CAA contenders

[ChickenMan]

The CAA playoff contenders.. overall record.. conference record and remaining oppoenents..


UMass.. 7-1 (5-0)
@URI.. UNH.. @Hofstra

Delaware.. 7-1 (4-1)
JMU.. Richmond.. @Villanova

JMU.. 6-2 (4-1)
@Delaware.. @W&M.. Towson

Richmond.. 6-2 (4-1)
Villanova.. @Delaware.. W&M

UNH.. 6-2 (3-2)
N'eastern.. @UMass.. Maine

Hofstra.. 6-2 (3-2)
W&M.. @N'eastern.. UMass

Villanova.. 5-3 (3-2)
@Richmond.. @Towson.. Delaware

[danefan]

haha... I just read a quote from Bob Ford about our schedule next year and then I have to come here and read this thread:

To start the season we are:
@Umass
Fordham
@UNH
@Hofstra
@Delaware

[blukeys]

haha... I just read a quote from Bob Ford about our schedule next year and then I have to come here and read this thread:

To start the season we are:
@Umass
Fordham
@UNH
@Hofstra
@Delaware

Nothing like jumping into the pool head first!!!xsmiley_wix

[Umass74]

haha... I just read a quote from Bob Ford about our schedule next year and then I have to come here and read this thread:

Do you have a link for that quote?

[danefan]

It's from a pay-only subscription to the Daily Gazzette.
http://www.dailygazette.com/

Here is the quote though:

"If you think our schedule was tough this year, listen to next year's schedule. We are playing UMass, Fordham, New Hampshire, Hofstra, and Delaware to start the season. Four of those games are on the road."

[WrenFGun]

That is not a good start to the season for Albany. Anyone know who UNH's third OOC team is? @Army, Albany...is it @Dartmouth?

[danefan]

That is not a good start to the season for Albany. Anyone know who UNH's third OOC team is? @Army, Albany...is it @Dartmouth?

Or its a great start to a playoff season!xthumbsupx xhurrayx

[Cranium716]

Or its a great start to a playoff season!xthumbsupx xhurrayx

Right...xlolx

No one can say that you guys have a fluff schedule though! Much respect to your AD for having the balls to schedule high-caliber OOC teams!

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

The CAA playoff contenders.. overall record.. conference record and remaining oppoenents..


UMass.. 7-1 (5-0)
@URI.. UNH.. @Hofstra

Delaware.. 7-1 (4-1)
JMU.. Richmond.. @Villanova

JMU.. 6-2 (4-1)
@Delaware.. @W&M.. Towson

Richmond.. 6-2 (4-1)
Villanova.. @Delaware.. W&M

UNH.. 6-2 (3-2)
N'eastern.. @UMass.. Maine

Hofstra.. 6-2 (3-2)
W&M.. @N'eastern.. UMass

Villanova.. 5-3 (3-2)
@Richmond.. @Towson.. Delaware

Two weeks ago I thought UNH would be a lock for the playoffs at 8-3...now I'm not so sure.

[danefan]

Right...xlolx

No one can say that you guys have a fluff schedule though! Much respect to your AD for having the balls to schedule high-caliber OOC teams!


I'm a glass half-full kind of guy.xthumbsupx

And sorry. I didn't mean to "DetroitFlyer" your CAA thread. The CAA is having a great season. What is the possibility we could see an all CAA championship game? Would the committee set up the bracket for that possibility or do they try to avoid those scenarios at all costs?

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I've become a HUGE W&M Fan!!!

[andy7171]

I'm a glass half-full kind of guy.xthumbsupx

And sorry. I didn't mean to "DetroitFlyer" your CAA thread. The CAA is having a great season. What is the possibility we could see an all CAA championship game? Would the committee set up the bracket for that possibility or do they try to avoid those scenarios at all costs?

xlolx xlolx xlolx

If the CAA gets 4 in, which very well COULD happen. They can't all be in the same side of the bracket. Delaware, UMass will host. JMU will go to App State, one of the others (UNH, UR, Hofstra, Nova) are going out west.

Pure speculation. xcoffeex

[BlueHen86]

Two weeks ago I thought UNH would be a lock for the playoffs at 8-3...now I'm not so sure.
The CAA could have 4 teams end at 9 - 2 or better. If they do I think 8 - 3 CAA teams are in trouble. I don't think that a fifth CAA team will make the playoffs at 8 - 3.

[Cranium716]

The CAA playoff contenders.. overall record.. conference record and remaining oppoenents..


