PFL/NEC: Is this the year?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

So EWU is the only at-large contender from the BSC/GWFC.
Massachusetts, Hofstra (<- those two play next week), Richmond, Delaware, James Madison from the CAA. One will win the AQ.
None from the BSO/IVY/MAAC/SLC.
SIU from the GFC.
Norfolk State from the MEAC.
Albany from the NEC.
EIU from the OVC.
Colgate from the PL.
Dayton and San Diego from the PFL.
Appalachian State and Georgia Southern from the SOCON.
Alabama A&M and Prairie View from the SWAC.

17 teams with less than four losses. One will be the CAA AQ, the other 16 are looking for an at-large bid.

This was posted on another thread. Note that there is one NEC team, and two PFL teams on this list.

There are 5 CAA teams. One will get the autobid, and up to four could be playoff-eligible with 8 wins. Never have 4 at-large teams been selected for the playoffs.

Georgia Southern HAS to beat a FBS team to qualify.

One of the two SWAC teams could be playoff eligible, but if AAMU beats PV A&M and Alcorn State beats Jackson State neither will be (since AAMU will win SWAC East).

Norfolk State has to win and have a loss to Howard they have to sell to the committee.

Colgate has to win and sell their wins against Albany, Holy Cross and Towson as the "quality wins" they need to sell to the committee.

EIU has to win and have a loss to Illinois State they need to sell to the committee.

So, IS THIS THE YEAR?

[DetroitFlyer]

There is little doubt what the results of this poll will say here at AGS, but I have a feeling that the chips are falling just right.... So, the Magic Eight Ball says.... YES!!!!! It also says the team selected will be the Dayton Flyers.

[89Hen]

There is little doubt what the results of this poll will say here at AGS.
What if the yes votes are correct? Just another case of keeping the upstarts out? Still no answer from you as to how all those independants made the field DF. Been what, three years I've been asking you? xcoffeex

[BlueHen86]

I said no. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Albany get a bid. Nice OOC schedule; Colgate, Fordham, Hofstra and Montana.

[89Hen]

I said no. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Albany get a bid. Nice OOC schedule; Colgate, Fordham, Hofstra and Montana.
Agreed, but 1-3...

[BlueHen86]

Agreed, but 1-3...
That's why I said 'no' in the poll.

[USDFAN_55]

I think if San Diego can go to Davis and get a win (even if Davis is having an off year they are still a very tough team to beat at home), then they would be looking better than either Dayton or Albany. But looking better isn't good enough for the play-offs in my opinion. It would be great to see either Dayton, Albany, or San Diego in the play-offs.xnodx

[TheValleyRaider]

I think if San Diego can go to Davis and get a win (even if Davis is having an off year they are still a very tough team to beat at home), then they would be looking better than either Dayton or Albany. But looking better isn't good enough for the play-offs in my opinion. It would be great to see either Dayton, Albany, or San Diego in the play-offs.xnodx

San Diego win only really helps Dayton. Unless the Committee considers the Flyers locked into the GIC, they'll take Dayton if they want them. Dayton's head to head win is the difference there, and it would beyond shocking if the Committee took 2 Pioneer teams. USD is the 2nd choice. Remember also that Dayton's "official" record is 8-1 (due to 2 sub-DI victories). 8-1 does not look as impressive when compared to teams who have played more games in what are considered to be tougher conferences.

[USDFAN_55]

San Diego win only really helps Dayton. Unless the Committee considers the Flyers locked into the GIC, they'll take Dayton if they want them. Dayton's head to head win is the difference there, and it would beyond shocking if the Committee took 2 Pioneer teams. USD is the 2nd choice. Remember also that Dayton's "official" record is 8-1 (due to 2 sub-DI victories). 8-1 does not look as impressive when compared to teams who have played more games in what are considered to be tougher conferences.

But Dayton lost to a mediocre Morehead State team, a team San Diego had no problem with. Plus I think UC Davis is a tougher game to win than Fordham.

[TheValleyRaider]

But Dayton lost to a mediocre Morehead State team, a team San Diego had no problem with.

