My take on the SoCon and playoffs

[GSU Eagle]

Feel free to comment on this analysis

Right now 4 teams with 2 losses:
Elon
GSU
Wofford
Appalachian St.

Games left:
GSU has Furman at home and at Colorado St.
Appalachian has Western Carolina and Chattanooga (both at home I think)
Elon is at Citadel and home vs. Stony Brook
Wofford plays at Chattanooga

Right now I would predict all 4 make the playoffs.

For GSU I think if we beat Furman we are in, regardless of what happens at Colorado St. A lost to Furman and a win at Colorado St. would put us squarely on the bubble and it would depend on what other bubble teams around the country do.

Appalachian is in very good shape. I can't see them losing at home to WCU or Chattanooga

Elon could be in some danger if they lose at Citadel. A loss there would probably put them on the outside looking in, particularly if GSU, Wofford and Appalachian all won to have a 3 way tie for the SoCon championship. I would favor Elon to win at Citadel right now. If they do they should be in.

Wofford has 1 game left at Chattanooga. If they win I can't see how they get left out.

If all 4 get in then I look for GSU and Appalachian to host 1st round games. I don't think there is much chance at all for any of the 4 to be a top 4 seed.

[ElonPride]

Feel free to comment on this analysis

Right now 4 teams with 2 losses:
Elon
GSU
Wofford
Appalachian St.

Games left:
GSU has Furman at home and at Colorado St.
Appalachian has Western Carolina and Chattanooga (both at home I think)
Elon is at Citadel and home vs. Stony Brook
Wofford plays at Chattanooga

Right now I would predict all 4 make the playoffs.

For GSU I think if we beat Furman we are in, regardless of what happens at Colorado St. A lost to Furman and a win at Colorado St. would put us squarely on the bubble and it would depend on what other bubble teams around the country do.

Appalachian is in very good shape. I can't see them losing at home to WCU or Chattanooga

Elon could be in some danger if they lose at Citadel. A loss there would probably put them on the outside looking in, particularly if GSU, Wofford and Appalachian all won to have a 3 way tie for the SoCon championship. I would favor Elon to win at Citadel right now. If they do they should be in.

Wofford has 1 game left at Chattanooga. If they win I can't see how they get left out.

If all 4 get in then I look for GSU and Appalachian to host 1st round games. I don't think there is much chance at all for any of the 4 to be a top 4 seed.

Elon MUST win out to make the playoffs. If Elon loses to El Cid, then the team won't be able to qualify for the 7 D-I win minimum.

This loss at Furman sure threw a hitch in the SoCon standings.

[GSU Eagle]

So Elon either beats Citadel and gets the SoCon auto-bid or losses and misses the playoffs altogether. Interesting.

[dungeonjoe]

Wofford has 1 game left at Chattanooga. If they win I can't see how they get left out.



I wish I shared your optimism; I think the loss to GSU will loom very large on our playoff hopes.

[ChiefGSU275]

I dont know if Citadel can keep up the scoring with Elon, unless Lawson comes back this week. I look for elon to win out, putting them in the auto for the SoCon.

However, I HOPE they lose, so GSU can move up and take the autobid away.

[T-Dog]

All I hope for is Wofford to lose at Nooga and GaSo to lose at Furman so we can be tied with Elon and we have that tiebreaker at least.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I wish I shared your optimism; I think the loss to GSU will loom very large on our playoff hopes.

why? Better take a closer look at the playoff picture. If you guys are 8-3 I think you have a very good chance of getting in.

[GoldandBlack]

why? Better take a closer look at the playoff picture. If you guys are 8-3 I think you have a very good chance of getting in.

Past experience-:(

[AppStateold299]

All I have to say is way to go SoCon for proving this is the toughest conference in the land this year. It is unfortunate that we beat the crap out of each other, but it also makes it very interresting. More well rounded from top to bottom. Congrats to Elon on the amazing year.

[blueballs]

GSUEagle:

There's one possible scenario that you left out: What if GSU sweeps Furman and Colorado State? And before any of you dismiss that take a look at CSU's rushing defense stats...

