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November 9th, 2007, 08:26 AM
Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:
The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 16, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. -The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. UC Davis, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are in their transitional phase from Division II football and are not playoff eligible.; - The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid. The MAAC, NEC and PFL are also eligible for the playoffs, but do not have an automatic bid.
Below, take a look at the prospects of I-AA teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the field as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.
1. Northern Iowa (9-0, 5-0 Gateway)
The Games: Indiana State (11/18), Southern Utah (11/18)
Outlook: AQ The Panthers are sitting pretty! With a strong conference and undefeated record thus far, there is little doubt they will be a top 4 seed, assuming they win out. The #1 seed belongs to them, even with a loss they get a top 2 seed.
2. Montana (9-0, 6-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/10), at Montana State (11/18)
Outlook: AQ The Grizzlies sit in this position due to their unbeaten record and past history. The #2 seed is theirs, just win out, (that may be a tougher task) One loss puts them in a tough position, with the conference down, they could slide right out of the top 4 seeds depending on other teams waiting.
3. McNeese State (9-0, 5-0 Southland)
The Games: Northwestern State (11/10), Central Arkansas (11/18)
Outlook: AQ The Cowboys are in as the Southland Conference representative. If they loose, the Cowboys could possibly fall out of the top 4 seeds, and a tough contest in their last game will have definite implications on seeding.
4. Delaware (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: Richmond (11/10), at Villanova (11/18)
Outlook: IN The Blue Hens are back in the drivers seat leading the CAA towards the playoffs. The bad news is that this is a dangerous spot, two tough games will put Delaware to the test! Even with 2 losses to end the season, a win over Navy and tough conference puts them in the field. Win out and you get a top 4 seed.
5. Southern Illinois (8-1, 4-1 Gateway)
The Games: Illinois State (11/10), at Hampton (11/18)
Outlook: IN With their only loss to top ranked Northern Iowa the Salukis are in great shape! If they can win out and have Delaware loss, they would be in consideration for a top 4 seed.
6. Appalachian State (7-2, 3-2 SoCon)
The Games: Western Carolina (11/10), UTC (11/18)
Outlook: A 9-2 regular season record looks to be a lock based on the remaining schedule. Forget about the SoCon AQ spot, the Mountaineers are in great shape and will be watching the S. Ill, Delaware and McNeese St scores, if two of those three loose, ASU will get a top 4 seed. Regardless, Mountaineers will definitely host a first round game, look for them to be televised on ESPN the Friday after Thanksgiving, count on it!
7. Fordham (8-2, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: Bucknell (11/17)
Outlook: AQ The Patriot title is wrapped up and that puts Fordham in the playoffs. A likely matchup with a CAA team looks to be a lock.
8. Cal Poly (6-3, 2-1 Great West)
The Games: at NDSt (11/10), Iona (11/17)
Outlook: Cal Poly is a lock with wins in their last two games, if they can beat NDST, there is no denying this team, therefore they rank high in potential.
9. Massachusetts (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire (11/10), at Hofstra (11/18)
Outlook: UMass was cruising along until last weekend and now things aren’t looking so good. However winning out will put UMass back in thick of things, only two straight losses keeps them out of this post season! Losses by multiple teams could get them back in the talks of a top 4 seed.
10. Delaware State (8-1, 7-0 MEAC)
The Games: Norfolk State (11/10), Howard (11/17)
Outlook: The Hornets need a win Saturday to capture the autobid. A loss could take them out of playoff consideration all together. But a still in talks if they finish with two losses.
11. Elon (6-3, 4-2 SoCon)
The Games: Norfolk State (11/10), Howard (11/17)
Outlook: The SoCon’s surprise team of the year, now finds themselves in a must win situation! Win the last two and you are in, a loss will keep you home for the holidays, for the Phoenix, the playoffs begin Saturday.
12.Georgia Southern (7-2, 4-2 SoCon)
The Games: Furman (11/10), at Colorado State (11/17)
Outlook: Let’s all say it together, THE EAGLES ARE BACK! At 8-3 with a great resume will definitely put GSU in the post season. However they have two very difficult games remaining, a win in either game puts them in, no doubt. Win the last two and losses by ASU, McNeese, Delaware, and S. ILL will position GSU for a top 4 seed. Either way GSU would host a first round game.
