FCS Strength of Schedule

[The Cats]

https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/team-by-team-strength-of-schedule-heading-into-the-2023-fcs-season/
(https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/team-by-team-strength-of-schedule-heading-into-the-2023-fcs-season/)
The list shows the combined winning % of each teams Div. I opponents in 2022 to determine their strength. Here the top 25....

1. Harvard (Ivy) – .648 (68-37), 10 of 10 opponents were Division I members in 2022
2. Nicholls (Southland) – .610 (83-53), 11 of 113. Elon (CAA) – .606 (80-52), 11 of 11
4. Cal Poly (Big Sky) – .585 (69-49), 10 of 11
5. Campbell (CAA) – .583 (77-55), 11 of 11
6. North Alabama (UAC) – .573 (71-53), 11 of 11
7. Yale (Ivy) – .571 (60-45), 10 of 10
8. ETSU (SoCon) – .570 (65-49), 10 of 11
9. Central Arkansas (UAC) – .568 (67-51), 10 of 11
10. Northern Arizona (Big Sky) – .561 (74-58), 11 of 11
11. South Dakota State (MVFC) – .559 (66-52), 10 of 11
12. Delaware (CAA) – .559 (71-56), 11 of 11
T13. Eastern Washington (Big Sky) – .559 (76-60), 11 of 11
T13. Mississippi Valley State (SWAC) – .559 (57-45), 9 of 11
15. North Carolina A&T (CAA) – .558 (72-57), 11 of 11
16. Brown (Ivy) – .553 (57-46), 10 of 10
17. Dartmouth (Ivy) – .552 (58-47), 10 of 10
18. Northern Colorado (Big Sky) – .549 (73-60), 11 of 11
19. VMI (SoCon) – .547 (70-58), 11 of 11
20. Idaho State (Big Sky) – .545 (72-60), 11 of 11
T21. Towson (CAA) – .543 (70-59), 11 of 11
T21. Wofford (SoCon) – .543 (70-59), 11 of 11
23. Montana State (Big Sky) – .542 (71-60), 11 of 11
24. Morehead State (Pioneer) – .541 (60-51), 10 of 11
25. Stephen F. Austin (UAC) – .536 (67-58), 11 of 11

[UNHWildcat18]

I think that list is a bunch of crap..

[ElCid]

Just using W/L of opponents and is not a great indicator. And just looking at Div I opponents is ok, but how many of those Div I teams played lower or upper classifications. Probably be more accurate if just FCS games of opponents were included, but still flawed.

[OhioHen]

Biggest flaw in the methodology is proven by the inclusion of only one MVFC team in the top 25. A 5-6 MVFC team is stronger than most 8-3 teams anywhere else.

[FUBeAR]

Biggest flaw in the methodology is proven by the inclusion of only one MVFC team in the top 25. A 5-6 MVFC team is stronger than most 8-3 teams anywhere else.
https://media.tenor.com/3EF5MYpRpyoAAAAC/here-we-go-joker.gif

[Redbird 4th & short]

How anyone could survive this schedule, much less even finish the season, is just mind boggling .. like the Big Sky, the MVFC teams are just so lucky not to have to face this gauntlet !!

Not to mention, there are clearly 23 other Top 25 FCS teams who would all finish 3rd or better in the MVFC if only they had the chance to play in the MVFC.



Date


Opponent
Massey Rank
Win Prob.
PF
PA




Sat 09-30
at
Holy Cross (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/3304)
26(0-0)
33 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287752)
21
28




Sat 10-21
at
Princeton (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6339)
31(0-0)
35 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288087)
21
27




Sat 11-18
at
Yale (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/9177)
35(0-0)
39 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288588)
24
28




Sat 10-28


Dartmouth (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2052)
44(0-0)
63 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288238)
24
20




Sat 11-11


Penn (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6103)
59(0-0)
74 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288462)
28
20




Sat 11-04
at
Columbia (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1766)
69(0-0)
68 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288313)
28
21




Sat 10-07


Cornell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1910)
87(0-0)
86 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287879)
31
14




Fri 09-22


Brown (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/933)
96(0-0)
86 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287636)
36
17




Sat 10-14


Howard (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/3359)
98(0-0)
90 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287984)
35
14




Sat 09-16


St Thomas MN (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6926)
103(0-0)
94 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287534)
38
14

[DFW HOYA]

Massey ratings are simply mathematical formulas. Still, the last eight games of the Georgetown schedule are not selling any tickets:

Columbia: 14% chance to win
Fordham: 21%
Penn: 10%
Lehigh: 31%
Colgate: 33%
Lafayette: 35%
Bucknell: 48%
Holy Cross: 3%

[caribbeanhen]

Biggest flaw in the methodology is proven by the inclusion of only one MVFC team in the top 25. A 5-6 MVFC team is stronger than most 8-3 teams anywhere else.

can you provide some modern examples?

[OhioHen]

can you provide some modern examples?
I would have had Missouri State over Delaware just last year.

[Catbooster]

How anyone could survive this schedule, much less even finish the season, is just mind boggling .. like the Big Sky, the MVFC teams are just so lucky not to have to face this gauntlet !!

Not to mention, there are clearly 23 other Top 25 FCS teams who would all finish 3rd or better in the MVFC if only they had the chance to play in the MVFC.



