BCS Championship Game Possibilities --- Can the Sun Devils Get There?

[AZGrizFan]

ASU currently sits 6th in the BCS standings. It all starts with ASU defeating USC tonight, then beating the Wildcats at Sun Devil Stadium in 10 days. xnodx xnodx xnodx

Let's assume Kansas loses to Missouri, then Missouri is beaten in the Big 12 title game (or vice versa would be fine as well) This gives Missouri 2 losses, but should drop Kansas below ASU in the BCS standings. LSU loses in the SEC title game (since I'm pretty sure they'll get by Arkansas this weekend), giving LSU 2 losses. OSU is done, and has no control over it's destiny at this point.If WVU loses to UConn, that gives the Mountaineers 2 losses.

So, if ASU wins out and a couple of these things come to pass, is ASU's SOS enough to vault them past 4 teams and into the BCS title game? Or are then destined for the Rose Bowl even if they win out?

xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[BlueHen86]

Under your scenario ASU is in (I think).
ASU might leapfrog OSU and WVU even if they win.

I looked at the BCS standings; ASU, OSU and WVU are dead even in the computer poll average. WVU and OSU have the edge (right now) based on human polls. ASU might get an edge in the computer polls if they can win their last two games. If the Big 12 schools knock each other off, the human poll numbers will tighten up between ASU, OSU and WVU, combine that with ASU possibly getting an adge in the computer polls and the race is close.

[AZGrizFan]

Under your scenario ASU is in (I think).
ASU might leapfrog OSU and WVU even if they win.

I looked at the BCS standings; ASU, OSU and WVU are dead even in the computer poll average. WVU and OSU have the edge (right now) based on human polls. ASU might get an edge in the computer polls if they can win their last two games. If the Big 12 schools knock each other off, the human poll numbers will tighten up between ASU, OSU and WVU, combine that with ASU possibly getting an adge in the computer polls and the race is close.


I guess what concerns me is ASU's BCS # is .801, while OSU (the #5 BCS team right now) has a .860. Even if ASU wins out, can they make up enough in the BCS # to vault 4 teams? I really think they need help at this point. Obviously the Big 12 will squander 2 of their three (OU is already gone) so that's ONE of the 4 necessary....

I've never been a fan of the SEC, but I'll be a BIG fan of whoever plays LSU in the title game! And a big fan of UConn! xnodx xnodx xnodx

[DuckDuckGriz]

To be honest AZ - I do not see ASU getting past USC. They are playing very well and are still very p!ssed off. ASU barely snuck by UCLA which is not easy to do but consider this: UCLA got blown out this year by teams like Notre Dame, Washington State, and Utah. ASU struggled against our defense and the USC defense is easily the best in the Pac 10.

If ASU pulls it off then call me a believer and they will be in the Rose Bowl.

[AZGrizFan]

To be honest AZ - I do not see ASU getting past USC. They are playing very well and are still very p!ssed off. ASU barely snuck by UCLA which is not easy to do but consider this: UCLA got blown out this year by teams like Notre Dame, Washington State, and Utah. ASU struggled against our defense and the USC defense is easily the best in the Pac 10.

If ASU pulls it off then call me a believer and they will be in the Rose Bowl.


Keep in mind, DD, that prior to this year, ASU hadn't won in the state of California in 11 years!!! It became an albatross that they couldn't shake! Hell, they lost to frickin' Standford!!! Getting by ANY team IN California is a big deal. This is NOT your father's USC team. Nor is it your father's ASU team. I say ASU by 10. Then, it's on to New Orleans!!!

xbowx xbowx xbowx

[dbackjon]

To be honest AZ - I do not see ASU getting past USC. They are playing very well and are still very p!ssed off. ASU barely snuck by UCLA which is not easy to do but consider this: UCLA got blown out this year by teams like Notre Dame, Washington State, and Utah. ASU struggled against our defense and the USC defense is easily the best in the Pac 10.

If ASU pulls it off then call me a believer and they will be in the Rose Bowl.


UCLA has been the ultimate Jeckell and Hyde team this year. They SHOULD be very good, and can be any given saturday. It is just the stink just as often...

If ASU wins out, they will jump OSU and WVU. Voters don't WANT OSU back in the title game.

