One less auto-bid ?? One more at-large?

[gofurman]

If this was posted in some other thread (WAC or something) I apologize but I found this very interesting when I saw it on the Furman board !


The Big South and OVC have now made an "association" for 2023.

https://ovcsports.com/news/2022/12/5/big-south-and-ovc-announce-2023-football-conference-schedule.aspx

*If this is what I think it is then that is one LESS auto-bid and thus one more at-large I would have to think. I mean, now the Big South and OVC both have an auto-bid... joined they would only get one Auto-bid (though maybe they would generally get the extra at-large that comes about).

"BRENTWOOD, Tenn. -- The Big South Conference and the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) announced today its football conference game schedule for the 2023 season, which marks the first year of the joint association of the league’s football member institutions."

* Is this how you all are reading this? (seems plain to me, tow auto-bid conferences combine that frees up one bid that was previously an auto-bid ...)

[NY Crusader 2010]

Currently there are 11 auto-bids and 13 at-large.

Next year, it would go to 10 and 14 -- or back to the way it was before the WAC-ASUN auto-bid was created two years ago.

**MVFC, Big Sky, Southland, SoCon, OVC-Big South, WAC-ASUN, CAA, Patriot, NEC, Pioneer** -- that's the list of auto's now.

Per NCAA rule, they could actually decide to shrink the playoff field back down to 20 (10 and 10) if they so choose. But the field was 24 for almost a decade with 10 auto-bids so don't see that changing.

[taper]

Currently there are 11 auto-bids and 13 at-large.

Next year, it would go to 10 and 14 -- or back to the way it was before the WAC-ASUN auto-bid was created two years ago.

**MVFC, Big Sky, Southland, SoCon, OVC-Big South, WAC-ASUN, CAA, Patriot, NEC, Pioneer** -- that's the list of auto's now.

Per NCAA rule, they could actually decide to shrink the playoff field back down to 20 (10 and 10) if they so choose. But the field was 24 for almost a decade with 10 auto-bids so don't see that changing.
What rule? If you're thinking of needing as many at large as autos that's a myth. That rule does not exist.

[TypicalTribe96]

I wish they could go back to 16 but at least they should scale back to 20, not that they ever will. So much mediocrity in the last few spots.

[Professor Chaos]

What rule? If you're thinking of needing as many at large as autos that's a myth. That rule does not exist.
I think the rule exists for the men's basketball tournament but that's it. Still, I've seen comments from the commishes from both the Big Sky and MVFC last offseason when it looked like we'd be heading for 12 autos (with the ASUN, WAC, Big South, and OVC each having their own) saying that they wanted playoff expansion due to the decreased at-large bids. 24 is the ideal number IMO so hopefully we keep the at-large bids in the 13-14 range for the foreseeable future so these expansion ideas don't get any traction.

[Bisonator]

16 would be ideal with the number of teams participating in the subdivision but it's not likely to decrease. With 16 you can seed the field, eliminate regionalization, eliminate Thanksgiving games and give every team a bye.

Since it'll likely stay at 24 they need to at least seed 16 and eliminate regionalization.

[NY Crusader 2010]

16 would be ideal with the number of teams participating in the subdivision but it's not likely to decrease. With 16 you can seed the field, eliminate regionalization, eliminate Thanksgiving games and give every team a bye.

Since it'll likely stay at 24 they need to at least seed 16 and eliminate regionalization.

Won't happen. The ONLY NCAA tournaments that AREN'T regionalized are the NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments. So until FCS football generates a $1 billion TV contract, I don't see this setup changing.

[AmsterBison]

Won't happen. The ONLY NCAA tournaments that AREN'T regionalized are the NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments. So until FCS football generates a $1 billion TV contract, I don't see this setup changing.

You don't need $1 billion for this. Wouldn't $5 million be enough?

[MSUBobcat]

You don't need $1 billion for this. Wouldn't $5 million be enough?