Date


Opponent
Massey Rank
Win Prob.
PF
PA




Sat 09-30
at
Holy Cross (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/3304)
26(0-0)
33 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287752)
21
28




Sat 10-21
at
Princeton (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6339)
31(0-0)
35 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288087)
21
27




Sat 11-18
at
Yale (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/9177)
35(0-0)
39 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288588)
24
28




Sat 10-28


Dartmouth (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2052)
44(0-0)
63 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288238)
24
20




Sat 11-11


Penn (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6103)
59(0-0)
74 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288462)
28
20




Sat 11-04
at
Columbia (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1766)
69(0-0)
68 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288313)
28
21




Sat 10-07


Cornell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1910)
87(0-0)
86 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287879)
31
14




Fri 09-22


Brown (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/933)
96(0-0)
86 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287636)
36
17




Sat 10-14


Howard (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/3359)
98(0-0)
90 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287984)
35
14




Sat 09-16


St Thomas MN (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6926)
103(0-0)
94 % (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287534)
38
14





Glad my school gets to play SDSU, Weber, Sac State, Idaho and Montana (all away games) rather than have to run that gauntlet.

[NY Crusader 2010]

I think that list is a bunch of crap..

It's a statistically derived list. It ranks SOS by calculating total winning % last year of 2023 opponents. It's just a bunch of numbers that don't really mean anything. Harvard is "#1" in SOS according to this because 2 of their 3 non-conference opponents went a combined 22-2 last year. One is Holy Cross (Patriot League -- ok maybe we're legit), the other is St. Thomas (Pioneer).

[Redbird 4th & short]

can you provide some modern examples?
warning .. tired of working, and most of my office slacks on friday aftrnoons anyway .. , so I did a "little" digging. Thanks to Massey site for making this possible and far easier than I expected.

Not sure what you consider modern, but since the point of the OP was the MVFC strength, I'll pick examples since 2010. So obviously not all will be 5-6 vs 8-3, but the point being made is relative SOS by conference each year and in recent history when MVFC became the dominant conference.

So here are some more than comparable examples, most being wins with big disparity on overall and conference records, some being very close losses with .. which speaks to the OP's point. Though I don't think I would have said "most" 5-6 MVFC teams would beat "most" 8-3 teams. But I would say these types of wins happen a lot more in MVFC's favor than any other conference by far .. though I will readily admit Big Sky has closed the gap with the rest of the MVFC (not named NDSU) the last 4 or 5 years.

Here are 13 examples, 8 are wins, and 5 are very competive losses with very disparate records.

The 8 wins .. noting margins of 14, 10, 35, 7, 21, 12, 3, 2

- 2011 WIU (2-9, 1-7) beat Jacksonville (7-4, 6-2) by 14. Sure it was Pioneer, but a last place 1-7 MVFC team handled a 2nd place 6-2 Pioneer team.

- 2012 USD (1-10, 0-8) beat Colgate (8-3, 6-0) by 10 .. noting it was USDs only win this year, but 0-8 beat 6-0.

- 2013 UNI (7-5, 3-5) destoyed McNeese St (10-2, 6-1) by score of 41-6. After UNI went 4-0 in nonconf, they started conf play and went 0-5 to start, losing by avg of 5 pts per game incl 1 pt loss on road to arguably the best Bison team ever. They were probably a top 15 team that year, but no playoffs at 7-5. And MVFC only got 2 total bids this year.

- 2014 USD (1-10, 0-8) beat NAU (7-5, 5-3) .. again noting it was USDs only win that year. 0-8 MVFC team beat a 5-3 Big Sky team

- 2015 SIU (3-8, 2-6) beat Liberty (6-5, 3-3) .. rolled them 34-13 - not a great example.

- 2019 ISUb (5-7, 3-5) beat EKU (7-5, 5-3) .. So a 3-5 MVFC team beat a 5-3 OVC team by 12.

- 2021 UNI (3-7, 2-6) beat IW (10-3) 44-41.

- 2021 ISUb (5-6, 3-5) beat EKU (7-4, 6-2) .. not an 8-3 team, but a 3-5 MVFC team beat a 6-2 (new Southland/OVC league) team by 2 on their field.

The 4 competitive losses with margins of 3, 6, 8, 4, 7 .. and the # wins' margins ranged from 3 to 7, with just 2 of the 5 being the 3 win margin in records.

- 2010 SIU (5-6, 4-4) nearly beat SEMO (8-3, 7-1) .. lost by 3. Yes, they lost .. but a 4-4 MVFC team nearly beat a 7-1 OVC team. OVC was stronger at this point in time.

- 2013 USD (4-8, 3-5) nearly beat NAU (9-2, 8-1), losing 22-16 at NAU. I know they lost, but still .. a 3-5 MVFC team nearly beat an 8-1 Big Sky team

- 2014 USD (1-10, 0-8) lost on road to Mont St (7-4, 6-2) by just 8 pts .. 0-8 MVFC competed on road with a 6-2 Big Sky team

- 2016 UNI (5-6, 4-4) nearly beat EWU (12-2) .. lost by 4 at EWU. EWU made it to semi's, losing to YSU. EWU also beat 8-4 Wash St that

- 2016 ISUr (6-5, 4-4) nearly beat UCA (9-2) on the road in playoffs .. we dominated them for 3 qtrs. Then 2 fluke special teams gaffes gave them 10 pts in the 4th qtr, momentum shifted and we lost by 7.

- 2018 SIU (2-9, 1-7) nearly beat SEMO (8-3, 6-2), losing 44-48. So our last place MVFC team nearly beat the 2nd place OVC team with an at large bid.