FCS Nation pre-season top 25

[caribbeanhen]

FCS NATION Preseason Top 25
1. SDSU
2. MT St
3. Furman
4. NDSU
5. Idaho
6. Samford
7. Holy Cross
8. UIW
9. W&M
10. SEMO
11. NCCU
12. Weber St
13. UND
14. Montana
15. Sac St
16. UNH
17. Mercer
18. UC Davis
19. JSU
20. SLU
21. EKU
22. Rich
23. YSU
24. URI
25. WCU

[MR. CHICKEN]

32886



.....FCS NATION......................................BRAWK!

[crusader11]

I think the guy that runs FCS NATION is a big Furman fan/alum, along with being a big proponent of the SoCon...so take this for what it's worth.

[The Cats]

I think the guy that runs FCS NATION is a big Furman fan/alum, along with being a big proponent of the SoCon...so take this for what it's worth.

I'm sure you say that in jest.... He hates furman, worse than i hate Appalachian.

How ever, he is a big SoCon supporter. But, that doesn't mean there's a problem with their ranking... Most of the poll voters on here are either big MVFC or Big Sky supporters, does that make the AGS poll invalid ????????????????

[caribbeanhen]

I think the guy that runs FCS NATION is a big Furman fan/alum, along with being a big proponent of the SoCon...so take this for what it's worth.

Is he a one man show?

like he’s the only voter?

definitely a Big Sky Southern bias in the poll

I do think Furman will be really good though

to high on media darlings Idaho

total disrespect to Southeastern Louisiana who beat them in playoffs

can’t fault him on Richmond as they lost a lot, but lots of people whiffed on them last year… blame Flo

and he slips Western Carolina in at 25… show me

[crusader11]

I'm sure you say that in jest.... He hates furman, worse than i hate Appalachian.

How ever, he is a big SoCon supporter. But, that doesn't mean there's a problem with their ranking... Most of the poll voters on here are either big MVFC or Big Sky supporters, does that make the AGS poll invalid ????????????????

Ah you're right....he's a Citadel guy, I think.

I don't think it's a bad poll, some schools too high (Furman, Idaho, NCCU, Jackson St), but it's the preseason, so all of this is just as much guess work as it is anything else.

I actually like seeing your Catamounts ranked in the top 25. When the AGS poll comes out, I'll be ranking them in the 22-25 range. They were a good team at the end of last season.

[FUBeAR]

I'm sure you say that in jest.... He hates furman, worse than i hate Appalachian.

How ever, he is a big SoCon supporter. But, that doesn't mean there's a problem with their ranking... Most of the poll voters on here are either big MVFC or Big Sky supporters, does that make the AGS poll invalid ????????????????
No - because MVFC and Big Sky fans are really smart and able to be completely objective.

On the other hand, SoCon fans, such as the leader of FCS Nation Radio, are really so dumb that they are deplorable. Their opinions are not worthy of consideration as FCS Football was invented by MVFC & Big Sky fans. In fact, FCS Nation Radio is malinformation that should be immediately deplatformed.

[crusader11]

Is he a one man show?

like he’s the only voter?



Think this guy is involved in some capacity -- https://twitter.com/LabanowitzStone

[The Cats]

No - because MVFC and Big Sky fans are really smart and able to be completely objective.

On the other hand, SoCon fans, such as the leader of FCS Nation Radio, are really so dumb that they are deplorable. Their opinions are not worthy of consideration as FCS Football was invented by MVFC & Big Sky fans. In fact, FCS Nation Radio is malinformation that should be immediately deplatformed.

Every once and a while, FuBeAR out does himself. This is one of those times...

[ElCid]

Is there a web site for these people? Can't find it. Where did you get the list?

[FUBeAR]

Ah you're right....he's a Citadel guy, I think.

I don't think it's a bad poll, some schools too high (Furman, Idaho, NCCU, Jackson St), but it's the preseason, so all of this is just as much guess work as it is anything else.

I actually like seeing your Catamounts ranked in the top 25. When the AGS poll comes out, I'll be ranking them in the 22-25 range. They were a good team at the end of last season.

Love to see your ‘case’ for THIS Furman Team being ranked too high.

Here’s what FUBeAR thinks FCS Nation Radio considered in order to rank Furman #3.

THIS Furman Team returns 8 Offensive Starters, 10 Defensive Starters, ALL Specialists Starters (8). 84% (47 of 56) of the Full 2-Deep returns. Key positions - roles where the few Starters were lost - TE, OL, DL - have been buttressed by just a few All-Conference-type FCS, D2 or FBS Players. Also 2 former starter-level Players at these positions return from injuries that kept them out of all or most of 2022.

Bottom Line - No reasonable reason to believe THIS Furman Team will not be better (or much better) than last year’s Furman Team.