UMass.. 7-1 (5-0)
@URI.. UNH.. @Hofstra

Delaware.. 7-1 (4-1)
JMU.. Richmond.. @Villanova

JMU.. 6-2 (4-1)
@Delaware.. @W&M.. Towson

Richmond.. 6-2 (4-1)
Villanova.. @Delaware.. W&M

UNH.. 6-2 (3-2)
N'eastern.. @UMass.. Maine

Hofstra.. 6-2 (3-2)
W&M.. @N'eastern.. UMass

Villanova.. 5-3 (3-2)
@Richmond.. @Towson.. Delaware

This is why I love the CAA! These last three weeks are going to be craziness!

Here is my analysis for how these teams shake out over the course of the last three weeks:

UMasss: A lock for the playoffs. Will have no problem handling URI and Hofstra. UNH will play them close, but even if they lose, not a big deal.
Big Wins: Villanova
Bad Losses: NONE
VERDICT: IN.

UNH: Their schedule favors them over the last three weeks. With wins over Delware, FBS Marshall, and Hofstra, they should be locks as long as they take care of Maine and NE.
Big Wins: @Marshall, Delaware, @Hofstra
Bad Losses: NONE
VERDICT: IN.

Delaware: Really tough last three weeks. Even if they lose two, they should still be in because they'll have the big win over Navy and another win over a top CAA team.
Big Wins: @Navy
Bad Losses: NONE
VERDICT: IN.

JMU: HUGE game this week at Delaware. A win over Richmond would have locked them into the playoffs, but the loss makes this a very important game. Should beat W&M and Towson, although W&M always plays JMU tough.
Big Wins: UNH, Villanova
Bad Losses: NONE
VERDICT: IN.

Richmond: With wins against UNH and JMU, they are in good shape. A win over Villanova or Delaware should secure a spot (and, of course, a win against W&M). That loss at Towson might haunt them a bit though.
Big Wins: UNH, @JMU
Bad Losses: @ Towson
VERDICT: IN.

Villanova: Need to win out and I don't think they can do it with games @ Richmond and vs. Delaware.
Big Wins: Hofstra
Bad Losses: None
VERDICT: OUT.

Hofstra: The only way they get in is with a win against UMass and I don't see that happening.
Big Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
VERDICT: OUT.

Of course this is only how I think things will play out over the last few weeks. Having four ALs in the playoffs is also a long shot, but based solely on the quality of teams based on other playoff contenders from other conferences, I think these five teams, if everything plays out well, are very deserving of the playoffs.

[UNHWildCats]

That is not a good start to the season for Albany. Anyone know who UNH's third OOC team is? @Army, Albany...is it @Dartmouth?

@ Dartmouth and a 12th game is yet unknown.

[WrenFGun]

IMO, UNH is in as long as they take care of business. There just aren't a lot of candidates beyond them, even at 8-3. If EWU and GSU both finish @8-3, then an 8-3 CAA might be in trouble. I just don't see it as likely. I can't see giving EIU or Jac. St a bid over a 5th CAA at 8-3, and same with Holy Cross...Cal Poly could threaten, but a lot would have to go right for teams to even have a shot.

[89Hen]

What is the possibility we could see an all CAA championship game? Would the committee set up the bracket for that possibility or do they try to avoid those scenarios at all costs?


If the CAA gets 4 in, which very well COULD happen. They can't all be in the same side of the bracket.
Other than the obvious need to win playoff games, Andy is correct; it could happen. The two years when the Gateway and CAA had four teams in they were set up with three in one side and one in the other. In 2004 W&M beat UD and lost to JMU while UNH was in the other side. In 2003 Delaware beat SIU and UNI and would have faced WKU if they beat Wofford, WIU was in the other bracket. I remember this because after the Hens beat SIU and UNI so badly, we were rooting for WKU and WIU to keep winning so we'd have an all Gateway road to the title. :p :D

[URMite]

I've become a HUGE W&M Fan!!!

Yes, A 3-0 run by W&M would really limit the CAA at-large bids. And would definitely help put UNH's mind at ease.

[OhioHen]

The CAA could have 4 teams end at 9 - 2 or better. If they do I think 8 - 3 CAA teams are in trouble. I don't think that a fifth CAA team will make the playoffs at 8 - 3.

