Bracketology 2007, Week 3

[TheValleyRaider]

Back again xrotatehx

A weekly look at the current makeup of the playoff field continues as the season progresses. Some definite changes this week from last. Let us see how it all shakes out.

First, the autobids. 4 schools have already sealed their conference's bid, while the other 4 will be chosen in the usual fashion. Unresolvable ties will be fixed in a manner of my choosing and explanation. After conference tiebreakers are exhausted, I revert to overall record, then some slightly more drastic steps. Autobids for this week are:
Big Sky-Montana*
CAA-Delaware
Gateway-Northern Iowa*
MEAC-Delaware State
OVC-Eastern Kentucky
Patriot-Fordham*
Southern-Elon
Southland-McNeese State*
*-officially clinched

Next, the 8+1 for at-large births. According to our old friend the GPI, the 8+1 are:
1-Appalachian State
2-Southern Illinois
3-Richmond
4-Massachusetts
5-James Madison
6-Georgia Southern
7-Wofford
8-New Hampshire
+1-Eastern Washington
Cal Poly, Dayton, EWU and Holy Cross all were given consideration for the at-large
-Cal Poly has won 6 of 7 (the committee likes hot teams), but has no quality wins.
-EWU has won 3 of 4, with their best win of the year coming against Montana State.
-Dayton does have a win over a playoff team (Fordham) that none of the others do, however their overall strength of schedule, plus their actual record being 6-1 (non D-I wins are ignored) keeps them out.
-Holy Cross has won 4 of 5, with their 3 losses coming to 2 playoff teams (UMass, Fordham) and a would-be playoff team (Yale), but their only quality win is Harvard.
I went with EWU as the +1 again because I feel the inclusion of a 2nd Big Sky team continues to seem the most likely given circumstances as they currently stand. Most likely team to jump EWU is Cal Poly. If the Mustangs win out, it would include a victory over North Dakota State, which would trump any victory the other 3 would have on their resumes. This week, EWU will bump Wofford, as I think the CAA has been the stronger conference this season (thereby more deserving of the 4th bid) and UNH has a win over CAA autobid Delaware.

16 playoff teams are:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
James Madison
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois

Brackets to follow shortly

[GreatAppSt]

You forgot Dayton.

[TheValleyRaider]

As a reminder, the 16:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
James Madison
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois

First step, the Seeds
Top 4 teams are seeded, mostly rankings used. Undefeated records highly considered.
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Montana
4-Delaware
UMass drops out as a seed this week and is replaced by 1-loss CAA autobid UD as the 4th seed. Montana gets bumped up to #3 due to UMass losing, and the Griz are undefeated. Decent East, South, Midwest, West placement here.

Next, the other 4 1st round home games
Attendance is used by me to generally determine who will be submitting good bids.

JMU is high enough in the attendence standings and their administration continues to show a desire to upgrade the program. For now, I'll take that to mean they're gonna bid high. I will not be surprised, however, if they miss out again. Same with SIU, although the Salukis do have a first round game from last year to show for their efforts. Richmond would be my "waiting-in-the-wings" guess due to their history of hosting. Fordham and EKU would also not surprise me as a host, given their schools' resources and football committment. ASU and GSU seem pretty straightforward to me, although I would not be surprised if the Eagles miss out again like they did in 2005.

Matching these games with Seeds for bracketing purposes:
Appalachian State and Delaware
Georgia Southern and McNeese State
James Madison and Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois and Montana
My only real goal here was to avoid conference matchups in the 2nd round. I know it happens, and it's allowed, but I wanted to avoid seeing that happen. Thus, JMU was matched with UNI, and ASU with UD. SIU/GSU for Montana/McNeese also made the most sense from a seeding standpoint. The only real terrible geographic match here is SIU-Montana, but let's face it, only EWU is close to Montana, and they're unlikely to host.

Finally, setting up the first round matchups. First step is to avoid conference matchups. Secondly, match according to geography. Finally, consider seeding if travel is generally equal (you either go by bus or plane, but once you're on a plane, anywhere goes).
Delaware State at Delaware
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Eastern Washington at McNeese State
Elon at James Madison
Fordham at Montana
Massachusetts at Southern Illinois
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
Richmond at Georgia Southern
Really, only UD-DSU and EKU-ASU are real good driving options. Elon was also close enough to get to JMU relatively easily. Otherwise, we're generally going to let seeds take over. EWU goes to McNeese, this time considering the history of Big Sky-Southland battles in the 1st Round. UNH, as at-large #8 of the "8+1" gets the #1 seeded UNI. Montana, the remaining seed, gets the lowest remaining team, Fordham. Richmond goes down to GSU as a "southern" matchup, which leaves UMass-SIU.

