Odds on National Champions

[AlphaSigMD]

Ok, first of all...EVERYBODY here has bias. Nobody in the world is unbiased, so I'm gonna go ahead and say that these odds have a bias.

However, I did my best to recognize my own bias, and to adjust accordingly to my own best guess.

Chances that the national champion will come from each conference.

Gateway 28% Two strong teams with real potential to win the NC both with very good chances to have a combined 5 home games - UNI the outlier trending the percentage upward.

CAA 26% 4 Strong Teams, but none likely to get a seed without a little help. Who's the strongest team, nobody knows, so there's no real team trending the percentage upward.

SoCon 21% This number is the one with the largest potential for change. How will GSU deal with CSU? If they win big to gain momentum, then they drag up the percentage a bit. If they lose, then the percentage goes down, and the CAA could nudge up a bit if a 7-4 team sneaks in. ASU is playing some of the best football in the country right now, so I think they balance out Wofford a bit, because to be fair, they may be cooling off a bit.

Big Sky 13% Two teams likely. EWU has been coming on as of late, but sorry...no home games for you. Montana will have to win this weekend in bozeman to get 3 home games...and they've never won away from Wa-Griz in the playoffs in any round other that the national championship game.

Southland 5% McNeese the only member, could be a shocker, but they've played a soft schedule, which will go agaist them in the later rounds. If they can win this weekend, then they will likely get a seed and two homegames. That said, I think they have the worst chances of any potential seed for holding serve on their homefield and winning those two games.

OVC 4% Maybe 2 teams, maybe one. But both will go on the road in the first round against tough opponents. Its a uphill battle to say the least.

Patriot 2% Sorry Fordham, cheap AD = no home games. Probably not gonna happen.

MEAC 1% Delaware St. may win at UD, but they can't take the kinda fire with them to win on the road 2 more times.


I welcome you all to give your own guesses, and I'm interested in what you all think about your conference's chances.

[appfan2008]

IMO the caa should be higher just due to the volume of teams... and there history with a team in the title game in 3 of the last 4 years with 2 titles...

[SunCoastBlueHen]

It pains me to say this, but I would make UMass the favorite at this juncture (they have the talent, but can they pull it all together for four games?) with UNI second, Montana third and McNeese fourth. Looks like a pretty wide-open field this year, though. It will be a fun championship tournament. xthumbsupx

[appfan2008]

UNI would be favorite... Montana second especially if they have homefield till the end... ASU third experience is very important

[Saint3333]

It pains me to say this, but I would make UMass the favorite at this juncture (they have the talent, but can they pull it all together for four games?) with UNI second, Montana third and McNeese fourth. Looks like a pretty wide-open field this year, though. It will be a fun championship tournament. xthumbsupx

UNI is the favorite hands down, all their games in the dome, and best team consistently this year. Sanders in a winner and their defense is solid.

[appfan2008]

UNI is the favorite hands down, all their games in the dome, and best team consistently this year. Sanders in a winner and their defense is solid.

I agree the biggest question right now is who is the second favorite

[SunCoastBlueHen]

UNI is the favorite hands down, all their games in the dome, and best team consistently this year. Sanders in a winner and their defense is solid.


I think this UMass team had more talent than the team that made the finals last year. UNI has obviously won all their games and are certainly a great team and A favorite...

We'll see. :)

[CID1990]

UMass was impressive against BC this year.

[ASUdrummer]

It pains me to say this, but I would make UMass the favorite at this juncture (they have the talent, but can they pull it all together for four games?) with UNI second, Montana third and McNeese fourth. Looks like a pretty wide-open field this year, though. It will be a fun championship tournament. xthumbsupx

I understand that ASU lost to a good Wofford early in the season and then to a great effort by GSU but without being to "homerish", App St is starting to show why they're back to back champions again. Our offense is starting to climax at the perfect time and the defense is improving. IMHO it would be ridiculous not to give the Mountaineers a spot as one of the Top 2 or 3 teams to win. They're just too talented...and they've been there.

[Sam Adams]

I don't like an undefeated team to run the table this season so that eliminates UNI and McNeese. My heart is with Massachusetts but my money is on App. State.

[X-Factor]

UMass was impressive against BC this year.

Appalachian State was impressive against Michigan this year xcoffeex

[Tod]

I don't like an undefeated team to run the table this season so that eliminates UNI and McNeese. My heart is with Massachusetts but my money is on App. State.

What about Montana (since you mentioned undefeated teams). xconfusedx

[Tailbone]

What about Montana (since you mentioned undefeated teams). xconfusedx


They can't be considered an undefeated team.
Their schedule is too weak.

[Fordham]

Patriot 2% Sorry Fordham, cheap AD = no home games. Probably not gonna happen.


http://images.art.com/images/-/Jim-Carrey---Dumb-Dumber--C10102378.jpeg

That's 2 whole percentage points higher than we expected when we started this season. Looks good to us. Just tell us where to go and let's strap em up.

[Saint3333]

I think this UMass team had more talent than the team that made the finals last year. UNI has obviously won all their games and are certainly a great team and A favorite...

We'll see. :)

I disagree, UMass lost their best offensive player (RB-Baylark) and best defensive player (SS-can't spell his name).

UMass had the best defense in the nation last year, this year they're about 5th, their offense isn't as good either statistically.

UNI has the best defense this year a top ten offense (closer to 5th).

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2007&div=5&site=org

[Hansel]

In order
UNI
Montana
App
Delaware
McNeese
UMass
I don't see anyone else with a shot

[umassfan]

I disagree, UMass lost their best offensive player (RB-Baylark) and best defensive player (SS-can't spell his name).

UMass had the best defense in the nation last year, this year they're about 5th, their offense isn't as good either statistically.

UNI has the best defense this year a top ten offense (closer to 5th).

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2007&div=5&site=org

I have a feeling this loss to URI woke us up which could be trouble for the rest of FCS. We handled UNH with ease and I expect the same this week vs Hofstra. We will most likely play at home vs Fordham and then I hope play vs Montana or McNeese St.

[DOME]

I'll just say that if anybody has proven they can win on the road UNI has done that. Add that UNI should have home field in the playoffs. All signs point to Chatty, I'm just pissed I wont be able to make it this year...

[mvemjsunpx]

Northern Iowa seems like the obvious favorite at this point.
Montana probably second, & whoever gets a seed (UMass/Richmond) out of the CAA third.

I don't see Appalachian State even getting to the title game. When you give up 185 rushing yards per game, you're going to get beat in the playoffs.

[AZGrizFan]

It pains me to say this, but I would make UMass the favorite at this juncture (they have the talent, but can they pull it all together for four games?) with UNI second, Montana third and McNeese fourth. Looks like a pretty wide-open field this year, though. It will be a fun championship tournament. xthumbsupx

Interesting. I don't even think UMass is the best team coming out of the CAA. xwhistlex

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

In order
UNI
Montana
App
Delaware
McNeese
UMass
I don't see anyone else with a shot

Really? You haven't been around FCS football long enough then. Crazy things can happen. It all about matchups. Richmond and a healthy JMU can make a hell of a lot of noise. JMU proved in 2004 a team can win on the road.

I think Umass is overrated and I am actually worried about them losing to Hofstra and W&M losing to Richmond, making JMU the 5th CAA team. (Hofstra w/ onyl 2 losses). Wofford, JMU, Richmond and GSU are all dark horse candidates for the NC. The PL, OVC and MEAC all seem like unrealistic teams for an NC this year. Fordham - close wins in some games against weak opponents. Same is true for EKU and Del St. Plus, tough 1st round matches will be enough of a hurdle much less 4 wins against superior OOC competition. But that's why we play the games.

My point in the end is any of the teams from the SoCon, CAA, BSC, and Gateway have legit shots at the NC - + McNesse St as well. That is, it is as wide open as ever. Can't Wait!!!!!!!!!!!!xpeacex xpeacex xpeacex

[TheValleyRaider]

Really? You haven't been around FCS football long enough then. Crazy things can happen. It all about matchups. Richmond and a healthy JMU can make a hell of a lot of noise. JMU proved in 2004 a team can win on the road.

I think Umass is overrated and I am actually worried about them losing to Hofstra and W&M losing to Richmond, making JMU the 5th CAA team. (Hofstra w/ onyl 2 losses). Wofford, JMU, Richmond and GSU are all dark horse candidates for the NC. The PL, OVC and MEAC all seem like unrealistic teams for an NC this year. Fordham - close wins in some games against weak opponents. Same is true for EKU and Del St. Plus, tough 1st round matches will be enough of a hurdle much less 4 wins against superior OOC competition. But that's why we play the games.

My point in the end is any of the teams from the SoCon, CAA, BSC, and Gateway have legit shots at the NC - + McNesse St as well. That is, it is as wide open as ever. Can't Wait!!!!!!!!!!!!xpeacex xpeacex xpeacex

Were we an unrealistic team when Colgate rode to Chattanooga in 2003? Only 1 win away from the whole thing...