... if GSU sweeps and finishes 9-2 (two OT losses due in large part to dubious calls) with road wins over ASU, Wofford and CSU I would imagine they would be looking real hard at hosting at least two rounds providing they win the first and would have an outside chance at a seed depending on how the rest of the country shakes out.

A lot of football left to be played, and all just speculation at this point.

[APPST '93]

I wish I shared your optimism; I think the loss to GSU will loom very large on our playoff hopes.

Beat UTC and you are in! It's that simple.

On a side note:
Here's the So Con tiebreaker format.

SoCon Tiebreaker Method: The first priority in breaking a tie is head to head competition . . . If two teams finish with identical conference records, then the tiebreaker goes to the team that won the regular season contest . . . If a tie exists between more than one team, then the first criteria remains head to head competition . . . Take each team?s record against the other teams that are involved in the tie . . . If one team?s record is superior to the other two, that team wins the tiebreaker . . . If one team?s record is inferior to the other two, that team is eliminated from the equation and the other two teams break their tie based on head to head competition . . . For example, if Team A, Team B and Team C all finish with 6-2 league records, but Team A is 2-0 vs. the other two tied teams, Team A wins the tie breaker . . . If team A was 0-2 vs. B and C, and B and C were both 1-1, then A is eliminated and B and C break their tie based on their head to head competition . . . If all three teams went 1-1 against each other, the next tiebreaker criteria is how each team fared against the next highest ranked team in the standings not involved in the tie . . . In the case of a three-way tie for first, it would be the fourth place team . . . If team A defeated Team D, while B and C lost to D, then A wins the tiebreaker . . . If C lost to D and A and B both won, then C is eliminated from the equation and A and B break their tie based on their head to head meeting . . . If the results against the next highest ranked team in the standings does not break the tie, then you continue down the standings until the tie is broken . . . If that does not break the tie, then it is decided by a blind draw.

[terrierbob]

I wish I shared your optimism; I think the loss to GSU will loom very large on our playoff hopes.

If Elon is a relative newcomer, then shouldn't we get the nod?

[terrierbob]

All I have to say is way to go SoCon for proving this is the toughest conference in the land this year. It is unfortunate that we beat the crap out of each other, but it also makes it very interresting. More well rounded from top to bottom. Congrats to Elon on the amazing year.


SEC lite.

[Seven Would Be Nice]

SEC lite.

The original SEC.

[ElonPride]

I dont know if Citadel can keep up the scoring with Elon, unless Lawson comes back this week. I look for elon to win out, putting them in the auto for the SoCon.

However, I HOPE they lose, so GSU can move up and take the autobid away.

I wish I shared your optimism.

Elon had to do the "SC Tour" this year, and I just don't feel that our D can hold El Cid. There are just too many injuries and too many freshman playing right now.

But maybe the same team will show up that beat Wofford. It's been a crazy year in the SoCon, so who knows? xsmiley_wix

[ErksEagles]

And before any of you dismiss that take a look at CSU's rushing defense stats...

SDSU's QB in this video destroys CSU's defense and he doesnt appear to be a mobile quarterback like Jayson Foster. Hopefully this will be us in 2 weeks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDiv2hOLPdk

[AZGrizFan]

All I have to say is way to go SoCon for proving this is the toughest conference in the land this year. It is unfortunate that we beat the crap out of each other, but it also makes it very interresting. More well rounded from top to bottom. Congrats to Elon on the amazing year.

Parity <> toughest conference. xcoffeex

[appfan2008]

Beat UTC and you are in! It's that simple.

On a side note:
Here's the So Con tiebreaker format.