The bracket:
1-Northern Iowa
New Hampshire

James Madison
Elon

4-Delaware
Delaware State

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Eastern Washington

Georgia Southern
Richmond

3-Montana
Fordham

Southern Illinois
Massachusetts

Only 2 more weeks until the real thing... xdizzyx

[skinny_uncle]

As a reminder, the 16:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
James Madison
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois

First step, the Seeds
Top 4 teams are seeded, mostly rankings used. Undefeated records highly considered.
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Montana
4-Delaware
UMass drops out as a seed this week and is replaced by 1-loss CAA autobid UD as the 4th seed. Montana gets bumped up to #3 due to UMass losing, and the Griz are undefeated. Decent East, South, Midwest, West placement here.

Next, the other 4 1st round home games
Attendance is used by me to generally determine who will be submitting good bids.

JMU is high enough in the attendence standings and their administration continues to show a desire to upgrade the program. For now, I'll take that to mean they're gonna bid high. I will not be surprised, however, if they miss out again. Same with SIU, although the Salukis do have a first round game from last year to show for their efforts. Richmond would be my "waiting-in-the-wings" guess due to their history of hosting. Fordham and EKU would also not surprise me as a host, given their schools' resources and football committment. ASU and GSU seem pretty straightforward to me, although I would not be surprised if the Eagles miss out again like they did in 2005.

Matching these games with Seeds for bracketing purposes:
Appalachian State and Delaware
Georgia Southern and McNeese State
James Madison and Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois and Montana
My only real goal here was to avoid conference matchups in the 2nd round. I know it happens, and it's allowed, but I wanted to avoid seeing that happen. Thus, JMU was matched with UNI, and ASU with UD. SIU/GSU for Montana/McNeese also made the most sense from a seeding standpoint. The only real terrible geographic match here is SIU-Montana, but let's face it, only EWU is close to Montana, and they're unlikely to host.

Finally, setting up the first round matchups. First step is to avoid conference matchups. Secondly, match according to geography. Finally, consider seeding if travel is generally equal (you either go by bus or plane, but once you're on a plane, anywhere goes).
Delaware State at Delaware
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Eastern Washington at McNeese State
Elon at James Madison
Fordham at Montana
Massachusetts at Southern Illinois
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
Richmond at Georgia Southern
Really, only UD-DSU and EKU-ASU are real good driving options. Elon was also close enough to get to JMU relatively easily. Otherwise, we're generally going to let seeds take over. EWU goes to McNeese, this time considering the history of Big Sky-Southland battles in the 1st Round. UNH, as at-large #8 of the "8+1" gets the #1 seeded UNI. Montana, the remaining seed, gets the lowest remaining team, Fordham. Richmond goes down to GSU as a "southern" matchup, which leaves UMass-SIU.

The bracket:
1-Northern Iowa
New Hampshire

James Madison
Elon

4-Delaware
Delaware State

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Eastern Washington

Georgia Southern
Richmond

3-Montana
Fordham

Southern Illinois
Massachusetts

Only 2 more weeks until the real thing... xdizzyx
I'd swap UMass and EKU for geographic reasons. Outside of that, it looks pretty good.

[appfan2008]

yeah! it finally came out!!! i love your bracketology bc of how much logic you put behind it... now i will get to reading it and respond a little later

[appfan2008]

another fine job this week valley... really agree with everything you said and i like the possibility of eku coming to the rock... i think the committee will probably go for that which i would like... going to deleware in the second round also seems logical so i like it... another solid job with great reasoning behind all of it

[skinny_uncle]

May I ask why Fordham is shipped way out west when they are only about 2 hours from UMass?

Somebody has to go. If Montana gets a seed, someone will be travelling. Most of the seeds are west of the Mississippi River. Almost all of the at-larges are east of the Mississippi River. It adds up to some teams logging some miles this year.

[crunifan]

I still cannot believe SIU is not getting more respect.

They only have one loss to the number team in the nation! And it was a VERY close game. Yet teams with two losses are ahead of them?

[skinny_uncle]

I still cannot believe SIU is not getting more respect.

They only have one loss to the number team in the nation! And it was a VERY close game. Yet teams with two losses are ahead of them?
Delaware does not have their second loss.............yet.
xnodx

[appfan2008]

I still cannot believe SIU is not getting more respect.

They only have one loss to the number team in the nation! And it was a VERY close game. Yet teams with two losses are ahead of them?

I guess it comes down to what quality wins a team has?

[aceinthehole]

I really like your explanations. Sounds like you have Cal Poly as the next rated at-large and right now Albany is the NEC leader. So, how would your bracket look with those 2 teams in the 18-team format proposed for 2008?


1-Northern Iowa
Albany at New Hampshire (PIG)

James Madison
Elon

4-Delaware
Delaware State

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Cal Poly at Eastern Washington (PIG)

Georgia Southern
Richmond

3-Montana
Fordham

Southern Illinois
Massachusetts

[Ud1Hens]

Southern Illinois does not have their first signiture win.............at all.

