Bracketology 2007, Week 2

[TheValleyRaider]

Unlike all these game prediction/game of the week/poll results threads, I can still count how many weeks I've been doing this :D

Once again, the 16 teams you will see selected, seeded and slotted are being done so based on their collective body of work at this point in the season. Is this a mildly pointless exercise? Perhaps, but no more so than picking a playoff field based on games that haven't even happened yet.

Our 8 autobids, as determined by conference tiebreakers, overall record, then maybe something more if they stubbornly remain tied.
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Massachusetts
Gateway: Northern Iowa
MEAC: Delaware State
OVC: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon
Southland: McNeese State

All autobids pretty straightforward this week. Only one tie, SoCon with Elon and Wofford, resolved by Elon's head to head win.

Now for the at-larges. At-large bids selected using the GPI for 8, then a +1 to replace one of them that will surely not be selected. Teams ineligible for the postseason, by 7-win rule or reclassification and teams that will not participate do not count in this top 8.
1-Delaware
2-Southern Illinois
3-Appalachian State
4-New Hampshire
5-Richmond
6-Wofford
7-James Madison
8-Georgia Southern
+1-Eastern Washington
I chose EWU this week as the "+1" due to their 2nd place standing in the Big Sky, taking them over Hofstra (a 6th CAA team) and Western Illinois (Gateway #3). In my mind, EWU's win over Montana State is the best win either EWU or WIU has, and the +1 team is usually pulled from a bit deeper than right below the predicted at-larges. I wouldn't rule out Holy Cross sneaking into the field at this point as the committee also likes to take an extra team from the lower auto-bid conferences if they can. As tempting as it is to simply swap Georgia Southern out, I'm going to continue making lots of enemies this year by putting in EWU instead of James Madison. 5 CAA teams would be precedent-breaking, and as good as the conference has been this year, I'd still be very shocked if it happens. The Dukes are the unluckily Woofed this week.

Pretty straightforward, 16 teams look like this:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Seeding and bracketing coming shortly...

[Go...gate]

Sounds good - nice work.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Unlike all these game prediction/game of the week/poll results threads, I can still count how many weeks I've been doing this :D

Seeding and bracketing coming shortly...

Well hurry...this is fun!xthumbsupx

[89Hen]

Do we have to wait for you to post your pairings from what you've provided? xeyebrowx :p

[mcveyrl]

Good analysis!!

I agree that right now JMU would be the 5th CAA team left out and think they will be if there are five 8-3 CAA teams.

[89Hen]

Using what you gave us...

Wofford at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Southern Illinois at #4 Montana
Elon at Eastern Kentucky


Fordham at #2 Massachusetts
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Washington at #3 McNeese State
Richmond at Georgia Southern

[deputygrizbro]

Using what you gave us...

Wofford at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Southern Illinois at #4 Montana
Elon at Eastern Kentucky


Fordham at #2 Massachusetts
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Washington at #3 McNeese State
Richmond at Georgia Southern

Delaware/Delaware St. matchup!?!?!? No way! According to every legend in history, the two schools won't play each other because Delaware is "racist." I just don't see this happening! xthumbsupx

Okay, now in all seriousness, I think that would be an AWESOME matchup... but not first round. I'd like to see a possible second round matchup between those two. It's hard to put two teams against each other where a game that could/should be a solid win for the favorite would be overshadowed by one of the biggest small-college "rivalries" since that article came out this year by ESPN. I dunno... it's like matching the Colts and patriots in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Just wouldn't be right, you know? Maybe Im wrong.

[Go...gate]

Delaware/Delaware St. matchup!?!?!? No way! According to every legend in history, the two schools won't play each other because Delaware is "racist." I just don't see this happening! xthumbsupx

Okay, now in all seriousness, I think that would be an AWESOME matchup... but not first round. I'd like to see a possible second round matchup between those two. It's hard to put two teams against each other where a game that could/should be a solid win for the favorite would be overshadowed by one of the biggest small-college "rivalries" since that article came out this year by ESPN. I dunno... it's like matching the Colts and patriots in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Just wouldn't be right, you know? Maybe Im wrong.

UD beats Navy and they don't get a Top 4 seed? Hard to believe that.

[TheValleyRaider]

I've got my 16 teams for this week:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Seeding
Top 4 teams are seeded. Records and rankings are used to pick the seeds and slot them properly.
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
Seeds were pretty easy this week, keeping everything the same as before. This will really only get interesting if one of them loses. While UMass' is the only team there with a loss, that one loss to BC looks better and better as the Eagles remain on track for a BCS Title Game appearance. For now, that and their higher ranking keeps them above the Griz.

Home Games
Home Games are awarded based on bids. Because I of course have no knowledge of bid sizes, I award home games based on average attendance with some educated guessing (some schools have a history of under-bidding). Home teams are then matched with a seed for 2nd round matchups, based on geography and seeding.
Home games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Richmond
ASU and UD are pretty straightforward to me, and while GSU doesn't have a recent history of bidding, I have to think they'll be showing the money if a playoff birth is in the offing. Richmond does have a history of splashing the cash for a first round game, and I'll take the Spiders for the last one here.

Matching these with seeds gives us:
Appalachian State with Massachusetts
Delaware with Montana
Georgia Southern with McNeese State
Richmond with Northern Iowa
This was pretty tough, with all 4 home games being in the Southeast (yes, Delaware is relatively Southeast). I didn't want to put two CAA teams together for the second round with UMass and UD, so they got split. Otherwise, I went with seeding, generally.