SoCon Tiebreaker Method: The first priority in breaking a tie is head to head competition . . . If two teams finish with identical conference records, then the tiebreaker goes to the team that won the regular season contest . . . If a tie exists between more than one team, then the first criteria remains head to head competition . . . Take each team?s record against the other teams that are involved in the tie . . . If one team?s record is superior to the other two, that team wins the tiebreaker . . . If one team?s record is inferior to the other two, that team is eliminated from the equation and the other two teams break their tie based on head to head competition . . . For example, if Team A, Team B and Team C all finish with 6-2 league records, but Team A is 2-0 vs. the other two tied teams, Team A wins the tie breaker . . . If team A was 0-2 vs. B and C, and B and C were both 1-1, then A is eliminated and B and C break their tie based on their head to head competition . . . If all three teams went 1-1 against each other, the next tiebreaker criteria is how each team fared against the next highest ranked team in the standings not involved in the tie . . . In the case of a three-way tie for first, it would be the fourth place team . . . If team A defeated Team D, while B and C lost to D, then A wins the tiebreaker . . . If C lost to D and A and B both won, then C is eliminated from the equation and A and B break their tie based on their head to head meeting . . . If the results against the next highest ranked team in the standings does not break the tie, then you continue down the standings until the tie is broken . . . If that does not break the tie, then it is decided by a blind draw.

so elon has it if the season ended today

[lizrdgizrd]

Parity <> toughest conference. xcoffeex
We'll find out one way or the other come playoff time. xcoffeex

[AZGrizFan]

We'll find out one way or the other come playoff time. xcoffeex

It's just another case of the double standard on this board. SoCon members beat each other up, and it's a "tough" conference. BSC members beat each other up, and it's because it's a "mediocre" conference.

But, you are right about one thing: we will find out come playoff time. xnodx

Montana State has no one to blame but themselves for not making the playoffs. If Weber had played their first four games like they've played their last five, they'd be dangerous in the playoffs as well. And EWU has put themselves in a position to have to run the table, then depend on the committee's heart to get in and do some damage. They've all made their beds, now they've got to sleep in them.... xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx

[gophoenix]

so elon has it if the season ended today

Yes.

If Elon beats The Citadel and GSU and Wofford lose and App wins out, App gets it. Any other situation where Elon wins and Elon gets it. Of course, if we lose, there of a ton of other scenarios. And us losing is as likely as a winning is.

[Saint3333]

It's just another case of the double standard on this board. SoCon members beat each other up, and it's a "tough" conference. BSC members beat each other up, and it's because it's a "mediocre" conference.

But, you are right about one thing: we will find out come playoff time. xnodx

Montana State has no one to blame but themselves for not making the playoffs. If Weber had played their first four games like they've played their last five, they'd be dangerous in the playoffs as well. And EWU has put themselves in a position to have to run the table, then depend on the committee's heart to get in and do some damage. They've all made their beds, now they've got to sleep in them.... xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx

Check the out of conference records of the SoCon AZG and get back to me. xcoffeex

[Jerbearasu]

It's just another case of the double standard on this board. SoCon members beat each other up, and it's a "tough" conference. BSC members beat each other up, and it's because it's a "mediocre" conference.
The difference being every single year Montana finishes 8-0 in the BSC and everyone else finishes with 2 or 3 losses. I don't think half of this board could name the last time that Montana did not win the BSC without looking it up.
The past few years App has won the SoCon but 3 other teams have won it in the past 5 years as well. The Gateway and CAA also both have many winners and it is because the whole conference is good.
This is not a knock on Montana because I have all of the respect in the world for them but they have only won the NC twice even though they have been to the playoffs every year for a decade and a half. In that time span 3 different SoCon teams have won the NC (5 NC's between those 3 teams), 4 have been in the Championship game and 5 have been in the semi's... That is the definition of a solid conference.

[AlphaSigMD]

Yep. The only 2 ways ASU can win the autobid is for Elon to win, and for GSU and Wofford to lose, or for all 3 to lose.

Not likely, but not impossible either.

Either way, I'm pulling for Furman like crazy.

However, if things shake out like I think they will

Wofford will beat UTC
GSU will beat Furman
Elon will lose to the Citadel
ASU will win out.

ASU 9-2
GSU 8-3 (gets autobid, after beating furman, then losing to colorado st.)
Wofford 8-3 (gets a bid, and goes on the road)
Elon will go 7-4 and will miss the playoffs due to only 6 D1 wins.

