Where We Stand

[UNHWildCats]

Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (10-0)
Northern Iowa (10-0)
Delaware State (9-1)
Eastern Kentucky (8-2)
Fordham (8-2)
McNeese State (10-0)
Wofford (8-3)

Are At-Large Eligible
Massachusetts (8-2)
Delaware (8-2)
Hofstra (7-3)
Richmond (8-2)
Southern Illinois (9-1)
Albany (7-3)
Eastern Illinois (7-3)
Colgate (7-3)
San Diego (9-1)
Dayton (9-1)
Alabama A&M (8-2)
Appalachian State (8-2)
James Madison (7-3)

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
New Hampshire (6-4)
Villanova (6-4)
Norfolk State (7-3)
South Carolina State (6-4)
Hampton (6-4)
Jacksonville State (6-4)
Holy Cross (6-4)
Lafayette (6-4)
Georgia Southern (7-3)
Eastern Washington (7-3)

[GreatAppSt]

4 loss teams are on the OUTS no question this season.

[UNHWildCats]

*Game today not yet complete

Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (9-0)*
Northern Iowa (9-0)*
Delaware State (9-1)
Eastern Kentucky (8-2)
Fordham (8-2)
McNeese State (9-0)*

Are At-Large Eligible
Massachusetts (8-2)
Delaware (8-2)
Hofstra (7-3)
Richmond (8-2)
Southern Illinois (8-1)*
Albany (7-3)
Eastern Illinois (7-3)
Colgate (7-3)
San Diego (9-1)
Dayton (9-1)
Wofford (8-3)

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
James Madison (6-3)*
New Hampshire (6-4)
Villanova (6-4)
Norfolk State (7-3)
South Carolina State (6-4)
Hampton (6-4)
Jacksonville State (6-4)
Holy Cross (6-4)
Lafayette (6-4)
Georgia Southern (7-2)*
Appalachian State (7-2)*
Alabama A&M (7-2)*

Need Two Wins To Be At-Large Eligible
Eastern Washington (6-3)*
Gardner-Webb (5-4)*
Cal-Poly (5-4)*

Will update all the teams with * as the games finish.

If the teams bolded above lose, there will be a couple 4 loss teams in, cause I still think a 7-4 UNH or a 7-4 JMU or even a 7-4 Eastern Illinois gets in before San Diego, Albany, Dayton

[skinny_uncle]

SIU won and probably locked up a bid.

Elon, Norfolk and UNH probably bit the dust today with losses.

[TheValleyRaider]

Are At-Large Eligible
Massachusetts (8-2)
Delaware (8-2)
Hofstra (7-3)
Richmond (8-2)
Southern Illinois (8-1)*
Albany (7-3)
Eastern Illinois (7-3)
Colgate (7-3)
San Diego (9-1)
Dayton (9-1)
Wofford (8-3)

So you're saying there's a chance? xeekx

[UNHWildCats]

SIU won and probably locked up a bid.

Elon, Norfolk and UNH probably bit the dust today with losses.

Elon cant get 7 Div I wins so they are done.

[skinny_uncle]

Holy Cross lost so you can eliminate them.

[UNHWildCats]

Holy Cross lost so you can eliminate them.


They can still become playoff eligible even if there chances to make the playoffs are practically zero.

[skinny_uncle]

They can still become playoff eligible even if there chances to make the playoffs are practically zero.
I don't see how. Fordham has the PL locked up since the win the tiebreaker against either HC or Colgate by virtue of head to head wins even if they should manage to lose next week. The best Colgate or HC can do is 7-4 which I doubt cuts it this year.

[JMU Duke Dog]

I don't see how. Fordham has the PL locked up since the win the tiebreaker against either HC or Colgate by virtue of head to head wins even if they should manage to lose next week. The best Colgate or HC can do is 7-4 which I doubt cuts it this year.

Colgate can finish 8-3 with a win next weekend. If Holy Cross wins next weekend then it will be 7-4 making them technically playoff eligible but not likely to be selected.