No offense, but so what? Dayton beat San Diego head to head. If a Pioneer team gets in, it'll be Dayton because they won the game. Again, unless the Committee is both set on putting a Pioneer team in the field, and set on Dayton being in the Gridiron Classic, San Diego's season ends on Saturday.

[BlueHen86]

But Dayton lost to a mediocre Morehead State team, a team San Diego had no problem with. Plus I think UC Davis is a tougher game to win than Fordham.
Even though you may be right, I don't think the committee will overlook Dayton in favor of San Diego.
As I already said, I don't think the PFL or NEC gets a bid this year.
If they did I'd pick Albany at 8-3 (they would have to beat C. Conn.)
Albany has 1 quality win and 3 good losses.
Dayton has 1 quality win and 1 bad loss.
San Diego (if the beat Davis) has 1 quality win and a loss to Dayton.

[89Hen]

Plus I think UC Davis is a tougher game to win than Fordham.
xeyebrowx They are 4-6 with their wins coming against a combined 7-33. xcoffeex

[USDFAN_55]

xeyebrowx They are 4-6 with their wins coming against a combined 7-33. xcoffeex

The PL is weak in comparison to the GWFC, and you can't argue that. Davis would be PL champ no problem if they were in that league.

[BlueHen86]

The PL is weak in comparison to the GWFC, and you can't argue that. Davis would be PL champ no problem if they were in that league.
West Coast bias.:D

[89Hen]

The PL is weak in comparison to the GWFC, and you can't argue that. Davis would be PL champ no problem if they were in that league.
Agreed on the first, don't know on the second.

[flyenhigh]

But Dayton lost to a mediocre Morehead State team, a team San Diego had no problem with. Plus I think UC Davis is a tougher game to win than Fordham.

Are u smoking crack?

[JoltinJoe]

I wonder who the two yes votes are?

Fordham is starting 12 freshmen and sophomores. This is a team getting better with every outing. On what basis do you say UC Davis is a tougher game?

Given the current numbers, I think there is a better chance this year of a NEC or PFL team getting an invite than in any prior year.

[flyenhigh]

I wish....but none of the teams get a bid. USD is the last to be considered shoot they are not even in the radar.

[Dane96]

Agreed, but 1-3...

Exactly- That loss to Colgate STINGS!

I will be happy to know that we are in the conversation, and I do believe we will be brought up.

Such a fluke way we lost at 'Gate. It could have gone to either team that day...and I would love to see that game today. We were breaking in a lot of guys...but that is no excuse.

That 2pt loss...is a killer. 9-2 with wins over 'Gate and Fordham...and not bad showings against Montana and Hofstra--That may have gotten it done.

[USDFAN_55]

I wish....but none of the teams get a bid. USD is the last to be considered shoot they are not even in the radar.

And Dayton is? Get real! Look at the San Diego team last year and tell me you think Dayton will make it this year. You're living a pipe dream.xnodx If San Diego didn't make it last year, there is no way Dayton or Albany make it this year. What you guys need to do is concentrate on the game with Albany (most likely) and represent the PFL with a victory.

[Dane96]

And let me tell you...Albany vs. CCSU on paper is a win for Albany...but I am REAL NERVOUS about it. This is as close to a rivalry as we have in the NEC...SINCE DAY 1.

This is no gimmee....and I expect a nailbiter.

[colgate13]

Ditto Dane96. We're a better team now than back then too... except the games I want back are Fordham and Cornell!

[flyenhigh]

And Dayton is? Get real! Look at the San Diego team last year and tell me you think Dayton will make it this year. You're living a pipe dream.xnodx If San Diego didn't make it last year, there is no way Dayton or Albany make it this year. What you guys need to do is concentrate on the game with Albany (most likely) and represent the PFL with a victory.

I never said UD would get a bid BUT their chance of getting one over USD is ten fold. And last year by USD not getting a bid could make it easier for UD or Albany this year because of the controversy last year although highly unlikely.


USD has 0 chancexlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[TheValleyRaider]

Ditto Dane96. We're a better team now than back then too... except the games I want back are Fordham and Cornell!