Last year’s Furman Team lost 3 games
1) a competitive game vs. a Top 5 FBS Team.
2) a 1-score game vs FCS #6 Seed, with FU’s Starting & ‘Star’ QB out injured, that turned dramatically after a 15 minute delay and an official’s ruling that was so horribly wrong that the White Hat / Head Referee was fired by the SoCon, and the rest of the crew suspended, on the Monday following the game.
3) a game on the road vs. FCS #7 Seed that FU ‘had won’ (Victory Formation was 1 or 2 plays away) - except for a (legitimate) holding call because of a brief, slight, completely inconsequential and unnecessary tug on the back of a backside DLman’s jersey. This #7 Seed, that Furman ‘had beat’ then went on the road to defeat the #2 Seed, the best of the Big Sky, before going into Fargo against the #3 Seed and halfway thru the 4th quarter had a 73.3% chance of winning (per ESPN Analytics).

So - a 2022 Furman Team that one can reasonably assume to not have been as good as (or not nearly as good as) THIS 2023 Furman Team was clearly ‘in the mix’ and/or ‘right there’ with the Top 2, 3, 6, and 7 FCS Teams. Thus, it is not unreasonable to rank THIS Furman Team as high as #3.

What you got?

[crusader11]

Thanks for this post ^

I knew Furman was going to be preseason top ten for sure, but I didn't realize they bring back that many returning starters.

I'd still place Holy Cross (I am biased here...but so are you!) and Montana St above Furman, along with the Dakota States. I might also think about Samford ahead of Furman with Mike Hiers returning. Coin flip there for me.

[caribbeanhen]

Is there a web site for these people? Can't find it. Where did you get the list?

it was on twitter but I can’t get on Twitter right now because I don’t have account. Musk is tightening up .. no more freeloaders so I’m out

[caribbeanhen]

Try this

https://twitter.com/fcsnationradio1/status/1681038692172038144?s=46&t=4p0tRPfmr8Vg_pquooqVoA

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I know Fordham lost Demorat and other key contributors but the Rams deserve more love heading into the year imo. Especially when factoring in the general "meh" that often comprises the tail-end of the Top 25. It's a program that has proven to have some staying power too the last 10-20 years....

[lionsrking2]

Is he a one man show?

like he’s the only voter?

definitely a Big Sky Southern bias in the poll

I do think Furman will be really good though

to high on media darlings Idaho

total disrespect to Southeastern Louisiana who beat them in playoffs

can’t fault him on Richmond as they lost a lot, but lots of people whiffed on them last year… blame Flo

and he slips Western Carolina in at 25… show me

I don't care where folks rank us preseason, but if Samford, Idaho and UIW are top 10 then we're definitely top 10.

[The Cats]

Is there a web site for these people? Can't find it. Where did you get the list?

https://www.fcsnationradio.com/meet-the-team

[Professor Chaos]

About the only thing I know going into the preseason is that SDSU is really good and it's going to take some combination of bad fortune from them and good fortune from someone else for anyone to supplant them at #1. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

[caribbeanhen]

I don't care where folks rank us preseason, but if Samford, Idaho and UIW are top 10 then we're definitely top 10.

I totally agree

For me, these polls are mostly just to get the juices flowing for the season, it’s all fun and means very little

[caribbeanhen]

Is he a one man show?

like he’s the only voter?

definitely a Big Sky Southern bias in the poll

I do think Furman will be really good though

to high on media darlings Idaho

total disrespect to Southeastern Louisiana who beat them in playoffs

can’t fault him on Richmond as they lost a lot, but lots of people whiffed on them last year… blame Flo

and he slips Western Carolina in at 25… show me

Big Sky (https://bigskyconf.com/news/2023/7/23/montana-state-tabbed-preseason-football-favorites.aspx)
Coaches
1. Montana State (10) 120
2. UC Davis (1) 96
3. Sacramento State (1) 94
4. Weber State 91
5. Idaho 89
6. Montana 84
7. Eastern Washington 52
8. Portland State 45
9. Northern Arizona 44
10. Northern Colorado 37
11. Cal Poly 25
12. Idaho State 15

Media
1. Montana State (26) 447
2. Idaho (8) 410
3. Montana (2) 359
4. Sacramento State (3) 334
5. UC Davis 330
6. Weber State 320
7. Eastern Washington 216
8. Northern Arizona 178
9. Portland State 167
10. Northern Colorado 109
11. Cal Poly 103
12. Idaho State 69

It’s confirmed

[FUBeAR]

I don't care where folks rank us preseason, but if Samford, Idaho and UIW are top 10 then we're definitely top 10.
Not disagreeing because, via extensive data analysis, FUBeAR has realized that, much like many others underrate the SoCon, he has previously underrated the Southland and vows to recalibrate his opinion, based on actual data, rather than blindly following popular narratives.

So - yeah - Southeast Louisiana, vanquishers of UIW (the vanquishers of the #2 Seed Big Sky’s best), and vanquishers of everyone’s new Big Sky darlin’, Idaho, definitely merits serious Top 10 pre-season props for 2023.