[TheValleyRaider]

I don't see how. Fordham has the PL locked up since the win the tiebreaker against either HC or Colgate by virtue of head to head wins even if they should manage to lose next week. The best Colgate or HC can do is 7-4 which I doubt cuts it this year.

Cuts it for the postseason, probably not.

Eligibility, yes. HC, if they win next week, would have 7 D-I wins and therefore be quite eligible for the playoffs.

Colgate and Holy Cross play in Worcester next Saturday, so Colgate can still finish 8-3 xnodx

[Mr. Tiger]

Alabama A&M is eligible now at 8-2.

[UNHWildCats]

Georgia Southern is down by 9 with 11 mins to go, if they lose there in some trouble. The face Colorado State next week, granted its a bad Colo State but FBS nonetheless, they would have to win that game to be playoff eligible.

[UNHWildCats]

If Georgia Southern loses tonite, Wofford clicnhes the AQ for the SoCon.

[mistersykes]

Mark it down. Wofford wins the Socon AQ. Congrats to the Terriers!

[skinny_uncle]

Cuts it for the postseason, probably not.

Eligibility, yes. HC, if they win next week, would have 7 D-I wins and therefore be quite eligible for the playoffs.

Colgate and Holy Cross play in Worcester next Saturday, so Colgate can still finish 8-3 xnodx
My bad on Colgate. Getting to the age where the brain goes south on occasion.

[Hansel]

Poly is 6-3

and currently winning :0

[DSUHornet]

WoW, so if all win next week, SC State, Hampton, AND Norfolk will be at-large eligible?

side-bar: i know all four will not go to the playoffs, i'm not that niave!

[URMite]

Alabama A&M is eligible now at 8-2.

Where do they stand as to not needing to play in SWAC championship game?

[Mr. Tiger]

Where do they stand as to not needing to play in SWAC championship game?

If Jackson State beats Alcorn State next weekend, Alabama A&M will NOT be in the SWAC Championship game.

[UNHWildCats]

Sorry guys, i fell asleep, but everythings updated now.

If you look at the above list its clear a couple 7-4 teams could find themselves fortunate that they may still hear there names called next sunday.

I would say 13 of the teams that are qualified are practical locks no matter what. Others even with good records (San Dioego, Albany, Dayton) could still find themselves passed over by a few 4 loss teams who have a few quality wins.

This isnt intended as a homer call, but IF Georgia Southern loses to Colorado State and fails to get seven D I wins and if Eastern Washingto loses also failing to get 7 Div I wins, UNH could sneak in at 7-4 with the last spot with having had some very good wins (@Marshall, @ Hofstra, vs Delaware)

[UMass922]

Would they actually take the 3rd place team from the SWAC over some of the 2nd place teams from bigger conferences?

I think AAMU would be a last resort, but the way the field of at-large contenders is rapidly thinning, they could sneak in. If teams like Eastern Washington, Eastern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Hofstra, and Colgate all lose next week, that could very well open the door. I doubt it will happen, though. It's also worth keeping in mind that AAMU plays a tough Prairie View A&M team next week, and they'll have to win that game to keep themselves in the discussion. It's a very loseable game for them.

[Mr. Tiger]

Would they actually take the 3rd place team from the SWAC over some of the 2nd place teams from bigger conferences?

When was the last time the SWAC had the 3rd place team in?

Actually, they would be tied with Jackson State. But we beat them in overtime 43-40 last week so we would win the East division.

[UMass922]

I would say 13 of the teams that are qualified are practical locks no matter what.

Who's your thirteenth team? I can only come up with twelve:

Montana
Delaware
Massachusetts
Richmond
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Fordham
Wofford
Appalachian State
McNeese State

All of these teams are safely in, I think, even with a loss next week. Every one else, as far as I can tell, still has work to do.

[Mr. Tiger]

I think AAMU would be a last resort, but the way the field of at-large contenders is rapidly thinning, they could sneak in. If teams like Eastern Washington, Eastern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Hofstra, and Colgate all lose next week, that could very well open the door. I doubt it will happen, though. It's also worth keeping in mind that AAMU plays a tough Prairie View A&M team next week, and they'll have to win that game to keep themselves in the discussion. It's a very loseable game for them.

