The CAA Today: Weeks Nine & Ten – For Many the Playoffs Begin Now! <---CSN

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The CAA Today: Weeks Nine & Ten – For Many the Playoffs Begin Now!
Bruce Dowd, CSN columnist

I am going to prove how a minimum of four teams from the CAA will definitely get into the playoffs this year and how five teams is a very real possibility. While only twice in the history of the playoffs have four teams from one conference been selected and as mentioned, five has never been done before, we have to realize that this is an odd year in many ways.

READ MORE... http://www.collegesportingnews.com/article.asp?articleid=88683

Here's panel one of the cartoon with the article...

[appfan2008]

very interesting article... I believe elon will still be the team and not wofford as he suggests

[CharlestonAppFan]

xreadx xscanx My brain just exploded...xnutsx xnutsx xdizzyx

good article though

[UNHFan99]

Good article. It will definitelly be interesting come playoff time.

[Saluki_man]

Great article, but one correction needs to be made. Western Illinois plays SIU at home this week, not Illinois State

[WrenFGun]

He makes the argument I've been making all week. It's LIKELY 5 get in.

[Cranium716]

Hands down, the best article of the year! Completely validates five of our guys getting in. xthumbsupx

[AZGrizFan]

He makes the argument I've been making all week. It's LIKELY 5 get in.


Hands down, the best article of the year! Completely validates five of our guys getting in. xthumbsupx

THat article doesn't "validate" *****. All it does is point out and summarize the discussion we've been having here for 7-10 days. There's the possibility that there will be a LOT of 8-3 teams for the committee to choose from. Period. One example (and one example ONLY): Richmond goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Towson and a loss to an FBS and a loss to CAA South champ Delaware, while EWU goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Portland State (albiet arguably a slightly better team than Towson this year), a 1 point loss to BSC champ Montana, and a loss to an FBS.

Tough choice? I think so....but I wouldn't expect anyone east of the Mississippi to feel the way I do. xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

Richmond is my bet for a team from the CAA that gets "woofed" at 8-3. And of course, this is all predicated on EWU winning out,which will be no easy task....

[JMUSaxMRD]

I think the playoff people will still rob someone.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

And of course, this is all predicated on EWU winning out,which will be no easy task.......for a Big Sky team other than Montana. :p

Cupcakes for a CAA team, though. :D

[AZGrizFan]

...for a Big Sky team other than Montana. :p

Cupcakes for a CAA team, though. :D


Yep. Ask ASU how much of a cupcake NAU was for them at the Rock. xrolleyesx

xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

[UMass922]

One example (and one example ONLY): Richmond goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Towson and a loss to an FBS and a loss to CAA South champ Delaware, while EWU goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Portland State (albiet arguably a slightly better team than Towson this year), a 1 point loss to BSC champ Montana, and a loss to an FBS.

Tough choice? I think so....but I wouldn't expect anyone east of the Mississippi to feel the way I do. xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

I wouldn't expect anyone to feel the way you do who compares the two schedules and sees that EWU has played a D-II (or whatever Montana-Western is) and Richmond hasn't. Everything else being equal, 8 D-I W > 7 D-I W. Seems a pretty cut-and-dry choice to me if that's what it comes down to.

EDIT: Clarification--Montana-Western is NAIA, not D-II. Needless to say, my point stands.

[appfan2008]

Yep. Ask ASU how much of a cupcake NAU was for them at the Rock. xrolleyesx

xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

ask asu how beat up michigan can make you... xnodx

[bostonspider]

Richmond goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Towson and a loss to an FBS and a loss to CAA South champ Delaware, while EWU goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Portland State (albiet arguably a slightly better team than Towson this year), a 1 point loss to BSC champ Montana, and a loss to an FBS.

Tough choice? I think so....but I wouldn't expect anyone east of the Mississippi to feel the way I do. xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

Richmond is my bet for a team from the CAA that gets "woofed" at 8-3. And of course, this is all predicated on EWU winning out,which will be no easy task....

ok, this will then be a Richmond team which will have beaten no. 8 UNH and no. 12 JMU, as well as current no. 25 Villanova. Who exactly will EWU have beaten? And PCU is 2-6, Towson is 3-5, so not sure how you determine that PSU is "slightly better". I am not sure how you can not see why UR would be considered to have a better resume by most every objective observer. You have only focused on whom the teams will have lost to, not whom they will have beaten, which is just as, if not more, important.

[Syntax Error]

All it does is point out and summarize the discussion we've been having here for 7-10 days.