It's also within the realm of possibility to have all 7 teams finish at 8-3. That would make for some fun decisions on which teams make the playoffs. The standings would look like this (tied teams listed alphabetically) based on the listed results:

James Madison 8-3, 6-2 (lose to Delaware, beat William & Mary and Towson)
Massachusetts 8-3, 6-2 (beat Rhode Island, lose to New Hampshire and Hofstra)
Richmond 8-3, 6-2 (lose to Villanova, beat Delaware and William & Mary)
Villanova 8-3, 6-2 (beat Richmond, Towson and Delaware)
Delaware 8-3, 5-3 (beat James Madison, lose to Richmond and Villanova)
Hofstra 8-3, 5-3 (beat Massachusetts and either William & Mary or Northeastern, lose to the other)
New Hampshire 8-3, 5-3 (beat Massachusetts and either Northeastern or Maine, lose to the other)

A lot of specific games must go just so for the whole thing to happen, but... AGS

[PurpleandGold]

Here's a thought...

I see UD beating JMU (though I sure hope not) & UR and ending the season by slipping up to VU, JMU goes on to handle TU and W&M, UR beats VU and W&M, UMASS wins out and UNH only drops the UMASS game. That leaves UMASS (10-1) and UD (9-2) locks for a bid, and JMU, UR, and UNH all at 8-3.

Assuming the committee is averse to 5 CAA teams, despite what happens in other conferences, which two of those three go?

UR beat both, so that seems easy. JMU beat UNH, but UNH has a I-A win.

[WrenFGun]

I really have no idea how to answer that question. I think all three go, as I've said..UNH would be 6-1 in their last 7 with top 25 wins over Hofstra and 10-1 UD. JMU would be 5-2 in their last 7, but losses to the 2 top teams in the CAA south, and likely 3rd place in the division. JMU's win over UNH was very early, too. I would think JMU would be left out, in that case, but it might be UNH bias. That said, I think all 3 get in.

[UNHWildCats]

Here's a thought...

I see UD beating JMU (though I sure hope not) & UR and ending the season by slipping up to VU, JMU goes on to handle TU and W&M, UR beats VU and W&M, UMASS wins out and UNH only drops the UMASS game. That leaves UMASS (10-1) and UD (9-2) locks for a bid, and JMU, UR, and UNH all at 8-3.

Assuming the committee is averse to 5 CAA teams, despite what happens in other conferences, which two of those three go?

UR beat both, so that seems easy. JMU beat UNH, but UNH has a I-A win.

Rule #1 xrulesx xrulesx xrulesx xrulesx

We never EVER assume UMass will beat UNH! :p xnonono2x xnonono2x xcoffeex xcoffeex xsmiley_wix

[PurpleandGold]

actually, even I think JMU gets left out in that scenario.

I also don't see things panning out just so in the rest of FCS that the committee would have to let 5 CAA teams in, although I'm pulling for it. We need NAU to win out and make the BSC a one bidder. EIU and JSU to drop one a piece, making the OVC a one bidder. SIU to beat WIU giving the GFC just two. Lots of SOCON craziness to make them a two bidder. (specifically ASU beats The Citadel who beats Elon, FU and Wofford win out) CP to lose to NDSU, and the PL and MEAC to beat up their top teams.

This raises an interesting question, who does the committee take, an 8-3 5th CAA team, or an 8-3 second OVC, PL, or MEAC team? Not who should the committee take, but who would the committee take in reality?

[BlueHen86]

I think the committee will resist taking 5 teams from one conference. Five CAA teams at 9 - 2 might get in, but that can't happen this year. A lot would have to happen for a fifth CAA team to get in with an 8 - 3 record.
There would have to be a dearth of 8 - 3 teams from the Gateway, Socon Southland and Big Sky conferences.
Just my guess but an 8 - 3 Patriot team would probably get an invite over the fifth team from the CAA, as would a 9 - 2 Delaware State.

[BlueHen86]

actually, even I think JMU gets left out in that scenario.

I also don't see things panning out just so in the rest of FCS that the committee would have to let 5 CAA teams in, although I'm pulling for it. We need NAU to win out and make the BSC a one bidder. EIU and JSU to drop one a piece, making the OVC a one bidder. SIU to beat WIU giving the GFC just two. Lots of SOCON craziness to make them a two bidder. (specifically ASU beats The Citadel who beats Elon, FU and Wofford win out) CP to lose to NDSU, and the PL and MEAC to beat up their top teams.

This raises an interesting question, who does the committee take, an 8-3 5th CAA team, or an 8-3 second OVC, PL, or MEAC team? Not who should the committee take, but who would the committee take in reality?

My guess would be that a second OVC, PL or MEAC would get the invite.