Here's what I have.....I don't believe Georgia Southern and Hofstra will win next week.

At-larges
CAA..Delaware, Richmond, James Madison, New Hampshire (possible)
Southern....App State
Big Sky....Eastern Washington
Gateway...Southern Illinois
OVC...Eastern Illinois
Patriot...Colgate (possible)
SWAC....Alabama A&M (possible)

So it all depends if the CAA gets 5 teams in the playoffs and if Colgate beats Holy Cross.

[UMass922]

Here's what I have.....I don't believe Georgia Southern and Hofstra will win next week.

At-larges
CAA..Delaware, Richmond, James Madison, New Hampshire (possible)
Southern....App State
Big Sky....Eastern Washington
Gateway...Southern Illinois
OVC...Eastern Illinois
Patriot...Colgate (possible)
SWAC....Alabama A&M (possible)

So it all depends if the CAA gets 5 teams in the playoffs and if Colgate beats Holy Cross.

I think James Madison (vs. Towson) and Eastern Illinois (vs. Samford) are pretty good bets to win next week, and should be locks if they do. Eastern Washington will be favored to beat Weber State, though I don't think that's quite as safe a bet as the aforementioned two. So let's put them in the "maybe" pile (keep in mind that EWU is done for sure with a loss, since they only have 6 D-I wins to this point). Colgate's game against Holy Cross is probably a toss-up, so let's put Colgate in the "maybe" pile as well. Georgia Southern needs to beat FBS Colorado State to reach 7 D-I wins; if they pull it off they win for sure, but if they lose (and they're probably likely to), they're done. So we can say they're unlikely. Hofstra needs to beat UMass to get in, and if they do, they'll be a lock (if they lose, their 7-4 would be a very weak one, so I'll say they'd be done). I'm not as sure about the outcome of that game as you are, so I'll put Hofstra somewhere between "maybe" and "unlikely." New Hampshire is a pretty safe bet to beat Maine, and if they do they will have a very strong 7-4.

So these are the teams that I'd say are definitely ahead of Alabama A&M in line for the final four spots if they all win out (assuming the twelve I mentioned earlier are locks):

James Madison
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Washington
Hofstra
Colgate
New Hampshire
Georgia Southern

So AAMU (if they beat Prairie View) would need at least four of those teams to lose to possibly move into the last slot. It's certainly a plausible outcome (even if not a highly likely one). Even should it happen, though: would a 7-4 JMU or even a 7-4 Hofstra still get in ahead of AAMU? I wouldn't be surprised. How about an 8-3 Norfolk State with 7 D-I wins? Very possible as well. Then there's the mid-majors: Dayton and Albany each have a win over playoff-bound Fordham and could each finish with 8 D-I wins. I honestly can't say whether or not the committee would take one of those teams over a SWAC team, since dipping into the SWAC (since '99, anyway) and the mid-majors for at-large berths is unprecedented. At that point we'd be in uncharted waters.

So I'll say that AAMU has a plausible shot--better than a long-shot--but I won't predict they get in. It will be very interesting, though, to see how all this shakes out next week.

[TheValleyRaider]

RE: Colorado State

Saw the Rams when the came to play TCU this year. Actually, they weren't too bad (although playing the Frogs this year, not sure what that really means). 2nd best team to play in Ft. Worth this year, at least. Unfortunately for them, that puts them ahead of Baylor, New Mexico and Southern Methodist, and behind a Utah team that was significantly better. GSU should have a decent shot, but their weak record belies a team that should be tough to beat, especially up in the thin air of Colorado

[UMass922]

RE: Colorado State

Saw the Rams when the came to play TCU this year. Actually, they weren't too bad (although playing the Frogs this year, not sure what that really means). 2nd best team to play in Ft. Worth this year, at least. Unfortunately for them, that puts them ahead of Baylor, New Mexico and Southern Methodist, and behind a Utah team that was significantly better. GSU should have a decent shot, but their weak record belies a team that should be tough to beat, especially up in the thin air of Colorado

I just looked over Colorado State's schedule, and noticed that four of their losses are by six points or less. Two more were by twelve or less. And their three blowout losses were all to very good teams: Air Force, Utah, and BYU. So they don't look as beatable as their record might imply. I won't say I'll be shocked if Georgia Southern wins, but I don't think it's likely.

