Realistic At-Large Consideration

[danefan]

OK OK, lets try and have a rational discussion here....this is going to be very tough for the committee.

IMO, there is really one at-large that is really really open to something weird.

There are two threshold issues the committee has to consider in making this decision:

(1) Will they take a 7-4 team?
- If the answer is yes I see two teams in contention. UNH & 'Nova. GSU doesn't have 7 DI wins and I think its a relatively safe assumption that will keep them out. Naturally the next question arises....

(2) Will they take 5 CAA teams?
- If yes, then the 'Nova v. UNH argument occurs. I really don't know, but I would lean towards 'Nova because of less CAA loses.

Now, here comes the real fun.
(3) Who's next?
If the Committee answers "No" to either of the above questions then I thnk the following teams get their names on the whiteboard, at least momentarily (listed by record):

Dayton - 10-1
San Diego - 9-2
Norfolk State - 8-3
Alabama A&M - 8-3
Albany 8-3


So answer the questions folks....I'll answer too in a reply.xthumbsupx

[lizrdgizrd]

(3) Who's next?
If the Committee answers "No" to either of the above questions then I thnk the following teams get their names on the whiteboard, at least momentarily (listed by record):

Dayton - 10-1
San Diego - 9-2
Norfolk State - 8-3
Alabama A&M - 8-3
Albany 8-3


So answer the questions folks....I'll answer too in a reply.xthumbsupx
San Diego will not get in. they didn't get in at 10-0 and won't get in at 9-2.

I think the rest might have a shot if the 7-4 teams aren't taken.

[BobbyMo]

I would love to see Albany get a shot. I think 5 from any conference is a bit much.

[UMass922]

Last year the committee took a 7-4 Montana State team over mid-major teams (San Diego and Monmouth) with better records, so I would presume that a 7-4 New Hampshire or Villanova is going to get chosen over any mid-major team this year.

Aside from those two CAA teams, the only other team I think with a realistic shot at claiming the last at-large spot is 8-3 Norfolk State. Keep in mind that NSU has a D-II win, so all three teams have the same number of D-I wins (seven). The biggest factor in NSU's favor is that UNH or 'Nova would be an unprecedented fifth team from a single conference--even though according to the committee's stated criteria, at-larges are supposed to be selected regardless of conference. But we'll see.

The other possible edge that NSU has is having one less loss. Has an eligible three-loss team from an auto-bid conference ever missed the playoffs the same year that a four-loss team has been selected as an at-large? That might be an unprecedented move as well.

So it's hard to say what happens. But I do think that it's probably down to those three teams (UNH, 'Nova, NSU) for the final spot, with SIU, Richmond, Delaware, JMU, ASU, EWU, and EIU all seeming pretty safe bets to be at-large selections.

[Dane96]

Last year the committee took a 7-4 Montana State team over mid-major teams (San Diego and Monmouth) with better records, so I would presume that a 7-4 New Hampshire or Villanova is going to get chosen over any mid-major team this year.

Aside from those two CAA teams, the only other team I think with a realistic shot at claiming the last at-large spot is 8-3 Norfolk State. Keep in mind that NSU has a D-II win, so all three teams have the same number of D-I wins (seven). The biggest factor in NSU's favor is that UNH or 'Nova would be an unprecedented fifth team from a single conference--even though according to the committee's stated criteria, at-larges are supposed to be selected regardless of conference. But we'll see.

The other possible edge that NSU has is having one less loss. Has an eligible three-loss team from an auto-bid conference ever missed the playoffs the same year that a four-loss team has been selected as an at-large? That might be an unprecedented move as well.

So it's hard to say what happens. But I do think that it's probably down to those three teams (UNH, 'Nova, NSU) for the final spot, with SIU, Richmond, Delaware, JMU, ASU, EWU, and EIU all seeming pretty safe bets to be at-large selections.

Poor argument on why Albany would be left out: Monmouth played three bad FCS teams in the OOC (Morgan State, Fordham, and St. Pete's) and beat the one good team they faced. Quite frankly, SOS was not there.

San Diego played ONE good team...and that was AFTER the selection show.

Albany most likely is on the bubble at 8-3...with the two point opening day loss at Colgate looming as the "what do we do."

Norfolk State doesn't have much over the Danes this year in the schedule dept....and neither did San Diego and Monmouth last year.

'Nova and/or UNH would be my guess...with 'Nova getting the nod.

