Mercer Bears
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Rhode Island Rams
20: Montana Grizzlies
21: North Carolina Central Eagles
22: Youngstown State Penguins
23: Princeton Tigers
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

How did New Hampshire get better than NC Central?

[caribbeanhen]

Hello Caribbeanhen ,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/29/2023 7:26:55

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Furman Paladins
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Samford Bulldogs
7: Holy Cross Crusaders
8: William & Mary Tribe
9: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
10: Idaho Vandals
11: Sac State Hornets
12: North Carolina Central Eagles
13: Mercer Bears
14: Jackson State Tigers
15: Weber State Wildcats
16: Montana Grizzlies
17: New Hampshire Wildcats
18: Northern Iowa Panthers
19: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
20: Richmond Spiders
21: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
22: UC Davis Aggies
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Elon Phoenix
25: Yale Bulldogs

[Chalupa Batman]

Yale would have their way with several of your inclusions because they have better players

specifically Austin Peay

if you can just process that you would be unstoppable

You may be right. My poll is going to be very fluid the first few weeks, especially outside the top 7 or so.

[crusader11]

How did New Hampshire get better than NC Central?

I can't imagine having SC St or Campbell ahead of NC Central.

Not one game defines a season...and certainly not another season.

[FUBeAR]

Hello Caribbeanhen ,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/29/2023 7:26:55

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Furman Paladins
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Samford Bulldogs
7: Holy Cross Crusaders
8: William & Mary Tribe
9: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
10: Idaho Vandals
11: Sac State Hornets
12: North Carolina Central Eagles
13: Mercer Bears
14: Jackson State Tigers
15: Weber State Wildcats
16: Montana Grizzlies
17: New Hampshire Wildcats
18: Northern Iowa Panthers
19: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
20: Richmond Spiders
21: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
22: UC Davis Aggies
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Elon Phoenix
25: Yale BulldogsNice. Elon too low though.

[FUBeAR]

You may be right. My poll is going to be very fluid the first few weeks, especially outside the top 7 or so.
Massey says APSU beats Yale by a FG on a neutral field. FUBeAR says Massey is about 2 TD’s ‘light.’

Don’t listen to CHen. Even though he may be from the part of DE that is below most of the M-D Line, he’s got that Northeastern bias. Just can’t help it due to his long-time association with the Coastal Atheltic Association.

[caribbeanhen]

I can't imagine having SC St or Campbell ahead of NC Central.

Not one game defines a season...and certainly not another season.

SC St and Campbell aren’t in your poll though

[crusader11]

SC St and Campbell aren’t in your poll though

Why aren’t they in yours though since they both beat NC Central? Campbell thoroughly dominated them.

[SeattleCat]

This poll is always the best, proud to be a part of it. I thought the rankings looked pretty good for preseason.

here's my take:

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Sac State Hornets
9: Samford Bulldogs
10: Incarnate Word Cardinals
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: New Hampshire Wildcats
14: Montana Grizzlies
15: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
16: Mercer Bears
17: UC Davis Aggies
18: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
19: Richmond Spiders
20: North Carolina Central Eagles
21: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
22: Jackson State Tigers
23: Rhode Island Rams
24: Princeton Tigers
25: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

SeattleCat

The Most Significant Win: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Most Significant Loss: Sac State Hornets
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Big Sky Conference

[NDSU1980]

Here's my take on things. I think people have Furman rated too high.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Idaho Vandals
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Samford Bulldogs
8: Sac State Hornets
9: William & Mary Tribe
10: Furman Paladins
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: Montana Grizzlies
14: UC Davis Aggies
15: New Hampshire Wildcats
16: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
17: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
18: Northern Iowa Panthers
19: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
20: Mercer Bears
21: Rhode Island Rams
22: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
23: Florida A&M Rattlers
24: North Carolina Central Eagles
25: Southern Illinois Salukis

[caribbeanhen]

Massey says APSU beats Yale by a FG on a neutral field. FUBeAR says Massey is about 2 TD’s ‘light.’

Don’t listen to CHen. Even though he may be from the part of DE that is below most of the M-D Line, he’s got that Northeastern bias. Just can’t help it due to his long-time association with the Coastal Atheltic Association.

haha Tell me you’re boarding the last train to Clarksville

[SeattleCat]

Lots of love to SELA, especially after UIW run last year, why is everyone so high on them?

[caribbeanhen]

Why aren’t they in yours though since they both beat NC Central? Campbell thoroughly dominated them.

I was surprised to see UNH dominated by NC Central at New Hampshire last year, it’s gonna take more than a year to flush that out of my brain. Therefore the higher rating for NC Central

[POD Knows]

I was surprised to see UNH dominated by NC Central at New Hampshire last year, it’s gonna take more than a year to flush that out of my brain. Therefore the higher rating for NC CentralNDSU has dismantled Montana State every time they have played them yet you have them ranked over NDSU. I get it was a year or two ago but? Actually, I don't have a real issue with the ranking, just trying to make a point. I can't find the email response to my poll and I tossed my hand written poll away but I think I had NH over NCCU as well.

[wmmii]

The imbalance schedule is creating opportunities for teams to have better records in the large leagues plus home field advantage. A good loss is still worse than a win against a weaker team which will happen with the imbalance schedule many times this year. Some of the preseason polls especially in the Big Sky influenced by rankings. Bottomline is UC Davis and W&M much higher than most:



1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: William & Mary Tribe
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Montana State Bobcats
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Holy Cross Crusaders
7: Sac State Hornets
8: Samford Bulldogs
9: Northern Iowa Panthers
10: Richmond Spiders
11: Idaho Vandals
12: Incarnate Word Cardinals
13: Furman Paladins
14: New Hampshire Wildcats
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
17: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
18: Weber State Wildcats
19: Southern Illinois Salukis
20: Elon Phoenix
21: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
22: Rhode Island Rams
23: Mercer Bears
24: Yale Bulldogs
25: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks

[Preferred Walk-On]

Figured I'd play along...

-----

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/31/2023 15:07:51

Your vote is listed below.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Holy Cross Crusaders
4: Furman Paladins
5: Samford Bulldogs
6: North Dakota State Bison
7: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
8: Idaho Vandals
9: Mercer Bears
10: William & Mary Tribe
11: Richmond Spiders
12: Northern Iowa Panthers
13: Incarnate Word Cardinals
14: UC Davis Aggies
15: New Hampshire Wildcats
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: Montana Grizzlies
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
20: Southern Illinois Salukis
21: Weber State Wildcats
22: North Carolina Central Eagles
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
25: St. Thomas Tommies

Preferred Walk-On

The Most Significant Win: -----------------------------
The Most Significant Loss: -----------------------------
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

[ursus arctos horribilis]

This poll is always the best, proud to be a part of it. I thought the rankings looked pretty good for preseason.

here's my take:

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Holy Cross Crusaders
5: Furman Paladins
6: William & Mary Tribe
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Sac State Hornets
9: Samford Bulldogs
10: Incarnate Word Cardinals
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: New Hampshire Wildcats
14: Montana Grizzlies
15: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
16: Mercer Bears
17: UC Davis Aggies
18: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
19: Richmond Spiders
20: North Carolina Central Eagles
21: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
22: Jackson State Tigers
23: Rhode Island Rams
24: Princeton Tigers
25: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

SeattleCat

The Most Significant Win: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Most Significant Loss: Sac State Hornets
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Big Sky Conference

Glad you are with us and it's always great to get some new blook in the mix around here with the voting. Thanks for putting in an effort SeaCat.

[Mike296]

Figured I'd play along...

-----

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/31/2023 15:07:51

Your vote is listed below.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Holy Cross Crusaders
4: Furman Paladins
5: Samford Bulldogs
6: North Dakota State Bison
7: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
8: Idaho Vandals
9: Mercer Bears
10: William & Mary Tribe
11: Richmond Spiders
12: Northern Iowa Panthers
13: Incarnate Word Cardinals
14: UC Davis Aggies
15: New Hampshire Wildcats
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: Montana Grizzlies
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
20: Southern Illinois Salukis
21: Weber State Wildcats
22: North Carolina Central Eagles
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
25: St. Thomas Tommies

Preferred Walk-On

The Most Significant Win: -----------------------------
The Most Significant Loss: -----------------------------
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

I thought I was going to be the only one with St Thomas in their poll. Guess you see something too?

[KPSUL]

I was surprised to see UNH dominated by NC Central at New Hampshire last year, it’s gonna take more than a year to flush that out of my brain. Therefore the higher rating for NC Central

I absolutely agree, now and forever more, games vs NCCU should always be the primary factor in where to rank FCS teams. In fact, if a team doesn't play NCCU, I don't believe they can truly be ranked accurately. Unlike any other team in college football, the outcome of their games is a perfect predictor of future performance, and should take precedence over all preceding games played that season. Both the Eagles and all of their opponents play to their full potential all game, every game, and both game plans will both exploit the vulnerabilities of the opponent and the teams own strengths relative to the opposing team. Clearly games vs NCCU should be seen as the Atomic Clock, the James Webb Telescope and the Catholic Pope of the measurement of college football teams.

[FUBeAR]

2: William & Mary Tribe

13: Furman Paladins

20: Elon Phoenix

🧐



1
2
3
4


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2210.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32Elon
7
3
6
19
35


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2729.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32William & Mary
14
14
3
0
31






1
2
3
4


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2210.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32Elon
3
0
0
3
6


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/231.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32Furman
7
7
3
14
31



🧐


1 of these things seems out of place…

[ElCid]

I absolutely agree, now and forever more, games vs NCCU should always be the primary factor in where to rank FCS teams. In fact, if a team doesn't play NCCU, I don't believe they can truly be ranked accurately. Unlike any other team in college football, the outcome of their games is a perfect predictor of future performance, and should take precedence over all preceding games played that season. Both the Eagles and all of their opponents play to their full potential all game, every game, and both game plans will both exploit the vulnerabilities of the opponent and the teams own strengths relative to the opposing team. Clearly games vs NCCU should be seen as the Atomic Clock, the James Webb Telescope and the Catholic Pope of the measurement of college football teams.

Hah. The sarcasm is spilling out of my phone. I think that game was just a one off. They came to play and I'm sure NH just overlooked them a bit. Good on them to win, and they had a decent season, mostly, but I think people who use it as a firm benchmark, especially for this season, are being a bit extreme.

[KPSUL]

Hah. The sarcasm is spilling out of my phone. I think that game was just a one off. They came to play and I'm sure NH just overlooked them a bit. Good on them to win, and they had a decent season, mostly, but I think people who use it as a firm benchmark, especially for this season, are being a bit extreme.

You are pretty much on target.
The game made me a bit of a NCCU fan and was thrilled to see them beat Jackson St. in the Celebration Bowl. It was only the 3rd game for UNH and we were coming off a 3-8 2021 season. So, at the time, I'm not sure NCCU got as much credit for that win @ NH as they deserved. They outcoached and out played us. Looking forward to visiting NCCU when we play them down there in 2025.

[caribbeanhen]

I absolutely agree, now and forever more, games vs NCCU should always be the primary factor in where to rank FCS teams. In fact, if a team doesn't play NCCU, I don't believe they can truly be ranked accurately. Unlike any other team in college football, the outcome of their games is a perfect predictor of future performance, and should take precedence over all preceding games played that season. Both the Eagles and all of their opponents play to their full potential all game, every game, and both game plans will both exploit the vulnerabilities of the opponent and the teams own strengths relative to the opposing team. Clearly games vs NCCU should be seen as the Atomic Clock, the James Webb Telescope and the Catholic Pope of the measurement of college football teams.

Is that the telescope you have to put a quarter in to see the game from the distant track balcony stands at a UNH game ?

[caribbeanhen]

Hah. The sarcasm is spilling out of my phone. I think that game was just a one off. They came to play and I'm sure NH just overlooked them a bit. Good on them to win, and they had a decent season, mostly, but I think people who use it as a firm benchmark, especially for this season, are being a bit extreme.

maybe they did but once game started it was clear it was going to be a long day for the Wildcats, they were soundly beaten

[MR. CHICKEN]

You are pretty much on target.
The game made me a bit of a NCCU fan and was thrilled to see them beat Jackson St. in the Celebration Bowl. It was only the 3rd game for UNH and we were coming off a 3-8 2021 season. So, at the time, I'm not sure NCCU got as much credit for that win @ NH as they deserved. They outcoached and out played us. Looking forward to visiting NCCU when we play them down there in 2025.

........xviolinx...........AWQ!

[Tribe4SF]

On the subject of NCCU just two weeks after their win at UNH they were pounded by Campbell 48-18. Complete domination by the Camels in that one.

[KPSUL]

........xviolinx...........AWQ!

Put away your fiddle my fowl friend. You need to read the whole post - I know it is pretty long - 3 and a half lines. Not looking for sympathy or making excuses, they beat us fair and square!

[KPSUL]

On the subject of NCCU just two weeks after their win at UNH they were pounded by Campbell 48-18. Complete domination by the Camels in that one.

Yep, and Campbell finished out their season 3-4 with the 3 wins coming against Chuck South, Bobby Morris and Delaware State (3 team total 2022 record 6-28). Two of the four losses were to NCA&T and Jackson State - teams NCCU beat in 2022. I guess that's why they call this Message Board" Any Given Saturday"?

[caribbeanhen]

On the subject of NCCU just two weeks after their win at UNH they were pounded by Campbell 48-18. Complete domination by the Camels in that one.

Nobody knows what the Camels are really, I know they played you tough in first half last year but went down hard in second half

[ElCid]

On the subject of NCCU just two weeks after their win at UNH they were pounded by Campbell 48-18. Complete domination by the Camels in that one.

Campbell was very inconsistent last year. They ran over us in game 1 with a hyper hurry up offense we were totally unprepared for. Now we weren't that great, but they played both W&M and Jackson St to two and one score games. They also had some head scratchers with A&T and Bryant, although they were both one score losses. Them beating NCCU wasn't a huge surprise.

[caribbeanhen]

Campbell was very inconsistent last year. They ran over us in game 1 with a hyper hurry up offense we were totally unprepared for. Now we weren't that great, but they played both W&M and Jackson St to two and one score games. They also had some head scratchers with A&T and Bryant, although they were both one score losses. Them beating NCCU wasn't a huge surprise.

I wouldn’t say A&T was a head scratcher really, anyway we’ll learn a lot this year about both

[ElCid]

I wouldn’t say A&T was a head scratcher really, anyway we’ll learn a lot this year about both

Probably too harsh a phrase. Mildly surprising?...not unlike Campbell beating down NCCU ...at the time. Not after the end of the season and looking at the entire season.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I hope Kansas State is ready for Southeast Missouri State! The Redbirds will come to Manhattan with plenty of confidence after now establishing a bit of a national presence. With SBC favorite Troy the following week, SEMO can't be overlooked.

With EKU and UT-Martin showing some promise, the OVC has shown to be credible in today's FCS.

[caribbeanhen]

Probably too harsh a phrase. Mildly surprising?...not unlike Campbell beating down NCCU ...at the time. Not after the end of the season and looking at the entire season.

I just think people are lumping NC A&T in with the Hampton Inn aka Heartbreak Hotel

I think NC A&T is better than lots of CAA fans in particular are giving them credit for, and I’m talking about the fanbase and some good history that comes with them

[KPSUL]

I just think people are lumping NC A&T in with the Hampton Inn aka Heartbreak Hotel

I think NC A&T is better than lots of CAA fans in particular are giving them credit for, and I’m talking about the fanbase and some good history that comes with them

Hold your hat, you're in for a surprise - I agree with you! NC A&T was the dominant force in HBCU football from about 2015-2019, but also had a couple of FBS wins and beat most of the OOC FCS opponents they played.

[caribbeanhen]

Hold your hat, you're in for a surprise - I agree with you! NC A&T was the dominant force in HBCU football from about 2015-2019, but also had a couple of FBS wins and beat most of the OOC FCS opponents they played.

We agree on lots of things really but don’t tell anyone

[caribbeanhen]

Lots of love to SELA, especially after UIW run last year, why is everyone so high on them?

They always have talent
they have a good head coach
they are fun to watch

They beat Villanova in 2019 in a great playoff game and beat Big Idaho Sky last year in another good one

I think there finally getting some respect

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Massey:

https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs

[Preferred Walk-On]

Massey:

https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs

Even Massey is drinking the Northern Iowa Kool-Aid...for those that think UNI is over-ranked. ;)

[Preferred Walk-On]

I thought I was going to be the only one with St Thomas in their poll. Guess you see something too?

For me, it is the fact that they are a former D-III with a successful past, a pretty darned good showing last year, and have invested and are quite serious about their football program. Oh, and they were picked to finish first in the Pioneer (which I only saw after I had submitted my poll). I know...Pioneer, but still. What I had seen from them most of last year was not that different in quality from watching a Friday evening Ivy game...caribbeanhen in 10, 9, 8, ...

[caribbeanhen]

For me, it is the fact that they are a former D-III with a successful past, a pretty darned good showing last year, and have invested and are quite serious about their football program. Oh, and they were picked to finish first in the Pioneer (which I only saw after I had submitted my poll). I know...Pioneer, but still. What I had seen from them most of last year was not that different in quality from watching a Friday evening Ivy game...caribbeanhen in 10, 9, 8, ...

Haha

Well mark September 16th on your calendar because Harvard is hosting St Thomas

it’s put up or shut up time for Ivy League in this one

[Gil Dobie]

Furman too low

MVFC teams too high

[FUBeAR]

Furman too low

MVFC teams too high


Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1049
41


2
North Dakota State Bison
973
1


3
Montana State Bobcats
967



4
Furman Paladins
857



Disagree … until Furman defeats FBS P5 SEC South Carolina on 9/9.

At that time, Furman should move to #1, regardless of NDSU’s outcomes vs. EWU and Maine, SDSU’s outcomes vs. a D2 and Montana State, and Montana State’s outcomes vs. Utah Tech and SDSU.

[Gil Dobie]

Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1049
41


2
North Dakota State Bison
973
1


3
Montana State Bobcats
967



4
Furman Paladins
857



Disagree … until Furman defeats FBS P5 SEC South Carolina on 9/9.

At that time, Furman should move to #1, regardless of NDSU’s outcomes vs. EWU and Maine, SDSU’s outcomes vs. a D2 and Montana State, and Montana State’s outcomes vs. Utah Tech and SDSU.

Sagarin had SDSU at 41 last year, same team this year. South Carolina 38 with more players to replace. I think Furman has a chance.

[FUBeAR]

Sagarin had SDSU at 41 last year, same team this year. South Carolina 38 with more players to replace. I think Furman has a chance.
42 - Chickens
65 - Bunnies
123 - Paladins

…per Massey.

Furman’s night of 9/9 FBS P5 SEC victory in COLA, SC should surely propel the Purple to the pinnacle position in FCS polls.

[ElCid]

Massey:

https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs

This is new. Hadn't seen this before. But I went to the links provided and the sites don't have their methodologies listed. At least I didn't find them yet. Some of the spreads for a few teams between these rankings are ridiculous. In a couple cases they are 50+ spots different. There are obviously some biases in the algorithms at work. It seems just a mini version of the standard composite which I have never been a fan of for this same issue.

[clenz]

Even Massey is drinking the Northern Iowa Kool-Aid...for those that think UNI is over-ranked. ;)
I don't even have to click the link to know UNI is overrated.

If I have learned literally nothing else from AGS over the last 16 years it's that UNI is overrated. Doesn't matter where they are rated, they are overrated, overvalued, overhyped, over puffed, coattail-riding phonies.

[SU DOG]

42 - Chickens
65 - Bunnies
123 - Paladins

…per Massey.

Furman’s night of 9/9 FBS P5 SEC victory in COLA, SC should surely propel the Purple to the pinnacle position in FCS polls.

WOW! If FU can beat a top 25 SEC team, then I'm thinking that Samford will have no trouble with Auburn LOL. Then I suddenly snap out of it and reality sets in, and I'm saying - hope for no serious injury and grab that check.

[caribbeanhen]

I don't even have to click the link to know UNI is overrated.

If I have learned literally nothing else from AGS over the last 16 years it's that UNI is overrated. Doesn't matter where they are rated, they are overrated, overvalued, overhyped, over puffed, coattail-riding phonies.

Hero sports always agrees with this

however Stan the Man Becton has N Iowa getting a seed

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-08-02/way-too-early-2023-fcs-playoff-bracket-preseason-predictions

Seeds

Montana State
South Dakota State
William & Mary
North Dakota State
Holy Cross
Northern Iowa
Samford
Idaho

[FUBeAR]

WOW! If FU can beat a top 25 SEC team, then I'm thinking that Samford will have no trouble with Auburn LOL. Then I suddenly snap out of it and reality sets in, and I'm saying - hope for no serious injury and grab that check.
1) If??? Hah!
https://twitter.com/paladinfootball/status/1449342205441753090
2) 42 is 17 spots below 25; sure some outlets have the Chickens ranked as high as #12, but FUBeAR don’t care.

3) Yes - FUBeAR will be highly disappointed if the HomewoodHounds do not light up the WarTigerPlainsmen. He also expects Mercer to get by Ole Miss. WCU @ Arkansas is a toss-up. Catamounts should be favored by 3 scores if you listen to their fans…and their Head Coach.

