At Large Scenarios

[KAUMASS]

I currently see 12 spots locked up. 7 AQ's locked up, 1 to be determined. AQ's are Northern Iowa, Montana, McNeese St, Wofford, Delaware St, E. Kentucky and Fordham.

At large locked up so far: UMass, Richmond, Appalachian, Southern Illinois, Delaware. One of these mentioned CAA teams with clinch the Colonial AQ. Delaware is in even with a loss this week, 7 D1 wins but win over Navy gets them in.

4 Spots remaining.

Locks if these teams win next week:

JMU-record would be 8-3, there in.
Hofstra-record would be 8-3, beat UMass, there in.
Georgia Southern-8-3 with win over Colorado State, there in. If they don't win, there out even as a 7-4 team with only 6 D1 wins.
Eastern Washington-record 8-3

Remaining teams with a chance if above 4 falter:

Colgate-playing Holy Cross. Win = 8-3.
Eastern Illinois-playing Samford. Win = 8-3.
New Hampshire-win =7-4 with win over Marshall. Possible
JMU- with loss=7-4
Villanova-win=7-4, just beat Delaware, played UMass to 4 OT's. Lost to Mayland by only 14.
Citadel-win=7-4. Played Wisconsin tough, tough SoCon schedule.
Montana State-win =7-4. Beat Griz, possible.
Some of the above 7-4 teams above (if they win)will be and are currently ranked higher than Eastern Illinois or Colgate at 8-3(if they win).

Teams with a million to one shot. GPI rankings are all roughly between 30-60. Have not verified number of D-1 wins.
Current Records:
Hampton-6-4
Albany-7-3
S.C. State-6-4
Nicholls St.-6-4
Cal Poly-6-4
San Diego-9-1.
Norfolk St-7-3
Holy Cross- 6-4

Notes:

Youngstown and Elon are out as they are 7-4, but only have 6 d-1 wins.
N.D. State out, ineligible.
Yale is out, Ivy league.
Grambling out, Bayou classic.


I think there may be a 7-4 team in the playoffs this year. Does the committe take a 7-4 CAA team over a possible 8-3 Colgate or Eastern Illinois club?

What do you guys think?. I think they do. However, many scenarios to be played out this week b-4 that can happen.

Good luck to all teams this week.xthumbsupx

[Cocky]

Alabama A&M could be a possible AL team.

[KAUMASS]

Alabama A&M could be a possible AL team.

Possible. They are ranked roughly around 40th in FCS. About 7-8 spots higher than the basement dwellers of SoCon- Chattanooga and CAA- Rhode Island. I don't see it, but I will put them in as a long shot.

[Cocky]

I don't think they will get a bid but they are eligible. Long shot sounds about right.

[joecooll6]

I think there may be a 7-4 team in the playoffs this year. Does the committe take a 7-4 CAA team over a possible 8-3 Colgate or Eastern Illinois club?

What do you guys think?. I think they do. However, many scenarios to be played out this week b-4 that can happen.

Good luck to all teams this week.xthumbsupx


No, I think Eastern Illinois would be in over a 7-4 team. The committee proved last year that they really want to get that second OVC team in regardless of how good they are.

[Umass74]

I believe UMass and Richmond are in even if they loose next week.

Delaware, OTOH is out if they loose to Villanova. Only 7 DI wins and back to back ending losses puts them out.

[BlueHen86]

I believe UMass and Richmond are in even if they loose next week.

Delaware, OTOH is out if they loose to Villanova. Only 7 DI wins and back to back ending losses puts them out.

I doubt that. They would still be 8-3 with quality wins over JMU and Navy.
Even the loses would be quality, no shame in losing to UNH, Richmond and Nova.
There aren't enough 9-2 or better team to keep them out, and UD will have a better resume than many of the 8-3 teams in the mix. Delaware might be in trouble if Hofstra beats UMass, since Hofstra will be 8-3 and might get in over the Hens if CAA only gets 3 bids, but if Umass wins I think the Hens are a lock

I agree with you that UMass and Richmond are in even if they lose.

[bigskyrocks]

i would have to say Alabama a&m gets in if they win and jackson st wins. they would be 9-2 and are geographically close to a mcneese or montana but still a big shot they dont get in but not a wide as people may think

[catbob]

MSU won't have 7 DI wins. :(

[LehighFan11]

I believe UMass and Richmond are in even if they loose next week.

Delaware, OTOH is out if they loose to Villanova. Only 7 DI wins and back to back ending losses puts them out.

Umass, Richmond and Delaware are locks

[nmatsen]

Ya, I am thinking a 8-3 EIU team gets in. The committee has a hard on for some reason over EIU. I even remember when they got the four seed five or six years back. We had to go to their place with the same record, we won our conference out right, they shared with EKU, our strength of schedule was significantly higher, our attendance was higher by 3-4 thousand people, we were in the same region, and we had a win over a I-A. You tell me now the committee doesn't have a hard on for Shanahan/Mudra/Romo U

[Syntax Error]

I posted this in another thread:

So EWU is the only at-large contender from the BSC/GWFC.
Massachusetts, Hofstra (<- those two play next week), Richmond, Delaware, James Madison from the CAA. One will win the AQ.
None from the BSO/IVY/MAAC/SLC.
SIU from the GFC.
Norfolk State from the MEAC.
Albany from the NEC.
EIU from the OVC.
Colgate from the PL.
Dayton and San Diego from the PFL.
Appalachian State and Georgia Southern from the SOCON.
Alabama A&M and Prairie View from the SWAC.

17 teams with less than four losses. One will be the CAA AQ, the other 16 are looking for an at-large bid.

[Houndawg]

Ya, I am thinking a 8-3 EIU team gets in. The committee has a hard on for some reason over EIU. I even remember when they got the four seed five or six years back. We had to go to their place with the same record, we won our conference out right, they shared with EKU, our strength of schedule was significantly higher, our attendance was higher by 3-4 thousand people, we were in the same region, and we had a win over a I-A. You tell me now the committee doesn't have a hard on for Shanahan/Mudra/Romo U

Yeah we had to go there, too. If they were any good they'd have stayed in the Gateway. Seeing Romo play in the NFL makes me real optimistic about Nick Hills chances. The boy got mojo I tells ya.

[BigApp]

The committee proved last year that they really want to get that second OVC team in regardless of how good they are.

yeah, and that didn't work out so hot. Both in the stands and the scoreboard.xreadx

[Syntax Error]

... Does the committe take a 7-4 CAA team over a possible 8-3 Colgate or Eastern Illinois club? What do you guys think? ...No. I also don't think four teams from the CAA are a lock.

