New Hampshire In?

[santosballnewhampshire]

Hey, now that Georgia Southern is going down, Hofstra goes down, and Colgate goes down. Is UNH a legitment contender to get in?xeyebrowx

[Pantherpower]

Doubt it. Can't imagine letting 5 in from CAA. In my opinion an 8-3 EIU team will get in over the Wildcats.

[appstate38]

Doubt it. Can't imagine letting 5 in from CAA. In my opinion an 8-3 EIU team will get in over the Wildcats.

Have to agree... I believe your season is over!

[EmeryZach]

No way that UNH gets in

[WrenFGun]

That's surely presumptious. Colgate going down and Georgia Southern losing by a lot sure help. The way I looked at it coming in, the 8 at-larges today are UMass/Richmond, Delaware, Appalachian State and Southern Illinois (all locks) and then JMU (in with a win over Towson), Eastern Washington (in with a win over Weber State), Georgia Southern (in with a win over Colorado State) and Eastern Illiniois (questionable GPI, last in right now).

With Georgia Southern losing, Colgate would've, IMO, been the next bet for that spot. Now I think there are a number of teams in consideration here, UNH among them. If Eastern Illiniois finds a way to lose to Samford, UNH would have to feel better about their chances. UNH is the best 7-4 team out there, though it hurts with 4 others already ahead of them in the CAA. If Alabama A&M finds a way to lose, then I think it would be a tough bet to think the committee would take an 8-3 Albany or an 8-3 Norfolk State over a 7-4 UNH. We'll see how it turns out, but you have to be excited about the potential.

[WrenFGun]

Instead of looking at how UNH has ABSOLUTELY no chance, can someone tell me who is MORE qualified in light of the results of today? Look at my post above..if A&M loses (and even if they win), are they better than UNH? What about Albany and Norfolk State, the other teams being discussed?

I think they're very alive right now.

[UNHWildCats]

look at the Where we stand thread i have all the updated scores and whos eligible and not for atlarge.

[FCS Preview]

Doubt it. Can't imagine letting 5 in from CAA. In my opinion an 8-3 EIU team will get in over the Wildcats.

And who else?

Big Sky: Montana
CAA: UMass/Richmond
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Del State
OVC: EKU
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese

Top 7 At-large: SIU, App State, Delaware, JMU, EWU, Richmond/UMass, EIU.

Other Top 25 schools: YSU, GSU, Hofstra, UNH, Cal Poly, Elon, Alabama A&M (Yale, Grambing, NDSU ineligible)

Elon, Cal Poly, YSU and GSU all have Six D-I wins. That leaves Hofstra, UNH and Alabama A&M as having at least 7 D-I wins. UNH also has a win over Marshall.

[rcny46]

Hey, now that Georgia Southern is going down, Hofstra goes down, and Colgate goes down. Is UNH a legitment contender to get in?xeyebrowx

YES.IMHO,the pundits' argument that 5 teams from one conference is an impossibility is a weak one.The fact that a team with a lower GPI would make the field simply to balance things out is ridiculous.

[UMass922]

A UNH bid is certainly looking possible/plausible now, the way things are shaping up.

[WrenFGun]

Sadly, EIU returned a FG block for a TD to go up by 14. Big swing! That said, I already have them in.

What really determines UNH's fate is if Liberty, Norfolk St, Albany, Dayton or Alabama A&M is getting in over UNH. I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[igo4uni]

A UNH bid is certainly looking possible/plausible now, the way things are shaping up.

4 loss teams just don't get into the playoffs.

[UNHWildCats]

Sadly, EIU returned a FG block for a TD to go up by 14. Big swing! That said, I already have them in.

What really determines UNH's fate is if Liberty, Norfolk St, Albany, Dayton or Alabama A&M is getting in over UNH. I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Liberty wont have 7 Div I wins, Albany and Dayton are highly unlikely, Norfolk a better odds but prolly still not, Alabama A&M has a shot.

[Tod]

4 loss teams just don't get into the playoffs.

Montana State did last year. If not them, it would have likely been a 7-4 PSU team.

[WrenFGun]

Comments like that are really nonsensical. You ought to consider looking at the options before making such statements. I just want you to suggest who IS going to get in if it's NOT a team like UNH.

[WrenFGun]

Good to hear on Liberty. Presuming EIU and EWU wins, I think the last spot is being battled for between Norfolk State, Alabama A&M and UNH.