[bluehenbillk]

JMU has to be a desperate team this week, going 8-3 with 2 CAA South losses back-to-back may put them on the outside looking in. Villanova has no shot of winning out. Hofstra won't make it at 8-3 simply because hey have no quality wins, however they get tripped up in the next 2 weeks & beat UMass last game of the year, who knows?

[WrenFGun]

I think the SoCon will get two at-large berths, and the Gateway one. That means that two of EWU, HC, GSU, Citadel, EIU, CP or JSU would need to get berths, and I don't see that as likely. We'll see, I suppose. JMU going 2-2 in their last four with losses to UD and UR would be tough, but the win over UNH might give them some hope. I'm not yet willing to say that UR can beat Nova and UD, either. The final weeks will be interesting.

[GannonFan]

Where UNH needs to be nervous is if they lose to UMass to go 8-3 and JMU and Richmond are there at 8-3 as well. UNH has the head to head edge against UD, but if UD isn't there (say UD goes 2-1 over the last 3) then that won't help. Richmond and JMU have the head to head against UNH and UNH would have to be the 5th, and unlikely, CAA team in. Of course, if UNH can actually beat UMass then they can cease being worried. xthumbsupx

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Where UNH needs to be nervous is if they lose to UMass to go 8-3 and JMU and Richmond are there at 8-3 as well. UNH has the head to head edge against UD, but if UD isn't there (say UD goes 2-1 over the last 3) then that won't help. Richmond and JMU have the head to head against UNH and UNH would have to be the 5th, and unlikely, CAA team in. Of course, if UNH can actually beat UMass then they can cease being worried. xthumbsupx


Good plan, lets do that!xthumbsupx

[mcveyrl]

JMU has to be a desperate team this week, going 8-3 with 2 CAA South losses back-to-back may put them on the outside looking in. Villanova has no shot of winning out. Hofstra won't make it at 8-3 simply because hey have no quality wins, however they get tripped up in the next 2 weeks & beat UMass last game of the year, who knows?

I agree. We don't win this week, I'm VERY nervous...

[mlbowl]

Shame on all you CAA teams for scheduling a cupcake like Albanyxnonox

[WrenFGun]

I'm not sure the head-to-heads matter that much, particularly with UNH, since they were both very early in the year. They have value, but so does the last half of the season, the quality wins, 2nd in CAA north, etc..UNH can put it to rest if they can beat UMass, but it's easier said than done.

[NovaWildcat]

Villanova has no shot of winning out.

xlolx

[URMite]

Here's a thought...

I see UD beating JMU (though I sure hope not) & UR and ending the season by slipping up to VU, JMU goes on to handle TU and W&M, UR beats VU and W&M, UMASS wins out and UNH only drops the UMASS game. That leaves UMASS (10-1) and UD (9-2) locks for a bid, and JMU, UR, and UNH all at 8-3.

Assuming the committee is averse to 5 CAA teams, despite what happens in other conferences, which two of those three go?

UR beat both, so that seems easy. JMU beat UNH, but UNH has a I-A win.

Yeah, those three (JMU, UNH, UR) look like the most likely 8-3s and I don't know how you rank them. UNH lost both head to head but have a FBS win and probably the only win against a playoff FCS team. UR won both head to head but lost to a non-playoff FCS team. JMU split and would have no bad losses and no good wins.

Plus the other conference will decide if 1, 2 or all 3 get in.

[Kymermosst]

I won't put anything past any one of those teams.

From the UMass perspective, the UNH game will be huge. They HAVE to be fired up after what happened last year...two painfully close games, both ended by a blocked pass on the last play of the game within three weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see UNH come in here and hand us a big fat L.

Also, I wouldn't overlook Hofstra so easily. 2 years ago we were no. 7, wend down to Hempstead, and got it handed to us, 21-10 dropping us to 7-4 and keeping us out of the playoffs. Hofstra always plays well against us, and it's almost always the last game of the season. With their potential playoff situation, they'll play even harder and could make it a VERY intersting situation.

I think we'd have to do something major to not make the playoffs, and I don't see us losing the last 3, but anywhere from 10-1 to 8-3 is totally feasible.

[UMass922]

I won't put anything past any one of those teams.

From the UMass perspective, the UNH game will be huge. They HAVE to be fired up after what happened last year...two painfully close games, both ended by a blocked pass on the last play of the game within three weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see UNH come in here and hand us a big fat L.