We'd be happy to invite you back to Delaware for a playoff game again...what was it 48-7? Haha, just messin' with ya.

[Houndawg]

Southern Illinois does not have their first signiture win.............at all.

We'd be happy to invite you back to Delaware for a playoff game again...what was it 48-7?

Ancient history. And YSU was #10 when we beat them.

And it's "signature".

[UMass922]

I really like your explanations. Sounds like you have Cal Poly as the next rated at-large and right now Albany is the NEC leader. So, how would your bracket look with those 2 teams in the 18-team format proposed for 2008?


1-Northern Iowa
Albany at New Hampshire (PIG)

James Madison
Elon

4-Delaware
Delaware State

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Cal Poly at Eastern Washington (PIG)

Georgia Southern
Richmond

3-Montana
Fordham

Southern Illinois
Massachusetts

Looks good. I could live with that. Though I wonder if UNH might be sent out to Montana and Fordham switched into the PIG against Albany. I know Fordham and Albany already played this year, so it wouldn't be ideal, but the committee hasn't avoided first-round rematches in the past (Eastern Illinois and Illinois State were rematched last year), and they'd probably consider UNH the stronger team and so would not "penalize" them with the play-in-game. That's just a speculation, though. It will be interesting to see how this works out in practice once it's implemented. I'm definitely looking forward to it.

[Ud1Hens]

Ancient history. And YSU was #10 when we beat them.

And it's "signature".

Thanks...I forgot to double check what I wrote. I am glad that you were so concerned with me spelling one word wrong. I'll be sure not to allow that to happen again. Just joking again buddy...

Good luck to SIU the rest of the way...should be a fun last couple games before the playoffs.

[GaSouthern]

I like not being in ASU's bracket, dont want to play them again!

[Houndawg]

Thanks...I forgot to double check what I wrote. I am glad that you were so concerned with me spelling one word wrong. I'll be sure not to allow that to happen again. Just joking again buddy...

Good luck to SIU the rest of the way...should be a fun last couple games before the playoffs.

Not concerned, just the normal anal retentiveness you'd expect from an engineering major.;) . I agree that if we're both 10-1 and you're the undisputed league champ that you'd get the seed. If you're 9-2 and we're 10-1 (obviously no sure thing) then I think the call is a little closer.

Here's why: As the dude from McNeese said in another thread- Our schedule looked plenty rugged in August. Two very good teams from the Gateway are out with four losses:

YSU lost to UNI (by 1pt.), SIU, ISU, and Ohio State.

WIU lost to UNI, SIU(by 1 pt.), NDSU, and Illinois.

There are teams in the FCS top 10 right now that could easily go 0-4 or 1-3 against either of those line ups. The Gateway gets two PO teams this year, but didn't miss three or four by more than a couple of breaks. So there.;) Don't mean to sound pissy, I'm a joker in real life.

[Ud1Hens]

Not concerned, just the normal anal retentiveness you'd expect from an engineering major.;) . I agree that if we're both 10-1 and you're the undisputed league champ that you'd get the seed. If you're 9-2 and we're 10-1 (obviously no sure thing) then I think the call is a little closer.

Here's why: As the dude from McNeese said in another thread- Our schedule looked plenty rugged in August. Two very good teams from the Gateway are out with four losses:

YSU lost to UNI (by 1pt.), SIU, ISU, and Ohio State.

WIU lost to UNI, SIU(by 1 pt.), NDSU, and Illinois.

There are teams in the FCS top 10 right now that could easily go 0-4 or 1-3 against either of those line ups. The Gateway gets two PO teams this year, but didn't miss three or four by more than a couple of breaks. So there.;) Don't mean to sound pissy, I'm a joker in real life.

Totally understandable...you expect teams to be good and then after you beat them they go downhill. You have more teams that fit that bill, we have Towson, who was top 25, now they are last in the CAA South. if we lost one and you win out, the seed is yours.

[Houndawg]

Totally understandable...you expect teams to be good and then after you beat them they go downhill. You have more teams that fit that bill, we have Towson, who was top 25, now they are last in the CAA South. if we lost one and you win out, the seed is yours.

I'd agree that the only way we get a seed is if we win out AND you lose one, neither of which is anywhere near certain. My point in listing YSU and WIU losses was that a team doesn't have to be going downhill to go 0-4 or 1-3 against either of the mentioned group of losses. A team might be a good team and lose 3/4. YSU outplayed UNI for three quarters and WIU outplayed SIU for three quarters.

[TheValleyRaider]

I really like your explanations. Sounds like you have Cal Poly as the next rated at-large and right now Albany is the NEC leader. So, how would your bracket look with those 2 teams in the 18-team format proposed for 2008?