That said…let us not fail to acknowledge that Southeast Louisiana’s close Playoff Loss to Samford, one of 4 Playoff-worthy SoCon Teams, occurred with Samford’s 1st Team All American, 2023 Payton Award favorite, QB, playing in a highly QB-Centric PASSING Offense, being replaced 5 plays into the game (due to prior-game injury) by a True Freshman with a total of all of 6 previous college pass attempts under his belt.

[caribbeanhen]

Not disagreeing because, via extensive data analysis, FUBeAR has realized that, much like many others underrate the SoCon, he has previously underrated the Southland and vows to recalibrate his opinion, based on actual data, rather than blindly following popular narratives.

So - yeah - Southeast Louisiana, vanquishers of UIW (the vanquishers of the #2 Seed Big Sky’s best), and vanquishers of everyone’s new Big Sky darlin’, Idaho, definitely merits serious Top 10 pre-season props for 2023.

That said…let us not fail to acknowledge that Southeast Louisiana’s close Playoff Loss to Samford, one of the SoCon’s Top 2-4 Teams, occurred with Samford’s 1st Team All American QB, playing in a highly QB-Centric Offense, being replaced 5 plays into the game (due to prior-game injury) by a True Freshman with a total of all of 6 previous college pass attempts under his belt.

Let your eyeballs be the judge unless your blind of course

[FUBeAR]

Let your eyeballs be the judge unless your blind of course
In the ‘gettin’ off the bus’ “eyeball test,” the Furman Teams with which FUBeAR was involved, that won 5 SoCon Championships, would have projected 0-11 every year.

So, that “eyeball test” is completely without merit. The ‘watch ‘em play’ “eyeball test” has considerably more value, but is not without its own shortcomings - levels of competition, style of play mismatches, unavailability of key players - come to mind.

Thus - watching games complemented by deep analytics achieves the most accurate assessment.

[caribbeanhen]

In the ‘gettin’ off the bus’ “eyeball test,” the Furman Teams with which FUBeAR was involved, that won 5 SoCon Championships, would have projected 0-11 every year.

So, that “eyeball test” is completely without merit. The ‘watch ‘em play’ “eyeball test” has considerably more value, but is not without its own shortcomings - levels of competition, style of play mismatches, unavailability of key players - come to mind.

Thus - watching games complemented by deep analytics achieves the most accurate assessment.

Yes
using your eyeballs means watch games, the “deep analytics” can get deep into something from the anal cavity

Let there be no mistake, CH is the least biased MF left on AGS

[lionsrking2]

Not disagreeing because, via extensive data analysis, FUBeAR has realized that, much like many others underrate the SoCon, he has previously underrated the Southland and vows to recalibrate his opinion, based on actual data, rather than blindly following popular narratives.

So - yeah - Southeast Louisiana, vanquishers of UIW (the vanquishers of the #2 Seed Big Sky’s best), and vanquishers of everyone’s new Big Sky darlin’, Idaho, definitely merits serious Top 10 pre-season props for 2023.

That said…let us not fail to acknowledge that Southeast Louisiana’s close Playoff Loss to Samford, one of 4 Playoff-worthy SoCon Teams, occurred with Samford’s 1st Team All American, 2023 Payton Award favorite, QB, playing in a highly QB-Centric PASSING Offense, being replaced 5 plays into the game (due to prior-game injury) by a True Freshman with a total of all of 6 previous college pass attempts under his belt.

He wouldn't have played any better than the kid who did play so it's a wash. You prepare for one guy and get somebody else. Besides, we were missing guys too that we get back. Bottom line is we played one of our two or three worst games of the year and still should have won.

[FUBeAR]

He wouldn't have played any better than the kid who did play so it's a wash. You prepare for one guy and get somebody else. Besides, we were missing guys too that we get back. Bottom line is we played one of our two or three worst games of the year and still should have won.
LOL

[atthewbon]

It’s the preseason so I think you can make a good argument for a lot of teams. I’d personally have NDSU at 2 because they have been able to prove it for so long but this poll seems reasonable.

The guy who made this poll went onto Sam Herder’s fcs podcast and among other topics discussed this poll, it’s worth a listen IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gil Dobie]

I won't be surprised if NDSU finishes below Furman this year. If they don't, Furmie is having a bad season.

[ElonFirefighter]

Is there a web site for these people? Can't find it. Where did you get the list?

Its on the wall in FUBeARs basement at his moms house. JK

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the guy that runs FCS NATION is a big Furman fan/alum, along with being a big proponent of the SoCon...so take this for what it's worth.

LMFAO


(He went to the Citadel)

Also, just remember folks: preseason rankings are all for clicks and magazine purchases, especially at this level. It's actually not invalid at higher levels because of the volume of data points that help inform rankings (cross-conference competition, more accurate recruiting rankings, as FCS recruiting is a crap shoot, higher quality coaching in the top 25, among other things).