First Round
Finally the first round games. Games are paired with Geography first, but once you're on a plane, you can go anywhere. Rankings are considered and avoiding conference matchups in the first round is paramount.
First Round games are:
Delaware State at Delaware
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Eastern Washington at Northern Iowa
Elon at Richmond
Fordham at Massachusetts
New Hampshire at Montana
Southern Illinois at Georgia Southern
Wofford at McNeese State
Truth be told, this was really hard, and could work out in all sorts of interesting fashions. For me, EKU-ASU, Fordham-UMass, and the matchup everyone's been waiting for: UD-DSU, were no-brainers. Otherwise, options abound. Elon or Wofford could be sent to Richmond, but I chose Elon because it was slightly closer and as a reward for winning the autobid. Wofford, SIU, EWU and UNH were at this point pretty much at the mercy of travel schedules. UNI, as the #1, gets EWU, the last team in. None of the others are really fair to any team, but I gave McNeese the lower-rated team (Wofford), the next highest (UNH) to Montana, and then the top-rated side (SIU) visiting the unseeded GSU.

So the brackets look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington

Richmond
Elon

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Delaware
Delaware State

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. By all means, contribute another +1, a different set of seeds or home teams, or juggle the first round matchups some. For your comments/criticism/approval/condemnation/etc. xpeacex

[blur2005]

Hopefully, JMU will step it up and beat Delaware on the road this week so that there's a lot less uncertainty about the Dukes getting a bid.

[deputygrizbro]

I've got my 16 teams for this week:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Seeding
Top 4 teams are seeded. Records and rankings are used to pick the seeds and slot them properly.
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
Seeds were pretty easy this week, keeping everything the same as before. This will really only get interesting if one of them loses. While UMass' is the only team there with a loss, that one loss to BC looks better and better as the Eagles remain on track for a BCS Title Game appearance. For now, that and their higher ranking keeps them above the Griz.

Home Games
Home Games are awarded based on bids. Because I of course have no knowledge of bid sizes, I award home games based on average attendance with some educated guessing (some schools have a history of under-bidding). Home teams are then matched with a seed for 2nd round matchups, based on geography and seeding.
Home games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Richmond
ASU and UD are pretty straightforward to me, and while GSU doesn't have a recent history of bidding, I have to think they'll be showing the money if a playoff birth is in the offing. Richmond does have a history of splashing the cash for a first round game, and I'll take the Spiders for the last one here.

Matching these with seeds gives us:
Appalachian State with Massachusetts
Delaware with Montana
Georgia Southern with McNeese State
Richmond with Northern Iowa
This was pretty tough, with all 4 home games being in the Southeast (yes, Delaware is relatively Southeast). I didn't want to put two CAA teams together for the second round with UMass and UD, so they got split. Otherwise, I went with seeding, generally.

First Round
Finally the first round games. Games are paired with Geography first, but once you're on a plane, you can go anywhere. Rankings are considered and avoiding conference matchups in the first round is paramount.
First Round games are:
Delaware State at Delaware
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Eastern Washington at Northern Iowa
Elon at Richmond
Fordham at Massachusetts
New Hampshire at Montana
Southern Illinois at Georgia Southern
Wofford at McNeese State
Truth be told, this was really hard, and could work out in all sorts of interesting fashions. For me, EKU-ASU, Fordham-UMass, and the matchup everyone's been waiting for: UD-DSU, were no-brainers. Otherwise, options abound. Elon or Wofford could be sent to Richmond, but I chose Elon because it was slightly closer and as a reward for winning the autobid. Wofford, SIU, EWU and UNH were at this point pretty much at the mercy of travel schedules. UNI, as the #1, gets EWU, the last team in. None of the others are really fair to any team, but I gave McNeese the lower-rated team (Wofford), the next highest (UNH) to Montana, and then the top-rated side (SIU) visiting the unseeded GSU.

So the brackets look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington

Richmond
Elon

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Delaware
Delaware State

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. By all means, contribute another +1, a different set of seeds or home teams, or juggle the first round matchups some. For your comments/criticism/approval/condemnation/etc. xpeacex

You honestly think that if the Griz are ranked 4th ahead of Delaware that still wont get the home game based on bidding? Sorry man, but the Griz need that home game like meth-head needs, well, meth. It is well-known that the Griz do not fair well on the road in the playoffs and I guarantee that they will put up enough money to secure a home game if they have to. Not bidding for one would severly decrease their chances of a win... based on past playoff experience.

[Houndawg]

I've got my 16 teams for this week:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Seeding
Top 4 teams are seeded. Records and rankings are used to pick the seeds and slot them properly.
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
Seeds were pretty easy this week, keeping everything the same as before. This will really only get interesting if one of them loses. While UMass' is the only team there with a loss, that one loss to BC looks better and better as the Eagles remain on track for a BCS Title Game appearance. For now, that and their higher ranking keeps them above the Griz.

Home Games
Home Games are awarded based on bids. Because I of course have no knowledge of bid sizes, I award home games based on average attendance with some educated guessing (some schools have a history of under-bidding). Home teams are then matched with a seed for 2nd round matchups, based on geography and seeding.
Home games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Richmond
ASU and UD are pretty straightforward to me, and while GSU doesn't have a recent history of bidding, I have to think they'll be showing the money if a playoff birth is in the offing. Richmond does have a history of splashing the cash for a first round game, and I'll take the Spiders for the last one here.

Matching these with seeds gives us:
Appalachian State with Massachusetts
Delaware with Montana
Georgia Southern with McNeese State
Richmond with Northern Iowa
This was pretty tough, with all 4 home games being in the Southeast (yes, Delaware is relatively Southeast). I didn't want to put two CAA teams together for the second round with UMass and UD, so they got split. Otherwise, I went with seeding, generally.

