Final Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

Well, it's all been decided and is now in the hands of the committee. There's another thread about the seeds so I figured I'd focus this mainly on the at-large selections. I broke it down by conference and grouped teams as locks and on the bubble. I think the teams hoping for bubble anarchy had a pretty good day today but here's how I see it.


Big Sky
The Big Sky has 3 locks - Sac St will be the auto but both they and Montana St will be in and will be high seeds. I think Weber St will end up being one of the best teams playing next weekend. After that it gets sketchy - I think Idaho's win @Montana will pay dividends and likely get them in. Montana has to hope the committee values the eye test more than the results since they don't have much for impressive wins. I still included UC Davis because they once again gave a top team all they wanted at Sac St today but I don't think there's any 6-5 teams that make the field this year (although they'd be the one if there was).

Locks
Sac St 11-0 (8-0)
Montana St 10-1 (8-0)
Weber St 9-2 (6-2)

On the bubble
Idaho 7-4 (6-2)
Montana 7-4 (4-4)
UC Davis 6-5 (5-3)


CAA
The CAA has 4 teams locked in and I think William & Mary is in line for a seed - the rest of the locks will likely be playing next weekend. Beyond that Delaware might've played themselves out today but I still think they have a good shot at 7-4 with that FBS win and their win over URI. Despite having a better conference record than Delaware I think Rhode Island slots in behind the Blue Hens in the CAA pecking order due to that head-to-head loss I don't think the CAA is getting 6 bids this year.

Locks
William & Mary 10-1 (7-1)
New Hampshire 8-3 (7-1)
Richmond 8-3 (6-2)
Elon 8-3 (6-2)

On the bubble
Delaware 7-4 (4-4)
Rhode Island 7-4 (5-3)


MVFC
Both locks in the MVFC should be seeded and I think SDSU will be either the #1 or #2 seed. It's tough to feel too comfortable this year at 7-4 but I think UND is one of the 7-4 teams that should feel the best. Their head-to-head win over YSU should help them quite a bit in terms of bubble positioning putting them as the #3 team in the MVFC. YSU got quite a bit of help today but is it enough? I'd say probably not but you never know.

Locks
SDSU 10-1 (8-0)
NDSU 9-2 (7-1)

On the bubble
UND 7-4 (5-3)
YSU 7-4 (5-3)


SOCON
It was a rough day for the SOCON as a whole. Samford did well and locked themselves into a seed perhaps a top 4 seed. Furman is also locked in and has an outside shot at a seed but I think they'll end up being one of the better teams playing next weekend. Chattanooga might've played themselves out with a loss @WCU today and that was the worst case scenario for Mercer after their OT loss to Samford since they'll slot in behind Chattanooga in the SOCON pecking order. I once thought the SOCON was likely to get 4 bids and was a shoe-in for at least 3 but they could plausbily get knocked all the way down to 2 depending on how the committee sees things. I still think 3 is the most likely number for them.

Locks
Samford 10-1 (8-0)
Furman 9-2 (7-1)

On the bubble
Chattanooga 7-4 (5-3)
Mercer 7-4 (5-3)


OVC and Southland
Things got real simple here once SEMO won the OVC coin flip. I included UTM on the bubble but I think they stack up unfavorably with almost everyone else on the bubble so I'd be shocked if they make it in. Even though SLU is the Southland auto I think UIW is the team in line for a seed but probably in the #5-#8 range.

Locks
Incarnate Word 10-1 (5-1)
SEMO 9-2 (5-0)
SLU 8-3 (5-1)

On the bubble
UT Martin 7-4 (5-0)


Others
The only locks in this group are the autos for the Patriot (Holy Cross), Big South (Gardner-Webb), and ASUN/WAC (EKU - I think... haven't seen anything definitive on this but that's who Craig Haley says is likely to get it). Holy Cross is the only one in the seeds - no one else in this group is particularly close. Fordham and FAMU are likely to be the biggest questions marks here. Does the committee take one or both with their impressive 9-2 records but lack of quality wins and poor SOS? I think Fordham has a much better argument than FAMU. Austin Peay has a shot at an at-large but I don't see them having a good enough argument with their win over EKU. I think ACU played themselves out today with a home loss to SFA and their best win (SHSU) doesn't look as good anymore either (they also only have 6 D1 wins). I included NC A&T but I don't think they've got much of a shot either.