13. Richmond (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware (11/10), William & Mary (11/17)
Outlook: The Spiders are on the rise, but this weekend will determine how far they have come. Either way an 8-3 record I believes gets them in the post season.
14. Eastern Kentucky (7-2, 6-0 OVC)
The Games: at Austin Peay (11/10), Tenn Tech (11/17)
Outlook: The Colonels have been the best of the OVC, but a loss this weekend will cause another conference mess. A win this weekend gets them the Autobid, a loss and their post season future could be in jeopardy. A win also makes the rest of the country breathe a sigh of relief.
15. Wofford (7-3, 4-2 SoCon)
The Games: at UTC (11/10)
Outlook: The Terriers continue to lurk. They could win the Autobid, but even at 8-3 they find themselves hoping for losses around the country. A strong conference and a win over ASU gets them in at 8-3.
16. Eastern Washington (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Northern Arizona (11/10), Weber State (11/17)
Outlook: EW must win their final two games to stay in the hunt, NAU will be a tough test. A down year for the Big Sky puts them on the bubble. EW has to hope that Cal Poly losses this weekend to better position yet another team from out West.
17. Hofstra (7-2, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at Northeastern (11/10), UMass (11/17)
Outlook: Hofstra made a statement last week and kept their name on the post season list. But the Pride must find a way to win their last two games to ensure a spot in the post season.
18. New Hampshire (6-3, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: at UMass (11/10), Maine (11/17)
Outlook: The Wildcats in a must win situation to finish the season. Last week’s loss may have doomed their post season hopes. Bottom line UNH will need to dig deep and beat a strong UMass team to keep hope alive.
19. James Madison (6-3, 4-2 A-10)
The Games: at William & Mary (11/10), Towson (11/17)
Outlook: The Dukes probably have to be worried at this point. First they must win out and they need for others to loose. With so many good teams from the CAA, JMU appears to be at the bottom of that list.
20. Norfolk State (7-2, 6-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Delaware State (11/10), Winston Salem State (11/17)
Outlook: Win the next two and Autobid is yours, a loss and you are out of playoff consideration!
21. Eastern Illinois (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: at Jacksonville State (11/10), Samford (11/17)
Outlook: The Panthers will earn strong consideration if they can win out, a Autobid is still possible but not likely.
22. Holy Cross (6-3, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: Layfayette (11/10), Colgate (11/17)
Outlook: Wins in the final two games gives strong consideration, the Colgate game will eliminate either from playoff talks, however a few losses around the country and we may see two from the Patriot League. This is beginning to look like Layfayette two years ago, so don’t be surprised to see history repeat itself and perhaps a trip to Boone!
23. Colgate (6-3, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Georgetown (11/10), at Holy Cross (11/17)
Outlook: See above
24. Alabama A&M (7-2, 5-2 SWAC)
The Games: at Alcorn State (11/10), at Praire View (11/17)
Outlook: Must win out and worthy of talking about, but their inability to win their own conference will likely end post season consideration.
25. Jacksonville State (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Eastern Illinois (11/10), at SE MO St (11/17)
Outlook: Lots of options still remaining for Jacksonville State, but right now they need to win out, anything less puts them out of consideration.
26. Austin Peay (6-3, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: EKU (11/10), at Murray State (11/17)
Outlook: The key here is to win out and hope for a bag full of upsets, not impossible, but not likely!
Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible matchups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.
Automatic Bids: Patriot: Fordham, A10: Delaware, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: McNeese State, Southern: Elon, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: Delaware State, OVC: Eastern Kentucky.
At-large: Appalachian State, Colgate, Eastern Washington, Georgia Southern, Hofstra, Illinois State, UMass, Richmond, Southern Illinois, and Wofford.
Seeds: Northern Iowa, Montana, McNeese State, Delaware.
Bracket I: E.Washington at No. 1 Northern Iowa; Fordham at Massachussetts;
Delaware State at No. 4 Delaware; Colgate at Appalachian State.
Bracket II: Hofstra at No. 2 Montana; EKU at S. Illinois;
Elon at No. 3 McNeese State; Richmond at Georgia Southern.
