Upsets

[stevdock]

Is there any game in the first round that is going to be a slam dunk for the higher seed? I don't see any at all. And being a newbie to FCS I don't know the answer to this, is this the deepest field that you guys remember? As you could easily make a case for any team to make a run deep in the playoffs

[Tim James]

Is there any game in the first round that is going to be a slam dunk for the higher seed? I don't see any at all.


UMass-Fordham and Montana-Wofford. Tom Luginbill on ESPNU said Montana will win the whole thing. An undefeated Montana team playing at home against a 8-3 team that has to travel across the country is pretty much a slam dunk to me.

[Col Hogan]

I'd say there are no slam-dunks...this is the time of the year that if you're not reqady to smash yoour opponent...you need to just stay home...

UMass is not a slam-dunk on Fordham...we may be the favorite...but we can't take them lightly...

Montana is going to play a team that beat last years champs...they know what it takes to win...and the legend of Wa-Griz won't impact them...

[Tim James]

If Fordham were undefeated or 10-1 it wouldnt be a slam dunk but this Fordham team has 3 losses and has played in a lot of close games in a league that isnt too strong.

[Tod]

(1) NORTHERN IOWA
-------------------
(11-0) x
x---------------
New Hampshire x x
------------------- x
(7-4) x
x---------------
DELAWARE x x
------------------- x x
(8-3) x x x
11/23 x--------------- x
Delaware State x x
------------------- x
(10-1) x---------------
x x
(4) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS x x
------------------- x x
(10-1) x x x
x--------------- x x
Eastern Illinois x x x
------------------- x x x
(8-3) x x x
x--------------- x
MASSACHUSETTS x x
------------------- x x
(9-2) x x x
x--------------- x
Fordham x x
------------------- x
(8-3) x
CHATTANOOGA, TN x--------------
(2) MCNEESE STATE x
------------------- x
(11-0) x x
x--------------- x
Eastern Washingtonx x x
------------------- x x
(8-3) x x
x--------------- x
APPALACHIAN STATE x x x
------------------- x x x
(9-2) x x x x
x--------------- x x
James Madison x x x
------------------- x x
(8-3) x---------------
x
(3) MONTANA x
------------------- x
(11-0) x x
x--------------- x
Wofford x x x
------------------- x x
(8-3) x x
x---------------
RICHMOND x
------------------- x
(9-2) x x
x---------------
Eastern Kentucky x
-------------------
(9-2)

The four most difficult first round games are in the bottom half of the bracket, period.

Boy, that copy/paste came out ugly. Sorry.

[R.A.]

Del State

[UMass922]

Is there any game in the first round that is going to be a slam dunk for the higher seed? I don't see any at all. And being a newbie to FCS I don't know the answer to this, is this the deepest field that you guys remember? As you could easily make a case for any team to make a run deep in the playoffs

I wouldn't say it's a deep field. Any playoff field that includes a 7-4 at-large team can't be considered a deep one, IMHO. There is a lot of parity at the top--there's no one team that's a clear favorite and probably any of eight or so teams could win the whole thing without it being a big shock.

But that said, no, I can't easily make a case for any team to make a deep run: Delaware State, Fordham, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Illinois, and New Hampshire would all be pretty big surprises if they got as far as the semis.

[tdoggs22]

wofford over montana is not a stretch, and is my pick for an upset. Wofford is battle-tested, and i dont think montana can say the same. They are undefeated, and respect is granted for that achievement, but ill take the 3-loss terriers in a tougher conference. Montana has played 1 playoff team (a deep seeded E. Wahington who they only beat by 1-point at home) and no FBS team. Wofford beat the defending National Champs.. convincingly at that while outgaining the Wolfpack of NC State. I am a homer, and i understand that, but i think everyone should open this book and read a few pages instead before they place judgement based on the cover. It should turn into a good story.

[bcrawf]

There is one slam dunk and that is SIU over EIU. That game will be ugly by halftime...

[BigApp]

There is one slam dunk and that is SIU over EIU. That game will be ugly by halftime...

your game too will be over before the half.

[catbob]

Montana, by any slim chance, might be able to upset Wofford at home.

[ASUG8]

UMass-Fordham and Montana-Wofford. Tom Luginbill on ESPNU said Montana will win the whole thing. An undefeated Montana team playing at home against a 8-3 team that has to travel across the country is pretty much a slam dunk to me.

Um, didn't UMass travel cross country last year and punch you guys in the mouth at home? It can happen.

[UNHWildCats]

your game too will be over before the half.
Nah, I dont think UNH will have that big a lead by halftime :p

Seriously though. UNI got screwed with this matchup in the first round. UNH has one of the top offenses of all the playoff teams and could easily come out with a win.

[ekufbfan]

I wouldn't say it's a deep field. Any playoff field that includes a 7-4 at-large team can't be considered a deep one, IMHO. There is a lot of parity at the top--there's no one team that's a clear favorite and probably any of eight or so teams could win the whole thing without it being a big shock.

But that said, no, I can't easily make a case for any team to make a deep run: Delaware State, Fordham, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Illinois, and New Hampshire would all be pretty big surprises if they got as far as the semis.

You may be right, but I hope like H*** any or all of the above proves you wrong, especially EKU. We-EKU- may lose right off the bat, we'll see, but I am sick of the the northeast arrogance. xpeacex !

[UMass922]

UNH has one of the top offenses of all the playoff teams and could easily come out with a win.

It's going to have to be a whole lot better than the UNH offense I saw in Amherst last weekend.

[UMass922]

You may be right, but I hope like H*** any or all of the above proves you wrong, especially EKU. We-EKU- may lose right off the bat, we'll see, but I am sick of the the northeast arrogance. xpeacex !

I'd like to see them prove me wrong, too. I always like seeing upsets and Cindarella stories. (I just hope no one does it against us.)