Yeesh...Norfolk State is 59th in GPI. That would be quite a reach to get in, probably. Alabama A&M is the best bet for that final spot, as they'd probably finish near 30-35. Even still, though, tough case of A&M over UNH.

[UNHWildCats]

Eastern Wash and Alabama A&M are anything but locks to win tonite too.

[siugrad99]

UNH - quit your cryin and cross your fingers and toes for the selection show tomorrow. If your team would have taken care of business on the field you wouldn't have to make this bogus thread. You lost 4 games so that gives you the ability to sit back and pray while the teams that took care of business on the field can relax until tomorrow.

[danefan]

I'd take Albany up against Norfolk State & Alabama A&M if that's what the decision comes down to..

But no way either three come in before a 7-4 UNH.

[UNHWildCats]

UNH - quit your cryin and cross your fingers and toes for the selection show tomorrow. If your team would have taken care of business on the field you wouldn't have to make this bogus thread. You lost 4 games so that gives you the ability to sit back and pray while the teams that took care of business on the field can relax until tomorrow.

we are making valid points to show UNH has a shot at the playoffs.

[WrenFGun]

SIU,

It's all we have left! We have to hope for this one! I'm concerned the committee will just give in and take a worse 3 loss team in Albany or Norfolk, but we'll see. Go Weber State! Go Samford! Go Prairie View! Go Delaware!

[siugrad99]

NEC or Pioneer league team will not be in the playoffs.

[rcny46]

UNH - quit your cryin and cross your fingers and toes for the selection show tomorrow. If your team would have taken care of business on the field you wouldn't have to make this bogus thread. You lost 4 games so that gives you the ability to sit back and pray while the teams that took care of business on the field can relax until tomorrow.

Nobody's crying from what I can see.Speculating is probably a better word.Isn't that what this is all about,or are UNH fans excluded?

[danefan]

NEC or Pioneer league team will not be in the playoffs.

That's a blanket statement with nothing to back it up.

A lot of things had to happen today, but a lot of them have happened or are happening.

[Ozzie]

I can't see how UNH can make it at 7-4. Just don't see the CAA getting 5 teams in the playoffs.

[siugrad99]

Ok then tomorrow when what I said happens you can just call me a magician. Keep dreaming my friend it is all you have to hope for.

[WrenFGun]

Yeah, I wouldn't dismiss anything at this point. Dayton's GPI isn't half bad, and Albany deserves consideration. That said, I'd agree, I'd be pretty annoyed if one of those three got in over UNH.

[UMass922]

Montana State did last year. If not them, it would have likely been a 7-4 PSU team.

Or a 7-4 UNI team.

What's unclear to me is whether or not the committee considers four-loss teams only if absolutely necessary, or if it will take a four-loss team over a three-loss team if it feels the former clearly has a better resume. It might come down to taking either UNH, Norfolk State, or Alabama A&M for that last spot, so it will be interesting to see how the committee handles that situation.

Of course, that 7-4 Montana State team was taken over mid-majors with better records (San Diego and Monmouth). So the resume can be enough to get in a four-loss team ahead of eligible teams with fewer losses. But what that still leaves uncertain is what happens if there's an eligible team with three or fewer losses from an auto-bid conference--in this case, that would be Norfolk State. So whether the committee takes UNH or NSU (if it comes down to those two for the last spot) will tell as a lot about how it feels about four-loss teams. Does the committee take all eligible three-loss teams from auto-bid conferences before taking a four-loss team? We may find out tomorrow.

[danefan]

Ok then tomorrow when what I said happens you can just call me a magician. Keep dreaming my friend it is all you have to hope for.

Nobody is saying Albany is in, but they deserve as much consideration as Alabama A&M or Norfolk State.

[rcny46]

Good to hear on Liberty. Presuming EIU and EWU wins, I think the last spot is being battled for between Norfolk State, Alabama A&M and UNH.

Yeesh...Norfolk State is 59th in GPI. That would be quite a reach to get in, probably. Alabama A&M is the best bet for that final spot, as they'd probably finish near 30-35. Even still, though, tough case of A&M over UNH.

Did I read in one of these threads earlier this week that UNH had a GPI of 19 going into today's game?

[danefan]

Good to hear on Liberty. Presuming EIU and EWU wins, I think the last spot is being battled for between Norfolk State, Alabama A&M and UNH.