Chatt will lose to Alabama though, but only because it’s the final regular season game of the SnakeTrainBirdShoes season and it’s in their University Bylaws that they must lose the final regular season game of every football season - regardless of the level of the opponent…

#15 CHATTANOOGA -VS- WESTERN CAROLINA - 2022 Season


Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


Chattanooga
7
7
9
6
29


Western Carolina
7
7
7
11
32


THE CITADEL -VS- CHATTANOOGA - 2021 Season


Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


The Citadel
7
7
3
7
24


Chattanooga
7
14
0
0
21


MERCER -VS- #9 CHATTANOOGA - 2020 Season


Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


Mercer
7
7
14
7
35


Chattanooga
0
7
7
14
28


CHATTANOOGA -VS- VMI - 2019 Season


Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


Chattanooga
10
0
7
7
24


VMI
3
14
14
0
31


CHATTANOOGA -VS- SOUTH CAROLINA - 2018 Season


Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


Chattanooga
0
3
0
6
9


South Carolina
14
14
7
14
49



3) Years of data have proven that the chance of injuries to FCS Players in games vs. FBS opponents is actually significantly lower than that of FCS vs. FCS games…as far as you know.

4) Yes - that SEC money spends well, don’t it?

[nodak651]

That's funny because the same guy didn't put them in the potential seed tier in his other article. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-04-13/way-too-early-fcs-tiers-every-team-entering-2023-season?utm_campaign=inline-article

[nodak651]

Hero sports always agrees with this

however Stan the Man Becton has N Iowa getting a seed

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-08-02/way-too-early-2023-fcs-playoff-bracket-preseason-predictions

Seeds



Montana State
South Dakota State
William & Mary
North Dakota State
Holy Cross
Northern Iowa
Samford
Idaho


That's funny because the same guy didn't put them in the potential seed tier in his other article. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-04-13/way-too-early-fcs-tiers-every-team-entering-2023-season?utm_campaign=inline-article

[MR. CHICKEN]

That's funny because the same guy didn't put them in the potential seed tier in his other article. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-04-13/way-too-early-fcs-tiers-every-team-entering-2023-season?utm_campaign=inline-article

.....RAT BAST@RD!

[caribbeanhen]

That's funny because the same guy didn't put them in the potential seed tier in his other article. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-04-13/way-too-early-fcs-tiers-every-team-entering-2023-season?utm_campaign=inline-article


I think Stan does his FCS duties while sipping a latte in a metropolitan Starbucks as some type of collateral duty that nobody wanted….

[MR. CHICKEN]

I think Stan does his FCS duties while sipping a latte in a metropolitan Starbucks as some type of collateral duty that nobody wanted….

.....VIRUS...IN DUH WI-FI.......BAWK!

[Preferred Walk-On]

I don't even have to click the link to know UNI is overrated.

If I have learned literally nothing else from AGS over the last 16 years it's that UNI is overrated. Doesn't matter where they are rated, they are overrated, overvalued, overhyped, over puffed, coattail-riding phonies.

FWIW, I had UNI @ #12...obviously, I don't think they're overrated.

Quite honestly, I'd take a 6-5 UNI team almost any year over all of the other teams people have argued on AGS deserve to be in over them. Call it MVFC bias if you want, but I will defer to carribeanhen's philosophy that this is not bias, but simply the "eye-test". That last game of this season at the UNI-Dome should be a good one.

[caribbeanhen]

FWIW, I had UNI @ #12...obviously, I don't think they're overrated.

Quite honestly, I'd take a 6-5 UNI team almost any year over all of the other teams people have argued on AGS deserve to be in over them. Call it MVFC bias if you want, but I will defer to carribeanhen's philosophy that this is not bias, but simply the "eye-test". That last game of this season at the UNI-Dome should be a good one.

I basically agree with you here

Harvard 9/16?

[POD Knows]

Figured I'd play along...

-----

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/31/2023 15:07:51

Your vote is listed below.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Holy Cross Crusaders
4: Furman Paladins
5: Samford Bulldogs
6: North Dakota State Bison
7: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
8: Idaho Vandals
9: Mercer Bears
10: William & Mary Tribe
11: Richmond Spiders
12: Northern Iowa Panthers
13: Incarnate Word Cardinals
14: UC Davis Aggies
15: New Hampshire Wildcats
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: Montana Grizzlies
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
20: Southern Illinois Salukis
21: Weber State Wildcats
22: North Carolina Central Eagles
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
25: St. Thomas Tommies

Preferred Walk-On

The Most Significant Win: -----------------------------
The Most Significant Loss: -----------------------------
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football ConferenceRU ****ing kidding me, wow, this a hot garbage, I get this poll if some weird **** happens during the year but for a pre-season poll this is crap. Sorry, it just is. None of those teams, with the exception of SDSU, has proven they are better than NDSU.

[FUBeAR]

RU ****ing kidding me, wow, this a hot garbage…None of those teams, with the exception of SDSU, has proven they are better than NDSU.
Did the 2023 Season start while FUBeAR must’ve been in another WHATABURGER food coma? How many weeks did FUBeAR miss?

[POD Knows]

Did the 2023 Season start while FUBeAR must’ve been in another WHATABURGER food coma? How many weeks did FUBeAR miss?Exactly, thanks for proving my ****ing point. Bravo

[wmmii]

類



1
2
3
4


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2210.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32Elon
7
3
6
19
35


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2729.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32William & Mary
14
14
3
0
31






1
2
3
4


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2210.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32Elon
3
0
0
3
6


https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/231.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=32&h=32Furman
7
7
3
14
31



類


1 of these things seems out of place…

You are in a time warp still looking at last season.

Do agree that I got Furman too low as it was driven by them having to play @ Samford and assuming they might lose (projection of Massey). Ranked W&M higher due to their weak CAA schedule and higher possibly of running the table.

[KPSUL]

Ranking UNI between 10 and 15 is reasonable. They were ranked 3rd in the MVFC Preseason Poll and when can anyone remember not seeing 4 valley teams in the top 25. It is still FCS football's top conference.

Richmond is seeing to much love from some AGS voters. They do deserve recognition for how well the played Sac State in the playoffs, but they were hit pretty hard by graduation and the portal. Gone are the VMI boys Udinski QB and Herres WR. Also their #1 2022 RB, Aaron Dykes is making the rounds of NFL teams as an UDFA. So this is the majority of their 2022 offensive production gone. More production returning on the defensive side but still some solid 2022 two-deepers not on the 2023 rosters

[FUBeAR]

You are in a time warp still looking at last season.

Do agree that I got Furman too low as it was driven by them having to play @ Samford and assuming they might lose (projection of Massey). Ranked W&M higher due to their weak CAA schedule and higher possibly of running the table.So…your rankings take a forward-looking strength of schedule calculus and you move Teams up if they play a weaker schedule and down if their schedule is tougher? What if a Team’s schedule is really front-loaded - SEC game(s) & their toughest conference opponents all in the 1st 7/8 weeks and then finishes with several PFL/NEC opponents? Would they be ranked really low at the beginning of the season and then zoom up in your rankings later on as the easier games get closer?

FUBeAR, seemingly naively, thought that rankings were supposed to...

...reflect the voters’ opinions of which Teams were better than which other Teams at the time the rankings are submitted.

In FUBeAR’s voting days, he wasted time each week asking himself...

“FUBeAR, in your heart-of-hearts, on a neutral field, do you believe the Team you have at #7 would beat the Team you have at #8, but lose to the one you have at #6 if they played today?"

Seems doing that for every Team on his list and the 10 or so just outside it - and then adjusting iteratively based on his heart-of-hearts answer - was a big waste of time. No wonder FUBeAR had to quit voting. He was doing it wrong. He never even once considered the critical “inverse impact of strength of future schedule” metric in his ranking criteria. What a Bear of very little brain he truly is!

Did you say Time Warp?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umj0gu5nEGs

[caribbeanhen]

Ranking UNI between 10 and 15 is reasonable. They were ranked 3rd in the MVFC Preseason Poll and when can anyone remember not seeing 4 valley teams in the top 25. It is still FCS football's top conference.

Richmond is seeing too much love from some AGS voters. They do deserve recognition for how well the played Sac State in the playoffs, but they were hit pretty hard by graduation and the portal. Gone are the VMI boys Udinski QB and Herres WR. Also their #1 2022 RB, Aaron Dykes is making the rounds of NFL teams as an UDFA. So this is the majority of their 2022 offensive production gone. More production returning on the defensive side but still some solid 2022 three-deepers not on the 2023 rosters

You're spilling truth here

Is like turning a big tanker, rudder goes over but the ships heading doesn’t start swinging for 20 seconds or so.

[atthewbon]

Ranking UNI between 10 and 15 is reasonable. They were ranked 3rd in the MVFC Preseason Poll and when can anyone remember not seeing 4 valley teams in the top 25. It is still FCS football's top conference.

Richmond is seeing to much love from some AGS voters. They do deserve recognition for how well the played Sac State in the playoffs, but they were hit pretty hard by graduation and the portal. Gone are the VMI boys Udinski QB and Herres WR. Also their #1 2022 RB, Aaron Dykes is making the rounds of NFL teams as an UDFA. So this is the majority of their 2022 offensive production gone. More production returning on the defensive side but still some solid 2022 two-deepers not on the 2023 rosters

Yea I debated removing Richmond entirely from my ballot, losing Udinski is a big loss, but I decided to keep them at 21. They don't have the hardest schedule this year, so it'll be interesting to see how they do against the few top teams they play because they play almost all of the teams at the bottom of the CAA preseason poll. They don't play anyone projected to be very good (besides Michigan st) until later in the year. Could be a team that benefits from the CAA label come playoff time.

[Preferred Walk-On]

None of those teams, with the exception of SDSU, has proven they are better than NDSU.

Thank you for your constructive input. I hope you are right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Preferred Walk-On]

Haha

Well mark September 16th on your calendar because Harvard is hosting St Thomas

it’s put up or shut up time for Ivy League in this one

Agreed, and should be an interesting watch. I know I’ll be catching the replay following a Bison victory. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ncspiderfan]

Ranking UNI between 10 and 15 is reasonable. They were ranked 3rd in the MVFC Preseason Poll and when can anyone remember not seeing 4 valley teams in the top 25. It is still FCS football's top conference.

Richmond is seeing to much love from some AGS voters. They do deserve recognition for how well the played Sac State in the playoffs, but they were hit pretty hard by graduation and the portal. Gone are the VMI boys Udinski QB and Herres WR. Also their #1 2022 RB, Aaron Dykes is making the rounds of NFL teams as an UDFA. So this is the majority of their 2022 offensive production gone. More production returning on the defensive side but still some solid 2022 two-deepers not on the 2023 rosters

Not a voter, but switch the Hens and the Spiders would seem about right, IMO.

Spider defense should still be solid if youngsters at LB position develop, Wheeler can not do it all by himself. Couple of portal pick ups at DB will hopefully tighten up the two deep there with most back. DL has six that have started on two deep and a couple of younger guys that showed promise in their four games last year, might be best position group as a whole.

Loss of Dykes while it hurts is different when you consider that Smith his back up and he were pretty much one on one off every other series all of last year and the other grad that was in the portal came back for a masters year after dropping from the portal late, so 2 grads as backups and RS Senior starter. Two TE back from injury, OL starters have all started in past, but depth a little thin IMO. QB is biggest question and WR has question marks, as not just Herres is gone, also Henley graduating and now Williams due to spring injury, so top three from last year gone. Picked up ETSU transfer and one starter back (they used four on many downs), the back ups last year were pretty good, just the starters were all really good. We'll see how the Co-OCs work out.

As a sidebar Dykes is now a HS RB coach, according to a post on our board.

[Gil Dobie]

RU ****ing kidding me, wow, this a hot garbage, I get this poll if some weird **** happens during the year but for a pre-season poll this is crap. Sorry, it just is. None of those teams, with the exception of SDSU, has proven they are better than NDSU.

I have NDSU in the same spot. No one has proven anything yet. This is basically my prediction of the season ending poll, not a continuation on last year's poll. I'll be more than happy if the Bison finish higher.

[ElCid]

No one has proven anything yet. This is basically my prediction of the season ending poll, not a continuation on last year's poll.

I wish more people could understand this. The lazy way is to just assume the poll should be the same as last year. It's ok to start there, and it may be close, but last season is done and gone. Players have left, been injured, gotten bigger or more experienced. Coaches have gone and new ones are shaking things up. They are all devising new plays and developing or recruiting new players. Why people keep referring to last year as "absolute" justification as to why team X should be ranked in a certain spot makes little sense in a preseason poll. We have zero evidence resulting from all the changes. Just guesstimates.

[caribbeanhen]

Agreed, and should be an interesting watch. I know I’ll be catching the replay following a Bison victory. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Very interesting as you have St Thomas ranked

[FUBeAR]

I wish more people could understand this. The lazy way is to just assume the poll should be the same as last year. It's ok to start there, and it may be close, but last season is done and gone. Players have left, been injured, gotten bigger or more experienced. Coaches have gone and new ones are shaking things up. They are all devising new plays and developing or recruiting new players. Why people keep referring to last year as "absolute" justification as to why team X should be ranked in a certain spot makes little sense in a preseason poll. We have zero evidence resulting from all the changes. Just guesstimates.
Agree in principle… but …

It ain’t all new for every Team.

We SHOULD consider prior year performance, weighting the latter part of the season more than the earlier. We should also consider Starters Returning (looking into how that breaks down and who they are / what positions do they play) and factor that in with the prior year performance calculus. Then factor in the value of & assessment of Coaching Staff continuity.

Then, once we’re done looking behind the boat, we can look ahead - new Players, new Coaches, lost Players, lost Coaches, etc.

Roll that all together - then decide if you think, let’s say, SDSU can beat, let’s say, Presbyterian, on a neutral field today and iteratively determine your rankings.

Last year matters, it should be considered, but it is certainly not dispositive.

Hence FUBeAR’s ‘gig’ (that in no way whatsoever proved POD’s ludicrous point)…at POD about his “proven” remark regarding Preferred Walk-On’s rankings.

Past, Present, and Expected Future all matter in Preseason Rankings.

[ElCid]

Agree in principle… but …

It ain’t all new for every Team.

We SHOULD consider prior year performance, weighting the latter part of the season more than the earlier. We should also consider Starters Returning (looking into how that breaks down and who they are / what positions do they play) and factor that in with the prior year performance calculus. Then factor in the value of & assessment of Coaching Staff continuity.

Then, once we’re done looking behind the boat, we can look ahead - new Players, new Coaches, lost Players, lost Coaches, etc.

Roll that all together - then decide if you think, let’s say, SDSU can beat, let’s say, Presbyterian, on a neutral field today and iteratively determine your rankings.

Last year matters, it should be considered, but it is certainly not dispositive.

Hence FUBeAR’s ‘gig’ (that in no way whatsoever proved POD’s ludicrous point)…at POD about his “proven” remark regarding Preferred Walk-On’s rankings.

Past, Present, and Expected Future all matter in Preseason Rankings.


Of course last year has some impact. Hence, why I said, "Why people keep referring or suggesting to last year as "absolute" justification as to why team X should be ranked in a certain spot makes little sense in a preseason poll. It's obviously not a clean slate, but a lot has been erased or rewritten. So many folks are just arguing "X team did this last year, so they will again." Maybe, maybe not. I'll call it the NDSU syndrome since their success has fostered this kind of thinking.

[wmmii]

QUOTE excerpt from FUBeAR to my prior post:

So…your rankings take a forward-looking strength of schedule calculus and you move Teams up if they play a weaker schedule and down if their schedule is tougher?

WMMII response:

Ignoring the criticism and sarcasm in the balance of your prior post, I start with the rankings at the end of last year, adjust for turnover of players and coaches pus the preseason rankings of conference coaches and media to determine the teams current strength against all opponents. Then factor in the probability of wins vs losses on their schedule.

I would rather invest more analysis at the beginning of the season on my expectations for the final season rankings and reward or punish teams for good wins and losses. With my approach, I will hit some home runs plus strike out more.

Each of us have our own approach to voting and I respect the approach others will use.

[FUBeAR]

QUOTE excerpt from FUBeAR to my prior post:

So…your rankings take a forward-looking strength of schedule calculus and you move Teams up if they play a weaker schedule and down if their schedule is tougher?

WMMII response:

Ignoring the criticism and sarcasm in the balance of your prior post, I start with the rankings at the end of last year and then adjust for turnover of players and coaches then look at the preseason rankings of each conference coaches and media to determine the teams current strength against all opponents. Then factor in the probability of wins vs losses on their schedule. would rather invest more analysis at the beginning of the season on my expectations for the final season rankings and then reward or punish teams for good wins and losses. Each of us have our own approach to voting and I respect the approach other use. With my approach, I will hit some home runs plus strike out more.

Cheers.
So … serious inquiry…

You’re not so much attempting to rank the relative quality of the Teams at the point in time that you submit your poll as you are attempting to project the end of season rankings based upon how (you & other) voters will respond to the wins and losses that YOU think will occur vs. the wins and losses that are generally projected / expected for each Team. Is that fair to say?

So…if that’s correct…with an expected loss, a Team would not drop in your weekly poll…and with expected wins, they do not move up. And, since you started out with W&M @ #2, they will stay @ #2 as long as they don’t lose to anyone except Virginia (FUBeAR is assuming you have them at 10-1) and assuming SDSU goes 11-0 (assuming you have the bunnies @ 11-0, as most do).

Do you account for score(s) and score(s)/opponents quality at all?

Let’s say, for example, UVa (Massey #72) beats W&M 77-0 and the score is closer than the game actually looked…but all others W&M games have played out as expected, and at 5-1, W&M is still ‘on track’ to be 10-1. Would they still be your #2?

Meanwhile, Samford your #8 is also 5-1 (games playing out as expected), and they lost, as expected, to Auburn (Massey #26) 57-56 in 3 OT’s. Would they still be your #8?

Above 2 questions also assumes the games for your Teams …

3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Montana State Bobcats
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Holy Cross Crusaders
7: Sac State Hornets

…have all played out as expected thru Week 6 or 7 (whatever it would be).


EDIT: One other serious inquiry....

When FUBeAR looks at your Pre-Season Poll...

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: William & Mary Tribe
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Montana State Bobcats

...it says to FUBeAR, "Welp, poster wmmii thinks William & Mary can beat Montana State (today / on a neutral field)."

But, if FUBeAR is reading your couple of explanations correctly, it doesn't say that at all, does it?

It, instead, says, "Poster wmmii thinks William & Mary is likely to win the games they are supposed to win in 2023 and finish with a 10-1 record while Montana State is more likely to lose one or more of the 4 or 5 games where they are favored, but are playing a ranked Team, probably on the road (besides their SDSU game - that loss is, one would assume, already 'baked into' your ranking), where they face Weber, SacSt, Idaho, and Montana. Massey has them going 7-4, for example, and that's just not as good as a Team that plays in a 'major' FCS Conference, going 10-1 and winning the games they were expected to win."


Yeah - everyone has their own method, but it just seems alien to FUBeAR that one's rankings would NOT reflect that the Voter thinks Team #1 can beat all Teams 2-127, today, on a neutral field and Team #2 can beat all Teams except Team #1, today, on a neutral field.

So, seriously....FUBeAR is just a Bear of very little brain and that just seems like the simplest of axioms in Athletics Rankings to FUBeAR.

[Tribe4SF]

So … serious inquiry…

You’re not so much attempting to rank the relative quality of the Teams at the point in time that you submit your poll as you are attempting to project the end of season rankings based upon how (you & other) voters will respond to the wins and losses that YOU think will occur vs. the wins and losses that are generally projected / expected for each Team. Is that fair to say?

So…if that’s correct…with an expected loss, a Team would not drop in your weekly poll…and with expected wins, they do not move up. And, since you started out with W&M @ #2, they will stay @ #2 as long as they don’t lose to anyone except Virginia (FUBeAR is assuming you have them at 10-1) and assuming SDSU goes 11-0 (assuming you have the bunnies @ 11-0, as most do).

Do you account for score(s) and score(s)/opponents quality at all?

Let’s say, for example, UVa (Massey #72) beats W&M 77-0 and the score is closer than the game actually looked…but all others W&M games have played out as expected, and at 5-1, W&M is still ‘on track’ to be 10-1. Would they still be your #2?

Meanwhile, Samford your #8 is also 5-1 (games playing out as expected), and they lost, as expected, to Auburn (Massey #26) 57-56 in 3 OT’s. Would they still be your #8?

Above 2 questions also assumes the games for your Teams …

3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Montana State Bobcats
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Holy Cross Crusaders
7: Sac State Hornets

…have all played out as expected thru Week 6 or 7 (whatever it would be).


EDIT: One other serious inquiry....

When FUBeAR looks at your Pre-Season Poll...

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: William & Mary Tribe
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: Montana State Bobcats

...it says to FUBeAR, "Welp, poster wmmii thinks William & Mary can beat Montana State (today / on a neutral field)."

But, if FUBeAR is reading your couple of explanations correctly, it doesn't say that at all, does it?

It, instead, says, "Poster wmmii thinks William & Mary is likely to win the games they are supposed to win in 2023 and finish with a 10-1 record while Montana State is more likely to lose one or more of the 4 or 5 games where they are favored, but are playing a ranked Team, probably on the road (besides their SDSU game - that loss is, one would assume, already 'baked into' your ranking), where they face Weber, SacSt, Idaho, and Montana. Massey has them going 7-4, for example, and that's just not as good as a Team that plays in a 'major' FCS Conference, going 10-1 and winning the games they were expected to win."


Yeah - everyone has their own method, but it just seems alien to FUBeAR that one's rankings would NOT reflect that the Voter thinks Team #1 can beat all Teams 2-127, today, on a neutral field and Team #2 can beat all Teams except Team #1, today, on a neutral field.

So, seriously....FUBeAR is just a Bear of very little brain and that just seems like the simplest of axioms in Athletics Rankings to FUBeAR.

FUBear creates straw man so he can maintain his fixation with undeserving W&M. There may be help for you. I can make a referral if you'd like.

[FUBeAR]

FUBear creates straw man so he can maintain his fixation with undeserving W&M. There may be help for you. I can make a referral if you'd like.
Another proponent of the "Inverse Impact of Strength of Future Schedule" ranking methodology?