Locks IMO:
AQ
Montana
CAA
UNI
DSU
EKU
Fordham
Wofford
McNeese State

At-Large
SIU
ASU

Then it will be two from the CAA (of UD/Richmond/UMass), Georgia Southern, EWU, EIU, and finally either AAMU/NSU/JMU

if they win and all those contingencies etc..... :)

[UMass922]

I doubt that. They would still be 8-3 with quality wins over JMU and Navy.
Even the loses would be quality, no shame in losing to UNH, Richmond and Nova.
There aren't enough 9-2 or better team to keep them out, and UD will have a better resume than many of the 8-3 teams in the mix. Delaware might be in trouble if Hofstra beats UMass, since Hofstra will be 8-3 and might get in over the Hens if CAA only gets 3 bids, but if Umass wins I think the Hens are a lock

I agree with you that UMass and Richmond are in even if they lose.

Agreed. Delaware is in now even with a loss. I just don't see enough teams that could possibly move ahead of Delaware to put them out.

[UMass922]

No, I think Eastern Illinois would be in over a 7-4 team. The committee proved last year that they really want to get that second OVC team in regardless of how good they are.

Agreed. I think EIU is pretty much a lock if they win next week.

[UMass922]

The Citadel can't reach 7 D-I wins.

[JmuSkinsfan]

If JMU wins next week, they are a lock at 8-3. The CAA will have 4 teams in....and right now it is looking like UMass, UD, Richmond and JMU. Even if Hofstra wins next week, they will be at 8-3, but with a much weaker schedule than JMU. I don't see it.

I think, if anything, this weekend's events in the SoCon make it possible for a 5th CAA team, since Elon is gone and GSU might be on the "hot seat" after losing to Furman. IMHO, the only teams ahead of JMU right now in the SoCon are Wofford and Appy

[KAUMASS]

Agreed. I think EIU is pretty much a lock if they win next week.


I disagree. How do you justify giving EIU a bid at 8-3 when their GPI is probably going to be around 40 if they win next week? They were #51 prior to Saturday. How do they get in over a 7-4 CAA team with a GPI in the top 20? The field should be filled out by the best teams, regardless of conference and how many teams from one conference are in.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

If JMU wins next week, they are a lock at 8-3. The CAA will have 4 teams in....and right now it is looking like UMass, UD, Richmond and JMU. Even if Hofstra wins next week, they will be at 8-3, but with a much weaker schedule than JMU. I don't see it.

I think, if anything, this weekend's events in the SoCon make it possible for a 5th CAA team, since Elon is gone and GSU might be on the "hot seat" after losing to Furman. IMHO, the only teams ahead of JMU right now in the SoCon are Wofford and Appy

JMU should be in with a win next week.xthumbsupx

Go Dukes

[KAUMASS]

The Citadel can't reach 7 D-I wins.

Thanks for the update, I will take them off the list.

[Syntax Error]

If JMU wins next week, they are a lock at 8-3. The CAA will have 4 teams in....and right now it is looking like UMass, UD, Richmond and JMU. Even if Hofstra wins next week, they will be at 8-3, but with a much weaker schedule than JMU. I don't see it.

I think, if anything, this weekend's events in the SoCon make it possible for a 5th CAA team, since Elon is gone and GSU might be on the "hot seat" after losing to Furman. IMHO, the only teams ahead of JMU right now in the SoCon are Wofford and AppyI don't understand the "lock." JMU beat a questionable UNH team (their only "quality" win) and lost their other two "good" games.

I see JMU and GSU nearly the same except GSU beat both Wofford and App St. and JMU lost to both Richmond and UD without playing UMass.

[Cincy App]

If JMU wins next week, they are a lock at 8-3. The CAA will have 4 teams in....and right now it is looking like UMass, UD, Richmond and JMU. Even if Hofstra wins next week, they will be at 8-3, but with a much weaker schedule than JMU. I don't see it.

I think, if anything, this weekend's events in the SoCon make it possible for a 5th CAA team, since Elon is gone and GSU might be on the "hot seat" after losing to Furman. IMHO, the only teams ahead of JMU right now in the SoCon are Wofford and Appy

I think that the CAA is a lock to get 4 teams in. JMU with a win next week and a Hofstra loss would be a lock. If Hofstra and JMU both win, then JMU should get in but I doubt JMU fans are really comfortable with decisions that the Playoff Selection Committee makes. JMU goes from "lock" to "probable" in that scenario, IMO. Also, Hofstra would be second in the North while JMU would be considered third in the South. JMU would get my vote but I don't count.

[UMass922]

If JMU wins next week, they are a lock at 8-3. The CAA will have 4 teams in....and right now it is looking like UMass, UD, Richmond and JMU. Even if Hofstra wins next week, they will be at 8-3, but with a much weaker schedule than JMU. I don't see it.

I think, if anything, this weekend's events in the SoCon make it possible for a 5th CAA team, since Elon is gone and GSU might be on the "hot seat" after losing to Furman. IMHO, the only teams ahead of JMU right now in the SoCon are Wofford and Appy

The SoCon is pretty straightforward at this point. Wofford and ASU are already locks, and Georgia Southern will be a lock with a win but out with a loss. I think GSU at 8-3 would be in line ahead of JMU at 8-3--more quality wins for the Eagles, IMHO (even though they'd have one less D-I win)--but I think both would get in anyway, so I don't think you'll have to worry about JMU getting bumped out by GSU.

I think Hofstra is in if they beat UMass. Hofstra's resume isn't that strong compared to the resumes of other CAA teams, but I think their 8-3--especially with a season-closing win over UMass--would (or should) put them in line ahead of Eastern Washington and Eastern Illinois. The only question is whether or not the committee would honor its stated guideline of taking the best eight at-large teams regardless of conference. If not, they'd likely take EWU or EIU over the Pride.

[BlueHen86]

If JMU wins next week, they are a lock at 8-3. The CAA will have 4 teams in....and right now it is looking like UMass, UD, Richmond and JMU. Even if Hofstra wins next week, they will be at 8-3, but with a much weaker schedule than JMU. I don't see it.

I think, if anything, this weekend's events in the SoCon make it possible for a 5th CAA team, since Elon is gone and GSU might be on the "hot seat" after losing to Furman. IMHO, the only teams ahead of JMU right now in the SoCon are Wofford and Appy

If Hofstra wins JMU could be in trouble, and so could Delaware if they lose. I think the CAA is a lock for three bids and four is a good bet. I don't think 5 bids is a good bet.

[UMass922]

I don't understand the "lock." JMU beat a questionable UNH team (their only "quality" win) and lost their other two "good" games.

The question is, are there eight teams that could possibly finish with better at-large resumes than an 8-3 JMU? I've tried looking, and I can't find that many.