[AZGrizFan]

I just looked over Colorado State's schedule, and noticed that four of their losses are by six points or less. Two more were by twelve or less. And their three blowout losses were all to very good teams: Air Force, Utah, and BYU. So they don't look as beatable as their record might imply. I won't say I'll be shocked if Georgia Southern wins, but I don't think it's likely.

If it helps you, the Griz just beat their basketball team by about 40. xnodx

[Houndawg]

I think James Madison (vs. Towson) and Eastern Illinois (vs. Samford) are pretty good bets to win next week, and should be locks if they do. Eastern Washington will be favored to beat Weber State, though I don't think that's quite as safe a bet as the aforementioned two. So let's put them in the "maybe" pile (keep in mind that EWU is done for sure with a loss, since they only have 6 D-I wins to this point). Colgate's game against Holy Cross is probably a toss-up, so let's put Colgate in the "maybe" pile as well. Georgia Southern needs to beat FBS Colorado State to reach 7 D-I wins; if they pull it off they win for sure, but if they lose (and they're probably likely to), they're done. So we can say they're unlikely. Hofstra needs to beat UMass to get in, and if they do, they'll be a lock (if they lose, their 7-4 would be a very weak one, so I'll say they'd be done). I'm not as sure about the outcome of that game as you are, so I'll put Hofstra somewhere between "maybe" and "unlikely." New Hampshire is a pretty safe bet to beat Maine, and if they do they will have a very strong 7-4.

So these are the teams that I'd say are definitely ahead of Alabama A&M in line for the final four spots if they all win out (assuming the twelve I mentioned earlier are locks):

James Madison
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Washington
Hofstra
Colgate
New Hampshire
Georgia Southern

So AAMU (if they beat Prairie View) would need at least four of those teams to lose to possibly move into the last slot. It's certainly a plausible outcome (even if not a highly likely one). Even should it happen, though: would a 7-4 JMU or even a 7-4 Hofstra still get in ahead of AAMU? I wouldn't be surprised. How about an 8-3 Norfolk State with 7 D-I wins? Very possible as well. Then there's the mid-majors: Dayton and Albany each have a win over playoff-bound Fordham and could each finish with 8 D-I wins. I honestly can't say whether or not the committee would take one of those teams over a SWAC team, since dipping into the SWAC (since '99, anyway) and the mid-majors for at-large berths is unprecedented. At that point we'd be in uncharted waters.

So I'll say that AAMU has a plausible shot--better than a long-shot--but I won't predict they get in. It will be very interesting, though, to see how all this shakes out next week.

If any 4 loss teams like Hofstra or JMU have a case, then YSU would also deserve a look, I think.

[FCS Preview]

If any 4 loss teams like Hofstra or JMU have a case, then YSU would also deserve a look, I think.

But YSU only has 6 wins (that count).

[UNHWildCats]

If any 4 loss teams like Hofstra or JMU have a case, then YSU would also deserve a look, I think.


But YSU only has 6 wins (that count).


Correct YSU cant get 7 Div I wins, so YSU has no shot.

[URMite]

I see it like this:

<4 losses even if they lose

SIU
ASU
Delaware
(UR/UMass) nonAQ

<4 losses if they win & from a major conference

GSU
JMU
EWU
HU

<4 losses if they win

Alabama A&M
EIU
Colgate
Norfolk St

NonAQ Conference 4 losses possibly 7 DI wins
UNH
Dayton
San Diego
Albany

Any others? I haven't looked at all the 4 loss teams yet.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

UNH was in a must win situation and that did not happen. Yesterday's results help JMU in my opinion, but still must win next week and hope for the best.