[newsbreaker]

Nah, I dont think UNH will have that big a lead by halftime :p

Seriously though. UNI got screwed with this matchup in the first round. UNH has one of the top offenses of all the playoff teams and could easily come out with a win.

I posted this on the UNI site. Take it for what it's worth.


UNI - UNH

Scoring (per game) 36.7 - 35.8
Points allowed (per) 13.2 - 28.5
Rushing (per) 229 - 113
Rushing Allowed 89.8 - 181.5
Passing 216 - 279
Passing Allowed 200 - 250
Total Offense 446 - 410
Total Offense Allow 290 - 431
Kick Return Avg 19.6 - 23.6
Kick Return Allow 20.6 - 20.6
Punt Return Avg 15.9 - 8.7
Punt Return Allow 7.8 - 8.7

Note - UNI average more points and yardage per game, and allows FAR less.

[Gil Dobie]

New Hampshire has the best chance for an upset. UNI has just played a couple teams with a combined 0-22 record.

[Gil Dobie]

I posted this on the UNI site. Take it for what it's worth.


UNI - UNH

Scoring (per game) 36.7 - 35.8
Points allowed (per) 13.2 - 28.5
Rushing (per) 229 - 113
Rushing Allowed 89.8 - 181.5
Passing 216 - 279
Passing Allowed 200 - 250
Total Offense 446 - 410
Total Offense Allow 290 - 431
Kick Return Avg 19.6 - 23.6
Kick Return Allow 20.6 - 20.6
Punt Return Avg 15.9 - 8.7
Punt Return Allow 7.8 - 8.7

Note - UNI average more points and yardage per game, and allows FAR less.

It would mean more if both teams had the same schedule. Saturday's game will be the measuring stick. xthumbsupx

[newsbreaker]

New Hampshire has the best chance for an upset. UNI has just played a couple teams with a combined 0-22 record.

They are also the only team with a win over a top-4 seed.

Gil, I know nothing about you, but based on another thread, your jealousy of UNI is incredible.

[UMass922]

New Hampshire has the best chance for an upset. UNI has just played a couple teams with a combined 0-22 record.

I would say Wofford over Montana is likelier.

[bcrawf]

New Hampshire has the best chance for an upset. UNI has just played a couple teams with a combined 0-22 record.

Yep and before that, let me see...

We won

@ Iowa State
@ South Dakota State (How'd that one go for ya Gil??)
vs SIU
vs YSU
@ WIU

Yeah you're right, we're screwed...xrolleyesx

[Gil Dobie]

They are also the only team with a win over a top-4 seed.

Gil, I know nothing about you, but based on another thread, your jealousy of UNI is incredible.

If I don't agree with some UNI fans, it's jealousy xeyebrowx

[GreatAppSt]

There is one slam dunk and that is SIU over EIU. That game will be ugly by halftime...

xbowx

[Gil Dobie]

I would say Wofford over Montana is likelier.

It's a good chance there too. Both Wofford and UNH are very good teams.

[mistersykes]

I think that Del State, EWU, Wofford, and EKU have are the best possibilities for pulling upsets. UNH has a chance, but their lack of a quality defense will make it harder on them.

My picks are for Del State and EWU to pull it off, or at the least make it very hard for UD and McNeese to win. We'll see!

[UMass922]

You may be right, but I hope like H*** any or all of the above proves you wrong, especially EKU. We-EKU- may lose right off the bat, we'll see, but I am sick of the the northeast arrogance. xpeacex !

And what's this about "northeast arrogance"? Two of the five teams I listed (Fordham and UNH) are from the northeast--three if you count Delaware State.

[newsbreaker]

If I don't agree with some UNI fans, it's jealousy xeyebrowx

No, you don't agree with UNI fans and it's jealousy. xthumbsupx

[Gil Dobie]

Yep and before that, let me see...

We won

@ Iowa State
@ South Dakota State (How'd that one go for ya Gil??)
vs SIU
vs YSU
@ WIU

Yeah you're right, we're screwed...xrolleyesx

Sorry my opinion doesn't coincide with yours. xsmhx

[Squealofthepig]

It's actually interesting that the only seed where most fans are NOT seeing a potential upset is the #4 SIU/EIU game (which I agree with).

UNH is dangerous, though I don't see them losing in the UNI-dome. Still, that's a much tougher first round matchup for the #1 seed than we've seen in the past.

EWU/McNeese - I think McNeese will send EWU packing, but again, not exactly a slamdunk.

Wofford will be an interesting matchup for Montana. Unlike most other teams, Wofford's fans haven't been actively piling on the arrests/SoS of Montana, so I know a lot less about this team than some other playoff teams. They're a tested team in a tough conference, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Terriers emerge from Wash-Griz victorious (though, of course, I hope they won't!)

SIU may as well put EIU on their friggin' schedule, as often as it's happened. I think the Salukis get a bit of a pass.

[UMass922]

It's a good chance there too. Both Wofford and UNH are very good teams.

I think UNH is being overrated based on their reputation. I'd love to see them pull off the upset, but I consider it a long-shot. Their defense isn't very good, they've struggled down the stretch, and Santos has been battling an injury. I just don't see them keeping up with UNI. I think it's possible that EWU over McNeese state would be as likely an upset as UNH over UNI.

[KiddBrewer]

none are slam dunks, but the title of the thread is Upsets, so heres how my bracket reads..upset wise

Wofford over Montana
EWU over McNeese
Deleware State over Deleware (maybe not, but maybe, i dont know im going back and forth)

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I think UNH is being overrated based on their reputation. I'd love to see them pull off the upset, but I consider it a long-shot. Their defense isn't very good, they've struggled down the stretch, and Santos has been battling an injury. I just don't see them keeping up with UNI. I think it's possible that EWU over McNeese state would be as likely an upset as UNH over UNI.

Wow, what a difference a couple of years makes.

[Gil Dobie]

No, you don't agree with UNI fans and it's jealousy. xthumbsupx

In your dreams xcoffeex

[UMass922]

Wow, what a difference a couple of years makes.