[Syntax Error]

The question is, are their eight teams that could possibly finish with better at-large resumes than an 8-3 JMU? I've tried looking, and I can't find that many.I think I know why. "The only question is whether or not the committee would honor its stated guideline of taking the best eight at-large teams regardless of conference. If not, they'd likely take EWU or EIU over the Pride." You consider the mediocre wins in the CAA better than the wins by teams in other leagues. I don't think the committee has that predisposition. xtwocentsx

[joecooll6]

I disagree. How do you justify giving EIU a bid at 8-3 when their GPI is probably going to be around 40 if they win next week? They were #51 prior to Saturday. How do they get in over a 7-4 CAA team with a GPI in the top 20? The field should be filled out by the best teams, regardless of conference and how many teams from one conference are in.

I dont disagree, but the committee has shown that all it really cares about is wins and not who you get them against. EIU didnt have a win against a team with a winning record (maybe one 6-5 team) but they got in last year as a 4 loss team over UNI who had a superior GPI and wins over Illinois State and Youngstown State, both playoff teams and a solid SDSU team.

[BigApp]

does Presbyterian count as a DI win?

[URMite]

I think I know why. "The only question is whether or not the committee would honor its stated guideline of taking the best eight at-large teams regardless of conference. If not, they'd likely take EWU or EIU over the Pride." You consider the mediocre wins in the CAA better than the wins by teams in other leagues. I don't think the committee has that predisposition. xtwocentsx

There are no mediocre wins in the CAA:p :p Just kidding but you set me up for that one.xlolx

But honestly what are the wins over 6-5 or better FCS teams by EWU, EIU, JMU and Hofstra if all 3 are 8-3? I haven't looked it up yet.

[JMUSaxMRD]

The reason why JMU should be in with a win is because the FBS loss to North Carolina shouldn't really be counted that much against us. Like Mickey Matthew said before, if we scheduled a weak or even mediocre FCS team (or even division II like a lot of teams do) and won and gotten in the playoffs, then there is no point in playing FBS teams. Also our losses were 1 point to Richmond who is in the top 6 and a 3 point loss to Delaware. If we had a BAD loss, then I could see the argument for an 8-3 JMU team not making it, but we had an FBS loss, and lost by a total of 4 points in our two FCS losses. Just my outlook on things IF we win next week.

[appfan2008]

The reason why JMU should be in with a win is because the FBS loss to North Carolina shouldn't really be counted that much against us. Like Mickey Matthew said before, if we scheduled a weak or even mediocre FCS team (or even division II like a lot of teams do) and won and gotten in the playoffs, then there is no point in playing FBS teams. Also our losses were 1 point to Richmond who is in the top 6 and a 3 point loss to Delaware. If we had a BAD loss, then I could see the argument for an 8-3 JMU team not making it, but we had an FBS loss, and a lost by a total of 4 points in our two FCS losses. Just my outlook on things IF we win next week.

with that kind of reasoning... JMU is in IMO with a win

[McNeese_beat]

The reason why JMU should be in with a win is because the FBS loss to North Carolina shouldn't really be counted that much against us. Like Mickey Matthew said before, if we scheduled a weak or even mediocre FCS team (or even division II like a lot of teams do) and won and gotten in the playoffs, then there is no point in playing FBS teams. Also our losses were 1 point to Richmond who is in the top 6 and a 3 point loss to Delaware. If we had a BAD loss, then I could see the argument for an 8-3 JMU team not making it, but we had an FBS loss, and lost by a total of 4 points in our two FCS losses. Just my outlook on things IF we win next week.

The FBS game reasoning puts JMU in the same boat as EWU (with a loss to BYU), Norfolk State (loss to Rutgers) and Eastern Illinois (loss to Purdue). So those all offset each other. I think that when it comes to comparing 8-3 teams, you'll probably toss out the FBS losses and compare the other 10 games.

[Uncle Buck]

I'm not sure if Hofstra gets in with a win, but then again i can't wrap my head around all of these possibles. I guess it's possible, but blowing that game against N'eastern this week IMO killed us. 8-3 would be great, but UMass would be our strongest win with an opening win over Furman who has been playing better. Might not have the quality to compete with other 8-3's out there.

CAA IMO - Delaware, Richmond, UMass are in win or lose. JMU could be the fourth since i don't see Hofstra stopping UMass.

[BlueHen86]

I'm not sure if Hofstra gets in with a win, but then again i can't wrap my head around all of these possibles. I guess it's possible, but blowing that game against N'eastern this week IMO killed us. 8-3 would be great, but UMass would be our strongest win with an opening win over Furman who has been playing better. Might not have the quality to compete with other 8-3's out there.

CAA IMO - Delaware, Richmond, UMass are in win or lose. JMU could be the fourth since i don't see Hofstra stopping UMass.
That's a reasonable assessment.xthumbsupx

[appfan2008]

that is why it will be 4 from the caa

[Purple Knight]

Most all polls agree that the SoCon is the Strongest conference in FCS. Yet you guys are talking about 4 CAA teams getting in and probably only 2 SoCon teams making it. Is it because of how good they are? No, it's based on their record of 4 losses. This doesn't make any sense. But that's the way we do it in FCS.

[JMUSaxMRD]

Most all polls agree that the SoCon is the Strongest conference in FCS. Yet you guys are talking about 4 CAA teams getting in and probably only 2 SoCon teams making it. Is it because of how good they are? No, it's based on their record of 4 losses. This doesn't make any sense. But that's the way we do it in FCS.

Strongest maybe, but CAA is very close behind, its not like it is a dominantly strong conference.

[DetroitFlyer]

Do not be surprised to see a 10-1, 8-1 FCS, 6-1 PFL, 2007 PFL Champion Dayton receive a bid. San Diego, the second place PFL team by virtue of the head to head competition tie breaker is sitting at 9-1 going into the UC Davis game, a game the Toreros should win. Once USD wins, Dayton will have the only win this season over the 10-1 Toreros and a win over the PL champ and playoff paarticipant Fordham. You may not want to come to grips with this outcome, but the chips seem to be falling in the Flyers favor.

Given the jumble that has developed for what I'lll call the 16th spot, I have a feeling that the Flyers get in this year, much to the surprise to the Old Guard here.

Albany just might want to be picking up that sun block for the cross country trip to San Diego.

[USDFAN_55]

Do not be surprised to see a 10-1, 8-1 FCS, 6-1 PFL, 2007 PFL Champion Dayton receive a bid. San Diego, the second place PFL team by virtue of the head to head competition tie breaker is sitting at 9-1 going into the UC Davis game, a game the Toreros should win. Once USD wins, Dayton will have the only win this season over the 10-1 Toreros and a win over the PL champ and playoff paarticipant Fordham. You may not want to come to grips with this outcome, but the chips seem to be falling in the Flyers favor.

Given the jumble that has developed for what I'lll call the 16th spot, I have a feeling that the Flyers get in this year, much to the surprise to the Old Guard here.

Albany just might want to be picking up that sun block for the cross country trip to San Diego.

As much as I'd love to see a PFL team in the play-offs, I think your loss to Morehead State will overshadow your victory over San Diego.