Ya gotta be in it to win in xnodx xprayx

[ASUdrummer]

Northern Iowa seems like the obvious favorite at this point.
Montana probably second, & whoever gets a seed (UMass/Richmond) out of the CAA third.

I don't see Appalachian State even getting to the title game. When you give up 185 rushing yards per game, you're going to get beat in the playoffs.

Not when you have 500+ yards of offense with an almost guaranteed 30+ points...but only time will tell.

[umassfan]

Interesting. I don't even think UMass is the best team coming out of the CAA. xwhistlex


Really? Our only loss in the FCS was durring a tropical storm... and our SOS was 5th last I saw. Kinda think we are the top team in the CAA again this year... and prob will be again next season too.

[uofmman1122]

Not when you have 500+ yards of offense with an almost guaranteed 30+ points...but only time will tell.This may be true, but I would never guarantee a team 30+ points, especially since you haven't seen some of the more aggressive and tenacious defenses that you'll ultimately see in the playoffs.

Remember, theoretically, a team can go 90 yards on every drive and still be shut out. xcoffeex

[Houndawg]

UNI and ASU. Lean toward ASU if UNI and SIU are on the same side of the bracket, like the earlier post said, it's real hard to beat a good team twice.

[APPST '93]

This may be true, but I would never guarantee a team 30+ points, especially since you haven't seen some of the more aggressive and tenacious defenses that you'll ultimately see in the playoffs.

Remember, theoretically, a team can go 90 yards on every drive and still be shut out. xcoffeex

We didn't seem to have a problem last year in the playoffs. 45,38,49 and 28 against UMASS (top defense in FCS) in the championship game.

Stopping Armanti and Company is hard to do when they are healthy. I pray we stay healthy. xprayx

[mvemjsunpx]

Not when you have 500+ yards of offense with an almost guaranteed 30+ points...but only time will tell.

App. State hasn't played a quality defense all season, so those numbers are a tad inflated. I know Montana has the personnel to contain a mobile QB, & I'm sure other playoff teams do as well. The weather is now more likely to be bad, as well, which tends to cause fumble problems for teams that like to option.

Also, teams with blatant defensive weaknesses get them exploited in the playoffs.

[terrierbob]

Our best shot is that we have such a unique offense that many teams will be at a disadvantage in preparation. Collier's shoulder should be 100% as well.

[james_lawfirm]

I disagree, UMass lost their best offensive player (RB-Baylark) and best defensive player (SS-can't spell his name).


That would be: Ihedigbo. Or something close.

[james_lawfirm]

App. State hasn't played a quality defense all season, so those numbers are a tad inflated. I know Montana has the personnel to contain a mobile QB, & I'm sure other playoff teams do as well. The weather is now more likely to be bad, as well, which tends to cause fumble problems for teams that like to option.

Also, teams with blatant defensive weaknesses get them exploited in the playoffs.


Hasn't played a quality defense all season? xeekx xeekx xeekx

How 'bout these: Michigan? Wofford? GSU? NAU? Citadel?

So, you think Montana can contain Edwards? Good luck with that. Lots have tried, all have failed.

[Sam Adams]

Interesting. I don't even think UMass is the best team coming out of the CAA. xwhistlex

I agree that you can make a very good case for Richmond. But Massachusetts has been here before, they have the playoff experience and I think that gives them a slight edge over Richmond in terms of bringing home the hardware.

[PurpleandGold]

I agree that UMASS is overrated, very good, but overrated. JMU also handled UNH and we're not being talked about. UMASS had the cakewalk schedule of the CAA South and they went to overtime with Villanova and W&M, two teams that JMU handled. Sure the loss to URI was in a hurricane, but the same URI that everyone else beat was also playing in a hurricane.

UMASS must have brought something special to the BC game, and if they can bring that to every game, then yes, they're the best in the CAA and a top 3 favorite for the NC. But outside of that game, they haven't shown me a whole lot.

[ChickenMan]

Interesting. I don't even think UMass is the best team coming out of the CAA. xwhistlex


You are correct sir...

[DSUrocks07]

Ok, first of all...EVERYBODY here has bias. Nobody in the world is unbiased, so I'm gonna go ahead and say that these odds have a bias.

However, I did my best to recognize my own bias, and to adjust accordingly to my own best guess.

Chances that the national champion will come from each conference.

Patriot 2% Sorry Fordham, cheap AD = no home games. Probably not gonna happen.

MEAC 1% Delaware St. may win at UD, but they can't take the kinda fire with them to win on the road 2 more times.


I welcome you all to give your own guesses, and I'm interested in what you all think about your conference's chances.

xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx

Still no respect for the MEAC huh? xcoffeex Not surprised...at least Fordham has a better shot at a NC then us? Not sure where you make the seperation between the two of us. Hopefully I can have the last laugh when DSU wins it all this year (Hey I'm a fan, I'm supposed to think irrationally :p :p :p )

EDIT-I'll promise you this tho... being an HBCU, 'us people' gotta stick together. So a sellout at the Tub is not out of the question as most UD folks would lead you to believe. And should we get past the 1st round and were not in the same bracket as Montana or Northern Iowa, there'll definately be a lotta of red at the games xthumbsupx

[AlphaSigMD]

App. State hasn't played a quality defense all season, so those numbers are a tad inflated. I know Montana has the personnel to contain a mobile QB, & I'm sure other playoff teams do as well. The weather is now more likely to be bad, as well, which tends to cause fumble problems for teams that like to option.

Also, teams with blatant defensive weaknesses get them exploited in the playoffs.

Ok buddy, you're right, we've not played a good defense...ever.

The only team that can contain our offense is ASU...if we fumble the ball away and pick 6 our way to losses the way we did to Wofford and GSU.

So ASU puts up more points against Michigan than

1. Penn State
2. Northwestern
3. Illinois
4. Notre Dame
5. Eastern Michigan
6. Purdue
7. Minnesota
8. Michigan State

5 less points than the No.2 team in the country Oregon (even though they lost yesterday without heisman winner Dennis Dixon.)
4 points less than wisconsin.

We have proven we can score on anybody. FCS/BCS or otherwise.

Our defense might give up a buncha points...but your offense better be able to score, because with AE in the game, we are gonna get 35+

[ASUG8]

Ok buddy, you're right, we've not played a good defense...ever.

The only team that can contain our offense is ASU...if we fumble the ball away and pick 6 our way to losses the way we did to Wofford and GSU.

So ASU puts up more points against Michigan than

1. Penn State
2. Northwestern
3. Illinois
4. Notre Dame
5. Eastern Michigan
6. Purdue
7. Minnesota
8. Michigan State

5 less points than the No.2 team in the country Oregon (even though they lost yesterday without heisman winner Dennis Dixon.)
4 points less than wisconsin.

We have proven we can score on anybody. FCS/BCS or otherwise.

Our defense might give up a buncha points...but your offense better be able to score, because with AE in the game, we are gonna get 35+

Preach on, brother!

[uofmman1122]

Hasn't played a quality defense all season? xeekx xeekx xeekx

How 'bout these: Michigan? Wofford? GSU? NAU? Citadel?

So, you think Montana can contain Edwards? Good luck with that. Lots have tried, all have failed.Yeah...Michigan. Once again, the only trump card of ASU this season. I will not count a team that looked past its first round game as "high quality defense." Although, I will give you the benefit of the doubt. They have a great defense on any other day.

However, according to defensive stats and rankings (Since people love to throw these around so much to make Montana look bad) the highest ranked team in SoCon in total defense is App. St.

...at 57th in the nation.

The highest ranked scoring defense happens to be one that you listed: Wofford.

...at 53rd in the nation.

NAU doesn't even have the 3rd best defense in its conference.

And I know what you're ultimately thinking: "The SoCon offenses are so good that any defense is bad against them!"
That is also false, as there are many other offenses in the country that are better than most of the SoCon. Maybe not better than App. State, but better than the other teams.

So no, you have not faced a good defense this year. I hope you're not too surprised come playoff time. xpeacex

[Umass74]

I agree that UMASS is overrated, very good, but overrated. JMU also handled UNH and we're not being talked about. UMASS had the cakewalk schedule of the CAA South and they went to overtime with Villanova and W&M, two teams that JMU handled. Sure the loss to URI was in a hurricane, but the same URI that everyone else beat was also playing in a hurricane.

UMASS must have brought something special to the BC game, and if they can bring that to every game, then yes, they're the best in the CAA and a top 3 favorite for the NC. But outside of that game, they haven't shown me a whole lot.

UMass did not go to overtime with William & Mary.

We lead the CAA in nearly every defensive category. Liam Coen has more TD passes than Flacco or Santos. Matt Lawrence has a higher yard-per-carry than Cuff.