Is that a required course there in StolenLand FutureSeabedBurg?

[caribbeanhen]

Why aren’t they in yours though since they both beat NC Central? Campbell thoroughly dominated them.

because they lost to many games

simple

[SeattleCat]

Where is all this W&M confidence coming from? 55-7 drubbing in the playoffs? I got bad news for ya, Bobcats return almost their entire team on offense with the addition of healthy RB's and a Wisconsin transfer. Our Oline is bigger, faster and stronger this year and they made your guys give up in the first 15 mins.

[caribbeanhen]

Where is all this W&M confidence coming from? 55-7 drubbing in the playoffs? I got bad news for ya, Bobcats return almost their entire team on offense with the addition of healthy RB's and a Wisconsin transfer. Our Oline is bigger, faster and stronger this year and they made your guys give up in the first 15 mins.

nobody ranked William & Mary over Montana State did they?

Truth be told, FCS has a cerberus problem for it is written in the stars

[MR. CHICKEN]

nobody ranked William & Mary over Montana State did they?

Truth be told, FCS has a cerberus problem for it is written in the stars


....WHO LET DUH DOGS OUT!.............UMMM.....AH LOOKED IT UP........LEARNIN' MOMENT........AWK@

[FUBeAR]

Where is all this W&M confidence coming from? 55-7 drubbing in the playoffs AND also lost to fellow-CAA Team, Elon, that was completely crushed in the Playoff by the SoCon’s runner-up, Furman? I got bad news for ya, Bobcats return almost their entire team on offense with the addition of healthy RB's and a Wisconsin transfer. Our Oline is bigger, faster and stronger this year and they made your guys give up in the first 15 mins.
Augmented Your Post

AYP…maybe?

Seriously, how anyone can have William & Mary ranked ahead of Furman (or Montana State, if that happened) with Furman bringing back almost the whole Team - 19 Starters of 1st 22 and 38 of 44-man 2-deep is just beyond FUBeAR’s mental processing capacity.

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51Xv6SVrIOL._AC_UF1000,1000_QL80_.jpg

[POD Knows]

Where is everybody gonna rank Montana State when SDSU boat races them by 40? 🤔

[FUBeAR]

Where is everybody gonna rank Montana State when SDSU boat races them by 40? 樂

Predict that would be #5 for FUBeAR…and he ‘shows his work’ below…

If FUBeAR were ranking, he might (depending on other developments) still have SDSU @ #1 (assuming the bunnies hop past that Western Oregon D2 juggernaut) and Montana State @ #2 (assuming the bobkitties are able to pad past 4-D1-wins-in-3-seasons, Utah Tech). After that hypothetical loss you frame, FUBeAR would ask himself if MSU could beat SDSU on a neutral field on the day he would ‘submit’ his rankings. That 40 points would indicate the answer would be “No” - unless SDSU lost multiple Players to injury during the contest (or as a result of post game celebrations).

Then, he would say to himself, “Well, FUBeAR, can MSU beat your #3 Team (NDSU, depending on NDSU’s outcomes vs. EWU & Maine) on a neutral field on the day you submit your rankings?” Assuming NDSU has TCB we would likely say “No” and iterate further.

#4 in FUBeAR’s poll is (currently) Furman. So, after Furman defeated TTU on 8/31, they would, most likely stay static. BUT…On 9/9, the day of MSU’s hypothetical 40 point loss to SDSU, Furman be undefeated and will have defeated a ranked/near-ranked FBS P5 SEC Team and, thus will move to #1 in FUBeAR’s rankings, regardless of the SDSU, MSU, and NDSU outcomes.

So, we have to keep going to find MSU’s new level. FUBeAR believes that Samford has reloaded via the portal on Defense and assumes the Bulldogs will have also TCB vs. Shorter and WCU. So, no, sorry Bobcats…gotta keep lookin’ for the right spot. Samford moves to #4.

Here we go. FUBeAR also thinks Incarnate Word reloaded via the portal and had them @#6 to start the season. By 9/9, the Cardinal will have a meh G5 FBS win and have TCB vs. Northern Colorado…but FUBeAR isn’t as sure about this UIW reloading that he thinks they can take MSU on a neutral field. So, in a close decision, FUBeAR will drop MSU here - behind Samford and ahead of Incarnate Word.

Result - FUBeAR’s projected 9/9 rankings given POD’s and FUBeAR’s hypotheticals are realized…

#1 - Furman
#2 - SDSU
#3 - NDSU
#4 - Samford
#5 - Montana State
#6 - Incarnate Word

[POD Knows]

Predict that would be #5 for FUBeAR…and he ‘shows his work’ below…

If FUBeAR were ranking, he might (depending on other developments) still have SDSU @ #1 (assuming the bunnies hop past that Western Oregon D2 juggernaut) and Montana State @ #2 (assuming the bobkitties are able to pad past 4-D1-wins-in-3-seasons, Utah Tech). After that hypothetical loss you frame, FUBeAR would ask himself if MSU could beat SDSU on a neutral field on the day he would ‘submit’ his rankings. That 40 points would indicate the answer would be “No” - unless SDSU lost multiple Players to injury during the contest (or as a result of post game celebrations).

Then, he would say to himself, “Well, FUBeAR, can MSU beat your #3 Team (NDSU, depending on NDSU’s outcomes vs. EWU & Maine) on a neutral field on the day you submit your rankings?” Assuming NDSU has TCB we would likely say “No” and iterate further.

#4 in FUBeAR’s poll is (currently) Furman. So, after Furman defeated TTU on 8/31, they would, most likely stay static. BUT…On 9/9, the day of MSU’s hypothetical 40 point loss to SDSU, Furman be undefeated and will have defeated a ranked/near-ranked FBS P5 SEC Team and, thus will move to #1 in FUBeAR’s rankings, regardless of the SDSU, MSU, and NDSU outcomes.

So, we have to keep going to find MSU’s new level. FUBeAR believes that Samford has reloaded via the portal on Defense and assumes the Bulldogs will have also TCB vs. Shorter and WCU. So, no, sorry Bobcats…gotta keep lookin’ for the right spot. Samford moves to #4.

Here we go. FUBeAR also thinks Incarnate Word reloaded via the portal and had them @#6 to start the season. By 9/9, the Cardinal will have a meh G5 FBS win and have TCB vs. Northern Colorado…but FUBeAR isn’t as sure about this UIW reloading that he thinks they can take MSU on a neutral field. So, in a close decision, FUBeAR will drop MSU here - behind Samford and ahead of Incarnate Word.

Result - FUBeAR’s projected 9/9 rankings given POD’s and FUBeAR’s hypotheticals are realized…

#1 - Furman
#2 - SDSU
#3 - NDSU
#4 - Samford
#5 - Montana State
#6 - Incarnate Word
SDSU would beat Fur Man by 35 on a neutral field, SDSU, barring wholesale injuries, is 2 to 3 TD's better than anybody in the country right now, including NDSU and the whole of the SoCon. Bookit

[FUBeAR]

SDSU would beat Fur Man by 35 on a neutral field, SDSU, barring wholesale injuries, is 2 to 3 TD's better than anybody in the country right now, including NDSU and the whole of the SoCon. Bookit
…and you would say that after Furman had defeated a ranked/nearly-ranked P5 FBS SEC Team?

Apparently, your answer would be yes - which just proves FUBeAR’s point about how FCS Voters currently ‘believe’ in preserving Status Quo above facts / results - which led to the lunacy of 10-1 ETSU with a P5 FBS SEC win being a 7-Seed and 10-1 with only loss to 2-time FBS Nat’l Champion Samford being a 6-Seed which, via structural determinism, directly led to ‘desired’ outcomes.

So, assuming you would still have SDSU ahead of Furman after Furman beat South Carolina, where would you rank SDSU in the SEC - ahead of or just behind Georgia?

[nodak651]

SDSU would beat Fur Man by 35 on a neutral field, SDSU, barring wholesale injuries, is 2 to 3 TD's better than anybody in the country right now, including NDSU and the whole of the SoCon. Bookit
I get where you're coming from, but I guarantee you SDSU will play multiple games within 13 points or less.

Last year they won two games by 2 points - NDSU and UC Davis. They beat UNI by only 3 points. UND and Missouri State were also 2 td games where SDSU was either tied or losing in the 3rd quarter.

SDSU isn't unbeatable.

[caribbeanhen]

....WHO LET DUH DOGS OUT!.............UMMM.....AH LOOKED IT UP........LEARNIN' MOMENT........AWK@

I just googled 3 headed beast and came up with that

because that’s what FCS is

[POD Knows]

I get where you're coming from, but I guarantee you SDSU will play multiple games within 13 points or less.

Last year they won two games by 2 points - NDSU and UC Davis. They beat UNI by only 3 points. UND and Missouri State were also 2 td games where SDSU was either tied or losing in the 3rd quarter.

SDSU isn't unbeatable.
SDSU is gonna be a lot better this year than they were last year. Again, it is football and if their QB goes down or they lose a RB or two it is a different story. They might have a couple games that are low double digit wins but I bet their average margin of victory is between 20 and 30 a game. It wouldn’t surprise me if they beat MSU by 4 or 5 TDS and I think the Bobcats might be a little better this year as well. The way SDSU absolutely curb stomped NDSU in Frisco last January was an eye opener to the gap between them and the rest of the field. They walked through the playoff for the most part and almost all of that team is back.

[KPSUL]

…and you would say that after Furman had defeated a ranked/nearly-ranked P5 FBS SEC Team?

Apparently, your answer would be yes - which just proves FUBeAR’s point about how FCS Voters currently ‘believe’ in preserving Status Quo above facts / results - which led to the lunacy of 10-1 ETSU with a P5 FBS SEC win being a 7-Seed and 10-1 with only loss to 2-time FBS Nat’l Champion Samford being a 6-Seed which, via structural determinism, directly led to ‘desired’ outcomes.

So, assuming you would still have SDSU ahead of Furman after Furman beat South Carolina, where would you rank SDSU in the SEC - ahead of or just behind Georgia?

In your opinion, how likely is Furman beating South Carolina?

You have a better feel for Furman's potential in 2023, but I'd put the probability a little less than 0.1, no worse than any top FCS team's chances short of SDSU.

As you indicate, South Carolina is considered to be a possible Top25 FBS team this season. This is not the team that lost to The Citadel when Mike Houston was coaching the Bulldogs.

[FUBeAR]

In your opinion, how likely is Furman beating South Carolina?

You have a better feel for Furman's potential in 2023, but I'd put the probability a little less than 0.1, no worse than any top FCS team's chances short of SDSU.

As you indicate, South Carolina is considered to be a possible Top25 FBS team this season. This is not the team that lost to The Citadel when Mike Houston was coaching the Bulldogs.
Well - we think this Furman Team is considerably better than the Furman Team that went into Clemson last year and outplayed, but failed to outscore, the #5 Team in FBS.

Furman will NOT be intimidated, but they will be a bit ‘out-athleted’ in some (but certainly not all) of the matchups. And, as always, we will be ‘out-depthed’ in any FBS game. On the other hand, Furman will not sneak up on the Cocks. Their Coaches will be showing their Players the FU @ Clemson film to show them that these FCS kids can play. Who knows, maybe their Coaches will dig into the archives and show ‘em when FUBeAR’s ‘82 Furman Team went into Willams-Brice Stadium and just whipped their a$$e$.

On the 3rd hand, Furman catches the Cocks between 2 Rivalry Road(ish) games - vs. UNC in Charlotte and @ Georgia.

We’ll need to have some breaks go our way. We’ll need to not have Special Teams breakdowns - that’s where being out-athleted can bite your a$$ the most & the quickest. We’ll need to at least break even in turnovers. And, we’ll need to hang around and ‘steal it’ late…most likely.

Is your number 10%, 1%, .1%, or .01%??? FUBeAR won’t put a number on it, but he’ll say it’s a lot closer to 10% than .01%.

FUBeAR will be attending, and hopefully on the sidelines, as he and his ‘82 Teammates are being (internally) celebrated by FU Football. FUBeAR will be expecting to celebrate post-game and he will head into the stadium exactly as he and his Teammates did in ‘82 - EXPECTING to win!

[KPSUL]

Well - we think this Furman Team is considerably better than the Furman Team that went into Clemson last year and outplayed, but failed to outscore, the #5 Team in FBS.

Furman will NOT be intimidated, but they will be a bit ‘out-athleted’ in some (but certainly not all) of the matchups. And, as always, we will be ‘out-depthed’ in any FBS game. On the other hand, Furman will not sneak up on the Cocks. Their Coaches will be showing their Players the FU @ Clemson film to show them that these FCS kids can play. Who knows, maybe their Coaches will dig into the archives and show ‘em when FUBeAR’s ‘82 Furman Team went into Willams-Brice Stadium and just whipped their a$$e$.

On the 3rd hand, Furman catches the Cocks between 2 Rivalry Road(ish) games - vs. UNC in Charlotte and @ Georgia.

We’ll need to have some breaks go our way. We’ll need to not have Special Teams breakdowns - that’s where being out-athleted can bite your a$$ the most & the quickest. We’ll need to at least break even in turnovers. And, we’ll need to hang around and ‘steal it’ late…most likely.

Is your number 10%, 1%, .1%, or .01%??? FUBeAR won’t put a number on it, but he’ll say it’s a lot closer to 10% than .01%.

FUBeAR will be attending, and hopefully on the sidelines, as he and his ‘82 Teammates are being (internally) celebrated by FU Football. FUBeAR will be expecting to celebrate post-game and he will head into the stadium exactly as he and his Teammates did in ‘82 - EXPECTING to win!

Well it should be a good one to watch. My guestimate of a probability of a little less than 0.1 is in your ballpark. A probability of 0.1 is the same as a 10% chance. Enjoy the reunion with your teammates and good luck on Sept. 9th!

[Gil Dobie]

South Carolina is an ok team. A FCS win would not propel a FCS school to #1 with a win. Good win, but not a world beater.

[FUBeAR]

South Carolina is an ok team. A FCS (sic) win would not propel a FCS school to #1 with a win. Good win, but not a world beater.
South Carolina has been ranked as high as #12 in recent FBS College Football Rankings https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/college-football-rankings-1-to-131-2022-final-overall-and-conference

Since 1978, FCS Teams have defeated Ranked FBS Teams only 6 times…5 really (see last bullet below). No FCS Team has EVER defeated a Ranked SEC Team.

* When Montana defeated #20 Washington in 2021, the Griz moved up 5 slots in FCS Rankings, receiving 5 1st place votes, up from 0 in the prior week

* NDSU was already ranked #1 when the bizuns defeated #13 Iowa in 2016

* Eastern Washington beat #25 Oregon State in 2013 and moved to #2 in FCS Rankings receiving 7 votes for 1st place, up from 0 the prior week

* In 2010, JMU beat #13 Virginia Tech and moved up 9 slots in FCS Rankings receiving 30 votes for 1st place, up from 0 the prior week

* Appy beat #7 Michigan in 2007, but was already #1

* In 1983 I-AA Cincinnati beat #20 Penn State. 4-6-1 Cincy was classified as I-AA and was Independent in 1983, playing an all I-A schedule. They were I-A in ‘82 and ‘84. There were lawsuits, etc. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1aaCincinnati.jpg - As the Penn State win was their 1st game and the Bearcats never appear in the 1983 Playoff Committee’s I-AA Rankings, FUBeAR would surmise they were not eligible for Ranking/Playoffs. This game probably shouldn’t even be counted as 1 of the 6 games relevant to this topic.

Bottom Line - (Hypothetically) moving Furman up 2 or 3 slots in the FUBeAR Rankings after the Paladins (hypothetically) defeat a (hypothetically) Ranked FBS SEC Team certainly seems to bear solid precedents for doing so…despite your baseless claim…just another baseless claim of yours. We’ll add it to the ever-lengthening list.

Hopefully, you are not an AGS (or any other Poll) voter as facts should matter to voters.

[caribbeanhen]

Well there was no FCS in 1977 but Division 2 Delaware made Division 1 and nationally ranked Colgate a loser on a bitter cold day in Delaware Stadium

[FUBeAR]

Well it should be a good one to watch. My guestimate of a probability of a little less than 0.1 is in your ballpark. A probability of 0.1 is the same as a 10% chance. Enjoy the reunion with your teammates and good luck on Sept. 9th!
Thanks - 10% is fair for a Top-Tier FCS vs. SEC Team. Most FCS Teams have .01% chance against most SEC Teams in most years.

Forgot to mention it’s a night game. Though it will be a little cooler in the hottest place on the planet (Columbia, SC is the hottest place on the planet - ask anyone who’s lived there, as FUBeAR has), USC is known to be tough(er) at night. Maybe it’s the whole 2001 Space Odyssey/ Sandstorm thing they do being more amped at night. Their fans, widely known for being stupidly drunk almost all the time, will surely not let that reputation be sullied at a Sept. night game.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_n0b9Pe_WQ

Taking the ball 80 yards in 6 plays, all on the ground, late in the 4th quarter to clinch the win…into THAT Endzone, which was exactly like that pre-game, was so much fun…41 years ago.
https://i.postimg.cc/PrXxRzGj/IMG-0587.jpg
Hope we can do it again, but FUBeAR guarantees the ‘82 Furman Team will have A TON OF FUN…regardless of the outcome / score. We’re really good at having fun.

[ElCid]

Thanks - 10% is fair for an FCS vs. SEC Team.

Forgot to mention it’s a night game. Though it will be a little cooler in the hottest place on the planet (Columbia, SC is the hottest place on the planet - ask anyone who’s lived there, as FUBeAR has), USC is known to be tough(er) at night. Maybe it’s the whole 2001 Space Odyssey/ Sandstorm thing they do being more amped at night. Their fans, also are widely known for being stupidly drunk almost all the time will surely not let that reputation be sullied at a Sept. night game.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_n0b9Pe_WQ

Taking the ball 80 yards in 6 plays, all on the ground, late in the 4th quarter to clinch the win…into THAT Endzone, which was exactly like that pre-game, was so much fun…41 years ago.
https://i.postimg.cc/PrXxRzGj/IMG-0587.jpg
Hope we can do it again, but FUBeAR guarantees we will have A TON OF FUN…regardless of the outcome / score. We’re really good at having fun.

Hottest place? Middle Georgia can give them a run for their money. Eek. Spent too many hot summers in Houston county.

And for it's worth it would be a "consider 1st place votes" kind of win. Pretty sure the Cocks will be ready though. Like any FCS/FBS game between decent teams, it could be close or a blow out. Just depends on a huge number of factors. Sometimes game just gets away from you.

[crusader11]

BEAR, saw that your former coach, Dick Sheridan, passed away a month or so ago. Seems like he was a terrific coach. RIP.

[FUBeAR]

BEAR, saw that your former coach, Dick Sheridan, passed away a month or so ago. Seems like he was a terrific coach. RIP.
Thanks for mentioning Coach Sheridan. He was THE BEST. Well-deserved College Football Hall of Famer. https://footballfoundation.org/news/2023/7/7/football-hall-of-famer-dick-sheridan-passes-away.aspx

Wouldn’t be called a “Player’s Coach” in today’s world and FUBeAR sure didn’t love every minute of playing for him or Coaching under him (3 hour practices with 0 wasted seconds were the standard), but he pulled the absolute best out of every Player and every Team he ever Coached. Without being a raving maniac, he settled for nothing less than perfect execution and maximum effort. If you just weren’t good enough, he viewed it as his job was to make you better. Your jobs were to give 100% in everything you did and execute (mentally & technique-wise) with perfection, or at least getting better / closer to perfection with every rep. Always said he knew he couldn’t always have the the best Players, but he said he preferred the Players who played the best anyway. Subtle, but meaningful difference there.

And he truly cared about his Players and Coaches. Several hundred former Paladins and Wolfpackers attended his Celebration of Life ceremony. By the way, he was a Gamecock Alum and that ‘82 upset meant a lot to him. He’s in a better place to influence the ‘23 game now. Maybe he’ll find a way to do some of that angel stuff on behalf of the boys wearing purple.

https://i.postimg.cc/7P2WtVfQ/IMG-0646.jpg

[crusader11]

Thanks for mentioning Coach Sheridan. He was THE BEST. Well-deserved College Football Hall of Famer. https://footballfoundation.org/news/2023/7/7/football-hall-of-famer-dick-sheridan-passes-away.aspx

Wouldn’t be called a “Player’s Coach” in today’s world and FUBeAR sure didn’t love every minute of playing for him or Coaching under him (3 hour practices with 0 wasted seconds were the standard), but he pulled the absolute best out of every Player and every Team he ever Coached.


That was a good staff in the early 80s! Lots of future head coaches.

Jimmy Satterfield - Furman head coach (assume there is a connection with Scott Satterfield?)
Bobby Johnson - Furman and Vanderbilt head coach
Ted Cain - VMI
Robbie Caldwell - Vanderbilt for a hot minute
John Perry - Presbyterian

Interesting that Furman, over the years, have really hired their head coaches from within the Furman family.

[FUBeAR]

That was a good staff in the early 80s! Lots of future head coaches.

Jimmy Satterfield - Furman head coach (assume there is a connection with Scott Satterfield?)
Bobby Johnson - Furman and Vanderbilt head coach
Ted Cain - VMI
Robbie Caldwell - Vanderbilt for a hot minute
John Perry - Presbyterian

Interesting that Furman, over the years, have really hired their head coaches from within the Furman family.
Don’t think there is any connection between those 2 Satterfields.

John Perry was also the Head Coach @ D2 Lenoir-Rhyne - let FUBeAR use his Players up there as Test Subjects for a Grad School project on Leadership Styles. Nice guy.