First Round
Finally the first round games. Games are paired with Geography first, but once you're on a plane, you can go anywhere. Rankings are considered and avoiding conference matchups in the first round is paramount.
First Round games are:
Delaware State at Delaware
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Eastern Washington at Northern Iowa
Elon at Richmond
Fordham at Massachusetts
New Hampshire at Montana
Southern Illinois at Georgia Southern
Wofford at McNeese State
Truth be told, this was really hard, and could work out in all sorts of interesting fashions. For me, EKU-ASU, Fordham-UMass, and the matchup everyone's been waiting for: UD-DSU, were no-brainers. Otherwise, options abound. Elon or Wofford could be sent to Richmond, but I chose Elon because it was slightly closer and as a reward for winning the autobid. Wofford, SIU, EWU and UNH were at this point pretty much at the mercy of travel schedules. UNI, as the #1, gets EWU, the last team in. None of the others are really fair to any team, but I gave McNeese the lower-rated team (Wofford), the next highest (UNH) to Montana, and then the top-rated side (SIU) visiting the unseeded GSU.

So the brackets look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington

Richmond
Elon

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Delaware
Delaware State

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. By all means, contribute another +1, a different set of seeds or home teams, or juggle the first round matchups some. For your comments/criticism/approval/condemnation/etc. xpeacex

From the travel standpoint I'd think you'd be more likely to see UNH at GSU and SIU at UM. I also think that SIU is going to bid hard for a home game this year because I think that the coaching staff thinks that this is the year. We're noticeably more athletic this year.

[TheValleyRaider]

You honestly think that if the Griz are ranked 4th ahead of Delaware that still wont get the home game based on bidding? Sorry man, but the Griz need that home game like meth-head needs, well, meth. It is well-known that the Griz do not fair well on the road in the playoffs and I guarantee that they will put up enough money to secure a home game if they have to. Not bidding for one would severly decrease their chances of a win... based on past playoff experience.

Where did I say Montana would be sent to Delaware? xeyebrowx

The Griz are seeded, they'll be home until they face a higher seed (#1 UNI in this case) or they get to Chattanooga.

[deputygrizbro]

"Home Games
Home Games are awarded based on bids. Because I of course have no knowledge of bid sizes, I award home games based on average attendance with some educated guessing (some schools have a history of under-bidding). Home teams are then matched with a seed for 2nd round matchups, based on geography and seeding.
Home games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Richmond
ASU and UD are pretty straightforward to me, and while GSU doesn't have a recent history of bidding, I have to think they'll be showing the money if a playoff birth is in the offing. Richmond does have a history of splashing the cash for a first round game, and I'll take the Spiders for the last one here."

Is this not what you meant?

[griz37]

"Home Games
Home Games are awarded based on bids. Because I of course have no knowledge of bid sizes, I award home games based on average attendance with some educated guessing (some schools have a history of under-bidding). Home teams are then matched with a seed for 2nd round matchups, based on geography and seeding.
Home games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Richmond
ASU and UD are pretty straightforward to me, and while GSU doesn't have a recent history of bidding, I have to think they'll be showing the money if a playoff birth is in the offing. Richmond does have a history of splashing the cash for a first round game, and I'll take the Spiders for the last one here."

Is this not what you meant?

Those 4 games are for 1st round matchups not involving a seed.

[crunifan]

Not that I dislike Eastern Washington or anything, but that was who UNI played in the first round two years ago. I'd like to see another team in the Dome, preferrably one who has never experience its...hospitality.

I'd really like an OVC team. They have a great record in the playoffs.xnodx

[BlueHen86]

Great job 'Raider. This is good stuff.

[griz37]

Not that I dislike Eastern Washington or anything, but that was who UNI played in the first round two years ago. I'd like to see another team in the Dome, preferrably one who has never experience its...hospitality.

I'd really like an OVC team. They have a great record in the playoffs.xnodx

Since '01 Montana has played Northwestern St. 3 times in the 1st round at Washington Grizzly stadium. I agree with you about wanting to see new teams in the playoffs.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

So the brackets look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington


I would love to see this first round rematch from two years ago where we lost by a FG in the final seconds... revenge! xthumbsupx

[Mountaineer#96]

I like the idea of a renewed rivalry game of EKU at App State........sounds good!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Not that I dislike Eastern Washington or anything, but that was who UNI played in the first round two years ago. I'd like to see another team in the Dome, preferrably one who has never experience its...hospitality.

I'd really like an OVC team. They have a great record in the playoffs.xnodx

Oh we know that UNI doesn't hate us, we just make 'em real nervous! xlolx

[crunifan]

Nothing makes me more nervous than a 5-3 Eastern Washington team that lost to Portland State, squeaked by Sacramento State, and can still not make the playoffs with a loss to Northern Arizona.

[Maroons]

I like the idea of a renewed rivalry game of EKU at App State........sounds good!

You and me both! I've regretted the fact that I never made the trip to Boone for an EKU/ASU game... this would give me that opportunity! If the Colonels can't host, I can hardly think of any place I'd rather go this season.

[Maroons]

Using what you gave us...

Wofford at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Southern Illinois at #4 Montana
Elon at Eastern Kentucky


Fordham at #2 Massachusetts
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Washington at #3 McNeese State
Richmond at Georgia Southern

Interesting... why do you send Elon to EKU? I don't really understand the bidding process at all... does EKU have some kind of advantage in that respect?

[AZGrizFan]

Nothing makes me more nervous than a 5-3 Eastern Washington team that lost to Portland State, squeaked by Sacramento State, and can still not make the playoffs with a loss to Northern Arizona.


