CAA Slugfest

[KAUMASS]

Remaining games and thoughts potential playoff teams. Down to 6 left.

Delaware- 8-1 (5-1). H-Richmond, @ Villanova.
UMass- 7-2 (5-1) H-UNH, @ Hofstra.
UNH-6-3(3-3)-@ UMass, H-Maine
Hofstra 7-2, (4-2)- H-Northeastern, H-UMass
Richmond-7-2(5-1)-@ Delaware, H -William & Mary

All of these games will be difficult for all teams involved. My thoughts are:

All of the above teams probably should win at least 1 game remaining on thier schedule. Possibilities are crazy to what can happen. Some may drop 2, some may win 2. They all could go 1-1. Can you imagine how crazy the AQ would be? Buckle your seatbelts.

UNH must win out.
Delaware must win one more game to reach 8 Division 1 wins.
UMass-must win one more game.
Hofstra-must win 2. If they lose one and are 8-3, I think they are on the bubble for an at large.
Richmond-must win one.



Who do you guys think has the toughest 2 games left? I think UMass closely followed by Delaware.

[UDBlueLotFan]

UD doesxrulesx
1. UR beat UNH(UMass's next opp); UNH beat UDxmadx
2. Nova beat Hofstra(UMass's last opp);"nova sucks"xnodx

[jmufootball2]

So you're putting JMU out?

[TheValleyRaider]

Delaware- 8-1 (5-1). H-Richmond, @ Villanova.
UMass- 7-2 (5-1) H-UNH, @ Hofstra.
UNH-6-3(3-3)-@ UMass, H-Maine
Hofstra 7-2, (4-2)- H-Northeastern, H-UMass
Richmond-7-2(5-1)-@ Delaware, H -William & Mary

UNH must win out.
Delaware must win one more game to reach 8 Division 1 wins.
UMass-must win one more game.
Hofstra-must win 2. If they lose one and are 8-3, I think they are on the bubble for an at large.
Richmond-must win one.

If Hofstra wins only 1 of their last two, they'd be lucky to be on the bubble. Either they beat Northeastern, which means the only 2 good teams on their schedule (UMass and UNH) beat them on Long Island, or they beat UMass, which means they took a beating from Northeastern. Beating UMass is the far better option for their chances, but losing one of those last two could seriously doom the possibilities.

Hofstra is hurt, really, by being possibly the 5th CAA team, an unprecedented number which would be difficult to justify in that case, I think xtwocentsx

[Col Hogan]

I agree that UMass hs the toughest remaining schedule...compounded by yesterday's loss to URI...

UNH's lack of a run defense has been exposed...and should be exploitable...yet yesterday when UMass needed to run the ball, they continued to try the passing game...I hope that is not the case next week for UMass...

I've seen Lawrence and Nelson control a game when allowed...why didn't Coach Brown go that way in the wind and rain yesterday???

[Uncle Buck]

HU is @ Northeastern this week.

As for HU, we MUST win out or no playoffs. Our schedule won't measure up to some of the other potential 8-3's.

As for the remaining games - I think UNH has a tough win NOW slate with Umass this week and a rivalry game following. I have a funny feeling though that UNH will get by UMass and continue to shake up the CAA.

Richmond will have it very tough going to UD, but they should be able to get by W&M. It's too tough to call as it seems anyone can win on any given day.

[WrenFGun]

Playoffs start now for UNH. Their quality of wins, assuming they beat UMass (which is the only purpose for discussion) should get them in, despite a terrible loss to Northeastern. The way I look at it is, UNH and JMU need to win out and they're both in. UD and UR are in with 1 win. If UMass falls to UNH, the game between Hofstra and UMass will decide who gets the fifth spot. This is a four team league, at most, if UNH falls to UMass and then Hofstra does the same.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

So much for playoff prognostications. UNH could be out with a win over UMASS and a rivalry loss to a tougher than advertised Maine team. UMASS could lose to UNH and Hofstra and go from CAA darling to also ran. It is NOT out of the realm of possibility that we could see actually see only Delaware (a lock at even 8-3) and Hofstra in the playoffs!