Against UNH we had eight sacks, thirteen TFL and held the Wildcats to 40 yards rushing and 7 points. Has any team recently done that to Santos and Co?

Run down UMass all you want, but we're 21-2 against FCS teams in the last two years, Anyone who draws us in the playoffs is in for a difficult game.

[james_lawfirm]

Yeah...Michigan. Once again, the only trump card of ASU this season. I will not count a team that looked past its first round game as "high quality defense." Although, I will give you the benefit of the doubt. They have a great defense on any other day.

However, according to defensive stats and rankings (Since people love to throw these around so much to make Montana look bad) the highest ranked team in SoCon in total defense is App. St.

...at 57th in the nation.

The highest ranked scoring defense happens to be one that you listed: Wofford.

...at 53rd in the nation.

NAU doesn't even have the 3rd best defense in its conference.

And I know what you're ultimately thinking: "The SoCon offenses are so good that any defense is bad against them!"
That is also false, as there are many other offenses in the country that are better than most of the SoCon. Maybe not better than App. State, but better than the other teams.

So no, you have not faced a good defense this year. I hope you're not too surprised come playoff time. xpeacex


OK. The debaters have done drawn the lines in the sand. Now, can we please play some football?

[ab4app]

now you have convinced me that we havent played any good defenses this yearxlolx , oh well , we surrender our season cause we have no shot at beating a team with a real defensexeekx , see yall in 08xthumbsupx

[CamelCityAppFan]

Championship Subdivision (FCS) National Team Report
Total Offense

Year: 2007 Thru: 11/10/07 Minimum Pct. of Games Played
Rank Name Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses Ties
1 Appalachian St. 10 747 4929 6.60 56 492.90 8 2 0
2 Cal Poly 10 708 4914 6.94 51 491.40 6 4 0
3 Delaware 10 747 4868 6.52 52 486.80 8 2 0
4 San Diego 10 648 4843 7.47 60 484.30 9 1 0
5 Holy Cross 10 769 4602 5.98 48 460.20 6 4 0
6 Eastern Wash. 10 734 4590 6.25 42 459.00 7 3 0
7 Southern Ill. 10 718 4554 6.34 54 455.40 9 1 0
8 Ga. Southern 10 733 4510 6.15 46 451.00 7 3 0
8 Dayton 11 826 4961 6.01 58 451.00 10 1 0
10 Northern Iowa 10 713 4452 6.24 45 445.20 10 0 0
11 Wofford 11 811 4866 6.00 56 442.36 8 3 0
12 McNeese St. 10 680 4409 6.48 50 440.90 10 0 0
13 Tenn.-Martin 10 690 4383 6.35 42 438.30 3 7 0
14 Citadel 10 756 4304 5.69 47 430.40 6 4 0
15 Brown 9 688 3871 5.63 36 430.11 4 5 0
16 Elon 10 777 4279 5.51 46 427.90 6 4 0
17 Liberty 10 615 4257 6.92 57 425.70 7 3 0
18 Sam Houston St. 10 706 4247 6.02 32 424.70 6 4 0
19 Murray St. 10 806 4244 5.27 36 424.40 2 8 0
20 Portland St. 10 751 4228 5.63 39 422.80 2 8 0
21 Duquesne 9 618 3758 6.08 31 417.56 6 3 0
22 Montana 10 741 4163 5.62 39 416.30 10 0 0
22 VMI 10 724 4163 5.75 34 416.30 2 8 0
24 Richmond 10 674 4162 6.18 47 416.20 8 2 0
25 Texas St. 10 751 4156 5.53 36 415.60 4 6 0
26 Northern Ariz. 11 834 4571 5.48 38 415.55 6 5 0
27 James Madison 10 665 4153 6.25 45 415.30 7 3 0
28 Missouri St. 11 767 4557 5.94 54 414.27 6 5 0
29 Davidson 10 725 4119 5.68 41 411.90 6 4 0
30 Hofstra 10 716 4105 5.73 36 410.50 7 3 0
31 New Hampshire 10 663 4060 6.12 49 406.00 6 4 0
32 Samford 10 753 4057 5.39 32 405.70 4 6 0
33 Harvard 9 696 3643 5.23 30 404.78 7 2 0
34 Eastern Ill. 10 703 4038 5.74 42 403.80 7 3 0
35 Yale 9 660 3629 5.50 35 403.22 9 0 0
36 Illinois St. 11 791 4431 5.60 44 402.82 4 7 0
37 Alabama A&M 10 675 4016 5.95 40 401.60 8 2 0
38 Weber St. 10 701 3996 5.70 37 399.60 5 5 0
38 Eastern Ky. 10 684 3996 5.84 41 399.60 8 2 0
40 Central Conn. St. 10 704 3985 5.66 41 398.50 6 4 0
41 Cornell 9 748 3584 4.79 33 398.22 5 4 0
42 Fordham 10 738 3961 5.37 39 396.10 8 2 0
43 Furman 10 719 3948 5.49 37 394.80 5 5 0
44 Tennessee St. 10 695 3943 5.67 39 394.30 5 5 0
45 William & Mary 10 700 3929 5.61 39 392.90 4 6 0
46 Stony Brook 10 731 3896 5.33 33 389.60 6 4 0
47 Southern U. 10 730 3881 5.32 40 388.10 7 3 0
48 Colgate 10 726 3867 5.33 34 386.70 7 3 0
49 UC Davis 10 700 3866 5.52 35 386.60 4 6 0
50 Iona 10 657 3830 5.83 40 383.00 7 3 0
51 Valparaiso 11 787 4201 5.34 33 381.91 5 6 0
52 Idaho St. 10 716 3810 5.32 30 381.00 3 7 0
53 Western Ill. 11 764 4171 5.46 31 379.18 6 5 0
54 South Carolina St. 10 689 3762 5.46 30 376.20 6 4 0
55 Princeton 9 651 3380 5.19 23 375.56 3 6 0
56 Charleston So. 10 711 3714 5.22 33 371.40 5 5 0
57 Howard 10 718 3692 5.14 33 369.20 4 6 0
58 Sacred Heart 11 744 4056 5.45 41 368.73 3 8 0
59 Monmouth 9 635 3305 5.20 29 367.22 3 6 0
60 Youngstown St. 11 742 4035 5.44 37 366.82 7 4 0
61 Albany (N.Y.) 10 739 3643 4.93 32 364.30 7 3 0
62 Lafayette 10 730 3636 4.98 34 363.60 6 4 0
63 Grambling 10 702 3627 5.17 36 362.70 8 2 0
64 Coastal Caro. 10 689 3617 5.25 35 361.70 4 6 0
65 Dartmouth 9 610 3250 5.33 35 361.11 3 6 0
66 Gardner-Webb 10 680 3604 5.30 30 360.40 5 5 0
67 Tennessee Tech 10 655 3602 5.50 39 360.20 4 6 0
68 Massachusetts 10 650 3596 5.53 38 359.60 8 2 0
69 Western Caro. 10 691 3580 5.18 34 358.00 1 9 0
70 Jackson St. 10 683 3573 5.23 32 357.30 6 4 0
71 Northwestern St. 10 706 3569 5.06 27 356.90 3 7 0
72 Morgan St. 11 769 3919 5.10 31 356.27 5 6 0
73 Nicholls St. 10 620 3556 5.74 37 355.60 6 4 0
74 Jacksonville 10 704 3529 5.01 26 352.90 3 7 0
75 Montana St. 10 704 3528 5.01 32 352.80 6 4 0
76 Lehigh 10 700 3512 5.02 29 351.20 5 5 0
77 Morehead St. 10 684 3507 5.13 35 350.70 7 3 0
78 Hampton 10 724 3505 4.84 40 350.50 6 4 0
79 Drake 11 731 3822 5.23 38 347.45 6 5 0
80 Jacksonville St. 10 707 3470 4.91 32 347.00 6 4 0
81 Rhode Island 10 757 3455 4.56 24 345.50 2 8 0
82 Stephen F. Austin 10 699 3444 4.93 19 344.40 0 10 0
83 Southeastern La. 10 624 3347 5.36 31 334.70 2 8 0
84 Pennsylvania 9 681 2985 4.38 24 331.67 3 6 0
85 Villanova 10 664 3293 4.96 35 329.30 6 4 0
86 Sacramento St. 10 694 3285 4.73 19 328.50 2 8 0
87 Southern Utah 10 701 3283 4.68 21 328.30 0 10 0
88 Southeast Mo. St. 10 681 3266 4.80 22 326.60 2 8 0
89 Marist 11 782 3587 4.59 25 326.09 3 8 0
90 Columbia 9 585 2932 5.01 21 325.78 1 8 0
91 Florida A&M 10 668 3229 4.83 23 322.90 3 7 0
92 Northeastern 10 657 3221 4.90 26 322.10 3 7 0
93 Austin Peay 10 652 3215 4.93 34 321.50 6 4 0
94 Chattanooga 10 650 3181 4.89 29 318.10 2 8 0
95 Wagner 10 640 3158 4.93 24 315.80 6 4 0
96 Norfolk St. 10 665 3144 4.73 29 314.40 7 3 0
97 Maine 10 655 3068 4.68 20 306.80 4 6 0
98 Bethune-Cookman 10 617 3034 4.92 28 303.40 4 6 0
99 Towson 10 660 2995 4.54 18 299.50 3 7 0
100 St. Francis (Pa.) 9 585 2641 4.51 20 293.44 2 7 0
101 Prairie View 9 572 2638 4.61 24 293.11 6 3 0
102 Georgetown 11 713 3186 4.47 21 289.64 1 10 0
103 Butler 11 751 3179 4.23 30 289.00 4 7 0
104 Alabama St. 10 652 2864 4.39 22 286.40 5 5 0
105 Northern Colo. 11 729 3132 4.30 15 284.73 1 10 0
106 Delaware St. 10 624 2842 4.55 24 284.20 9 1 0
107 N.C. A&T 10 606 2797 4.62 20 279.70 0 10 0
108 Texas Southern 9 643 2517 3.91 18 279.67 0 9 0
109 Bucknell 10 577 2740 4.75 25 274.00 2 8 0
110 Robert Morris 10 621 2680 4.32 22 268.00 4 6 0
111 Ark.-Pine Bluff 10 628 2657 4.23 18 265.70 3 7 0
112 Indiana St. 11 667 2889 4.33 16 262.64 0 11 0
113 Alcorn St. 9 571 2332 4.08 15 259.11 2 7 0
114 Mississippi Val. 10 671 2577 3.84 20 257.70 2 8 0
115 Savannah St. 9 533 1714 3.22 11 190.44 1 8 0
116 La Salle 9 538 1426 2.65 8 158.44 0 9 0

