2022 Playoffs Round 2: Weber State @ #4 Montana State

[Professor Chaos]

Game kicks off at 1PM MT on Saturday 12/3 and will be streamed on ESPN+. Here's how these two teams match up statistically (the number in parenthesis behind the stat value is the corresponding national FCS rank).

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52527350883_b6e4e731af_z.jpg


Winner moves on to face the winner of Gardner-Webb @ #5 William & Mary.

[BisonBacker]

Montana State

[dewey]

Montana State is my pick. Though the 1st game was close and crazy with all of the safeties.

Dewey

[Puddin Tane]

Thanks to the playoffs! I looked up Weber. For some reason i thought they were in Idaho

go grills

[The Cats]

Montana State because they are at home

[FUBeAR]

Thanks to the playoffs! I looked up Weber. For some reason i thought they were in Idaho

go grillsIs Utah not in Idaho anymore?

[FUBeAR]

https://twitter.com/schrayguy/status/1584383574462976002

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Weber State...just a feeling.

[Utgrizfan]

MSU is getting Ifanse back (which could be a good or bad thing, most likely good, only because he hasnt played for over a year is the slight hesitation) along with Chambers and a few O-Linemen so I'm going with MSU.

Both special team units need to bring their A game, MSU gave up a Punt and Kickoff return TD and Weber State gave up 4 safeties.

[Peems]

This is the second round matchup i'm most intrigued by. I would assume Weber is jacked for the chance to get a rematch in a game they thought they had in control. Though I'm sure the long snapper isn't excited to see the MSU fans again!

[JacksFan40]

Weber would’ve won the last time if their long snapper wasn’t a double agent for MSU. Should be another close game, but I think Weber gets it done this time around.

[Professor Chaos]

The team stats breakdown has been added to the first post of the thread.

[WMTribe90]

I think I would have stopped punting after the 2nd or 3rd safety.

[Catbooster]

Weber would’ve won the last time if their long snapper wasn’t a double agent for MSU. Should be another close game, but I think Weber gets it done this time around.
Maybe. But I'm not sure you can take away 4 plays and assume nothing else would have changed.

How about we ignore the 2 special teams mistakes MSU made - the 100 yard KO return and the 91 yard punt return that Weber got? Or maybe just pretend the ref's had called the block in the back on one of those. Or....

Weber came very close to winning that game and it could have very easily gone the other way. But it didn't. We won on the scoreboard and statistically it wasn't that close.

No doubt Weber is an extremely good football team. I think they're a tough matchup and certainly have a good chance of beating MSU. But they don't make me nervous because of the previous game or anything that happened in it. They make me nervous because they're one of (if not the) toughest unseeded teams.

[Daytripper]

This should damn well be a semi-final game. Montana State at home is the difference.

[Preferred Walk-On]

This should damn well be a semi-final game. Montana State at home is the difference.

A semifinal game would imply that Weber State was a #4 seed or better. No poll had Weber State as a top 4. A quarterfinal game, I can get on board with, and this is only one game before that, so...?

Weber State has to be funneled somewhere. Montana State was the selected route. If Montana State is as good as advertised (and I think they are), this will be a complete non-issue.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Just for yucks, in the FCS Bracket Challenge, the breakdown of picks was as follows:

Round 1: 94.3% picked Weber State (33 picks) over North Dakota (2 picks)
Round 2: 18.2% picked Weber State (6 picks) over Montana State (27 picks)

I was a bit surprised at the 4:1 ratio in favor of MSU, but I think this indicates that people think MSU is better, despite the circumstances of their first matchup.

[OhioHen]

Wildcats are a great team but Bobcats have too much.

[MR. CHICKEN]

...NOT EZ TA BEAT....SAME TEAM TWICE...INNA SEASON.............S. UTAH/UTAH TECH.....PLAYED TWICE DIS YEAR:

S. UTAH 31
U. TECH 17

U. TECH 48
S. UTAH 36

[Daytripper]

A semifinal game would imply that Weber State was a #4 seed or better. No poll had Weber State as a top 4. A quarterfinal game, I can get on board with, and this is only one game before that, so...?

Weber State has to be funneled somewhere. Montana State was the selected route. If Montana State is as good as advertised (and I think they are), this will be a complete non-issue.

I meant just by optics and personal feel. I think this will be closer than some expect. Statistics and polls don't color every thought I have.

[jadmt]

Weber gets them this time around. Some barbecued bobcat taste just like chicken..

[SeattleCat]

Montana State has relieved defensive coordinator WIllie Mack Garza of his duties (indefinitely suspended), Linebackers coach and former Bobcat linebacker Bobby Daly will take over as DC.

[dewey]

Montana State has relieved defensive coordinator WIllie Mack Garza of his duties (indefinitely suspended), Linebackers coach and former Bobcat linebacker Bobby Daly will take over as DC.