Especially Cornell!! xmadx xmadx xmadx

[USDFAN_55]

USD has 0 chancexlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Well it looks like we are in the same boat as you thenxthumbsupx

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Playoff worthiness is one thing. Having ENOUGH teams with 8 wins (min 7 D-I wins) is another.

Remember 1 CAA team will be the autobid.

"Power Conference" teams eligible even with a loss
Delaware, UMass, Richmond, Southern Illinois, Appalachian State

"Power Conference" teams on the bubble
Eastern Washington (vs. Weber State, not a gimme)
Hofstra (UMass, no gimme at all)
JMU (Towson, probable win)
Georgia Southern (tough assignment at FBS Colorado State)

Non-"Power Conference" teams on the bubble
Eastern Illinois (have to beat 4-6 Samford)
Colgate (have to beat Holy Cross, no gimme)
Norfolk State (have to beat WSSU, no gimme either)

SWAC
If Jackson State beats Alcorn State, AND AAMU beats PV A&M, AAMU is eligible
If Jackson State LOSES to Alcorn State and AAMU beats PV A&M, AAMU wins SWAC East and is ineligible.
NOTE: PV A&M would only have 7 wins if they beat AAMU.

The thermonuclear scenario could see plenty of teams in play... There are also huge questions here. To what lengths does the committee go to keep five CAA teams out of the playoffs?

Suppose Jackson State loses as does AAMU. HC beats Colgate, WSSU beats Norfolk State. UMass beats Hofstra, Colorado State beats GSU. Let's say UMass gets the auto.

That leaves SIU, Delaware, Richmond, App State. Then: EWU, JMU, and EIU, and a PFL/NEC team. Do you really deny a PFL/NEC team, or do you really dip into the 7-4 teams?

I feel it is very much in play. Stuff needs to happen, but they are definitely in play if they win. I mean, did I give a completely implausible scenario here?

[USDFAN_55]

West Coast bias.:D

No, just a realistxnodx :D

[JoltinJoe]

Ditto Dane96. We're a better team now than back then too... except the games I want back are Fordham and Cornell!

I'd like Dayton and Albany back. Both were games we could have won. Too many mistakes. Six turnovers in really poor weather against Dayton, three against Albany. We had more turnovers against Dayton and Albany combined than we have had in the six games since then.

I spoke to Tom Masella at a dinner in early October. He told me the coaching staff had been using what happened with Dayton and Albany to send a message that the skill players had to hold onto the ball. He said Albany and Dayton were experienced and oportunistic defenses that punished sloppy ball handling. They've kept stressing in practice the need to protect the ball and said he expected that we would do much better in that regard going forward.

[BlueHen86]

I never said UD would get a bid BUT their chance of getting one over USD is ten fold. And last year by USD not getting a bid could make it easier for UD or Albany this year because of the controversy last year although highly unlikely.


USD has 0 chancexlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

There was no controversy last year. San Diego didn't get picked and then went out and lost their next game, in effect proving the committee right for not selecting them.

[USDFAN_55]

There was no controversy last year. San Diego didn't get picked and then went out and lost their next game, in effect proving the committee right for not selecting them.

So I guess that mans the OVC teams aren't worthy either. When's the last time an OVC team won a first round game?

[BlueHen86]

So I guess that mans the OVC teams aren't worthy either. When's the last time an OVC team won a first round game?

That's quite a leap you're making there.xeekx Perhaps you should start a new thread.

[USDFAN_55]

That's quite a leap you're making there.xeekx Perhaps you should start a new thread.

I think that has already been discussed in several threads regarding play-off expansion and AQ's.

[BlueHen86]

I think that has already been discussed in several threads regarding play-off expansion and AQ's.
Then why did you bring it up?xconfusedx

[Tod]

Exactly- That loss to Colgate STINGS!

I will be happy to know that we are in the conversation, and I do believe we will be brought up.

Such a fluke way we lost at 'Gate. It could have gone to either team that day...and I would love to see that game today. We were breaking in a lot of guys...but that is no excuse.