Go Dukes

[rcny46]

I think that UNH has a chance of grabbing a final spot in the field IF they can beat UMaine.Of course they would need some help from CSU,and UMass.Even an Eastern Washington win could leave an opening for a 7-4 team.I have a feeling that a 7-4 UNH would get in over an 8-3 team from the Patriot League,but an 8-3 EIU would most likely get in ahead of the Wildcats( I realize the fact that they would probably be the fifth team in from the CAA could be a problem).At any rate I'm looking forward to next week's action and the selection show.Should be interesting.

BTW,does anyone know the time and network for that selection special next Sunday?

[TheValleyRaider]

I think that UNH has a chance of grabbing a final spot in the field IF they can beat UMaine.Of course they would need some help from CSU,and UMass.Even an Eastern Washington win could leave an opening for a 7-4 team.I have a feeling that a 7-4 UNH would get in over an 8-3 team from the Patriot League,but an 8-3 EIU would most likely get in ahead of the Wildcats (I realize the fact that they would probably be the fifth team in from the CAA could be a problem).At any rate I'm looking forward to next week's action and the selection show.Should be interesting.

I think because they'd be a 5th CAA team, a 7-4 UNH would be behind both Colgate and EIU for an at-large. Plus, the committee has shown it likes to take teams from conferences like the OVC and PL that win 8-9 games before taking 7 win sides from conferences like the CAA and SoCon


BTW,does anyone know the time and network for that selection special next Sunday?

3:30 PM Eastern on ESPNU

I believe there'll be an episode of CSN Waves covering the show live, so if you don't get ESPNU, they'll be announcing the bracket as ESPN reveals it xpeacex

[UNHWildCats]

I think because they'd be a 5th CAA team, a 7-4 UNH would be behind both Colgate and EIU for an at-large. Plus, the committee has shown it likes to take teams from conferences like the OVC and PL that win 8-9 games before taking 7 win sides from conferences like the CAA and SoCon



3:30 PM Eastern on ESPNU

I believe there'll be an episode of CSN Waves covering the show live, so if you don't get ESPNU, they'll be announcing the bracket as ESPN reveals it xpeacex

The fact thyat UNH has wi9ns at Marshall, at Hofstra and vs Delaware. All very solid wins and the fact that this is it for Santos could easily slide them in ahead of Colgate. If Colgate loses to Holy Cross, I dont think Colgate hjas any chance to get in ahead of UNH, If Colgate beats Holy Cross, there chances will be better, but certainly not guaranteed.

[KAUMASS]

New Hampshire gets the nod if:

1. They beat Maine.
2. UMass beats Hofstra.
3. Georgia Southern loses to Colorado State.
4. E. Washinton loses to Weber State.
5. E. Illinois loses to Samford.
6. Colgate loses to Holy Cross.

If #'s 1-4 happen, I think 7-4 New Hampshire is seriously considered over a 8-3 Colgate or 8-3 E. Illinois. UNH's power ratings will be better. No disrespect to Colgate or E. Illinois, but New Hampshire has some strong wins in their favor.

Good luck to New Hampshire!

[BlueHen86]

New Hampshire gets the nod if:

1. They beat Maine.
2. UMass beats Hofstra.
3. Georgia Southern loses to Colorado State.
4. E. Washinton loses to Weber State.
5. E. Illinois loses to Samford.
6. Colgate loses to Holy Cross.

If #'s 1-4 happen, I think 7-4 New Hampshire is seriously considered over a 8-3 Colgate or 8-3 E. Illinois. UNH's power ratings will be better. No disrespect to Colgate or E. Illinois, but New Hampshire has some strong wins in their favor.

Good luck to New Hampshire!
UNH may also need JMU to lose to Towson. I think 8-3 Colgate or 8-3 E. Illinois would get the nod over a 5th CAA team at 7-4.

[TheValleyRaider]

The fact thyat UNH has wi9ns at Marshall, at Hofstra and vs Delaware. All very solid wins and the fact that this is it for Santos could easily slide them in ahead of Colgate. If Colgate loses to Holy Cross, I dont think Colgate has any chance to get in ahead of UNH, If Colgate beats Holy Cross, there chances will be better, but certainly not guaranteed.