I would think $5M would be enough. Or $5M plus the gate revenue that NCAA takes would for sure. I saw somewhere, probably on AGS, that the current TV deal is expiring and is very undervalued in the current contract, so presumably the FCS-NCAA could cover the $5M with a better contract. Ending regionalization would improve the FCS playoffs immensely.

[Catbooster]

I would think $5M would be enough. Or $5M plus the gate revenue that NCAA takes would for sure. I saw somewhere, probably on AGS, that the current TV deal is expiring and is very undervalued in the current contract, so presumably the FCS-NCAA could cover the $5M with a better contract. Ending regionalization would improve the FCS playoffs immensely.
1st round = 8 games, 2nd = 8, quarterfinal = 4, semi = 2, final = 1 game

23 games, $5 million gives about 217k per game. The amount needed per game would vary but not a bad average. If that's in addition to what they get now through the hosting bids, etc. it's probably enough to pay for seeding throughout (although I assume the take from gate receipts would drop if the whole field is seeded and higher seed hosts).

[MSUBobcat]

1st round = 8 games, 2nd = 8, quarterfinal = 4, semi = 2, final = 1 game

23 games, $5 million gives about 217k per game. The amount needed per game would vary but not a bad average. If that's in addition to what they get now through the hosting bids, etc. it's probably enough to pay for seeding throughout (although I assume the take from gate receipts would drop if the whole field is seeded and higher seed hosts).

The NCAA takes their chunk of the net gate receipts OR the bid, whichever is higher. For the NCAA to clear $217k on average per game would be MASSIVE. The game would have to NET $255k for the NC$$'s 85% share to equal $217k. That means the GROSS ticket revenue would have to likely be in the $325-350k range (expenses of 21.5%-27.1%; for comparison, UND's 2019 bid included expenses at 33% of gate revenue). Considering one of the highest attendance schools (SDSU) is selling tickets for $12-27 (though the 300's sections are going for $145), attendance with an average ticket price of $25 would require attendance to be 13k at every playoff game (and an average ticket price of $25 would be higher than what most schools charge). I think only UM in round 1, MSU in round 2 (NDSU was just shy), and MSU and Sac State in the QF had attendances of 13k or more. Call it 5 games out of 20 so far would be meeting the necessary attendance.

A better TV contract though could make up a lot of the slack though.

[Professor Chaos]

I thought I heard/read somewhere that the NCAA was looking to bid out their championship media contracts on a more a la carte basis after this agreement with ESPN runs out in 2024. I'd really love to see what the FCS playoffs TV contract would draw - it's clear ESPN values it putting 8 of the 23 games on their national networks this year. The narrative that the FCS playoffs lose money don't take into account any of the media money and there would be a ton of sporting events/teams/leagues that would lose money if you didn't count media deals in their revenue.

Bidding out the FCS playoffs separately would also put more competitors in play as well I'd think since other media entities like Fox, CBS, etc all already have college football broadcasting crews in place that would probably like to fill that live sports void on those early-mid December weekends.

[Catbooster]

The NCAA takes their chunk of the net gate receipts OR the bid, whichever is higher. For the NCAA to clear $217k on average per game would be MASSIVE. The game would have to NET $255k for the NC$$'s 85% share to equal $217k. That means the GROSS ticket revenue would have to likely be in the $325-350k range (expenses of 21.5%-27.1%; for comparison, UND's 2019 bid included expenses at 33% of gate revenue). Considering one of the highest attendance schools (SDSU) is selling tickets for $12-27 (though the 300's sections are going for $145), attendance with an average ticket price of $25 would require attendance to be 13k at every playoff game (and an average ticket price of $25 would be higher than what most schools charge). I think only UM in round 1, MSU in round 2 (NDSU was just shy), and MSU and Sac State in the QF had attendances of 13k or more. Call it 5 games out of 20 so far would be meeting the necessary attendance.