So, apparently, EWU has got you right where they want you. Fat, dumb, and overconfident. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[GreatAppSt]

Using what you gave us...

Wofford at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Southern Illinois at #4 Montana
Elon at Eastern Kentucky


Fordham at #2 Massachusetts
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Washington at #3 McNeese State
Richmond at Georgia Southern

Cake walk city.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

So, apparently, EWU has got you right where they want you. Fat, dumb, and overconfident. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xthumbsupx

[GolfingGriz]

So, apparently, EWU has got you right where they want you. Fat, dumb, and overconfident. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

Just like a couple other #1 seeds that have had to play a BSC team in the first roundxnodx

[GSUhooligan]

Cake walk city.

I'd argue WC/ UNI wouldn't be a cake walk considering UNI's record vs. option teams in the playoffs (:D ).

UNH/ ASU would be hard to call a cake walk since App had trouble against Elon until the last minute. Santos is better than Riddle (at least for now).

Montana has had an easy road while SIU has not. Although WaGriz is one of, if not the toughest places to play in FCS, I still wouldn't call it a cake walk.

EKU hasn't faced anyone tough this year outside Kentucky and maybe EIU. They're going up against the (possible) socon champs who are a part of the toughest (arguably behind the CAA) conference in FCS. Not a cake walk.

Forham/UMASS agreed...cake walk

Delaware/ Del St. may be a cake walk.

EWU/McNeese may or may not be a cake walk

Richmond/GSU Both teams have been up and down this season. Not a cake walk.

[roysboi12]

Cake walk city.
Cake walk meaning NH throws that ball. ASU can stop pass, however stopping the run is a far different story as evidenced by Wofford and Ga. Southern

[roysboi12]

Elon game was only close due to a kickoff return for TD and a kickoff return to the 20. On each play two ASU defenders tripped over each other, paving the way for big returns.

[GSUhooligan]

Thats football. We would have had an interception against Elon if Covington and Wiggins didn't run into eachother, which probably would have changed the game, but...

Guys making plays is what its all about and your guys didn't make the plays on those returns, Elon's guy did.

[URMite]

This may sound strange but I'd rather see Wofford, GSU or even McNeese than EWU or Elon (even though we get them next year). We seem to be much better at defending the outside run than the mid range pass...

If we get in, we may do a good job on bidding. We aren't great on attendance but our stadium does hold 22k so we are allowed to bid that much.

[gophoenix]

Elon game was only close due to a kickoff return for TD and a kickoff return to the 20. On each play two ASU defenders tripped over each other, paving the way for big returns.

blah blah blah

Yeah, and had Elon not thrown an interception for TD or the defense not screwed up on those two reverse plays for App ran for TDs, we would have won.

Both teams had big plays that resulted in TDs. Yours from trickery and good defense (Lynch). Ours from blocking and the best SoCon kickoff returner (Mayers).

So, in essence, if you take out these big idiotic plays by both teams that should have been covered and "not happened" then the score is 35-25. Which is closer than the 49-32 that it was.

I hate idiotic "it was only close because" crap.... it is nothing but excuses.

[Kosty]

UD beats Navy and they don't get a Top 4 seed? Hard to believe that.

Would they have a loss against the FCS? Do the other teams that get seeds in this scenario have a loss against the FCS? There you go.

[89Hen]

Interesting... why do you send Elon to EKU? I don't really understand the bidding process at all... does EKU have some kind of advantage in that respect?
9,325 fans per game. Plus the at least one of the SoCon's has to be on the road. There's no way the committee gives all the teams from one conference home games.

[89Hen]

Okay, now in all seriousness, I think that would be an AWESOME matchup... but not first round. I'd like to see a possible second round matchup between those two. It's hard to put two teams against each other where a game that could/should be a solid win for the favorite would be overshadowed by one of the biggest small-college "rivalries" since that article came out this year by ESPN. I dunno... it's like matching the Colts and patriots in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Just wouldn't be right, you know? Maybe Im wrong.
No slight to DelSt but the MEAC hasn't had a team advance to the second round since 1999. There is no way they'd risk one or neither team advancing to a second game to meet. Plus, the first round games usually need the most help attendance wise. xpeacex

[McNeese75]

Cake walk city.

Ummm Hummmm, you will probably choke on that cake xlolx

[ab4app]

Cake walk is a really arrogant ignorant thing to say at any point in the season, much less in the playoffs,xoopsx I dont care who you are.All that does is fuel the other teams fire when they hear stuff like that. Dont mean to be comin down on an a fellow appster, but we gotta keep our heads right, there are no cake walks, especially not this year with so many great teams and our weaknesses exposed, although i think we are getting better. But then again so is everyone else.

[Go Apps]

Here's what I project for what it's worth...


Elon at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Georgia Southern

Western Illinois at #4 Montana
Wofford at Southern Illinois


Fordham at #2 Massachusetts
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Kentucky at #3 McNeese State
Richmond at Appalachian State

[GreatAppSt]

Boy, y'all just swung and missed like Colarado Rocky Batters.