Yup. That's a testament to Ricky Santos and David Ball.

[Pantherpower]

Yup. That's a testament to Ricky Santos and David Ball.

But this year UNH has no Ball(s)xlolx Get it? Oh I kill me!!;)

[UNHWildCats]

UNI can put up 600 yards on UNH this weekend and that wont guarantee a victory. UNH knows this because in 2005 we out yardaged UNI 631-351 and lost 24-21.

Late next Saturday night theres a very good chance UNI fans could be pissed with anger at the NCAA for screwing them with such a potent team in the first round.

I wont go guaranteeing a win, but UNH has a shot, and this very well could be the best game of the first round. And it may come down to who has the ball last.

[bcrawf]

We are a completely different team than you saw in 2005...

We are a team that relies on a great defense and ton of defensive speed. This isn't the same blazing guns offense you saw then. Farley learned in playing Appy that defense, especially d-line, wins championships. Your offensive line is going to have a tough time with our defensive line that goes 8 deep.

I just don't think that points are going to be as easy to come by as you think they will...

[UMass922]

But this year UNH has no Ball(s)xlolx Get it? Oh I kill me!!;)

And it makes a big difference, too. The UNH offense is still very very good, but with Ball it had a whole other dimension to it. Without him, I think it's a lot easier for good FCS defenses to keep UNH in check.

[UNHWildCats]

We are a completely different team than you saw in 2005...

We are a team that relies on a great defense and ton of defensive speed. This isn't the same blazing guns offense you saw then. Farley learned in playing Appy that defense, especially d-line, wins championships. Your offensive line is going to have a tough time with our defensive line that goes 8 deep.

I just don't think that points are going to be as easy to come by as you think they will...

When I said who ever has the ball last may win, I wasnt suggesting ablowout, but perhaps a team gets down into FG range and boots a FG to win 17-14 or something. I just think the score will be close wether low scoring or high scoring.

[bcrawf]

When I said who ever has the ball last may win, I wasnt suggesting ablowout, but perhaps a team gets down into FG range and boots a FG to win 17-14 or something. I just think the score will be close wether low scoring or high scoring.

Fair Enough!!xthumbsupx

[terrierbob]

It's actually interesting that the only seed where most fans are NOT seeing a potential upset is the #4 SIU/EIU game (which I agree with).

UNH is dangerous, though I don't see them losing in the UNI-dome. Still, that's a much tougher first round matchup for the #1 seed than we've seen in the past.

EWU/McNeese - I think McNeese will send EWU packing, but again, not exactly a slamdunk.

Wofford will be an interesting matchup for Montana. Unlike most other teams, Wofford's fans haven't been actively piling on the arrests/SoS of Montana, so I know a lot less about this team than some other playoff teams. They're a tested team in a tough conference, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Terriers emerge from Wash-Griz victorious (though, of course, I hope they won't!)

SIU may as well put EIU on their friggin' schedule, as often as it's happened. I think the Salukis get a bit of a pass.


Basically, when we don't turn it over we can beat anyone in the playoff field. Over two TOs, though, and we're average, at best. We did have more total offence that NC State, but shot ourselves in the foot all game. GSU/Wofford was just a shootout, but we had one TO near their goal. Elon was the recepient of 3 or 4 gifts. When we're on, we're pretty hard to beat, and we churn out a lot of O. I don't know much about the Griz, either.

[Squealofthepig]

Basically, when we don't turn it over we can beat anyone in the playoff field. Over two TOs, though, and we're average, at best. We did have more total offence that NC State, but shot ourselves in the foot all game. GSU/Wofford was just a shootout, but we had one TO near their goal. Elon was the recepient of 3 or 4 gifts. When we're on, we're pretty hard to beat, and we churn out a lot of O. I don't know much about the Griz, either.

On turnovers, the Griz are pretty active, and generally capitalize on turnovers. However, the Griz also generally do not put teams away early, and let even teams they should blow out stick around. A play here or a play there and many teams we've played this season could have been able to drop a loss on us pretty easily (EWU most notably, which required an amazing drive and stunning fourth down conversion to stay in the game...) We also do a decent job of adjusting in the second half which allows us to re-establish ourselves, but a team that strikes quick and doesn't give us opportunities could keep the crowd out and have us back on our heals, which we haven't been rocked back on much.

Overall, the Griz win ugly, and find ways to win tough games (even when the game is much tougher than it should be). You can't count us out, but force us into unfamiliar territory and take care of the ball and the Terriers could come out of Missoula with a win.

[WrenFGun]

Frankly, I think UNH beating UNI would be a MUCH bigger upset than EWU/McNeese or Wofford/Montana. While I praised UNH extensively this season, they are a very flawed team. I will say though, Ricky Santos FINALLY looked healthy against UMaine, so that should help. He was clearly NOT healthy against Northeastern or UMass, and thus, they lost both of those games.

UNH needs to do a lot of things right if they want to win:

1. Make the TOP reasonable. UNH needs to have the ball for at least 25-30 minutes to win.
2. Work the middle with Scott Sicko. UNH has quality WR's in Boyle and Levan, but they struggle in the RZ because of their lack of separation. Sicko is a GREAT TE and has potential to be a game changer.
3. Keep the defense honest with the run. We can't throw every down.
4. You need to get UNI off the field on 3rd and Long.
5. Protect Ricky.

I'm willing to say it's POSSIBLE, but UNH needs to play PERFECT or UNI needs to make some mistakes for UNH to have a shot. It would truly be a monumental upset, IMO, as UNI is a much, much better team.

[th0m]

Is nobody even considering JMU could upset ASU, or is that simply not regarded as an upset?

[UMass922]

Is nobody even considering JMU could upset ASU, or is that simply not regarded as an upset?

I would regard it as an upset (though of course I'll be rooting for you guys), but I think for now people are just talking about the four seeded teams.