That Hofstra win doesn't look overly impressive right now, and would look even less so if the Pride lose to UMass on Saturday. Plus, again, if UNH is CAA #5, they're exceedingly likely to be on the outside to the runner-up from the OVC or Patriot League.

[UNHWildCats]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (10-0) - losing 14-13
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle

Are At-Large Eligible
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5
Delaware (8-2) - winning 3-0
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 14-7
Eastern Illinois (7-3) - winning 24-10
James Madison (7-3) - winning 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - later
New Hampshire (7-4) - won
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - later
Dayton (9-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20


Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Villanova (6-4) - losing 3-0
South Carolina State (6-4) - winning 34-7
Jacksonville State (6-4) - winning 25-10
Lafayette (6-4) - winning 21-17
Georgia Southern (7-3) - losing 35-10
Eastern Washington (7-3) - later

[danefan]

no big deal, but Dayton is idle today.

[UNHWildCats]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (10-0) - winning 27-14
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle

Are At-Large Eligible
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5
Delaware (8-2) - winning 10-3
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 21-17
Eastern Illinois (7-3) - winning 31-10
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - tied 0-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 21-17
Dayton (9-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - winning 51-7


Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Villanova (6-4) - losing 10-3
Jacksonville State (6-4) - losing 32-25
Georgia Southern (7-3) - losing 42-34
Eastern Washington (7-3) - tied 0-0

[siugrad99]

UNH your picture is disturbing

[UNHWildCats]

UNH your picture is disturbing
so

[siugrad99]

sorry just callin a freak a freak I guess. Pick up many chicks with that mug? Oh wait I mean.... forget it

[UNHWildCats]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (10-0) - winning 27-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle

Are At-Large Eligible
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5 CAA Co-Champ, Auto TBD
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20 CAA Co-Champ, Auto TBD
Delaware (8-2) - winning 10-3
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 21-17
Eastern Illinois (7-3) - winning 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 7-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 28-24
Dayton (9-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Villanova (6-4) - losing 10-3
Eastern Washington (7-3) - winning 7-0

[Petrie Dish]

Thanks for doing this UNH. xthumbsupx

[89Hen]

Isn't Dayton 10-1?

[UNHWildCats]

Isn't Dayton 10-1?
yup... sorry :p

[UNHWildCats]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (11-0) - won 41-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5


Are At-Large Eligible
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Delaware (8-2) - tied 10-10
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 27-17
Eastern Illinois (8-3) - won 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 14-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 35-24
Dayton (10-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Villanova (6-4) - tied 10-10
Eastern Washington (7-3) - tied 7-7

[WrenFGun]

Eastern Illinois knocks off Samford, probably locks a spot up, leaving two open..EWU in a close one with Weber at this point. The Rain looks like its playing on this one, though EWU sounds like the better team right now.

[hebmskebm]

is 8-3 Norfolk really belong in the "likely out" group? they seem to have a shot if things play out the right way.

[UNHWildCats]

is 8-3 Norfolk really belong in the "likely out" group? they seem to have a shot if things play out the right way.
Its just my assesment, I think a 7-4 UNH with its SOS and wins at Marshall, vs Delaware at Hofstra would beat them out... but I will change them to black representing my who knows teams.

[RationalGriz]

I an not taking anything away from the schedule that UNH played, but I just find it really difficult to think that a 5th place team from the CAA with 4 losses would get in ahead of of 2 or 3 place team from another conference with 3 or fewer losses. UNH will be penalized for being in a good conference and not rewarded

[WrenFGun]

Well, I think our belief, here, is that the committee isn't supposed to look at division alignment as reason to pick one over the other, particularly when it doesn't concern the autobid.

[WMTribe90]

If EWU wins they obviously lock up a spot. If Alabama A&M beats PV than they likely lock up the 16th spot. If A&M or EWU loses I do believe UNH should be next in line. The have the best resume of any 7-4 team. Albany, San Diego, NSU and Dayton should be given serious consideration, but their SOS just isn't there. If the committe follows the selection guidlines, and ignores conference affiliation and picks the best eight teams (as determined by their resume), I think UNH may just sneak in if A&M or EWU fall. This could get very interesting.