89HenWofford at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

Southern Illinois at #4 Montana
Elon at Eastern Kentucky

Having the almost the entire Socon, and the entire Gateway, the best of the Bigsky and that UNH O, IMHO creates cake walk city in the other bracket it seemed a little homerish for Mr. 89's squad.;)

[DSUHornet]

Delaware/Delaware St. matchup!?!?!? No way! According to every legend in history, the two schools won't play each other because Delaware is "racist." I just don't see this happening! xthumbsupx

Okay, now in all seriousness, I think that would be an AWESOME matchup... but not first round. I'd like to see a possible second round matchup between those two. It's hard to put two teams against each other where a game that could/should be a solid win for the favorite would be overshadowed by one of the biggest small-college "rivalries" since that article came out this year by ESPN. I dunno... it's like matching the Colts and patriots in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Just wouldn't be right, you know? Maybe Im wrong.


its happening!!!!!!!!! xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix

[89Hen]

Having the almost the entire Socon, and the entire Gateway, the best of the Bigsky and that UNH O, IMHO creates cake walk city in the other bracket it seemed a little homerish for Mr. 89's squad.;)
xconfusedx Both times when there were four teams from one conference, three were in one bracket and one in the other. Also, it's not uncommon to have both teams from the same two bid conference in the same side either.... or you could look at it the other way... I have three CAA teams (the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place) in one side... how is that advantageous?

Just because you're afraid of UNH, don't call me homerish. xsmiley_wix :p

[mcveyrl]

xconfusedx Both times when there were four teams from one conference, three were in one bracket and one in the other. Also, it's not uncommon to have both teams from the same two bid conference in the same side either.... or you could look at it the other way... I have three CAA teams (the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place) in one side... how is that advantageous?

Just because you're afraid of UNH, don't call me homerish. xsmiley_wix :p


With regionalization it almost has to be that way.

[GreatAppSt]

xconfusedx

Just because you're afraid of UNH, don't call me homerish. xsmiley_wix :p

89 ya know I like to count things so here ya go.:D

A quick compilation of the current rankings of your 2 brackets proved interesting.

The AGS poll's compiled total of the rankings in the first bracket was 69, the cake walk was 96.xeyebrowx


The coaches poll compiled total of the rankings in the first bracket was(surprisingly the same for both) 69 the cake walk 96

I did give your lower bracket a break and gave Fordham the rank of 26 in both calculations since they are currently unranked. Even if I gave Fordham the 18th rank in AGS and the 19th rank in the coaches both just after next lowest ranked GSU. The total would still be lopsided 69/88 AGS and 69/89 coaches IMHO. ie the cakewalk bracketxazzx HA!:p

yes I am bored!

[skinny_uncle]

Here's what I project for what it's worth...


Elon at #1 Northern Iowa
New Hampshire at Georgia Southern

Western Illinois at #4 Montana
Wofford at Southern Illinois


Fordham at #2 Massachusetts
Delaware State at Delaware

Eastern Kentucky at #3 McNeese State
Richmond at Appalachian State
Not bad, but I don't think WIU is going to make it. They have to beat SIU and Youngstown just to get to the playoffs. Tough task.

[89Hen]

89 ya know I like to count things so here ya go.:D

A quick compilation of the current rankings of your 2 brackets proved interesting.

The AGS poll's compiled total of the rankings in the first bracket was 69, the cake walk was 96.xeyebrowx
You are confusing the way the Committee USED to do it, with how they do it NOW. Only the top 4 are seeded and nowhere does it say in the guidelines that they are to balance the two sides. I'm sure they'd like to, but regionalization is priority number one (after making sure conference mates don't play each other).

I like numbers too you know. Last year the brackets were a combined 76 (AppSt's bracket) and 97 from the AGS Poll. Quite similar, no? xsmiley_wix xthumbsupx

[already123]

Eastern is actually tied for 3rd place in the BSC right now, so I wouldnt put them in the playoffs just yet...

[WSBE]

...great analysis. I'm curious if this would change much if UNH beats UMASS. Probably not because UMASS still wins the CAA

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

...great analysis. I'm curious if this would change much if UNH beats UMASS. Probably not because UMASS still wins the CAA

I don't know if they would get the auto bid.

If Deleware wins out they'd each have one loss.

[WrenFGun]

And, oddly enough, both of their CAA losses would have against New Hampshire. I wonder how they would determine it. Would it potentially be SOS within CAA? Common opponents would both see 1 loss, assuming UNH won. I wouldn't know how that would work.

As an aside, it's awfully nice to be in control. If UNH wins out, they know they're in.

[89Hen]

...great analysis. I'm curious if this would change much if UNH beats UMASS. Probably not because UMASS still wins the CAA


I don't know if they would get the auto bid.

If Deleware wins out they'd each have one loss.
I actually answered this on another thread. The Hens have the tiebreaker if UMass and UD finish 7-1 CAA...


OK, found the A10 tiebreaker and I'm going to assume the CAA adopted the same one (BTW, I was incorrect on games outside of the CAA counting) ...

TIE OUTSIDE DIVISION
1. Head-to-head competition. DIDN'T PLAY

2. Combined winning percentage versus all common Atlantic 10
opponents. SAME

3. Should a tie remain, one (1) point will be awarded for a victory versus
a I-AA opponent from the following conferences: Big Sky, Big
South, Gateway, Ivy, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Ohio Valley, Patriot,
Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, and current independents;
one-half (0.5) point will be awarded for a victory versus a I-AA opponent
from the following conferences: Metro Atlantic, Northeast, and
Pioneer; and two (2) points will be awarded for a victory versus a I-A
opponent. In addition, one (1) point will be deducted for a loss to a
Division II or Division lII opponent. Points will not be awarded for a
victory versus a Division II or III institution, nor will points be deducted
for a loss to a Division I-A or I-AA institution. The team with the
most points would be declared the automatic qualifier.
(UMASS = 2 points for wins over Colgate and Holy Cross, UD = 2.5 points for wins over Navy and Monmouth)

4. If the above tie-breakers fail, a conference call with the directors of
athletics from the institutions not involved in the tie will be convened by
the Commissioner. The directors of athletics, with input from the head
coaches, would then declare the Conference's automatic qualifier.