Richmond goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Towson and a loss to an FBS and a loss to CAA South champ Delaware

EWU goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Portland State (albiet arguably a slightly better team than Towson this year), a 1 point loss to BSC champ Montana, and a loss to an FBS.

Tough choice? I think so...Not really, based on your scenario using GPI rankings:
#9 Richmond (has to win one of their last three to get 7 D-I wins):
FBS at Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt 41-17
#66 at Northeastern, Richmond 49-14
#100 at Bucknell, Richmond 45-14
#8 New Hampshire, Richmond 45-38
#40 at Towson, Towson 23-21
#55 Stony Brook, Richmond 42-0
#60 Rhode Island, Richmond 38-6
#13 at James Madison, Richmond 17-16
#17 Villanova
#5 at Delaware
#27 William & Mary
Avg. #39 opponent

#32 Eastern Washington (has to win their last three to get 7 D-I wins):
NAIA Montana-Western, Eastern Wash 52-13
#57 UC Davis, Eastern Wash 41-31
#81 at Idaho State, Eastern Wash 34-7
#72 Portland State Portland State 28-21
#11 at Montana, Montana 24-23
#52 Montana State, Eastern Wash 35-13
FBS at BYU, B-Y-U 42-7
#83 at Sacramento St, Eastern Wash 38-30
#101 Northern Colorado
#44 at Northern Ariz
#65 Weber State
Avg. #63 opponent

[BDKJMU]

Already posted similar to this under the message string "CAA Contenders". It has been pointed out by several that there is talk about the slim possibility of the SoCon getting 4 bids (out of 8 teams) which would be no different than the CAA getting 6 out of 12. More like its 3 out of 8 for the So Con, about 38% of the teams.

The Gateway I believe has had 4 out of 8 teams before. Now they have only 7 teams in the conference. Up until a couple of weeks ago it was assumed the Gateway would get 3 out of 7. Thats about 43%. If the CAA got 5 out of 12, thats about 42%. If the Gateway was in contention for 3 teams in everyone says thats reasonable, but with the notion of the CAA getting 5, a lot of people are saying that would never happen. That MAKES NO SENSE, since the Gateway getting 3 or the CAA getting 5 is NO DIFFERENT percentage wise.

The Gateway or the So-Con getting 50% of their teams is ok, but the CAA getting 42%, no we can't have that!"

Maybe the CAA after they get ODU should add 1 more team to make 14, then split into 2 conferences, could call themselves the CAA North Conference and CAA South Conference. No one would have a problem with one or both getting conferences 3 teams, that way they could have 5-6 total and we would never again have this debate.

Bottom line, part of the playoff selection committee's criteria is the clause -
there is no limit to the number of teams selected from one conference.

So, after the automatic qualifiers are filled, the best 8 at large teams will be selected using the other criteria. The issue of having too many teams from one conference does not exist as far as the committee is concerned.xcoffeex

[Syntax Error]

... Maybe the CAA after they get ODU should add 1 more team to make 14, then split into 2 conferences...This should have been done when they left the A10, the way teams in the same conference do and don't play each other each year is wacky. xtwocentsx

[AZGrizFan]

I give up. You win. EWU sucks. The BSC sucks. We are no better than the MEAC or PL or PFL. We should ONLY be a one team league, and in fact the NCAA should consider taking away the autobid from this aweful conference. I have yet to figure out....oh, ***** it. Never mind.

xreadx

I shan't say another word about potential playoff entrants, but I leave you with this:

When (or IF) EWU goes 8-3 and IS in the playoffs over the 5th place CAA or 4th place SoCon team, don't say I didn't call it here first. And I'll bet $10 from all takers that that scenario will play out IF EWU wins out.

[Syntax Error]

I give up. You win. EWU sucks. The BSC sucks. We are no better than the MEAC or PL or PFL. We should ONLY be a one team league, and in fact the NCAA should consider taking away the autobid from this aweful conference. I have yet to figure out....oh, ***** it. Never mind.

xreadx

I shan't say another word about potential playoff entrants, but I leave you with this:

When (or IF) EWU goes 8-3 and IS in the playoffs over the 5th place CAA or 4th place SoCon team, don't say I didn't call it here first. And I'll bet $10 from all takers that that scenario will play out IF EWU wins out.Naw, ain't nothing like that, from me at least. I just ran the numbers. Numbers like that don't win games and teams have to play in their conference games. That's what kinda stinks about the CAA, different teams play different conference games. So you end up with six 8-3 teams. Crazy. 12 is too big for playoff reasons, all conference teams should play each other.

[Blazerbird]

Thanks for fighting the good fight Az, but you don't need to defend Eastern or the league. I think if the Eagles finish 8-3, they deserve a crack at the playoffs. If they're not selected, they have only themselves to blame. This season's already a big sigh of relief for most Eagle fans and we're optimistic about the future.