1-Northern Iowa
Albany at New Hampshire (PIG)

James Madison
Elon

4-Delaware
Delaware State

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Cal Poly at Eastern Washington (PIG)

Georgia Southern
Richmond

3-Montana
Fordham

Southern Illinois
Massachusetts

Yeah, I'd say that's about right. Cal Poly might get that home game due to bidding, but I'm not sure either team has a history of bidding, so that's obviously up in the air. Instead of UNH, I might get an Albany-Fordham rematch for that play-in game, or perhaps swap the two, keeping Albany in the 16 and Fordham in the play-in due to the Danes already having a head-to-head win.

[AZGrizFan]

Not concerned, just the normal anal retentiveness you'd expect from an engineering major.;) . I agree that if we're both 10-1 and you're the undisputed league champ that you'd get the seed. If you're 9-2 and we're 10-1 (obviously no sure thing) then I think the call is a little closer.

Here's why: As the dude from McNeese said in another thread- Our schedule looked plenty rugged in August. Two very good teams from the Gateway are out with four losses:

YSU lost to UNI (by 1pt.), SIU, ISU, and Ohio State.

WIU lost to UNI, SIU(by 1 pt.), NDSU, and Illinois.

There are teams in the FCS top 10 right now that could easily go 0-4 or 1-3 against either of those line ups. The Gateway gets two PO teams this year, but didn't miss three or four by more than a couple of breaks. So there.;) Don't mean to sound pissy, I'm a joker in real life.


Dude---Look at the teams WIU and YSU lost to. I would hesitate before not calling them good wins. Any win over YSU is usually a good win. WIU hasn't exactly ***** the bed against a URI or Maine, or Indiana State. They're losing only to top flight competition.

[Houndawg]

Dude---Look at the teams WIU and YSU lost to. I would hesitate before not calling them good wins. Any win over YSU is usually a good win. WIU hasn't exactly ***** the bed against a URI or Maine, or Indiana State. They're losing only to top flight competition.

That's exactly the point I'm trying to make for the benefit of the Delaware contingent that is claiming SIU hasn't beaten anybody and doesn't deserve a seedxthumbsupx .

[KiddBrewer]

dont know much about them, so ill ask. could delaware state beat delaware or have they played, so forth and so on.....

[AZGrizFan]

That's exactly the point I'm trying to make for the benefit of the Delaware contingent that is claiming SIU hasn't beaten anybody and doesn't deserve a seedxthumbsupx .

SIU beat FBS Northern Illinois (Navy equivalent), YSU (losses to #1 FBS Ohio State, #1 FCS UNI, #5 FCS SIU and ISU...ok, that's not a good loss) and WIU (losses to #1 FCS UNI, #2 FCS NDSU, #5 FCS SIU, and bowl-bound FBS Illinios), and SIU lost to #1 FCS UNI by 1 point.

Delaware beat Navy & JMU (YSU equivalent), and lost to a 6-3 NH team (with losses to JMU, Richmond and Northeastern xeekx ) that in all likelihood won't make the playoffs after losing to UMass this weekend.

My nod goes to SIU---by a country mile. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[Ud1Hens]

SIU beat FBS Northern Illinois (Navy equivalent), YSU (losses to #1 FBS Ohio State, #1 FCS UNI, #5 FCS SIU and ISU...ok, that's not a good loss) and WIU (losses to #1 FCS UNI, #2 FCS NDSU, #5 FCS SIU, and bowl-bound FBS Illinios), and SIU lost to #1 FCS UNI by 1 point.

Delaware beat Navy & JMU (YSU equivalent), and lost to a 6-3 NH team (with losses to JMU, Richmond and Northeastern xeekx ) that in all likelihood won't make the playoffs after losing to UMass this weekend.

My nod goes to SIU---by a country mile. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

A country mile? You are forgetting that in this scenario, Delaware would have beaten Richmond which is going to the playoffs. I would hardly call a win over N. Illinois equal to a win over Navy, Navy is going to a bowl game while N. Illinois is a 1 win team.

[LehighFan11]

Northern Illinois is horrible, just about any FCS team could beat them. By the way just beacuse a team may have lost to a bunch of top 10 teams doesn't mean they are good. You must look at their wins not their losses.

[Houndawg]

Northern Illinois is horrible, just about any FCS team could beat them. By the way just beacuse a team may have lost to a bunch of top 10 teams doesn't mean they are good. You must look at their wins not their losses.

I disagree. There is such a thing as a "good loss". That's what SOS is for; and NIU wasn't yet horrible we played them, in fact they were up by 20 in the 4th qtr. Coming from three scores down in the 4th on damn any FBS team is not easy.

[Ud1Hens]

dont know much about them, so ill ask. could delaware state beat delaware or have they played, so forth and so on.....

The two teams have never played. Could Delaware St. beat Delaware? Possibly, anyone can beat anyone...this one would be really unlikely though. Del St. has needed 4 straight late forth quarter comebacks (and a gift from the refs) to beat lower level MEAC teams. Their ranking is a product of an easy schedule and having teams ahead of them beat eachother up. They play 9 games against conference teams, which just happens to be the worst conference in the nation.