[DSUrocks07]

Championship Subdivision (FCS) National Team Report
Total Offense

Year: 2007 Thru: 11/10/07 Minimum Pct. of Games Played
Rank Name Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses Ties
1 Appalachian St. 10 747 4929 6.60 56 492.90 8 2 0
2 Cal Poly 10 708 4914 6.94 51 491.40 6 4 0
3 Delaware 10 747 4868 6.52 52 486.80 8 2 0
4 San Diego 10 648 4843 7.47 60 484.30 9 1 0
5 Holy Cross 10 769 4602 5.98 48 460.20 6 4 0
6 Eastern Wash. 10 734 4590 6.25 42 459.00 7 3 0
7 Southern Ill. 10 718 4554 6.34 54 455.40 9 1 0
8 Ga. Southern 10 733 4510 6.15 46 451.00 7 3 0
8 Dayton 11 826 4961 6.01 58 451.00 10 1 0
10 Northern Iowa 10 713 4452 6.24 45 445.20 10 0 0
11 Wofford 11 811 4866 6.00 56 442.36 8 3 0
12 McNeese St. 10 680 4409 6.48 50 440.90 10 0 0
13 Tenn.-Martin 10 690 4383 6.35 42 438.30 3 7 0
14 Citadel 10 756 4304 5.69 47 430.40 6 4 0
15 Brown 9 688 3871 5.63 36 430.11 4 5 0
16 Elon 10 777 4279 5.51 46 427.90 6 4 0
17 Liberty 10 615 4257 6.92 57 425.70 7 3 0
18 Sam Houston St. 10 706 4247 6.02 32 424.70 6 4 0
19 Murray St. 10 806 4244 5.27 36 424.40 2 8 0
20 Portland St. 10 751 4228 5.63 39 422.80 2 8 0
21 Duquesne 9 618 3758 6.08 31 417.56 6 3 0
22 Montana 10 741 4163 5.62 39 416.30 10 0 0
22 VMI 10 724 4163 5.75 34 416.30 2 8 0
24 Richmond 10 674 4162 6.18 47 416.20 8 2 0
25 Texas St. 10 751 4156 5.53 36 415.60 4 6 0
26 Northern Ariz. 11 834 4571 5.48 38 415.55 6 5 0
27 James Madison 10 665 4153 6.25 45 415.30 7 3 0
28 Missouri St. 11 767 4557 5.94 54 414.27 6 5 0
29 Davidson 10 725 4119 5.68 41 411.90 6 4 0
30 Hofstra 10 716 4105 5.73 36 410.50 7 3 0
31 New Hampshire 10 663 4060 6.12 49 406.00 6 4 0
32 Samford 10 753 4057 5.39 32 405.70 4 6 0
33 Harvard 9 696 3643 5.23 30 404.78 7 2 0
34 Eastern Ill. 10 703 4038 5.74 42 403.80 7 3 0
35 Yale 9 660 3629 5.50 35 403.22 9 0 0
36 Illinois St. 11 791 4431 5.60 44 402.82 4 7 0
37 Alabama A&M 10 675 4016 5.95 40 401.60 8 2 0
38 Weber St. 10 701 3996 5.70 37 399.60 5 5 0
38 Eastern Ky. 10 684 3996 5.84 41 399.60 8 2 0
40 Central Conn. St. 10 704 3985 5.66 41 398.50 6 4 0
41 Cornell 9 748 3584 4.79 33 398.22 5 4 0
42 Fordham 10 738 3961 5.37 39 396.10 8 2 0
43 Furman 10 719 3948 5.49 37 394.80 5 5 0
44 Tennessee St. 10 695 3943 5.67 39 394.30 5 5 0
45 William & Mary 10 700 3929 5.61 39 392.90 4 6 0
46 Stony Brook 10 731 3896 5.33 33 389.60 6 4 0
47 Southern U. 10 730 3881 5.32 40 388.10 7 3 0
48 Colgate 10 726 3867 5.33 34 386.70 7 3 0
49 UC Davis 10 700 3866 5.52 35 386.60 4 6 0
50 Iona 10 657 3830 5.83 40 383.00 7 3 0
51 Valparaiso 11 787 4201 5.34 33 381.91 5 6 0
52 Idaho St. 10 716 3810 5.32 30 381.00 3 7 0
53 Western Ill. 11 764 4171 5.46 31 379.18 6 5 0
54 South Carolina St. 10 689 3762 5.46 30 376.20 6 4 0
55 Princeton 9 651 3380 5.19 23 375.56 3 6 0
56 Charleston So. 10 711 3714 5.22 33 371.40 5 5 0
57 Howard 10 718 3692 5.14 33 369.20 4 6 0
58 Sacred Heart 11 744 4056 5.45 41 368.73 3 8 0
59 Monmouth 9 635 3305 5.20 29 367.22 3 6 0
60 Youngstown St. 11 742 4035 5.44 37 366.82 7 4 0
61 Albany (N.Y.) 10 739 3643 4.93 32 364.30 7 3 0
62 Lafayette 10 730 3636 4.98 34 363.60 6 4 0
63 Grambling 10 702 3627 5.17 36 362.70 8 2 0
64 Coastal Caro. 10 689 3617 5.25 35 361.70 4 6 0
65 Dartmouth 9 610 3250 5.33 35 361.11 3 6 0
66 Gardner-Webb 10 680 3604 5.30 30 360.40 5 5 0
67 Tennessee Tech 10 655 3602 5.50 39 360.20 4 6 0
68 Massachusetts 10 650 3596 5.53 38 359.60 8 2 0
69 Western Caro. 10 691 3580 5.18 34 358.00 1 9 0
70 Jackson St. 10 683 3573 5.23 32 357.30 6 4 0
71 Northwestern St. 10 706 3569 5.06 27 356.90 3 7 0
72 Morgan St. 11 769 3919 5.10 31 356.27 5 6 0
73 Nicholls St. 10 620 3556 5.74 37 355.60 6 4 0
74 Jacksonville 10 704 3529 5.01 26 352.90 3 7 0
75 Montana St. 10 704 3528 5.01 32 352.80 6 4 0
76 Lehigh 10 700 3512 5.02 29 351.20 5 5 0
77 Morehead St. 10 684 3507 5.13 35 350.70 7 3 0
78 Hampton 10 724 3505 4.84 40 350.50 6 4 0
79 Drake 11 731 3822 5.23 38 347.45 6 5 0
80 Jacksonville St. 10 707 3470 4.91 32 347.00 6 4 0
81 Rhode Island 10 757 3455 4.56 24 345.50 2 8 0
82 Stephen F. Austin 10 699 3444 4.93 19 344.40 0 10 0
83 Southeastern La. 10 624 3347 5.36 31 334.70 2 8 0
84 Pennsylvania 9 681 2985 4.38 24 331.67 3 6 0
85 Villanova 10 664 3293 4.96 35 329.30 6 4 0
86 Sacramento St. 10 694 3285 4.73 19 328.50 2 8 0
87 Southern Utah 10 701 3283 4.68 21 328.30 0 10 0
88 Southeast Mo. St. 10 681 3266 4.80 22 326.60 2 8 0
89 Marist 11 782 3587 4.59 25 326.09 3 8 0
90 Columbia 9 585 2932 5.01 21 325.78 1 8 0
91 Florida A&M 10 668 3229 4.83 23 322.90 3 7 0
92 Northeastern 10 657 3221 4.90 26 322.10 3 7 0
93 Austin Peay 10 652 3215 4.93 34 321.50 6 4 0
94 Chattanooga 10 650 3181 4.89 29 318.10 2 8 0
95 Wagner 10 640 3158 4.93 24 315.80 6 4 0
96 Norfolk St. 10 665 3144 4.73 29 314.40 7 3 0
97 Maine 10 655 3068 4.68 20 306.80 4 6 0
98 Bethune-Cookman 10 617 3034 4.92 28 303.40 4 6 0
99 Towson 10 660 2995 4.54 18 299.50 3 7 0
100 St. Francis (Pa.) 9 585 2641 4.51 20 293.44 2 7 0
101 Prairie View 9 572 2638 4.61 24 293.11 6 3 0
102 Georgetown 11 713 3186 4.47 21 289.64 1 10 0
103 Butler 11 751 3179 4.23 30 289.00 4 7 0
104 Alabama St. 10 652 2864 4.39 22 286.40 5 5 0
105 Northern Colo. 11 729 3132 4.30 15 284.73 1 10 0
106 Delaware St. 10 624 2842 4.55 24 284.20 9 1 0 xthumbsupx
107 N.C. A&T 10 606 2797 4.62 20 279.70 0 10 0
108 Texas Southern 9 643 2517 3.91 18 279.67 0 9 0
109 Bucknell 10 577 2740 4.75 25 274.00 2 8 0
110 Robert Morris 10 621 2680 4.32 22 268.00 4 6 0
111 Ark.-Pine Bluff 10 628 2657 4.23 18 265.70 3 7 0
112 Indiana St. 11 667 2889 4.33 16 262.64 0 11 0
113 Alcorn St. 9 571 2332 4.08 15 259.11 2 7 0
114 Mississippi Val. 10 671 2577 3.84 20 257.70 2 8 0
115 Savannah St. 9 533 1714 3.22 11 190.44 1 8 0
116 La Salle 9 538 1426 2.65 8 158.44 0 9 0

xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix

[ASUG8]

Yeah...Michigan. Once again, the only trump card of ASU this season. I will not count a team that looked past its first round game as "high quality defense." Although, I will give you the benefit of the doubt. They have a great defense on any other day.

However, according to defensive stats and rankings (Since people love to throw these around so much to make Montana look bad) the highest ranked team in SoCon in total defense is App. St.

...at 57th in the nation.

The highest ranked scoring defense happens to be one that you listed: Wofford.

...at 53rd in the nation.

NAU doesn't even have the 3rd best defense in its conference.

And I know what you're ultimately thinking: "The SoCon offenses are so good that any defense is bad against them!"
That is also false, as there are many other offenses in the country that are better than most of the SoCon. Maybe not better than App. State, but better than the other teams.

So no, you have not faced a good defense this year. I hope you're not too surprised come playoff time. xpeacex


See post 42 - with App, GSU, WU, Elon, and the Citadel all in the TOP 16 offenses in the country, you can bet on a shootout with any one of us you get. Either NO ONE plays defense in the SoCon, or we have overpowering offenses. The next few weeks will show everyboy's cards.xthumbsupx

[Black Saturday]

UMass was impressive against BC this year.

And BC has shown what they are as the season unfolds.

[Black Saturday]

Appalachian State was impressive against Michigan this year xcoffeex

And APP was well as it has been the whole year. Played UM -1 on the offensive line and -1 db who was withheld for disciplinary reasons. Haven't been as healthy since.

[sharkeycox]

Ok, first of all...EVERYBODY here has bias. Nobody in the world is unbiased, so I'm gonna go ahead and say that these odds have a bias.

However, I did my best to recognize my own bias, and to adjust accordingly to my own best guess.

Chances that the national champion will come from each conference.

Gateway 28% Two strong teams with real potential to win the NC both with very good chances to have a combined 5 home games - UNI the outlier trending the percentage upward.

CAA 26% 4 Strong Teams, but none likely to get a seed without a little help. Who's the strongest team, nobody knows, so there's no real team trending the percentage upward.

SoCon 21% This number is the one with the largest potential for change. How will GSU deal with CSU? If they win big to gain momentum, then they drag up the percentage a bit. If they lose, then the percentage goes down, and the CAA could nudge up a bit if a 7-4 team sneaks in. ASU is playing some of the best football in the country right now, so I think they balance out Wofford a bit, because to be fair, they may be cooling off a bit.

Big Sky 13% Two teams likely. EWU has been coming on as of late, but sorry...no home games for you. Montana will have to win this weekend in bozeman to get 3 home games...and they've never won away from Wa-Griz in the playoffs in any round other that the national championship game.

Southland 5% McNeese the only member, could be a shocker, but they've played a soft schedule, which will go agaist them in the later rounds. If they can win this weekend, then they will likely get a seed and two homegames. That said, I think they have the worst chances of any potential seed for holding serve on their homefield and winning those two games.

OVC 4% Maybe 2 teams, maybe one. But both will go on the road in the first round against tough opponents. Its a uphill battle to say the least.

Patriot 2% Sorry Fordham, cheap AD = no home games. Probably not gonna happen.

MEAC 1% Delaware St. may win at UD, but they can't take the kinda fire with them to win on the road 2 more times.


I welcome you all to give your own guesses, and I'm interested in what you all think about your conference's chances.

The winner will be either UNI, Montana or McNeese. Plain and simple.xsmiley_wix

[ab4app]

sorry, not that plain and simple, someone else just might have something to say about that

[james_lawfirm]

The winner will be either UNI, Montana or McNeese. Plain and simple.xsmiley_wix

Maybe. Maybe not.

I reckon there are about 13 other teams who will either 1) disagree strongly with you or 2) agree with you and have no business playing after Thanksgiving. That's why we have playoffs.

[PurpleandGold]

UMass did not go to overtime with William & Mary.

...

Run down UMass all you want, but we're 21-2 against FCS teams in the last two years, Anyone who draws us in the playoffs is in for a difficult game.

Sorry, you're right, but you were tied with 4 minutes left.

I'm not running down UMass. I said they were overrated, but still very good, and not the best team coming out of the CAA. Saying a team is overrated isn't saying that they suck. UMass is a very good team. Period. As good as advertised? Maybe, but I submit that they are not.

[mlbowl]

UMass was impressive against BC this year.


So was Florida Statexrolleyesx

[umassfan]

So was Florida Statexrolleyesx

We still held Matt Ryan to his worst game of the season. Not to mention that our run D is pretty good as well. And when our O Coord doesnt mess up we can hang points on anyone.

[Griz0383]

This is going to be a fun ride! xrotatehx I can't remember a time when the field was this talanted! Every team that has a seat is awsome and I don't see the home field being all that important, just hard nose football with the team that makes the least mistakes winning.xthumbsupx

[HensRock]

In order
UNI
Montana
App
Delaware
McNeese
UMass
I don't see anyone else with a shot

DO NOT underestimate Richmond.

[ASUdrummer]

Just for kicks...If App had found a way to win against Wofford and GSU and were coming into this at their potential with an 11-0 record would the field still be considered so evenly talented??? I agree that it's a great field that's making me more anxious than ever about the playoffs. Just playin' around with an idea.

[GreatAppSt]

You mean to tell me everyone doesn't have a 1 in 16 chance?:p

[Umass74]

Sorry, you're right, but you were tied with 4 minutes left.

I'm not running down UMass. I said they were overrated, but still very good, and not the best team coming out of the CAA. Saying a team is overrated isn't saying that they suck. UMass is a very good team. Period. As good as advertised? Maybe, but I submit that they are not.

No, still not right. The game was never tied. W&M was up 24-13 over us half way through the third quarter.

UMass then out scored the Tribe 35-10 to win by 14 points. I was there.

As for being overrated, we shall see shortly.

[Saluki_man]

In order
UNI
Montana
App
Delaware
McNeese
UMass
I don't see anyone else with a shot

You are greatly under estimating SIU.

[appstate38]

App. State hasn't played a quality defense all season, so those numbers are a tad inflated. I know Montana has the personnel to contain a mobile QB, & I'm sure other playoff teams do as well. The weather is now more likely to be bad, as well, which tends to cause fumble problems for teams that like to option.

Also, teams with blatant defensive weaknesses get them exploited in the playoffs.