[URMite]

THat article doesn't "validate" *****. All it does is point out and summarize the discussion we've been having here for 7-10 days. There's the possibility that there will be a LOT of 8-3 teams for the committee to choose from. Period. One example (and one example ONLY): Richmond goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Towson and a loss to an FBS and a loss to CAA South champ Delaware, while EWU goes 8-3 with a bad loss to Portland State (albiet arguably a slightly better team than Towson this year), a 1 point loss to BSC champ Montana, and a loss to an FBS.

Tough choice? I think so....but I wouldn't expect anyone east of the Mississippi to feel the way I do. xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

Richmond is my bet for a team from the CAA that gets "woofed" at 8-3. And of course, this is all predicated on EWU winning out,which will be no easy task....

Wait, last we heard from you I had the impression that Richmond was guaranteed to be 7-4 and EWU guaranteed to be 8-3. :p OK, in truth I'm just glad that the hyperbole doesn't seem to be escalating in this thread ...yet.

Personally, I think if there are multiple 8-3 CAA teams it will be (UNH, JMU, UR) and maybe our 2-0 head to head will help. But there is also a decent chance that UNH wins out, and either UR or JMU wins in Newark. Which gives 4 9-2 and 1 8-3, that might increase the chance of the 5th being left out.

[URMite]

I wouldn't expect anyone to feel the way you do who compares the two schedules and sees that EWU has played a D-II (or whatever Montana-Western is) and Richmond hasn't. Everything else being equal, 8 D-I W > 7 D-I W. Seems a pretty cut-and-dry choice to me if that's what it comes down to.

EDIT: Clarification--Montana-Western is NAIA, not D-II. Needless to say, my point stands.

NAIA? How often does a CAA team play an NAIA? I ask because last year's tiebreaker rules don't mention NAIA.

And thanks for pointing that out, it makes me feel like our 5th will have a little more ammunition towards making their case.

[URMite]

Thanks for fighting the good fight Az, but you don't need to defend Eastern or the league. I think if the Eagles finish 8-3, they deserve a crack at the playoffs. If they're not selected, they have only themselves to blame. This season's already a big sigh of relief for most Eagle fans and we're optimistic about the future.

For me anyway, it is not that at 8-3 you won't be good enough, I think that you guys have a scary offensive team, but that NAIA win may come back to haunt you. You may be compared another 8-3 team for that last spot and the difference being you would be 1-1 against other 8+ win teams and have the NAIA win, and your competition could be 2-1 against other 8+ win teams with a partial scholly win or 1-2 against 8+ win teams but all wins against full-scholly FCS.

If ever there was a year that 20 teams deserve a bid this is it. I think we may see more and more years where that is the case but I can't find a good way to have a 5 week playoff. Ah, but that is another thread...

[OhioHen]

I think the playoff people will still rob someone.

The fans of at least one team will feel like their favorites were robbed/jobbed/woofed. xwhistlex

Bottom line is this - only 8 at-large bids are available and some teams have to be left out. xnodx Usually it comes down to a "last two in, last two out" argument about who is more deserving.

In FCS, the arguments are about who should be 16 vs. who should be 17. MUCH better than in FBS where they argue over who should be 2 vs. who should be 3.

[Cranium716]

The fans of at least one team will feel like their favorites were robbed/jobbed/woofed. xwhistlex

Bottom line is this - only 8 at-large bids are available and some teams have to be left out. xnodx Usually it comes down to a "last two in, last two out" argument about who is more deserving.

In FCS, the arguments are about who should be 16 vs. who should be 17. MUCH better than in FBS where they argue over who should be 2 vs. who should be 3.

I couldn't agree more. If a team's on the brink of making/not making the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves. For example, if JMU loses tomorrow to Delaware and ends up not making the playoffs, Dukes fans should be looking back at the pathetic offensive performance vs. Richmond instead of complaining about being "robbed."

[Lehigh Football Nation]

My question to all of you is this: Is a team that could finish no higher than fifth in their own conference better than a team that finished second?

Isn't the problem really that the CAA's current structure has robbed their members a chance to see who really is best?

Delaware doesn't face UMass, Hofstra
JMU doesn't face UMass, Hofstra
Richmond doesn't face UMass, Hofstra
Hofstra doesn't face Delaware, JMU, Richmond
UMass doesn't face Delaware, JMU, Richmond

New Hampshire has faced the entire gauntlet, and FBS Marshall. If they go 8-3, they certainly deserve an at-large bid. But Delaware hasn't beaten a single team that is currently in the Top 25. Neither has Hofstra.