A better TV contract though could make up a lot of the slack though.
I didn't say anything about the current income from hosting, etc. other than to point out that it likely drops somewhat with full seeding. 217k/game is what the $5 million you were speculating about would amount to.

[MSUBobcat]

I didn't say anything about the current income from hosting, etc. other than to point out that it likely drops somewhat with full seeding. 217k/game is what the $5 million you were speculating about would amount to.

I know. I was telling you that the FCS playoffs are very unlikely to generate the $5M from the NCAA's share of the gate. Many, many games, especially in the first round are lucky to generate $100k for the NCAA. There will have to be another source of income (TV) for the FCS to earn enough to do away with regionalization and just seed the field. This year's first round had attendance of 39,367, per the attendance thread. Let's call it 40k x $25/ticket (probably generous), is $1M. We'll be further generous with expenses of only 20% (it's in the school's interest to stick any expense they can in here, but for the sake of being very generous, I'll low ball at 20%). That is net gate of $800k. NCAA's 85% of that is $680k. So the remaining 15 games now have to generate $4.32M ($288k/game).

Being very generous with $25 average ticket prices and expenses of 20% of gross revenue, you still need an average attendance of 12,788/game.

Tickets sold 12,788
Price/ticket x 25
Gross 319,700
Less 20% expenses (63,940)
Net revenue 255,760
NCAA rev. share x 0.85
NCAA rev./game 217,396
Total playoff games x 23
Total NCAA rev-all games 5,000,108

It is unlikely that the FCS playoffs will ever generate $5M for the NC$$ from ticket sales alone. Our best attended year since 2013 was 2015 which averaged 10,779/game thru the semifinals, per last year's attendance thread. Using the calculation above, that would have generated slightly over $4M for the NCAA leaving a full $1M to come from the chipper. I know the championship's average ticket prices are much higher, but I imagine the cost to get Toyota Stadium is pretty high also. I don't know what the revenue split agreement is but doubt it's the same screw job the NCAA foists upon the host schools.

Edit: Took away my formatting/spaces to make the numbers all line up nicely on the right side.

[ST_Lawson]

Bidding out the FCS playoffs separately would also put more competitors in play as well I'd think since other media entities like Fox, CBS, etc all already have college football broadcasting crews in place that would probably like to fill that live sports void on those early-mid December weekends.

As long as FloSports isn't allowed to bid on it. No amount of money is worth subjecting people to that.

[SCPALADIN]

As long as FloSports isn't allowed to bid on it. No amount of money is worth subjecting people to that.


AMEN

[gofurman]

As long as FloSports isn't allowed to bid on it. No amount of money is worth subjecting people to that.

lol. Good one

[gofurman]

Currently there are 11 auto-bids and 13 at-large.

Next year, it would go to 10 and 14 -- or back to the way it was before the WAC-ASUN auto-bid was created two years ago.

**MVFC, Big Sky, Southland, SoCon, OVC-Big South, WAC-ASUN, CAA, Patriot, NEC, Pioneer** -- that's the list of auto's now.

Per NCAA rule, they could actually decide to shrink the playoff field back down to 20 (10 and 10) if they so choose. But the field was 24 for almost a decade with 10 auto-bids so don't see that changing.

ok. Thanks. That’s what I inferred. 10 and 14. So an additional at-large. While all the seeds won this year (1-8) .. I think often one or so of the non-seeded teams win to make the quarterfinals. Which is impressive on the road AT THE OPPONENTS stadium. This year three or so came very close.

Furman lost by 3 to UIW who scored in last minute or so. (UIW winning by 3 in last minute seems to be a trend 😀). Watch out NDSU.
Richmond led Sac State for much of the game.
And Samford edged SELA in OT.

So Furman, Richmond and SELA acquitted themselves well as non-seeded teams.

anyway, thanks!!! I’ll assume 10 auto and 14 at large unless we hear otherwise