Locks
Holy Cross 11-0 (6-0)
EKU 7-4 (3-2)
Gardner Webb 6-5 (5-0)

On the bubble
Fordham 9-2 (5-1)
Florida A&M 9-2 (7-1)
Austin Peay 7-4 (3-2)
ACU 7-4 (4-1)
NC A&T 7-4 (4-1)



So here's how the field breaks down as we know it.

The automatic qualifiers
ASUN/WAC: EKU (7-4)
Big Sky: Sac St (11-0)
Big South: Gardner-Webb (6-5)
CAA: William & Mary (10-1)
MVFC: SDSU (10-1)
NEC: St Francis (9-2)
OVC: SEMO (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (11-0)
Pioneer: Davidson (8-3)
SOCON: Samford (10-1)
Southland: SLU (8-3)


The at-large field
There's 13 at-large available - I have 8 of them taken by the locks:
Big Sky - Montana St (10-1), Weber St (9-2)
CAA - UNH (8-3), Richmond (8-3), Elon (8-3)
MVFC - NDSU (9-2)
SOCON - Furman (9-2)
Southland - UIW (10-1)

That leaves 5 spots for the 15 teams I have on the bubble:
Big Sky - Idaho (7-4), Montana (7-4), UC Davis (6-5)
CAA - Delaware (7-4), URI (7-4)
MVFC - UND (7-4), YSU (7-4)
SOCON - Chattanooga (7-4), Mercer (7-4)
OVC - UTM (7-4)
Patriot - Fordham (9-2)
SWAC - FAMU (9-2)
ASUN - Austin Peay (7-4)
WAC - ACU (7-4)
Big South - NC A&T (7-4)

How I see it:
Last 5 in: Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4), Delaware (7-4), Montana (7-4)
First 5 out: Fordham (9-2), Mercer (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), YSU (7-4)


What do you think? Feel free to throw out your guesses for those 5 spots in question (or the previous 8 as well if you don't think the locks I have are accurate).

I'll throw a bracket together for Ss & Gs later tonight.

[Chalupa Batman]

Here is what I came up with. I'm also assuming Eastern Kentucky will be the WAC/Sun representative.


Home/away teams aren't predicted in the first round, just matchups:

Davidson (8-3)/Mercer (7-4) @ #1 Sacramento State
Weber State (9-2)/Southeastern Louisiana (8-3) @ #8 Incarnate Word

St. Francis (8-3)/Richmond (8-3) @ #4 William & Mary
Gardner-Webb (6-5)/Chattanooga (7-4) @ #5 Samford

Southeast Missouri State (9-2)/Eastern Kentucky (7-4) @ #3 Montana State
Furman (9-2)/Elon (8-3) @ #6 North Dakota State

Idaho (7-4) North Dakota (7-4) @ #2 South Dakota State
New Hampshire (8-3)/Fordham (9-2) @ #7 Holy Cross


Last 4 In: Chattanooga, Fordham, Mercer, North Dakota
First 4 Out: Austin Peay, Delaware, Rhode Island, Montana


Flame away flamers!

[JSUSoutherner]

Fordham's only losses are a close game to the MAC champ and an even closer game to a team that's cruising to a top 8 seed.

Not sure you can really justify leaving them out.

[BeamMeUp]

Admittedly biased when I say this, but I do think how you play down the stretch matters. YSU won 5 of their last 6 games to get to this point. They play in the #1 conference in the FCS based on the computers. I'd rather have that momentum at 7-4 than losing 3 of your last 4 like some teams on the bubble (Mercer, Delaware, Chattanooga). If they don't, they had very winnable games they blew vs UND and MSU that cost them.

[WrenFGun]

Great job as always. There are 19 locks imo. It's the final five that will be interesting.

Will post mine tomorrow morning, but I think UC Davis should be the fourth team from the BSC.