[CamelCityAppFan]

Is nobody even considering JMU could upset ASU, or is that simply not regarded as an upset?

I, for one, would be very upset if ASU lost to JMU...

I think the most likely of the 4 seeds to lose would be first McNeese, and then Montana.

McNeese really has played a pretty week schedule. I know they have an explosive offense and have put up a lot of points, but I don't know if that has prepared them to play higher quality teams in close games.

Montana, when they decide to play, is pretty darn good. But they have a habit of letting opponents stay in games too long, and against a scrappy and improvising Wofford team, that could be disastrous.

We'll find out this weekend. This seems to be the year of the upset in college football...

[MSU_77]

I, for one, would be very upset if ASU lost to JMU...

I think the most likely of the 4 seeds to lose would be first McNeese, and then Montana.

McNeese really has played a pretty week schedule. I know they have an explosive offense and have put up a lot of points, but I don't know if that has prepared them to play higher quality teams in close games.

Montana, when they decide to play, is pretty darn good. But they have a habit of letting opponents stay in games too long, and against a scrappy and improvising Wofford team, that could be disastrous.

We'll find out this weekend. This seems to be the year of the upset in college football...

I really don't believe that McNeese will be upset this weekend, but of course that's why they play the games. A running team would be more likely to upset the Cowboys than a passing team, in general. You need to keep the McNeese offense off the field to win.

[skinny_uncle]

It's actually interesting that the only seed where most fans are NOT seeing a potential upset is the #4 SIU/EIU game (which I agree with).

UNH is dangerous, though I don't see them losing in the UNI-dome. Still, that's a much tougher first round matchup for the #1 seed than we've seen in the past.

EWU/McNeese - I think McNeese will send EWU packing, but again, not exactly a slamdunk.

Wofford will be an interesting matchup for Montana. Unlike most other teams, Wofford's fans haven't been actively piling on the arrests/SoS of Montana, so I know a lot less about this team than some other playoff teams. They're a tested team in a tough conference, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Terriers emerge from Wash-Griz victorious (though, of course, I hope they won't!)

SIU may as well put EIU on their friggin' schedule, as often as it's happened. I think the Salukis get a bit of a pass.
At one time, they were a regularly scheduled opponent. The only time we have met them in the playoffs that I recall is 2005. They are a former member of the Gateway, leaving after 1995 to join the OVC. This will be the 64th time we have played. SIU leads the series 36-26-1.

[UNH SUPERFAN]

Is nobody even considering JMU could upset ASU, or is that simply not regarded as an upset?
I am. I think this will be a very tough matchup for ASU. JMU could certainly pull off an upset.

[UNH SUPERFAN]

Frankly, I think UNH beating UNI would be a MUCH bigger upset than EWU/McNeese or Wofford/Montana. While I praised UNH extensively this season, they are a very flawed team. I will say though, Ricky Santos FINALLY looked healthy against UMaine, so that should help. He was clearly NOT healthy against Northeastern or UMass, and thus, they lost both of those games.

UNH needs to do a lot of things right if they want to win:

1. Make the TOP reasonable. UNH needs to have the ball for at least 25-30 minutes to win.
2. Work the middle with Scott Sicko. UNH has quality WR's in Boyle and Levan, but they struggle in the RZ because of their lack of separation. Sicko is a GREAT TE and has potential to be a game changer.
3. Keep the defense honest with the run. We can't throw every down.
4. You need to get UNI off the field on 3rd and Long.
5. Protect Ricky.

I'm willing to say it's POSSIBLE, but UNH needs to play PERFECT or UNI needs to make some mistakes for UNH to have a shot. It would truly be a monumental upset, IMO, as UNI is a much, much better team.

I think playing i nside will help UNH consideably. This is a team that plays better in good weather.

[skinny_uncle]

I think playing i nside will help UNH consideably. This is a team that plays better in good weather.
Don't try any audibles.
xnodx

[Ronin]

OK, it seems the committee put more emphasis on record and not SOS. So for fun I listed their matchups along with the Sagarin rankings... enjoy!

UNI (1)
NH (17)

Del (7)
Del St. (31)

SIU (2)
EIU (49)

Mass (5)
Fordham (40)


McNeese (4)
EWU (21)

ASU (3)
JM (8)

Montana (12)
Wofford (9)

Richmond (6)
EKU (26)

From a predictive standpoint the following should win easily, but nothing is a given Richmond, McNeese, Mass, SIU and Del. Montana and UNI both have an 80% or better winning percentage at home.

[crunifan]

Don't try any audibles.
xnodx

It's so cute. Those Wildcats have no idea what is coming. xrotatehx

[bigskyrocks]

from my understanding wofford is a running team and well montana is a pretty darn good run stopping team. they have a bend but dont break defense, they will allow teams to drive and drive and drive on them (ewu ) but still find ways to win. i dont really know too much about wofford so i am just going on a gut feeling and saying montana wins by 11. but wofford outgains montana by at least 150

[Houndawg]

It's a good chance there too. Both Wofford and UNH are very good teams.

I think UNH peaked too early, and UNI has a ferocious defense. Sanders will have thm saying "Ricky who?".

[clearthinker]

But this year UNH has no Ball(s)xlolx Get it? Oh I kill me!!;)


Do you guys detassel corn in the summer or do the bees and wind do all the work now? Is that a major at UNI :)

Just kidding--I grew up in Chicago and my Uncle farmed near a little town called Belle Plaine--I treasured those days---you live in a great state

[Houndawg]

It's actually interesting that the only seed where most fans are NOT seeing a potential upset is the #4 SIU/EIU game (which I agree with).

UNH is dangerous, though I don't see them losing in the UNI-dome. Still, that's a much tougher first round matchup for the #1 seed than we've seen in the past.

EWU/McNeese - I think McNeese will send EWU packing, but again, not exactly a slamdunk.

