Bracketology 2007, Week 4

[TheValleyRaider]

Let's see how they stand

With one week to go in the regular season, the playoff brackets are coming into sharp focus. As usual, we'll try to select 16 teams for the postseason based on current resumes, then seed and bracket them in a way that makes sense. There will be a couple of changes to the bracketing formula this week, partly in the interest of trying something new. We're always trying to keep it fresh around here xnodx

Some things do not change, and that's the presence of the autobids. 7 of the 8 have been clinched (they'll be marked with a *), while the 8th will be determined in the usual fashion.
Big Sky-Montana*
CAA-Massachusetts#
Gateway-Northern Iowa*
MEAC-Delaware State*
OVC-Eastern Kentucky*
Patriot-Fordham*
Southern-Wofford*
Southland-McNeese State*
#-I'm awarding UMass the autobid for the time being. Their record vs. common opponents is guaranteed to finish at 5-1, while UR currently stands at 4-1 (UR has yet to play W&M, who UMass already beat). 5 of 6 seems better to me than 4 of 5, so UMass is the one still, for now. The other option was keeping them tied and calling the CAA ADs for the conference call that would have to break the tie, but for some reason I couldn't get through to any of them. Oh well, tough for Richmond.

Next, the at-larges. Taken with the usual 8+1 formula, we get:
1-Appalachian State
2-Southern Illinois
3-Richmond
4-Delaware
5-James Madison
6-Georgia Southern
7-Hofstra
8-Eastern Washington
+1-Colgate
-I skipped 7-4 YSU, 6-4 UNH and 6-4 Elon because they were both only able to reach 7 wins, which in my opinion puts them behind 8 win teams looking for a spot
-I skipped Dayton as the +1 because their 8-1 record (2 sub D-Is) does not look as good to me as the 7-3's Colgate and EIU have put up (against all D-Is in tougher conferences). I'm also convinced the Committee will leave Dayton in the Gridiron Classic, knowing the Flyers have that clinched
-In the end, I took Colgate over EIU as the +1 because the GPI rates the Patriot League as the #7 conference in FCS, while the OVC is #12. For the record, the Pioneer League is #13. For comparison, Colgate is T38 in the GPI, while EIU is 40
-Alabama A&M and Norfolk State are still also probably alive for that last playoff spot, along I suppose, with Dayton
-Colgate gets in over Hofstra, which is really hurt the most by being the 5th CAA team
-For the record, I still believe it is more likely than not that Colgate will miss the playoffs, but I have a methodology for this, and I'm sticking to it

16 playoff teams are:
Appalachian State
Colgate
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Fordham
Georgia Southern
James Madison
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Brackets to come

[DSUHornet]

i think something very crazy will happen. something tells me the chips are going to fall very right for a team that looks like they have no chance to get in. i wont say anything to jinx it.

[AlphaSigMD]

I was wondering when this was going to come out.

It really has become a substitute for what Matt did over at SportsNetwork, because Coulson doesn't do them anymore.

[TheValleyRaider]

As a reminder, here's the 16:
Appalachian State
Colgate
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Fordham
Georgia Southern
James Madison
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Seeds
Seeds are chosen mostly by rankings, with an eye to geography for an East, South, Midwest, West split
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Montana
4-Southern Illinois
UNI is still, to me, the clear #1. I kept McNeese over Montana for the #2 because I've had them there all year, and the GPI ranks the Pokes significantly higher. 2 of the 3 human polls put Montana higher, which could easily be enough for the committee. Tough choice to make because the winner gets homefield for the semis, and both Missoula and Lake Charles are tough places to play. I took SIU as the #4 because of their higher ranking that UMass or ASU. I could just as easily see UMass as the seed with their standing as CAA champion. Appalachian State would also be likely, but at the moment I would put them behind SIU and UMass.

Pairings
This is where things will get a little more interesting. After some discussion last week, and a review of the Rulebook, I've decided to try something a little different. Instead of selecting 4 home teams, then matching games, we're going to go backwards. First, we'll pair the matchups on geography. Some attention will be given to rankings, but geography is the first key. Bussing at all possible times, but once you're flying, anywhere becomes possible. No intra-conference matchups allowed. Pairings are:
1-Northern Iowa vs. Eastern Washington
2-McNeese State vs. Georgia Southern
3-Montana vs. Colgate
4-Southern Illinois vs.Eastern Kentucky
Appalachian State vs. Richmond
Delaware vs. Delaware State
Fordham vs. Massachusetts
James Madison vs. Wofford

Home Games
Next, we take each pairing and figure out who's hosting the matchup.
Northern Iowa
McNeese State
Montana
Southern Illinois
are guaranteed home games as the 4 seeds.
For the other 4 games, I'll take:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
James Madison
ASU and UD seem like the more obvious choices. I could see Fordham outbidding UMass, although the Minutemen have better attendance, so I stuck with them. JMU seems likely to bid high as well, although that could be really interesting looking at those numbers with Wofford.