That 2pt loss...is a killer. 9-2 with wins over 'Gate and Fordham...and not bad showings against Montana and Hofstra--That may have gotten it done.

I agree. Just keep it up! xnodx xnodx xnodx

[USDFAN_55]

Then why did you bring it up?xconfusedx

It was just a comeback to your comment about San Diego not showing their play-off worthiness when they lost to UC Davis last year (by the way that was the same UC Davis team that went to Montana State and spanked them)

[Tod]

There was no controversy last year. San Diego didn't get picked and then went out and lost their next game, in effect proving the committee right for not selecting them.

Welllll, BH, I agree with you, but OTOH, USD was coming off the playoff disappointment, playing on the road, and playing against a better UCD team (than the current one) that was also playing for pride (to secure their 37th winning season in a row, which, unfortunately, has come to an end :( ).

And it was a pretty good game.

AGS, as they say. I don't think it proved anything, but it silenced some of the discussion.

But, with that said, if USD had made the playoffs, I think they'd have exited in the first round. But who knows? Any Given Saturday! :)

[BlueHen86]

It was just a comeback to your comment about San Diego not showing their play-off worthiness when they lost to UC Davis last year (by the way that was the same UC Davis team that went to Montana State and spanked them)
I never mentioned the OVC.

[BlueHen86]

Welllll, BH, I agree with you, but OTOH, USD was coming off the playoff disappointment, playing on the road, and playing against a better UCD team (than the current one) that was also playing for pride (to secure their 37th winning season in a row, which, unfortunately, has come to an end :( ).

And it was a pretty good game.

AGS, as they say. I don't think it proved anything, but it silenced some of the discussion.

But, with that said, if USD had made the playoffs, I think they'd have exited in the first round. But who knows? Any Given Saturday! :)
I'm not trying to 'dis' San Diego. I just don't remember their play off omission as being controversial. Seemed like most people outside of the PFL knew they weren't going to get a bid.

The loss to UCD may not have proven anything, but it backed up the committees decision to omit them. xtwocentsx

[USDFAN_55]

I never mentioned the OVC.

But you did say San Diego showed that the commitee made the right choice in leaving them out of the play-offs when they lost to UC Davis the following week, thus showing they were not play-off worthy. That is why I mentioned the OVC? You can't base the UC Davis game as justification for leaving San Diego out as the right choice. Had the Ivies participated in the play-offs no one would have thought twice if Yale was invited to the play-offs, would they?

[BlueHen86]

But you did say San Diego showed that the commitee made the right choice in leaving them out of the play-offs when they lost to UC Davis the following week, thus showing they were not play-off worthy. That is why I mentioned the OVC? You can't base the UC Davis game as justification for leaving San Diego out as the right choice. Had the Ivies participated in the play-offs no one would have thought twice if Yale was invited to the play-offs, would they?

If one loss (UCD) doesn't make you unworthy.
One win (Yale) doesn't make you worthly. Apparently the committee felt the same way.

[USDFAN_55]

If one loss (UCD) doesn't make you unworthy.
One win (Yale) doesn't make you worthly. Apparently the committee felt the same way.

Where did I say the Yale victory made San Diego worthy. I was pointing out the hypocrisy involved in FCS play-off selection. Name recognition gets you somewherexnodx Read what my comment saysxreadx

[BlueHen86]

Where did I say the Yale victory made San Diego worthy. I was pointing out the hypocrisy involved in FCS play-off selection. Name recognition gets you somewherexnodx Read what my comment saysxreadx

What hypocrisy? The Ivies don't participate in the playoffs. You have no way of knowing if Yale would have been awarded a bid last year, and you have no way of knowing the reaction if they had been.
You used a hypothetical situation to point out hypocrisy.xnonono2x

[USDFAN_55]

What hypocrisy? The Ivies don't participate in the playoffs. You have no way of knowing if Yale would have been awarded a bid last year, and you have no way of knowing the reaction if they had been.
You used a hypothetical situation to point out hypocrisy.xnonono2x

The consensus would be that the Ivy league champ would be a play-off team if the Ivies participated in the play-offsxnodx

[BlueHen86]

But you did say San Diego showed that the commitee made the right choice in leaving them out of the play-offs when they lost to UC Davis the following week, thus showing they were not play-off worthy. That is why I mentioned the OVC? You can't base the UC Davis game as justification for leaving San Diego out as the right choice. Had the Ivies participated in the play-offs no one would have thought twice if Yale was invited to the play-offs, would they?