Wofford will be an interesting matchup for Montana. Unlike most other teams, Wofford's fans haven't been actively piling on the arrests/SoS of Montana, so I know a lot less about this team than some other playoff teams. They're a tested team in a tough conference, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Terriers emerge from Wash-Griz victorious (though, of course, I hope they won't!)

SIU may as well put EIU on their friggin' schedule, as often as it's happened. I think the Salukis get a bit of a pass.

WE get a bit of a pass? Look who's talking. We're more vulnerable than people think, our entire starting secondary is hurt.

[Houndawg]

I think UNH is being overrated based on their reputation. I'd love to see them pull off the upset, but I consider it a long-shot. Their defense isn't very good, they've struggled down the stretch, and Santos has been battling an injury. I just don't see them keeping up with UNI. I think it's possible that EWU over McNeese state would be as likely an upset as UNH over UNI.

Santos won't have the ball very often.

[skinny_uncle]

WE get a bit of a pass? Look who's talking. We're more vulnerable than people think, our entire starting secondary is hurt.
http://www.salukitalk.net/st/images/smiles/eusa_shhh.gif

[Houndawg]

I really don't believe that McNeese will be upset this weekend, but of course that's why they play the games. A running team would be more likely to upset the Cowboys than a passing team, in general. You need to keep the McNeese offense off the field to win.

One thing that can hurt a team that's been emptying the bench all year is the conditioning to go a full 4 quarters may not be what it was early in the year. I mean mentally, too.

[UNH SUPERFAN]

It's so cute. Those Wildcats have no idea what is coming. xrotatehx

That's what Delaware thought in Game 1 in 2004 after their national championship the year before: UNH won

That's what Rutgers thought the next week in 2004 after they beat Michigan State on the road: UNH won

That's what George Southern thought first round of the playoffs, 2004: UNH won

That's what Big 10 Northwestern thought in Game 1 last year: UNH won

That's what Marshall thought this year: UNH won

This UNH team may not be what it was a year ago but, make no mistake, if you think you can walk over any team quaterbacked by Rick Santos you are a bigger horses ass than you appear on this board.

[PantherRob82]

There is one slam dunk and that is SIU over EIU. That game will be ugly by halftime...

I agree.

[PantherRob82]

your game too will be over before the half.

I think we're a lot better team than we were in 2005, and UNH lost Santos. We seem to be better all around, and the games I've seen UNH in this year were not impressive.

That being said, I don't think they will b a pushover, and anytime you face a QB like Santos, anything can happen.

[PantherRob82]

When I said who ever has the ball last may win, I wasnt suggesting ablowout, but perhaps a team gets down into FG range and boots a FG to win 17-14 or something. I just think the score will be close wether low scoring or high scoring.

With your D, you guys would not be in a game where you only score 17 points.

[PantherRob82]

That's what Delaware thought in Game 1 in 2004 after their national championship the year before: UNH won

That's what Rutgers thought the next week in 2004 after they beat Michigan State on the road: UNH won

That's what George Southern thought first round of the playoffs, 2004: UNH won

That's what Big 10 Northwestern thought in Game 1 last year: UNH won

That's what Marshall thought this year: UNH won

This UNH team may not be what it was a year ago but, make no mistake, if you think you can walk over any team quaterbacked by Rick Santos you are a bigger horses ass than you appear on this board.

UNI will not overlook this team at all. We know what we are up against.

[MSU_77]

One thing that can hurt a team that's been emptying the bench all year is the conditioning to go a full 4 quarters may not be what it was early in the year. I mean mentally, too.

That is true. However, having played a lot has helped the 2nd and 3rd deep players get game experience. Given all our injuries, that has paid off.

[rcny46]

We are a completely different team than you saw in 2005...

We are a team that relies on a great defense and ton of defensive speed. This isn't the same blazing guns offense you saw then. Farley learned in playing Appy that defense, especially d-line, wins championships. Your offensive line is going to have a tough time with our defensive line that goes 8 deep.

I just don't think that points are going to be as easy to come by as you think they will...


While I would love to see UNH win this game,and am very excited that they're in,I think that is the long shot of long shots,and could get ugly.I would rather have seen them go anywhere else but Cedar Falls to tell you the truth.

[ASUMountaineer]

EWU over McNeese St...maybe Deleware St. over the Blue Hens. Other than that, I don't see many. (I think JMU could also upset Appalachian, but I can't speak of such things:))

[McDABest]

If we don't show up EWU will win, but we will. That is Matt Viatar's specialty. EWU will not win they may scare us and will come "close, but no cigar."

[crunifan]

That's what Delaware thought in Game 1 in 2004 after their national championship the year before: UNH won

That's what Rutgers thought the next week in 2004 after they beat Michigan State on the road: UNH won

That's what George Southern thought first round of the playoffs, 2004: UNH won

That's what Big 10 Northwestern thought in Game 1 last year: UNH won

That's what Marshall thought this year: UNH won

This UNH team may not be what it was a year ago but, make no mistake, if you think you can walk over any team quaterbacked by Rick Santos you are a bigger horses ass than you appear on this board.

I was referring to the fact that you think playing inside will help you considerably. I think you will find that you would rather play UNI outside than inside our Dome.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

UNI, don't worry -- you are through to the 2nd round. xthumbsupx

UNH certainly can't score points against tough defensive teams--they get shut down all the time. Santos is certainly quite overrated AND has proven many times over that he can't pull off an upset on the road. No D. Ball means no receivers of note. UNH certainly hasn't played any teams anywhere nearly as talented as UNI--IMHO the Gateway has definitely nailed down the title of best FCS league in the nation. Loud crowds really bother UNH. And, I have NO doubt that your staff will outcoach that sorry bunch from Durham.

It is too bad that your Panthers are being forced "to go through the motions" before facing off against the Blue Hens or the Hornets--probably the Hornets since UD, Cuff, and Flacco & the DE transfer from ND really aren't very good either, ... At least, you should be able to get in some 3/4 speed scrimmaging to keep you sharp for Del State.