[Houndawg]

The two teams have never played. Could Delaware St. beat Delaware? Possibly, anyone can beat anyone...this one would be really unlikely though. Del St. has needed 4 straight late forth quarter comebacks (and a gift from the refs) to beat lower level MEAC teams. Their ranking is a product of an easy schedule and having teams ahead of them beat eachother up. They play 9 games against conference teams, which just happens to be the worst conference in the nation.

Cool, they'll help ease your path through the playoffs.

Two teams in Delaware can't possibly be more than a couple hours from each other. Never played?

[Ud1Hens]

Cool, they'll help ease your path through the playoffs.

Two teams in Delaware can't possibly be more than a couple hours from each other. Never played?

You can get from the top of Delaware to the bottom of the state in 1 hr. and 45 minutes. UD and DSU are 35-40 minutes away. And no they have never played, tons of speculation on why not but the bottom line is that they haven't.

[texcap]

I disagree. There is such a thing as a "good loss". That's what SOS is for; and NIU wasn't yet horrible we played them, in fact they were up by 20 in the 4th qtr. Coming from three scores down in the 4th on damn any FBS team is not easy.

While it was early in the year I would guess that NIU was just as horrible then as they are now. The difference is that we did not know they were horrible then because they had not played many games. Now that they have played a lot of games we now know how horrible they are, and were, even back then.

Using your analogy, at the beginning of the year Savannah State had the same recored as Ohio State (0-0), but that doesn't mean they got worse over the course of the year. By playing games Savannah State proved that they were worse.

[JmuSkinsfan]

dont know much about them, so ill ask. could delaware state beat delaware or have they played, so forth and so on.....

I'm really kinda sick of the MEAC getting so much attention year in and year out (up until now its been Hampton). Granted, things can change a lot in a year or so, but in 2005 JMU beat Del. State 60 something to 7. At the time I was just getting introduced as an FCS fan (was a freshman) and just assumed Del. State was a pitiful FCS team....and now they are ranked #10...I just don't get it...

Every year Hampton gets in the playoffs and is usually ranked pretty high, then comes out and flops in the playoffs. I wish one of these MEAC teams would prove me wrong, but why do they continue to get respect when they haven't really proven anything in the playoffs. Maybe I missed something before I started following FCS and since 2005 they have just had a few down years, but really...Del. State #10??

[JmuSkinsfan]

And as much as I would love to see Del. State knock the snot out of UD....I don't think it would happen. Again, maybe I am opening a can of worms here, but are these MEAC teams really as good as their record might indicate?

[URMite]

The two teams have never played. Could Delaware St. beat Delaware? Possibly, anyone can beat anyone...this one would be really unlikely though. Del St. has needed 4 straight late forth quarter comebacks (and a gift from the refs) to beat lower level MEAC teams. Their ranking is a product of an easy schedule and having teams ahead of them beat eachother up. They play 9 games against conference teams, which just happens to be the worst conference in the nation.

The worst conference? or the worst conference with an autobid?

[appfan2008]

I like not being in ASU's bracket, dont want to play them again!

thanks for the props... same goes for us!

[appfan2008]

You can get from the top of Delaware to the bottom of the state in 1 hr. and 45 minutes. UD and DSU are 35-40 minutes away. And no they have never played, tons of speculation on why not but the bottom line is that they haven't.

then this would be a great time for them to play... its about dang time and how awesome would it be for the first time to be in the playoffs!

[Houndawg]

While it was early in the year I would guess that NIU was just as horrible then as they are now. The difference is that we did not know they were horrible then because they had not played many games. Now that they have played a lot of games we now know how horrible they are, and were, even back then.

Using your analogy, at the beginning of the year Savannah State had the same recored as Ohio State (0-0), but that doesn't mean they got worse over the course of the year. By playing games Savannah State proved that they were worse.

Or maybe they were hit hard with injuries or coaching isssues......I don't know. But if they were that bad they shouldn't have up by 20 in the 4th. I still maintain that YSU and WIU are significantly better than their four losses indicate and are a good win for anyone in the FCS.

[Ud1Hens]

The worst conference? or the worst conference with an autobid?

With the autobid, that's what I meant. I know there are worse conferences out there, but they don't take up a playoff spot.

[89Hen]

Without peeking at your brackets, using your teams and seeds here are mine...

Eastern Washington at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Delaware State at #4 Delaware
Fordham at Massachusetts


Richmond at #2 McNeese State
Elon at James Madison

Southern Illinois at #3 Montana
Eastern Kentucky at Georgia Southern

[89Hen]

3-Montana
Fordham

Southern Illinois
Massachusetts
Based on history, no way that goes like that. Flip SIU and FU. xpeacex

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Any thought to putting a 9-2 Alabama A&M in there with potentially 8 D-I wins? This goes a long way towards solving the problem of so many autobids out west and so few at-large teams (hint, hint)...