[taper]

I think UC Davis is out and that's a shame. In the running for best team in history left out. Has anybody ever played three top 4 seeds before? Just 16 combined points would give them wins over SDSU, Weber, and Sac St and a top 2 seed.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer played their way ahead of Chattanooga & Chattanooga played their way behind Mercer in the SoCon pecking order today.

[Professor Chaos]

Fordham's only losses are a close game to the MAC champ and an even closer game to a team that's cruising to a top 8 seed.

Not sure you can really justify leaving them out.
They have an argument - came down to them and Montana for that last spot for me. Neither have any bad losses and Montana probably has the "best loss" (if that's a thing) taking the likely #1 seed to OT. I also think Montana was more impressive in their wins over lesser teams than Fordham was. That said Montana has 4 FCS losses to Fordham's 1... it's a coin flip.

[Professor Chaos]

Mercer played their way ahead of Chattanooga & Chattanooga played their way behind Mercer in the SoCon pecking order today.
They finished with the same W-L overall, in conference, and against FCS teams. Head-to-head result is the obvious tie breaker in that scenario. Trying to use results against common opponents in WCU and Samford is pretty silly when head-to-head exists.

[Professor Chaos]

Admittedly biased when I say this, but I do think how you play down the stretch matters. YSU won 5 of their last 6 games to get to this point. They play in the #1 conference in the FCS based on the computers. I'd rather have that momentum at 7-4 than losing 3 of your last 4 like some teams on the bubble (Mercer, Delaware, Chattanooga). If they don't, they had very winnable games they blew vs UND and MSU that cost them.
The MVFC is a blessing and a curse for YSU this year I think. You're right that top-to-bottom the conference is still at or near the top of the heap when you look at any of the full conference computer rankings but the lack of playoff worthy teams relative to other years in the MVFC really makes YSU's wins look hollow when you break them down. When 6-5 Illinois St (with their backup QB) is your best win and that loss to 5-6 Missouri St is dragging you down it's going to be tough sledding.

[BeamMeUp]

The MVFC is a blessing and a curse for YSU this year I think. You're right that top-to-bottom the conference is still at or near the top of the heap when you look at any of the full conference computer rankings but the lack of playoff worthy teams relative to other years in the MVFC really makes YSU's wins look hollow when you break them down. When 6-5 Illinois St (with their backup QB) is your best win and that loss to 5-6 Missouri St is dragging you down it's going to be tough sledding.
All valid points, but hoping momentum when it matters is enough. Would be a damn shame for the best league to have just 3 teams make it in this year.

[mvfcfan]

Here's my field.

The AQ 11

At larges (In no order):
MT ST
WEBER
UNH
ELON
RICHMOND
NDSU
FORDHAM
FURMAN
UIW

LAST 4 IN (In order)
1) Idaho
2) UND
3) UTC
4) UTM

-----------------------

By Conference (with 2+ bids)
B SKY: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 3
SOCON: 3
SLC: 2
PAT: 2
OVC: 2

[Professor Chaos]

Here's my field.

The AQ 11

At larges (In no order):
MT ST
WEBER
UNH
ELON
RICHMOND
NDSU
FORDHAM
FURMAN
UIW

LAST 4 IN (In order)
1) Idaho
2) UND
3) UTC
4) UTM

-----------------------

By Conference (with 2+ bids)
B SKY: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 3
SOCON: 3
SLC: 2
PAT: 2
OVC: 2
What's your reasoning for UTM? They've got a whole lot of nothing for wins and some icky losses to Missouri St and Kennesaw St (not to mention barely squeaking by 2-9 EIU today at home in a game they knew they had to win).

[caribbeanhen]

Delaware should not be in the playoff discussion but it will still hurt to see them as last team out

[uofmman1122]

Delaware should not be in the playoff discussion but it will still hurt to see them as last team out
This is how I feel about Montana. xrotatehx

[Professor Chaos]

Delaware should not be in the playoff discussion but it will still hurt to see them as last team out
Yeah, I'm having 2nd thoughts about including Delaware. I gave them credit for a win over fellow bubble member URI and I think their win over Navy looks pretty good after the Midshipmen gave Notre Dame all they could handle last week and beat #20 UCF today. The committee is flaky (like the rest of us) when it comes to what they give credit and discredit for from team to team but they always love FBS wins and Delaware has a good one.