The consensus would be that the Ivy league champ would be a play-off team if the Ivies participated in the play-offsxnodx

If the Ivies participated in the playoffs Princeton would have gotten the bid last year, not Yale.xnodx I doubt if Yale would have gotten an at large, but as I said earlier, it's hypothetical - we'll never know and we can't base an argument on it.

[BlueHen86]

I'm going to bed now. Good night all. xpeacex
Good discussion USDFAN_55.xthumbsupx

[USDFAN_55]

I'm going to bed now. Good night all. xpeacex
Good discussion USDFAN_55.xthumbsupx

Ditto

[TheValleyRaider]

I'm going to bed now. Good night all. xpeacex
Good discussion USDFAN_55.xthumbsupx


Ditto

Awww, this was just getting good xmadx xrotatehx xsmiley_wix

xpopcornx xpopcornx xpopcornx

[AZGrizFan]

Agreed, but 1-3...

Yep. even 2-2 would have been enough for me.... (as long as that second victory wasn't against my Griz...) xcoolx

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton has a win over a team bound for the playoffs, ( unlike USD last year ), and we have a win over USD, a team that should finish the season ranked in the majority of top 25 polls. As LFN pointed out, the chips could fall in such a way that an 8-1 Dayton, with two good wins, gets in over a 7-4 team. Do not be surprised when it happens!

GO DAYTON FLYERS!!!!!

[Dane96]

Detroit Flyer, what are you talking about.

Why will USD finish ranked in the MAJORITY of polls? Where is this empirical evidence. Fact is, unless they beat UCD, they will not be ranked. If they win...yep they most likely will be ranked.

Man...you really just don't get it.

[DetroitFlyer]

USD, WHEN they defeat UCD will be 10-1, 9-1 FCS, with their only loss to PFL Champion and ranked Dayton. Aside from the loss to Dayton, USD would be an obvious playoff choice this year. Looking at the top 25, USD should be ranked once this happens!

Here is the scary deal for the Old Guard, two teams from the PFL could be selected! AND, Frankly, I am not so sure that Albany should not be selected as well. Just too many multiple loss teams in the running for the last few spots.

Interesting to say the least!

[Dane96]

As long as you are basing that on the UCD game...I don't have a problem with it.

But...then you have the scenerio of Dayton possibly losing to the NEC rep. If that occurs, than USD would have one quality win (UCD) and a loss to Dayton...which would be more than likely ranked below the NEC rep.

Way too many "what ifs" for you to conclude that Dayton has a quality win over two Top 25 teams at end of season.

Fact is...they, just like the Danes, have ONE quality win- The victory over Top 25 Fordham.

And stop the crack smoking- USD and DAYTON aren't both getting in the playoffs.

[JoltinJoe]

USD, WHEN they defeat UCD will be 10-1, 9-1 FCS, with their only loss to PFL Champion and ranked Dayton. Aside from the loss to Dayton, USD would be an obvious playoff choice this year. Looking at the top 25, USD should be ranked once this happens!

Here is the scary deal for the Old Guard, two teams from the PFL could be selected! AND, Frankly, I am not so sure that Albany should not be selected as well. Just too many multiple loss teams in the running for the last few spots.

Interesting to say the least!

It does seem that the math is breaking your way. Will the Committee reach for a four-loss team that finished fourth in its conference or will it invite an NEC or PFL team? That seems to be a realistic question at this point.

I don't recall any year where the eligible teams have been so few and the "mid majors" had resumes like they present this year.

I'd guess still a longshot though.

[danefan]

I can't wrap my head around all the possibilities. I'm not even sure who to root for this weekend.