[AZGrizFan]

Based on history, no way that goes like that. Flip SIU and FU. xpeacex

Yep. Must give the patsie to the CAA team. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnodx

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Any thought to putting a 9-2 Alabama A&M in there with potentially 8 D-I wins? This goes a long way towards solving the problem of so many autobids out west and so few at-large teams (hint, hint)...

A lot of things would have to go their way I think. They are 37th - YES 37TH!!!! - in GPI. Their record is good, but like Dayton, San Diego and the rest, they are not yet playoff worthy with their SOS given their record.

Still possible for up to 5 CAA teams to qualify with stronger resumes and the SoCon could have a 3or 4-way tie for their conference champ.

I just don't see them in, sorry. There's never been a SWAC team in the field I don't think, and the only reason to include them given the overall picture would be politics, and that would piss a lot of people off. Stranger things have happened though...

[ChickenMan]

Yep. Must give the patsie to the CAA team. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnodx

just like in '03 when #2 seed UD.. got 10-1 SIU in the 1st round... ;)

[AZGrizFan]

Any thought to putting a 9-2 Alabama A&M in there with potentially 8 D-I wins? This goes a long way towards solving the problem of so many autobids out west and so few at-large teams (hint, hint)...

so, now Alabama is "West"? xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[bluehenbillk]

Here's my 1st stab at this bracket:

1-UNI hosts E.Washington
Georgia Southern hosts Richmond

4-UD hosts DelState
UMass hosts Fordham

2-Montana hosts Wofford
S. Illinois hosts Richmond

3-McNeese St hosts Alabama A&M
App St. hosts James Madison

[AZGrizFan]

just like in '03 when #2 seed UD.. got 10-1 SIU in the 1st round... ;)

I love how you can pull out the one exception and assume it's the rule. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

"There was this one time....at band camp...."

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Here's my 1st stab at this bracket:

1-UNI hosts E.Washington
Georgia Southern hosts Richmond

4-UD hosts DelState
UMass hosts Fordham

2-Montana hosts Wofford
S. Illinois hosts Richmond

3-McNeese St hosts Alabama A&M
App St. hosts James Madison

Ummm... I think EKU is missing from this equation... Are you putting a 9-2 potentially top 30 GPI 2nd place SWAC team in over a likely top 10 GPI 8-3 4th CAA JMU team? xeyebrowx xconfusedx xrotatehx

[bluehenbillk]

Ummm... I think EKU is missing from this equation... Are you putting a 9-2 potentially top 30 GPI 2nd place SWAC team in over a likely top 10 GPI 8-3 4th CAA JMU team? xeyebrowx xconfusedx xrotatehx


oops, I had Richmond in there twice accidentally. Should have read S. Illinois hosts E. Kentucky, thanks for catching that.

[GannonFan]

I love how you can pull out the one exception and assume it's the rule. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

"There was this one time....at band camp...."

You know, we did get Portland St one year in the opening round. What conference are they from again???? Seems to me like we are 2-0 in the first round against teams from that conference (just can't remember the name, darn it) and we scored 49 points in both of those games. Gosh, I just can't seem to remember what that conference was. :p :p :p

[AZGrizFan]

You know, we did get Portland St one year in the opening round. What conference are they from again???? Seems to me like we are 2-0 in the first round against teams from that conference (just can't remember the name, darn it) and we scored 49 points in both of those games. Gosh, I just can't seem to remember what that conference was. :p :p :p


I don't believe PSU was the autobid that year.


Next. xwhistlex

[ChickenMan]

I love how you can pull out the one exception and assume it's the rule. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

"There was this one time....at band camp...."


I notice you seem to have 'no comment' relative to how the home/away factor or should I say 'disparity'.. might effect a team's or league's playoff success.


Big Sky..

home - 40
away - 21


CAA..

home - 37
away - 49


amazing that all those CAA 'patsies' seem to get the majority of the home games.. while the Big Sky gets home games at a 2 to 1 ratio... ;)

[GannonFan]

I don't believe PSU was the autobid that year.


Next. xwhistlex


Of course they weren't, is it even technically allowed for the autobid to leave the state in that conference? Must be something in the by-laws... :p

[AZGrizFan]

I notice you seem to have 'no comment' relative to how the home/away factor or should I say 'disparity'.. might effect a team's or league's playoff success.


Big Sky..

home - 40
away - 21


CAA..

home - 37
away - 49


amazing that all those CAA 'patsies' seem to get the majority of the home games.. while the Big Sky gets home games at a 2 to 1 ratio... ;)

Dude....dude.....dude. When half you ******** conference gets in every year, of COURSE you're gonna play more road games. Think about that, and get back to me. xpeacex

[ChickenMan]

Dude....dude.....dude. When half you ******** conference gets in every year, of COURSE you're gonna play more road games. Think about that, and get back to me. xpeacex


On average the SoCon gets as gotten as many in each year as the CAA..