[strike00]

we know that UNH will come ready to play. Im looking forward to it.

UNI's defense is much improved over the 2005 version, but the one area of concern is that UNI can give up yards passing to gunslinging teams. We do usually keep them from scoring though.

UNH definately has a good chance at the upset, but I think UNI will win a close one. It will not be easy by any means.

Is Santos hurt?


Oh, and agree SIU should roll EIU.

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

If you beleive all the posts you read here, you can't help but say the Griz are the underdog and my upset pick of the week xsmiley_wix

I predict a close one, like 24-21, griz win it in the 4th after nearly giving me a heart attack.

[crunifan]

UNI, don't worry -- you are through to the 2nd round. xthumbsupx

UNH certainly can't score points against tough defensive teams--they get shut down all the time. Santos is certainly quite overrated AND has proven many times over that he can't pull off an upset on the road. No D. Ball means no receivers of note. UNH certainly hasn't played any teams anywhere nearly as talented as UNI--IMHO the Gateway has definitely nailed down the title of best FCS league in the nation. Loud crowds really bother UNH. And, I have NO doubt that your staff will outcoach that sorry bunch from Durham.

It is too bad that your Panthers are being forced "to go through the motions" before facing off against the Blue Hens or the Hornets--probably the Hornets since UD, Cuff, and Flacco & the DE transfer from ND really aren't very good either, ... At least, you should be able to get in some 3/4 speed scrimmaging to keep you sharp for Del State.

Umm...this is all sarcasm right? I'm not trying to be a smartass, I'm really hoping you aren't serious.

[McDABest]

My upset pick is DSU. I just have a gutsy feeling that DSU is for real. This will be a close game where momentum plays a big part, and UD does not have as much momentum as DSU. DSU isn't hot right now, but UD has the least momentum out of the 16 teams.

[UMass922]

Umm...this is all sarcasm right? I'm not trying to be a smartass, I'm really hoping you aren't serious.

I think it's safe to say that's sarcasm.

[uofmman1122]

If you beleive all the posts you read here, you can't help but say the Griz are the underdog and my upset pick of the week xsmiley_wix

I predict a close one, like 24-21, griz win it in the 4th after nearly giving me a heart attack.I thought the same thing. On paper, Wofford is the underdog, but I always thought the underdog was the team that no one expects to win. Huh...Montana kind of fits that bill on this board, at least. It'll be interesting to see how the columnists make their predictions. xcoffeex

[UMass922]

My upset pick is DSU. I just have a gutsy feeling that DSU is for real. This will be a close game where momentum plays a big part, and UD does not have as much momentum as DSU. DSU isn't hot right now, but UD has the least momentum out of the 16 teams.

Much as I'd love for DSU to spring the upset, I don't think it's very likely. DSU hasn't looked pretty in a lot of its wins this year, and has had to pull off a lot of big comebacks. While it's true that Delaware hasn't exactly finished the season strongly, I still think that DSU is going to be overmatched. But hey, any given Saturday . . . (er, Friday . . .)

[McDABest]

Much as I'd love for DSU to spring the upset, I don't think it's very likely. DSU hasn't looked pretty in a lot of its wins this year, and has had to pull off a lot of big comebacks. While it's true that Delaware hasn't exactly finished the season strongly, I still think that DSU is going to be overmatched. But hey, any given Saturday . . . (er, Friday . . .)

Yeah, I know this is a tossup and will probably go to UD, but I like upsets because this is "any given Saturday. . . (er, Friday . . .)" xsmiley_wix

[McNeese_beat]

I think since Colgate's 2003 run, the OVC, the MEAC and the Patriot are a combined 0-12. I think the games that involve those three conferences are pretty close to slam dunks for the opponent.

Delaware State, which may be pretty good, is playing a struggling Delaware team and has a big rivalry incentive, may be the exception.

[mvemjsunpx]

Well, no game is really a "slam dunk", but if you're talking about games where an upset is quite unlikely:

I think all the seed games are slam dunks except McNeese-EWU. New Hampshire doesn't play defense, Eastern Illinois isn't anything special, & Wofford doesn't match-up well with the Griz.

UMass-Fordham also seems like a slam dunk, since the Rams are clearly the weakest team in the field. Losing to Bucknell is not a good way to gain momentum. Richmond should beat EKU as well. Only App. State has a worse run defense than the Colonels.

The most likely upset is JMU over Appalachian State. The Mountaineers can't stop the run & the Dukes run the ball very well. If the JMU defense can contain Edwards & co. at all—and their run defense stats indicate they can—they should win.

I'm really not sure about the Battle of Delaware. First of all, I'm not sure who's the favorite. Second, the Blue Hens haven't played that well lately. Third, the Hornets are very enigmatic. They're 10-0 against FCS despite ranking in the bottom-10 in total offense.

[Tribe4SF]

Slam dunks are UNI, SIU and UMass. Upset possibilities are JMU, Wofford and EWU.

[Sam Adams]

Note - UNI average more points and yardage per game, and allows FAR less.

Correct, and UNH plays in a tougher conference. UNH will lose to UNI but not because of statistics. Nova would have been a tougher opponent - Nova got Wofforded.

[Houndawg]

Correct, and UNH plays in a much tougher conference.

xlolx They don't even have to play everyone in their conference! UNH got a gift from the committee, YSU is a better team.

[Oldhen]

Delaware State, which may be pretty good, is playing a struggling Delaware team and has a big rivalry incentive, may be the exception.


This is an interesting game, from lots of different perspectives.

On the face of it, UD is more talented, particularly at offensive skill positions. They've played a MUCH tougher schedule (including a Navy team that looks to go 8-4, and three FCS playoff teams).