We also had Eric Hyman on that Staff as DL Coach - Later AD @ VMI, Miami (OH), TCU, South Carolina, and Texas A&M

Also…Art Baker as Head Coach @ FU and Eddie Williamson OL Coach recruited FUBeAR, but they were smart enough to leave after FUBeAR signed, but before he arrived on Campus. Baker moved to HC @ The Citadel and later East Carolina. Williamson was later also a VMI Head Coach.

Steve Patton was a GA when FUBeAR arrived and he was HC @ Gardner-Webb for 14 seasons.

it’s been a fruitful tree that was planted when Furman hired Art Baker from Texas Tech in ‘72.

And - yes - since Baker arrived in ‘72, all Furman Head Coaches have been FU guys…

* Baker (PC Alum) (FU HC ‘73-‘77) originally hired…
***Sheridan (USC Alum) (Start @ FU ‘73 / HC ‘78-‘85),
***Satterfield (USC Alum)(Start @ FU ‘73 / HC ‘86-‘93), and
***Johnson (Clemson Alum) (Start @ FU ‘76 / HC ‘94-‘01).
**Sheridan originally (recruited &) hired…
****Bobby Lamb (Start @ FU Player ‘82 / Coach ‘86 / HC ‘02-‘10),
****Bruce Fowler (Start @ FU Player ‘77 / Coach ‘84 / HC ‘11-‘16), and
****Clay Hendrix (Start @ FU Player ‘82 / Coach ‘88 / HC ‘17-Present)

The latter 3 all were FUBeAR’s Teammates…and Hendrix recruited FUBeAR Jr. to Air Force before FUBeAR Jr. transferred and played for Lamb @ Mercer.

We Paladins are kinda insular, huh?
https://i.postimg.cc/Rht0hVcm/IMG-0647.jpg

[crusader11]

And all were successful with the exception of Fowler. What was the reason he didn't get it done, but everyone going back to Bob King did?

[FUBeAR]

And all were successful with the exception of Fowler. What was the reason he didn't get it done, but everyone going back to Bob King did?
Coach King - jeez - you are quite the historian, Cru…might have to remove you from FUBeAR’s ignore list…until the Playoffs, at least.

Things change…Admin (Univ. and Athletics) changes and financial changes affect outcomes at FCS Football programs.

Coach Fowler, his wife (also a FUBeAR classmate), and family are all outstanding human beings. If FUBeAR ever has any 2-legged grandchildren instead of these 2 (soon to be 3) 4-legged ones that FUBeAR Jr. And LittleMiss FUBeAR keep giving him, he couldn’t be more pleased and honored to have Coach Fowler be his grandson’s or granddaughter’s Coach at any level of Football or any sport.

[Gil Dobie]

South Carolina has been ranked as high as #12 in recent FBS College Football Rankings https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/college-football-rankings-1-to-131-2022-final-overall-and-conference

Since 1978, FCS Teams have defeated Ranked FBS Teams only 6 times…5 really (see last bullet below). No FCS Team has EVER defeated a Ranked SEC Team.

* When Montana defeated #20 Washington in 2021, the Griz moved up 5 slots in FCS Rankings, receiving 5 1st place votes, up from 0 in the prior week

* NDSU was already ranked #1 when the bizuns defeated #13 Iowa in 2016

* Eastern Washington beat #25 Oregon State in 2013 and moved to #2 in FCS Rankings receiving 7 votes for 1st place, up from 0 the prior week

* In 2010, JMU beat #13 Virginia Tech and moved up 9 slots in FCS Rankings receiving 30 votes for 1st place, up from 0 the prior week

* Appy beat #7 Michigan in 2007, but was already #1

* In 1983 I-AA Cincinnati beat #20 Penn State. 4-6-1 Cincy was classified as I-AA and was Independent in 1983, playing an all I-A schedule. They were I-A in ‘82 and ‘84. There were lawsuits, etc. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1aaCincinnati.jpg - As the Penn State win was their 1st game and the Bearcats never appear in the 1983 Playoff Committee’s I-AA Rankings, FUBeAR would surmise they were not eligible for Ranking/Playoffs. This game probably shouldn’t even be counted as 1 of the 6 games relevant to this topic.

Bottom Line - (Hypothetically) moving Furman up 2 or 3 slots in the FUBeAR Rankings after the Paladins (hypothetically) defeat a (hypothetically) Ranked FBS SEC Team certainly seems to bear solid precedents for doing so…despite your baseless claim…just another baseless claim of yours. We’ll add it to the ever-lengthening list.

Hopefully, you are not an AGS (or any other Poll) voter as facts should matter to voters.

I did find a minor poll where S Carolina was ranked 25. I'll be happy for AGSer Ol FU if Furman wins. I'm sure FUBear will still be campaigning for Furman to be #1.

[FUBeAR]

I did find a minor poll where S Carolina was ranked 25.

#23 - https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll
#27 - https://www.afca.com/polls/ - If South Carolina defeats #20 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will be ranked in the Top 25 in this poll.
#19 - https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx
#12 - https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/college-football-rankings-1-to-131-2022-final-overall-and-conference
#29 - https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/cbs-sports-rankings/ - If South Carolina defeats #20 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will be ranked in the Top 25 in this poll.
#21 - https://247sports.com/longformarticle/college-football-rankings-way-too-early-top-25-for-2023-season-202467328/#2083571
#25 - https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-way-too-early-top-25-rankings-for-2023 - If South Carolina defeats #19 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will move up in this poll.
#20 - https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-rankings-georgia-michigan-ohio-state-lead-post-spring-top-25-ahead-of-2023-season/ - If South Carolina defeats #19 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will move up in this poll.
#25 - https://sportsnaut.com/college-football-rankings/ - If South Carolina defeats #17 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will move up in this poll.

Why do you persist in contesting matters of fact with FUBeAR?

Best to stick with repeatedly espousing and defending your subjective, so-often-off-off-off-base opinions.



UPDATE: Oh look, NCAA.com is a loyal FUBeAR reader…

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-08-10/25-potential-fcs-over-fbs-upsets-2023
STAN BECTON | NCAA.COM | AUGUST 10, 2023
25 potential FCS-over-FBS upsets in 2023

Potential ranked upsets
There have been six FCS upsets over ranked FBS teams all-time. Here's a look at some potential ranked upsets in 2023. Of course, the AP poll hasn't been released yet, so the rankings listed are using the FBS Coaches' Poll, or projecting a potential ranked team.


Mercer at No. 22 Ole Miss | Week 1
Southeast Missouri State at No. 17 Kansas State | Week 1
Austin Peay at No. 10 Tennessee | Week 2
UC Davis at No. 18 Oregon State | Week 2
Furman at South Carolina | Week 2

[Gil Dobie]

A lot of candy and nuts.

[SeattleCat]

#23 - https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll
#27 - https://www.afca.com/polls/ - If South Carolina defeats #20 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will be ranked in the Top 25 in this poll.
#19 - https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx
#12 - https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/college-football-rankings-1-to-131-2022-final-overall-and-conference
#29 - https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/cbs-sports-rankings/ - If South Carolina defeats #20 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will be ranked in the Top 25 in this poll.
#21 - https://247sports.com/longformarticle/college-football-rankings-way-too-early-top-25-for-2023-season-202467328/#2083571
#25 - https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-way-too-early-top-25-rankings-for-2023 - If South Carolina defeats #19 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will move up in this poll.
#20 - https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-rankings-georgia-michigan-ohio-state-lead-post-spring-top-25-ahead-of-2023-season/ - If South Carolina defeats #19 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will move up in this poll.
#25 - https://sportsnaut.com/college-football-rankings/ - If South Carolina defeats #17 UNC the week before they play Furman, they will move up in this poll.

Why do you persist in contesting matters of fact with FUBeAR?

Best to stick with repeatedly espousing and defending your subjective, so-often-off-off-off-base opinions.



UPDATE: Oh look, NCAA.com is a loyal FUBeAR reader…

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-08-10/25-potential-fcs-over-fbs-upsets-2023
STAN BECTON | NCAA.COM | AUGUST 10, 2023
25 potential FCS-over-FBS upsets in 2023

Potential ranked upsets
There have been six FCS upsets over ranked FBS teams all-time. Here's a look at some potential ranked upsets in 2023. Of course, the AP poll hasn't been released yet, so the rankings listed are using the FBS Coaches' Poll, or projecting a potential ranked team.


Mercer at No. 22 Ole Miss | Week 1
Southeast Missouri State at No. 17 Kansas State | Week 1
Austin Peay at No. 10 Tennessee | Week 2
UC Davis at No. 18 Oregon State | Week 2
Furman at South Carolina | Week 2



FCS goes 0-5 in those games, I highly doubt any of them are even competitive.

[FUBeAR]

A lot of candy and nuts.
Ranked in 7 polls, Near-Ranked in 2.

You have to be really trying hard to be as much of an idiot as you appear to be.

[FUBeAR]

FCS goes 0-5 in those games, I highly doubt any of them are even competitive.
Welp, since 3 of the 5 are against ranked SEC Teams and no FCS Team has defeated a Ranked SEC Team in 45 years of trying, your prediction isn’t exactly pushing the envelope.

The point of posting that information was to demonstrate to a nankering naysayer that South Carolina is generally expected to be a ranked FBS Team in 2023, and, as a ‘bonus’ that at least 1 pundit gives the Paladins at least some chance of pulling the upset.

[SeattleCat]

Welp, since 3 of the 5 are against ranked SEC Teams and no FCS Team has defeated a Ranked SEC Team in 45 years of trying, your prediction isn’t exactly pushing the envelope.

The point of posting that information was to demonstrate to a nankering naysayer that South Carolina is generally expected to be a ranked FBS Team in 2023, and, as a ‘bonus’ that at least 1 pundit gives the Paladins at least some chance of pulling the upset.

Not dogging on Furman, but that game is over after the first half. Not sure what this pundit is looking at but I don't see how he came up with those upsets, but if I had to pick an upset out of those five it would probably be Furman. The other 4 games are going to be absolute blood baths.

[FUBeAR]

Not dogging on Furman, but that game is over after the first half. Not sure what this pundit is looking at but I don't see how he came up with those upsets, but if I had to pick an upset out of those five it would probably be Furman. The other 4 games are going to be absolute blood baths.
Maybe he’s looking at what, essentially, this same group of Players did vs. FBS #5 last Fall…



Team Stats
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/231.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/228.png&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin&w=40&h=40


1st Downs
19
22


3rd down efficiency
10-18
5-10


4th down efficiency
0-2
1-1


Total Yards
384
376


Passing
259
229


Comp-Att
31-40
22-31


Yards per pass
6.5
7.4


Interceptions thrown
1
1


Rushing
125
147


Rushing Attempts
34
28


Yards per rush
3.75
5.3


Penalties
7-64
6-45


Turnovers
2
2


Fumbles lost
1
1


Possession
34:45
25:15



Convert “outplaying” #5 into “outscoring” #25 (or so) and it’s not that hard to give the Paladins a Fightin’ chance in this matchup.

[uni88]

Ranked in 7 polls, Near-Ranked in 2.

You have to be really trying hard to be as much of an idiot as you appear to be.

What if they lose to NC?

[FUBeAR]

What if they lose to NC?
Are we now allowed to use the word “IF” when projecting Football outcomes?

Assuming we are, IF they lose a close hard-fought game to UNC, depending on more “IF’s” the outcomes of other games for ranked and near-ranked Teams, and depending upon where UNC AND where South Carolina were both ranked pre-game, an 0-1 South Carolina Team could very well still be ranked when they play Furman on 9/9. They will not be ranked after Furman defeats them.

[uni88]

Are we now allowed to use the word “IF” when projecting Football outcomes?

Assuming we are, IF they lose a close hard-fought game to UNC, depending on more “IF’s” the outcomes of other games for ranked and near-ranked Teams, and depending upon where UNC AND where South Carolina were both ranked pre-game, an 0-1 South Carolina Team could very well still be ranked when they play Furman on 9/9. They will not be ranked after Furman defeats them.

If SC beats NC was a big part of your post so it's fair to ask what if they don't.

You're adding more subjective candy and nuts to your argument with the "if they lose a close hard-fought game to UNC" qualifier. Yes, that could make a difference. There are other if's and but's to be considered like location of the game that could have an impact.

Their average ranking in the polls you listed is 22/23 so my guess is that they aren't ranked in any major poll if they lose to NC.

[FUBeAR]

If SC beats NC was a big part of your post so it's fair to ask what if they don't.

There are other if's and but's to be considered like location of the game that could have an impact.

Their average ranking in the polls you listed is 22/23 so my guess is that they aren't ranked in any major poll if they lose to NC.
IF the world is not destroyed by a meteor…or
IF TMFINR in the back of the plane doesn’t abduct/eat us…or
IF a pandemic doesn’t break out in the next 4 weeks which cancels the Football season…

…also, all, are a big part of the premise that the UNC vs. USC game in Charlotte, NC will be played on 9/2/23. Those events, along with USC defeating UNC or losing in a manner/ranking structures to maintain a ranking (which is possible despite your conjecture) are tacitly stipulated, as most reasonable people would conclude, as opposed to seeking to parse, really, an unlimited number of IF’s.

The simple point, for readers that have become distracted by these supercilious, contrarian for the sake of being contrarian posts…

…a reasonable poll voter, who has Furman ranked in their Top 3 or 4, would be completely justified to move Furman to #1 IF that Furman Team becomes the 1st-ever FCS Team to defeat a ranked SEC FBS Team, regardless of the outcomes of the scheduled games of the 2 or 3 specific Teams (SDSU, MontSt, NDSU - we know, at least 1 of these 3 will have at least 1 FCS loss by 9/10) the voter had ranked ahead of Furman prior to the Paladins whipping the Gamecocks.

Moving from that simple point to dissecting whether or not South Carolina will be ranked on 9/9 just seems rather obtuse.

[uni88]

IF the world is not destroyed by a meteor…or
IF TMFINR in the back of the plane doesn’t abduct/eat us…or
IF a pandemic doesn’t break out in the next 4 weeks which cancels the Football season…

…also, all, are a big part of the premise that the UNC vs. USC game in Charlotte, NC will be played on 9/2/23. Those events, along with USC defeating UNC or losing in a manner/ranking structures to maintain a ranking (which is possible despite your conjecture) are tacitly stipulated, as most reasonable people would conclude, as opposed to seeking to parse, really, an unlimited number of IF’s.

The simple point, for readers that have become distracted by these supercilious, contrarian for the sake of being contrarian posts…

…a reasonable poll voter, who has Furman ranked in their Top 3 or 4, would be completely justified to move Furman to #1 IF that Furman Team becomes the 1st-ever FCS Team to defeat a ranked SEC FBS Team, regardless of the outcomes of the scheduled games of the 2 or 3 specific Teams (SDSU, MontSt, NDSU - we know, at least 1 of these 3 will have at least 1 FCS loss by 9/10) the voter had ranked ahead of Furman prior to the Paladins whipping the Gamecocks.

Moving from that simple point to dissecting whether or not South Carolina will be ranked on 9/9 just seems rather obtuse.

If "dissecting whether or not South Carolina will be ranked on 9/9" is rather obtuse than isn't speculating about what will happen if Furman beats a ranked SC rather premature?

This is a sports message board. We debate obtuse things and we're all subjective, even you though you cloak it by cheery picking stats, polls, etc. that support your opinions. xpeacex

[FUBeAR]

If "dissecting whether or not South Carolina will be ranked on 9/9" is rather obtuse than isn't speculating about what will happen if Furman beats a ranked SC rather premature?

This is a sports message board. We debate obtuse things and we're all subjective, even you though you cloak it by cheery picking stats, polls, etc. that support your opinions. xpeacex
Yeah - using data to elucidate one’s assertions is just not playing fair. FUBeAR will try to be more subjective so he can ‘fit in’ better in the future.

PREmature in a PREseason discussion? Hmm…that seems rather counterintuitive.

No idea what it means to “debate obtuse things.” Being obtuse means being dull, dim, not sharp in perception. And it implies that one is, annoyingly, pretending to be dull, dim, not sharp in perception. Asking “what IF Furman loses to Tennessee Tech?” would be equally obtuse, for example.

Hold on…maybe FUBeAR is giving you and Gil too much credit. 🤔

[MSUBobcat]

Yeah - using data to elucidate one’s assertions is just not playing fair. FUBeAR will try to be more subjective so he can ‘fit in’ better in the future.

PREmature in a PREseason discussion? Hmm…that seems rather counterintuitive.

No idea what it means to “debate obtuse things.” Being obtuse means being dull, dim, not sharp in perception. And it implies that one is, annoyingly, pretending to be dull, dim, not sharp in perception. Asking “what IF Furman loses to Tennessee Tech?” would be equally obtuse, for example.

Hold on…maybe FUBeAR is giving you and Gil too much credit. 樂

Why would asking "what if Furman loses to Tenn Tech?" be any more obtuse than asking "what if Furman beats USC?"? Massey gives the Dins a 1% better chance to beat the Cocks than it gives the G'Eagles, with the exact same score prediction.

[uni88]

Yeah - using data to elucidate one’s assertions is just not playing fair. FUBeAR will try to be more subjective so he can ‘fit in’ better in the future.

PREmature in a PREseason discussion? Hmm…that seems rather counterintuitive.

No idea what it means to “debate obtuse things.” Being obtuse means being dull, dim, not sharp in perception. And it implies that one is, annoyingly, pretending to be dull, dim, not sharp in perception. Asking “what IF Furman loses to Tennessee Tech?” would be equally obtuse, for example.

Hold on…maybe FUBeAR is giving you and Gil too much credit. 樂

Maybe I should have posted that we debate stupid things rather than obtuse things. Regardless, this debate is just as obtuse as asking:
- what if Furman loses to Tennessee Tech?
- what if NC beats SC?
- will SC be ranked on 9/9?
- what if SC beats NC and Furman beats SC?

For some reason, you seem to think the last one is not obtuse while the others are.

[uni88]

Why would asking "what if Furman loses to Tenn Tech?" be any more obtuse than asking "what if Furman beats USC?"? Massey gives the Dins a 1% better chance to beat the Cocks than it gives the G'Eagles, with the exact same score prediction.

Nice use of data (Massey) to elucidate your question.

[FUBeAR]

Why would asking "what if Furman loses to Tenn Tech?" be any more obtuse than asking "what if Furman beats USC?"? Massey gives the Dins a 1% better chance to beat the Cocks than it gives the G'Eagles, with the exact same score prediction.
In your rush to join up with your MVFC/Big Sky Football Alliance brethren, you missed the point FUBeAR made, sadly, rendering your use of data meaningless.

FUBeAR’s was equating “What if TTU beats Furman?” to Uni88’s post #151…
What if they [tacitly referring to South Carolina] lose to NC?

…those are nearly equally obtuse. The premise, more or less, tacitly accepts certain events happening or not happening, such as TMFINR in the back of the plane not eating all of us. To obfuscate the original assertion via quibbling is just obtuse.

[FUBeAR]

Nice use of data (Massey) to elucidate your question.
Yes - if only the question had been in sync with the conversation. Oh RATS!

[FUBeAR]

Maybe I should have posted that we debate stupid things rather than obtuse things. Regardless, this debate is just as obtuse as asking:
- what if Furman loses to Tennessee Tech?
- what if NC beats SC?
- will SC be ranked on 9/9?
- what if SC beats NC and Furman beats SC?

For some reason, you seem to think the last one is not obtuse while the others are.
Fully agree on the characterization of “debating stupid thing.” How could FUBeAR NOT agree with that?

Discussing where someone might conclude to rank a Team after Week 2, in the event of a specific outcome, in a thread based upon Week 0 Poll Results, is not obtuse, and, of course, requires some measures of speculation and, as noted in FUBeAR’s earlier post, a willingness to tacitly accept certain events will or won’t happen.

Attempting to quibble with the conclusion by removing the necessary, yet tacit, underpinnings is being obtuse.

Asking “what if TTU beats Furman?” is absolutely & entirely obtuse.
Asking “what if NC beats SC?” is nearly as obtuse.
Asking “will SC be ranked on 9/9?” is certainly a valid question. Contesting that they will, or could be, after learning that, in fact, it is a distinct possibility, is obtuse.

No one asked the final question(s) you cited. FUBeAR asserted what he, and IFBO, reasonable, objective voters would do if Furman becomes the only FCS Team to ever defeat a Ranked SEC Team, and if the reasonable voters had Furman ranked in the Top 3 or 4 of their post-9/2 polls.

Obviously, if Furman loses to TTU on 8/31, they will be ranked #3 or #4 in no reasonable voters’ rankings. See why that question is absolutely obtuse?

“What is SC loses to NC?” is less obtuse (in actuality, if not in intent) because, as FUBeAR described, it is possible that SC could be ranked even if they lose to NC. If you didn’t think so, which 2 posts later, you indicated that did not, then, asking the question is actually equally obtuse.

Not being obtuse, but still being in disagreement, would go something like this…

“FUBeAR, you f’in moron, I ain’t sure that I agree with your premise that SC will be ranked on 9/9, but, if they are, and your purple pansies somehow luck out and win (which they will not … not a chance in Hades!), I disagree that I should move them to #1…even if I did have them at #3 or #4, which I would NOT. Heck, I don’t have a single SoCon school ranked in my Top 100. But…if they were #4…for some reason, here’s why I wouldn’t even consider moving them ahead of NDSU, SDSU, and/or MontSt…blahReason1, blahReason2, blahReason3, etc, etc, etc.”

That’s not obtuse. Obnoxious, maybe. Dead wrong? Of course….but not obtuse.

https://media.tenor.com/UGglViCURtIAAAAC/savvy-captain-jack-sparrow.gif

[uni88]

Fully agree on the characterization of “debating stupid thing.” How could FUBeAR NOT agree with that?