Wow that is a mouthful!
Against this offense, there aren't too many defenses that look like they have a lot of quality

Numbers tend to get inflated when you move it up and down the field

What QB have you seen that can compare the what Edwards brings to the table? Contain him... Wishful thinking.

Clown post of the week!:p Praying for bad weather to help you stop the ASU offense. What do we play in South Florida where the weather is always nice! xeyebrowx

[AlphaSigMD]

Yeah...Michigan. Once again, the only trump card of ASU this season. I will not count a team that looked past its first round game as "high quality defense." Although, I will give you the benefit of the doubt. They have a great defense on any other day.

However, according to defensive stats and rankings (Since people love to throw these around so much to make Montana look bad) the highest ranked team in SoCon in total defense is App. St.

...at 57th in the nation.

The highest ranked scoring defense happens to be one that you listed: Wofford.

...at 53rd in the nation.

NAU doesn't even have the 3rd best defense in its conference.

And I know what you're ultimately thinking: "The SoCon offenses are so good that any defense is bad against them!"
That is also false, as there are many other offenses in the country that are better than most of the SoCon. Maybe not better than App. State, but better than the other teams.

So no, you have not faced a good defense this year. I hope you're not too surprised come playoff time. xpeacex

Lets take a look at the ASU and Montana opponents on the and see why ASU might give up 30 more yards of offense per game than montana.

Gee I wonder what this will look like?



Year: 2007 Thru: 11/10/07 Minimum Pct. of Games Played
Rank Name Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses Ties
1 Appalachian St. 10 747 4929 6.60 56 492.90 8 2 0 (No. 1 deserves a highlight too)
2 Cal Poly 10 708 4914 6.94 51 491.40 6 4 0
3 Delaware 10 747 4868 6.52 52 486.80 8 2 0
4 San Diego 10 648 4843 7.47 60 484.30 9 1 0
5 Holy Cross 10 769 4602 5.98 48 460.20 6 4 0
6 Eastern Wash. 10 734 4590 6.25 42 459.00 7 3 0
7 Southern Ill. 10 718 4554 6.34 54 455.40 9 1 0
8 Ga. Southern 10 733 4510 6.15 46 451.00 7 3 0
8 Dayton 11 826 4961 6.01 58 451.00 10 1 0
10 Northern Iowa 10 713 4452 6.24 45 445.20 10 0 0
11 Wofford 11 811 4866 6.00 56 442.36 8 3 0
12 McNeese St. 10 680 4409 6.48 50 440.90 10 0 0
13 Tenn.-Martin 10 690 4383 6.35 42 438.30 3 7 0
14 Citadel 10 756 4304 5.69 47 430.40 6 4 0
15 Brown 9 688 3871 5.63 36 430.11 4 5 0
16 Elon 10 777 4279 5.51 46 427.90 6 4 0
17 Liberty 10 615 4257 6.92 57 425.70 7 3 0
18 Sam Houston St. 10 706 4247 6.02 32 424.70 6 4 0
19 Murray St. 10 806 4244 5.27 36 424.40 2 8 0
20 Portland St. 10 751 4228 5.63 39 422.80 2 8 0
21 Duquesne 9 618 3758 6.08 31 417.56 6 3 0
22 Montana 10 741 4163 5.62 39 416.30 10 0 0
22 VMI 10 724 4163 5.75 34 416.30 2 8 0
24 Richmond 10 674 4162 6.18 47 416.20 8 2 0
25 Texas St. 10 751 4156 5.53 36 415.60 4 6 0
26 Northern Ariz. 11 834 4571 5.48 38 415.55 6 5 0
27 James Madison 10 665 4153 6.25 45 415.30 7 3 0
MICHIGAN 414.20 YPG
28 Missouri St. 11 767 4557 5.94 54 414.27 6 5 0
29 Davidson 10 725 4119 5.68 41 411.90 6 4 0
30 Hofstra 10 716 4105 5.73 36 410.50 7 3 0
31 New Hampshire 10 663 4060 6.12 49 406.00 6 4 0
32 Samford 10 753 4057 5.39 32 405.70 4 6 0
33 Harvard 9 696 3643 5.23 30 404.78 7 2 0
34 Eastern Ill. 10 703 4038 5.74 42 403.80 7 3 0
35 Yale 9 660 3629 5.50 35 403.22 9 0 0
36 Illinois St. 11 791 4431 5.60 44 402.82 4 7 0
37 Alabama A&M 10 675 4016 5.95 40 401.60 8 2 0
38 Weber St. 10 701 3996 5.70 37 399.60 5 5 0
38 Eastern Ky. 10 684 3996 5.84 41 399.60 8 2 0
40 Central Conn. St. 10 704 3985 5.66 41 398.50 6 4 0
41 Cornell 9 748 3584 4.79 33 398.22 5 4 0
42 Fordham 10 738 3961 5.37 39 396.10 8 2 0
43 Furman 10 719 3948 5.49 37 394.80 5 5 0
44 Tennessee St. 10 695 3943 5.67 39 394.30 5 5 0
45 William & Mary 10 700 3929 5.61 39 392.90 4 6 0
46 Stony Brook 10 731 3896 5.33 33 389.60 6 4 0
47 Southern U. 10 730 3881 5.32 40 388.10 7 3 0
48 Colgate 10 726 3867 5.33 34 386.70 7 3 0
49 UC Davis 10 700 3866 5.52 35 386.60 4 6 0
50 Iona 10 657 3830 5.83 40 383.00 7 3 0
51 Valparaiso 11 787 4201 5.34 33 381.91 5 6 0
52 Idaho St. 10 716 3810 5.32 30 381.00 3 7 0
53 Western Ill. 11 764 4171 5.46 31 379.18 6 5 0
54 South Carolina St. 10 689 3762 5.46 30 376.20 6 4 0
55 Princeton 9 651 3380 5.19 23 375.56 3 6 0
56 Charleston So. 10 711 3714 5.22 33 371.40 5 5 0
57 Howard 10 718 3692 5.14 33 369.20 4 6 0
58 Sacred Heart 11 744 4056 5.45 41 368.73 3 8 0
59 Monmouth 9 635 3305 5.20 29 367.22 3 6 0
60 Youngstown St. 11 742 4035 5.44 37 366.82 7 4 0
61 Albany (N.Y.) 10 739 3643 4.93 32 364.30 7 3 0 62 Lafayette 10 730 3636 4.98 34 363.60 6 4 0
63 Grambling 10 702 3627 5.17 36 362.70 8 2 0
64 Coastal Caro. 10 689 3617 5.25 35 361.70 4 6 0
65 Dartmouth 9 610 3250 5.33 35 361.11 3 6 0
66 Gardner-Webb 10 680 3604 5.30 30 360.40 5 5 0
67 Tennessee Tech 10 655 3602 5.50 39 360.20 4 6 0
68 Massachusetts 10 650 3596 5.53 38 359.60 8 2 0
69 Western Caro. 10 691 3580 5.18 34 358.00 1 9 0
70 Jackson St. 10 683 3573 5.23 32 357.30 6 4 0
71 Northwestern St. 10 706 3569 5.06 27 356.90 3 7 0
72 Morgan St. 11 769 3919 5.10 31 356.27 5 6 0
73 Nicholls St. 10 620 3556 5.74 37 355.60 6 4 0
74 Jacksonville 10 704 3529 5.01 26 352.90 3 7 0
75 Montana St. 10 704 3528 5.01 32 352.80 6 4 0
76 Lehigh 10 700 3512 5.02 29 351.20 5 5 0
77 Morehead St. 10 684 3507 5.13 35 350.70 7 3 0
78 Hampton 10 724 3505 4.84 40 350.50 6 4 0
79 Drake 11 731 3822 5.23 38 347.45 6 5 0
80 Jacksonville St. 10 707 3470 4.91 32 347.00 6 4 0
81 Rhode Island 10 757 3455 4.56 24 345.50 2 8 0
82 Stephen F. Austin 10 699 3444 4.93 19 344.40 0 10 0
83 Southeastern La. 10 624 3347 5.36 31 334.70 2 8 0
84 Pennsylvania 9 681 2985 4.38 24 331.67 3 6 0
85 Villanova 10 664 3293 4.96 35 329.30 6 4 0
86 Sacramento St. 10 694 3285 4.73 19 328.50 2 8 0
87 Southern Utah 10 701 3283 4.68 21 328.30 0 10 0
88 Southeast Mo. St. 10 681 3266 4.80 22 326.60 2 8 0
89 Marist 11 782 3587 4.59 25 326.09 3 8 0
90 Columbia 9 585 2932 5.01 21 325.78 1 8 0
91 Florida A&M 10 668 3229 4.83 23 322.90 3 7 0
92 Northeastern 10 657 3221 4.90 26 322.10 3 7 0
93 Austin Peay 10 652 3215 4.93 34 321.50 6 4 0
94 Chattanooga 10 650 3181 4.89 29 318.10 2 8 0
95 Wagner 10 640 3158 4.93 24 315.80 6 4 0
96 Norfolk St. 10 665 3144 4.73 29 314.40 7 3 0
97 Maine 10 655 3068 4.68 20 306.80 4 6 0
98 Bethune-Cookman 10 617 3034 4.92 28 303.40 4 6 0
99 Towson 10 660 2995 4.54 18 299.50 3 7 0
100 St. Francis (Pa.) 9 585 2641 4.51 20 293.44 2 7 0
101 Prairie View 9 572 2638 4.61 24 293.11 6 3 0
102 Georgetown 11 713 3186 4.47 21 289.64 1 10 0
103 Butler 11 751 3179 4.23 30 289.00 4 7 0
104 Alabama St. 10 652 2864 4.39 22 286.40 5 5 0
105 Northern Colo. 11 729 3132 4.30 15 284.73 1 10 0
106 Delaware St. 10 624 2842 4.55 24 284.20 9 1 0
107 N.C. A&T 10 606 2797 4.62 20 279.70 0 10 0
108 Texas Southern 9 643 2517 3.91 18 279.67 0 9 0
109 Bucknell 10 577 2740 4.75 25 274.00 2 8 0
110 Robert Morris 10 621 2680 4.32 22 268.00 4 6 0
111 Ark.-Pine Bluff 10 628 2657 4.23 18 265.70 3 7 0
112 Indiana St. 11 667 2889 4.33 16 262.64 0 11 0
113 Alcorn St. 9 571 2332 4.08 15 259.11 2 7 0
114 Mississippi Val. 10 671 2577 3.84 20 257.70 2 8 0
Lenoir Rhyne 224 YPG
FORT LEWIS 209.5 YPG
115 Savannah St. 9 533 1714 3.22 11 190.44 1 8 0
116 La Salle 9 538 1426 2.65 8 158.44 0 9 0