[BigApp]

Do not be surprised to see...Dayton receive a bid.

DF, do you really want that? Do you really want to be in the playoffs?

[Khan4Cats]

Do not be surprised to see a 10-1, 8-1 FCS, 6-1 PFL, 2007 PFL Champion Dayton receive a bid. San Diego, the second place PFL team by virtue of the head to head competition tie breaker is sitting at 9-1 going into the UC Davis game, a game the Toreros should win. Once USD wins, Dayton will have the only win this season over the 10-1 Toreros and a win over the PL champ and playoff paarticipant Fordham. You may not want to come to grips with this outcome, but the chips seem to be falling in the Flyers favor.

Given the jumble that has developed for what I'lll call the 16th spot, I have a feeling that the Flyers get in this year, much to the surprise to the Old Guard here.

Albany just might want to be picking up that sun block for the cross country trip to San Diego.

Albany can keep their handwarmers ready. Dayton is not going to get the call. San Diego, despite their loss to Dayton, would seem a more likely pick with a win over Davis (giving them 9 D-I wins and two over scholarship teams), plus the 'name' player that an ESPN could hype, and they make a decent travel partner to go to Montana.

That being said, San Diego is NOT going to the playoffs. Colgate and Norfolk State, even a 5th CAA team would probably fall in line in front of them.

[Khan4Cats]

I disagree. How do you justify giving EIU a bid at 8-3 when their GPI is probably going to be around 40 if they win next week? They were #51 prior to Saturday. How do they get in over a 7-4 CAA team with a GPI in the top 20? The field should be filled out by the best teams, regardless of conference and how many teams from one conference are in.

An even better justification is that the NCAA can put Eastern Illinois on a bus and send them to either UNI or SIU. Makes a good regional match-up for the first round.
An Eastern Washington team will have to fly anywhere, and I'm not sure the committee likes to re-match teams from previous years (2005 EWU at UNI), so I'm pencilling them in (if they win) for a trip down to McNeese State.
Anyone sent to Montana will have to fly as well, so they will likely get a Colgate, Georgia Southern, or Hofstra type last qualifier).

Otherwise I see some (semi)-regional match-ups that work out well first round.

Delaware State at Delaware
JMU (with a win) at Appalachian State
Fordham at UMass
Eastern Kentucky at Southern Illinois
Richmond vs Wofford (don't know who would host, my guess is Richmond, but would the committee really send the SoCon champ on the road?)

I don't know who the 4th seed would be, I have it between SIU and Appy State, but I suppose a 9-2 Delaware or 9-2 UMass (as CAA champs) could get a bid as well. Southern Illinois at 10-1 makes an awfully convincing case though.

[alexale23]

Do you think its possible that JMU goes on the road to play RIchmond if they win against Towson. That would be a great game.

[BlueHen86]

Do you think its possible that JMU goes on the road to play RIchmond if they win against Towson. That would be a great game.
Not in the first round. Conference foes can't play each other in round 1.

[grayghost06]

Do you think its possible that JMU goes on the road to play RIchmond if they win against Towson. That would be a great game.

Can't happen till the second round. Tourney doesn't schedule conference mates till the second round...It would be geat if JMU and Richmond could meet up in the playoffs because regardless of where it is played JMU would have more fans there!

[alexale23]

so JMU will probably be traveling to Boone. ?That is going to be a tuff one

[JmuSkinsfan]

so JMU will probably be traveling to Boone. ?That is going to be a tuff one

At this point, considering what happened against UD and Richmond, I'd just be happy to be in the playoffs. But hey, who knows, if the chips fall into place this weekend, maybe JMU gets a home game? No, you're right, fat chance.

I think JMU @ Appy is inevitable. I don't see any other match-up that could work for either team. If JMU is traveling, either way, they are going to a tough team to beat...and the selection committee probably likes the prospect of a great match-up in JMU Appy. But looking ahead to next year, App. State comes to Harrisonburg to play JMU in week 2....does the committee look ahead and take that into consideration at all?

[ChickenMan]

Delaware, OTOH is out if they loose to Villanova. Only 7 DI wins and back to back ending losses puts them out.

In principal I agree.. but in reality.. it is very difficult to find eight other 8-3 FCS at large possibilities that would have better resume then an 8-3 Delaware.. but if you have think you have one.. please post it.

[alexale23]

Ap State is a great team but they have shown they are beatable this year losing to Wofford on the road and Georgia southern at home. Jmu will have to play mistake free football and take over the running game. This may be the game espn chooses to broadcast as it would be a matchup of recent former champs.

[ChickenMan]

In principal I agree.. but in reality.. it is very difficult to find eight other 8-3 FCS at large possibilities that would have better resume then an 8-3 Delaware.. but if you have think you have one.. please post it.

I think this post spports my point..


Here are the resumes of 10 teams if they were 8-3 (not all can be)

Team FBS >.500 FCS wins <.500 FCS losses Non-DI
ASU Michigan win NAU, Elon, El Cid wins none DII win
UD Navy Win JMU win none DII win
GSU Colorado St Win ASU, EL Cid win, none DII win
UR Vandy Loss, UD, JMU, UNH, VU wins, TU loss None
JMU UNC loss, UNH, Nova wins, None None
UMass BC loss UNH, Nova wins, URI loss None
EWU BYU loss, NAU, MSU wins, PSU loss DII win
EIU Purdue loss, JSU win, ISU loss DII win
Hofstra none, UMass win, NU loss, none
Colgate Albany, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh wins, none none

[UMass922]

The FBS game reasoning puts JMU in the same boat as EWU (with a loss to BYU), Norfolk State (loss to Rutgers) and Eastern Illinois (loss to Purdue). So those all offset each other. I think that when it comes to comparing 8-3 teams, you'll probably toss out the FBS losses and compare the other 10 games.

And when you look at those other ten games, you'll see that EWU and Norfolk State each have a sub-FCS win on their schedule, while JMU doesn't. So an 8-3 JMU would have 8 D-I wins, compared to 7 for those other two schools. As for Eastern Illinois, they would have 8 D-I wins at 8-3, but I fail to see how the resume would be judged stronger than JMU's.

[UMass922]

I think I know why. "The only question is whether or not the committee would honor its stated guideline of taking the best eight at-large teams regardless of conference. If not, they'd likely take EWU or EIU over the Pride." You consider the mediocre wins in the CAA better than the wins by teams in other leagues. I don't think the committee has that predisposition. xtwocentsx

Where did I say that I "consider the mediocre wins in the CAA better than the wins by teams in other leagues"? I don't think Hofstra has done much more than beat mediocre teams this year--though a win over UMass (which is what it would take for Hofstra to get to 8-3) would be better than any win than either EWU or EIU would have. Their 8 D-I wins would be one more than EWU would have. And I don't think I'm just being a homer when I say that Hofstra's mediocre CAA wins are still better than EIU's mediocre OVC wins. Plus, Hofstra has an out-of-conference win over a mediocre SoCon team (Furman), and I see nothing approaching that on EIU's schedule.