Discussing where someone might conclude to rank a Team after Week 2, in the event of a specific outcome, in a thread based upon Week 0 Poll Results, is not obtuse, and, of course, requires some measures of speculation and, as noted in FUBeAR’s earlier post, a willingness to tacitly accept certain events will or won’t happen.

Attempting to quibble with the conclusion by removing the necessary, yet tacit, underpinnings is being obtuse.

Asking “what if TTU beats Furman?” is absolutely & entirely obtuse.
Asking “what if NC beats SC?” is nearly as obtuse.
Asking “will SC be ranked on 9/9?” is certainly a valid question. Contesting that they will, or could be, after learning that, in fact, it is a distinct possibility, is obtuse.

No one asked the final question(s) you cited. FUBeAR asserted what he, and IFBO, reasonable, objective voters would do if Furman becomes the only FCS Team to ever defeat a Ranked SEC Team, and if the reasonable voters had Furman ranked in the Top 3 or 4 of their post-9/2 polls.

Obviously, if Furman loses to TTU on 8/31, they will be ranked #3 or #4 in no reasonable voters’ rankings. See why that question is absolutely obtuse?

“What is SC loses to NC?” is less obtuse (in actuality, if not in intent) because, as FUBeAR described, it is possible that SC could be ranked even if they lose to NC. If you didn’t think so, which 2 posts later, you indicated that did not, then, asking the question is actually equally obtuse.

Not being obtuse, but still being in disagreement, would go something like this…

“FUBeAR, you f’in moron, I ain’t sure that I agree with your premise that SC will be ranked on 9/9, but, if they are, and your purple pansies somehow luck out and win (which they will not … not a chance in Hades!), I disagree that I should move them to #1…even if I did have them at #3 or #4, which I would NOT. Heck, I don’t have a single SoCon school ranked in my Top 100. But…if they were #4…for some reason, here’s why I wouldn’t even consider moving them ahead of NDSU, SDSU, and/or MontSt…blahReason1, blahReason2, blahReason3, etc, etc, etc.”

That’s not obtuse. Obnoxious, maybe. Dead wrong? Of course….but not obtuse.

https://media.tenor.com/UGglViCURtIAAAAC/savvy-captain-jack-sparrow.gif

I for one would not call them purple pansies.

MSUBobcat has provided data that to show that asking what if TTU beats Furman is no more obtuse than asking what if Furman beats SC. You can disagree with the data but it's no less subjective than focusing on the polls that have SC ranked.

I actually agree with you that voters would be justified in voting Furman #1 if they beat a ranked SC. Voters would also be justified in keeping SDSU at #1 if they beat Montana State that weekend. Who is #1 at that point in the season is subjective.

Continue with your attempts to appear erudite. :D

[FUBeAR]

I for one would not call them purple pansies.

MSUBobcat has provided data that to show that asking what if TTU beats Furman is no more obtuse than asking what if Furman beats SC. You can disagree with the data but it's no less subjective than focusing on the polls that have SC ranked.
https://media.tenor.com/YuInZxE944cAAAAC/missed-point-point.gif




I actually agree with you that voters would be justified in voting Furman #1 if they beat a ranked SC. Voters would also be justified in keeping SDSU at #1 if they beat Montana State that weekend. Who is #1 at that point in the season is subjective.
https://media.tenor.com/6gmkle4hshYAAAAC/charades-look.gif



Continue with your attempts to appear erudite. :D
Erudite?

FUBeAR is an Orthodox Dentite.

[Gil Dobie]

Ranked in 7 polls, Near-Ranked in 2.

You have to be really trying hard to be as much of an idiot as you appear to be.

Thanks Karen

[FUBeAR]

Anyone else ever wish you had the ability to delete other peoples’ posts just to help them avoid making themselves look so lame?

Or is that just FUBeAR?

[Gil Dobie]

Anyone else ever wish you had the ability to delete other peoples’ posts just to help them avoid making themselves look so lame?

Or is that just FUBeAR?

Try the ignore function Karen.

[FUBeAR]

Try the ignore function Karen.
Confused as to why you might have quoted FUBeAR’s post there?

[JSUSoutherner]

In your opinion, how likely is Furman beating South Carolina?

They'll get rolled by three scores and change but still hold it up all season as having "outplayed" and SEC team.

[FUBeAR]

South Carolina is #27 in the just-released AP Poll. If the Gamecocks defeat #21 North Carolina on 9/2 in Charlotte, they will be ranked in the AP Top 25 when Furman visits Columbia on 9/9.

If South Carolina does not defeat UNC on 9/2, chances are rather slim (but not 0) that they will be ranked on 9/9. The combination of multiple losses by other ranked Teams and a very, very tight game with UNC could, but is unlikely to, have South Carolina ranked on 9/9.

If alien flesh-eating bacteria invades the Earth and devours all of South Carolina’s Players prior to 9/9, the Gamecocks will almost certainly not be ranked in the Top 25, so there is no need to ask the alien flesh-eating bacteria question.

[KPSUL]

South Carolina is #27 in the just-released AP Poll. If the Gamecocks defeat #21 North Carolina on 9/2 in Charlotte, they will be ranked in the AP Top 25 when Furman visits Columbia on 9/9.

If South Carolina does not defeat UNC on 9/2, chances are rather slim (but not 0) that they will be ranked on 9/9. The combination of multiple losses by other ranked Teams and a very, very tight game with UNC could, but is unlikely to, have South Carolina ranked on 9/9.

If alien flesh-eating bacteria invades the Earth and devours all of South Carolina’s Players prior to 9/9, the Gamecocks will almost certainly not be ranked in the Top 25, so there is no need to ask the alien flesh-eating bacteria question.

If the Purple People Eaters devour South Carolina on 9/9 the Gamecocks won't be ranked AFTER 9/9 either!

[FUBeAR]

If the Purple People Eaters devour South Carolina on 9/9 the Gamecocks won't be ranked AFTER 9/9 either!
Let's fire up the grill!

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/A3Ko7O0inMM/maxresdefault.jpg

[Gil Dobie]

If the Purple People Eaters devour South Carolina on 9/9 the Gamecocks won't be ranked AFTER 9/9 either!

The only poll that counts is the one after the final game in Frisco. The rest of the year it's people trying to baffle you with their BS.

[caribbeanhen]

The only poll that counts is the one after the final game in Frisco. The rest of the year it's people trying to baffle you with their BS.

this is true but it can be fun

[FUBeAR]

The only poll that counts is the one after the final game…
this is true but it can be fun
STRENUOUSLY Disagree!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOnRHAyXqYY

Not true - In fact, that's really the only poll that DOESN'T COUNT. We, in FCS, have a broad Playoff System. We don't really need a post-season poll to tell us how our Teams finished. We know the Top 1, the Top 2, the Top 4, the Top 8, the Top 16, and, to some degree, the Top 24.

On the other hand, ALL Polls (Pre-Season Polls thru the End of Regular Season Polls) that achieve any kind of 'reach,' DO COUNT. Poll A affects Poll B, which affects Poll C. Ultimately, all of these polls end up affecting the minds and the decision-making processes of the Playoff Selection Committee.

Thus, those polls affect Teams that are subjectively selected, or not subjectively selected, to participate in the Playoffs. Obviously, Teams not subjectively selected, are not going to 'finish' very high in any post-season poll and they definitely won't be winning any Playoff games. And those polls affect subjective Seeding decisions, which FUBeAR has determined, via fairly deep data analytics, definitively affects the outcomes of the Playoffs.

Polls are more than just "fun." Polls Lives Matter #PLM

[caribbeanhen]

Oh Lordy please start the games asap

[Gil Dobie]

Oh Lordy please start the games asap

Like that will stop his mental masterbation. If Furman doesn't win, we will listen to the reasons Furman got screwed by the very same polls and seeding. Just like last year.

[caribbeanhen]

Like that will stop his mental masterbation. If Furman doesn't win, we will listen to the reasons Furman got screwed by the very same polls and seeding. Just like last year.

Are you saying FuBeaR has had the same success getting you on board with Furman that I have had getting you schooled up on the University of McCartney?

Similar campaigns so it would be hypocritical of me to condemn him for his efforts. However, it must be stated that Furman is no living legend.

[FUBeAR]

Are you saying FuBeaR has had the same success getting you on board with Furman that I have had getting you schooled up on the University of McCartney?

Similar campaigns so it would be hypocritical of me to condemn him for his efforts. However, it must be stated that Furman is no living legend.
Maybe not "living," but definitely a legend https://sbhla.org/biographies/richard-furman/ - "More than any other man, he created the basic organizational concepts that are unique in Southern Baptist denominational life."

[clenz]

Like that will stop his mental masterbation. If Furman doesn't win, we will listen to the reasons Furman got screwed by the very same polls and seeding. Just like last year.
Reading all the the fubear, and other bull****, recently has made me realize why so many people hated me years ago when I actually gave a **** to levels that weren't healthy.

It's exhausting to read and it's just so much effort.

I apologize for my existence between 08 and about 2021

[FUBeAR]

Reading all the the fubear, and other bull****, recently has made me realize why so many people hated me years ago when I actually gave a **** to levels that weren't healthy.

It's exhausting to read and it's just so much effort.

I apologize for my existence between 08 and about 2021If you’re exhausting yourself reading anything FUBeAR authors, you’re definitely doing it wrong.

[McCowboys]

Reading all the the fubear, and other bull****, recently has made me realize why so many people hated me years ago when I actually gave a **** to levels that weren't healthy.

It's exhausting to read and it's just so much effort.

I apologize for my existence between 08 and about 2021

LOL

[ysubigred]

Reading all the the fubear, and other bull****, recently has made me realize why so many people hated me years ago when I actually gave a **** to levels that weren't healthy.

It's exhausting to read and it's just so much effort.

I apologize for my existence between 08 and about 2021And your YDS... [emoji1787]

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

[clenz]

I watched Mercer/UNA yesterday


My god…if that’s a top 20 team and better than what I see out of the teams 3-7 in the MVFC every week we need to fold the sport.


They would be eaten alive playing a Valley schedule. Stop ****ing ranking people based purely on the W column. Put some ****ing thought into quality of schedule


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

I watched Mercer/UNA yesterday


My god…if that’s a top 20 team and better than what I see out of the teams 3-7 in the MVFC every week we need to fold the sport.


They would be eaten alive playing a Valley schedule. Stop ****ing ranking people based purely on the W column. Put some ****ing thought into quality of schedule


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
But they play in the same conference as the Almighty Furman Paladins.

[FUBeAR]

https://media.tenor.com/CAbpuro5SwUAAAAM/dancing-the-four-tops.gif

[FUBeAR]

Mercer moved up 2 spots to #13 while North Alabama, with a new Head Coach / Coaching Staff and mostly new Players (and a solid effort against #13 Mercer), moved up 8 clicks to #72 in the Massey Ratings https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings.

Mercer is just below #12 North Dakota and 1 place ahead of fellow SoCon Team, Samford, sitting @ #14. Another SoCon Team, Chattanooga, sits just behind Samford at #15. Massey has Furman @ #10 to round out the 4 SoCon Teams in the Top 15.

UNA sits between #71 Charleston Southern & #73 Tennessee Tech

Also, Mercer's ranking remained unchanged @ #18 in Jeff Sagarin's updated Rankings. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

As noted on Saturday in the Week0 Score Update thread...
Depends on what happens in Week1 of course, but probably will hold Mercer @ #15. Doubt they would go higher than #12…unless they have a win or exceptional performance in Oxford....FUBeAR is holding Mercer (for Week0) at #15 - pretty much in the middle of Massey / Sagarin - so that seems just about right.

Nice to see Massey's and Sagarin's logical, modern, 2023, facts-over-feelings assessment rather than, y'know, "It's the Same Old Song."

[McCowboys]

Mercer moved up 2 spots to #13 while North Alabama, with a new Head Coach / Coaching Staff and mostly new Players (and a solid effort against #13 Mercer), moved up 8 clicks to #72 in the Massey Ratings https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings.

Mercer is just below #12 North Dakota and 1 place ahead of fellow SoCon Team, Samford, sitting @ #14. Another SoCon Team, Chattanooga, sits just behind Samford at #15. Massey has Furman @ #10 to round out the 4 SoCon Teams in the Top 15.

UNA sits between #71 Charleston Southern & #73 Tennessee Tech

Nice to see Mr. Massey's logical modern 2023 assessment rather than, y'know, "It's the Same Old Song."

Some teams that haven't even played yet went up one or two spots.

[FUBeAR]

Some teams that haven't even played yet went up one or two spots.
FUBeAR is a Bear of little brain, but he believes the movement of Teams that have not played is relative to the movement of other Teams based up their Week0 performance.

For example - #15 Chattanooga and #14 Samford each moved down 1 spot because Mercer moved ahead of them - from #15 to #13. Make sense?

[ElCid]

FUBeAR is a Bear of little brain, but he believes the movement of Teams that have not played is relative to the movement of other Teams based up their Week0 performance.

For example - #15 Chattanooga and #14 Samford each moved down 1 spot because Mercer moved ahead of them - from #15 to #13. Make sense?

Sometimes true, but not in all cases. And not in this case. Some teams moved up or down without any movement around them. For proof, simply look at Massey's numbers 27, 28, and 29. None of these teams played, nobody jumped them or fell below them. They just swapped places. In the case of HC falling two spots 27 to 29, I would guess it had to do with barely winning against Fordham last year since Fordham got kicked this last week. It all has to do with the starting rating. The starting rating is weighted for previous year(s) history, so teams that didn't even play can move based on the results of those few that did. Albany, JSU, and UNA all moved up the most based on their beating the computer spread (beating it by 13, 16, and 5 respectively). Mercer probably went up even for not beating the computer spread for some intricate tie ins to previous year games by UNA or Mercer. Again, its weighted so this influence will disappear as this years games are played.

[Reign of Terrier]

Reading all the the fubear, and other bull****, recently has made me realize why so many people hated me years ago when I actually gave a **** to levels that weren't healthy.

It's exhausting to read and it's just so much effort.

I apologize for my existence between 08 and about 2021

I too apologize for the way I posted pre- (I dunno?) 2020?

Anyway, this board is a lot less fun than it used to be bc pre-NDSU, outcomes were just as much of an argument-settler for the banter as anything. And since about 2017 or so, the playoff formula with regionalization and home field has basically killed data collection.

The only thing certain in FCS is the top 2-4 teams, and everything else is vibes. Football is a complicated sport. If you post long arguments like I'm want to do, do it because you're excited, not because you want to prove anything.

Until the playoff format is tweaked, everyone arguing these points is going to be wrong or miserable or both. That's why I don't even fill out a pill anymore and haven't in years (idk how I got the poll perfection banner)

[FUBeAR]

Sometimes true, but not in all cases. And not in this case. Some teams moved up or down without any movement around them. For proof, simply look at Massey's numbers 27, 28, and 29. None of these teams played, nobody jumped them or fell below them. They just swapped places. In the case of HC falling two spots 27 to 29, I would guess it had to do with barely winning against Fordham last year since Fordham got kicked this last week. It all has to do with the starting rating. The starting rating is weighted for previous year(s) history, so teams that didn't even play can move based on the results of those few that did. Albany, JSU, and UNA all moved up the most based on their beating the computer spread (beating it by 13, 16, and 5 respectively). Mercer probably went up even for not beating the computer spread for some intricate tie ins to previous year games by UNA or Mercer. Again, its weighted so this influence will disappear as this years games are played.
You’ve never Coached Middle School kids, have you?

[OrangeAndBlack]

I watched Mercer/UNA yesterday


My god…if that’s a top 20 team and better than what I see out of the teams 3-7 in the MVFC every week we need to fold the sport.


They would be eaten alive playing a Valley schedule. Stop ****ing ranking people based purely on the W column. Put some ****ing thought into quality of schedule


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mercer won the game and never trailed. They held their opponent to 1 score, and held them scoreless for the final 46+ minutes of play. When we all realize that Mercer played below their ability on offense -- and the outcome was never seriously in doubt -- that's a solid team.

[Gil Dobie]

What does the Massey Championship Trophy look like?

[FUBeAR]

What does the Massey Championship Trophy look like?
It, and the AGS Poll Trophy, are exact copies of each other.

Your humor(less) and (un)insightful contribution to the discussion remains consistent.

[Reign of Terrier]

What does the Massey Championship Trophy look like?

I dunno man, but from a Socon perspective, non-Dakota State Teams have been using it as a trump card toward anyone outside of like 2 conferences for like half a decade. Let us have this one!xlolx

[clenz]

Mercer won the game and never trailed. They held their opponent to 1 score, and held them scoreless for the final 46+ minutes of play. When we all realize that Mercer played below their ability on offense -- and the outcome was never seriously in doubt -- that's a solid team.
10 total first downs, 3 yards per carry, 6 yards per pass attempt, 4.1 yards per play....against a team that is still in the D2 transition and went 0-10 against D1 teams last season and went 6-30 against D1 teams since 2019 with wins over a winless WIU, a 1 win Presby team, a non-scholarshi Campbell team, a 3 win Gardner Webb team - all of those came in 2019. Then wins over 3 or less win RMU, Charleston Southern, and Hampton since

It's not just about "they won". I sure as hell hope Mercer would win that game. I sure as hell hope Mercer would "control" that game and it was never "in doubt". Watch that game and you can give Mercer the eyeball test. The game was slow. I'm sure there are individually players that are quite fast but the game was so slow to develop. Plays took forever to develop - getting to the edge, QB making reads, defenders reacting, etc.

Maybe Mercer get a Valley team in the playoffs (maybe even UNI) and they throttle them....I very much doubt it.

[MSUBobcat]

Mercer moved up 2 spots to #13 while North Alabama, with a new Head Coach / Coaching Staff and mostly new Players (and a solid effort against #13 Mercer), moved up 8 clicks to #72 in the Massey Ratings https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings.

Mercer is just below #12 North Dakota and 1 place ahead of fellow SoCon Team, Samford, sitting @ #14. Another SoCon Team, Chattanooga, sits just behind Samford at #15. Massey has Furman @ #10 to round out the 4 SoCon Teams in the Top 15.

UNA sits between #71 Charleston Southern & #73 Tennessee Tech

Also, Mercer's ranking remained unchanged @ #18 in Jeff Sagarin's updated Rankings. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

As noted on Saturday in the Week0 Score Update thread......FUBeAR is holding Mercer (for Week0) at #15 - pretty much in the middle of Massey / Sagarin - so that seems just about right.

Nice to see Massey's and Sagarin's logical, modern, 2023, facts-over-feelings assessment rather than, y'know, "It's the Same Old Song."

I'm a little surprised that you are using Sagarin's rankings, which doesn't show much love for the SoCon. The first non-BigSky/MVFC team isn't until Furman until #12. FUBeAr agrees that the top 11 teams are from 2 conferences? And those conferences have 15 of the top 25 teams? I wouldn't have guessed he would use this computer model as support.

[POD Knows]

10 total first downs, 3 yards per carry, 6 yards per pass attempt, 4.1 yards per play....against a team that is still in the D2 transition and went 0-10 against D1 teams last season and went 6-30 against D1 teams since 2019 with wins over a winless WIU, a 1 win Presby team, a non-scholarshi Campbell team, a 3 win Gardner Webb team - all of those came in 2019. Then wins over 3 or less win RMU, Charleston Southern, and Hampton since

It's not just about "they won". I sure as hell hope Mercer would win that game. I sure as hell hope Mercer would "control" that game and it was never "in doubt". Watch that game and you can give Mercer the eyeball test. The game was slow. I'm sure there are individually players that are quite fast but the game was so slow to develop. Plays took forever to develop - getting to the edge, QB making reads, defenders reacting, etc.

Maybe Mercer get a Valley team in the playoffs (maybe even UNI) and they throttle them....I very much doubt it.Balls on and to say this game was never really in doubt is sort of dubious. UNA had chances in this game, a couple of 4th down conversions on Mercers side of the field would have been huge.

[FUBeAR]

https://media.tenor.com/CAbpuro5SwUAAAAM/dancing-the-four-tops.gif

[ElCid]

Balls on and to say this game was never really in doubt is sort of dubious. UNA had chances in this game, a couple of 4th down conversions on Mercers side of the field would have been huge.

Mercer didn't play great on O, but seriously? It never looked much in doubt to me. Two inopportune fumbles made it look much closer than it actually was.

[POD Knows]

Mercer didn't play great on O, but seriously? It never looked much in doubt to me. Two inopportune fumbles made it look much closer than it actually was.It was 10 to freaking 7 at the end of three quarters. Mercer had a whopping 40 more yards of total offense (yea, stats are for losers). A 10-7 game at the end of 3 is a close game to me and is a game that is in "doubt". Didn't UNA also have a field goal blocked or something, I missed part of the first quarter. And why are you guys pretending that UNA might somehow be good? Clenz laid it out pretty well, this was a team that didn't win an FCS game last year and I get that they had a bunch of transfers but what are you gonna get as far as transfer quality to a team that looked to be in deep trouble.

I am sure this was an off game for Mercer and they were clearly the better team but the "rationalizing" regarding Mercer's performance is sort of funny. If NDSU only beats EWU by a couple possessions (EWU has a history of very good FCS teams), you will have NDSU fans jumping off buildings, I doubt many excuses will be put forth if that happens.

[Reign of Terrier]

10 total first downs, 3 yards per carry, 6 yards per pass attempt, 4.1 yards per play....against a team that is still in the D2 transition and went 0-10 against D1 teams last season and went 6-30 against D1 teams since 2019 with wins over a winless WIU, a 1 win Presby team, a non-scholarshi Campbell team, a 3 win Gardner Webb team - all of those came in 2019. Then wins over 3 or less win RMU, Charleston Southern, and Hampton since

It's not just about "they won". I sure as hell hope Mercer would win that game. I sure as hell hope Mercer would "control" that game and it was never "in doubt". Watch that game and you can give Mercer the eyeball test. The game was slow. I'm sure there are individually players that are quite fast but the game was so slow to develop. Plays took forever to develop - getting to the edge, QB making reads, defenders reacting, etc.