[raginram]

(1) Will they take a 7-4 team?
- No but if so it might be nova

(2) Will they take 5 CAA teams?
I just dont see it but then again that DSU-UD matchup is tough to pass up especially if these two wont play each other until at least the next decade (2012 at least)

(3) Who's next?[/B]


Dayton - 10-1 xconfusedx
San Diego - 9-2 if they went unbeaten last year and not get in what makes you think they are getting in this year
Norfolk State - 8-3 for a team having a great season their loss to Howard (4-7) really looks bad
Alabama A&M - 8-3 only one win against teams with winning record
Albany 8-3 xconfusedx

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I choose Albany xcoffeex

[danefan]

GPI Rankings (last week):
Dayton - 34
Albany - 42
Alabama A&M - 46
San Diego - 48
Norfolk State - 59

Massey SOS:
Albany - 66
Norfolk State - 80
Alabama A&M - 94
San Diego - 109
Dayton - 104

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Poor argument on why Albany would be left out: Monmouth played three bad FCS teams in the OOC (Morgan State, Fordham, and St. Pete's) and beat the one good team they faced. Quite frankly, SOS was not there.

San Diego played ONE good team...and that was AFTER the selection show.

Albany most likely is on the bubble at 8-3...with the two point opening day loss at Colgate looming as the "what do we do."

Norfolk State doesn't have much over the Danes this year in the schedule dept....and neither did San Diego and Monmouth last year.

'Nova and/or UNH would be my guess...with 'Nova getting the nod.


I think it is too early to count Dayton out of the picture just yet. If it did come down to a head to head to head (Dayton, Albany, Norfolk) I think Dayton would get the nod. They have a higher ranking GPI at 34 with Albany at 42 and Norfolk at 59. The PFL is also ranked higher than the NEC. Also Norfolk has no quality wins over a playoff team.

[danefan]

Dayton will be hurt by playing two Sub-DI games. SOS is too low IMO.

[UNHWildCats]

GPI Rankings (last week):
UNH - 16
Dayton - 34
Albany - 42
Alabama A&M - 46
San Diego - 48
Norfolk State - 59

Massey SOS:
UNH - 15
Albany - 66
Norfolk State - 80
Alabama A&M - 94
San Diego - 109
Dayton - 104
There

[danefan]

There

I agree. But SOS and GPI comparison won't matter if the committee answers the first two question in the positive.

[UMass922]

Poor argument on why Albany would be left out: Monmouth played three bad FCS teams in the OOC (Morgan State, Fordham, and St. Pete's) and beat the one good team they faced. Quite frankly, SOS was not there.

San Diego played ONE good team...and that was AFTER the selection show.

Albany most likely is on the bubble at 8-3...with the two point opening day loss at Colgate looming as the "what do we do."

Norfolk State doesn't have much over the Danes this year in the schedule dept....and neither did San Diego and Monmouth last year.

'Nova and/or UNH would be my guess...with 'Nova getting the nod.

I actually agree with you about Albany. And I'd love to see them get in (I have ties to the school). It's also true that Albany and Dayton each have something that last year's San Diego and Monmouth teams didn't have--a win over a playoff-bound team (Fordham). I would take Albany over NSU myself, but I just have a feeling that the committee is not going to take a mid-major team until it runs out of eligible teams from auto-bid conferences. I hope I'm wrong, but I just wouldn't bet on Albany getting in.

[gophoenix]

I'd put Albany in, myself.

[appfan2008]

If they have to take one of those mid major teams it would have to be dayton but i dont see it happening

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Dayton will be hurt by playing two Sub-DI games. SOS is too low IMO.


This goes back to your topic last week of "good losses" versus bad wins. I think that head to head just looking at the two teams, Dayton is the unaminuous selection over Albany even with 1 bad loss, 1 NAIA bad win, and 1 DII bad win. Look at any poll and you will see this verified by any voter. There is no such thing as "3 good losses" xnonox

Dayton gets picked over Norfolk and Albany if a 5th team is not selected from the CAA.

[Dane96]

If they have to take one of those mid major teams it would have to be dayton but i dont see it happening

Why would it HAVE to be Dayton? They have an OVER 100 SOS! The PFL is ranked higher (how, I do not know considering they played 18 SUB FCS games) because of two teams who are getting love for no reason whatsoever if you look at the relative SOS.

Dayton and Albany both own a win over playoff bound Fordham.
The glaring difference between the two teams is the SOS. Additionally, in conference, Albany DESTROYED the NEC; That is what a good team does if the conference is "weak." Average margin of victory is over 30 points.

[Dane96]

This goes back to your topic last week of "good losses" versus bad wins. I think that head to head just looking at the two teams, Dayton is the unaminuous selection over Albany even with 1 bad loss, 1 NAIA bad win, and 1 DII bad win. Look at any poll and you will see this verified by any voter. There is no such thing as "3 good losses" xnonox

Dayton gets picked over Norfolk and Albany if a 5th team is not selected from the CAA.

Love how this "new" poster knows EXACTLY what went on for in depth talks last week. Must have been perusing the site...huh?!