Wow. UM gives up a WHOLE 30 YARDS LESS than ASU. We should be darn scared, because why?!?

ASU has 6 games against the top 30 scoring offenses in the country.

Montana has 7 games against scoring offenses OUTSIDE the top 50

[Grrrrriz]

Montana beat the #6 scoring offense in the country. App state didn't.

Your comparison is stupid, entirely pointless and proves nothing.

[AlphaSigMD]

Montana beat the #6 scoring offense in the country. App state didn't.

Your comparison is stupid, entirely pointless and proves nothing.

My point was that the previous poster implied that the SoCon had no defense, and then said it WAS NOT because the SoCON had better offensive teams than any other conference.

WE DO have better offensive teams than any other conference.

And since he was implying that other places (ahem, the Big Sky) play better defense, I wanted to show a team by team comparison of the offensive competition that you play, and the offensive competition we play.

Just because you don't like the truth does not mean that the truth is stupid.

[AlphaSigMD]

Montana beat the #6 scoring offense in the country. App state didn't.

Your comparison is stupid, entirely pointless and proves nothing.

Also if ASU played EWU, we have one the best passing defenses in the country. We've shut down better corps of receivers this year than EWU could throw at us (pun intended).

[Grrrrriz]

Also if ASU played EWU, we have one the best passing defenses in the country. We've shut down better corps of receivers this year than EWU could throw at us (pun intended).

That is another ridiculous sentiment. I could just as easily say, if the BSC had Elon, Wofford, and Georgia Southern we would of beat them, because we have the nations 2nd best scoring defense, and a great run defense, as well as a pretty quality defensive end in Kroy Bierrman. As well, I doubt you have faced a better reciever. The Boyce/Nicholls combo is probably the best in the country, I really don't think your defense could contain them. I've seen you guys play, the whole world has. The fastest DB you have, I am sure Boyce is faster. EWU is going to suprise everyone except Montana.

[ASUG8]

That is another ridiculous sentiment. I could just as easily say, if the BSC had Elon, Wofford, and Georgia Southern we would of beat them, because we have the nations 2nd best scoring defense, and a great run defense, as well as a pretty quality defensive end in Kroy Bierrman. As well, I doubt you have faced a better reciever. The Boyce/Nicholls combo is probably the best in the country, I really don't think your defense could contain them. I've seen you guys play, the whole world has. The fastest DB you have, I am sure Boyce is faster. EWU is going to suprise everyone except Montana.

Very bold statement - Montana would be a better team in your scenario because they faced more parity in the conference, and the BSC wouldn't be under this "cloud of mystery" as to their conference strength. I like the parity the SoCon has had this year - it banged us up, it cost us a couple of games, but I guarantee you that App, Wofford, and hopefully GSU will come into the playoffs with NO misconceptions about the strength of our opposition. That doesn't mean we'll all win our games obviously, but a tough opponent will not be an anomaly. We've been battle-tested in conference and I think we'll make a good showing in the playoffs.

[mvemjsunpx]

Wow that is a mouthful!
Against this offense, there aren't too many defenses that look like they have a lot of quality

Numbers tend to get inflated when you move it up and down the field

What QB have you seen that can compare the what Edwards brings to the table? Contain him... Wishful thinking.

Clown post of the week!:p Praying for bad weather to help you stop the ASU offense. What do we play in South Florida where the weather is always nice! xeyebrowx


Apparently you thought this was a smack thread, even though it's clearly not posted in the smack forum. My post was not a "we're gonna beat you" post. I was stating my opinion that Appalachian State is not going to win the national championship & giving supporting evidence as to why I thought that. You responded with a juvenile "Armanti Edwards & the App. St. offense are gods & you should worship them" post. Next time, use some rational thought rather than blind emotional love for your team.

As for Armanti Edwards, he certainly has been contained this year when he's played. Wofford made him look terrible & their defense isn't exactly amazing. That even prompted Appalachian fan Dave Coulson to wonder if Edwards should be benched. Georgia Southern couldn't stop his running, but they did make his passing look bad with 2 INT's.

Though Edwards is a very good player, there are FCS QB's who bring more to the table than he does. San Diego's Josh Johnson has an insane efficiency rating of 200.7 & 38 TD passes to only 1 INT. He also has 665 yards rushing & leads the nation in total offense with 373.8 ypg. Cal Poly's Jonathan Daily also has a 200.7 efficiency rating (27 TD's & 3 INT's), and has 663 yards & 9 TD's rushing. As for possible playoff QB's, Nick Hill (SIU), Eric Sanders (UNI), Matt Nichols (EWU), Derrick Fourroux (McNeese), Joe Flacco (UD), & Kevin Hoyng (Dayton) all have efficiency ratings above 160. Hill's is above 170. And then there's Georgia Southern's Jayson Foster, who has a solid efficiency rating (131.9), and averages 164.9 ypg rushing, third in FCS.

But still, Edwards isn't the real reason I think Appalachian State will lose before the title game. It's the defense. The only likely playoff team with a worse run defense is Eastern Kentucky. If there's any one stat that determines postseason success or failure, it's run defense, especially since most of the field is always stocked with run-first teams.

[ASUG8]

As for Armanti Edwards, he certainly has been contained this year when he's played. Wofford made him look terrible & their defense isn't exactly amazing. That even prompted Appalachian fan Dave Coulson to wonder if Edwards should be benched. Georgia Southern couldn't stop his running, but they did make his passing look bad with 2 INT's.

Though Edwards is a very good player, there are FCS QB's who bring more to the table than he does. San Diego's Josh Johnson has an insane efficiency rating of 200.7 & 38 TD passes to only 1 INT. He also has 665 yards rushing & leads the nation in total offense with 373.8 ypg. Cal Poly's Jonathan Daily also has a 200.7 efficiency rating (27 TD's & 3 INT's), and has 663 yards & 9 TD's rushing. As for possible playoff QB's, Nick Hill (SIU), Eric Sanders (UNI), Matt Nichols (EWU), Derrick Fourroux (McNeese), Joe Flacco (UD), & Kevin Hoyng (Dayton) all have efficiency ratings above 160. Hill's is above 170. And then there's Georgia Southern's Jayson Foster, who has a solid efficiency rating (131.9), and averages 164.9 ypg rushing, third in FCS.

But still, Edwards isn't the real reason I think Appalachian State will lose before the title game. It's the defense. The only likely playoff team with a worse run defense is Eastern Kentucky. If there's any one stat that determines postseason success or failure, it's run defense, especially since most of the field is always stocked with run-first teams.

You make some good points - Trey Elder has a much better efficiency rating than Edwards, and I'm certain that there are better QB's out there. Remember though, Wofford took AE out in the first half - if you call an injury shutting him down, sobeit. If you want a total package, you want Jayson Foster. If you want a better than average passer and an exceptional runner, you want Edwards. While I have my misgivings about our defense in-conference, I think that because of the offensive efficiency in the SoCon this season our defense is probably not that bad OOC. We've been a shootout team all season with nearly every opponent, and we usually deliver enough offense to win the game. My $.02.