[danefan]

If EWU wins they obviously lock up a spot. If Alabama A&M beats PV than they likely lock up the 16th spot. If A&M or EWU loses I do believe UNH should be next in line. The have the best resume of any 7-4 team. Albany, San Diego, and Dayton should be given serious consideration, but their SOS just isn't there. If the committe follows the selection guidlines, and ignores conference affiliation and picks the best eight teams (as determined by their resume), I think UNH may just sneak in if A&M or EWU fall.

AA&M is far from a lock if they win.

They'll have a lower power rating than Albany and have a weaker SOS and Albany has a win over a playoff team.

[LehighFan11]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (11-0) - won 41-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5


Are At-Large Eligible
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Delaware (8-2) - tied 10-10
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 27-17
Eastern Illinois (8-3) - won 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 14-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 35-24
Dayton (10-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Villanova (6-4) - tied 10-10
Eastern Washington (7-3) - tied 7-7

I like UNH and EWU from that group assuming EWU wins.

[gsugt1]

The have the best resume of any 7-4 team. .
What is thier resume ? I ask because we are 7-4 with wins over 2 top 10 teams on the road. One of our 4 losses are to a 1a team too. Just curious . Thanks

[danefan]

What is thier resume ? I ask because we are 7-4 with wins over 2 top 10 teams on the road. One of our 4 losses are to a 1a team too. Just curious . Thanks

People aren't discussing GSU because they don't have 7 DI wins. I think that's a killer for ya. It's not a hard and fast rule, but its pretty solid to keep a team out.

[gsugt1]

People aren't discussing GSU because they don't have 7 DI wins. I think that's a killer for ya. It's not a hard and fast rule, but its pretty solid to keep a team out.


I understand. Again really just looking for any reason for hope. How does a 1a loss affect you ? Does UNH have a 1a loss or win ?

[danefan]

FBS win over Marshall on the road.

[WrenFGun]

Nova looks like they may pull the upset against Delaware. I think Delaware is still in, and I think UNH is probably in over NOVA, in light of the win over Marshall, but Nova has no bad losses and a better conference record.

[danefan]

The one intangible that we can't take into account is the Committee's willingness to take 5 CAA teams. There are so many factors here. Great season!

[tribe_pride]

Nova looks like they may pull the upset against Delaware. I think Delaware is still in, and I think UNH is probably in over NOVA, in light of the win over Marshall, but Nova has no bad losses and a better conference record.

ASSUMING NOVA WINS:

It will be close between Nova and UNH (others may be involved too but I am just trying to distinguish these 2 teams).

Nova had Delaware and Hofstra as good wins. UNH had good wins versus Marshall, Delaware and Hofstra.

UNH had a bad loss versus Northeastern. Nova had no bad losses.

UNH 4-4 in conference while Nova is 5-3.

[WrenFGun]

I feel UNH's win and Santos would be the difference over the two, though both had tough schedules.

[LehighFan11]

why not both of them if they are both deserving...assuming EWU losses

[danefan]

why not both of them if they are both deserving...assuming EWU losses

Absolutely no way in heck there will be 6 CAA teams.

I agree with the sentiment....if you are deserving you should be in. But I don't think it's reality.

[UNHWildCats]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (11-0) - won 41-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5


Are At-Large Eligible
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Delaware (8-3) - lost 16-10
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 30-17
Eastern Illinois (8-3) - won 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 21-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Villanova (7-4) - won 16-10
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 35-31
Dayton (10-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Eastern Washington (7-3) - winning 14-10

[Baldy]

Its just my assesment, I think a 7-4 UNH with its SOS and wins at Marshall, vs Delaware at Hofstra would beat them out... but I will change them to black representing my who knows teams.
Uhhh, 7-4 with 4 conference losses, and only finishing .500 in your conference, there is no "who knows", UNH isn't getting in, sorry.