Yeesh...Norfolk State is 59th in GPI. That would be quite a reach to get in, probably. Alabama A&M is the best bet for that final spot, as they'd probably finish near 30-35. Even still, though, tough case of A&M over UNH.


How do you figure that Alabama A&M will jump 10-15 spots?

UNH was at 16 before this game.

Albany at 42.
Alabama A&M at 46
Norfolk State at 59

Albany has the strongest schedule of all three according to Massey (for what it's worth)

[WrenFGun]

UNH had a GPI of 16 going into the game, and it will likely move up a few more spots, with Yale losing, GSU losing and YSU idle, they could easily move up to 13th, with North Dakota St. inelligible. Their resume is surely playoff worthy, but it will come down to whether the committee is willing to take the obviously better UNH over the flawed Norfolk State team or the SWAC rep ALA A&M, who noone knows is actually under consideration. If either EIU or EWU lose, this team has to be pretty confident in their chances.

[UMass922]

Nobody is saying Albany is in, but they deserve as much consideration as Alabama A&M or Norfolk State.

Agreed. I think what's different this year from last year regarding mid-major playoff contenders is that Dayton and Albany each have a win over a playoff team (Fordham), something that neither San Diego or Monmouth could say last year--and that neither AAMU or NSU can say this year. So I think Albany and Dayton will get a serious look, especially considering the way things have started to shape up today.

[siugrad99]

cool if they want to play with the big boys send them to UNI first round :) See what the Dome sounds like ;)

[danefan]

cool if they want to play with the big boys send them to UNI first round :) See what the Dome sounds like ;)


An we'll probably get smoked. But so will Fordham, Alabama A&M and Norfolk State. Exactly why UNH should be in. But will the Committee see it that way? Who knows.

And we play with the "big boys" every year. It would be an uphill battle like every one of our OOC games.

[UMass922]

cool if they want to play with the big boys send them to UNI first round :) See what the Dome sounds like ;)

If Albany gets in, I think it's a pretty safe bet that they're ours.

[skinny_uncle]

UNH had a GPI of 16 going into the game, and it will likely move up a few more spots, with Yale losing, GSU losing and YSU idle, they could easily move up to 13th, with North Dakota St. inelligible. Their resume is surely playoff worthy, but it will come down to whether the committee is willing to take the obviously better UNH over the flawed Norfolk State team or the SWAC rep ALA A&M, who noone knows is actually under consideration. If either EIU or EWU lose, this team has to be pretty confident in their chances.

EIU had a 24-10 lead at the half.

[siugrad99]

same result, but I must give Albany fan credit for recognizing the potential outcome :) It is not that I don't respect what the non scholarship conferences do, it is that they are not on the same level playing field and so it is really unfair to include them.

[danefan]

If Albany gets in, I think it's a pretty safe bet that they're ours.

100 mile bus ride. Without a doubt.

[danefan]

The NEC is not non-scholarshp.
Limited scholarship - 30 max (allthough the kids on rides really haven't played yet as it has been phased in over the last two years) Albany will be at 30 next year.

I agree with you about the playing field though. The NEC is not on the same playing field with the Socon, CAA, etc... But we certainly are on the same level as the Ivy league and Patriot League. They still get all the respect in the world.

[UMass922]

100 mile bus ride. Without a doubt.

And in which case Fordham probably gets sent on a plane to UNI or Montana.

[WrenFGun]

Yes. I think Albany may be the best bet for a possibility as the last team, though if the committee wants to stick by strictly 7 DIV I wins and the best team available, I'm not sure there is any doubt that UNH should be the favorite for the last spot, with the GSU loss.

[siugrad99]

IVY just thinks they get respect :) Sorry for the mix up on the scholarship :)

[UMass922]

Yes. I think Albany may be the best bet for a possibility as the last team, though if the committee wants to stick by strictly 7 DIV I wins and the best team available, I'm not sure there is any doubt that UNH should be the favorite for the last spot, with the GSU loss.

The way I see it, there were four at-large spots still up for grabs today. JMU has already claimed one, and it looks like EIU is going to claim another. EWU could claim a third. Hofstra, Colgate, and (it looks like) Georgia Southern have all knocked themselves out. I think UNH would have to be the first team in line for that last spot. The only question is whether or not the committee really has a thing against taking five teams from a conference (even though that would run counter to its stated criteria), or whether it has a thing against taking a four-loss team when there's still an eligible three-loss team from an auto-bid conference available (which would be Norfolk State). Still not sure how they'll treat an eligible SWAC team (AAMU) and the mid-majors (Dayton and Albany). But I think UNH's chances are actually starting to look very good. And especially if EWU loses later on, I'd think UNH would have to be in for sure.