[Grrrrriz]

Very bold statement - Montana would be a better team in your scenario because they faced more parity in the conference, and the BSC wouldn't be under this "cloud of mystery" as to their conference strength. I like the parity the SoCon has had this year - it banged us up, it cost us a couple of games, but I guarantee you that App, Wofford, and hopefully GSU will come into the playoffs with NO misconceptions about the strength of our opposition. That doesn't mean we'll all win our games obviously, but a tough opponent will not be an anomaly. We've been battle-tested in conference and I think we'll make a good showing in the playoffs.

My point was, (and trust me I know of how good, GSU, Wofford, and App are) My original point was that, App has played a lot of high scoring offenses this year, and they are one, most of them were from their conference. Montana hasn't played those teams, but, if a lot of teams from a single conference have really high producing offenses, maybe its because the defenses aren't up to snuff? Not necessarily true, but a valid point. As well, I was disputing whether or not Apps pass d could contain Aaron Boyce, I don't think many can. He is real good. You certainly will do well in the Playoffs, everyone knows that. Comparing High Power offensive opponents as an indicator of how good you are proves no point.

Remember the Weber/PSU game, highest scoring game in Div 1 since its been called that, but they are not very good.xthumbsupx

[boonegoon]

As for Armanti Edwards, he certainly has been contained this year when he's played. Wofford made him look terrible & their defense isn't exactly amazing. That even prompted Appalachian fan Dave Coulson to wonder if Edwards should be benched. Georgia Southern couldn't stop his running, but they did make his passing look bad with 2 INT's.

.

While I agree that Armanti has had his problems throwing the ball this year, I don't think he was healthy until the Ga Southern game. He was hurt more than he or the staff knew and coming back to play GSU he was rusty. I don't think he should have played against Wofford becauseTrey was doing great but that doesn't matter. That being said, the playoffs are here and we can stop this pi*#ing contest for this year at least.

[ASUG8]

My point was, (and trust me I know of how good, GSU, Wofford, and App are) My original point was that, App has played a lot of high scoring offenses this year, and they are one, most of them were from their conference. Montana hasn't played those teams, but, if a lot of teams from a single conference have really high producing offenses, maybe its because the defenses aren't up to snuff? Not necessarily true, but a valid point. As well, I was disputing whether or not Apps pass d could contain Aaron Boyce, I don't think many can. He is real good. You certainly will do well in the Playoffs, everyone knows that. Comparing High Power offensive opponents as an indicator of how good you are proves no point.

Remember the Weber/PSU game, highest scoring game in Div 1 since its been called that, but they are not very good.xthumbsupx

I see your point, but I think the chances of having every team in the SoCon with no defense is a little unlikely. Granted, the same could be said about having more than our fair share of strong offenses. Having watched a number of games in the Socon this year, I do lean toward offensive proficiency this year in the Socon. Given that, I think our defenses when playing OOC will likely be a bit better than they have demonstrated in conference. Like I said, the Socon has become a shootout conference this year, many times with the last possession deciding the game. ASU has only been held to 31 points at a low this season in a losing effort, and as high as 79 against and admittedly outclassed and undercoached WCU. I believe we have the ability (ASU) to put up points on anyone this year, but it may come down to the last possession to seal the deal. I'm not underestimating the importance of defense, but if you don't have at least as much on the other side of the ball you'll likely lose. Wofford and GSU have been very entertaining to watch, and completely confounding to most defenses and I wish them much luck (please, just come up one game shy....). I won't beat on UM now - I haven't seen them play except on paper and I have no idea what that matchup would look like. I guess that's why we have so much conjecture on what's going to happen.....

[AlphaSigMD]

That is another ridiculous sentiment. I could just as easily say, if the BSC had Elon, Wofford, and Georgia Southern we would of beat them, because we have the nations 2nd best scoring defense, and a great run defense, as well as a pretty quality defensive end in Kroy Bierrman. As well, I doubt you have faced a better reciever. The Boyce/Nicholls combo is probably the best in the country, I really don't think your defense could contain them. I've seen you guys play, the whole world has. The fastest DB you have, I am sure Boyce is faster. EWU is going to suprise everyone except Montana.

Oh, thats right...I forgot. We shut down pretty much every bigtime receiver that came at us this season.

Maybe you forgot about Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington? We shut them completely down. But no..you are right Boyce/Nicholls could do what no other team with all-america receivers have done...

give me a break...

[appstate38]

Apparently you thought this was a smack thread, even though it's clearly not posted in the smack forum. My post was not a "we're gonna beat you" post. I was stating my opinion that Appalachian State is not going to win the national championship & giving supporting evidence as to why I thought that. You responded with a juvenile "Armanti Edwards & the App. St. offense are gods & you should worship them" post. Next time, use some rational thought rather than blind emotional love for your team.

As for Armanti Edwards, he certainly has been contained this year when he's played. Wofford made him look terrible & their defense isn't exactly amazing. That even prompted Appalachian fan Dave Coulson to wonder if Edwards should be benched. Georgia Southern couldn't stop his running, but they did make his passing look bad with 2 INT's.

Though Edwards is a very good player, there are FCS QB's who bring more to the table than he does. San Diego's Josh Johnson has an insane efficiency rating of 200.7 & 38 TD passes to only 1 INT. He also has 665 yards rushing & leads the nation in total offense with 373.8 ypg. Cal Poly's Jonathan Daily also has a 200.7 efficiency rating (27 TD's & 3 INT's), and has 663 yards & 9 TD's rushing. As for possible playoff QB's, Nick Hill (SIU), Eric Sanders (UNI), Matt Nichols (EWU), Derrick Fourroux (McNeese), Joe Flacco (UD), & Kevin Hoyng (Dayton) all have efficiency ratings above 160. Hill's is above 170. And then there's Georgia Southern's Jayson Foster, who has a solid efficiency rating (131.9), and averages 164.9 ypg rushing, third in FCS.

But still, Edwards isn't the real reason I think Appalachian State will lose before the title game. It's the defense. The only likely playoff team with a worse run defense is Eastern Kentucky. If there's any one stat that determines postseason success or failure, it's run defense, especially since most of the field is always stocked with run-first teams.

You have made some good statistical arguments. I agree that our defense has been a glaring weak spot for our team, No doubt, and while you explained yourself much better with this latest post. I was taking what you posted and based on what our offense has done simply pointed out why I thought your reasons weren't valid. I fully expect to have to get in some track meets to win during the playoffs. My point is can our opponents keep up. That is one of the bonuses of the spread option. How many of those teams run that style of offense or even see it. Great Run defenses can't commit 7 or 8 guys to the box if you are facing a 4 wideout set all the time.

[Cap'n Cat]

*Yawn*

Closed circuit to ASU fans: Don't become like many Montana fans, please. You are NOT the end-all, be-all of college football.

Thank you,

Cap'n Cat

:)

[Tailbone]

*Yawn*

Closed circuit to ASU fans: Don't become like many Montana fans until you have a similar record of accomplishment, please. You are NOT the end-all, be-all of college football - that's reserved for the Griz. Feel free however to be a pompous, self-important, stuffed shirt like me - Cap'n Cat. It doesn't require anything more than hot air and a large pair of pants.

Thank you,

Cap'n Cat

:)

Thanks Cap'n!

[Cap'n Cat]

Thanks Cap'n!

Hey, you're welcome. This stuffed shirt has a pretty good grasp on what fans like you are all about, eh?

[Grizo406]

At this point, I'm thinkin' UNI is the team to beat in Chattanooga. I'd be happy if they won their first National Championship!

Wouldn't mind seeing Georgia Southern, or Delaware win another one!

Any of the above mentioned teams win the big one, it will be more than fine with me.

[Appaholic]

At this point, I'm thinkin' UNI is the team to beat in Chattanooga. I'd be happy if they won their first National Championship!

Wouldn't mind seeing Georgia Southern, or Delaware win another one!

Any of the above mentioned teams win the big one, it will be more than fine with me.

I agree with UNI, but cannot watch GSU win a 7th....some things just aren't fair....xsmhx

[Tailbone]

Hey, you're welcome. This stuffed shirt has a pretty good grasp on what fans like you are all about, eh?

I doubt it.

[AppStateold299]

I want App to be the first team to ever 3peat, but realistically their defense has to dramatically step up their game for that to even be a possibility. I don't know exactly why our teams defense has struggled this year, but it has let us down. I couldn't stand for GSU to win it all and they need help even getting into the playoffs this year with their disappointing lose last week. I think UNI is the top runner, but like we all have said I can't wait to see the playoffs and the uncertainty that comes with the FCS.

SETTLE IT ON THE FIELD!