Hero Sports media darlings a blessing or curse ?

[caribbeanhen]

I like this article

it addresses preseason hype and this years little darlings are Furman and Idaho

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-preseason-hype-furman-idaho-bzbz/

[FUBeAR]

I like this article

it addresses preseason hype and this years little darlings are Furman and Idaho

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-preseason-hype-furman-idaho-bzbz/
It’s a silly article.

Because of the ‘triple-stacked-deck’ of the current Playoff selection, seeding, and bracketing process, a Team (almost) requires a high pre-season ranking in order to make a deep run in the Playoffs. So, no intelligent fan has any concerns about being ranked highly. FUBeAR won’t do it, but he would love for someone to research and publish some data since going to the current Playoff structure with pre-season rankings correlated to Playoff positioning and success.

Furman, last year, was a very brief, very light, completely unnecessary, and wholly inconsequential tug of a jersey away from defeating a UIW Team that let NDSU up off the canvas in the FargoDome. They did that with a QB who was brand new to the program in the Fall, not named the Starter until a week before the 1st game, AND with a new OC. Despite the high number of returning starters you see in Furman’s write-up’s, those numbers are actually UNDERstated because of injuries. The Paladins actually have 13 starters returning on Defense, for example. They lost 1 player to the portal - a back-up CB for Furman to an FBS school (on scholarship) and made just a few key pickups. Furman deserves to be ranked where they are - actually would be #4 in FUBeAR’s poll - and we’re unanimously very happy to be there.

Whether or not, the Paladins can perform up to expectations remains to be seen … on Any Given Saturday!

[clenz]

The basic gist of what he tried to say

"Media darlings" become media darlings in preseason polls because they did something completely unexpected and out of the norm for their program the year before. Everyone buys the hype and ignores all history and other signs that would indicate a one-off happening. The next season that team regresses to their mean and everyone seems perplexed as to what happened.

[nodak651]

The basic gist of what he tried to say

"Media darlings" become media darlings in preseason polls because they did something completely unexpected and out of the norm for their program the year before. Everyone buys the hype and ignores all history and other signs that would indicate a one-off happening. The next season that team regresses to their mean and everyone seems perplexed as to what happened.

Then he ranks Incarnate Word where he does.

[caribbeanhen]

It’s a silly article.

Whether or not, the Paladins can perform up to expectations remains to be seen … on Any Given Saturday!

it isn’t silly no it isn’t silly at all … SPM #1 1976

you spent all last year pumping Furman so you earned the lil darling moniker … wear it well

[katss07]

Then he ranks Incarnate Word where he does.
UIW’s run to the semifinals might’ve been “unexpected” to some but what they did to that point in the year wasn’t really out of the norm. They did the exact same thing the year before.

[caribbeanhen]

UIW’s run to the semifinals might’ve been “unexpected” to some but what they did to that point in the year wasn’t really out of the norm. They did the exact same thing the year before.

Yep, enjoyed watching them the past 2 years with 2 incredible QBs, I know they got a transfer QB from Texas Tech but don’t know anything about him.

I should also add that IW had mucho talent all over the field last year…. Makes coaches look good

[atthewbon]

It’s a silly article.

Because of the ‘triple-stacked-deck’ of the current Playoff selection, seeding, and bracketing process, a Team (almost) requires a high pre-season ranking in order to make a deep run in the Playoffs. So, no intelligent fan has any concerns about being ranked highly. FUBeAR won’t do it, but he would love for someone to research and publish some data since going to the current Playoff structure with pre-season rankings correlated to Playoff positioning and success.

Furman, last year, was a very brief, very light, completely unnecessary, and wholly inconsequential tug of a jersey away from defeating a UIW Team that let NDSU up off the canvas in the FargoDome. They did that with a QB who was brand new to the program in the Fall, not named the Starter until a week before the 1st game, AND with a new OC. Despite the high number of returning starters you see in Furman’s write-up’s, those numbers are actually UNDERstated because of injuries. The Paladins actually have 13 starters returning on Defense, for example. They lost 1 player to the portal - a back-up CB for Furman to an FBS school (on scholarship) and made just a few key pickups. Furman deserves to be ranked where they are - actually would be #4 in FUBeAR’s poll - and we’re unanimously very happy to be there.

Whether or not, the Paladins can perform up to expectations remains to be seen … on Any Given Saturday!