Also, I wouldn't overlook Hofstra so easily. 2 years ago we were no. 7, wend down to Hempstead, and got it handed to us, 21-10 dropping us to 7-4 and keeping us out of the playoffs. Hofstra always plays well against us, and it's almost always the last game of the season. With their potential playoff situation, they'll play even harder and could make it a VERY intersting situation.

I think we'd have to do something major to not make the playoffs, and I don't see us losing the last 3, but anywhere from 10-1 to 8-3 is totally feasible.

Agreed on all points. I don't think UMass gets in at 8-3, especially with two straight losses to end the season. The Hofstra game scares me to death; if we split the next two and need to win that game to finish 9-2, I'll be sweating.

EDIT: And heck, considering how URI hung with UNH last week and how UMass has struggled the last couple games, I'm not looking past the URI game, either.

[89Hen]

I won't put anything past any one of those teams.
xnodx xbowx NOTHING would shock me in the last three weeks of the CAA season... although plenty of things could disappoint me. xsmiley_wix

[mcveyrl]

Shame on all you CAA teams for scheduling a cupcake like Albanyxnonox

And we thought this thread could go on without anybody commenting on UM's SOS. The irony is that it's a UM fan.

(FWIW, I have no particular problem with UM's schedule so long as they do what they're supposed to do each week and don't look bad)

[mlbowl]

And we thought this thread could go on without anybody commenting on UM's SOS. The irony is that it's a UM fan.

(FWIW, I have no particular problem with UM's schedule so long as they do what they're supposed to do each week and don't look bad)


I didn't mention Montana's strength of schedulexconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx .....just wondering why half the CAA conference scheduled a cupcake like Albany....sheeeesh

[89Hen]

just wondering why half the CAA conference scheduled a cupcake like Albany....sheeeesh
Probably because we'll all face 3, 4, 5 ranked teams in conference. xcoffeex

[mlbowl]

Probably because we'll all face 3, 4, 5 ranked teams in conference. xcoffeex

Dang you, 89, stay out of this!:p

[89Hen]

Dang you, 89, stay out of this!:p
I'm on friggin fire today. :p

[BDKJMU]

I think the committee will resist taking 5 teams from one conference. Five CAA teams at 9 - 2 might get in, but that can't happen this year. A lot would have to happen for a fifth CAA team to get in with an 8 - 3 record.
There would have to be a dearth of 8 - 3 teams from the Gateway, Socon Southland and Big Sky conferences.
Just my guess but an 8 - 3 Patriot team would probably get an invite over the fifth team from the CAA, as would a 9 - 2 Delaware State.

There won't be enough 8-3 from the Gateway (highly likely will only have 1 at large), Socon (will get probably 2 at large), Southland (probably won't get one (Cent Ark St 5-3 who still has to play @ McNeese) since Nichols St at 8-3 CAN'T be given a bid due to 2 Div II on the schedule which would mean only 6 Div I wins), Big Sky (might get 1)

That leaves 3-5 at large bids left. Give 3 to CAA teams and if there's one-2 left NO WAY a 8-3 Patriot gets an invite over that 5th 8-3 CAA with the exception of Hofstra. Looking at the schedules of the potential non AQ Patriot who could finish 8-3 the SOS isn't even remotely close. Same goes for any non AQ OVC who finishes 8-3. Agreed a 9-2 DSU would get a at-large over any 8-3 CAA. They are probably the only team from the 4 non powerhouse AQ conferences (Southland, OVC, MEAC, Patriot who has a realistic chance of going 9-2 without winning their AQ, and I'm still betting the MEAC AQ goes to DSU.

With the selection committee its probably going to come down to a handfull of 8-3 teams from the non powerhouse conferences + a 5th CAA for that last at-large spot or 2. The 5th CAA will be ranked higher in the polls, GPI, SOS, etc. I'm sure it will be a big debate about it behind closed doors with the committee on the weekend of The 17th-18th. The only way the committee will not take that 5th CAA is if they choose to ignore all that and taked a lesser ranked/rated team. Maybe they will. I'm hoping they don't and SIMPLY pick the 8 best remaining teams for the at-larges. xcoffeex

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

What a week.....JMU goes from # 6 to being on the fence.........

A loss this week at UD may be the final nail in the coffin for the Dukes. I'm all for 5 teams from the CAA making the field but I don't see the committee making that happen.

Best scenario for the Dukes is of course to win out, but I know they do not have much success at UD. This should be a great game.

Go Dukes

[BDKJMU]

It has been pointed out by several that there is talk about the slim possibility of the SoCon getting 4 bids (out of 8 teams) which would be no different than the CAA getting 6 out of 12. More like its 3 out of 8, about 38% of the teams.