[DuckDuckGriz]

Keep in mind, DD, that prior to this year, ASU hadn't won in the state of California in 11 years!!! It became an albatross that they couldn't shake! Hell, they lost to frickin' Standford!!! Getting by ANY team IN California is a big deal. This is NOT your father's USC team. Nor is it your father's ASU team. I say ASU by 10. Then, it's on to New Orleans!!!

xbowx xbowx xbowx

Ok I agree there - but all I'm saying is with the speed of USC's linebacking corps, Rudy Carpenter better not panic like he did against us. xpeacex

[AZBison]

ASU has not exactly been a strong road team this season. At home it's a different story and the game today (Happy thanksgiving) and the UofA game are at Sun Devil Stadium.

I'm predicting a win. In fact before the season even started I was predicting an upset today, although when ASU wins today it won't exactly be an upset.

[BlueHen86]

I guess what concerns me is ASU's BCS # is .801, while OSU (the #5 BCS team right now) has a .860. Even if ASU wins out, can they make up enough in the BCS # to vault 4 teams? I really think they need help at this point. Obviously the Big 12 will squander 2 of their three (OU is already gone) so that's ONE of the 4 necessary....

I've never been a fan of the SEC, but I'll be a BIG fan of whoever plays LSU in the title game! And a big fan of UConn! xnodx xnodx xnodx
ASU's only chance (as I see it) is to win out and hope the Big 12 schools knock each other off.

If that happens I expect ASU to move ahead of OSU and WVU in the computer polls. OSU has no games left, WVU has UConn. ASU will get a big boost if they can beat USC.

I also expect the human polls to tighten up. The gap between OSU and ASU will get smaller. The question is how much. Also, even though Georgia and Virginia Tech are behind ASU in the human polls, they are taking points away from ASU. It would help ASU if they lost their final games.

[AZGrizFan]

ASU's only chance (as I see it) is to win out and hope the Big 12 schools knock each other off.

If that happens I expect ASU to move ahead of OSU and WVU in the computer polls. OSU has no games left, WVU has UConn. ASU will get a big boost if they can beat USC.

I also expect the human polls to tighten up. The gap between OSU and ASU will get smaller. The question is how much. Also, even though Georgia and Virginia Tech are behind ASU in the human polls, they are taking points away from ASU. It would help ASU if they lost their final games.

What would REALLY help is if EVERY team ahead of ASU could lose a game. :D :D :D

[BlueHen86]

What would REALLY help is if EVERY team ahead of ASU could lose a game. :D :D :D
I hear you. I'm a UConn fan, but I don't see them beating WVU. Also Ohio St. has no games left.

Hopefully ASU wins in impresive fashion tonight and gets a boost in the polls.xthumbsupx

[blackfordpu]

A pretty competitive game at the half. USC 27 / ASU 17

Also, for ASU to get in they only need 2-5 to lose one more game, LSU can stay a one loss team. If whoever loses the Kansas/Mizzou game loses in the Big 12 game they are out. WVU loses to UConn, they are out.

If ASU wins out I believe they will leap frog OSU and could possibly get a birth in the BCS title game against LSU.

[UNHWildCats]

Trojans win. 44-24. IF Oregon loses Saturday which without Dixon isnt out of the question, USC is in the drivers seat for the Rose Bowl

[DuckDuckGriz]

Hate to say I told you so but ASU's offense is no match for the speed of the linebacking corps of USC. That game should not have even been that close because of the two big plays on special teams for ASU (kickoff return in the first half and blocked punt in the second half).

Rudy Carpenter is tough as nails though - one of my new favorite players in the Pac 10.

Now, for the next two days atleast - The Ducks control their own fate xprayx xprayx xprayx xhomerx

[AZGrizFan]

Hate to say I told you so but ASU's offense is no match for the speed of the linebacking corps of USC. That game should not have even been that close because of the two big plays on special teams for ASU (kickoff return in the first half and blocked punt in the second half).

Rudy Carpenter is tough as nails though - one of my new favorite players in the Pac 10.

Now, for the next two days atleast - The Ducks control their own fate xprayx xprayx xprayx xhomerx




Wow. That's all I can say. I have watched a LOT of football this year, and I have NEVER seen a defense hit that hard, that fast and that often. I thought they were literally going to tear Rudy's head off. I tell ya, if the Sun Devils O-Line could pass block, they'd be undefeated.