So the Hens actually do have the tiebreaker

[bostonspider]

Or if Richmond or JMU win out they too would each have just one loss in conferene...

[Ronin]

I've got my 16 teams for this week:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Elon
Fordham
Georgia Southern
Massachusetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford

Seeding
Top 4 teams are seeded. Records and rankings are used to pick the seeds and slot them properly.
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
Seeds were pretty easy this week, keeping everything the same as before. This will really only get interesting if one of them loses. While UMass' is the only team there with a loss, that one loss to BC looks better and better as the Eagles remain on track for a BCS Title Game appearance. For now, that and their higher ranking keeps them above the Griz.

Home Games
Home Games are awarded based on bids. Because I of course have no knowledge of bid sizes, I award home games based on average attendance with some educated guessing (some schools have a history of under-bidding). Home teams are then matched with a seed for 2nd round matchups, based on geography and seeding.
Home games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Richmond
ASU and UD are pretty straightforward to me, and while GSU doesn't have a recent history of bidding, I have to think they'll be showing the money if a playoff birth is in the offing. Richmond does have a history of splashing the cash for a first round game, and I'll take the Spiders for the last one here.

Matching these with seeds gives us:
Appalachian State with Massachusetts
Delaware with Montana
Georgia Southern with McNeese State
Richmond with Northern Iowa
This was pretty tough, with all 4 home games being in the Southeast (yes, Delaware is relatively Southeast). I didn't want to put two CAA teams together for the second round with UMass and UD, so they got split. Otherwise, I went with seeding, generally.

First Round
Finally the first round games. Games are paired with Geography first, but once you're on a plane, you can go anywhere. Rankings are considered and avoiding conference matchups in the first round is paramount.
First Round games are:
Delaware State at Delaware
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Eastern Washington at Northern Iowa
Elon at Richmond
Fordham at Massachusetts
New Hampshire at Montana
Southern Illinois at Georgia Southern
Wofford at McNeese State
Truth be told, this was really hard, and could work out in all sorts of interesting fashions. For me, EKU-ASU, Fordham-UMass, and the matchup everyone's been waiting for: UD-DSU, were no-brainers. Otherwise, options abound. Elon or Wofford could be sent to Richmond, but I chose Elon because it was slightly closer and as a reward for winning the autobid. Wofford, SIU, EWU and UNH were at this point pretty much at the mercy of travel schedules. UNI, as the #1, gets EWU, the last team in. None of the others are really fair to any team, but I gave McNeese the lower-rated team (Wofford), the next highest (UNH) to Montana, and then the top-rated side (SIU) visiting the unseeded GSU.

So the brackets look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington

Richmond
Elon

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Delaware
Delaware State

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. By all means, contribute another +1, a different set of seeds or home teams, or juggle the first round matchups some. For your comments/criticism/approval/condemnation/etc. xpeacex

Nicely done.

[URMite]

Or if Richmond or JMU win out they too would each have just one loss in conferene...

You know I hadn't really looked at the AQ and was concentrating on the at-large but...

If UNH helps us with UMass and UD or JMU or UR or JMU&UR win out the tie breakers look interesting.

1 is head to head - I assume if UMass/UR/JMU are tied this still doesn't help since not all played each other.

2 JMU is 6-0 vs common opponents all the others are 5-1

3 UD has 2.5 OOC wins all the others have 2 (given the CAA pt system)

Elsewhere we saw UD wins the UMass tiebreaker, JMU wins the UMass tiebreaker by virtue of their loss coming to a team Umass didn't play, UMass and UR remain tied, JMU wins the three way tie as well.

I guess anyone winning the next 2 weeks will be rooting hard for UNH.

[AZGrizFan]

Nicely done.


You changin' your tune, junior? How can you say "nicely done" when he's got Montana as a seeded team (GASP!) and a SECOND BSC team in the mix?

xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

[appfan2008]

thanks for the hard work valley... i find your analysis the best of anybodies on here in regards to the playoff scenarios

[colorless raider]

It's that Colgate education which give Valley that skill in bracketology.I know our friends in Delaware will love that one. BTW don't forget that the Holy Cross-Fordham winner this week probably determines the Patriot representative.

[AZGrizFan]

Here's my 16 teams:

CAA:

UMass -AQ
Delaware - AL
New Hampshire - AL
JMU - AL

SoCon:

Elon - AQ
Wofford - AL
App State - AL

Gateway:

UNI - AQ
SIU - AL

BSC:

Montana - AQ
EWU - AL

Southland:

McNeese State - AQ

OVC:

Eastern KY - AQ

MEAC:

Delaware State - AQ

Patriot:

Fordham - AQ

No Big South. No PFL. No NEC. No MAAC. No GWFC.

I think GSU loses to Wofford & Colorado State, going 7-4.
I think The Citadel loses to Elon and App State, and goes 7-4.
I think WIU loses to SIU AND potentially YSU, going (at best) 7-4.
I think Cal Poly loses to NDSU and goes 7-4.
I think Central Arkansas loses to McNeese St and goes 7-4.

Nicholls State runs the table and goes 8-3.
Richmond will finish 8-3.
Montana State needs to win out to go 8-3, which would give them a win over Montana and NAU.

Given that highly unlikely possibility, and considering the fact that I'm potentially forgetting someone big, it actually IS likely that Richmond could be the 5th team from the CAA AND EWU gets in as well. The 15th/16th slots could be a three horse race between Richmond, EWU and Nicholls State....