The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 16, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. -The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. UC Davis, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are in their transitional phase from Division II football and are not playoff eligible.; - The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid. The MAAC, NEC and PFL are also eligible for the playoffs, but do not have an automatic bid.
Below, take a look at the prospects of I-AA teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the field as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.
1. Northern Iowa (9-0, 5-0 Gateway)
The Games: Indiana State (11/18), Southern Utah (11/18)
Outlook: AQ The Panthers are sitting pretty! With a strong conference and undefeated record thus far, there is little doubt they will be a top 4 seed, assuming they win out. The #1 seed belongs to them, even with a loss they get a top 2 seed.
2. Montana (9-0, 6-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/10), at Montana State (11/18)
Outlook: AQ The Grizzlies sit in this position due to their unbeaten record and past history. The #2 seed is theirs, just win out, (that may be a tougher task) One loss puts them in a tough position, with the conference down, they could slide right out of the top 4 seeds depending on other teams waiting.
3. McNeese State (9-0, 5-0 Southland)
The Games: Northwestern State (11/10), Central Arkansas (11/18)
Outlook: AQ The Cowboys are in as the Southland Conference representative. If they loose, the Cowboys could possibly fall out of the top 4 seeds, and a tough contest in their last game will have definite implications on seeding.
4. Delaware (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: Richmond (11/10), at Villanova (11/18)
Outlook: IN The Blue Hens are back in the drivers seat leading the CAA towards the playoffs. The bad news is that this is a dangerous spot, two tough games will put Delaware to the test! Even with 2 losses to end the season, a win over Navy and tough conference puts them in the field. Win out and you get a top 4 seed.
5. Southern Illinois (8-1, 4-1 Gateway)
The Games: Illinois State (11/10), at Hampton (11/18)
Outlook: IN With their only loss to top ranked Northern Iowa the Salukis are in great shape! If they can win out and have Delaware loss, they would be in consideration for a top 4 seed.
6. Appalachian State (7-2, 3-2 SoCon)
The Games: Western Carolina (11/10), UTC (11/18)
Outlook: A 9-2 regular season record looks to be a lock based on the remaining schedule. Forget about the SoCon AQ spot, the Mountaineers are in great shape and will be watching the S. Ill, Delaware and McNeese St scores, if two of those three loose, ASU will get a top 4 seed. Regardless, Mountaineers will definitely host a first round game, look for them to be televised on ESPN the Friday after Thanksgiving, count on it!
7. Fordham (8-2, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: Bucknell (11/17)
Outlook: AQ The Patriot title is wrapped up and that puts Fordham in the playoffs. A likely matchup with a CAA team looks to be a lock.
8. Cal Poly (6-3, 2-1 Great West)
The Games: at NDSt (11/10), Iona (11/17)
Outlook: Cal Poly is a lock with wins in their last two games, if they can beat NDST, there is no denying this team, therefore they rank high in potential.
9. Massachusetts (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire (11/10), at Hofstra (11/18)
Outlook: UMass was cruising along until last weekend and now things aren’t looking so good. However winning out will put UMass back in thick of things, only two straight losses keeps them out of this post season! Losses by multiple teams could get them back in the talks of a top 4 seed.
10. Delaware State (8-1, 7-0 MEAC)
The Games: Norfolk State (11/10), Howard (11/17)
Outlook: The Hornets need a win Saturday to capture the autobid. A loss could take them out of playoff consideration all together. But a still in talks if they finish with two losses.
11. Elon (6-3, 4-2 SoCon)
The Games: Norfolk State (11/10), Howard (11/17)
Outlook: The SoCon’s surprise team of the year, now finds themselves in a must win situation! Win the last two and you are in, a loss will keep you home for the holidays, for the Phoenix, the playoffs begin Saturday.
12.Georgia Southern (7-2, 4-2 SoCon)
The Games: Furman (11/10), at Colorado State (11/17)
Outlook: Let’s all say it together, THE EAGLES ARE BACK! At 8-3 with a great resume will definitely put GSU in the post season. However they have two very difficult games remaining, a win in either game puts them in, no doubt. Win the last two and losses by ASU, McNeese, Delaware, and S. ILL will position GSU for a top 4 seed. Either way GSU would host a first round game.