It's very tempting to throw out or minimize the 'Nova loss, as it's very difficult to keep up the pace in a stretch that had Navy, JMU, Richmond, and then a 'Nova team that probably got s@rewed in the playoff selection.

The intangibles all line up for DSU, and they may have better coaching. Home field advantage is probably a wash. UD has struggled answering other teams intensity at times (though other times they've out-hit folks badly).

This UD team has played badly in two losses, and played well in one. They show up on top of their game, it won't be close, regardless of how amped/hyped DSU is. UD plays anything less than their top effort, it will be close and decided late.

[devilhen]

My upset pick is DSU. I just have a gutsy feeling that DSU is for real. This will be a close game where momentum plays a big part, and UD does not have as much momentum as DSU. DSU isn't hot right now, but UD has the least momentum out of the 16 teams.

Let me remind you that DSU hasn't scored more that 29 points all year, while Delaware has only scored less that 27 once. You can't tell me that Delaware's defense is worse than those in the MEAC or that DSU's offense is as good as Delaware's. This seems to be the "sentimental" pick, but the upset isn't going to happen...
Delaware can beat any team in this field, let alone DSU.

[ChickenMan]

ranking the chances for an upset

1 - EWU over McNeese St
2 - Wofford over Montana
3 - EKU over Richmond
4 - UNH over UNI
5 - JMU over ASU
6 - Del St over Delaware
7 - EIU over SIU
8 - Fordham over UMass

[LCFan21]

If Fordham were undefeated or 10-1 it wouldnt be a slam dunk but this Fordham team has 3 losses and has played in a lot of close games in a league that isnt too strong.


Fordham and Massachusetts had to go through similar paths to post their final records, as the teams faced three common opponents: Colgate, Holy Cross and Rhode Island. The Rams came out with the better mark in those games, going 3-0 against the competition while Massachusetts was 2-1 with a loss to Rhode Island. Both teams hosted Holy Cross and traveled to Colgate and Rhode Island.

Do your homework!

[McNeese_beat]

This is an interesting game, from lots of different perspectives.

On the face of it, UD is more talented, particularly at offensive skill positions. They've played a MUCH tougher schedule (including a Navy team that looks to go 8-4, and three FCS playoff teams).

It's very tempting to throw out or minimize the 'Nova loss, as it's very difficult to keep up the pace in a stretch that had Navy, JMU, Richmond, and then a 'Nova team that probably got s@rewed in the playoff selection.

The intangibles all line up for DSU, and they may have better coaching. Home field advantage is probably a wash. UD has struggled answering other teams intensity at times (though other times they've out-hit folks badly).

This UD team has played badly in two losses, and played well in one. They show up on top of their game, it won't be close, regardless of how amped/hyped DSU is. UD plays anything less than their top effort, it will be close and decided late.

I hate to say I'm sorta pulling for your opponent, but I like the way the coach carried himself on ESPNU yesterday, I think the player that comes on here and seems to have pretty good perspective for a guy with so much invested into it is pretty cool and plus, there's the whole underdog thing...

All the respect in the world for the Hens, but this time I'll be pulling for the Hornets...

xthumbsupx

[Oldhen]

I hate to say I'm sorta pulling for your opponent, but I like the way the coach carried himself on ESPNU yesterday, I think the player that comes on here and seems to have pretty good perspective for a guy with so much invested into it is pretty cool and plus, there's the whole underdog thing...

All the respect in the world for the Hens, but this time I'll be pulling for the Hornets...

xthumbsupx


Lavan's a class act, not question. He's got the program moving in the right direction for the first time since Bill Collick left. I'm rooting for DSU do do great things, but lose to UD anytime we might play... and accoring to UD's new president, it'll happen again and again.

PS... there are many of us UD football fans who are DSU fans, too. Back in the Pursycki/Collick years several decades back, many of us lobbied for a UD/DSU game. No question who I'll be rooting for Friday, but I root for DSU the other 364 days, too.

[McDABest]

Let me remind you that DSU hasn't scored more that 29 points all year, while Delaware has only scored less that 27 once. You can't tell me that Delaware's defense is worse than those in the MEAC or that DSU's offense is as good as Delaware's. This seems to be the "sentimental" pick, but the upset isn't going to happen...
Delaware can beat any team in this field, let alone DSU.

I did not know that, but when there is a game that has at least a shot at a rivalry, ANYTHING can happen. This year we played a rival in 3-8 Northwestern State, and we barely won off of a last-second interception and a bad snap. They almost won the game. If the players treat it as a rivalry, which i think they will since they are so close, throw away all stats, records, etc. because the only thing that matters is the game.

[McDABest]

ranking the chances for an upset

1 - EWU over McNeese St
2 - Wofford over Montana
3 - EKU over Richmond
4 - UNH over UNI
5 - JMU over ASU
6 - Del St over Delaware
7 - EIU over SIU
8 - Fordham over UMass

I don't quite think so. It does have a chance at an upset, but every game does. Everyone who thinks that EWU is going to beat us must think that we won't come in the game ready to handle business. I can't remember who said this, but a Georgia Southern fan said that we are PAST DUE for a NC. We are not going to let this opportunity slip like all the others.

P.S. I've heard all about EWU's offense, but what about their defense. Can someone please tell me about that. I'd love to know.

[dwtime]

But this year UNH has no Ball(s)xlolx Get it? Oh I kill me!!;)

True we have no David Ball, butt we have the Boyle that will be a festering irritation for UNI fans and players alike! xsmiley_wix

[89Hen]

Is there any game in the first round that is going to be a slam dunk for the higher seed? I don't see any at all. And being a newbie to FCS I don't know the answer to this, is this the deepest field that you guys remember? As you could easily make a case for any team to make a run deep in the playoffs
UMass over Fordham should be. The PL is WAY down this year.