So what, exactly, is it that would put EWU and/or EIU in ahead of Hofstra should all three finish 8-3?

[McNeese_beat]

And when you look at those other ten games, you'll see that EWU and Norfolk State each have a sub-FCS win on their schedule, while JMU doesn't. So an 8-3 JMU would have 8 D-I wins, compared to 7 for those other two schools. As for Eastern Illinois, they would have 8 D-I wins at 8-3, but I fail to see how the resume would be judged stronger than JMU's.

JMU lost two games late in the season against playoff quality opponents. Assuming EWU wins against Weber to go 8-3, it will have 4 straight wins, including a mus-win on the road at a good N. Arizona team.

Plus EWU is second in its league and played all comers in the league (they didn't get to skip Montana like JMU got to skip UMass).

I don't think it will come down to EWU vs. JMU, but if it did, I'd be inclined to select EWU.
xtwocentsx

[UMass922]

Plus EWU is second in its league and played all comers in the league (they didn't get to skip Montana like JMU got to skip UMass).

Since the committee is supposed to select at-large teams regardless of conference affiliation, I fail to see how either of these points matters. EWU didn't play UMass either, so I fail to see how the fact that some years JMU does play UMass should count against the Dukes. And giving EWU credit for finishing higher in the Big Sky than JMU did in the CAA is silly, because it assumes that both conferences are of equal strength. Plus, there are more teams in the CAA than there are in the Big Sky. So finishing second in one conference does not necessarily indicate the same level of achievement as finishing second in the other.

As I've said before, if the committee wants to promote conference balance in the playoffs, then it should write that explicitly into its selection criteria. As the criteria are currently written, I see nothing to suggest that where a team finishes in its conference is a factor.

[T-Dogg]

I think that regardless of how the selection committee picks the at-large spots, there will clearly be some quality teams sitting idle come Nov. 24th.

Maybe this last weekend of the season will make things clearer and we will not have to hope the selection group will do the right thing!!

[ChickenMan]

I don't think it will come down to EWU vs. JMU, but if it did, I'd be inclined to select EWU.
xtwocentsx

JMU is in if they finish 8-3.. EWU is also in if they finish 8-3.

my projected at-large bids.. if they all finish 8-3 or better..

ASU
GSU
SIU
UMass/Richmond (which ever doesn't get the CAA auto)
Delaware
JMU
EWU
EIU

[JmuSkinsfan]

JMU lost two games late in the season against playoff quality opponents. Assuming EWU wins against Weber to go 8-3, it will have 4 straight wins, including a mus-win on the road at a good N. Arizona team.

Plus EWU is second in its league and played all comers in the league (they didn't get to skip Montana like JMU got to skip UMass).

I don't think it will come down to EWU vs. JMU, but if it did, I'd be inclined to select EWU.
xtwocentsx


These types of comments are realllllllly starting to get annoying. What do you want CAA teams to do? Play 11 conference games and no OOC?? The best way to think about the CAA is two conferences (North and South) who cross over and play three teams from the other section.

And for those who say JMU, UD and UR should play Umass, Hofstra and UNH every year....I say this: It is impossible to predict who the front-runners will be at the point when the schedules and opponents are picked...so the CAA alternates with a home and home with each team in the opposite division every 4 years.

Next year JMU will play Hofstra, UMass, and Maine in addition to UR, UD, Towson, W&M and Villanova. But what if UMass and Hofstra have an off year, and say UNH and Northeastern are the two best teams in the CAA North next year....you all will be on here saying JMU should have played UNH and Northeastern....so really, the CAA does the best it can for a 12 team league.

And you act like CAA teams schedule cupcakes for OOC. JMU played a Coastal team that was ranked pre-season and ACC North Carolina...and did NOT schedule a DII...two years ago we played AT App. State

Next year we travel to Duke, host App. State and play @ VMI.

[danefan]

I would hope that VMI game is a home & home contract. Why would you guys go to VMI?

[saluki_in_ohio]

JMU is in if they finish 8-3.. EWU is also in if they finish 8-3.

my projected at-large bids.. if they all finish 8-3 or better..

ASU
GSU
UMass/Richmond (which ever doesn't get the CAA auto)
Delaware
JMU
EWU
EIU
Colgate

Let me get this straight, SIU at 10-1 does not merit an at-large bid?

xrolleyesx

[JmuSkinsfan]

I would hope that VMI game is a home & home contract. Why would you guys go to VMI?

Yeah. It is home and home. I know we played there last year, and played at JMU this year. So I don't know if we play them EVERY year, but i know that we play a lot because its a bit of a "rivalry" and a convenient geographic match-up. I'm sure an older JMU fan who remembers what the schedule was every year prior to 2005 could confirm it or correct me.

[danefan]

Yeah. It is home and home. I know we played there last year, and played at JMU this year. So I don't know if we play them EVERY year, but i know that we play a lot because its a bit of a "rivalry" and a convenient geographic match-up. I'm sure an older JMU fan who remembers what the schedule was every year prior to 2005 could confirm it or correct me.

I didn't realize you guys played so frequently. Always nice to have a geographic rival that you can beat up on every year.xsmiley_wix

[ChickenMan]

Let me get this straight, SIU at 10-1 does not merit an at-large bid?

xrolleyesx


Sorry.. I somehow missed them... xoopsx

corrected it...

[nmatsen]

Do not be surprised to see a 10-1, 8-1 FCS, 6-1 PFL, 2007 PFL Champion Dayton receive a bid. San Diego, the second place PFL team by virtue of the head to head competition tie breaker is sitting at 9-1 going into the UC Davis game, a game the Toreros should win. Once USD wins, Dayton will have the only win this season over the 10-1 Toreros and a win over the PL champ and playoff paarticipant Fordham. You may not want to come to grips with this outcome, but the chips seem to be falling in the Flyers favor.

Given the jumble that has developed for what I'lll call the 16th spot, I have a feeling that the Flyers get in this year, much to the surprise to the Old Guard here.

Albany just might want to be picking up that sun block for the cross country trip to San Diego.

I am all for Dayton getting in the playoffs. Why not send them to the dome in the first round and hand them their arse. Then maybe they will just drop the issue the way all of the San Diego people did when they lost.

[URMite]

I didn't realize you guys played so frequently. Always nice to have a geographic rival that you can beat up on every year.xsmiley_wix

Yes, VMI, along with William & Mary and Richmond were the 3 small colleges in VA and have stuck together in football since at least WWII. I believe they were all in the SoCon together for years. JMU then joined that group as they developed in the 70s. All other FCS programs in VA have only developed very recently.