13. Richmond (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware (11/10), William & Mary (11/17)
Outlook: The Spiders are on the rise, but this weekend will determine how far they have come. Either way an 8-3 record I believes gets them in the post season.
14. Eastern Kentucky (7-2, 6-0 OVC)
The Games: at Austin Peay (11/10), Tenn Tech (11/17)
Outlook: The Colonels have been the best of the OVC, but a loss this weekend will cause another conference mess. A win this weekend gets them the Autobid, a loss and their post season future could be in jeopardy. A win also makes the rest of the country breathe a sigh of relief.
15. Wofford (7-3, 4-2 SoCon)
The Games: at UTC (11/10)
Outlook: The Terriers continue to lurk. They could win the Autobid, but even at 8-3 they find themselves hoping for losses around the country. A strong conference and a win over ASU gets them in at 8-3.
16. Eastern Washington (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Northern Arizona (11/10), Weber State (11/17)
Outlook: EW must win their final two games to stay in the hunt, NAU will be a tough test. A down year for the Big Sky puts them on the bubble. EW has to hope that Cal Poly losses this weekend to better position yet another team from out West.
17. Hofstra (7-2, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at Northeastern (11/10), UMass (11/17)
Outlook: Hofstra made a statement last week and kept their name on the post season list. But the Pride must find a way to win their last two games to ensure a spot in the post season.
18. New Hampshire (6-3, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: at UMass (11/10), Maine (11/17)
Outlook: The Wildcats in a must win situation to finish the season. Last week’s loss may have doomed their post season hopes. Bottom line UNH will need to dig deep and beat a strong UMass team to keep hope alive.
19. James Madison (6-3, 4-2 A-10)
The Games: at William & Mary (11/10), Towson (11/17)
Outlook: The Dukes probably have to be worried at this point. First they must win out and they need for others to loose. With so many good teams from the CAA, JMU appears to be at the bottom of that list.
20. Norfolk State (7-2, 6-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Delaware State (11/10), Winston Salem State (11/17)
Outlook: Win the next two and Autobid is yours, a loss and you are out of playoff consideration!
21. Eastern Illinois (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: at Jacksonville State (11/10), Samford (11/17)
Outlook: The Panthers will earn strong consideration if they can win out, a Autobid is still possible but not likely.
22. Holy Cross (6-3, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: Layfayette (11/10), Colgate (11/17)
Outlook: Wins in the final two games gives strong consideration, the Colgate game will eliminate either from playoff talks, however a few losses around the country and we may see two from the Patriot League. This is beginning to look like Layfayette two years ago, so don’t be surprised to see history repeat itself and perhaps a trip to Boone!
23. Colgate (6-3, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Georgetown (11/10), at Holy Cross (11/17)
Outlook: See above
24. Alabama A&M (7-2, 5-2 SWAC)
The Games: at Alcorn State (11/10), at Praire View (11/17)
Outlook: Must win out and worthy of talking about, but their inability to win their own conference will likely end post season consideration.
25. Jacksonville State (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Eastern Illinois (11/10), at SE MO St (11/17)
Outlook: Lots of options still remaining for Jacksonville State, but right now they need to win out, anything less puts them out of consideration.
26. Austin Peay (6-3, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: EKU (11/10), at Murray State (11/17)
Outlook: The key here is to win out and hope for a bag full of upsets, not impossible, but not likely!
Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible matchups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.
Automatic Bids: Patriot: Fordham, A10: Delaware, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: McNeese State, Southern: Elon, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: Delaware State, OVC: Eastern Kentucky.
At-large: Appalachian State, Colgate, Eastern Washington, Georgia Southern, Hofstra, Illinois State, UMass, Richmond, Southern Illinois, and Wofford.
Seeds: Northern Iowa, Montana, McNeese State, Delaware.
Bracket I: E.Washington at No. 1 Northern Iowa; Fordham at Massachussetts;
Delaware State at No. 4 Delaware; Colgate at Appalachian State.
Bracket II: Hofstra at No. 2 Montana; EKU at S. Illinois;
Elon at No. 3 McNeese State; Richmond at Georgia Southern.