That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it.... xpeacex xcoffeex xreadx xreadx

[URMite]

Here's my 16 teams:

CAA:

UMass -AQ
Delaware - AL
New Hampshire - AL
JMU - AL

SoCon:

Elon - AQ
Wofford - AL
App State - AL

Gateway:

UNI - AQ
SIU - AL

BSC:

Montana - AQ
EWU - AL

Southland:

McNeese State - AQ

OVC:

Eastern KY - AQ

MEAC:

Delaware State - AQ

Patriot:

Fordham - AQ

No Big South. No PFL. No NEC. No MAAC. No GWFC.

I think GSU loses to Wofford & Colorado State, going 7-4.
I think The Citadel loses to Elon and App State, and goes 7-4.
I think WIU loses to SIU AND potentially YSU, going (at best) 7-4.
I think Cal Poly loses to NDSU and goes 7-4.
I think Central Arkansas loses to McNeese St and goes 7-4.

Nicholls State runs the table and goes 8-3.
Richmond will finish 8-3.
Montana State needs to win out to go 8-3, which would give them a win over Montana and NAU.

Given that highly unlikely possibility, and considering the fact that I'm potentially forgetting someone big, it actually IS likely that Richmond could be the 5th team from the CAA AND EWU gets in as well. The 15th/16th slots could be a three horse race between Richmond, EWU and Nicholls State....

That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it.... xpeacex xcoffeex xreadx xreadx

2 points - Doesn't The Citadel have 3 losses so 2 more makes 5?
Nicholls St might finish 8-3 but don't they have 2 DII wins?

[AZGrizFan]

2 points - Doesn't The Citadel have 3 losses so 2 more makes 5?
Nicholls St might finish 8-3 but don't they have 2 DII wins?

Correct and correct.

I just realized Nicholls St. scheduled TWO D-II's and TWO I-A's. WTF were they thinking? Talk about a recipe for NOT making the playoffs.

Well, that's it then. In my scenario, Richmond AND EWU are both in then...again, unless I forgot someone.

[89Hen]

I just realized Nicholls St. scheduled TWO D-II's and TWO I-A's. WTF were they thinking? Talk about a recipe for NOT making the playoffs.
Their AD must have gone to the DetriotFlyer school for scheduling to not make the playoffs. xsmiley_wix

[AZGrizFan]

Their AD must have gone to the DetriotFlyer school for scheduling to not make the playoffs. xsmiley_wix

NO shiit. I thought scheduling a D-II and a I-A in the same year was a bad idea. Schedule TWO of each is downright retarded. xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx

[McNeese75]

NO shiit. I thought scheduling a D-II and a I-A in the same year was a bad idea. Schedule TWO of each is downright retarded. xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx


Easy for you to say. You take their football budget and home crowd and see what kind of OOC schedule you can put together xsmhx

[89Hen]

Easy for you to say. You take their football budget and home crowd and see what kind of OOC schedule you can put together xsmhx
xconfusedx That doesn't add up to playing DII's. I assume you're saying they don't have big crowds, so that would mean they don't gain a whole lot by playing DII's at home instead of doing a home and home with say a SWAC, SoCon, etc... xconfusedx

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Those types of scheduling nightmares are exactly why schools like UNH UMass and Maine don't want to leave the CAA.

12 teams and a rotating schedule, while not perfect, is far superior to scrambling to secure 5 OOC games every year.

8 games in conference that are as competitive as any, a FBS team for the $$$$, non conference rival game for the fun of it and winnable (on paper) FCS game for the W.

[URMite]

Correct and correct.

I just realized Nicholls St. scheduled TWO D-II's and TWO I-A's. WTF were they thinking? Talk about a recipe for NOT making the playoffs.

Well, that's it then. In my scenario, Richmond AND EWU are both in then...again, unless I forgot someone.

There are 2 or 3 unlikely but possible scenarios that would add nearly comparable teams in the mix (like DSU), and 3 or 4 very unlikely events that would add others with a strong case (like WIU). Each event in isolation is unlikely but if it only takes one of them to occur, then the odds become less than remote.

[URMite]

NO shiit. I thought scheduling a D-II and a I-A in the same year was a bad idea. Schedule TWO of each is downright retarded. xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx

As I've been sprinkling through out the threads, the CAA tiebreaker seems to count both as double or nothing. I-A win counts double and D-II loss takes away a FCS win. It looks like they are trying to encourage teams to be sure that each are winnable.

[AZGrizFan]

Easy for you to say. You take their football budget and home crowd and see what kind of OOC schedule you can put together xsmhx

75---don't get your panties in a bunch. I meant retarded in the kindest possible sense....as in "did they really think they were gonna go 7-0 in their other games?" retarded.....course, they did WIN one of the FBS games, giving them a small 'out', but it doesn't appear as though they've given themselves enough wiggle room....and with 4 of your 11 games against teams that don't help your cause, you've truly painted yourselves into a corner....you being Nicholls State, of course. xsmhx

[Mr. Tiger]

Easy for you to say. You take their football budget and home crowd and see what kind of OOC schedule you can put together xsmhx

I am amazed they can even win with their budget. xnonono2x It is very low.

[McNeese75]

75---don't get your panties in a bunch. I meant retarded in the kindest possible sense....as in "did they really think they were gonna go 7-0 in their other games?" retarded.....course, they did WIN one of the FBS games, giving them a small 'out', but it doesn't appear as though they've given themselves enough wiggle room....and with 4 of your 11 games against teams that don't help your cause, you've truly painted yourselves into a corner....you being Nicholls State, of course. xsmhx

I (not like you) don't wear panties so they are not in a bunch. I agree their schedule put them in the situation where they almost had to win the auto bid to get in. My point is they do not have the flexibility of the Griz to sit home and arrange a favorable schedule for playoff qualification. They cannot schedule FCS teams for home only games and of course cannot afford to cancel or buyout return games (and you know where this could go).