Maybe Mercer get a Valley team in the playoffs (maybe even UNI) and they throttle them....I very much doubt it.


Balls on and to say this game was never really in doubt is sort of dubious. UNA had chances in this game, a couple of 4th down conversions on Mercers side of the field would have been huge.

People are way over-reading this. UNA had something like 19 transfers in their two deep, they're not the same team. Mercer was breaking in a new QB who hadn't seen significant time since the spring season. There were a couple turnovers that kept things close, UNA ran a unique offense relative to prior years and was definitely not clicking. Penalties for Mercer halted some big plays. And it was 100 degrees.

It's a week zero game. Often times, you can only hope for a win. I remember in 2021 when Youngstown beat IW in OT in week one; IW made the playoffs and over time developed over a couple seasons to push the Bizon in Fargo. I think FU_Bear is putting too much hype and the haters are putting too much expectations on Mercer. Mercer is a team that has never made the playoffs and kinda of slipped in the last month of the season last year. This isn't like Furman or Samford - two proven programs coming off 10 win seasons and a resume of sustained success (albeit relative over time) - this more like IW. I'm not saying Mercer will turn into IW over the course of this season or next (I don't think so), but with all of the above it's an outcome not incompatible with a top 20 team.

If Mercer's going to be a top 10 team this year, I don't think they were going to show it until mid-to-late season anyway. Young, unaccomplished teams like that improve over the course of the season.

[FUBeAR]

People are way over-reading this. UNA had something like 19 transfers in their two deep, they're not the same team. Mercer was breaking in a new QB who hadn't seen significant time since the spring season. There were a couple turnovers that kept things close, UNA ran a unique offense relative to prior years and was definitely not clicking. Penalties for Mercer halted some big plays. And it was 100 degrees.

It's a week zero game. Often times, you can only hope for a win. I remember in 2021 when Youngstown beat IW in OT in week one; IW made the playoffs and over time developed over a couple seasons to push the Bizon in Fargo. I think FU_Bear is putting too much hype and the haters are putting too much expectations on Mercer. Mercer is a team that has never made the playoffs and kinda of slipped in the last month of the season last year. This isn't like Furman or Samford - two proven programs coming off 10 win seasons and a resume of sustained success (albeit relative over time) - this more like IW. I'm not saying Mercer will turn into IW over the course of this season or next (I don't think so), but with all of the above it's an outcome not incompatible with a top 20 team.

If Mercer's going to be a top 10 team this year, I don't think they were going to show it until mid-to-late season anyway. Young, unaccomplished teams like that improve over the course of the season.
Mostly fair - Saying Mercer ‘faded in the last month of the prior 2 seasons’ is broadly inaccurate and misleading though. It is much more accurate to say that ‘fading’ in the final seconds of the final regular season games against seeded Playoff Teams in the past 2 seasons has cost Mercer a SoCon Championship and 2 Playoff berths. There is no “hype” to that statement. It is 100% factual.

Completely agree with the point FUBeAR thinks you might be making though - seems odd that a lot of people - not just here, but on all social media, podcasts, and FCS reporting channels - are going far ‘out of their way’ to crucify and bury Mercer Football after a double-digit win.

Mercer had no clue what UNA was going to do on either side of the ball, nor about any of the Players they were facing. UNA had 11 game films on Mercer and their 18 returning starters. It was over 120 degrees on the field. There was a 1 hour lightning delay. Those conditions absolutely affected both Teams equally, but we aren’t really assessing both Teams, are we?

So if you, as the finely-tuned, D1 level athlete that you are, can deliver a high quality performance in those conditions with no ‘scout’ of your opponent, please **** all over Mercer. If not, as FUBeAR’s Louisiana clients used to, laughingly, tell him, when he tried to close the deal too fast for their tastes… “Just wait a while, chèr.”

[clenz]

.

Mercer had no clue what UNA was going to do on either side of the ball, nor about any of the Players they were facing. UNA had 11 game films on Mercer and their 18 returning starters. It was over 120 degrees on the field. There was a 1 hour lightning delay. Those conditions absolutely affected both Teams equally, but we aren’t really assessing both Teams, are we?
Let's phrase this another way.

Mercer, a team with top 20 in the nation preseason hype returned 86% of their starters and had a year, or more, with those kids playing together to learn the extreme intricacies and timing of their offense and defense going against a team that has 6 D1 wins in 5 years and had never played together before Saturday, held just a 3 point lead with 11 minutes left in the game.

Either UNA is going to be a fringe top 25 team or Mercer didn't look like a team that should be considered one of the 20 best teams in the entire country.

Which one of those is likely closer to accurate?

[ElCid]

It was 10 to freaking 7 at the end of three quarters. Mercer had a whopping 40 more yards of total offense (yea, stats are for losers). A 10-7 game at the end of 3 is a close game to me and is a game that is in "doubt". Didn't UNA also have a field goal blocked or something, I missed part of the first quarter. And why are you guys pretending that UNA might somehow be good? Clenz laid it out pretty well, this was a team that didn't win an FCS game last year and I get that they had a bunch of transfers but what are you gonna get as far as transfer quality to a team that looked to be in deep trouble.

I am sure this was an off game for Mercer and they were clearly the better team but the "rationalizing" regarding Mercer's performance is sort of funny. If NDSU only beats EWU by a couple possessions (EWU has a history of very good FCS teams), you will have NDSU fans jumping off buildings, I doubt many excuses will be put forth if that happens.

Well, "I" never said UNA was somehow real good. And lots of close games are still in control by one team. I watched nearly the entire game and while it was close, I never got the impression that UNA was even close to pulling it out. They got a momentum boost from the muffed punt return by Mercer that got them a temp reprieve. As I said, a couple inopportune fumbles by Mercer were the only thing keeping it as close as it was. One killed a highly likely score by Mercer, which would have had them beat all computer projections. As it was they were one score shy.

In the end, it was just one game and an opening game to boot at a neutral local with miserable wx. We might learn more about them next week, probably not with an FBS and then Morehead the next week. But their games against Fuman and VMI in Sept should reveal as lot more. I would never make excuses for them, trust me, but I'm trying to look at it fairly and impartially. We will also learn a lot about UNA their next few games. I'm not inclined to evaluate them based solely on their games from "last year."

[POD Knows]

Well, "I" never said UNA was somehow real good. And lots of close games are still in control by one team. I watched nearly the entire game and while it was close, I never got the impression that UNA was even close to pulling it out. They got a momentum boost from the muffed punt return by Mercer that got them a temp reprieve. As I said, a couple inopportune fumbles by Mercer were the only thing keeping it as close as it was. One killed a highly likely score by Mercer, which would have had them beat all computer projections. As it was they were one score shy.

In the end, it was just one game and an opening game to boot at a neutral local with miserable wx. We might learn more about them next week, probably not with an FBS and then Morehead the next week. But their games against Fuman and VMI in Sept should reveal as lot more. I would never make excuses for them, trust me, but I'm trying to look at it fairly and impartially. We will also learn a lot about UNA their next few games. I'm not inclined to evaluate them based solely on their games from "last year."
UNA has a missed field goal and two 4th and short stops in Mercer territory, UNA also had more penalty yardage but the turnovers by Mercer were big. Mercer won by double digits, 10 is more than 9, and people talk about how good Mercer's D was, there was only 40 yards of total offense difference in the game, I guess UNA had a good D as well xeyebrowx This should have been a 30 point blow out by Mercer regardless of whether or not it was the first game, it was a first game for UNA and the weather was the same for both teams. They underperformed their poll ranking, can we at least agree on that.

[ElCid]

UNA has a missed field goal and two 4th and short stops in Mercer territory, UNA also had more penalty yardage but the turnovers by Mercer were big. Mercer won by double digits, 10 is more than 9, and people talk about how good Mercer's D was, there was only 40 yards of total offense difference in the game, I guess UNA had a good D as well xeyebrowx This should have been a 30 point blow out by Mercer regardless of whether or not it was the first game, it was a first game for UNA and the weather was the same for both teams. They underperformed their poll ranking, can we at least agree on that.

All true. But lots of playoff teams underperformed their poll rankings in at least one game. Sometimes more. Don't they?

There are lots of causes for that like rivalries, travel, wx, momentum, injuries, lack of interest.... Look at last year. Montana, Montana St, W&M, Furman, NDSU, HC, NH all had close games, like ONE score games, against teams they should have run off the field. I'll just list one by score. NDSU 31 - Indiana St 26. The computers had NDSU as a 25 point favorite. And just a side note, that same 2-9 Indiana St team beat UNA by 3, in OT. Did I think NDSU underperformed their ranking? Sure. Didn't define their season for me though. Again, just trying to put it in perspective.

[MR. CHICKEN]

UNA...GETS CHATTANOOGA @ HOME....... IFIN' THOSE...X-FERS GET TO KNOW EACH OTHERAH........BAH SATURDAY......MOCS MIGHT DROP DEY'RE SOCKS......BRAWK!.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think UNA will win a few games lol Don't ask me how many because I dunno

[FUBeAR]

Let's phrase this another way.

Mercer, a team with top 20 in the nation preseason hype returned 86% of their starters and had a year, or more, with those kids playing together to learn the extreme intricacies and timing of their offense and defense going against a team that has 6 D1 wins in 5 years and had never played together before Saturday, held just a 3 point lead with 11 minutes left in the game.

Either UNA is going to be a fringe top 25 team or Mercer didn't look like a team that should be considered one of the 20 best teams in the entire country.

Which one of those is likely closer to accurate?
Neither - because your premise reeks of boundless ****ery.

1) UNA Today ain't UNA of Yesterday. Who is UNA? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ With an entirely new Coaching Staff, a roster of 50% new Players, and 33 new Players on the 2-Deep, NOTHING UNA has done in the past is of any significance to the Team they are today or the season that they will have in 2023. Who they WERE is wholly irrelevant. Who they ARE remains to be seen. UIW 2021 & 2022 and Samford 2022 have proven that. Nothing more to be said about it. You (ALL) can continue quoting a raft of meaningless historical records and stats, but all it does is make you look like a bunch of low-information out-of-touch boomers (says the high information, in-touch boomer).

2) Impossible to Prepare, Difficult to Execute - Completely entwined in #1 is the fact that Mercer was absolutely incredibly hampered in being able to prepare for this game. Not sure how many of you have Coached at the College or High School level, but there is a dogmatic routine followed to prepare for one's opponents. Before even taking the field, hundreds of man-hours are invested in overall opponent film breakdown, self-scout vs. like opponents, personnel match-up evaluations, and more esoteric concepts such as interdependent tendency analysis (when we do this, they're gonna do that). Mercer did what they could to get video of other teams these coaches have coached going back to Bethel College, etc., but that's like trying to describe an elephant with your eyes closed and only touching it's tail. This is then carried over to the Players. "Coach, where's my scouting report?" "Coach, what are #3's go-to at-the-snap techniques when he's in press man coverage?" When you're used to having voluminous details on your opponents and you got dick, it throws off every aspect of preparation. All of you who have Coached High School level and above know that. On the other hand, UNA had everything they needed to know about Mercer. Totally not a good situation for the Bears.

3) Uniquely difficult to execute - Mercer's Offense is what FUBeAR would call 'highly stylized.' If fact, it's way too stylized for FUBeAR's taste. FUBeAR prefers running Toss Sweep and A-Gap Power until they prove they can stop it. But Mercer's Offense relies on a myriad of formations, shifts, and motions (at tempo) to get the Defense to make mistakes pre-snap with their reactions to all of this 'noise' and exploiting the mismatches realized. With normal preparation, this Offense can be very effective - #1 in the SoCon last year, but without proper preparation, it is way more 'hamstrung' than less 'stylized' Offenses. Since all of you Coaches watched the game so closely, you undoubtedly noticed Mercer doing the "check with me" thing after a 1st shift on almost every Offensive Play. They don't do that normally and that removes almost any chance of using the tempo changes they use so successfully. This could certainly 'bite' the Bears in the future as it did on Saturday, but it's hard for FUBeAR to imagine a scenario when they would have less opportunity to be prepared than this one was. Kinda that ugly 'perfect storm' thing.

4) Conditions / Motivation- Don't be a dork and say 'both teams.' That's not the point. We are dissecting (like a ****in' CSI episode) Mercer's showing. FUBeAR played at UNC when it was 110 on the field one Saturday and he was seeing visions of monsters (or maybe that was just Lawrence Taylor) and wishing for Death to come take him. IT WAS SO ****ING HOT! Really cannot imagine what 120 field temp was like. FUBeAR didn't attend, but he has heard of melting shoe soles from those who did. And FUBeAR never faced these weather/lightning delays as a Player cuz we just played thru 'em (see - told ya - Boomer!), but has as a Coach and THEY SUCK. If FUBeAR was playing in a game where he was far less mentally (information-wise) prepared to play, in 120 field temp, and then had an hour weather delay...pretty sure he would have (mysteriously) strained a hamstring during the break - too rapidly backing away for the urinal or some such mishap. They should give out hazardous duty NIL payments to any Players that finished that game.

Again - FUBeAR understands that these situations/conditions would not have affected in any way the performance that all of you world-class athletes would have been able to deliver and you award-winning Coaches would have had no difficulty pulling a premier performance out of your Teams with no way to prepare and with those conditions, but FUBeAR (and he guesses Mercer's Players and Coaches) just are not able to meet the standards which you expect from them....in this 1 game on this 1 day.

[clenz]

A bunch of hot air



Again - Mercer returns 86% of last year's starters. Same coaches. Same System. A full season, spring, summer, and fall camp of working together to get their timing and deeper playbook installed and worked out against a team that is literally entirely brand new. They have had something like 3 weeks together? Say what you will about ability to prepare for that, UNA has probably 25% of their playbooks installed. Timing on anything doesn't exist. Fluid commutation and ability to know where everyone is going to be without needing to look doesn't exist. It's a team of misfit toys right now. In that situation the team with the years of experience together should absolutely dog walk.... unless the talent of the more experienced team is low enough that the mismatched team can make up for the difference.

When you have a super experienced team returning and you are still having issues with "stylized and executing correctly" that's a bigger problem than "we didn't know what play they were running"

"Don't be a dork and say "both teams"

You stupid ****bag, IT WAS BOTH TEAMS. Are you suggesting that only Mercer was impacted? Are you suggesting Mercer was more greatly impacted? Both of those indicate UNA was better conditioned and prepared for the game - which falls on the coaching and training staff of Mercer to not have done the correct steps to prepare for the conditions. You're ****ing from Georgia, it's not like a team from Coastal Maine, Washington or Oregon was stepping into the heat.

I know you're going to continue to argue with the most bull**** excuses/reasons/hypotheticals like the "I have literally nothing in my life outside of my college team" person you are. I'm done at this point.

I look forward to Mercer going 8-3 beating up on absolute dog **** and then getting absolutely butt ****ed in the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

All true. But lots of playoff teams underperformed their poll rankings in at least one game. Sometimes more. Don't they?

NDSU 31 - Indiana St 26. The computers had NDSU as a 25 point favorite. And just a side note, that same 2-9 Indiana St team beat UNA by 3, in OT. Did I think NDSU underperformed their ranking? Sure. Didn't define their season for me though. Again, just trying to put it in perspective.

Great point Cid!

Let's look at the reactions after this heinous, egregious, ridiculous, awful, catastrophic, cataclysmic, disastrous UNDERPERFORMANCE by the Bison on October 8, 2022...

STATS poll


Rank
Week 5
October 3
Week 6
October 10


1.
North Dakota State (4–1) (45)
North Dakota State (5–1) (41)


Coaches' poll




Rank
Week 5
October 3
Week 6
October 10


1.
North Dakota State (4–1) (24)
North Dakota State (5–1) (23)



AGS Poll: Week 6 Top 25 Results - October 10, 2022 (https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-6-top-25-results-4/)



Rank
Change
Team
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
–
North Dakota State Bison
1204
24


AGS Poll: Week 5 Top 25 Results - October 3, 2022 (https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-6-top-25-results-4/)


Rank
Change
Team
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
–
North Dakota State Bison
1179
35




So...NDSU wins a game by 5 points over a 2-9 Team...and, OH SO INTERESTINGLY, a Team that barely, just barely beat North Alabama in OT because of this play (below), when they Lions were going in for the OT win after the Trees kicked a FG on their possession....



2nd and 2 at INS07
TEAM rush up middle for loss of 26 yards to the INS33 (Rylan Cole), clock 15:00.



What in the holy heck happened on this play??? But FUBeAR digresses...

...when NDSU was a 30 POINT FAVORITE https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf-game/north-dakota-state-indiana-state-score-odds-october-8-2022/130221 and they merely lose a few 1st place votes, but don't drop even 1 slot. They even had MORE points after this performance in the AGS Poll.


BUT....all of you EXPERTS are ready to crucify and bury Mercer Football (who is ranked as high as #12) and completely remove them from the Top 25 for having a BETTER performance in an OPENING GAME in HORRIFIC Conditions than your exalted bizuns had just last year in the middle of the season (last 3 game films exchanged (minimum)) on a sunny 50 degree Fall day....against, as proven by their OT game almost exactly the same level of Team that Mercer just played.

Post your ballots showing you didn't include NDSU in the Top 25 in the 10/10/22 Poll or STFU ... cuz you have ZERO credibility!!!

[FUBeAR]

Again - Mercer returns 86% of last year's starters. Same coaches. Same System. A full season, spring, summer, and fall camp of working together to get their timing and deeper playbook installed and worked out against a team that is literally entirely brand new. They have had something like 3 weeks together? Say what you will about ability to prepare for that, UNA has probably 25% of their playbooks installed. Timing on anything doesn't exist. Fluid commutation and ability to know where everyone is going to be without needing to look doesn't exist. It's a team of misfit toys right now. In that situation the team with the years of experience together should absolutely dog walk.... unless the talent of the more experienced team is low enough that the mismatched team can make up for the difference.

When you have a super experienced team returning and you are still having issues with "stylized and executing correctly" that's a bigger problem than "we didn't know what play they were running"

"Don't be a dork and say "both teams"

You stupid ****bag, IT WAS BOTH TEAMS. Are you suggesting that only Mercer was impacted? Are you suggesting Mercer was more greatly impacted? Both of those indicate UNA was better conditioned and prepared for the game - which falls on the coaching and training staff of Mercer to not have done the correct steps to prepare for the conditions. You're ****ing from Georgia, it's not like a team from Coastal Maine, Washington or Oregon was stepping into the heat.

I know you're going to continue to argue with the most bull**** excuses/reasons/hypotheticals like the "I have literally nothing in my life outside of my college team" person you are. I'm done at this point.

I look forward to Mercer going 8-3 beating up on absolute dog **** and then getting absolutely butt ****ed in the playoffs.
You're right about you being a complete ****head as a poster. FUBeAR is certain nobody will argue with you on that point.

Post your poll from 8/10/22 showing no NDSU in the Top 25 or any record of any post where you said anything like that and FUBeAR will consider reading any subsequent posts you author. Otherwise, he has no use for the maniacal ramblings of a low-information, obnoxious hypocrite.

[dewey]

And to think that the b****ing was going to go down when the football season startedxlolx

Sounds like Mercer didn't play well to me (opinions vary I know) but they found a way to win which is always good. Was this just a below average game or a trend? We shall see.

Dewey

[Catbooster]

I too apologize for the way I posted pre- (I dunno?) 2020?

Anyway, this board is a lot less fun than it used to be bc pre-NDSU, outcomes were just as much of an argument-settler for the banter as anything. And since about 2017 or so, the playoff formula with regionalization and home field has basically killed data collection.

The only thing certain in FCS is the top 2-4 teams, and everything else is vibes. Football is a complicated sport. If you post long arguments like I'm want to do, do it because you're excited, not because you want to prove anything.

Until the playoff format is tweaked, everyone arguing these points is going to be wrong or miserable or both. That's why I don't even fill out a pill anymore and haven't in years (idk how I got the poll perfection banner)

wont

Has regionalization or home field changed significantly since 2017 or so? I'd guess you were just younger (a young terrier xthumbsupx ), more enthusiastic and perhaps less jaded(?) then. These internet arguments have almost never settled anything. If you're not interested in filling out a poll, or less interested in participating in the forum, it's probably more about your time availability and maybe changes in interest than the playoff format IMO.

But I will agree that arguing for second place (i.e. after NDSU dynasty started) is often not as fun as when the arguments include the top spot. Also, there were some characters in the old days on this board that were entertaining.

Maybe we are in the beginning of a phase where NDSU is not always the favorite?

[MSUBobcat]

Great point Cid!

Let's look at the reactions after this heinous, egregious, ridiculous, awful, catastrophic, cataclysmic, disastrous UNDERPERFORMANCE by the Bison on October 8, 2022...

STATS poll


Rank
Week 5
October 3
Week 6
October 10


1.
North Dakota State (4–1) (45)
North Dakota State (5–1) (41)


Coaches' poll




Rank
Week 5
October 3
Week 6
October 10


1.
North Dakota State (4–1) (24)
North Dakota State (5–1) (23)



AGS Poll: Week 6 Top 25 Results - October 10, 2022 (https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-6-top-25-results-4/)



Rank
Change
Team
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
–
North Dakota State Bison
1204
24


AGS Poll: Week 5 Top 25 Results - October 3, 2022 (https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-6-top-25-results-4/)


Rank
Change
Team
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
–
North Dakota State Bison
1179
35




So...NDSU wins a game by 5 points over a 2-9 Team...and, OH SO INTERESTINGLY, a Team that barely, just barely beat North Alabama in OT because of this play (below), when they Lions were going in for the OT win after the Trees kicked a FG on their possession....



