Can #16 Delaware upset #2 Delaware State

[JohnStOnge]

Ok Boogs bashers, today's game is kind of a test of whether or not Boogs's rating system has unrecognized merit. His final regular season ratings have Delaware State at #2 and Delaware at #16. Otherwise, just in terms of who the favorite is, his ratings aren't dramatically different than most others are. He does have JMU rated slightly higher than Appalachian State (10 vs. 13), but the "average" of rankings at http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm (App 7, JMU 8) and the GPI (App 6, JMU 9) have them rated close too. So App winning wouldn't be a big "upset" by Boogs' ratings and JMU winning wouldn't be a big "upset" by most of the other systems.

However, by the "average ratings," Delaware is rated 10th as compared to Delaware State's 27th. By the GPI, it's Delaware 10th and Delaware State 22nd.

One game will not allow a real definitive indication either way but if most people on this board and most power rating systems are close to right there shouldn't be too much of a chance that the Hornets will win. And if Boogs' system is right there shouldn't be too much of a chance that Delaware will win.

[RadMann]

This game is somewhat out of the ordinary due to all of the hype the media has placed on the game with their unsubstantiated rumor mongering. This rumor mongering that has painted UD as the evil racist institution will serve to motivate the DSU team a lot I think. Based on that, this game is unpredictable in my estimation.

[Tribe4SF]

This game is somewhat out of the ordinary due to all of the hype the media has placed on the game with their unsubstantiated rumor mongering. This rumor mongering that has painted UD as the evil racist institution will serve to motivate the DSU team a lot I think. Based on that, this game is unpredictable in my estimation.

Sounds like Alibi Ike to me.xeyebrowx

[RadMann]

Tribe, I think UD has the stronger team but the intangibles in this game are not things we generally see. To be honest, these things are stuff we never see. That is the reason I brought it up.

[JohnStOnge]

Just to kill time until the game starts:

I can't really directly estimate the probability of a Delaware "upset" according to Boogs' system but in my experience the error associated with most power ratings systems is similar from system to system so, just to get a rough idea, I looked at the 2nd and 16th rated FCS teams in Sagarin's system. What I came up with is that, based on the point spread involved (13.47 with home field considered), teams that are underdogs by that much by the Sagarin system should win about 20 percent of the time.

On the other hand, Sagarin's system has Delaware rated 8th and Delaware State 32nd. Delaware is a 15.53 point favorite. I estimate the underdog by that much by that system should win about 17 percent of the time...which I'd probably just round off to 20 so as not to try to get too precise.

So, either way, it'd be about a 1 chance in 5 proposition...not a "it'll never happen" type of thing. Still interesting though.

[JohnStOnge]

I guess the answer is "yes."

[igo4uni]

I guess the answer is "yes."

With an exclamation point.

[Tribe4SF]

Boog's system goes down for the third time!:D

[Pards Rule]

Sagarin rules!

[BlueHen86]

Ok Boogs bashers, today's game is kind of a test of whether or not Boogs's rating system has unrecognized merit. His final regular season ratings have Delaware State at #2 and Delaware at #16. Otherwise, just in terms of who the favorite is, his ratings aren't dramatically different than most others are. He does have JMU rated slightly higher than Appalachian State (10 vs. 13), but the "average" of rankings at http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm (App 7, JMU 8) and the GPI (App 6, JMU 9) have them rated close too. So App winning wouldn't be a big "upset" by Boogs' ratings and JMU winning wouldn't be a big "upset" by most of the other systems.

However, by the "average ratings," Delaware is rated 10th as compared to Delaware State's 27th. By the GPI, it's Delaware 10th and Delaware State 22nd.

One game will not allow a real definitive indication either way but if most people on this board and most power rating systems are close to right there shouldn't be too much of a chance that the Hornets will win. And if Boogs' system is right there shouldn't be too much of a chance that Delaware will win.
His "system" sucks. You have already put more time into it than he has.

[RadMann]

I told him a while back that his system does not meet the common sense test and he did not seem to like my comment. I give him credit for doing it in the first place though (more than I have done), but some of his results just did not pass the basic once-over review.

[JohnStOnge]

His "system" sucks. You have already put more time into it than he has.

I doubt that.