[UNHWildCats]

So much for playoff prognostications. UNH could be out with a win over UMASS and a rivalry loss to a tougher than advertised Maine team. UMASS could lose to UNH and Hofstra and go from CAA darling to also ran. It is NOT out of the realm of possibility that we could see actually see only Delaware (a lock at even 8-3) and Hofstra in the playoffs!

I think its unlikely only two CAA teams make it.

If you look at the teams that are at large eligible and then take out teams that are unlikely (NEC, Pioneer) Its possible a 7-4 team could make it... Elon and Wofford both need to win to be playoff eligible, if they lose the SoCon becomes a 2 bid league. If Eastern Washington loses another game the Big Sky is a 1 bid league. Cal Poly has NDSU which could end its slim hopes. the Southland will be a 1 bid league. The Patriot could sneak in a second team at 7-4 though if UNH were to beat Umass and lose by a point or two to Maine, UNH may be mopre deserving at 7-4 then a Patriot team.

What seemed unlikely a week ago and while maybe still a bit of a stretch the MEAC could actually get two teams in.

[TheValleyRaider]

If you look at the teams that are at large eligible and then take out teams that are unlikely (NEC, Pioneer) Its possible a 7-4 team could make it... Elon and Wofford both need to win to be playoff eligible, if they lose the SoCon becomes a 2 bid league. If Eastern Washington loses another game the Big Sky is a 1 bid league. Cal Poly has NDSU which could end its slim hopes. the Southland will be a 1 bid league. The Patriot could sneak in a second team at 7-4 though if UNH were to beat Umass and lose by a point or two to Maine, UNH may be more deserving at 7-4 then a Patriot team.

If the Patriot League sneaks in a 2nd team, it'll be an 8-3 Holy Cross (Wins over Lafayette, Colgate) or an 8-3 Colgate (Wins over Georgetown, Holy Cross), and even then a lot would have to go right, mostly some of these CAA and SoCon teams near the top of their conferences to struggle mightly at season's end. If the committee's feeling generous to one of the lower auto-bid conferences, it could be Colgate/Holy Cross vs. an OVC team (EIU, JSU) for the last at-large. While possible, it is at best a long-shot, IMHO

[KAUMASS]

So you're putting JMU out?

Forgive my UMass education. 6 includes JMU.

JMU has W&Mary and Towsen left. JMU must win both games. Thanks for the question.

[Tilldog40]

UNH shouldn't make the playoffs with 3 conference loses already. Especially losing to NU.

[KAUMASS]

There are a ton of possibilities left. Heck, UMass and Delaware could potentially drop their last two and be home for Thanksgiving. Hofstra, UNH, JMU and Richmond could all win out and be in the playoffs.

If JMU and UNH win next week, the conference goes down to the wire with 6 teams battling. Loyalty to UMass aside, can it get any better as a fan?

If you thought UMass and UNH could lose to Northeastern and URI respectively, (regardless of weather), let's see what the next two weeks bring.

[KAUMASS]

UNH shouldn't make the playoffs with 3 conference loses already. Especially losing to NU.


Not sure about that. We will find out Saturday when UNH plays UMass.
Northeastern is a good football team, record aside. If UMass beats UNH, well then that decides it as UNH goes home. If UNH beats UMass and Maine, that will probably get them in.

[Nebuta]

Remaining games and thoughts potential playoff teams. Down to 6 left.

Delaware- 8-1 (5-1). H-Richmond, @ Villanova.
UMass- 7-2 (5-1) H-UNH, @ Hofstra.
UNH-6-3(3-3)-@ UMass, H-Maine
Hofstra 7-2, (4-2)- H-Northeastern, H-UMass
Richmond-7-2(5-1)-@ Delaware, H -William & Mary

All of these games will be difficult for all teams involved. My thoughts are:

All of the above teams probably should win at least 1 game remaining on thier schedule. Possibilities are crazy to what can happen. Some may drop 2, some may win 2. They all could go 1-1. Can you imagine how crazy the AQ would be? Buckle your seatbelts.

UNH must win out.
Delaware must win one more game to reach 8 Division 1 wins.
UMass-must win one more game.
Hofstra-must win 2. If they lose one and are 8-3, I think they are on the bubble for an at large.
Richmond-must win one.