If we did everything rationally I sincerely believe we wouldn't rank anyone until half way through the season. There's too much status quo bias, there's too much over-valuing of *what round* you lost in the playoffs, as opposed to *to whom, where, and in what manner* that inherently biases some conferences over others in rankings. All the while, our data points are just bad in comparison.

[ElCid]

it was on twitter but I can’t get on Twitter right now because I don’t have account. Musk is tightening up .. no more freeloaders so I’m out

ElCid, Twitter and FB-free, and any other corporate site for that matter, since forever.

[FUBeAR]

Its on the wall in FUBeARs basement at his moms house. JK
Mama FUBeAR turns 92 today - in her basement-less home 2 states away from FUBeAR’s den.

Happy Birthday Mama FUBeAR!!!

[FUBeAR]

If we did everything rationally…

* We wouldn't rank anyone until half way through the season.
——- * There's too much status quo bias
——- * There's too much over-valuing of *when* you lost in the playoffs, as opposed to…
————— * to whom
————— * where
————— * and in what manner…
…that inherently biases some conferences over others in rankings.
* All the while, our data points are just bad in comparison.

FUBeAR is printing this, framing it, and hanging it on the wall in his Mom’s basement.

[Redbird 4th & short]

LMFAO


(He went to the Citadel)

Also, just remember folks: preseason rankings are all for clicks and magazine purchases, especially at this level. It's actually not invalid at higher levels because of the volume of data points that help inform rankings (cross-conference competition, more accurate recruiting rankings, as FCS recruiting is a crap shoot, higher quality coaching in the top 25, among other things).

If we did everything rationally I sincerely believe we wouldn't rank anyone until half way through the season. There's too much status quo bias, there's too much over-valuing of *when* you lost in the playoffs, as opposed to *to whom, where, and in what manner* that inherently biases some conferences over others in rankings. All the while, our data points are just bad in comparison.

This makes the right point. So while we have to have pre and early season rankings, no matter how premature they may be, it is not until mid season before it becomes the right time to start taking them more seriously. It is when we know more subjectively and objectively with computers as the databases become much more statistically well connected. I just wish we had an objective SOS method/system that polls, computers, and selection committees could rely on objectively. This would help immensely. We need a group like Massey to come up with something that becomes the standard for SOS ... a more credible composite. So right now for FCS they have about 40 rankings by end of season. There are like 10 signifcant outliers that should be tossed. Then just use this more credible composite for SOS ... I don't like Massey SOS by itself, late in season .. other than how convenient it is to lose. But later in season, it is biased toward their own formula and becomes self perpetuating by end of season.

[caribbeanhen]

FUBeAR is printing this, framing it, and hanging it on the wall in his Mom’s basement.

Hey, Happy birthday to mother FUBeAR !!

just curious if you were able to get her account set up so she can vote for Furman in the AGS Poll? 😂

[FUBeAR]

Hey, Happy birthday to mother FUBeAR !!

just curious if you were able to get her account set up so she can vote for Furman in the AGS Poll? 
Woulda done that…but she fairly recently told me that when FUBeAR was playing for FU and playing against NC State, she was cheering for NC State to win…because that’s her Team. Cheering against her own flesh & blood! Can y’all believe that.

She can’t be trusted to properly vote for Furman & Mercer, so FUBeAR blocked her PC from being able to access AGS.

[caribbeanhen]

Woulda done that…but she fairly recently told me that when FUBeAR was playing for FU and playing against NC State, she was cheering for NC State to win…because that’s her Team. Cheering against her own flesh & blood! Can y’all believe that.

She can’t be trusted to properly vote for Furman & Mercer, so FUBeAR blocked her PC from being able to access AGS.

HaHa

and seeing you got whipped 26-0, good for mom rooting against Furman!!!

[Reign of Terrier]

This makes the right point. So while we have to have pre and early season rankings, no matter how premature they may be, it is not until mid season before it becomes the right time to start taking them more seriously. It is when we know more subjectively and objectively with computers as the databases become much more statistically well connected. I just wish we had an objective SOS method/system that polls, computers, and selection committees could rely on objectively. This would help immensely. We need a group like Massey to come up with something that becomes the standard for SOS ... a more credible composite. So right now for FCS they have about 40 rankings by end of season. There are like 10 signifcant outliers that should be tossed. Then just use this more credible composite for SOS ... I don't like Massey SOS by itself, late in season .. other than how convenient it is to lose. But later in season, it is biased toward their own formula and becomes self perpetuating by end of season.

I just don't think this level of accuracy/certainty is possible at the FCS level for a game like football. Too many off the field obstacles like money and the fact that there's only 2 real OOC games per year. This is why I'm a bigger fan of just looking at how teams win games and not penalizing teams for not playing in conference x.