Gimme a break-- What other name do you post under.xwhistlex xnonono2x xcoffeex xrulesx xnonox

More important, what the heck are you talking about? Albany and Dayton have the same important win. Other than that, the SOS sucks for Dayton...PERIOD.

[santosballnewhampshire]

If the argument is between UNH, NOVA, and NORFOLF ST, I think that both UNH/NOVA get in over NFST. Then you have to look at UNH vs NOVA, and go to common oppenents. They have played 6 of the same teams, with the exact same results (wins over Delaware, Hofstra, and Maine, and losses to JMU, UMASS, and RICH). But if you go to the margin of win, or margin of loss, New Hampshire has won the three games by a combined 67 points, while NOVA won the same three games by a combined 17 points. Then go to the losses, and they both lost by a combined 44 points. So i guess the real question comes down to, does the committe like a win over Marshall, or a loss to Maryland more?xeyebrowx

[danefan]

If the argument is between UNH, NOVA, and NORFOLF ST, I think that both UNH/NOVA get in over NFST. Then you have to look at UNH vs NOVA, and go to common oppenents. They have played 6 of the same teams, with the exact same results (wins over Delaware, Hofstra, and Maine, and losses to JMU, UMASS, and RICH). But if you go to the margin of win, or margin of loss, New Hampshire has won the three games by a combined 67 points, while NOVA won the same three games by a combined 17 points. Then go to the losses, and they both lost by a combined 44 points. So i guess the real question comes down to, does the committe like a win over Marshall, or a loss to Maryland more?xeyebrowx

The argument won't be between Norfolk St. and UNH/Nova. Realistically the argument will be whether to take a 5th CAA team at 7-4 or not. That is the question my friend....

I'm not sure who they would take between Nova/UNH. Losing four conference games may be the nail in UNH's coffin. IMO

[Dane96]

I think it WILL be Nova.

Honestly, I think this is coming down to this: Do we want to take a CAA 5th...or in this perfect storm, do we want to experiment with Dayton or Albany to see where the non/limited scholarship teams stack up to the best.

I really think NSU is going to be a non-factor and it comes down to:

A) CAA 5; or
B) Experiment

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Why would it HAVE to be Dayton? They have an OVER 100 SOS! The PFL is ranked higher (how, I do not know considering they played 18 SUB FCS games) because of two teams who are getting love for no reason whatsoever if you look at the relative SOS.

Dayton and Albany both own a win over playoff bound Fordham.
The glaring difference between the two teams is the SOS. Additionally, in conference, Albany DESTROYED the NEC; That is what a good team does if the conference is "weak." Average margin of victory is over 30 points.


Dane here are some out of conference games for members in the PFL:

Drake - Northern Iowa, Illinois State

Morehead - Western Kentucky (1A), Robert Morris, Saint Francis

Dayton - Fordham, Robert Morris

San Diego - Northern Colorado, UC Davis

Jacksonville - Bethune-Cookman, Gardner-Webb, Wagner

All but 2 teams in the PFL conference (Davidson, Butler) play at least 2 full or partial scholarship schools in out of conference games. Here are the final records for all teams:

Drake - 6-5
Dayton - 10-1
Morehead - 7-4
Davidson - 6-4
San Diego - 9-2


The PFL is a non-scholarship league as you know, but they do a good job in competing with other scholarship programs and do have them on the schedule. This is why they are ranked higher than your league in the polls.

[Dane96]

Dude-- You don't want to go down this route. The schedules aren't even close to who the NEC played...not even in the ball park.

And Western Kentucky is not officially FBS (I-A as you call it). They are a transitional.

That being said:

Western Michigan
Towson
Montana
Hofstra
Colgate
Fordham
Stony Brook (multiple times)
Maine
Delaware
Duquense (multiple times-future conference member)
VMI
Liberty

Dayton (wouldn't normally include the PFL in this list...but I am not stupid and I think Dayton is very good-- They shouldnt be rewarded for a weak schedule, however).
Morehead (multiple- see above)

I dont include the MAAC (other than the Dukes because they are a future conference member) and the lower level of the PFL.

Notable-- They SUB FCS games existed because of A) huge rival with Central CT; and B) St. Peter's dropped the program at the last minute creating a scheduling nightmare.

THE REASON THE PFL has a higher ranking is because all year the computers and fans were on the jock of Dayton and San Diego. They lift the in-conference and OOC for your league.

You cannot seriously compare the two SOS's and be convinced that the NEC was below that of the PFL in SOS. Y'all played two playoff teams in Northern Iowa and Fordham. The NEC played a FULL FBS three playoff teams (assuming Delaware gets in) and two others who are in the conversation but likely out (Hofstra and Colgate).

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Dude-- You don't want to go down this route. The schedules aren't even close to who the NEC played...not even in the ball park.


Just giving you some insight into the OOC conference schedule of the PFL. For a non-scholly league it is not too bad.