[danefan]

IVY just thinks they get respect :) Sorry for the mix up on the scholarship :)

Hey, Yale was a top 10 team before today so somebody's giving them respect. They were exposed today as an overrated team.

No prob on the schollys. It takes time to get the word out. xthumbsupx

The other thing that could help Albany is if Stony Brook has a good showing at Elon.

[WrenFGun]

A game you might want to listen to, available on AM 1400 in Seattle, is the EWU/Weber State game. If EWU loses, it opens up ANOTHER spot for a potential at large.

[danefan]

CN8 apparently doesn't think UNH has any shot...;)

Didn't even put you guys on the playoff graphic.

[UNHWildCats]

CN8 apparently doesn't think UNH has any shot...;)

Didn't even put you guys on the playoff graphic.
personally i think the CN8 guys are idiots anyway... god I cant stand listening to them when UNH has games on there.

[WSBE]

CN8 guys are a joke

by the way - DaneFan is right on....as a biased fan myself, its nice to see guys who are unbiased with their assessment . good posts

a few other anecdotes as to why the selection committee might choose UNH if the last spot is subjective:

1) Ricky Santos. One of the bigger stories in FCS. C'mon, he's TV material. He looked like he could beat anyone today against a very good Maine defense. There only 2 guys in the history of D1 football that threw more TDs than he has in his career (he went ahead of McNair today)

2) UNH has become a regular in the touney. (3 years in a row)

3) UNH has had good success in very exciting games in the tourney (even when they lose- (UNI, UMASS) & big wins (Georgia Southern, Hampton, Colgate, etc)

4) They beat an undefeated Delaware team pretty good

5) One of their losses was in the same hurricane conditions (not as bad) that had URI beat UMASS

6) 2 other losses against UMASS & Richmond. 2 top 10 teams

7) lets face it - they are the next best team & have the best chance to win

[WrenFGun]

I don't think there's any argument that if the committee is going to pick THE BEST TEAM for the last playoff spot, it's clearly UNH (or potentially Villanova, if they can pull the upset over Delaware)..

[santosballnewhampshire]

I agree unh and santos def. will make any playoff game exciting no matter who they play take a look at the wins ......

Marshall
Delaware
Hofstra -the big ones

I couldnt see the commitee putting them at UNI maybe at App State

[santosballnewhampshire]

if East. wash. wins who is it between to get the last playoff spot

[danefan]

if East. wash. wins who is it between to get the last playoff spot

It will be between (all possible for sake of completeness)

Alabama A&M (9-2 assuming a win but losing now)
Norfolk State 8-3
Albany 8-3
UNH 7-4
'Nova 7-4 if they can win
Dayton 10-1

Edit...I took San Diego off because they are losing and it doesn't look good for them. They have no shot at 9-2 IMO.

[WrenFGun]

If EWU wins, it's probably between Dayton, Albany, UNH, Villanova (if they beat UD), Norfolk State and Alabama A&M.

[santosballnewhampshire]

lets say ewu loses nova wins unh has better wins then nova who do you pick

[danefan]

FYI, the CN8 guys think that one of either JMU or UD won't make the field if UD leaves.xlolx xlolx xlolx

A little research guys, come on!

[LehighFan11]

id take UNH over all those teams...too bad big wins

[dwtime]

UNH - quit your cryin and cross your fingers and toes for the selection show tomorrow. If your team would have taken care of business on the field you wouldn't have to make this bogus thread. You lost 4 games so that gives you the ability to sit back and pray while the teams that took care of business on the field can relax until tomorrow.

Please don't lump every UNH fan in that catagory, I'm a UNH fan and I agree 100% they should have taken care of business and didn't. I will certainly not be crying if they don't get in but will be pleasantly be suprised if they do.

[WrenFGun]

I think this is potentially the worst UNH team I've seen in four years. They're VERY inconsistent. With that said, I think it's undeniable, as currently constituted, to dismiss UNH as a LEGIT possibility as a last team in. As I've said all along, according to GPI, SOS, etc...UNH is one of the 16 best in the country, and have the qualifications (7 DIV I wins) to justify inclusion.