Like, I will fully concede that the MVFC and Big Sky are ahead of everyone else, I just don't think the gap is as big as some people would think (outside of the top). And I'm not saying that derail us into an argument about how much better those conferences are, but to just point out how uncertain and flawed the tools we use at assessing them, and I think for the spirit of the game, it would be more fun to embrace more uncertainty.

[Sir William]

HaHa

and seeing you got whipped 26-0, good for mom rooting against Furman!!!

Yeah, but not 3 and 4 seasons later...34-30 and 42-20 Paladins, respectively.

FUBeAR, I was at that 1982 game, and the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. Must have been sitting next to Mama Bear, because there was this wild lady screaming for the Pack but wearing Diamond F earrings, and I could've sworn she had a SHS tattoo on her left arm! xthumbsupx

[ElCid]

Mama FUBeAR turns 92 today - in her basement-less home 2 states away from FUBeAR’s den.

Happy Birthday Mama FUBeAR!!!

Nice. Got my 93 year old dad sitting right next to me. Got to get him moving. Hate him sitting too much.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah, but not 3 and 4 seasons later...34-30 and 42-20 Paladins, respectively.

[2 and 3 seasons later - ‘84 & ‘85 - FUBeAR]

FUBeAR, I was at that 1982 game, and the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. Must have been sitting next to Mama Bear, because there was this wild lady screaming for the Pack but wearing Diamond F earrings, and I could've sworn she had a SHS tattoo on her left arm! xthumbsupx
Yeah…0-0 @ half … but fumbled punt deep, quick Pack TD, fumbled ensuing kickoff, quick Pack TD will turn a 0-0 game into a 26-0 game pretty dang quickly.

Didn’t matter really, unless we coulda scored on Defense. That Monte Kiffin / Pete Carroll-Coached & Vaughan Johnson-led Wolfpack Defense had the Paladin O completely stymied all night.

Sounds like that may have been FUBeAR’s Grandmother you were sitting beside - the ink gave it away, but she musta been drunk cuz she wasn’t a Wolfpack fan. Cedartown, GA native loved her Yellow Jackets and Coach Pepper Rogers. She was VERY upset when FUBeAR decided he didn’t want to be an Engineer and Coach Pepper stopped calling her once a week. Hmmm…maybe she WAS cheering for the Pack cuz she was still mad at FUBeAR.

Y’know…this dang thread may send FUBeAR to counseling.

[caribbeanhen]

Nice. Got my 93 year old dad sitting right next to me. Got to get him moving. Hate him sitting too much.

maybe he needs Mother FUBarS phone number haha 😛

[caribbeanhen]

Yeah…0-0 @ half … but fumbled punt deep, quick Pack TD, fumbled ensuing kickoff, quick Pack TD will turn a 0-0 game into a 26-0 game pretty dang quickly.

Didn’t matter really, unless we coulda scored on Defense. That Monte Kiffin / Pete Carroll-Coached & Vaughan Johnson-led Wolfpack Defense had the Paladin O completely stymied all night.

Sounds like that may have been FUBeAR’s Grandmother you were sitting beside - the ink gave it away, but she musta been drunk cuz she wasn’t a Wolfpack fan. Cedartown, GA native loved her Yellow Jackets and Coach Pepper Rogers. She was VERY upset when FUBeAR decided he didn’t want to be an Engineer and Coach Pepper stopped calling her once a week. Hmmm…maybe she WAS cheering for the Pack cuz she was still mad at FUBeAR.

Y’know…this dang thread may send FUBeAR to counseling.

I see that 1982 season got you in the playoffs where you promptly got beat by South Carolina state… the very next week South Carolina St got beat by Louisiana Tech

The very next week, and because I was too young to drink, I made my way over too the Sears & Roebuk at the local mall in Mobile, Alabama to watch the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens on National TV. Lead by FB Dan Reeder, they put away Louisiana Tech in the FCS 1AA semi final game 17 to 0. At one point the appliance salesmen switched the channel off the game and I promptly told him hey… don’t touch that again. The game was played in a monsoon. One of the biggest regrets I have today is not making it over to Ruston, Louisiana to see that game in person but my 1976 Plymouth Arrow had been overheating and I knew it wasn’t gonna be able to make the trip.