Wow. That is big news. What happened to make this big change?

Dewey

[SeattleCat]

Wow. That is big news. What happened to make this big change?

Dewey

He has a questionable past, but nothing on blotter recently. Vigen is very tight lipped about things but fan consensus is he sucked. I trust Vigen, 60% of the time, he's right everytime.

[dewey]

He has a questionable past, but nothing on blotter recently. Vigen is very tight lipped about things but fan consensus is he sucked. I trust Vigen, 60% of the time, he's right everytime.

Here is what I just saw....

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkylineSportsMT/status/1597286792662683648

Dewey

[SeattleCat]

Here is what I just saw....

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkylineSportsMT/status/1597286792662683648

Dewey

There was a tweet earlier about this saying one game, but from the sounds of it he's likely done.

[putter]

Was at the first game in Bozo. The 4 safeties will not happen again but if the ref's actually call blocks in the back, then MSU wins this. BBQ's got away with a couple blatant blocks to get their punt return TD's.

[MSUBobcat]

Was at the first game in Bozo. The 4 safeties will not happen again but if the ref's actually call blocks in the back, then MSU wins this. BBQ's got away with a couple blatant blocks to get their punt return TD's.

This 100%. They were absolutely terrible. The first FG should have been a delay of game by a full 3 seconds also. Not saying he would have missed what would have only been a 30 yarder instead of 25, but the fact that there was "00" on the play clock for literally SECONDS and those clowns couldn't even get THAT right... we knew it was gonna be a long day of dog**** calls. On top of the blocks in the back on at least the PR TD, there was a drive in the second half where Bronson was flushed out of the pocket and ran for a big gain all because our D lineman was tackled from behind by the offensive lineman and no call was made. I know people complain about reffing all the time, but I honestly have no idea what game they were watching.

With that in mind... where do you find out which conference the officiating crew will be from in this one?

[Chalupa Batman]

I’ve seen comments about Weber State being given 14 points thanks to missed blocks in the back on their 2 return TD’s, but I didn't see anything blatant on the replay. Some close ones that were at the defenders side and could've been called, but like I said nothing blatant. But let’s say they were missed, that’s 14 points Weber doesn’t get.

People are bringing up how Weber gifted Montana State 8 points from the safeties which is absolutely true. Everyone is forgetting Weber’s punt returner foolishly trying to field a bouncing punt at his own 10 yard line in the last minute of the first half which the Bobcats recovered and turned into a TD, so you can say Weber gifted MSU 7 more points there. If all points are conceded Weber was gifted 14 points (on the 2 return TD’s) and MSU was gifted 15 points (4 safeties and a turnover on their own 10 yard line) you still end up with the Bobcats winning 28-24, but still a very competitive game that could’ve gone either way.

My main takeaway from that game though is quite a few drops by Weber’s receivers. They had one drop with about 6:30 left in the 2nd quarter on an open slant pattern that probably would’ve been a TD, and a huge gain at the very least. WSU was up 24-9 at that point and if it turns into 31-9 that changes the game completely. Instead Montana State gets a safety, TD, another safety, the “gifted” TD on the muffed punt mentioned earlier and has a 27-24 halftime lead. The last drop was on 4th down when they were trying to drive for a game winning TD, otherwise they would’ve had 1st down at the 12 yard line with about 25 seconds left.

I had forgotten how rainy it was that day which probably explain the drops. With better conditions this time around (currently only 4% chance of rain) I expect the Wildcats to clean that up and they should be able to move the ball much better, helping to keep the Bobcat offense off the field. The Montana State offense has been rolling lately, but I think Weber State’s offense can keep up with them this time around and their defense does just enough to pull out a close upset.



*Fun fact about 4 seeds since the field was expanded to 24 teams, they are 8-8 overall. If you take out JMU’s run to the championship in 2016, they are just 4-8. That JMU team is the only 4 seed to even make the semifinals, and 4 times they have lost their 1st game.

[MSUBobcat]

I’ve seen comments about Weber State being given 14 points thanks to missed blocks in the back on their 2 return TD’s, but I didn't see anything blatant on the replay. Some close ones that were at the defenders side and could've been called, but like I said nothing blatant. But let’s say they were missed, that’s 14 points Weber doesn’t get.

People are bringing up how Weber gifted Montana State 8 points from the safeties which is absolutely true. Everyone is forgetting Weber’s punt returner foolishly trying to field a bouncing punt at his own 10 yard line in the last minute of the first half which the Bobcats recovered and turned into a TD, so you can say Weber gifted MSU 7 more points there. If all points are conceded Weber was gifted 14 points (on the 2 return TD’s) and MSU was gifted 15 points (4 safeties and a turnover on their own 10 yard line) you still end up with the Bobcats winning 28-24, but still a very competitive game that could’ve gone either way.