[Ronbo]

wofford over montana is not a stretch, and is my pick for an upset. Wofford is battle-tested, and i dont think montana can say the same. They are undefeated, and respect is granted for that achievement, but ill take the 3-loss terriers in a tougher conference. Montana has played 1 playoff team (a deep seeded E. Wahington who they only beat by 1-point at home) and no FBS team. Wofford beat the defending National Champs.. convincingly at that while outgaining the Wolfpack of NC State. I am a homer, and i understand that, but i think everyone should open this book and read a few pages instead before they place judgement based on the cover. It should turn into a good story.

We're not battle tested? We have 22 seniors that have been in 8 playoff games including 1 NC and 2 Semi's. We have another 19 juniors that have 4 playoff games including last years semi. We have another 27 sophmores that have 3 playoff games experience including the semi last year. Not battle tested? You are pretty ignorant.

[RE/MAXGriz]

I see the only games that could be remotley considered to be "easy" for the top seeds would be:

New Hampshire @ UNI
&
Fordham @ Umass

[griz&beer]

UMass and UNI will roll.

[ChickenMan]

I don't quite think so. It does have a chance at an upset, but every game does. Everyone who thinks that EWU is going to beat us must think that we won't come in the game ready to handle business. I can't remember who said this, but a Georgia Southern fan said that we are PAST DUE for a NC. We are not going to let this opportunity slip like all the others.

P.S. I've heard all about EWU's offense, but what about their defense. Can someone please tell me about that. I'd love to know.



EWU stats...


http://www.bigskyconf.com/stats.asp?page=stats/Football/2007/EWU.HTM

[Pantherpower]

True we have no David Ball, butt we have the Boyle that will be a festering irritation for UNI fans and players alike! xsmiley_wix

That may have trumped the Ball comment....touche!xthumbsupx

[JohnStOnge]

I don't quite think so. It does have a chance at an upset, but every game does. Everyone who thinks that EWU is going to beat us must think that we won't come in the game ready to handle business. I can't remember who said this, but a Georgia Southern fan said that we are PAST DUE for a NC. We are not going to let this opportunity slip like all the others.

P.S. I've heard all about EWU's offense, but what about their defense. Can someone please tell me about that. I'd love to know.

Well...by the NCAA stats they're pretty far down the list in total defense at 73rd but have done pretty well in scoring defense at 25th. They played one game against Montana Western which helped their stats (7 points, 244 yards) and another against Brigham Young that hurt their scoring defense stats (Brigham Young, 42 points) but was pretty much a wash as far as total defense goes (377 total yards).

[McDABest]

Thanks, I'm not going to say that will cinch it for us, but there is more than one side of a football. I think that it will still be close, but I like us because we have a defense. We'll have a better one if Bryan Smith shows up. Will he? I've heard that he will and won't.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

Let me remind you that DSU hasn't scored more that 29 points all year, while Delaware has only scored less that 27 once. You can't tell me that Delaware's defense is worse than those in the MEAC or that DSU's offense is as good as Delaware's. This seems to be the "sentimental" pick, but the upset isn't going to happen...
Delaware can beat any team in this field, let alone DSU.

Blue Hens 59, Hornets 21. Go check out the Navy game, ... If they get hot, Delaware may very well be in the title game in 4 weeks.

[AZGrizFan]

Is there any game in the first round that is going to be a slam dunk for the higher seed? I don't see any at all. And being a newbie to FCS I don't know the answer to this, is this the deepest field that you guys remember? As you could easily make a case for any team to make a run deep in the playoffs

According to my polls the entire top half of the bracket is a slam dunk for the home teams. xeyebrowx

[mvemjsunpx]

This is an interesting game, from lots of different perspectives.

On the face of it, UD is more talented, particularly at offensive skill positions. They've played a MUCH tougher schedule (including a Navy team that looks to go 8-4, and three FCS playoff teams).

It's very tempting to throw out or minimize the 'Nova loss, as it's very difficult to keep up the pace in a stretch that had Navy, JMU, Richmond, and then a 'Nova team that probably got s@rewed in the playoff selection.

The intangibles all line up for DSU, and they may have better coaching. Home field advantage is probably a wash. UD has struggled answering other teams intensity at times (though other times they've out-hit folks badly).

This UD team has played badly in two losses, and played well in one. They show up on top of their game, it won't be close, regardless of how amped/hyped DSU is. UD plays anything less than their top effort, it will be close and decided late.


I don't know about that, DSU has a definite NFL prospect in Shaheer McBride. The Hornets also have a good Syracuse dropdown at RB in Kareem Jones. Jones probably isn't as good as Omar Cuff, but he's still solid.

[Tribe4SF]

Fordham and Massachusetts had to go through similar paths to post their final records, as the teams faced three common opponents: Colgate, Holy Cross and Rhode Island. The Rams came out with the better mark in those games, going 3-0 against the competition while Massachusetts was 2-1 with a loss to Rhode Island. Both teams hosted Holy Cross and traveled to Colgate and Rhode Island.

Do your homework!

xsmiley_wix And you need to finish your homework!

You can cherry pick the URI games and try to make something meaningful out of it, but you know the circumstances. You didn't finish your homework, and neither did Fordham. The loss to Bucknell was atrocious, while UMass closed with big wins over teams in playoff contention. UMass lost to URI in a monsoon, and 24-14 to Boston College.

Fordham will need more than luck to have any shot in this game.

[Sam Adams]

Fordham is the distinct underdog. Massachusetts could be upset but not if Fordham is going to ignore the fact that Massachusetts is one of the top teams in the country. Fordham will have to play their best game of the year and Massachusetts would have to play their worst game.

[Oldhen]

I don't know about that, DSU has a definite NFL prospect in Shaheer McBride. The Hornets also have a good Syracuse dropdown at RB in Kareem Jones. Jones probably isn't as good as Omar Cuff, but he's still solid.

I think they're both good, but look at the QB's, and look three deep everywhere else. The only place UD drops off is QB, but that's true of everybody. UD's WR/TE/RB backups (and their backups) produce very well.

I stand by my assessment.