The Gateway I believe has had 4 out of 8 teams before. Now they have only 7 teams in the conference. Up until a couple of weeks ago it was assumed the Gateway would get 3 out of 7. Thats about 43%. If the CAA got 5 out of 12, thats about 42%. If the Gateway was in contention for 3 teams in everyone says thats reasonable, but with the notion of the CAA getting 5, a lot of people are saying that would never happen. That makes no sense, since the Gateway getting 3 or the CAA getting 5 is no different percentage wise.

[ChickenMan]

It has been pointed out by several that there is talk about the slim possibility of the SoCon getting 4 bids (out of 8 teams) which would be no different than the CAA getting 6 out of 12. More like its 3 out of 8, about 38% of the teams.

The Gateway I believe has had 4 out of 8 teams before. Now they have only 7 teams in the conference. Up until a couple of weeks ago it was assumed the Gateway would get 3 out of 7. Thats about 43%. If the CAA got 5 out of 12, thats about 42%. If the Gateway was in contention for 3 teams in everyone says thats reasonable, but with the notion of the CAA getting 5, a lot of people are saying that would never happen. That makes no sense, since the Gateway getting 3 or the CAA getting 5 is no different percentage wise.


pure math and logic matters not.. apparently 41.6% of the CAA in the playoffs is way too much.. but 50% of the Gateway or SoCon is acceptable... xrolleyesx

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

If people would think of the CAA North and South as 2 different conferences, the south with an auto bid the north without, all 5 teams would get in at 8-3 or better.

[mcveyrl]

pure math and logic matters not.. apparently 41.6% of the CAA in the playoffs is way too much.. but 50% of the Gateway or SoCon is acceptable... xrolleyesx

Unfortunately for us, my guess is that the committee looks at the percentage of the playoff field taken up. They don't want one conference hogging all the bids.

[BlueHen86]

There won't be enough 8-3 from the Gateway (highly likely will only have 1 at large), Socon (will get probably 2 at large), Southland (probably won't get one (Cent Ark St 5-3 who still has to play @ McNeese) since Nichols St at 8-3 CAN'T be given a bid due to 2 Div II on the schedule which would mean only 6 Div I wins), Big Sky (might get 1)

That leaves 3-5 at large bids left. Give 3 to CAA teams and if there's one-2 left NO WAY a 8-3 Patriot gets an invite over that 5th 8-3 CAA with the exception of Hofstra. Looking at the schedules of the potential non AQ Patriot who could finish 8-3 the SOS isn't even remotely close. Same goes for any non AQ OVC who finishes 8-3. Agreed a 9-2 DSU would get a at-large over any 8-3 CAA. They are probably the only team from the 4 non powerhouse AQ conferences (Southland, OVC, MEAC, Patriot who has a realistic chance of going 9-2 without winning their AQ, and I'm still betting the MEAC AQ goes to DSU.

With the selection committee its probably going to come down to a handfull of 8-3 teams from the non powerhouse conferences + a 5th CAA for that last at-large spot or 2. The 5th CAA will be ranked higher in the polls, GPI, SOS, etc. I'm sure it will be a big debate about it behind closed doors with the committee on the weekend of The 17th-18th. The only way the committee will not take that 5th CAA is if they choose to ignore all that and taked a lesser ranked/rated team. Maybe they will. I'm hoping they don't and SIMPLY pick the 8 best remaining teams for the at-larges. xcoffeex
Good stuff BDKJMU.

We'll see. Given your scenario I think the committee will eschew a fifth CAA team. I hope I'm wrong because it could be the Hens. We'll see in a few weeks.

[URMite]

Unfortunately for us, my guess is that the committee looks at the percentage of the playoff field taken up. They don't want one conference hogging all the bids.

I don't necessarily agree it should be that way, but I think is. It's almost as if they are looking at the semis. 4 of 8 Gateway, SoCon, CAA or whoever is ok, but 5 from one conference in the semis is too many. xsmiley_wix It's a shame.xnonono2x Not saying 5 should go, but that the 5th will be left out for the wrong reason.

[WMTribe90]

Lots of people keep saying there is no way the CAA gets a fifth squad into the field, but I don't understand where this is coming from. As BDKJMU points out, a 5th CAA is less than 50% of the conference, a precedent that the GFC set in 2003 when it got 4 of 8 teams into the field of 16.

More importantly, the selection committee is tasked with selecting the 8 most deserving teams to fill the at-large bids without regard to conference affiliation. There is no maximum number of teams that can come from one conference.