[danefan]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (11-0) - won 41-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5


Are At-Large Eligible
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Delaware (8-3) - lost 16-10
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 30-17
Eastern Illinois (8-3) - won 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 21-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Villanova (7-4) - won 16-10
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 35-31
Dayton (10-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Eastern Washington (7-3) - winning 14-10


Fixed it for ya!xsmiley_wix xthumbsupx

[WrenFGun]

Well, assuming EWU loses is a BIG assumption, in listening to this game. A&M is down 21, so that's good..if EWU loses, I can't imagine six..but then again, UNH and 'NOVA would be the best two teams not in.

[Grizaholic17]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (11-0) - won 41-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - later
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5


Are At-Large Eligible
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Delaware (8-3) - lost 16-10
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (8-2) - winning 30-17
Eastern Illinois (8-3) - won 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 21-0
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Villanova (7-4) - won 16-10
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-1) - losing 35-31
Dayton (10-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Eastern Washington (7-3) - winning 14-10

Wow, hard decision for the 16th spot. EWU is for sure in if they win (as stated many times). The last spot would likely go to UNH based on past and SOS.

[danefan]

Well, assuming EWU loses is a BIG assumption, in listening to this game. A&M is down 21, so that's good..if EWU loses, I can't imagine six..but then again, UNH and 'NOVA would be the best two teams not in.

And therein lies this year's Woofed team.xthumbsupx

[BestOfBreed]

Uhhh, 7-4 with 4 conference losses, and only finishing .500 in your conference, there is no "who knows", UNH isn't getting in, sorry.

I agree. 4 conference losses means enjoy the turkey.

[WrenFGun]

It's such a strange dilemma. EWU is trailing 16-14 currently with 755 in the third...

Villanova is currently tied in 19th in the GPI and will surely rise, they have no bad losses and they have quality wins over Delaware and Hofstra. UNH is 16th in the GPI with those same quality wins plus one over Marshall. Nova is 5-3 in the CAA South, UNH is 4-4 in the CAA North...Nova would be the FOURTH team from the South, UNH would be the SECOND team from the North...I think that distinction matters, as the matchups differed slightly. With that said, Nova doesn't have a bad loss..I think Santos/Marshall would be the deciding factor between the two teams..(not to mention, UNH beat both UD and Hofstra when they were undefeated, and their NU loss can be largely attributed to the weather..I have no idea if that matters)

[WrenFGun]

I'm not sure 4 conference losses is a deciding factor in a year that's as messed up as this one. EWU leads 21-16 on a quick TD.

[rcny46]

Uhhh, 7-4 with 4 conference losses, and only finishing .500 in your conference, there is no "who knows", UNH isn't getting in, sorry.

Don't agree that assumption is written in stone.Montana St.made it in last year with the same record,and a loss to a D-II.If EWU wins,that would leave a spot.Who do you think should get it?

[UNHWildCats]

IN

LIKELY IN

WIN AND LIKELY IN

LIKELY OUT


Have Clinched Auto Bids
Montana (11-0) - won 41-20
Northern Iowa (10-0) - winning 20-3
Delaware State (10-1) - won 29-13
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) - won 38-24
Fordham (8-3) - lost 38-24
McNeese State (10-0) - later
Wofford (8-3) - Idle
Massachusetts (9-2) - won 27-5


Are At-Large Eligible
Richmond (9-2) - won 31-20
Delaware (8-3) - lost 16-10
Southern Illinois (10-1) - won 45-27
Appalachian State (9-2) - won 37-17
Eastern Illinois (8-3) - won 33-17
James Madison (8-3) - won 23-13

Alabama A&M (8-2) - losing 30-7
New Hampshire (7-4) - won 39-14
Norfolk State (8-3) - won 23-20
Villanova (7-4) - won 16-10
Colgate (7-4) - lost 27-20
San Diego (9-2) - lost 49-49
Dayton (10-1) - Idle
Holy Cross (7-4) - won 27-20
Hofstra (7-4) - lost 27-5
Albany (8-3) - won 49-14
Lafayette (7-4) - won 21-17
South Carolina State (7-4) - won 51-7

Need One Win To Be At-Large Eligible
Eastern Washington (7-3) - winning 28-16

[danefan]

Travis,
Why don't you consider Albany as much in consideration as Norfolk? I just assume you don't by your color assignments.