Hat's off to the Trojans and their defense. You were right on the money, DD. They are special.

Guess it's Holiday bowl time, unless the Bruins can somehow step up and beat the Trojans like they did last year. Oregon may control their own fate, but I highly doubt they'll win their last two without Dixon...

[DuckDuckGriz]

Wow. That's all I can say. I have watched a LOT of football this year, and I have NEVER seen a defense hit that hard, that fast and that often. I thought they were literally going to tear Rudy's head off. I tell ya, if the Sun Devils O-Line could pass block, they'd be undefeated.

Hat's off to the Trojans and their defense. You were right on the money, DD. They are special.

Guess it's Holiday bowl time, unless the Bruins can somehow step up and beat the Trojans like they did last year. Oregon may control their own fate, but I highly doubt they'll win their last two without Dixon...

That's why I said for the next two days. xlolx We'll find out alot on Saturday.

[Marcus Garvey]

Trojans win. 44-24. IF Oregon loses Saturday which without Dixon isnt out of the question, USC is in the drivers seat for the Rose Bowl

Ughhhh...
Can we please have a Pac-10 champoin NOT named Southern Cal?

[spelunker64]

Hate to say I told you so but ASU's offense is no match for the speed of the linebacking corps of USC. That game should not have even been that close because of the two big plays on special teams for ASU (kickoff return in the first half and blocked punt in the second half).

Rudy Carpenter is tough as nails though - one of my new favorite players in the Pac 10.

Now, for the next two days atleast - The Ducks control their own fate xprayx xprayx xprayx xhomerx

Good luck with Leaf...

[DuckDuckGriz]

Good luck with Leaf...

Leaf is the big question. He is also banged up along with half our starters on offense.

[NDSUFREAK]

ASU still has a great chance. Anything can happen in College Football...especially this season....

Rudy Carpenter is one tough QB...one of the toughest, if not the toughest, QBs I've every seen play. He was knocked around a lot last night.

[UNHWildCats]

ASU still has a great chance. Anything can happen in College Football...especially this season....

Rudy Carpenter is one tough QB...one of the toughest, if not the toughest, QBs I've every seen play. He was knocked around a lot last night.
theres no way Arizona State gets to the BCS title game now. NO CHANCE.

[DuckDuckGriz]

ASU still has a great chance. Anything can happen in College Football...especially this season....

Rudy Carpenter is one tough QB...one of the toughest, if not the toughest, QBs I've every seen play. He was knocked around a lot last night.

ASU barely has a chance to win the Pac 10 let alone get to the BCS. Carpenter is tough but is very bad at losing his composure both during and after the play.

[NDSUFREAK]

theres no way Arizona State gets to the BCS title game now. NO CHANCE.

Whats the name of this message board....xrolleyesx


edit: oopsss, sorry, i didn't read the title game first off. I was talking about the Rose Bowl. There is still a chance at that. ASU's title chances were done after Oregon

[Peems]

Just shows that if USC were healthy all year they can demolish anybody. Just begs for a playoff

[DuckDuckGriz]

Just shows that if USC were healthy all year they can demolish anybody. Just begs for a playoff

Same can be said for Oregon (the healthy factor).

[Peems]

Same can be said for Oregon (the healthy factor).

agreed. But I'd take a fully healthy USC over a fully healthy Oregon

[DuckDuckGriz]

agreed. But I'd take a fully healthy USC over a fully healthy Oregon

I don't know. The style of offense it would be close. The last time Oregon was fully healthy was when they blewout Michigan.

[UNHWildCats]

Man did Nebraska just free fall this season, there was actually hope early on.... lol

[DuckDuckGriz]

Man did Nebraska just free fall this season, there was actually hope early on.... lol

Safe to say Callahan will be getting the slip. The black skirt defense is back.

[UNHWildCats]

today was the final game, I dont see Callahan lasting past Monday.

[CollegeSportsInfo]

Back on topic, it's a 4 team race. No other teams have options left. if WVU, Kansas and Missouri all lose a game, it will be Ohio State as #1 vs. Kansas.

I touched on the topic yesterday with the basic scenarios (http://collegesportsinfo.com/blog/).