[FUBeAR]

I see that 1982 season got you in the playoffs where you promptly got beat by South Carolina state… the very next week South Carolina St got beat by Louisiana Tech

The very next week, and because I was too young to drink, I made my way over too the Sears & Roebuk at the local mall in Mobile, Alabama to watch the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens on National TV. Lead by FB Dan Reeder, they put away Louisiana Tech in the FCS 1AA semi final game 17 to 0. At one point the appliance salesmen switched the channel off the game and I promptly told him hey… don’t touch that again. The game was played in a monsoon. One of the biggest regrets I have today is not making it over to Ruston, Louisiana to see that game in person but my 1976 Plymouth Arrow had been overheating and I knew it wasn’t gonna be able to make the trip.SC State was smart. They just played us Press Man coverage and put 8 or 9 in the box. Our WR’s weren’t athletic enough to get open (at least one of their DB’s went NFL, but thinking possibly 2 or 3 of ‘em did) and we couldn’t establish our Running game with the box stacked with really good Players. QB tried to force the ball in and threw a Pick 6, plus another INT. Also - their crowd & band pretty much took away the home field advantage we had always enjoyed in Paladin Stadium. It was the 1st game (ever, perhaps) between an in-state D1 Team and this traditional HBCU. Let’s just say…it was VERY important to ‘the community’ to make a strong showing at Furman. As FUBeAR’s OLine Coach, the greatest OLine Coach in the whole United world, Robbie Caldwell, put it…

”We was outmanned, outfanned, and out-band!”

Don’t know anything about how LaTech boat-raced ‘em, but they musta learned some things from our film…and FUBeAR doubts the 7k-8k Bulldog fans that were in GVL made the trip to Ruston, LA.

[caribbeanhen]

SC State was smart. They just played us Press Man coverage and put 8 or 9 in the box. Our WR’s weren’t athletic enough to get open (at least one of their DB’s went NFL, but thinking possibly 2 or 3 of ‘em did) and we couldn’t establish our Running game with the box stacked with really good Players. QB tried to force the ball in and threw a Pick 6, plus another INT. Also - their crowd & band pretty much took away the home field advantage we had always enjoyed in Paladin Stadium. It was the 1st game (ever, perhaps) between an in-state D1 Team and this traditional HBCU. Let’s just say…it was VERY important to ‘the community’ to make a strong showing at Furman. As FUBeAR’s OLine Coach, the greatest OLine Coach in the whole United world, Robbie Caldwell, put it…

”We was outmanned, outfanned, and out-band!”

Don’t know anything about how LaTech boat-raced ‘em, but they musta learned some things from our film…and FUBeAR doubts the 7k-8k Bulldog fans that were in GVL made the trip to Ruston, LA.

some good history right there

thanks for sharing

[Redbird 4th & short]

I just don't think this level of accuracy/certainty is possible at the FCS level for a game like football. Too many off the field obstacles like money and the fact that there's only 2 real OOC games per year. This is why I'm a bigger fan of just looking at how teams win games and not penalizing teams for not playing in conference x.

Like, I will fully concede that the MVFC and Big Sky are ahead of everyone else, I just don't think the gap is as big as some people would think (outside of the top). And I'm not saying that derail us into an argument about how much better those conferences are, but to just point out how uncertain and flawed the tools we use at assessing them, and I think for the spirit of the game, it would be more fun to embrace more uncertainty.
I'll respect your wish to not derail this thread. But I will say, I think the gaps are larger many years, not all ... but therein lies the debate. But IMO it isn't that hard to come up with something that would be viewed as reasonably objective on SOS that could be statisically supported in terms of identifying the systems that fall well outside the range consistently ... week over week and year over year .. and drop the systems which are consistently outside the range by X. Then form the new/improved Composite to establish an SOS for all of FCS. I realize this is far fetched, but it would sure help.

[caribbeanhen]

Yeah…0-0 @ half … but fumbled punt deep, quick Pack TD, fumbled ensuing kickoff, quick Pack TD will turn a 0-0 game into a 26-0 game pretty dang quickly.

Didn’t matter really, unless we coulda scored on Defense. That Monte Kiffin / Pete Carroll-Coached & Vaughan Johnson-led Wolfpack Defense had the Paladin O completely stymied all night.

Sounds like that may have been FUBeAR’s Grandmother you were sitting beside - the ink gave it away, but she musta been drunk cuz she wasn’t a Wolfpack fan. Cedartown, GA native loved her Yellow Jackets and Coach Pepper Rogers. She was VERY upset when FUBeAR decided he didn’t want to be an Engineer and Coach Pepper stopped calling her once a week. Hmmm…maybe she WAS cheering for the Pack cuz she was still mad at FUBeAR.

Y’know…this dang thread may send FUBeAR to counseling.

that name Pepper Rogers is a name I definitely remember from my grandmother repeating from her Georgia Tech days and I’ll tell a little story in a minute, but the real moral of the story is a message to all you younger folks out there that still have your grandparents and when they’re talking up about things that you don’t really understand or care about at the present time one day you will definitely care and they will no longer be around, so ask them what is it your talking about and tell me more

[Reign of Terrier]

But IMO it isn't that hard to come up with something that would be viewed as reasonably objective on SOS that could be statisically supported in terms of identifying the systems that fall well outside the range consistently ... week over week and year over year .. and drop the systems which are consistently outside the range by X. Then form the new/improved Composite to establish an SOS for all of FCS. I realize this is far fetched, but it would sure help.

