Sporting News/Coulson: Setting the Clock

[BDKJMU]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/around_the_fcs.htm

Suddenly, JMU (6-3, 4-2) is fighting for its playoff life after back-to-back losses to Richmond and Delaware in the CAA South Division. The Dukes must win at William & Mary and at home against Towson to have any chance of making the playoffs, but even that might not be enough.
With New Hampshire and Hofstra at three losses, UMass and Richmond at two losses and Delaware with only one loss, that puts JMU sixth and needing a lot of help to prove its playoff worth."

Hofstra has 2 losses, not 3. xconfusedx

As far as JMU & UNH, both teams are 6-3, but JMU is 4-2 in the CAA, UNH is 3-3. Plus JMU won head to head. I don't see how he could say UNH is ahead of JMU right now if the playoff field were being selected today.
If you look at the GPI, a lead indicator for at large inclusion JMU is tied with GSU for 10th. JMU right now is only 2 spots behind UMass, 4 ahead of UNH, and 6 ahead of Hofstra. IF JMU were to beat W&M & Towson, JMU would likely move up to the top 8, and depending on how things play out, 3-4 CAA teams will likely finish in the top 8. If JMU were to finish in the top 8, with just losses to an ACC school, by 1 and 3 points to two other playoff teams (UR &UD) I just don't see JMU being excluded. Of course as a JMU fan I am definitely rooting for UMass against UNH & Hofstra though, because if UMass wins there is no more discussion, debate, UNH is definitely out, & Hofstra highly likely."

[GannonFan]

If JMU were to finish in the top 8, with just losses to an ACC school, by 1 and 3 points to two other playoff teams (UR &UD) I just don't see JMU being excluded.

JMU could miss out if UD and Richmond both finish no worse than 8-3, Hofstra finishes 9-2, and UMass finishes 8-3 (assume beat UNH and lose to Hofstra). The 4th and last team picked from the CAA would be between UMass and JMU - in that scenario, both would've beaten UNH, and neither would have any other "great" wins. Tough call on who they would take. I'm still not counting on 5 teams from the CAA, so out of the 6 remaining (UD, Richmond, JMU, UNH, UMass, Hofstra) 2 will probably play their last game next week.

[mvemjsunpx]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/around_the_fcs.htm

Suddenly, JMU (6-3, 4-2) is fighting for its playoff life after back-to-back losses to Richmond and Delaware in the CAA South Division. The Dukes must win at William & Mary and at home against Towson to have any chance of making the playoffs, but even that might not be enough.
With New Hampshire and Hofstra at three losses, UMass and Richmond at two losses and Delaware with only one loss, that puts JMU sixth and needing a lot of help to prove its playoff worth."

Hofstra has 2 losses, not 3. xconfusedx




Coulson doesn't even understand how Daylight Savings Time works. What made you think he would get that right?

[UNHWildCats]

UNH is ahead of JMU cause it has better wins. JMU beat UNH in UNH's first game... who else have they beaten? UNH has won at Hofstra, at Marshall, vs Delaware and could soon add at Massachusetts

[JMU Duke Dog]

UNH is ahead of JMU cause it has better wins. JMU beat UNH in UNH's first game... who else have they beaten? UNH has won at Hofstra, at Marshall, vs Delaware and could soon add at Massachusetts

JMU is ahead of UNH in the CAA standings with a conference record of 4-2 vs. 3-3.

Marshall is 1-8 with their only win being against a 2-7 Rice squad that lost to fellow FCS Nicholls State. Sagarin's has JMU (#87) and UNH (#108) ranked ahead of Marshall (#141) too. While good for promoting the strength of FCS teams, I just do not think that UNH's victory over Marshall (who benched their starters for the first half) is as good as some people believe.

[No_Skill]

Why do his errors not surprise me?

[JMU2004]

UNH is ahead of JMU cause it has better wins. JMU beat UNH in UNH's first game... who else have they beaten? UNH has won at Hofstra, at Marshall, vs Delaware and could soon add at Massachusetts

UNH has been beaten relatively easily by JMU for 2 years running......There really is no doubt as to who the better team is. The whole point of a playoff is to put the best 16 teams in the tourney. UNH is not a better team than JMU, and the results on the field prove that.