Do I root for Hofstra to beat UMass? Do I root for Colgate or Holy Cross?
This is great stuff!

What I do know, is that Albany has one quality win, three quality losses (if there is such a thing) and no bad losses. Does that stack up against a 7-4 UNH with a win over Northwestern? I know a 7-4 is always a stretch, but I somehow see the chips falling in that direction before I see Albany or Dayton getting a bid.

But I will say this, I have a funny feeling that if it comes down to Albany or Dayton, I think Albany would get the nod. Stronger OOC schedule and with the NEC auto-bid on the horizon there may be some alterior motives for committee members to get an NEC team in the playoffs. As opposed to a PFL team whose conference has said they have no interest in an auto-bid. I think there may be some committee members who say "lets throw Albany in and see what the NEC is really made of." Just a hunch, but not implausible.

I love the discussion though. And I wouldn't mind heading over to UMass for a first-rounder!

And BTW, I voted NO in the poll.

[Ruler 79]

The only game we should be worrying about is CCSU! If we get by them and lightening strikes who knows. I also agree that Albany before Dayton ...RELAX DAYTON POSTERS...only because of strenghth of schedule. If Dayton did noy play DIII games then they probably get the bid hands down!

Go UA beat CCSU!!!!

[89Hen]

Here is the scary deal for the Old Guard, two teams from the PFL could be selected! AND, Frankly, I am not so sure that Albany should not be selected as well.
xlolx xnutsx

[DetroitFlyer]

The only game we should be worrying about is CCSU! If we get by them and lightening strikes who knows. I also agree that Albany before Dayton ...RELAX DAYTON POSTERS...only because of strenghth of schedule. If Dayton did noy play DIII games then they probably get the bid hands down!

Go UA beat CCSU!!!!

Nice try, no Division III teams on Dayton's schedule this year!!

[TheValleyRaider]

Nice try, no Division III teams on Dayton's schedule this year!!

Fine, just 5-6 D-II Central State and NAIA squad Urbana xrolleyesx

[DetroitFlyer]

Fine, just 5-6 D-II Central State and NAIA squad Urbana xrolleyesx


Dayton 45 Urbana 7

Dayton 40 CSU 0

[Dane96]

So...if we played DII's or NAIA's what does that accomplish.

NADA!

[USDFAN_55]

USD, WHEN they defeat UCD will be 10-1, 9-1 FCS, with their only loss to PFL Champion and ranked Dayton. Aside from the loss to Dayton, USD would be an obvious playoff choice this year. Looking at the top 25, USD should be ranked once this happens!

Here is the scary deal for the Old Guard, two teams from the PFL could be selected! AND, Frankly, I am not so sure that Albany should not be selected as well. Just too many multiple loss teams in the running for the last few spots.

Interesting to say the least!

This has been a crazy year for football. It started off with App State upsetting Michigan, and it could conclude with a PFL/NEC team getting a bid.xeekx I guess what happened to San Diego last year has made me very pesimistic, because I really don't see that happening this year. Had San Diego been undefeated, there would have been a very good chance of getting selected since that would be the 2nd season in a row that they were undefeated when it was selection time. If everything falls in the right direction though, we could see history this year.xnodx Don't you love football?!?!

[USDFAN_55]

Dayton has a win over a team bound for the playoffs, ( unlike USD last year ), and we have a win over USD, a team that should finish the season ranked in the majority of top 25 polls. As LFN pointed out, the chips could fall in such a way that an 8-1 Dayton, with two good wins, gets in over a 7-4 team. Do not be surprised when it happens!

GO DAYTON FLYERS!!!!!

True (only because Ivies don't participate), but USD's win was over a higher ranked team.

[Seawolf97]

So...if we played DII's or NAIA's what does that accomplish.

NADA!

I think Dayton needs a few Gateway opponets on thier schedule or maybe a trip to App. St- the Mountaineers are always looking for D-1 teams.
I know its a longshot but I hope Albany gets a bid for the playoffs. Worst case go out to Dayton and take the wings off the Flyersxnodx

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The committee would look at 3 teams. Remember the sub-D-I games don't count.