My main takeaway from that game though is quite a few drops by Weber’s receivers. They had one drop with about 6:30 left in the 2nd quarter on an open slant pattern that probably would’ve been a TD, and a huge gain at the very least. WSU was up 24-9 at that point and if it turns into 31-9 that changes the game completely. Instead Montana State gets a safety, TD, another safety, the “gifted” TD on the muffed punt mentioned earlier and has a 27-24 halftime lead. The last drop was on 4th down when they were trying to drive for a game winning TD, otherwise they would’ve had 1st down at the 12 yard line with about 25 seconds left.

I had forgotten how rainy it was that day which probably explain the drops. With better conditions this time around (currently only 4% chance of rain) I expect the Wildcats to clean that up and they should be able to move the ball much better, helping to keep the Bobcat offense off the field. The Montana State offense has been rolling lately, but I think Weber State’s offense can keep up with them this time around and their defense does just enough to pull out a close upset.



*Fun fact about 4 seeds since the field was expanded to 24 teams, they are 8-8 overall. If you take out JMU’s run to the championship in 2016, they are just 4-8. That JMU team is the only 4 seed to even make the semifinals, and 4 times they have lost their 1st game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_99LPRHQXM So Weber's #5 didn't block in the back on MSU #9 at the 20 yard line at the 33:07 mark? I thought the KO return was clean, FWIW. As far as the botched punt return that led to a TD toward the end of the half... players make mistakes trying to make plays. Tommy telegraphed his pass and foolishly threw a pick on the 3rd play of the game. What of it? I'm just comparing things that are really out of the norm. A botched snap for a safety (or TD) isn't out of the norm (see UM in the Brawl), but 4 definitely is. I'll concede all 8 points garnered from the snapper, if they call the block in the back (7 points). That's a net +1 for Weber. MSU still wins by 4 in that case.

It also wasn't really rainy during the game. It was rainy and miserable for tailgating, but by game time it had pretty much subsided.

[Chalupa Batman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_99LPRHQXM So Weber's #5 didn't block in the back on MSU #9 at the 20 yard line at the 33:07 mark? I thought the KO return was clean, FWIW.

It also wasn't really rainy during the game. It was rainy and miserable for tailgating, but by game time it had pretty much subsided.

It looked like a block in the back from the sideline view, but on the replay from the end zone at the 33:43 mark it looks more like he blocks him in the side. Could've easily been called but not as blatant as it first looked.

Maybe the rain didn't have as much effect as I thought, but I imagine the field was still really wet which makes the ball wet at times too.

[CopperCat]

There was a tweet earlier about this saying one game, but from the sounds of it he's likely done.

I haven't seen anything semi-official saying he's done, just fan conjecture at this point. However, I do think he's done.

[dewey]

I am shocked to see Montana State as a 1 point underdog...at home.

https://madduxsports.com/college-football-lines.php

Dewey

[caribbeanhen]

I am shocked to see Montana State as a 1 point underdog...at home.

https://madduxsports.com/college-football-lines.php

Dewey

Some young bookie will be going the way of Hoffa for that one

[dewey]

Some young bookie will be going the way of Hoffa for that one

Right? Seems like Montana State by 6.5 or so to me with the way they are playing.

Dewey

[caribbeanhen]

Right? Seems like Montana State by 6.5 or so to me with the way they are playing.

Dewey

sure does, if Delaware was playing Weber I would have the victory Cigar ready to go

[SeattleCat]

Right? Seems like Montana State by 6.5 or so to me with the way they are playing.

Dewey

It's like the Massey/Saragin bias, We never get the credit that's due. If you look at those ratings half the Big Sky is still ahead of us, seems super accurate for going 8-0 and half the teams you beat are ahead of you. Anyway, easy money there, I bet the line changes significantly.

[MSUBobcat]

I am shocked to see Montana State as a 1 point underdog...at home.

https://madduxsports.com/college-football-lines.php

Dewey

Is this site remotely accurate? It has HC as 9 point dogs, UIW as 4 pt dogs. Inexplicable, they claim Sac State is a FOURTEEN point underdog to Richmond and W&M as 7 point underdogs? Hell, even NDSU at -6.5 seems very low. The only one that seems accurate (and even then maybe too low) is SDSU as 14.5 point favorites. Seems like it's missing the "-" in front of a lot the numbers, even for the Purdue-Michigan. I went to 5dimes and can't find FCS games, tho I did see DII and DII playoff games.

Sports Bet Montana (https://sportsbetmontana.com/en/prematch/football/ncaa-fcs) has the Bobcats as 7.5pt favorites and NDSU as 10.5pt favorites currently. MSU opened at 4.5pt favorites, which I figured is about where Vegas would be, but being MT bettors, they are driving the odds up on the Bobcats.