2nd and 2 at INS07
TEAM rush up middle for loss of 26 yards to the INS33 (Rylan Cole), clock 15:00.



What in the holy heck happened on this play??? But FUBeAR digresses...

...when NDSU was a 30 POINT FAVORITE https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf-game/north-dakota-state-indiana-state-score-odds-october-8-2022/130221 and they merely lose a few 1st place votes, but don't drop even 1 slot. They even had MORE points after this performance in the AGS Poll.


BUT....all of you EXPERTS are ready to crucify and bury Mercer Football (who is ranked as high as #12) and completely remove them from the Top 25 for having a BETTER performance in an OPENING GAME in HORRIFIC Conditions than your exalted bizuns had just last year in the middle of the season (last 3 game films exchanged (minimum)) on a sunny 50 degree Fall day....against, as proven by their OT game almost exactly the same level of Team that Mercer just played.

Post your ballots showing you didn't include NDSU in the Top 25 in the 10/10/22 Poll or STFU ... cuz you have ZERO credibility!!!

I whole-heartedly agree that we shouldn't make too much of one game (said as much in post #79 of this thread). We can look to many teams that stub their toe a bit over the course of the season. At this point, there's only been 3 FCS games to provide context, whereas there is often more of a body of work to look at for data. If Mercer has a decent showing this weekend, maybe it was a one-off. Maybe tUNA beats 'Nooga down and they are much improved, and a 10 pt win is a solid W. Maybe they both $#it the bed this season.

Interestingly, the game you posted DID have more context, and NDSU was the incumbent #1 based on a 4-1 record with a 3-pt loss to a mediocre P5 Arizona team. To add more context, I dug out the old How They Fared (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PP0pTt3xXRHByPhvRUZIDXOtUkNxQKeYU0ASvf0kOtE/edit#gid=179483013) for that week to see how the teams below them performed. In hindsight, an argument could have that SDSU should have jumped NDSU for their 25 pt beatdown of the Coyotes, or Sac for their 48 pt beatdown of NoCO, or MSU for a 31 pt beatdown of ISU-o, etc., etc. but it's NDSU and until someone actually TAKES the crown, not just gets close, I understand why voters kept them as King of the Hill. Even more interestingly (in this guy's humble opinion) is that the first reply (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?314035-AGS-Top-25-How-They-Fared-Week-6-Fall-2022&highlight=fared) was FUBeAR's buddy Gil Dobie stating, "Curious to see if NDSU stays #1". A couple posts later Professor Chaos wasn't sure that they'd maintain the placement in the AGS poll and mused that it's "Hard to justify them there when just looking at this year considering Montana destroyed the same Indiana St that NDSU just struggled mightily with and SDSU easily handled the same USD team that NDSU trailed at halftime." but that it would work itself out because the next week NDSU and SDSU would face off for the top spot anyway. Then Tribal reiterated my opinion that #1 (especially when they've been dominant for a decade) stays #1 til they lose. The debate was definitely going on about NDSU's questionable victory over ISU-b.

[FUBeAR]

I whole-heartedly agree that we shouldn't make too much of one game (said as much in post #79 of this thread). We can look to many teams that stub their toe a bit over the course of the season. At this point, there's only been 3 FCS games to provide context, whereas there is often more of a body of work to look at for data. If Mercer has a decent showing this weekend, maybe it was a one-off. Maybe tUNA beats 'Nooga down and they are much improved, and a 10 pt win is a solid W. Maybe they both $#it the bed this season.

Interestingly, the game you posted DID have more context, and NDSU was the incumbent #1 based on a 4-1 record with a 3-pt loss to a mediocre P5 Arizona team. To add more context, I dug out the old How They Fared (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PP0pTt3xXRHByPhvRUZIDXOtUkNxQKeYU0ASvf0kOtE/edit#gid=179483013) for that week to see how the teams below them performed. In hindsight, an argument could have that SDSU should have jumped NDSU for their 25 pt beatdown of the Coyotes, or Sac for their 48 pt beatdown of NoCO, or MSU for a 31 pt beatdown of ISU-o, etc., etc. but it's NDSU and until someone actually TAKES the crown, not just gets close, I understand why voters kept them as King of the Hill. Even more interestingly (in this guy's humble opinion) is that the first reply (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?314035-AGS-Top-25-How-They-Fared-Week-6-Fall-2022&highlight=fared) was FUBeAR's buddy Gil Dobie stating, "Curious to see if NDSU stays #1". A couple posts later Professor Chaos wasn't sure that they'd maintain the placement in the AGS poll and mused that it's "Hard to justify them there when just looking at this year considering Montana destroyed the same Indiana St that NDSU just struggled mightily with and SDSU easily handled the same USD team that NDSU trailed at halftime." but that it would work itself out because the next week NDSU and SDSU would face off for the top spot anyway. Then Tribal reiterated my opinion that #1 (especially when they've been dominant for a decade) stays #1 til they lose. The debate was definitely going on about NDSU's questionable victory over ISU-b.
Good stuff to know. FUBeAR doesn't doubt Professor Chaos provided some solidly objective commentary to that discussion.

BUT...How many Poll voters / Posters were adamantly, vigorously, and repeatedly advocating for removing NDSU from the Top 25 (or let's just say, even sliding them down 14 slots to #15) for winning by half as much, on a perfect day, in mid-season, over a near-identical Team to the one Mercer just defeated by double-digits on a surface-of-Venus-hot Opening day?

FUBeAR wagers not 1 solitary person did or even would consider uttering such a blasphemous affront to current FCS doctrine. Polls are taken and tabulated weekly during the season, right? Then WTF do wins from 9 years ago have to do with anyone's ranking? If you're a poll voter and you are considering a Team's performance from 9 years ago in your rankings, you need to stop being a poll voter.

If you think Mercer should be booted from the Top 25, where, again, at least 1 ranking has the Bears as high as #12, for defeating an FCS opponent by double-digits, then you damn sure ought to have some evidence of your recommendations to drop NDSU significantly after their 10/8 game last year. If you don't, you're just a hypocrite and you really shouldn't be voting in anyone's poll because you've proven you cannot be objective - which is why FUBeAR stopped voting...he knew he was struggling to maintain objectivity to 'balance' his suspected bias of other voters...so the only righteous solution was not to vote. IF you can't be 100% objective, you shouldn't be voting.

And, again, if you've called for Mercer's 'burial' in this thread and didn't call for NDSU's defrocking after their narrow win over ISU last year....YOU ARE THAT GUY.


OH - FUBeAR looked up that play in the N Alabama / ISU OT game ... where N Alabama was about to win. Seems the Lions put Weber's Long Snapper in at Center for a play....29:30


https://youtu.be/HRbCFj8BwzE?feature=shared

[POD Knows]

Great point Cid!

Let's look at the reactions after this heinous, egregious, ridiculous, awful, catastrophic, cataclysmic, disastrous UNDERPERFORMANCE by the Bison on October 8, 2022...

STATS poll


Rank
Week 5
October 3
Week 6
October 10


1.
North Dakota State (4–1) (45)
North Dakota State (5–1) (41)


Coaches' poll




Rank
Week 5
October 3
Week 6
October 10


1.
North Dakota State (4–1) (24)
North Dakota State (5–1) (23)



AGS Poll: Week 6 Top 25 Results - October 10, 2022 (https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-6-top-25-results-4/)



Rank
Change
Team
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
–
North Dakota State Bison
1204
24


AGS Poll: Week 5 Top 25 Results - October 3, 2022 (https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-6-top-25-results-4/)


Rank
Change
Team
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
–
North Dakota State Bison
1179
35




So...NDSU wins a game by 5 points over a 2-9 Team...and, OH SO INTERESTINGLY, a Team that barely, just barely beat North Alabama in OT because of this play (below), when they Lions were going in for the OT win after the Trees kicked a FG on their possession....



2nd and 2 at INS07
TEAM rush up middle for loss of 26 yards to the INS33 (Rylan Cole), clock 15:00.



What in the holy heck happened on this play??? But FUBeAR digresses...

...when NDSU was a 30 POINT FAVORITE https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf-game/north-dakota-state-indiana-state-score-odds-october-8-2022/130221 and they merely lose a few 1st place votes, but don't drop even 1 slot. They even had MORE points after this performance in the AGS Poll.


BUT....all of you EXPERTS are ready to crucify and bury Mercer Football (who is ranked as high as #12) and completely remove them from the Top 25 for having a BETTER performance in an OPENING GAME in HORRIFIC Conditions than your exalted bizuns had just last year in the middle of the season (last 3 game films exchanged (minimum)) on a sunny 50 degree Fall day....against, as proven by their OT game almost exactly the same level of Team that Mercer just played.

Post your ballots showing you didn't include NDSU in the Top 25 in the 10/10/22 Poll or STFU ... cuz you have ZERO credibility!!!
JFC. A fair number of people did drop NDSU in their polls after that game. I am sure I probably did. I also have news for you, Mercer is not NDSU, proven program performance does make a difference in people’s minds

[JSUSoutherner]

Neither - because your premise reeks of boundless ****ery.

1) UNA Today ain't UNA of Yesterday. Who is UNA? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ With an entirely new Coaching Staff, a roster of 50% new Players, and 33 new Players on the 2-Deep, NOTHING UNA has done in the past is of any significance to the Team they are today or the season that they will have in 2023. Who they WERE is wholly irrelevant. Who they ARE remains to be seen. UIW 2021 & 2022 and Samford 2022 have proven that. Nothing more to be said about it. You (ALL) can continue quoting a raft of meaningless historical records and stats, but all it does is make you look like a bunch of low-information out-of-touch boomers (says the high information, in-touch boomer).

2) Impossible to Prepare, Difficult to Execute - Completely entwined in #1 is the fact that Mercer was absolutely incredibly hampered in being able to prepare for this game. Not sure how many of you have Coached at the College or High School level, but there is a dogmatic routine followed to prepare for one's opponents. Before even taking the field, hundreds of man-hours are invested in overall opponent film breakdown, self-scout vs. like opponents, personnel match-up evaluations, and more esoteric concepts such as interdependent tendency analysis (when we do this, they're gonna do that). Mercer did what they could to get video of other teams these coaches have coached going back to Bethel College, etc., but that's like trying to describe an elephant with your eyes closed and only touching it's tail. This is then carried over to the Players. "Coach, where's my scouting report?" "Coach, what are #3's go-to at-the-snap techniques when he's in press man coverage?" When you're used to having voluminous details on your opponents and you got dick, it throws off every aspect of preparation. All of you who have Coached High School level and above know that. On the other hand, UNA had everything they needed to know about Mercer. Totally not a good situation for the Bears.

3) Uniquely difficult to execute - Mercer's Offense is what FUBeAR would call 'highly stylized.' If fact, it's way too stylized for FUBeAR's taste. FUBeAR prefers running Toss Sweep and A-Gap Power until they prove they can stop it. But Mercer's Offense relies on a myriad of formations, shifts, and motions (at tempo) to get the Defense to make mistakes pre-snap with their reactions to all of this 'noise' and exploiting the mismatches realized. With normal preparation, this Offense can be very effective - #1 in the SoCon last year, but without proper preparation, it is way more 'hamstrung' than less 'stylized' Offenses. Since all of you Coaches watched the game so closely, you undoubtedly noticed Mercer doing the "check with me" thing after a 1st shift on almost every Offensive Play. They don't do that normally and that removes almost any chance of using the tempo changes they use so successfully. This could certainly 'bite' the Bears in the future as it did on Saturday, but it's hard for FUBeAR to imagine a scenario when they would have less opportunity to be prepared than this one was. Kinda that ugly 'perfect storm' thing.

4) Conditions / Motivation- Don't be a dork and say 'both teams.' That's not the point. We are dissecting (like a ****in' CSI episode) Mercer's showing. FUBeAR played at UNC when it was 110 on the field one Saturday and he was seeing visions of monsters (or maybe that was just Lawrence Taylor) and wishing for Death to come take him. IT WAS SO ****ING HOT! Really cannot imagine what 120 field temp was like. FUBeAR didn't attend, but he has heard of melting shoe soles from those who did. And FUBeAR never faced these weather/lightning delays as a Player cuz we just played thru 'em (see - told ya - Boomer!), but has as a Coach and THEY SUCK. If FUBeAR was playing in a game where he was far less mentally (information-wise) prepared to play, in 120 field temp, and then had an hour weather delay...pretty sure he would have (mysteriously) strained a hamstring during the break - too rapidly backing away for the urinal or some such mishap. They should give out hazardous duty NIL payments to any Players that finished that game.

Again - FUBeAR understands that these situations/conditions would not have affected in any way the performance that all of you world-class athletes would have been able to deliver and you award-winning Coaches would have had no difficulty pulling a premier performance out of your Teams with no way to prepare and with those conditions, but FUBeAR (and he guesses Mercer's Players and Coaches) just are not able to meet the standards which you expect from them....in this 1 game on this 1 day.
It was 131 on the field for Jax State. Didn't seem to slow us down any.

Maybe it's less about the temperature and more about the fact Mercer just isn't that good.

Forecast for Oxford Saturday is only 89 so Mercer shouldn't have any issue putting Ole Miss away.

[JSUSoutherner]

JFC. A fair number of people did drop NDSU in their polls after that game. I am sure I probably did. I also have news for you, Mercer is not NDSU, proven program performance does make a difference in people’s minds
NDSU may have some Nattys...

But Mercer beat Auburn in TOP last season.

Show some respect.

[Reign of Terrier]

wont

Has regionalization or home field changed significantly since 2017 or so? I'd guess you were just younger (a young terrier xthumbsupx ), more enthusiastic and perhaps less jaded(?) then. These internet arguments have almost never settled anything. If you're not interested in filling out a poll, or less interested in participating in the forum, it's probably more about your time availability and maybe changes in interest than the playoff format IMO.

But I will agree that arguing for second place (i.e. after NDSU dynasty started) is often not as fun as when the arguments include the top spot. Also, there were some characters in the old days on this board that were entertaining.

Maybe we are in the beginning of a phase where NDSU is not always the favorite?

App, GSU, ODU and others left the subdivision in 2013. 2014-2015 the southern Conference was pretty down, and arguably the CAA was too, the MVFC was really emerging at that time. 2016 was when we saw a rebound by the CAA (with JMU emerging as a super team) and the Socon has a pretty balanced conference.

(I'm using these two conferences as frame of reference because outside of them + the Big Sky + MVFC and JSU, there's no expectation of consistent champs in other conferences, but also bc I know them)

Top of my head, the current format of the playoffs changed in 2023, from 22 to 24 teams, where half the field got a bye (10 teams) as opposed to 1/3.

In 2012, if you were a socon team or southern CAA team, or even an OVC team, you had a good shot of having a bye in the playoffs. If you didn't, you had a good shot of playing a variation of teams in your first and second round game.

2016-2018 or so, everything is kinda novel, but it turns repetitive come 2019 or so: Get a bye/play a conference opponent, and then get shipped out west. If you get a seed, face a conference opponent and possibly get shipped out west. The formula of the playoffs haven't changed and the same teams are at the top consistently. So if you're a southern team (not just a socon team) you can bet on the boring format of (at best) attending a poorly attended game at home on Thanksgiving and then sending your team to lose our west.

The FCS is pretty boring because of its predictability. And neither NDSU nor SDSU isn't going to fade, as the region of the country they exist in is scarce of FBS teams.

The only people who think the FCS playoffs isn't boring or predictable are the MVFC teams who can win it all (really just two of them) and the Big Sky teams who get the optimal fan experience because of regionalization and seed inflation (I'll be cold dead in the ground before I acknowledge UC Davis or Sacramento State as FCS powers) who get to host multiple games (where they often choke, or win and also get shipped to Fargo).

I don't fill out a poll anymore because there's really no need. Wofford hasn't played a Big Sky team in 15 years, The socon hasn't played a non-NDSU MVFC team since 2016. And I'd say 4 times out of 5, the eastern team goes to the big sky, not vice versa, at a time of year when the weather changes quite radically.

Put simply, we don't have good information gathering and the playoff format optimizes for minimizing travel (which so happens to benefit 1-2 conferences most), not the most entertaining product. There's a reason why Hero sports is reporting on possibly changes to the format. It's stale and boring. And dick measuring as we see in this thread is so pointless because it's an insoluble discussion. Who knows how Mercer would do in the Big Sky or MVFC? Because they'll never get them at home in the playoffs and will likely only play Montana State or the Dakota States.

AGS isn't the place it used to be, and that's fine. But it's not because I've gotten older, it's because the FCS is a lot more stagnant than it was from 2000-2010 (which IMO was golden age)

[atthewbon]

The playoff regionalization and being able to buy first round games is not ideal. I know some have argued that seeding the top 16 won't change anything, but I think it would help some of the problems that are being discussed, namely the receptive matchups in the playoffs and the advantage schools get in the first round by spending money. It's a shame it won't be like that this year.

[FUBeAR]

JFC. A fair number of people did drop NDSU in their polls after that game. I am sure I probably did. I also have news for you, Mercer is not NDSU, proven program performance does make a difference in people’s minds
Look at you - a man of your word. After a victory by half as much as Mercer’s was over a UNA-equivalent ISUb Team, you did ding the bizuns…1 spot…


We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 10/2/2022 18:54:07

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana Grizzlies
3: Sac State Hornets
4: North Dakota State Bison

POD Knows

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 10/9/2022 20:31:52

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Sac State Hornets
3: Weber State Wildcats
4: Montana Grizzlies
5: North Dakota State Bison

POD Knows

…and re-reading your posts in this thread, all you have really said, beyond your perception of the game, is that you believe Mercer underperformed their ranking.

Fair enough.

That’s not at all an unreasonable ‘take.’ It was not an ‘artistic success’ and questions that existed around the change in QB and the depth at RB were not entirely positively answered.

While FUBeAR doesn’t think he would do it - depending upon the various results this coming TH & SAT, FUBeAR would not quarrel with a voter who sees fit to drop the Bears a spot or 2 after a win - as you did with the bizuns last season.

But, your reasonable commentary has been more than overshadowed by others here and, as previously noted, the many various FCS Pundits, Pollsters, Podcasters, and Prognosticators who have clamored to inflict their 23 stab wounds into the Mercer Football program…after a double digit WIN over a fully-scholarshipped FCS opponent.

Only issue FUBeAR might have with your takes here, POD, is ‘the news’ you shared that NDSU is ENTITLED to some sort of ‘leniency’ or ‘pass’ from voters because of historical performance reaching as far as a decade into the past. It would very hard to get FUBeAR to understand why a weekly poll focused on ranking Teams THIS season would ‘reach back’ more than 6-10 games to comparatively evaluate Teams in the week of the evaluation during A season. FUBeAR understands people do it, but that doesn’t make it not stupid.

[JSUSoutherner]

Look at you - a man of your word. After a victory by half as much as Mercer’s was over a UNA-equivalent ISUb Team, you did ding the bizuns…1 spot…




…and re-reading your posts in this thread, all you have really said, beyond your perception of the game, is that you believe Mercer underperformed their ranking.

Fair enough.

That’s not at all an unreasonable ‘take.’ It was not an ‘artistic success’ and questions that existed around the change in QB and the depth at RB were not entirely positively answered.

While FUBeAR doesn’t think he would do it - depending upon the various results this coming TH & SAT, FUBeAR would not quarrel with a voter who sees fit to drop the Bears a spot or 2 after a win - as you did with the bizuns last season.

But, your reasonable commentary has been more than overshadowed by others here and, as previously noted, the many various FCS Pundits, Pollsters, Podcasters, and Prognosticators who have clamored to inflict their 23 stab wounds into the Mercer Football program…after a double digit WIN over a fully-scholarshipped FCS opponent.

Only issue FUBeAR might have with your takes here, POD, is ‘the news’ you shared that NDSU is ENTITLED to some sort of ‘leniency’ or ‘pass’ from voters because of historical performance reaching as far as a decade into the past. It would very hard to get FUBeAR to understand why a weekly poll focused on ranking Teams THIS season would ‘reach back’ more than 6-10 games to comparatively evaluate Teams in the week of the evaluation during A season. FUBeAR understands people do it, but that doesn’t make it not stupid.
Must be a slow night over there at the Subway

[POD Knows]

Look at you - a man of your word. After a victory by half as much as Mercer’s was over a UNA-equivalent ISUb Team, you did ding the bizuns…1 spot…




…and re-reading your posts in this thread, all you have really said, beyond your perception of the game, is that you believe Mercer underperformed their ranking.

Fair enough.

That’s not at all an unreasonable ‘take.’ It was not an ‘artistic success’ and questions that existed around the change in QB and the depth at RB were not entirely positively answered.

While FUBeAR doesn’t think he would do it - depending upon the various results this coming TH & SAT, FUBeAR would not quarrel with a voter who sees fit to drop the Bears a spot or 2 after a win - as you did with the bizuns last season.

But, your reasonable commentary has been more than overshadowed by others here and, as previously noted, the many various FCS Pundits, Pollsters, Podcasters, and Prognosticators who have clamored to inflict their 23 stab wounds into the Mercer Football program…after a double digit WIN over a fully-scholarshipped FCS opponent.

Only issue FUBeAR might have with your takes here, POD, is ‘the news’ you shared that NDSU is ENTITLED to some sort of ‘leniency’ or ‘pass’ from voters because of historical performance reaching as far as a decade into the past. It would very hard to get FUBeAR to understand why a weekly poll focused on ranking Teams THIS season would ‘reach back’ more than 6-10 games to comparatively evaluate Teams in the week of the evaluation during A season. FUBeAR understands people do it, but that doesn’t make it not stupid.And I also had them 4th in the one poll, I dinged them for a close AWAY loss at an FBS school that they should have beaten. I only said that I may drop Mercer a couple spots, it really depends on what happens this weekend. I had NDSU second in my preseason poll, I will assure you that if they stink up the bed, even with a W over EWU, they might drop as well.