[blackfordpu]

Back on topic, it's a 4 team race. No other teams have options left. if WVU, Kansas and Missouri all lose a game, it will be Ohio State as #1 vs. Kansas.

I touched on the topic yesterday with the basic scenarios (http://collegesportsinfo.com/blog/).

You think that if Kansas loses to Mizzou they will still be in the NC game?

[NDSUFREAK]

oregon is losing....

[DuckDuckGriz]

oregon is losing....

Only by 6-0. And they are down to their 5th and last QB. :(

[blackfordpu]

Only by 6-0. And they are down to their 5th and last QB. :(

5th QB? What happened to strings 2-4?

[DuckDuckGriz]

5th QB? What happened to strings 2-4?

The 3rd string tore is ACLA and MCL earlier this year.
Leaf (the 2nd string) just went down with a busted foot
Kempt (the 4th string) busted his ribs

[blackfordpu]

The 3rd string tore is ACLA and MCL earlier this year.
Leaf (the 2nd string) just went down with a busted foot
Kempt (the 4th string) busted his ribs

Talk about a good run of bad luck.

[DuckDuckGriz]

Talk about a good run of bad luck.
Not to mention 4 of the starting WRs out xbawlingx

[spelunker64]

Not to mention 4 of the starting WRs out xbawlingx

Tough day DDG, now go do a Regression Analysis on today's events...

[AZGrizFan]

That is too funny. If UCLA beats USC again this year, and ASU beats U of A again this year, ASU wins the conference!!! xlolx xlolx

[CopperCat]

Back on topic, it's a 4 team race. No other teams have options left. if WVU, Kansas and Missouri all lose a game, it will be Ohio State as #1 vs. Kansas.

I touched on the topic yesterday with the basic scenarios (http://collegesportsinfo.com/blog/).

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Kirk Herbstreit? Is that you?
xanim_chaix

[CollegeSportsInfo]

You think that if Kansas loses to Mizzou they will still be in the NC game?

I highly doubt that in addition to the Kansas loss yesterday, that BOTH Missouri and WVU will lose their final games.

but it will be interesting to see who gets the #2 spot if there are (2) 1-loss teams in Ohio St. and Kansas, with 2 loss teams like Missouri, WVU, Oklahoma, LSU, etc.

Somebody has to be #2 in that scenario, so who does everyone think that would be IF Missouri and WVU both were to lose?

[CopperCat]

I highly doubt that in addition to the Kansas loss yesterday, that BOTH Missouri and WVU will lose their final games.

but it will be interesting to see who gets the #2 spot if there are (2) 1-loss teams in Ohio St. and Kansas, with 2 loss teams like Missouri, WVU, Oklahoma, LSU, etc.

Somebody has to be #2 in that scenario, so who does everyone think that would be IF Missouri and WVU both were to lose?


NOT Ohio State, that's for sure.

[NDSUFREAK]

That is too funny. If UCLA beats USC again this year, and ASU beats U of A again this year, ASU wins the conference!!! xlolx xlolx

I KNOW!!! xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx xlolx xlolx

[CollegeSportsInfo]

NOT Ohio State, that's for sure.

Well, it is virtually a lock that if Missouri OR WVU lose their final game, Ohio St. WILL BE #2 and #1 if they both lose.

[Peems]

Just think about it for a minute....

West Virginia Vs Ohio St.

Doesn't that just generate excitementxrolleyesx

(in all fairness WVU is very exciting to watch, but this just begs for a playoff)

FBS IS A JOKE!!!!

[CollegeSportsInfo]

Just think about it for a minute....

West Virginia Vs Ohio St.

Doesn't that just generate excitementxrolleyesx

(in all fairness WVU is very exciting to watch, but this just begs for a playoff)

FBS IS A JOKE!!!!



Agreed about a playoff.

Some updates:
With Kansas getting a #7 rank in the AP Poll, it should take them out of the picture. Georgia sits at #4 and has no more games since the SEC Championship will be Tennessee vs #5 LSU. In theory, an LSU win with WVU and Missouri losses could be enough to push them over Georgia into the #2 spot. Strange. Quite odd that a 2 loss Georgia or LSU team will have a shot with only 1 week of games left to play...while 1-loss Kansas and potentially an undefeated Hawaii miss out.