89Hen, scheduling the SWAC (even if they would sign a contract) is not easily done with their required league schedule.

Regardless, they made their own bed and now have to sleep in it.

[ekufbfan]

Just a few observations/opinions after reading everyones else's...

1. Even though the OVC has had a very POOR showing the last 10 years (to say the least), EKU has been there before. It has been too long since the Colonels have been in the playoffs and die hard EKU fans are hungry for a return. Although we still have two games left to seal the auto bid, EKU has made their $$$bid for a home game. I have heard that it is a significant bid, because even though we have been absent a long time, the athletic department knows how important home games are in the playoffs. Will it be enough to seal the deal, we will see. But, don't count out EKU as not being a player in all this, we have been there before.

2. It seems that only App State fans give the Colonels any respect for what our program was and will be again (not could be/WILL BE). Thanks Appy, we have a lot of respect for your program and hope to return to playing you guys during the regular season.

3. I understand the lack of respect for the OVC (most EKU fans feel the same way, now the other OVC fans will come out of the woodwork to blast EKU, but it's a fact that even they know) and for that reason I am not sure how good this Colonel team is. We lost to a VERY good Univ of Kentucky team this year. Lost to wku (and I think this is one that got away from us, it was in BG, and it seems that the home team usually comes out on top in this rivalry game. I think we could have just as easily won it). We are currently 7-2.

4. Numbers 2 and 3, is why EKU needs to seriously start looking to leaving the OVC.

5. Attendance for a home game Thanksgiving weekend is question mark. UK plays their arch rival Tennessee in Lexington that day and that always hurts us, plus our students will be home for the Thanksgiving Holiday. But if the bid is large enough, I don't guess that matters, just as long as the NCAA gets the money.

GO EKU! Finish THE DRIVE!!!

[james_lawfirm]

2. It seems that only App State fans give the Colonels any respect for what our program was and will be again (not could be/WILL BE). Thanks Appy, we have a lot of respect for your program and hope to return to playing you guys during the regular season.



Why don't you just join the SoCon?

If I was the SoCon decisionmaker, I would trade the OVC Samford for EKU.

[ekufbfan]

Why don't you just join the SoCon?

If I was the SoCon decisionmaker, I would trade the OVC Samford for EKU.


Wish we could! I can tell you, I would rather make a trip to Boone any day of the week than go to Martin, TN!!! xeyebrowx

I hate the makeup of the OVC and many long time fans feel the same. It seems some of the new/young EKU fans don't realize how far the OVC has fallen, it stinks that we are still sticking around. EKU fans take a lot of heat for saying this because we have not won the FB OVC in 10 years. However, we have won the OVC all sports trophy more than any other school the last couple of years. I say we are drowning, or at the very best, just treading water in the OVC. I really don't give a hoot about what the others say, I only care that EKU needs to find a better home!

[AZGrizFan]

I (not like you) don't wear panties so they are not in a bunch. I agree their schedule put them in the situation where they almost had to win the auto bid to get in. My point is they do not have the flexibility of the Griz to sit home and arrange a favorable schedule for playoff qualification. They cannot schedule FCS teams for home only games and of course cannot afford to cancel or buyout return games (and you know where this could go).

89Hen, scheduling the SWAC (even if they would sign a contract) is not easily done with their required league schedule.

Regardless, they made their own bed and now have to sleep in it.

I never said anything about "sitting at home". But scheduling 4 of your 11 games against teams that do NOTHING to move you towards a playoff bid is tantamount to throwing in the towel before the season starts. It just makes absolutely NO sense to do that. They'd have been better off scheduling USD or Dayton or Drake or Savannah State or ANY weak-ass FCS team..even if they had to travel to do it...at least the game would have COUNTED. xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

[McTailGator]

Correct and correct.

I just realized Nicholls St. scheduled TWO D-II's and TWO I-A's. WTF were they thinking? Talk about a recipe for NOT making the playoffs.

Well, that's it then. In my scenario, Richmond AND EWU are both in then...again, unless I forgot someone.


Yea, but they beat one of the FBS's. Had they taken care of Business vs the FCS's they would have been in. Even with a lost to Mcneese.

But I agree that their AD should have thought that out some more.

[Cocky]

Wish we could! I can tell you, I would rather make a trip to Boone any day of the week than go to Martin, TN!!! xeyebrowx

I hate the makeup of the OVC and many long time fans feel the same. It seems some of the new/young EKU fans don't realize how far the OVC has fallen, it stinks that we are still sticking around. EKU fans take a lot of heat for saying this because we have not won the FB OVC in 10 years. However, we have won the OVC all sports trophy more than any other school the last couple of years. I say we are drowning, or at the very best, just treading water in the OVC. I really don't give a hoot about what the others say, I only care that EKU needs to find a better home!

You may have to go with us to FBS. I feel the same way about JSU's position in the OVC, but I don't really want to be in the SOCON either. It appears the SOCON is on a downward trend. If you are taking the low from a conference most on AGS consider one of the lower conferences I don't want in the mix. This doesn't leave many other options.

[ekufbfan]

You may have to go with us to FBS. I feel the same way about JSU's position in the OVC, but I don't really want to be in the SOCON either. It appears the SOCON is on a downward trend. If you are taking the low from a conference most on AGS consider one of the lower conferences I don't want in the mix. This doesn't leave many other options.


And that is the problem......