As to your last paragraph, you have to look back at teams and look at their history but also look at what they have now. The issue is that most teams that perform year after year generally do not have large dropoffs year to year, that is why they get placed higher because they are KNOWN and have delivered with consistency.

[Reign of Terrier]

The playoff regionalization and being able to buy first round games is not ideal. I know some have argued that seeding the top 16 won't change anything, but I think it would help some of the problems that are being discussed, namely the receptive matchups in the playoffs and the advantage schools get in the first round by spending money. It's a shame it won't be like that this year.

I was thinking about this last night, and I actually think seeding the top 16 would solve pretty much everything? I referenced this my long ass post to Catbooster, but I think the thing that really set the subdivision into boring mode was the combination of like 2-4 teams ascending into stratospheric heights in combination with the playoff format.

I think everything changed in 2013 - when they changed the format, but we didn't really notice it until 2017 or 2018 when new equilibriums of the FCS were established. JMU ascended, the Socon elevated itself after a few years down post-App/GSU, the CAA and Big Sky grew and the effects of regionalization were more saliently seen.

Namely, the current playoff format does a few predictable things that make it uninteresting:
1) Constant rematches in the early rounds - not just in conference rematches during a season, but regional rematches across years (Wofford playing KSU, and Furman playing Elon multiple times is a good example; I'm sure MVFC and Big Sky folks have other examples they can name)
2) The lack of a bye on thanksgiving weekend for most teams, combined with the hosting dynamics of seeds. Even if your team plays in the first round of the playoffs, the atmosphere isn't fun (thanksgiving attendance is always bad), is against a too-familiar opponent, and then when you win you're shipped across the country, likely to one of the super teams you'll lose to.
3) Because of 1 & 2, repetitive opponents and predictable outcomes

I think more seeds and more byes actually fixes most of these problems. I think the pre-2013 format (20 teams, 12 had a bye, 5th seed plays against a set opponent) actually fixed these problems by giving more teams byes and less teams set-home-field advantage. The problem with more teams in the bracket is more teams need to travel, which eats into the money side of things. So naturally, with more teams and that mindset, you're going to have more regional playoffs. And it's boring.

Going off memory, under the 16 and 20 team format, the playoffs were just so much more fun, because Wofford went all over the place: we traveled to Montana, JMU, and UNI in first round games. We played Jacksonville State one year. It was extremely novel to host Georgia Southern in 2010! We smacked New Hampshire once (that was fun), we hosted richmond in a second round game.

All of these matchups are pretty much unreasonable to happen outside of a quarterfinal where Wofford will almost certainly go on the road. Wofford made the playoffs 5 of 6 years between 2007 and 2012 and the above were the fun matchups. Between 2016 and 2019, we made it four straight; the only fun bracket was 2016 when we beat the Citadel and made it to Youngstown. Since 2017, Wofford's played Furman, Kennesaw State, Elon, and NDSU. A seeded Socon team always get sent to NDSU and until they moved up to FBS had to tangle with KSU in the first or second round, and more contemporarily has to play Elon. It would be one thing if this was a stretch of like 1-2 years, but it's literally happened for 5 or 6. Compare that to the variation of the previous stint.

I think seeding teams will solve part of this; I think we should seed the top 16 or so (maybe not the full 24) and start the playoffs the week after thanksgiving. That's all I want.

[OhioHen]

I think seeding teams will solve part of this; I think we should seed the top 16 or so (maybe not the full 24) and start the playoffs the week after thanksgiving. That's all I want.
In theory, yes it would help. In practice, the eight home teams in Round 1 are already essentially seeds 9-16. There's nothing to stop the committee from "seeding" teams so that they maintain regionalization in Rounds 1 and 2, which is where we are today.

[ElCid]

In theory, yes it would help. In practice, the eight home teams in Round 1 are already essentially seeds 9-16. There's nothing to stop the committee from "seeding" teams so that they maintain regionalization in Rounds 1 and 2, which is where we are today.

Yup. Anyone thinking that seeding will fix it, is fooling themselves. The seeds choices WILL be influenced by travel $, if it isn't so obvious as to elicit an outcry.

[MSUBobcat]

In theory, yes it would help. In practice, the eight home teams in Round 1 are already essentially seeds 9-16. There's nothing to stop the committee from "seeding" teams so that they maintain regionalization in Rounds 1 and 2, which is where we are today.

That's not entirely true. The winning bid basically buys seeds 9-16. Sure, the matchups would still be arranged for regionalization, but if anyone thought Montana was a top 16 team last year, I'd like to meet them.

[Reign of Terrier]

Yup. Anyone thinking that seeding will fix it, is fooling themselves. The seeds choices WILL be influenced by travel $, if it isn't so obvious as to elicit an outcry.

This is hilariously defeatist. Seeding is really the only solution available short of just having affirmative action for each conference to be able to host.

This is just whiney anti-institutionalism, whining for the sake of whining as if there's no realistic solution and "they're all corrupt" blah blah. If NDSU as the one seed *must* play the winner of the 16 seed bracket, that bails out MVFC teams who may be slated for that traditionally. If the socon has one team in the top 8, and the other in the top 16, the likelihood of the two best teams (think 2017 eliminating themselves early) eliminating themselves drops. All the while, there's a paper trail of measurable trends. It's a lot easier to demonstrate a corrupt process when there's numbered seeding and the same teams happen to be seeded to play each other than the current set up.

In reality the NCAA is explicitly pursuing seeding as a solution to cut down on regionalization. They know it's a problem, and so they're looking to reform the format to cut down on it. The only issue is money as the playoff already loses it, but they're looking to pursue a better media deal. There's an article on it that was published over the summer.

[Reign of Terrier]

That's not entirely true. The winning bid basically buys seeds 9-16. Sure, the matchups would still be arranged for regionalization, but if anyone thought Montana was a top 16 team last year, I'd like to meet them.

Seeding 1-16 wouldn't totally eliminate regionalization, but it would reduce it. And if the selection committee does as they used to and have a mandated top 16 ranking for transparency purposes, the deliberate seeding for $$$ can be more transparently called out and prevent it. Transparency is the best disinfectant, as is putting numbers to values a committee favors. What's annoying about the playoff selection of the last few years is that it's been both predictable and unpredictable for the worse

[ElCid]

This is hilariously defeatist. Seeding is really the only solution available short of just having affirmative action for each conference to be able to host.

This is just whiney anti-institutionalism, whining for the sake of whining as if there's no realistic solution and "they're all corrupt" blah blah. If NDSU as the one seed *must* play the winner of the 16 seed bracket, that bails out MVFC teams who may be slated for that traditionally. If the socon has one team in the top 8, and the other in the top 16, the likelihood of the two best teams (think 2017 eliminating themselves early) eliminating themselves drops. All the while, there's a paper trail of measurable trends. It's a lot easier to demonstrate a corrupt process when there's numbered seeding and the same teams happen to be seeded to play each other than the current set up.

In reality the NCAA is explicitly pursuing seeding as a solution to cut down on regionalization. They know it's a problem, and so they're looking to reform the format to cut down on it. The only issue is money as the playoff already loses it, but they're looking to pursue a better media deal. There's an article on it that was published over the summer.

You know it and I know it. For example, if two teams are possible seeds as # 12 and 13. Their assignment will be influenced by travel costs. If a team, as #12, has a trip of 300 miles, or as #13, a trip of 2500 miles, what seed do you think they will be assigned? You can call it defeatist if you want. But realistic is a much more accurate description. You can't be this naive. As the assignment of seeds is hugely subjective, the idea of corruption is ridiculous. Assignment of seeds is nothing but shades of gray.
And I certainly didn't say it wasn't a good path to try. It might improve the process slightly, but I think those expecting a huge change will be disappointed.

[FUBeAR]

Previously, FUBeAR has posted that seeding additional Teams would have no effect OR negative effect on the Playoffs.

He has, since, rethought that position. Assuming the 24 Teams, 8 1st round BYES structure is unchangeable, then FUBeAR has determined that seeding Teams 1-12 is preferable to only seeding 8 Teams.

Seeding ‘more’ makes sense for all of the reasons already cited, so FUBeAR won’t repeat those.

But only seeding 12 vs. 16 makes sense because it is highly likely that Teams 17-24 could have a better / easier / more profitable/less costly Playoff route/experience than Teams seeded 13-16.

So, in the revised FUBeAR plan…

Teams 9-12 would get their Seed AND ‘right of 1st refusal’ to a 1st round home game with a standard ‘fixed fee’ vs. a bid to retain their ‘right’ of a 1st round home, but they could decline the home game and retain their Seed. What their Seed provides for them beyond the home game ‘right’ is locking in their 2nd Round opponent IF they win their 1st round game…

9 Seed locks in 8 Seed
10 Seed locks in 7 Seed
11 Seed locks in 6 Seed
12 Seed locks in 5 Seed

16 seed (if there was one) would lock in a 1st round home game on Thanksgiving weekend, BUT would also lock in the ‘right’ to play the rested #1 Seed on the road in Round 2. FUBeAR would prefer his Team play a somewhat regionalized Round 1 away game with a shot to Play the #8 Seed in Round 2. So, he would prefer unseeded to the #16 Seed.

FUBeAR thinks there is a disincentive for Teams to be Seeded 13-16 vs. unseeded.

Some additional mechanics to this, but as long as those 1st round games are Thanksgiving weekend, for many Teams there’s not enough value there to trade off a near certain 2nd round loss to having a better shot to go further in the Playoffs.

12 beats 8, but 16 is worse than 12 and quite possibly worse than 8. Anyone see this logic and agree?

[Reign of Terrier]

You know it and I know it. For example, if two teams are possible seeds as # 12 and 13. Their assignment will be influenced by travel costs. If a team, as #12, has a trip of 300 miles, or as #13, a trip of 2500 miles, what seed do you think they will be assigned? You can call it defeatist if you want. But realistic is a much more accurate description. You can't be this naive. As the assignment of seeds is hugely subjective, the idea of corruption is ridiculous. Assignment of seeds is nothing but shades of gray.
And I certainly didn't say it wasn't a good path to try. It might improve the process slightly, but I think those expecting a huge change will be disappointed.

My favorite boomer tactic on people trying to change things marginally for the better is telling them they won't work and that you're naive for trying (and implying you shouldn't) and unrealistic for believing it ever could. All it is is rhetoric or a just-so story that can't be argued with because it proposes no arguments and rejects all arguments out of principle.

The situation you're describing is extremely marginal, it's not really going to be a big deal. In a 16 of 24 team bracket that's going to be seeded, the play-in game for 16 would be regionalized (as would all games from 9-16). The 12 seed would be paired up with a non-seed and go to the 5 seed in the round of 16 game. It makes no sense to make the kind of tweaks you're describing in the round of 16 game, when historically 50%+ of the time, flights are almost a given.

When you look at the history of the playoffs for the last 5 years (probably longer) all of the quarterfinal games were flight games, and a considerable proportion of the round of 16 games were also flights. In that light, it seems pretty absurd that this format is in place without seeding. You can make an argument about the marginal value of maximizing bus-games, which is fine, but this "can't trust anything, it's all rigged, therefore we shouldn't try it" is dumb.

Transparency and measurement are the best tools against corruption and bad process. Maximal seeding (whether that be 16 or 24) and having a consistent committee poll release is the best way to build on the system and bring back some of the old magic of the playoff.

[Reign of Terrier]

Previously, FUBeAR has posted that seeding additional Teams would have no effect OR negative effect on the Playoffs.

He has, since, rethought that position. Assuming the 24 Teams, 8 1st round BYES structure is unchangeable, then FUBeAR has determined that seeding Teams 1-12 is preferable to only seeding 8 Teams.

Seeding ‘more’ makes sense for all of the reasons already cited, so FUBeAR won’t repeat those.

But only seeding 12 vs. 16 makes sense because it is highly likely that Teams 17-24 could have a better / easier / more profitable/less costly Playoff route/experience than Teams seeded 13-16.

So, in the revised FUBeAR plan…

Teams 9-12 would get their Seed AND ‘right of 1st refusal’ to a 1st round home game with a standard ‘fixed fee’ vs. a bid to retain their ‘right’ of a 1st round home, but they could decline the home game and retain their Seed. What their Seed provides for them beyond the home game ‘right’ is locking in their 2nd Round opponent IF they win their 1st round game…

9 Seed locks in 8 Seed
10 Seed locks in 7 Seed
11 Seed locks in 6 Seed
12 Seed locks in 5 Seed

16 seed (if there was one) would lock in a 1st round home game on Thanksgiving weekend, BUT would also lock in the ‘right’ to play the rested #1 Seed on the road in Round 2. FUBeAR would prefer his Team play a somewhat regionalized Round 1 away game with a shot to Play the #8 Seed in Round 2. So, he would prefer unseeded to the #16 Seed.

FUBeAR thinks there is a disincentive for Teams to be Seeded 13-16 vs. unseeded.

Some additional mechanics to this, but as long as those 1st round games are Thanksgiving weekend, for many Teams there’s not enough value there to trade off a near certain 2nd round loss to having a better shot to go further in the Playoffs.

12 beats 8, but 16 is worse than 12 and quite possibly worse than 8. Anyone see this logic and agree?

I just think we need to keep it simple, transparent and measurable. The old 16 game format IMO is better than 24 because the standards of teams to get a bid can just be better. So a 6-5 team getting in is unacceptable almost out of principle. But, we're not going back to the old process. For me, this is easy. There's usually only about 12-16 teams in any given season that clearly deserve a playoff bid (they're sitting at 8-3 or better, maybe 7-4 with a tough schedule). Every year, I would wager everyone always agrees on those teams getting in, while the last 4 are the controversial.

Seeding 2/3 of the field or even the full field removes ambiguity and imposes measurement. If you're one of those top 16, you deserve a playoff game at home, and if you're playing a conference opponent, it should be one that's a clear step down from you. In the current format, you could conceivably have the 9th and 10th best team play each other in the first round. It's bonkers.

My position has always been that if you're not in that clear-cut top 16, you shouldn't whine if you don't make the playoffs. You have to win your games. But having to play the same teams over and over again isn't a good reward for those top 16. At least 15 of those 16 teams are going to end up losing, and I do believe the postseason is to an extent a celebration of the season. If you're 17-24, your reward is being there. If you're 9-16, your reward is having a home game against an opponent you should likely beat. If you're 1-8, you get a bye.

At the end of the day the NCAA is whining about money when it has plenty. The NCAA is a non-profit organization, so I'm fully okay with doing the most penny-unwise solution (which would be seeding the whole field), but I think 16 is the best compromise.

[FUBeAR]

Seeding 24 would be fine from a ‘fairness’ (we boomers hate that word) standpoint, but seeding 12 provides more ‘fairness’ with some measure of regionalization attainable to contain costs.

As we have seen, seeding 8 sux and seeding 16 is problematic, as outlined in FUBeAR’s prior post.

[FUBeAR]

I just think we need to keep it simple, transparent and measurable. The old 16 game format IMO is better than 24 because the standards of teams to get a bid can just be better. So a 6-5 team getting in is unacceptable almost out of principle. But, we're not going back to the old process. For me, this is easy. There's usually only about 12-16 teams in any given season that clearly deserve a playoff bid (they're sitting at 8-3 or better, maybe 7-4 with a tough schedule). Every year, I would wager everyone always agrees on those teams getting in, while the last 4 are the controversial.

Seeding 2/3 of the field or even the full field removes ambiguity and imposes measurement. If you're one of those top 16, you deserve a playoff game at home, and if you're playing a conference opponent, it should be one that's a clear step down from you. In the current format, you could conceivably have the 9th and 10th best team play each other in the first round. It's bonkers.

My position has always been that if you're not in that clear-cut top 16, you shouldn't whine if you don't make the playoffs. You have to win your games. But having to play the same teams over and over again isn't a good reward for those top 16. At least 15 of those 16 teams are going to end up losing, and I do believe the postseason is to an extent a celebration of the season. If you're 17-24, your reward is being there. If you're 9-16, your reward is having a home game against an opponent you should likely beat. If you're 1-8, you get a bye.

At the end of the day the NCAA is whining about money when it has plenty. The NCAA is a non-profit organization, so I'm fully okay with doing the most penny-unwise solution (which would be seeding the whole field), but I think 16 is the best compromise.
You addressed a lot here, but FUBeAR doesn’t see where you addressed his thoughts on the disincentive of getting a 13-16 Seed within the 8 byes structure AND 1st round Playoff Games being Thanksgiving weekend.

You mentioned Top 16 Teams ‘deserving’ a home game…OK…Top 8 get a Bye AND a 2nd round Home Game (which is too much, IFBO…but within a 24 Team structure, kinda necessary)…and 9-12 get a Home game and a decent shot at winning in Round 2. But the value of a round 1 home game for a 13-16 seed may greatly pale in comparison vs. having a shot to play an 8 seed vs. a 1-4 seed in round 2.

Let’s say I’m an NEC Team - Call me StonyHillBrookMack with horrible attendance, but I’m really good. Do I want that 16 seed getting a home game that is going to cost me money to host for the 641 people that attend vs., say, unseeded Rhode Island and a ‘chance’ to play #1 Seed South Dakota State in Round 2 OR do I prefer to be unseeded and go ‘on the road’ to play, say, #9 seed New Hampshire with a shot to play @ #8 seed Holy Cross in Round 2?

[ElCid]

My favorite boomer tactic on people trying to change things marginally for the better is telling them they won't work and that you're naive for trying (and implying you shouldn't) and unrealistic for believing it ever could. All it is is rhetoric or a just-so story that can't be argued with because it proposes no arguments and rejects all arguments out of principle.

The situation you're describing is extremely marginal, it's not really going to be a big deal. In a 16 of 24 team bracket that's going to be seeded, the play-in game for 16 would be regionalized (as would all games from 9-16). The 12 seed would be paired up with a non-seed and go to the 5 seed in the round of 16 game. It makes no sense to make the kind of tweaks you're describing in the round of 16 game, when historically 50%+ of the time, flights are almost a given.

When you look at the history of the playoffs for the last 5 years (probably longer) all of the quarterfinal games were flight games, and a considerable proportion of the round of 16 games were also flights. In that light, it seems pretty absurd that this format is in place without seeding. You can make an argument about the marginal value of maximizing bus-games, which is fine, but this "can't trust anything, it's all rigged, therefore we shouldn't try it" is dumb.

Transparency and measurement are the best tools against corruption and bad process. Maximal seeding (whether that be 16 or 24) and having a consistent committee poll release is the best way to build on the system and bring back some of the old magic of the playoff.

It was simply an EXAMPLE to show that it may not fix what everyone wants fixed. Who knows what scenarios will crop up due to unintended consequences. And I never said it couldn't be fixed. I just don't think this will fix it to MOST people's satisfaction. And you will eventually learn that change, for the sake of change, isn't always good. This has this vibe. Sometimes it works. We will see if this actually fixes anything. I'm patient though. I'll give it a few, five years before I pass judgement. We need history.

[caribbeanhen]

There’s even more wind than usual blowing through the southern conference. You would think there was a hurricane out there or something

you guys in the path be safe now

[FUBeAR]

There’s even more wind than usual blowing through the southern conference. You would think there was a hurricane out there or something

you guys in the path be safe nowso…what do you think?

8, 12, 16, or 24?

…and, no, FUBeAR is not asking you to speculate how many new Teams the Coastal Atheltic Association will add this off-season….

Asking about the best number of teams to seed (balancing ‘fairness’ / reward for reg season success / and costs of travel/need for regionalization) in a 24 Team Playoff bracket with a bye week going to the Top 8 seeds, and round 1 home games going to 9-12 and/or 13-16. 17-20 would get away games, but would get, Round 1 opponents seeded lower than those that the 21-24 seeds would play in Round 1.

So…what’s is the correct number and why? (Show your work)

FUBeAR’s take(s)…

8 - Sux - We’ve seen it for a decade. It sux.

12 - Best overall - Not great, but better - reasons previously stated.

16 - No better than 8; maybe worse…disincentive to ‘get’ 13-16 seed

24 - Won’t happen due to cost & the Committee ain’t got time for this. They have a fabulous spread in their meeting room in a 5 star hotel that they need to demolish.

[Gil Dobie]

I dunno man, but from a Socon perspective, non-Dakota State Teams have been using it as a trump card toward anyone outside of like 2 conferences for like half a decade. Let us have this one!xlolx

I love my Socon brothers, FUBear not so much. Tries too hard to baffle us with his bs.

[OhioHen]

I love my Socon brothers, FUBear not so much. Tries too hard to enlighten us with intelligent points.
FYP

[Gil Dobie]

FYP

Like the Massey Poll.

[caribbeanhen]

Like the Massey Poll.

Let us know when you have a better record in the pickem games

[Gil Dobie]

Let us know when you have a better record in the pickem games

Who said anything about pickems, which I do ok. Massey does not determine the National champions as you all proclaim. I'll go with the playoff final results.

[crusader11]

Western Carolina really isn't receiving votes? I'm so surprised about that. They won their last three games of the season, one of which likely kept Chattanooga out of the playoffs, and played Furman to a 47-40 game on the road. Kerwin Bell has this program trending upward, IMO. Desmond Reid is going to have a big year, too.


Told you guys. Who was listening?

[The Cats]

Told you guys. Who was listening?

All the Catamount fans knew, but few others believed. This team will contend for the title, Furman & Mercer both have to come to Cullowhee to play, i'm sure neither team is now looking forward to a trip the mountains of North Carolina.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6WfM0cXWSQ

[caribbeanhen]

Told you guys. Who was listening?

I was but waiting as well

The wait is over it was right before your eyes