Here is some basic data from the last 5 fall seasons and the 2020 spring season.
32848
https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/13d83954-33f3-46e7-b305-e2a48097fd3f

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/bf9b118f-cdd3-4830-96fb-d25cb298b250

[atthewbon]

Here is some basic data from the last 5 fall seasons and the 2020 spring season.
32848
https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/13d83954-33f3-46e7-b305-e2a48097fd3f

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/bf9b118f-cdd3-4830-96fb-d25cb298b250

Every year after 2017 at least one team from outside the preseason top 11 has made the semifinals, which I think qualifies as a deep run. Each time that team received a top 8 seed excluding the 2020 season which only seeded 4 teams. I think this shows teams who don't receive preseason hype can still get a seed and go on a run in the playoffs.

Some other quick interesting data points...
The preseason rank of national title since 2017: 2, 4, 22*, 1, 1, 2 ( I put an * next to the 22 because those preseason ranks are from august for the spring season)
The preseason ran of every runner-up since 2017: 1, 12, 5*, 2, 9, 1
The Mean preseason rank of every semifinalist during this span (counting NR as 26) is 7.125
The Median preseason rank of every semifinalist during this span (counting NR as 26) is 3.5

[caribbeanhen]

Every year after 2017 at least one team from outside the preseason top 11 has made the semifinals, which I think qualifies as a deep run. Each time that team received a top 8 seed excluding the 2020 season which only seeded 4 teams. I think this shows teams who don't receive preseason hype can still get a seed and go on a run in the playoffs.

Some other quick interesting data points...
The preseason rank of national title since 2017: 2, 4, 22*, 1, 1, 2 ( I put an * next to the 22 because those preseason ranks are from august for the spring season)
The preseason ran of every runner-up since 2017: 1, 12, 5*, 2, 9, 1
The Mean preseason rank of every semifinalist during this span (counting NR as 26) is 7.125
The Median preseason rank of every semifinalist during this span (counting NR as 26) is 3.5

So who will it be this year?

[VandalBasher]

Too much, too soon. Let the Vandals win a few games first.

[caribbeanhen]

It’s a silly article.

Because of the ‘triple-stacked-deck’ of the current Playoff selection, seeding, and bracketing process, a Team (almost) requires a high pre-season ranking in order to make a deep run in the Playoffs. So, no intelligent fan has any concerns about being ranked highly. FUBeAR won’t do it, but he would love for someone to research and publish some data since going to the current Playoff structure with pre-season rankings correlated to Playoff positioning and success.

Furman, last year, was a very brief, very light, completely unnecessary, and wholly inconsequential tug of a jersey away from defeating a UIW Team that let NDSU up off the canvas in the FargoDome. They did that with a QB who was brand new to the program in the Fall, not named the Starter until a week before the 1st game, AND with a new OC. Despite the high number of returning starters you see in Furman’s write-up’s, those numbers are actually UNDERstated because of injuries. The Paladins actually have 13 starters returning on Defense, for example. They lost 1 player to the portal - a back-up CB for Furman to an FBS school (on scholarship) and made just a few key pickups. Furman deserves to be ranked where they are - actually would be #4 in FUBeAR’s poll - and we’re unanimously very happy to be there.

Whether or not, the Paladins can perform up to expectations remains to be seen … on Any Given Saturday!

it isn’t silly no it isn’t silly at all … SPM #1 1976

[Reign of Terrier]

So, I was going to say something about conference affiliation and perception and stuff like that, in line with what FUBear said, as well as some stuff about regression (like what Clenz said) and how these forces come together, but at the end of the day it's pretty simply why these "media darlings" failed. The difference between a 6-5 team and an 8-3 team is pretty thin! The FCS is not like FBS where the top 16 or so teams can be expected to have 9 wins +. The margin of error is so razor thin here.

As I've said many times before, FCS is a subdivision of programs, not teams. For some reason, some programs when they are hot are predictably at a certain temperature (no hotter or cooler). Don't expect teams to improve linearly just because of who they were last year. Look more at where they live historically.

And in that regard, I would feel comfortable in Furman not missing the playoffs or totally eating it, just because of who they are relative to those other teams. And keep in mind, I hate Furman!

[ElCid]

Furman sucks.

[Redbird 4th & short]

it isn’t silly no it isn’t silly at all … SPM #1 1976

I see what you did there ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVMA-Zot9y0

[caribbeanhen]

I see what you did there ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVMA-Zot9y0

You got me, Maybe I’ll drop some lyrics into every post as a challenge

[KPSUL]

[QUOTE=caribbeanhen;3132389]You got me, Maybe I’ll drop some lyrics into every post as a challenge!

No, No, No, No we don't want it no more !

[caribbeanhen]

[QUOTE=caribbeanhen;3132389]You got me, Maybe I’ll drop some lyrics into every post as a challenge!

No, No, No, No we don't want it no more !

actually that was Ringo, not the legend

no, no no no I don’t smoke it no more
I’m tired of waking up on the floor