Again, I don't think this is true at all. The best sports to have this sort of statistical analysis are college basketball and baseball because of the volume of OOC games and data points (and even those models aren't super reliable). What's more, at the end of the day, models are probabilistic, and for most reasonable people a 60% accurate model isn't much better than a 55% when it comes to people's intuitions. And let's be real - that certainty range would be the best you could ask for at this level, given the limitations.

You just can't make strong inferences from computer models when comparing teams when the sample of games for most conferences are 1 FBS money game that tells us nothing, a local game (whether it be sub-FCS or teams with less resources like pioneer, patriot, NEC, etc), and with most programs actually opting for 2 local games or 2 FBS. Our best sample (the playoffs) only tell us how the best play the best in one-off circumstances, and even then there's lots of examples of teams rematching and having more, let's say "avalanched" circumstances where the outcome is the opposite of the regular season or not as close.

Players play football, not computers.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Players play football, not computers.

True, except usually-biased humans rank these teams with far too little info ... much less accountability. And this impacts playoff at large selections. That's all I am getting at. Besides, this stuff is already being done today ... so why not try to do it better. I know some feel like nothing matters outside the top 8 seeds, but I disagree completely. The schools, coaches, players, fans, and donors all care about making playoffs and getting a fair shake. So we should try to do this better ... and not rely on a few regionally biased men to go behind closed doors to make decisions they aren't ever really held accountable for.

Just 24 of 125 FCS teams make the playoffs .. far less % than most levels of competitive sports. 10 or 11 are autobids. Many years, 2 to 4 of the autobids aren't deserving of a playoff spot. So this leaves 12-14 spots for at large bids. Again, I realize this is farfetched .. but I do think it needs to be done better than it is today.

Anyway ... fair debate, but I think it needs to improve come playoff selection time.

[Reign of Terrier]

True, except usually-biased humans rank these teams with far too little info ... much less accountability. And this impacts playoff at large selections. That's all I am getting at. This stuff is already being done ... so why not try to do it better.

How are computers accountable? What evidence do we have that these sites like Massey, using a proprietary model, are actually updating these models or accounting for the specific circumstances of FCS?

You're not going to solve these problems with better computers, but better structure, and that will only come for playoff structure because of money and coordination problems.

[Redbird 4th & short]

How are computers accountable? What evidence do we have that these sites like Massey, using a proprietary model, are actually updating these models or accounting for the specific circumstances of FCS?

You're not going to solve these problems with better computers, but better structure, and that will only come for playoff structure because of money and coordination problems.

Partly agree which is why I would like to see a Composite Model approach .. that ism an average across many models and polls, though just the ones that fall within a certain variance of the rest. Meaning, kick out the models or polls that consistently yield results way outside the averages.

[Reign of Terrier]

Partly agree which is why I would like to see a Composite Model approach .. that ism an average across many models and polls, though just the ones that fall within a certain variance of the rest. Meaning, kick out the models or polls that consistently yield results way outside the averages.

The problem here is that football is a game where one play can mean the difference between winning and losing. If you predict team A will make the semifinals because you predict they'll win their first game by 2 and blow out forecasted opponents, and they lose the first game by 1 on a last second, record-breaking field goal, and the opponent does the same thing, that model would come off as radically wrong, when it was only slightly wrong.

[caribbeanhen]

How are computers accountable? What evidence do we have that these sites like Massey, using a proprietary model, are actually updating these models or accounting for the specific circumstances of FCS?

You're not going to solve these problems with better computers, but better structure, and that will only come for playoff structure because of money and coordination problems.

Check out how Massey does when matched up against humans on the AGS pick em games

always near the top

[Redbird 4th & short]

The problem here is that football is a game where one play can mean the difference between winning and losing. If you predict team A will make the semifinals because you predict they'll win their first game by 2 and blow out forecasted opponents, and they lose the first game by 1 on a last second, record-breaking field goal, and the opponent does the same thing, that model would come off as radically wrong, when it was only slightly wrong.
Your drilling down on 1 hypothetical game you just made up, as if that disqualifies computers entirely. I'm talking about computers doing this for all 125 FCS teams and everyone one fo their 11 or 12 games, year after year after year. And that it is far more objective and accurate than any group of humans deciding these things with their conference and regional biases. And furthermore, who can't possibly be proficient at ranking teams while they do their full time day jobs. But even further to the point I'm trying to make, I would like a Composite of polls and computer ranking systems to provide a more credible/objective SOS system to assist the polls and FCS selection committee and better inform their decisions. It is rather easy to identify the statistical outliers and come up with a Composite ... literally, program it and monitor it for determing outliers to remove from Composite ... not that hard at all, but transparancy is key. Then just allow this to be THE standard for SOS. As it stands, Massey, Sagarin, etc all rely on their own algorithms to determine ranking and SOS. We need an independent SOS system .. not just for FCS by the way. This alone would improve the subjective pollsters decisions over time. Publish the rankings for STATS, COaches, API, RPI, Massey, Sagarin etc same as before. But also publics or put the Composite SOS right next to their ranking. So when we see a 9-2 team ranked 5th in FCS and getting a top 8 seed in playoffs, with an 80th ranked SOS and zero quality wins ... it will look bad and be publicly called into question and ridiculed . Then watch those future decisions get better .. noone wants to look stupid and like a homer, if htey know htey will get caught.