Depending on what happens with Delaware and Southern Ill in the next 2 weeks (neither of them having cake walks) this could be a crazy (possibly unprecidented) year with ASU getting a seed at 9-2 without the autobid, and GSU not getting a seed at 8-3 with the autobid and SoCon championship.

[Cincy App]

Yes.

If Elon beats The Citadel and GSU and Wofford lose and App wins out, App gets it. Any other situation where Elon wins and Elon gets it. Of course, if we lose, there of a ton of other scenarios. And us losing is as likely as a winning is.

That's good news for Elon and bad news for Wofford. Wofford is currently the #4 team overall in the SoCon and thus, firmly on the bubble right now. Of course, much will likely change on the field over the next two weeks.

[ElonPride]

That's good news for Elon and bad news for Wofford. Wofford is currently the #4 team overall in the SoCon and thus, firmly on the bubble right now. Of course, much will likely change on the field over the next two weeks.

Actually, as it stands right now, Wofford is #3 and App is #4.

Currently 3 teams are tied for 1st (Elon, GSU and Wofford). Elon still holds the head to head tie breaker over GSU & Wofford.

[bobbythekidd]

It's just another case of the double standard on this board. SoCon members beat each other up, and it's a "tough" conference. BSC members beat each other up, and it's because it's a "mediocre" conference.
Az no one said the Big Sky was mediocre. Weak was how it is described.xlolx

All this talk will end in 3 weeks.

[blueballs]

All I know about the SoCon is that a member has been in the semi-final round 10 out of the last 12 years and have had a team in the title game 8 out of the last 12 years, winning the title 5 times. I'm not too sure any other conference can boast playoff success along those lines.

[GreatAppSt]

All I know about the SoCon is that a member has been in the semi-final round 10 out of the last 12 years and have had a team in the title game 8 out of the last 12 years, winning the title 5 times. I'm not too sure any other conference can boast playoff success along those lines.

Not sure?xeyebrowx They can't.xnonox xrulesx

[Cincy App]

Actually, as it stands right now, Wofford is #3 and App is #4.

Currently 3 teams are tied for 1st (Elon, GSU and Wofford). Elon still holds the head to head tie breaker over GSU & Wofford.

The only position that matters in conference standings is which team gets the autobid (ie - Elon as of today). All games count for at-large selections including the nonconference games. Thus, Wofford with 3 losses is behind ASU and GSU with 2 losses.

[JackTwice]

Beat UTC and you are in! It's that simple.

On a side note:
Here's the So Con tiebreaker format.

SoCon Tiebreaker Method: The first priority in breaking a tie is head to head competition . . . If two teams finish with identical conference records, then the tiebreaker goes to the team that won the regular season contest . . . If a tie exists between more than one team, then the first criteria remains head to head competition . . . Take each team?s record against the other teams that are involved in the tie . . . If one team?s record is superior to the other two, that team wins the tiebreaker . . . If one team?s record is inferior to the other two, that team is eliminated from the equation and the other two teams break their tie based on head to head competition . . . For example, if Team A, Team B and Team C all finish with 6-2 league records, but Team A is 2-0 vs. the other two tied teams, Team A wins the tie breaker . . . If team A was 0-2 vs. B and C, and B and C were both 1-1, then A is eliminated and B and C break their tie based on their head to head competition . . . If all three teams went 1-1 against each other, the next tiebreaker criteria is how each team fared against the next highest ranked team in the standings not involved in the tie . . . In the case of a three-way tie for first, it would be the fourth place team . . . If team A defeated Team D, while B and C lost to D, then A wins the tiebreaker . . . If C lost to D and A and B both won, then C is eliminated from the equation and A and B break their tie based on their head to head meeting . . . If the results against the next highest ranked team in the standings does not break the tie, then you continue down the standings until the tie is broken . . . If that does not break the tie, then it is decided by a blind draw.

I might be mistaken but this is actually impossible