Richmond to William Mary 50 miles
JMU to VMI 60 miles
Richmond to VMI or JMU 130 miles

VMI's inability sustain any success in FCS is the only things that has slowed the rivalries among these four.

[McNeese_beat]

Since the committee is supposed to select at-large teams regardless of conference affiliation, I fail to see how either of these points matters. EWU didn't play UMass either, so I fail to see how the fact that some years JMU does play UMass should count against the Dukes. And giving EWU credit for finishing higher in the Big Sky than JMU did in the CAA is silly, because it assumes that both conferences are of equal strength. Plus, there are more teams in the CAA than there are in the Big Sky. So finishing second in one conference does not necessarily indicate the same level of achievement as finishing second in the other.

As I've said before, if the committee wants to promote conference balance in the playoffs, then it should write that explicitly into its selection criteria. As the criteria are currently written, I see nothing to suggest that where a team finishes in its conference is a factor.

The UMass point leads to why EWU has a slight edge on strength of schedule. With UMass off the schedule, JMU's opponents have a .460 winning percentage against competition other than JMU. EWU's D-I opponents have a winning percentage of .472 against opponents other that EWU.

The other point is one based on reality. When things are close, they are more likely to pick the team that did well in conference play, so long as both teams are in "power" conferences. It is very hard to gauge how strong the CAA is because the league has played exactly 0 non-conference games against playoff-caliber FCS competition.

The one advantage JMU has over EWU is that Montana Western game. Will the committee penalize EWU for having an NAIA when it is so very difficult for far western schools to complete an all-Division I schedule?

[McNeese_beat]

JMU is in if they finish 8-3.. EWU is also in if they finish 8-3.

my projected at-large bids.. if they all finish 8-3 or better..

ASU
GSU
SIU
UMass/Richmond (which ever doesn't get the CAA auto)
Delaware
JMU
EWU
EIU

Now you have two OVC vs. Gateway games (EIU at SIU and EKU at UNI), a Big Sky at Southland (EWU at MSU); a Patriot at CAA (Fordham at UMass), a MEAC at CAA (Delaware State at Delaware), and you pick 'em, match em with Montana, Wofford, App., GSU, Richmond and JMU....
Interesting that I see you are basically predicting a GSU win over Colorado State...not too big of a stretch there...

[KAUMASS]

I've seen quite a few posts regarding who should get in with regards to JMU and E. Washington and Eastern Illinois.

First off, all of these teams have to win Saturday. If they don't win, and if Georgia Southern doesn't win, there will 1 or 2 possible 7-4 teams in the dance this year.

Also in this mix, if Hofstra beats UMass, Hofstra is now 8-3 with a signature win over UMass.

If JMU, E. Washington, E. Illinois, Hofstra and Georgia Southern win, someone is sitting home.

Current Power rankings of the above mentioned teams, adjusted(should be close) for a win on Saturday:

Georgia Southern-15
E. Illinois-39
E. Washington-24
JMU-13
Hofstra-14


How does the committee justify sending E. Washington or E. Illinois over JMU and Hofstra? I don't see it. The committee can and has done crazy stuff in years past, but I can't see them with any justification regardless of conference affaliation or regional travel to explain why. They would be lit up by AD's across the country.

Homering aside from the CAA, if E. Washington or E. Illinois had a better GPI ranking than JMU or Hofstra, I would have no problem with them getting the invite. I want the best 8 teams available, period.

Let's see what happens on Saturday first. You can drive yourself nuts with the possibilities.

[gsugt1]

If GSU wins on Saturday our resume is great. In the last 5 games we will be 4-1. Wins on the road against a 1a team, the #6 and #10 teams in FCS.

[KAUMASS]

If GSU wins on Saturday our resume is great. In the last 5 games we will be 4-1. Wins on the road against a 1a team, the #6 and #10 teams in FCS.


You guys are in if you win on Saturday..Good Luck and another possible game with App. State!!

[Cincy App]

I've seen quite a few posts regarding who should get in with regards to JMU and E. Washington and Eastern Illinois.

First off, all of these teams have to win Saturday. If they don't win, and if Georgia Southern doesn't win, there will 1 or 2 possible 7-4 teams in the dance this year.

Also in this mix, if Hofstra beats UMass, Hofstra is now 8-3 with a signature win over UMass.

If JMU, E. Washington, E. Illinois, Hofstra and Georgia Southern win, someone is sitting home.

Current Power rankings of the above mentioned teams, adjusted(should be close) for a win on Saturday:

Georgia Southern-15
E. Illinois-39
E. Washington-24
JMU-13
Hofstra-14


How does the committee justify sending E. Washington or E. Illinois over JMU and Hofstra? I don't see it. The committee can and has done crazy stuff in years past, but I can't see them with any justification regardless of conference affaliation or regional travel to explain why. They would be lit up by AD's across the country.

Homering aside from the CAA, if E. Washington or E. Illinois had a better GPI ranking than JMU or Hofstra, I would have no problem with them getting the invite. I want the best 8 teams available, period.

Let's see what happens on Saturday first. You can drive yourself nuts with the possibilities.

The Committee has always tried to balance the field regionally. A second place team in the Big Sky will always make the playoff field if its record is 8-3 or better. Last year, 7-4 even got the Big Sky an at-large. EWU is a lock if they win on Saturday.

I'm not as excited about a second place team from the OVC in the tourney but I expect that EIU will be in the field in they win on Saturday also. JMU should still be in good shape with a win on Saturday. Hofstra's resume is really not that good and will likely stay home unless they beat UMass and JMU loses to Towson. The CAA will not get 5 teams in the tourney. It is just not going to happen. The Committee will take a second place team from another conference before it takes a fifth from the CAA.

[KAUMASS]

The Committee has always tried to balance the field regionally. A second place team in the Big Sky will always make the playoff field if its record is 8-3 or better. Last year, 7-4 even got the Big Sky an at-large. EWU is a lock if they win on Saturday.

I'm not as excited about a second place team from the OVC in the tourney but I expect that EIU will be in the field in they win on Saturday also. JMU should still be in good shape with a win on Saturday. Hofstra's resume is really not that good and will likely stay home unless they beat UMass and JMU loses to Towson. The CAA will not get 5 teams in the tourney. It is just not going to happen. The Committee will take a second place team from another conference before it takes a fifth from the CAA.

Montana St. was about 18th in the power rankings last year at 7-4, and that is why they got in. That 5th team from the CAA will have a power ranking of anywhere from 15-22. E.Illinois at 8-3 would be 40th or so in power rankings, I don't think they get in at 8-3. The committee cannot justify that.(obviously they can do what they want)
I agree E. Washington gets in at 8-3 with a power ranking of about 25, but there 7 D1 wins puts them in peril without a huge signature win, especially if Hofstra beats UMass. Second place in the big sky should be enough though if UMass beats Hofstra. I don't have a problem with E. Washington at 8-3 bumping a 5th CAA team at 7-4, as they are very close in power rankings.