Who do you guys think has the toughest 2 games left? I think UMass closely followed by Delaware.

So does UMass, Hofstra and Richmond need one more game to reach 8 Division 1 wins.xrulesx

[UMass922]

I'm not sure UMass is an absolute lock with just one more win. At 8-3, it will depend on how things shake out with at-large contenders in other conferences. If we win the last two we'll obviously be in--but these are two very tough games, and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose them both, the way we've been playing lately.

UNH, Hofstra, and JMU need to win out. UNH will get in at 8-3 with their strength of schedule. Hofstra might have a shot at 8-3 if a lot of other teams around the country falter. The problem is a lack of quality wins--which, frankly is the same problem for UMass (though our schedule is a little stronger than Hofstra's, and we'll add another quality win by winning one of the last two). JMU will not be a lock at 8-3, but they'll be in line ahead of Hofstra and possibly UMass.

Richmond has some excellent wins, and if they add Delaware to that list this week, they should be in no matter what happens in their last game. Even if they don't beat UD, they'll still be a pretty solid bet as long as they split--their 8-3 would be stronger than Hofstra's, UMass's, JMU's, and Delaware's.

Delaware is in with a split. If they lose both, I think they'll be out, considering that they'd only have 7 D-I wins and would have lost their last two games of the year--not something I think the selection committee would be keen on. Their remaining games (vs. Richmond and @ Villanova) are challenging ones, so nothing's certain about this team yet.

So whoever wins the UD-Richmond game will be a lock for the playoffs--which also means that the team that loses that game will have to win its finale. I'll predict that both of these teams get in, but it won't be surprising to see one of them falter.

I'll also predict that two of the remaining four teams (UMass, UNH, Hofstra, JMU) get in. So my guess will be that the CAA gets three or four teams in. Five is unlikely at this point but not impossible.

[Nebuta]

Yeah I agree UMass922, I dont know if UMass is an absolute lock after one more win. They would be losing 2 of their last 3 going into the playoffs.

UNH gets 8-3 I believe they are in just because of SoS.
Winner of the UD/UR gets in.
JMU needs to win out.. They have a better shot then most.
Hofstra needs to just win out.

[BDKJMU]

JMU will not be a lock at 8-3, but they'll be in line ahead of Hofstra and possibly UMass.

JMU at 8-3 vs UNH at 8-3.

6-2 CAA vs 5-3 and won head to head by 17.

JMU: Only 1-2 "big" wins: UNH, maybe Nova (would a 7-4 Nova team be considered a big win?). but no "bad" losses, JMU would have lost to UNC, by 1 to playoff (likely) UR, and by 3 to playoff (likely) UD.

UNH: would have 3-4 "big" wins: Marshall, UD, UMass, Hofstra (JMU beating a 7-4 Nova should be considered as good as UNH beating an 8-3 (likely) Hofstra), 2 not "bad" losses, (JMU, UR) but a BAD loss to Northeastern.

I think a JMU @ 8-3 would be considered ahead of UNH at 8-3. However, if both go 8-3 both will get in IMHO. Obviously the odds are greater against UNH winning the next 2.

[KAUMASS]

I'm not sure UMass is an absolute lock with just one more win. At 8-3, it will depend on how things shake out with at-large contenders in other conferences. If we win the last two we'll obviously be in--but these are two very tough games, and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose them both, the way we've been playing lately.

UNH, Hofstra, and JMU need to win out. UNH will get in at 8-3 with their strength of schedule. Hofstra might have a shot at 8-3 if a lot of other teams around the country falter. The problem is a lack of quality wins--which, frankly is the same problem for UMass (though our schedule is a little stronger than Hofstra's, and we'll add another quality win by winning one of the last two). JMU will not be a lock at 8-3, but they'll be in line ahead of Hofstra and possibly UMass.

Richmond has some excellent wins, and if they add Delaware to that list this week, they should be in no matter what happens in their last game. Even if they don't beat UD, they'll still be a pretty solid bet as long as they split--their 8-3 would be stronger than Hofstra's, UMass's, JMU's, and Delaware's.