I have a strong feeling we WON'T get in (Nova's 5 conference wins may be the difference)...but I think this will be a clear estimate of how the committe values a win over an FBS team.

[UMass922]

If it comes down to either UNH or Villanova for a spot, I think it would go to UNH, though their resumes are very close. Each has beaten Delaware and lost to Richmond, James Madison, and UMass. UNH's other loss was to Northeastern, while Villanova's other loss was to FBS Maryland. UNH's OOC FCS wins are over Dartmouth and Iona; Villanova's are over Lehigh and Penn. UNH finishes 4-4 in the CAA, Villanova 5-3. But UNH has a win over FBS Marshall, and I think that's going to be the edge that gets UNH the bid.

Now, if Eastern Washington loses, we could, unbelievably, be looking at six CAA teams in the playoffs. It sounds unfathomable, but if the committee doesn't want six CAA teams it's going to have to take Norfolk State, Albany, or Dayton over either UNH or 'Nova. And for what it's worth, the Gateway has gotten four teams in the playoffs out of an eight team league, so the CAA getting in six of its twelve teams would not be unprecedented as far as the ratio goes.

I'm not saying six is going to happen or even necessarily should happen--and I'm sure that even mentioning the possibility will irk some fans of other conferences who think even five should be out of the question--but the fact is, it's possible (again, though, only if EWU loses).

[WrenFGun]

Well, I think that's ultimately what it comes down to. If the committee wants to allow statistically inferior teams in (we're assuming EIU in, and there resume isn't MUCH better than any others that we're talking about), then that is their prerogative, but that will go against the guidelines of what was said.

[Maverick]

WrenFGun,
So the committee must follow the guidelines that were said? I would venture a guess that the number of people who post here does not include someone who has actually participated on a selection committee for the playoffs. But if UNH is not selected according to the statistics you have cited, then the committee will have selected a "statistically inferior" term, which you say is then their "prerogative". Actually you don't know what information they have and in what format that information is provided do you? And their selection of the bracket is their job as assigned with much subjective information but some allowance for the "interpretation" of that information. Still I guarantee that no matter whom they select, there will be a small number who will be able to show them the errors in their results. This happens every year and will continue as long as the playoffs exist. Even funnier is that so many people spend time lobbying here as if that had any real input into the process. Talk about self-delusion. I can't wait for the announcement of the bracket to watch the real game, the one in which all of the experts who have never been in the room explain it all to each other!!

[WrenFGun]

Maverick,

I suspect you have defeated the purpose of a message board with such a statement. What's the point of doing anything on a message board if we're not going to discuss what we think? It is my impression that UNH deserves to be the last team in, based on GPI, SOS, etc...in the excerpts I've read from the rules, the committee selects the best teams. Now, if the committee has a formula that says 'Nova is better, I'd live with that. I see no formula that can demonstrate how Albany, Norfolk St. or Dayton are better, however.

[Maverick]

Statements such as mine have never defeated the purpose of the message boards. They continue unabated. But the statements such as yours about the committee selecting "statistically inferior teams" is their "prerogative" as if they would not dare go against such logic as I have put forth is the ultimate of such self-delusion in action. Thanks for the laughs!!! Please keep it up as I need the entertainment since posts like yours are almost as good as Fox News!!

[WrenFGun]

Well, can you elaborate on how "statistically inferior teams" is the incorrect terminology? In addition, is it, as always, their "prerogative" to choose who they choose for the tournament. It is, in turn, my "prerogative" to talk about their "prerogative." :)

[Maverick]

Never said that it was incorrect terminology, just a personal terminology which doesn't make it universal no matter how much bigger your "prerogative" is than mine! This not a mine's bigger than yours contest unless you have something you feel you need to share with the group. xlolx xlolx xlolx :D :D :D xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex

PS: WrenFGun, Thanks for playing along! I hope your Wildcats do get a bid and with the way things are falling at the last minute I understand your need for hope, but sometimes the contrarian in me just takes over. Good luck in the committee room! Maybe the UMass AD can help!

[WrenFGun]

Well, it was a worthwhile semantical discussion. I have a sinking feeling that Norfolk State will grab that last bid with their 23-20 win over WSSU, but we'll see. Hard to blame anyone but ourselves after that loss to Northeastern, but I'm happy to have some hope entering tonight.