[UNHWildCats]

UNH beat Marshall by 13

[JMU Duke Dog]

UNH beat Marshall by 13

:o I cannot believe I messed up on that simple math. I will edit my original post.

[PurpleandGold]

We seem to be forgetting URI. JMU beat them, UNH did not. I'll grant you that UNH beat UD and JMU did not, but neither team was supposed to beat them, both were supposed to beat URI and only JMU took care of business. JMU's CAA losses are by a combined 4 points, JMU alone beat UNH by more than that, which brings up the unavoidable head to head. UNH may have more "good" wins, but JMU has shown that it takes care of business when its supposed to.

As for an 8-3 UMASS, you have to go common opponents. Same argument for URI applies to NU and we trounced a VU team that took UMASS to overtime. If this hypothetical 8-3 UMASS lost to UNH, we'll we win again. A nice outing against BC complicates the mix, but besides that very good loss, would an 8-3 UMASS have any good wins besides Hofstra?

[UNHWILDCATS05]

We seem to be forgetting URI. JMU beat them, UNH did not. I'll grant you that UNH beat UD and JMU did not, but neither team was supposed to beat them, both were supposed to beat URI and only JMU took care of business. JMU's CAA losses are by a combined 4 points, JMU alone beat UNH by more than that, which brings up the unavoidable head to head. UNH may have more "good" wins, but JMU has shown that it takes care of business when its supposed to.



UNH beat URI

[WrenFGun]

UNH would be in over JMU, arguably, for a couple reasons, if both finish 8-3. For one, UNH would be the best team in the CAA North, and they would not let that team not make the tournament, IMO. Since UNH would have wins over UMass and Hofstra, it's fairly hard to distinguish that. Secondly, JMU would have two losses in their last four, AND their win over UNH would be in the first week of the season. UNH would have quality wins over 8-3/9-2 Hofstra, 9-2/10-1 Delaware, FBS Marshall and 8-3/7-4 UMass, which would be a fantastic resume and dam near impossible to not make the playoffs. Meanwhle, JMU would have wins over UNH, and that's about it. They've lost to the two premier teams on their schedule in their own division. I feel like the committee would take the best team from the North (UNH, if they win out) over the third best team in the South.

UNH is THE best 8-3 team (beyond App St, if they fall there) in the country, in terms of quality of wins.

[WrenFGun]

I should preface this statement, of course, with assuming we'd beat UMass and UMaine, which obviously, is no easy ballgame. Looking forward to Saturday. Upsets will play an enormous role in the playoffs..I'm just hoping UNH can give themselves a chance.

[mcveyrl]

Yea, this is all kind of a silly argument right now. For ANY of it to be relevant, there are several games to be played.

Plus, I've pointed out before, I don't think there's any question that an 8-3UNH team gets in over JMU...but again, ALL OF THAT is a long way off.

[JMU2004]

UNH would be in over JMU, arguably, for a couple reasons, if both finish 8-3. For one, UNH would be the best team in the CAA North, and they would not let that team not make the tournament, IMO. Since UNH would have wins over UMass and Hofstra, it's fairly hard to distinguish that. Secondly, JMU would have two losses in their last four, AND their win over UNH would be in the first week of the season. UNH would have quality wins over 8-3/9-2 Hofstra, 9-2/10-1 Delaware, FBS Marshall and 8-3/7-4 UMass, which would be a fantastic resume and dam near impossible to not make the playoffs. Meanwhle, JMU would have wins over UNH, and that's about it. They've lost to the two premier teams on their schedule in their own division. I feel like the committee would take the best team from the North (UNH, if they win out) over the third best team in the South.

UNH is THE best 8-3 team (beyond App St, if they fall there) in the country, in terms of quality of wins.


UNH would have more conference losses(3 vs 2 for JMU) and a head to head loss to JMU. I just don't see it......Its not a north division vs south division issue.