8-1 Dayton. GPI #34 (last week). Win over Fordham, San Diego, only loss to 7-3 Morehead State.

8-1 San Diego. GPI #54 (last week). Win over Northern Colorado and a possible win over UC-Davis, only loss to Dayton.

7-3 Albany. GPI #45 (last week). Win over Fordham, strength of schedule significantly better than UD & USD with losses to potentially three playoff teams (Montana is a lock, Hofstra probably gets in with a win over UMass, Colgate could sneak in with a win over Holy Cross).

If all three teams are eligible AND there are a lack of eligible teams, it will be a tough choice. IMO the fact that Dayton has already clinched may be a significant advantage for the Flyers despite the fact that they by far have played the most patsies.

[Dane96]

Clinched what, compared to whom?

[DetroitFlyer]

The committee would look at 3 teams. Remember the sub-D-I games don't count.

8-1 Dayton. GPI #34 (last week). Win over Fordham, San Diego, only loss to 7-3 Morehead State.

8-1 San Diego. GPI #54 (last week). Win over Northern Colorado and a possible win over UC-Davis, only loss to Dayton.

7-3 Albany. GPI #45 (last week). Win over Fordham, strength of schedule significantly better than UD & USD with losses to potentially three playoff teams (Montana is a lock, Hofstra probably gets in with a win over UMass, Colgate could sneak in with a win over Holy Cross).

If all three teams are eligible AND there are a lack of eligible teams, it will be a tough choice. IMO the fact that Dayton has already clinched may be a significant advantage for the Flyers despite the fact that they by far have played the most patsies.



GPI / Rankings....

I cannot ever prove it, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the "human polls" have been ranking USD, Dayton and Albany lower this year than last year due to what I'll call the San Diego factor. One of the things that created so much controversy last year was USD's high GPI. I do not know any of the computer ranking algorithms well enough to understand if they could be manipulated somehow to rank PFL or NEC teams lower, but I suspect that the human pollsters, who are of course people and have some biases, might be ranking USD, Dayton and Albany lower than they may have when all three were never, ever, seriously considered for a playoff bid.... It is kind of the same thing with Yale. No risk at all in rating them high as no one will ever know if you are wrong.... Rating a PFL or NEC team high might create a buzz for a playoff bid.... Well, hopefully you get the picture....

[danefan]

I'm not sure about any conspiracy theories or anything, but I am curious as why Albany is so much lower in the computer rankings then the PL teams specifically (Massey, Sagarin, etc...). PL is on a down year, but yet the NEC makes no ground in the computer polls. I can't figure out the computer polls so I don't even try.

[USDFAN_55]

I'm not sure about any conspiracy theories or anything, but I am curious as why Albany is so much lower in the computer rankings then the PL teams specifically (Massey, Sagarin, etc...). PL is on a down year, but yet the NEC makes no ground in the computer polls. I can't figure out the computer polls so I don't even try.

That's because of name recognition. Past success ways heavily on a voters decisions when it comes down to ranking a team/league. We all know the PL has been down for a few years now, but it seems as though they are still riding the Colgate wave from a few years ago when they made it to the championship game.

[USDFAN_55]

Clinched what, compared to whom?

Took the words right out of my mouth. I guess they mean they clinched the right to play in the GIC game.

[danefan]

Took the words right out of my mouth. I guess they mean they clinched the right to play in the GIC game.

I think he was also comparing USD and Dayton only. That would probably give Dayton an edge over USD.

[USDFAN_55]

I think he was also comparing USD and Dayton only. That would probably give Dayton an edge over USD.

Possibly.... but in my eyes it is hard to overlook the loss to Morehead State. That's a game that a play-off contender can't lose. I'm still stumped as to how Morehead State held so many opponents to such a low rushing number (average less than 20 yards rushing per game), and then gave up over 200 yards on the ground to San Diego (154 yards to our running back JT Rogan); the kicker is San Diego is not a dominant running team! I mean they can run the ball, but we all know their strength is in the passing game.