I think a 5th CAA team gets in if E. Washington & G.Southern and E. Illinois all lose. There isn't anyone else who qualifies with a decent power ranking. Colgate possibly if they win this weekend, as they would be 8-3 with a power ranking of about 30th. Let's see what the weekend brings.

[Seven Would Be Nice]

You guys are in if you win on Saturday..Good Luck and another possible game with App. State!!

Hopefully the committee would be nice and not schedule an in conference team 1st round. But knowing our luck with 1st round playoff picks in our last few appearances, we would be playing app on the road followed by wofford the next week. xsmhx

[McNeese_beat]

Montana St. was about 18th in the power rankings last year at 7-4, and that is why they got in. That 5th team from the CAA will have a power ranking of anywhere from 15-22. E.Illinois at 8-3 would be 40th or so in power rankings, I don't think they get in at 8-3. The committee cannot justify that.(obviously they can do what they want)
I agree E. Washington gets in at 8-3 with a power ranking of about 25, but there 7 D1 wins puts them in peril without a huge signature win, especially if Hofstra beats UMass. Second place in the big sky should be enough though if UMass beats Hofstra. I don't have a problem with E. Washington at 8-3 bumping a 5th CAA team at 7-4, as they are very close in power rankings.

I think a 5th CAA team gets in if E. Washington & G.Southern and E. Illinois all lose. There isn't anyone else who qualifies with a decent power ranking. Colgate possibly if they win this weekend, as they would be 8-3 with a power ranking of about 30th. Let's see what the weekend brings.

The previous poster was correct about the regionalization of the field. Although their guidelines don't say to do it, the business acumen of the committee (modern ADs are usually as much businessman as they are administrator) could motivate them to try different things.

For example, I would not be shocked to see the committee do something as bold as create an Alabama A&M-Eastern Kentucky first round matchup. I'm not predicting this by any stretch, but from a business standpoint, what happens is you allow a conference and a school exposure to a deeper playoff run and the excitement that comes with it, thus spreading your product to areas that previously had not been exposed, at least for a long time. By the same token, sending Furman to Montana State last year was designed, in part, to spread the popularity of the subdivision west of the Mississippi. At least that's part of the reason. Why else would a 7-4 team that doesn't draw well get a home game?

[Tribe4SF]

The previous poster was correct about the regionalization of the field. Although their guidelines don't say to do it, the business acumen of the committee (modern ADs are usually as much businessman as they are administrator) could motivate them to try different things.

For example, I would not be shocked to see the committee do something as bold as create an Alabama A&M-Eastern Kentucky first round matchup. I'm not predicting this by any stretch, but from a business standpoint, what happens is you allow a conference and a school exposure to a deeper playoff run and the excitement that comes with it, thus spreading your product to areas that previously had not been exposed, at least for a long time. By the same token, sending Furman to Montana State last year was designed, in part, to spread the popularity of the subdivision west of the Mississippi. At least that's part of the reason. Why else would a 7-4 team that doesn't draw well get a home game?

Need to check your facts. Montana State averages over 14,000 per game, well above Furman. Odds are they submitted a higher bid.

Much of your reasoning in this thread is purely fanciful. The committee has established priorities, and their selections have been pretty much representative of those priorities. That's why the GPI has been such a good indicator for at-large selections (heavy weight to strength of schedule).

The set-up this year will likely strain the committee's willingness to stick to its priorities.

[BestOfBreed]

Need to check your facts. Montana State averages over 14,000 per game, well above Furman. Odds are they submitted a higher bid.

Much of your reasoning in this thread is purely fanciful. The committee has established priorities, and their selections have been pretty much representative of those priorities. That's why the GPI has been such a good indicator for at-large selections (heavy weight to strength of schedule).

The set-up this year will likely strain the committee's willingness to stick to its priorities.

When did 316 people become "well above"?

2006 FCS Attendance Rankings
Rank School G Attendance Average
18. Montana St. 7 89,309 12,758
20. Furman 6 74,649 12,442

They definitely submitted a higher bid than Furman.

[kalm]

I've seen quite a few posts regarding who should get in with regards to JMU and E. Washington and Eastern Illinois.

First off, all of these teams have to win Saturday. If they don't win, and if Georgia Southern doesn't win, there will 1 or 2 possible 7-4 teams in the dance this year.

Also in this mix, if Hofstra beats UMass, Hofstra is now 8-3 with a signature win over UMass.

If JMU, E. Washington, E. Illinois, Hofstra and Georgia Southern win, someone is sitting home.

Current Power rankings of the above mentioned teams, adjusted(should be close) for a win on Saturday:

Georgia Southern-15
E. Illinois-39
E. Washington-24
JMU-13
Hofstra-14


How does the committee justify sending E. Washington or E. Illinois over JMU and Hofstra? I don't see it. The committee can and has done crazy stuff in years past, but I can't see them with any justification regardless of conference affaliation or regional travel to explain why. They would be lit up by AD's across the country.

Homering aside from the CAA, if E. Washington or E. Illinois had a better GPI ranking than JMU or Hofstra, I would have no problem with them getting the invite. I want the best 8 teams available, period.

Let's see what happens on Saturday first. You can drive yourself nuts with the possibilities.

The CAA is a better conference right now than the Big Sky, but not that much better. A 3-7 Northeastern squad in the last two weeks beat UNH and Hofstra. Yet earlier in the year they were blown out by UC Davis who E-dub beat quite handily. Eastern has had a chance to win every game it's played with the exception of BYU. If we beat Weber this week we will have finished the regular season winning four in a row and 5 out of the last six. We belong in the mix. I'm going to quit referring to it as east coast bias and start regarding the lack of love for the BSC as east coast ignorance. xthumbsupx

[UncleSam]

I'm going to quit referring to it as east coast bias and start regarding the lack of love for the BSC as east coast ignorance. xthumbsupx


But we are NOT ignorant of the fact that the Big Sky, minus Montana, has performed very poorly in the playoffs, I've posted this before , but apparently it needs to be seen again. The conference playoff comparison over the past 10 seasons.