Bracketing
Finally, we match the pairings to create the bracket. Geography is involved here, as is some level of seeding. With games listed by the host, we'll mix them as such:
1-Northern Iowa with James Madison
2-McNeese State with Delaware
3-Montana with Appalachian State
4-Southern Illinois with Massachusetts

This gives us a bracket that looks like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington

James Madison
Wofford

4-Southern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky

Massachusetts
Fordham

2-McNeese State
Georgia Southern

Delaware
Delaware State

3-Montana
Colgate

Appalachian State
Richmond

A note on next week: Because this exercise relies on the GPI, and the GPI will not be released until after the brackets come out, this is the final Regular Season verson of Bracketology. After the GPI is released for the week, I will take a look at how the playoffs were selected, and see how well the bracketology fit in, as well as some possible changes for next year.

[bostonspider]

I find it a lot more likely that UR & Wofford and App State & JMU will be paired. I am not sure you reward UR's CAA Title with a trip to Boone, let JMU who came in 2/3rd have that honor, and let UR host Wofford in 22,000 seat UR Stadium.

[89Hen]

My stab using your teams and seeds without looking at your pairings. Man it's getting tougher every week for the pairings. xeyebrowx


Eastern Washington at #1 Northern Iowa
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Kentucky at #4 Southern Illinois
Fordham at James Madison

Wofford at #2 McNeese State
Richmond at Appalachian State

Massachusetts at #3 Montana
Colgate at Georgia Southern

Sheesh, I don't know if I like that, but that's what I come up with. Perhaps seeding may go differently. Damn non-east coast bias. :p

[bluehenbillk]

A note on next week: Because this exercise relies on the GPI, and the GPI will not be released until after the brackets come out, this is the final Regular Season verson of Bracketology. After the GPI is released for the week, I will take a look at how the playoffs were selected, and see how well the bracketology fit in, as well as some possible changes for next year.

Nice job kid, you were doing great until right here where you crapped the credibility bed.

[TheValleyRaider]

Nice job kid, you were doing great until right here where you crapped the credibility bed.

I'm surprised you got that far then xlolx

[GaSouthern]

After McNeese crashed our first game of the season a few years ago i'd love to return the favor! It would be great to continue that OOC rivalry if you can call it that.

McNeese is a great school with great tradition.

[URMite]

Question, does it look like the commmittee does the pairing and then decides the home games or do they decide the home games first and then decide the pairings?

[TheValleyRaider]

Question, does it look like the commmittee does the pairing and then decides the home games or do they decide the home games first and then decide the pairings?

That I'm not really sure about. I've heard rumors to both, and I usually do the latter for this exercise. This week, mostly for the sake of doing something different, I tried the first way. It definately changes the way you look at the bracket

[Dukie95]

Question, does it look like the commmittee does the pairing and then decides the home games or do they decide the home games first and then decide the pairings?

The rule is, pair seeds by geography, seed is at home.
Next, pair remaining 8 by geography, then check bids to determine home site.

[UncleSam]

Using your 16 teams:


Colgate @ #1 UNI
JMU @ ASU

Fordham @ UMass
EWU @ #4 SIU



EKU @ #2 Montana
Del St @ Delaware

Richmond @ GSU
Wofford @ #3 McNeese St

[89Hen]

Based on the handbook it is:

1. Seeds chosen and placed in appropriate spots
2. Seeds paired with closest team
3. Rest of pairings with geography in mind
4. Pairings placed with seeded pairing with geography in mind

In reality, I don't think they stick to the letter of the law 100% every year. In 2004 GSU was the #4 four seed and had UNH first round even though JMU, Delaware, Lehigh, Lafayette and JSU are all closer than New Hampshire.

Last year and in 2005 they were pretty close though.

[Dukie95]

This gives us a bracket that looks like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington

James Madison
Wofford

4-Southern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky

Massachusetts
Fordham

2-McNeese State
Georgia Southern

Delaware
Delaware State

3-Montana
Colgate

Appalachian State
Richmond

Given those teams, that looks spot-on based on how I understand the pairing rules to work.

It's clear that JMU/UR will be paired with ASU/Wofford in some combination. I just don't know what the exact matchups will be.

My guess is those teams are ranked in the following bid order.

ASU
JMU
UR
Wofford

[bostonspider]

Given those teams, that looks spot-on based on how I understand the pairing rules to work.

It's clear that JMU/UR will be paired with ASU/Wofford in some combination. I just don't know what the exact matchups will be.

My guess is those teams are ranked in the following bid order.