[danefan]

I agree. As weird as this sounds. I think one bad loss (morehead) is worse than 2 or even 3 good losses....

[Go...gate]

Exactly- That loss to Colgate STINGS!

I will be happy to know that we are in the conversation, and I do believe we will be brought up.

Such a fluke way we lost at 'Gate. It could have gone to either team that day...and I would love to see that game today. We were breaking in a lot of guys...but that is no excuse.

That 2pt loss...is a killer. 9-2 with wins over 'Gate and Fordham...and not bad showings against Montana and Hofstra--That may have gotten it done.

That was a good game and Colgate has progressed well from there, as well. I hope they can finish well against the Cross.

[flyenhigh]

Possibly.... but in my eyes it is hard to overlook the loss to Morehead State. That's a game that a play-off contender can't lose. I'm still stumped as to how Morehead State held so many opponents to such a low rushing number (average less than 20 yards rushing per game), and then gave up over 200 yards on the ground to San Diego (154 yards to our running back JT Rogan); the kicker is San Diego is not a dominant running team! I mean they can run the ball, but we all know their strength is in the passing game.

xblahblahx Give it up...please I am begging you.

[blur2005]

Dayton is the most qualified team from the NEC and Pioneer.

However, the Flyers lost to Morehead State...

ergo:

No NEC or Pioneer team deserves a shot.

[danefan]

Dayton is the most qualified team from the NEC and Pioneer.



Why? Care to support that position?

[Dane96]

Care to back up the assertation?

[blur2005]

Care to back up the assertation?
Well,

1. In order to make the playoffs, an NEC or Pioneer League team basically has to go 11-0, maybe 10-1.
2. If that team does lose, it must be to the best team on their schedule and, at the same time, that team MUST have a quality win of some sort.
3. This season, Dayton has one quality win, Fordham. (No, I don't count San Diego)
4. This might have come into the discussion if Dayton's only loss were to a top 25 team. However, Dayton's only loss was to Morehead State, a team that, within the context of the Pioneer League, isn't that bad. However, considering the strength of the conference, Dayton had to go undefeated in conference to have a shot.
5. No NEC team fulfills number 1,

therefore,

No NEC or PL team will make the playoffs.

[USDFAN_55]

xblahblahx Give it up...please I am begging you.

I know, I know.... Truth hurtsxlolx xnodx xrotatehx

[Dane96]

Well,

1. In order to make the playoffs, an NEC or Pioneer League team basically has to go 11-0, maybe 10-1.
2. If that team does lose, it must be to the best team on their schedule and, at the same time, that team MUST have a quality win of some sort.
3. This season, Dayton has one quality win, Fordham. (No, I don't count San Diego)
4. This might have come into the discussion if Dayton's only loss were to a top 25 team. However, Dayton's only loss was to Morehead State, a team that, within the context of the Pioneer League, isn't that bad. However, considering the strength of the conference, Dayton had to go undefeated in conference to have a shot.
5. No NEC team fulfills number 1,

therefore,

No NEC or PL team will make the playoffs.

So Blur, just to follow you, Albany if they HAD gone 9-2 with wins over Colgate and Fordham would not be in the equation?

Or over Hofstra and Fordham....or any combination.

Come on my man.

I do agree, however, no one is making it this year.

[blur2005]

So Blur, just to follow you, Albany if they HAD gone 9-2 with wins over Colgate and Fordham would not be in the equation?

Or over Hofstra and Fordham....or any combination.

Come on my man.

I do agree, however, no one is making it this year.
If Albany went 9-2 but lost both games in the NEC, then no, they wouldn't deserve a place.

[danefan]

If Albany went 9-2 but lost both games in the NEC, then no, they wouldn't deserve a place.

Agreed. No way you can lose an NEC game and get a bid (thanks to teams like St. Francis and Sacred Heart), but had Albany beat Colgate, it would be very hard to keep them out at 9-2 with losses to Hofstra and Montana and wins over Colgate and Fordham. Would've, could've, should've.....didn't......xthumbsupx