Delaware is in with a split. If they lose both, I think they'll be out, considering that they'd only have 7 D-I wins and would have lost their last two games of the year--not something I think the selection committee would be keen on. Their remaining games (vs. Richmond and @ Villanova) are challenging ones, so nothing's certain about this team yet.

So whoever wins the UD-Richmond game will be a lock for the playoffs--which also means that the team that loses that game will have to win its finale. I'll predict that both of these teams get in, but it won't be surprising to see one of them falter.

I'll also predict that two of the remaining four teams (UMass, UNH, Hofstra, JMU) get in. So my guess will be that the CAA gets three or four teams in. Five is unlikely at this point but not impossible.

I could not have said it better...right along the lines I was thinking.xthumbsupx

[UMass922]

UNH shouldn't make the playoffs with 3 conference loses already. Especially losing to NU.

The number of conference losses is only one piece of data. You have to look at the team's whole resume and compare how it stacks up with other at-large contenders around the country. An 8-3 UNH would have wins over Marshall, Delaware, Hofstra, and UMass. That would certainly be one of the strongest 8-3 records in the country. I just don't see why it matters whether the losses come in-conference or out-of-conference. Would you feel better about UNH if they'd lost to Dartmouth or Iona instead of Northeastern? UNH's other two losses are to JMU and Richmond, both good teams. So do you really think UNH should be considered solely on the basis of one bad loss, at the expense of everything else on its resume?

[drpnut]

UNH is already so on the bubble already. Even winning out doesn't put then in. A SoCon team that is 8-3,5-2 gets in over UNH at 8-3,4-3. Watch it and see.

[UMass922]

JMU at 8-3 vs UNH at 8-3.

6-2 CAA vs 5-3 and won head to head by 17.

JMU: Only 1-2 "big" wins: UNH, maybe Nova (would a 7-4 Nova team be considered a big win?). but no "bad" losses, JMU would have lost to UNC, by 1 to playoff (likely) UR, and by 3 to playoff (likely) UD.

UNH: would have 3-4 "big" wins: Marshall, UD, UMass, Hofstra (JMU beating a 7-4 Nova should be considered as good as UNH beating an 8-3 (likely) Hofstra), 2 not "bad" losses, (JMU, UR) but a BAD loss to Northeastern.

I think a JMU @ 8-3 would be considered ahead of UNH at 8-3. However, if both go 8-3 both will get in IMHO. Obviously the odds are greater against UNH winning the next 2.

It's a close call with these two teams, and I wouldn't be surprised if the committee took JMU ahead of UNH should both finish 8-3. The committee does seem to value head-to-head wins a lot--last year they took a 7-4 Montana State with a D-II loss over a 7-4 Portland State that played three I-A games but lost the head-to-head with MSU. So head-to-head wins seem to trump strengh of schedule, everything else being equal. I wonder, though, if the fact that the UNH-JMU came so early in the season (it was the first game for both teams, I believe) diminishes its significance somewhat when taken in the context of each team's overall resume. Personally, I value quality wins a lot, and am willing to excuse one bad loss if a team has demonstrated that it's capable of beating playoff-caliber teams (that was the case I made last year for UNI over MSU and PSU--but obviously the committee doesn't share my reasoning on this).

So in short I would say that I prefer teams that have proven they can win big games, and UNH has offered more such proof than JMU, IMHO. But the head-to-head win by JMU does complicate things a lot, so I can see your side of it.

Hopefully UMass will win this Saturday and render all this UNH discussion moot.

[UMass922]

UNH is already so on the bubble already. Even winning out doesn't put then in. A SoCon team that is 8-3,5-2 gets in over UNH at 8-3,4-3. Watch it and see.

Appalachian St. is the only 8-3 SoCon team that I could see getting in ahead of an 8-3 UNH. Most of the SoCon contenders have D-II games on their schedules, whereas UNH has played a full D-I slate and beaten an FBS team to boot. I'm not sure how a SoCon team with 7 D-I wins would get in ahead of a UNH team with 8 D-I wins (the exception being ASU, due to the magnitude of the Michigan win).