[RationalGriz]

Last team in will be a Patriot league team, and I am guessing that Holy Cross will have the highest gpi of the bunch.

[UNHWildCats]

Last team in will be a Patriot league team, and I am guessing that Holy Cross will have the highest gpi of the bunch.whatcha drinking? wanna share xcoolx

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Last team in will be a Patriot league team, and I am guessing that Holy Cross will have the highest gpi of the bunch.


Holy Cross was in the consideration going into the Fordham game.
They lost. Any more questions? xwhistlex

[RationalGriz]

whatcha drinking? wanna share xcoolx

My arguement for: I think a 7 win team will be selected before an 8 win Alabama A&M or Norfolk St. I think a second place 7 win team will be selected before a fifth team with 7 wins from the CAA. Holy Cross will most likely be in the top 30 gpi. It is a gut feeling.

[RationalGriz]

Holy Cross was in the consideration going into the Fordham game.
They lost. Any more questions? xwhistlex

But that was before everyone else on the bubble lost and brought all the 7 win teams into the equation. I am going with a second Patriot team, and Holy Cross will have the highest GPI of the bunch.

[FCS_Advocacy5]

My arguement for: I think a 7 win team will be selected before an 8 win Alabama A&M or Norfolk St. I think a second place 7 win team will be selected before a fifth team with 7 wins from the CAA. Holy Cross will most likely be in the top 30 gpi. It is a gut feeling.

Was this before or after Lafayette (7-4)?? xeyebrowx

[Dane96]

Only place Holy Cross is going is to watch their hoop team play.

[BigApp]

Last team in will be a Patriot league team, and I am guessing that Holy Cross will have the highest gpi of the bunch.

http://www.fresh99.com/images/funnyweedpics/chipmunk-hooting-chronic.jpg

[Dane96]

THAT...is one of the funniest things I have ever seen!

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Dude-- You don't want to go down this route. The schedules aren't even close to who the NEC played...not even in the ball park.

And Western Kentucky is not officially FBS (I-A as you call it). They are a transitional.

That being said:

Western Michigan
Towson
Montana
Hofstra
Colgate
Fordham
Stony Brook (multiple times)
Maine
Delaware
Duquense (multiple times-future conference member)
VMI
Liberty

Dayton (wouldn't normally include the PFL in this list...but I am not stupid and I think Dayton is very good-- They shouldnt be rewarded for a weak schedule, however).
Morehead (multiple- see above)

I dont include the MAAC (other than the Dukes because they are a future conference member) and the lower level of the PFL.

Notable-- They SUB FCS games existed because of A) huge rival with Central CT; and B) St. Peter's dropped the program at the last minute creating a scheduling nightmare.

THE REASON THE PFL has a higher ranking is because all year the computers and fans were on the jock of Dayton and San Diego. They lift the in-conference and OOC for your league.

You cannot seriously compare the two SOS's and be convinced that the NEC was below that of the PFL in SOS. Y'all played two playoff teams in Northern Iowa and Fordham. The NEC played a FULL FBS three playoff teams (assuming Delaware gets in) and two others who are in the conversation but likely out (Hofstra and Colgate).


No reason to be on the jock of Dayton who was 4-6 last season??? And took a mid season loss to in-coference foe Morehead State??? xeyebrowx

[danefan]

Hahaha. What the hell did they put in there to get him hold on like that. That's great (allthough somewhat cruel at the same time)!

[BlueHen86]

http://www.fresh99.com/images/funnyweedpics/chipmunk-hooting-chronic.jpg

That darn Alvin. Turn my back for one second.xlolx

[Dane96]

No reason to be on the jock of Dayton who was 4-6 last season??? And took a mid season loss to in-coference foe Morehead State??? xeyebrowx

You answered your own question- Ranking a team in the Top 25 for multiple weeks in multiple polls with a mid-season loss to Morehead, with a win at San Diego (who isn't as great as we want to think they are--though very good), and with a win over Fordham...AND MULTIPLE SUB FCS GAMES, is questionable.

But...that ranking gave rise to the overall ranking of the PFL.xpeacex

[Tribe4SF]

Dayton pointing to Fordham as a quality win was laughable before today. Now that they have lost by two TDs, at home, to an awful Bucknell squad, it becomes pure insanity.

[FCS_Advocacy5]

Dayton pointing to Fordham as a quality win was laughable before today. Now that they have lost by two TDs, at home, to an awful Bucknell squad, it becomes pure insanity.


They had already clinched a spot in the playoffs and weren't playing for much today. Delaware wishes they could say the same thing. xsmiley_wix

[Tribe4SF]

They had already clinched a spot in the playoffs and weren't playing for much today. Delaware wishes they could say the same thing. xsmiley_wix

Delaware was playing at Villanova, who would be a better playoff selection than Dayton, Albany or Fordham.