SoCon..

home - 71
away - 36

CAA..

home - 37
away - 49

"Think about that, and get back to me." :p

[GannonFan]

Dude....dude.....dude. When half you ******** conference gets in every year, of COURSE you're gonna play more road games. Think about that, and get back to me. xpeacex

Let's be honest, the CAA has never really come close to getting half the conference in - that'd be 6 teams. We got 4 in, once. Most of the time it's either 2 or 3, which is far below that half threshold.

[URMite]

oops, I had Richmond in there twice accidentally. Should have read S. Illinois hosts E. Kentucky, thanks for catching that.

Damn! I liked that bracket, with 2 first round games we had a much better chance of winning one of them to move on. (unless they were at the same time) :p

[GannonFan]

Damn! I liked that bracket, with 2 first round games we had a much better chance of winning one of them to move on. (unless they were at the same time) :p

Yeah, those split-squad playoff games are just not the way to go. :p

[89Hen]

Yep. Must give the patsie to the CAA team. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xnodx
xconfusedx Fordam beat their CAA playoff opponent the only time they faced one... the same can't be said for SIU. xcoffeex At least you're consisant, you never let facts get in your way of your east coast bias claim. xlolx

[AZGrizFan]

xconfusedx Fordam beat their CAA playoff opponent the only time they faced one... the same can't be said for SIU. xcoffeex At least you're consisant, you never let facts get in your way of your east coast bias claim. xlolx

I set 'em up.....

You knock 'em out of the park! xnodx xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx

[appfan2008]

On average the SoCon gets as gotten as many in each year as the CAA..


SoCon..

home - 71
away - 36

CAA..

home - 37
away - 49

"Think about that, and get back to me." :p

that sure is a lot of damn home games for the socon

[ChickenMan]

that sure is a lot of damn home games for the socon


overwhelmingly due to the Big 3.. they are..

home - 66
road - 30


the rest of the SonCon..

home - 5
road - 6

[danefan]

What makes Holy Cross's season that much better than Albany that they would be in consideration for an at-large, yet Albany doesn't find its way into any whispers?

Albany
6-3
SOS: 66 (massey)

3 Losses:
Montana (4)*
Hofstra (18)
Colgate (NR)

Key Win:
Fordham (24)*


Holy Cross
6-3
SOS: 59 (massey)

3 Losses:
UMass (8)*
Yale (10) –safe to say Yale would get an at-large if they wanted one.
Fordham (24)*

Key Win:
Harvard (ORV)

*AQ clinched.
Rankings taken from AGS poll only.

******DISCLAIMER: I DON'T THINK EITHER SHOULD GET AN AT-LARGE******

[TheValleyRaider]

Without peeking at your brackets, using your teams and seeds here are mine...

Eastern Washington at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Delaware State at #4 Delaware
Fordham at Massachusetts

Richmond at #2 McNeese State
Elon at James Madison

Southern Illinois at #3 Montana
Eastern Kentucky at Georgia Southern

You'd give UMass the home game?

Before last season, when they were seeded, UMass' last playoff home game was Lehigh in the 2nd Round in 1998. They were on the road in the first round that year. In between, they were outbid for a home game in 2003. In other words, they only had home games in recent memory when they were seeded and had to be the home team. There's not a lot to go on, but unless the committee is desperate for a UMass-Fordham matchup, I'd be a bit surprised if the Minutemen have outbid others for one of those home games xtwocentsx


Based on history, no way that goes like that. Flip SIU and FU. xpeacex

Remember, that's me thinking SIU bids for a home game. Given the choice between sending UMass or Fordham to Montana, I went with the lower ranked team xpeacex

[appfan2008]

overwhelmingly due to the Big 3.. they are..

home - 66
road - 30


the rest of the SonCon..

home - 5
road - 6

i guess i cant complain since it is nice but dang that is sad for the rest of the conference... especially in the total number of games played!

[GannonFan]

You'd give UMass the home game?

Before last season, when they were seeded, UMass' last playoff home game was Lehigh in the 2nd Round in 1998. They were on the road in the first round that year. In between, they were outbid for a home game in 2003. In other words, they only had home games in recent memory when they were seeded and had to be the home team. There's not a lot to go on, but unless the committee is desperate for a UMass-Fordham matchup, I'd be a bit surprised if the Minutemen have outbid others for one of those home games xtwocentsx



Remember, that's me thinking SIU bids for a home game. Given the choice between sending UMass or Fordham to Montana, I went with the lower ranked team xpeacex

Why do I need to tell a Colgate fan this???? UMass didn't lose the bid to host in 2003, they got paired with a Colgate team that was the #4 seed that year - Colgate was assured a home game with the minimum bid, per rule. UMass could've bid the US GNP and it wouldn't have mattered. xcoffeex

[TheValleyRaider]

What makes Holy Cross's season that much better than Albany that they would be in consideration for an at-large, yet Albany doesn't find its way into any whispers?