Again, I realize this is all very far fetched. But we need a better SOS system, and it could be used at many levels .. certainly FBS as well. Just need a credible Composite to keep it objective.

https://i.gifer.com/93wP.gif

[Reign of Terrier]

Check out how Massey does when matched up against humans on the AGS pick em games

always near the top

Near the top is not the same as "better than a human picker" FWIW

[Reign of Terrier]

Your drilling down on 1 hypothetical game you just made up, as if that disqualifies computers entirely. I'm talking about computers doing this for all 125 FCS teams and everyone one fo their 11 or 12 games, year after year after year. And that it is far more objective and accurate than any group of humans deciding these things with their conference and regional biases. And furthermore, who can't possibly be proficient at ranking teams while they do their full time day jobs. But even further to the point I'm trying to make, I would like a Composite of polls and computer ranking systems to provide a more credible/objective SOS system to assist the polls and FCS selection committee and better inform their decisions. It is rather easy to identify the statistical outliers and come up with a Composite ... literally, program it and monitor it for determing outliers to remove from Composite ... not that hard at all, but transparancy is key. Then just allow this to be THE standard for SOS. As it stands, Massey, Sagarin, etc all rely on their own algorithms to determine ranking and SOS. We need an independent SOS system .. not just for FCS by the way. This alone would improve the subjective pollsters decisions over time. Publish the rankings for STATS, COaches, API, RPI, Massey, Sagarin etc same as before. But also publics or put the Composite SOS right next to their ranking. So when we see a 9-2 team ranked 5th in FCS and getting a top 8 seed in playoffs, with an 80th ranked SOS and zero quality wins ... it will look bad and be publicly called into question and ridiculed . Then watch those future decisions get better .. noone wants to look stupid and like a homer, if htey know htey will get caught.

Again, I realize this is all very far fetched. But we need a better SOS system, and it could be used at many levels .. certainly FBS as well. Just need a credible Composite to keep it objective.

https://i.gifer.com/93wP.gif

I'm not inventing a hypothetical case, you could realistically look at how UIW did in the playoffs and how so many of their games were 1-2 plays from being different and how that would mess with a computer ranking like crazy. The rest of your post just doesn't deal with the reality of how probabilistic computer models work with college football, even the best ones. I don't think I've even talked about how there's a crowding effect with these models and how teams get rankings bumps just for being in the same conference.

At the end of the day, the only people who like computers are the folks who benefit from their flaws. I think if you're going to structure a system around computer, they have to have stronger certainty than the 60-70% (tops) that they offer.

[caribbeanhen]

Near the top is not the same as "better than a human picker" FWIW

depends what human your talking about

You want to take him on?

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm not inventing a hypothetical case, you could realistically look at how UIW did in the playoffs and how so many of their games were 1-2 plays from being different and how that would mess with a computer ranking like crazy. The rest of your post just doesn't deal with the reality of how probabilistic computer models work with college football, even the best ones. I don't think I've even talked about how there's a crowding effect with these models and how teams get rankings bumps just for being in the same conference.

At the end of the day, the only people who like computers are the folks who benefit from their flaws. I think if you're going to structure a system around computer, they have to have stronger certainty than the 60-70% (tops) that they offer.

So it was a real case of a single team in a couple games. But my point is same.

For many years, I have touted the AGS FCS POll as the best subjective poll out there. Much better than STATS or Coaches, and by week 6 or 7, they are the gold standard for subjective polls. The reason for this IMO, is all the transparancy and accountability this AGS site provides for the AGS poll. The other polls don't and can't do that .. zero transparency and accountability. But even AGS is oly as good as each person's limited brain capacity to contemplate 125 treams, 11-12 games, year after year. A computer can do that with near zero effort. I advocate for bringing together the best of both worlds with a Composite, mainly to assess SOS rankings/scores .. not the actual ranking, though I would also want to see that.

But just to be clear, I don't want a computer picking playoff teams. I just want an objectively credible SOS system, so the humans can do their jobs more credibly. If I were on the FCS selection committee, I would welcome something credible with open arms. I want to know if the 9-2 team with a bottom 20 SOS, and is gettin an at large bid over a 7-4 team who has a top 10 SOS. You can literally line up their schedules and scores (margins, home/away, SOS score) and assess who had better quality wins or losses. Goal of playoffs is to get the top 24 teams. It's already tainted by weak autobids. So I think we/they need to do better with the rest of the at large bids.