Before 2003 people were on here saying there was no way the commitee would take four teams from one conference. Well, every season is unique and the CAA may very well be experiencing a perfect storm. The conference has done very well OOC, including two FBS wins. To date, there have been fewer upsets of the top tier teams by the lower tier teams. The CAA is the top rated conference in the country. The PFL, MEAC and Southland are looking like one bid leagues and the GFC will likely be limited to two. No way an 8-3 NSU gets in over an 8-3 CAA squad.

The choice for the committee will likely be between a 5th CAA, a 2nd BSC or a 3rd SoCon team. Assuming the 5th CAA squad is an 8-3 JMU, UNH or UR, I don't see how they could be denied given their strength of their individual resume and the overall strength of the conference this year. The resume of an 8-3 MSU or 8-3 EWU does not stack up.

If everthing else was equal I'm realistic enough to realize the committee would opt for parity and exclude a 5th CAA squad, but I don't believe they will commit an obvious injustice to exclude a 5th CAA squad when their mission statement states just the opposite, that conference affliation does not factor into at-large selections.

I'd give the conference a 25% chance for a 5th playoff spot as things sit today.

However, if the 5th CAA squad is UD or Hofstra at 8-3 I think those chances decrease significantly. The commitee would have a ready made excuse to exclude UD because the Hens would only have 7 DI wins (see Villanova in 2001) and three loses in conference (often the default for choosing between conference mates for playoff selection). Hofstra would have the weakest resume of any the potential 8-3 CAA squads.

[89Hen]

Before 2003 people were on here saying there was no way the commitee would take four teams from one conference.
xnodx I remember that discussion and 99% of the people here said no way. Good call. xthumbsupx

[UMass922]

Lots of people keep saying there is no way the CAA gets a fifth squad into the field, but I don't understand where this is coming from. As BDKJMU points out a 5th CAA is less than 50% of the conference a precedent that the GFC set in 2003 when it got 4 of 8 into the field of 16.

More importantly, the selection committee is tasked with selecting the 8 most deserving teams to fill the at-large bids without regard to conference affiliation. There is no maximum number of teams that can come from one conference.

Before 2003 people were on here saying there was no way the commitee would take four teams from one conference. Well, every season is unique and the CAA may very well experience a perfect storm. The conference has done very well OOC, including two FBS wins. To date, there have been fewer upsets of the top tier teams by the lower tier teams. The CAA is the top rated conference in the country. The PFL, MEAC and Southland are looking like one bid leagues and the GFC will likely be limited to two. No way an 8-3 NSU gets in over an 8-3 CAA squad.

The choice for the committee will likely be between a 5th CAA, a 2nd BSC or a 3rd SoCon team. Assuming the 5th CAA squad is an 8-3 JMU, UNH or UR, I don't see how they could be denied given their strength of their individual resume and the overall strength of the conference this year. The resume of an 8-3 MSU or 8-3 EWU does not stack up.

If everthing else was equal I'm realistic enough to realize the committee would opt for parity and exclude a 5th CAA squad, but I don't believe they will commit an obvious injustice to exclude a 5th CAA squad when their mission statement states just the opposite, that conference affliation does not factor into at-large selections.

I'd give the conference a 25% chance for a 5th playoff spot as things sit today.

Agreed. As I said in another thread, as long as the selection criteria state that teams are chosen regardless of conference, I certainly hope the committee is staying true to that. But if the committee is secretly abiding by an unwritten rule capping the number of teams from any one conference--and many people on this board seem to feel that's the case--then that is a huge problem and needs to be addressed. If parity is important to the committee and they want to cap the number of teams per conference at, say, four, that's fine--but they need to be honest about it and just put it explicitly in the rules so that no one's being deceived. That shouldn't be too much to ask.

[WMTribe90]

Agreed. As I said in another thread, as long as the selection criteria state that teams are chosen regardless of conference, I certainly hope the committee is staying true to that. But if the committee is secretly abiding by an unwritten rule capping the number of teams from any one conference--and many people on this board seem to feel that's the case--then that is a huge problem and needs to be addressed. If parity is important to the committee and they want to cap the number of teams per conference at, say, four, that's fine--but they need to be honest about it and just put it explicitly in the rules so that no one's being deceived. That shouldn't be too much to ask.