Albany
6-3
SOS: 66 (massey)

3 Losses:
Montana (4)*
Hofstra (18)
Colgate (NR)

Key Win:
Fordham (24)*


Holy Cross
6-3
SOS: 59 (massey)

3 Losses:
UMass (8)*
Yale (10) –safe to say Yale would get an at-large if they wanted one.
Fordham (24)*

Key Win:
Harvard (ORV)

*AQ clinched.
Rankings taken from AGS poll only.

******DISCLAIMER: I DON'T THINK EITHER SHOULD GET AN AT-LARGE******

Fair point. I went with HC as one of the at-large possibilities because in this exercise, GPI rank matters. Albany (for better or worse) ranks 45th. The other teams I considered all ranked higher (Holy Cross 25, Cal Poly 26, EWU 31 and Dayton 34). 45 was a bit too far for me to think the committee will reach down and pluck them for an at-large. I really only included Dayton because they have 1 loss. HC got consideration because they were the highest-rated team that was outside the top 8 and still eligible.

[TheValleyRaider]

Why do I need to tell a Colgate fan this???? UMass didn't lose the bid to host in 2003, they got paired with a Colgate team that was the #4 seed that year - Colgate was assured a home game with the minimum bid, per rule. UMass could've bid the US GNP and it wouldn't have mattered. xcoffeex

I'm fully aware that's why they were sent to Colgate that year, I have no illusions to the contrary. However, they were also outbid for a home game by Bethune-Cookman, Montana, Western Kentucky and UNI. Now, if the committee sets matchups first, then looks at bids, the view makes sense. Unless anyone here's been in that room when they put the field together, I'm not sure we can say that. I've never heard that that's how it's constructed, but if someone can show that to me, I'll be glad to implement the changes.

[danefan]

Fair point. I went with HC as one of the at-large possibilities because in this exercise, GPI rank matters. Albany (for better or worse) ranks 45th. The other teams I considered all ranked higher (Holy Cross 25, Cal Poly 26, EWU 31 and Dayton 34). 45 was a bit too far for me to think the committee will reach down and pluck them for an at-large. I really only included Dayton because they have 1 loss. HC got consideration because they were the highest-rated team that was outside the top 8 and still eligible.

OK, I missed the GPI portion of the analysis. Sloppy reading on my side.

BTW, I am sort of baffled at why HC is 25 in the GPI.....but that's a whole other thread.xthumbsupx

[89Hen]

unless the committee is desperate for a UMass-Fordham matchup, I'd be a bit surprised if the Minutemen have outbid others for one of those home games xtwocentsx
Eastern Washington
New Hampshire
Delaware State
Fordham
Richmond
Elon
Southern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky

I wouldn't be surprised given that list.

[GannonFan]

I'm fully aware that's why they were sent to Colgate that year, I have no illusions to the contrary. However, they were also outbid for a home game by Bethune-Cookman, Montana, Western Kentucky and UNI. Now, if the committee sets matchups first, then looks at bids, the view makes sense. Unless anyone here's been in that room when they put the field together, I'm not sure we can say that. I've never heard that that's how it's constructed, but if someone can show that to me, I'll be glad to implement the changes.

That's the rumor on how they do it, and frankly, with regionalization in the first round or two, I think that probably happens more now than it did before. But I agree, there is more than enough reason to be skeptical of a closed door process.

[AZGrizFan]

Let's be honest, the CAA has never really come close to getting half the conference in - that'd be 6 teams. We got 4 in, once. Most of the time it's either 2 or 3, which is far below that half threshold.

It's called hyperbole. Think about that, and get back to me. xpeacex

[GannonFan]

It's called hyperbole. Think about that, and get back to me. xpeacex

No, I get it - like when you use hyperbole to talk about all the good teams in the Big Sky - look, I even used it in a sentence!!! :p :p :p :p :p

[Maroons]

Eastern Washington
New Hampshire
Delaware State
Fordham
Richmond
Elon
Southern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky

I wouldn't be surprised given that list.

EKU's AD has gone on record as saying that the Colonels will bid agressively if given the chance. For whatever it's worth... there you have it. If Eastern goes, we'll see if that means anything.

[UncleSam]

On average the SoCon gets as gotten as many in each year as the CAA..





But in the CAA it's not always the same three. ;)

[89Hen]

EKU's AD has gone on record as saying that the Colonels will bid agressively if given the chance. For whatever it's worth... there you have it. If Eastern goes, we'll see if that means anything.
Oddly enough I had EKU hosting in last week's version of The Valley Raider's Bracketology and got questioned by an EKU fan (was it you?). xeyebrowx