Big Sky (minus Montana)

PSU - 0-1
MSU - 1-3
NAU - 1-4
EWU - 3-3
ISU - 0-0
Weber St - 0-0
Sac St - 0-0

total - 5-11



by comparison the playoff records of the CAA (A10) minus it's best playoff peformer (Delaware), the SoCon minus it's best (GSU) and the Gateway minus it's best (YSU) since 1996:

CAA

UMass - 8-3
UNH - 3-3
Maine - 2-2
Hofstra - 2-4
JMU - 4-2
Richmond - 2-3
Villanova - 3-3
W&M - 3-3
Towson - 0-0
URI - 0-0

total - 27-23


SoCon

ASU - 12-5
Furman - 7-8
Wofford - 2-1
Elon - 0-0
Citadel - 0-0
WCU - 0-0
UTC - 0-0

total - 21-14



Gateway

UNI - 8-4
WKU - 7-5
ISU - 2-2
SIU - 1-3
WIU - 5-6
Missouri St - 0-0
Indiana St - 0-0


total - 23-20


and yet you continue wonder why we question the strength of the Big Sky??? xrolleyesx

[eagle1]

The Big Sky is definitely not just Montana and EWU, Montana State, and NAU have all earned wins recently in the playoffs. I guarantee that EWU will surprise some teams on the road in the playoffs. The CAA is a tough conference but for you guys to argue that 4-5 teams should get in is rediculous. Last time I checked it was the FCS playoffs not the CAA playoffs. I would love to see EWU to on the road and play one of these 3rd to 4th place CAA teams but we will most likely be playing the Gateway or Southland on the road. Go Eagles!!!

[Tribe4SF]

When did 316 people become "well above"?

2006 FCS Attendance Rankings
Rank School G Attendance Average
18. Montana St. 7 89,309 12,758
20. Furman 6 74,649 12,442

They definitely submitted a higher bid than Furman.

Since never. I was going off this years attendance, and Montana State is about 2,000 ahead of Furman. To me that's well above. The 2006 figures are skewed because they include the playoff game for MSU, which of course, had lower attendance. Excluding that game, MSU averaged around 13,300 last year.

The point was that Furman traveled because they were outbid.

[UncleSam]

The Big Sky is definitely not just Montana and EWU, Montana State, and NAU have all earned wins recently in the playoffs. I guarantee that EWU will surprise some teams on the road in the playoffs. The CAA is a tough conference but for you guys to argue that 4-5 teams should get in is rediculous. Last time I checked it was the FCS playoffs not the CAA playoffs. I would love to see EWU to on the road and play one of these 3rd to 4th place CAA teams but we will most likely be playing the Gateway or Southland on the road. Go Eagles!!!

I'm not arquing to keep an 8-3 EWU out, I'd put them in over an 8-3 Hofstra, I'm just attempting to explain WHY the credibility of the Big Sky (minus Montana) is often in question.

[URMite]

The Big Sky is definitely not just Montana and EWU, Montana State, and NAU have all earned wins recently in the playoffs. I guarantee that EWU will surprise some teams on the road in the playoffs. The CAA is a tough conference but for you guys to argue that 4-5 teams should get in is rediculous. Last time I checked it was the FCS playoffs not the CAA playoffs. I would love to see EWU to on the road and play one of these 3rd to 4th place CAA teams but we will most likely be playing the Gateway or Southland on the road. Go Eagles!!!

I think if you look at the BSC over the last 3 or 4 years instead of 10, you start to see improvement with EWU leading the way. I do think you guys deserve to be in the field, maybe right before or right after our 4th...But if you think it would be an easy road game against our 3rd or 4th (currently Delaware & JMU), I'm sure you would the error in that logic rather quickly. The PSU loss is going to hurt you some because of their record, no matter how good they are.

[AZGrizFan]

I think if you look at the BSC over the last 3 or 4 years instead of 10, you start to see improvement with EWU leading the way. I do think you guys deserve to be in the field, maybe right before or right after our 4th...But if you think it would be an easy road game against our 3rd or 4th (currently Delaware & JMU), I'm sure you would the error in that logic rather quickly. The PSU loss is going to hurt you some because of their record, no matter how good they are.

How does UMass's loss to URI look? xeyebrowx

[JmuSkinsfan]

How does UMass's loss to URI look? xeyebrowx

I don't usually defend UMass, or make excuses for other teams but my own, but that URI game was played in a hurricane. almost literally.

[AZGrizFan]

I don't usually defend UMass, or make excuses for other teams but my own, but that URI game was played in a hurricane. almost literally.

Did only UMass play in the hurricane? Or did URI have to play in it too? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[McNeese_beat]

Since never. I was going off this years attendance, and Montana State is about 2,000 ahead of Furman. To me that's well above. The 2006 figures are skewed because they include the playoff game for MSU, which of course, had lower attendance. Excluding that game, MSU averaged around 13,300 last year.

The point was that Furman traveled because they were outbid.

Why is this exchange limited to Furman? Was the committee obligated to match up Montana State with Furman? Certainly one would hope that Montana State's inclusion in the playoffs had nothing to do with their bid.

And if GPI is an accurate predictor, at No. 22 at the end of the regular season, Montana State should have been left home behind Portland State (GPI #10), Northern Iowa (GPI #12) and Wofford (GPI #19).

[URMite]

Did only UMass play in the hurricane? Or did URI have to play in it too? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

Do you really not believe that adverse conditions that don't allow for any type of normal play, don't help the chances of the underdog?

It is the same as the old "four corners" in basketball. If you decrease the opportunities for both teams to make a good play, then you increase the chance that luck can be enough to win.

But UMass did have an opportunity to give themselves a better chance of winning and didn't take it (short FG in the 3rd). They can be blamed for not making the right decision.

[KAUMASS]

I'm not arquing to keep an 8-3 EWU out, I'd put them in over an 8-3 Hofstra, I'm just attempting to explain WHY the credibility of the Big Sky (minus Montana) is often in question.

Lets say this happens:
If Hofstra is 8-3 with a power ranking of 17and 8 D1 wins and
E. Washington is 8-3 with a power ranking of 25, with only 7 D1 wins , and the CAA already has 4 teams in.

E. Washington should get in over Hofstra? I don't see it.

I have no slight against the big sky and I do not homer the CAA. The Big Sky plays good football. I just want the committee to pick the best 8 teams available at large, regardless of conference or region or for cost control.

How would you Big Sky guys like it if Colgate at 8-3 got in over E. Washington at 8-3?

[JmuSkinsfan]

Did only UMass play in the hurricane? Or did URI have to play in it too? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

I agree with what was just said above and that was essentially my point. URI is a triple-threat option offense that rarely throws the ball. Granted, the option can become trickier when rain and wind are added, but UMass game was forced to become 1-dimensional....thus making them much easier to stop. URI simply played the game they are used to playing.

[kalm]

[QUOTE=KAUMASS;736915]Lets say this happens:
If Hofstra is 8-3 with a power ranking of 17and 8 D1 wins and
E. Washington is 8-3 with a power ranking of 25, with only 7 D1 wins , and the CAA already has 4 teams in.

E. Washington should get in over Hofstra? I don't see it.

I have no slight against the big sky and I do not homer the CAA. The Big Sky plays good football. I just want the committee to pick the best 8 teams available at large, regardless of conference or region or for cost control.

QUOTE]

Then they will pick Eastern, who was one point worse than the #2 seed in their own house. xthumbsupx