I understand what you are saying, but I have never heard a quote from a committee member to suggest that they are making their selections based on anyhting other than the established and published selection criteria. There is nothing but unsupported fan speculation to support the claim the the committee would not take a 5th team from one conference. Like you, I do wish the selection committee would be more open about what factors they consider when choosing what they consider to be the best 8 for the at-large selections and the process of pairing and venue selection. However, I do believe they will make their best attempt to choose the best 8 teams regardless of conference (tie breaker going to greater parity).

[URMite]

Lots of people keep saying there is no way the CAA gets a fifth squad into the field, but I don't understand where this is coming from. As BDKJMU points out, a 5th CAA is less than 50% of the conference, a precedent that the GFC set in 2003 when it got 4 of 8 teams into the field of 16.

More importantly, the selection committee is tasked with selecting the 8 most deserving teams to fill the at-large bids without regard to conference affiliation. There is no maximum number of teams that can come from one conference.

Before 2003 people were on here saying there was no way the commitee would take four teams from one conference. Well, every season is unique and the CAA may very well be experiencing a perfect storm. The conference has done very well OOC, including two FBS wins. To date, there have been fewer upsets of the top tier teams by the lower tier teams. The CAA is the top rated conference in the country. The PFL, MEAC and Southland are looking like one bid leagues and the GFC will likely be limited to two. No way an 8-3 NSU gets in over an 8-3 CAA squad.

The choice for the committee will likely be between a 5th CAA, a 2nd BSC or a 3rd SoCon team. Assuming the 5th CAA squad is an 8-3 JMU, UNH or UR, I don't see how they could be denied given their strength of their individual resume and the overall strength of the conference this year. The resume of an 8-3 MSU or 8-3 EWU does not stack up.

If everthing else was equal I'm realistic enough to realize the committee would opt for parity and exclude a 5th CAA squad, but I don't believe they will commit an obvious injustice to exclude a 5th CAA squad when their mission statement states just the opposite, that conference affliation does not factor into at-large selections.

I'd give the conference a 25% chance for a 5th playoff spot as things sit today.

However, if the 5th CAA squad is UD or Hofstra at 8-3 I think those chances decrease significantly. The commitee would have a ready made excuse to exclude UD because the Hens would only have 7 DI wins (see Villanova in 2001) and three loses in conference (often the default for choosing between conference mates for playoff selection). Hofstra would have the weakest resume of any the potential 8-3 CAA squads.

I believe we can get a 5th but that they will be looking for parity. If they can convince themselves that someone else (my opinion 2nd BSC or OVC) is a legitimate contender they will not take the 5th.

I agree that 8-3 HU doesn't have the resume, but they may look longer at UD mainly for the $$$.

[HensRock]

Southland (probably won't get one (Cent Ark St 5-3 who still has to play @ McNeese)

I don't think that UCA is eligible anyway having moved up from Div-II just recently. Aren't they still in probation period?

[89Hen]

I don't think that UCA is eligible anyway having moved up from Div-II just recently. Aren't they still in probation period?
I'd have to believe they aren't eligible to 2009 at the earliest. I pretty sure NDSU and SDSU moved up at least a year before UCA.

[URMite]

UMass, UD, UR, JMU, & UNH should all just finish 9-2 and end this discussion! xnodx Oh that's right, damn us(UR) for making that impossiblexoopsx

[BDKJMU]

I'd have to believe they aren't eligible to 2009 at the earliest. I pretty sure NDSU and SDSU moved up at least a year before UCA.

Didn't know that- that means there will be no Southland at large.

[Col Hogan]

UMass, UD, UR, JMU, & UNH should all just finish 9-2 and end this discussion! xnodx Oh that's right, damn us(UR) for making that impossiblexoopsx

One other issue...we don't plan to lose to URI, UNH, or HU... :)

[UMass922]

I understand what you are saying, but I have never heard a quote from a committee member to suggest that they are making their selections based on anyhting other than the established and published selection criteria. There is nothing but unsupported fan speculation to support the claim the the committee would not take a 5th team from one conference. Like you, I do wish the selection committee would be more open about what factors they consider when choosing what they consider to be the best 8 for the at-large selections and the process of pairing and venue selection. However, I do believe they will make their best attempt to choose the best 8 teams regardless of conference (tie breaker going to greater parity).

Don't get me wrong; I'm not talking about anything other than unsupported fan speculation either. I'm just saying that if that speculation is actually true, then we have a serious problem. But most of the speculators talk about it as though it's just a given and no big deal.

[FargoBison]

I'd have to believe they aren't eligible to 2009 at the earliest. I pretty sure NDSU and SDSU moved up at least a year before UCA.

Last year was UCA's first year so that means they'll be good to go in 2010.