Does an 8-3 5th or 6th place team, who would have beaten at most one Top 25 opponent, really deserve a playoff bid?

[BlueHen86]

Does an 8-3 5th or 6th place team, who would have beaten at most one Top 25 opponent, really deserve a playoff bid?

I guess that would depend on who they are being compared to. They might get over a 2nd place 8-3 team with no wins against a top 25 opponent.

As I have said many times, I don't think the CAA will get five teams in, but not because the fifth team isn't deserving, but because the committee will try to avoid 5 teams from one conference.

And yes, the committee may take into account the fact that not all CAA teams play each other, so that may cost Delaware if they finish 8-3. There is still a lot of football to be played, we'll find out in a few weeks.

[ChickenMan]

Does an 8-3 5th or 6th place team, who would have beaten at most one Top 25 opponent, really deserve a playoff bid?


Maybe.. considering that alternative contenders like EWU, Norfolk St, E.Ill, JSU, Holy Cross or Fordham may not have beaten any Top 25 teams.

[HensRock]

Does an 8-3 5th or 6th place team, who would have beaten at most one Top 25 opponent, really deserve a playoff bid?

Over a 2nd place team from another conference that has FACED at most one Top 25 opponent?

I'm thinking yes.

[UMass922]

My question to all of you is this: Is a team that could finish no higher than fifth in their own conference better than a team that finished second?

Isn't the problem really that the CAA's current structure has robbed their members a chance to see who really is best?

Delaware doesn't face UMass, Hofstra
JMU doesn't face UMass, Hofstra
Richmond doesn't face UMass, Hofstra
Hofstra doesn't face Delaware, JMU, Richmond
UMass doesn't face Delaware, JMU, Richmond

New Hampshire has faced the entire gauntlet, and FBS Marshall. If they go 8-3, they certainly deserve an at-large bid. But Delaware hasn't beaten a single team that is currently in the Top 25. Neither has Hofstra.

Does an 8-3 5th or 6th place team, who would have beaten at most one Top 25 opponent, really deserve a playoff bid?

If the 8-3 5th or 6th place team has one of the eight best at-large resumes in the nation, then yes. It's all relative to what other teams around the country do.

An 8-3 Hofstra will probably not get in. You'll get no argument from me there.

An 8-3 Delaware would have only have seven D-I wins, and would have lost to both JMU and Richmond at home. No argument from me if that team misses the playoffs, either.

As for your question about the CAA structure robbing us of the chance to see who's best, you're absolutely correct. Personally I don't take much stock in UMass's "undefeated" CAA record and conference "title" last year because we didn't play JMU, Delaware, or Richmond.

But you're confusing two different issues if you think that the absence of a clear CAA champion has anything to do with comparing the resumes of two teams from different conferences to determine who gets an at-large. All I've said is that, comparing the resumes of a hypothetical 8-3 EWU team and a hypothetical 8-3 Richmond team, the Richmond team would seem to have the stronger case for an at-large bid. I don't see why where each team finishes in its conference ought to enter into that.

Will it get my rocks off if five CAA teams make the playoffs? Not really. Everything else being equal, I'd much rather see conference diversity in the playoffs than one or two leagues sharing most of the load. Purely from my perspective as an FCS fan, I'd rather see EWU in the playoffs than Richmond (no offense intended, Richmond and CAA fans), if only because I already know all the CAA teams and follow them on a yearly basis--one of the most fun things about the playoffs is seeing teams and matchups I don't ordinarily get to see.

That's why I would have no problem if the NCAA were to legislate a cap limiting the number of playoff teams from a single conference at, say, four. If the committee doesn't think that a fifth-place team deserves to be in the playoffs, then it should make that a written rule rather than an unwritten one (if that indeed it is). But as the rules are now, it's supposed to be the eight best teams regardless of conference that get the at-large bids. Which means that if a fifth-place team has a better resume than a second-place team, the fifth-place team should get the bid.

But--to finish with a prediction--I don't think the CAA is going to get five bids anyway.

[UMass922]

I give up. You win. EWU sucks. The BSC sucks. We are no better than the MEAC or PL or PFL. We should ONLY be a one team league, and in fact the NCAA should consider taking away the autobid from this aweful conference. I have yet to figure out....oh, ***** it. Never mind.

xreadx



For the record--and just speaking for myself here (though I haven't seen anyone else in this thread suggest that EWU or the BSC "sucks," either)--I feel nothing nothing of the sort. Just comparing the resumes of a hypothetical 8-3 EWU and a hypothetical 8-3 Richmond.