[WrenFGun]

I feel strongly that the committee would take the best team from the CAA north (UNH, if they win out) over the third best team in the CAA south, particularly a team from the north with the quality wins that they have. With that said, I'd expect both to get in if they're both 8-3.

[BDKJMU]

UNH would be in over JMU, arguably, for a couple reasons, if both finish 8-3. For one, UNH would be the best team in the CAA North, and they would not let that team not make the tournament, IMO. Since UNH would have wins over UMass and Hofstra, it's fairly hard to distinguish that. Secondly, JMU would have two losses in their last four, AND their win over UNH would be in the first week of the season. UNH would have quality wins over 8-3/9-2 Hofstra, 9-2/10-1 Delaware, FBS Marshall and 8-3/7-4 UMass, which would be a fantastic resume and dam near impossible to not make the playoffs. Meanwhle, JMU would have wins over UNH, and that's about it. They've lost to the two premier teams on their schedule in their own division. I feel like the committee would take the best team from the North (UNH, if they win out) over the third best team in the South.

UNH is THE best 8-3 team (beyond App St, if they fall there) in the country, in terms of quality of wins.

I still say 8-3/6-2 & winning head to head trumps 8-3/5-3, plus would likely be ranked higher in the GPI (JMU is currently tied for 10th and would likely end up top 8), UNH is 14th but would likely end up a couple spots behind. We can argue this in circles all day long. However, I don't believe the CAA is looked at North & South like its 2 different conferences. They're not going to be like, "Well, this is the best or second best team in the north, so we have to take them over the 3rd best team in the south." There is no "CAA North" champ and "CAA South" champ, just 1 CAA champ. If the committee takes 4 teams, I don't think it would make a difference if 1, 2, 3, or 4 came from the south or the north. They're not going to differentiate between the north and the south. They're just going to take what they feel are the top 4 teams. If they do look at it like 2 different conferences, then the CAA after they add a 13th team with ODU may as well add a 14th team, then split into 2 conferences of 7. Today some people say its ludicrous to say that 5 CAA teams could get bids, much less 6. Have 2 separate conferences of 7 teams, no-one will say anything about getting 3 in from each conference, (just like no one say anything about the notion of the 7 team Gateway getting 3 teams in). There you could have 6 teams between the 2 conferences getting in. 6 out of 14 is a lot better than 4 out of 12.

[GannonFan]

I wouldn't necessarily agree with it, based on the head to head matchup, but I could see an 8-3 UNH team getting in before an 8-3 JMU team. UNH would have wins over UMass, Hofstra, and UD - JMU would have wins over UNH. There's no doubt that JMU has had the easier conference schedule as compared to what UNH has played so comparing conference records isn't as valid anymore - with unbalanced schedules (like the Big East in basketball) conference records aren't terribly valid. UNH may even get excused from the Northeastern loss due to the severe weather conditions. And, not to be underestimated, UNH does have the defending Payton Award winner at QB in his senior season - that could be enough sway to put UNH in over JMU. Like I said, I think the head to head should trump things, but when both teams have the flaws that 3 losses means, sometimes the value of the head to head can be lessened.

[mcveyrl]

I wouldn't necessarily agree with it, based on the head to head matchup, but I could see an 8-3 UNH team getting in before an 8-3 JMU team. UNH would have wins over UMass, Hofstra, and UD - JMU would have wins over UNH. There's no doubt that JMU has had the easier conference schedule as compared to what UNH has played so comparing conference records isn't as valid anymore - with unbalanced schedules (like the Big East in basketball) conference records aren't terribly valid. UNH may even get excused from the Northeastern loss due to the severe weather conditions. And, not to be underestimated, UNH does have the defending Payton Award winner at QB in his senior season - that could be enough sway to put UNH in over JMU. Like I said, I think the head to head should trump things, but when both teams have the flaws that 3 losses means, sometimes the value of the head to head can be lessened.

I also think the fact that the head to head was very early on hurts its value.