[caribbeanhen]

Is this site remotely accurate? It has HC as 9 point dogs, UIW as 4 pt dogs. Inexplicable, they claim Sac State is a FOURTEEN point underdog to Richmond and W&M as 7 point underdogs? Hell, even NDSU at -6.5 seems very low. The only one that seems accurate (and even then maybe too low) is SDSU as 14.5 point favorites. Seems like it's missing the "-" in front of a lot the numbers, even for the Purdue-Michigan. I went to 5dimes and can't find FCS games, tho I did see DII and DII playoff games.

Sports Bet Montana (https://sportsbetmontana.com/en/prematch/football/ncaa-fcs) has the Bobcats as 7.5pt favorites and NDSU as 10.5pt favorites currently. MSU opened at 4.5pt favorites, which I figured is about where Vegas would be, but being MT bettors, they are driving the odds up on the Bobcats.

i think you’re looking at those spreads backwards

[ElCid]

Some young bookie will be going the way of Hoffa for that one

Well, the long snapper looked like he was better this past week. LOL.

[MSUBobcat]

i think you’re looking at those spreads backwards

I dunno. I think they're reporting some of them without the minus sign. For example, NDSU, the spread is put on their line as -6.5. Clemson, the visitor, the spread is put on their line as -7.5. It seems that the site puts the spread on the favorite, but doesn't always include the "-" which is key. Dewey, who first posted about MSU being a 1 point underdog and you seemed to agree with, shows the spread on the MSU line as "1" which would be a 1 point underdog.

I did just learn that you can click on the spreads, even though there's no hyperlink, and it shows it correctly as MSU being a 1 point favorite, which I would happily still bet, compared to what our state-run sports bet has.

[SeattleCat]

Wow. That is big news. What happened to make this big change?

Dewey

DUI dudes 3rd or 4th in so many years. He's gone.

[FUBeAR]

DUI dudes 3rd or 4th in so many years. He's gone.
So…you’re tellin’ Dewey he had another DUI. Do he?

[ngineer]

Should be one of the better games of the weekend. I think it goes down the wire. MSU by 2 points.

[dewey]

DUI dudes 3rd or 4th in so many years. He's gone.

Yep. I saw that on another forum. I hope he can get his personal life cleaned up. Best of luck to him personally going forward.

Dewey

[SeattleCat]

Yep. I saw that on another forum. I hope he can get his personal life cleaned up. Best of luck to him personally going forward.

Dewey

Saddest part is all he probably needs to do is stop drinking. Easier said than done for some I suppose.

[MSUBobcat]

Saddest part is all he probably needs to do is stop drinking. Easier said than done for some I suppose.

Alcohol has ruined many lives. I hope he gets the help he needs, but I expect to see a resignation coming soon. After the first one as an assistant at TCU, he resigned the next month. After the second one while at Wyoming in 2019, he resigned less than 2 weeks later. This is his 3rd overall and 2nd in just over 3 years. I wish him the best, but the school needs to distance itself from a habitual offender and he needs to seek help and focus on himself.

[Catbooster]

Great fall day for a football game. Sunny and clear (some clouds predicted mid-day), 16 degrees (high of 30 predicted), maybe 1' of snow on the ground but the stadium is cleared.

Go Bobcats!

[Karl Havoc]

I missed the first play(s)… how did Weber get into MSU territory so quickly?

[Peems]

Missed it as well. Excited to see how Ifanse does for the Bobcats.

[Peems]

Bobcats just driving down with ease.

[Peems]

Chambers QB Sneak, TD Bobcats. 7-3 MSU

[Peems]

Weber's first punt is a success!(phew) ;)

[SeattleCat]

Running with impunity and all the sudden we decide we need to get cute.... WTF

[MSUBobcat]

Running with impunity and all the sudden we decide we need to get cute.... WTF

He should have chucked it instead of eating it. WTF indeed.

[uofmman1122]

Cats making Weber look pretty mediocre.

[SeattleCat]

Weber struggling to contain Chambers and Mellott, Bobcats D turning it up 26-10 Montana State

[SeattleCat]

Cardiac Cats 33-25 Bobcats Win

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Congrats Bobcats!

[CopperCat]

Montana State ran for 388 yards (7.4 yards/attempt) against a top 5 FCS defense. Hard to beat a team like Weber twice, but to do it like they did shows just how good the Cats' offense really is.

[Catbooster]

It was so good to see Ifanse back in - and he wasn't too rusty 10 carries for 91 yards.

[Karl Havoc]

Props to MSU. In 9 years with Jay Hill, no one has run the football on Weber like that, including Power 5 teams. MSU did it twice this year. I believe SDSU is the favorite to win it all but MSU is a close #2.