ASU
JMU
UR
Wofford

Jim Miller (UR's AD) mentioned during the UR basketball game that Richmond bid very aggresively for a home game.
With a 22K seat stadium that allows them to normally outbid most others for an opening rounder. I would say the order would be:

ASU
UR
Wofford
JMU

With Richardson helping Wofford bid big...

[Dukie95]

Jim Miller (UR's AD) mentioned during the UR basketball game that Richmond bid very aggresively for a home game.
With a 22K seat stadium that allows them to normally outbid most others for an opening rounder. I would say the order would be:

ASU
UR
Wofford
JMU

With Richardson helping Wofford bid big...

Our AD has said the same, and we'll acutally be able to sell our seats. :)

Actually, I know that UR and Wofford can afford to take a loss by over-bidding to secure a home game.

[appfan2008]

Looks great valley raider... as i have said before your weekly bracketology is my favorite and I look forward to it every week.

[appfan2008]

Using your 16 teams:


Colgate @ #1 UNI
JMU @ ASU

Fordham @ UMass
EWU @ #4 SIU



EKU @ #2 Montana
Del St @ Delaware

Richmond @ GSU
Wofford @ #3 McNeese St

I dont think asu and uni will be lined up for a second round contest IMO

[URMite]

Our AD has said the same, and we'll acutally be able to sell our seats. :)
Actually, I know that UR and Wofford can afford to take a loss by over-bidding to secure a home game.

The difference is we have actually made an aggressive bid before.xsmiley_wix I would expect our bid to be the equivalent to about 15k more or less.

Interesting how the rules may leave a high bidding GSU without a partner that they can host, even if they have a top 4 non-seed bid.

ASU is definitely the high bidder in your group of four. It will be interesting to see how the others fall out. I don't think JMU/UR have been in the playoffs together in the last 20 years. JMU@Marshall UR@ASU in '87, if memory serves.

[colgate13]

The sportsnetwork should pick this up as a weekly column and pay you! Good job!!! What really works is the way you lay out methodology...

[WMTribe90]

I'm not convinced Colgate would get the nod over Hofstra. I know you are only looking at the games to date, but ending the season with a win over UMass would be fresh in the committee's mind. Then they would look at the side by side.

Both teams would have eight FCS DI wins. The CAA is currently the 3rd ranked FCS conferenc (59.03) and the PL is 7th (44.59). Hofstra is currently ranked 15th and Colgate is 43th among FCS teams in the latest Sagarin ratings. A win over UMass would likely put Hofstra in the top 12 at least.

Hofstra would be 2-0 against common opponents with a win over Umass and Colgate would be 1-1. Both teams beat Albany, Hofsta won 28-13 and Colgate won 13-11. Colgate lost to Umass, 35-17.

Hofstra would have a win over a playoff team (UMass). Colgate would have no wins over a playoff team.

Colgate losses are Fordham, UMass and Cornell.
Hofstra losses are NU, Villanova and UNH.

At this point in the season I agree that Colgate edges out Hofstra despite the difference in SOS because their performances to date are very similar and the committee will avoid a 5th CAA, if possible. However, a win over UMass would be a seperator IMO. I know its a big IF for Hofstra to win Saturday, but assuming they do and the committee takes seriously its mission of selecting the best 8 teams in the country for at-large bids regardless of conference affiliation, I think Hofstra should and would get the nod. Especially considering there is no geographical advantage to selecting Colgate over Hofstra.

If GSU loses to CSU, then I think they are both in over EIU and Alabama A&M.

Thanks for all the work, I definetely look forward to your weekly bracketology installment.

[LehighFan11]

3-Montana
Colgate



I would be looking foward to that matchup.

[89Hen]

I'm not convinced Colgate would get the nod over Colgate.
Me neither. I think Colgate would be the clear choice. :p

[danefan]

Me neither. I think Colgate would be the clear choice. :p

No way. What are you crazy! Colgate would definitely be in.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

No way. What are you crazy! Colgate would definitely be in.

What's with the bias here fellas, you're totally ignoring Colgate!

[skinny_uncle]

Question, does it look like the commmittee does the pairing and then decides the home games or do they decide the home games first and then decide the pairings?

Actually they use a modern high tech method. It involves a device that looks like this:












http://whyfiles.org/037wall_st/images/dartboard.gif

[lizrdgizrd]

Me neither. I think Colgate would be the clear choice. :p


No way. What are you crazy! Colgate would definitely be in.


What's with the bias here fellas, you're totally ignoring Colgate!
I think it would be nearly impossible to choose between Colgate and Colgate. You know everyone will cry foul if either of them gets woofed. xnodx

[blur2005]

Actually they use a modern high tech method. It involves a device that looks like this:
http://whyfiles.org/037wall_st/images/dartboard.gif
Seems like a reasonable system to me.

[colgate13]

I think Hofstra's biggest hurdle to the playoffs is UMass... they're not winning! (I hope)