But... losing 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6 isn't a good look. Delaware definitely gave the committee plenty of excuses to leave them out.

[taper]

The committee has stated in the past that recent games count more than earlier ones. That helps some and hurts others.

[Professor Chaos]

EKU confirmed as the ASUN/WAC automatic qualifier:

https://twitter.com/EKUFootball/status/1594156731524911104

[katss07]

Craig Haley also has Martin in his bracket… for some reason.

[POD Knows]

They have an argument - came down to them and Montana for that last spot for me. Neither have any bad losses and Montana probably has the "best loss" (if that's a thing) taking the likely #1 seed to OT. I also think Montana was more impressive in their wins over lesser teams than Fordham was. That said Montana has 4 FCS losses to Fordham's 1... it's a coin flip.
No way on Montana but they probably get in because of their "following". They **** the bed today, they would be out of the running for me. They quite literally beat nobody.

[dewey]

Craig Haley also has Martin in his bracket… for some reason.

I just don't see it. 2 FBS losses (not bad at all) but UTM has 2 bad losses to Missouri State and Kennesaw State with zero good wins.

Dewey

[Professor Chaos]

Craig Haley also has Martin in his bracket… for some reason.
Weird... I don't see them as even being particularly close. I guess you can sympathize for them since their season ended with a coin toss but they don't have nearly enough to back it up to feel that jaded. Beat either Missouri St or Kennesaw St (or both) and it's a different story. Had the OVC used any "normal" metric that most conferences use in that scenario which is to go to a computer ranking of their choice UTM probably wasn't beating SEMO in that scenario either.

[dewey]

Weird... I don't see them as even being particularly close. I guess you can sympathize for them since their season ended with a coin toss but they don't have nearly enough to back it up to feel that jaded. Had the OVC used any "normal" metric that most conferences use in that scenario which is to go to a computer ranking of their choice UTM probably wasn't beating SEMO in that scenario either.

I don't see why all of the OVC teams do not play each other. There are only 7 teams in the conference.

Dewey

[JacksFan40]

I don't see why all of the OVC teams do not play each other. There are only 7 teams in the conference.

Dewey
Pretty sure it’s because Lindenwood moving up screwed up the scheduling.

[taper]

I don't think I'd call UTM's loss to MOST bad. MOST was top 10 at the time and until midway through the 4th quarter of the later Arkansas game they were looking really, really good. Total collapse after, almost like 2 different teams.

[Chalupa Batman]

I don't see why all of the OVC teams do not play each other. There are only 7 teams in the conference.

Dewey


Pretty sure it’s because Lindenwood moving up screwed up the scheduling.

Yes it’s because of Lindenwood. Since everyone’s non-conference games were scheduled, the OVC took away 1 conference game from each team. It would have been an incredibly dick move to make everyone cancel a non-conference game, not to mention the logistics of getting each team to cancel one of those games and not all on the same weekend are near impossible.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I mentioned earlier that I believe UTM could be a "surprise" inclusion because they're a "solid enough" team who lost the auto-bid on a coin flip. My issue with UTM is a bad schedule of their own creation. There's no reason to put 2 sure losses (UT and Boise State) on the schedule when you play in the OVC. You need quality FCS opportunities/wins.

If UTM were to get in I think they could be a dangerous team. I've kept an eye on them since last season. They're a fun team to watch. They remind me a little of Fordham....

[katss07]

You may not consider Missouri State a “bad loss”, but still I just don’t see what warrants UTM’s inclusion over, say, a 7-4 Delaware that beat Navy and Rhode Island or a 6-5 UC Davis that beat Idaho.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

You may not consider Missouri State a “bad loss”, but still I just don’t see what warrants UTM’s inclusion over, say, a 7-4 Delaware that beat Navy and Rhode Island or a 6-5 UC Davis that beat Idaho.

Conference winner. There's historical precedent that indicates it has mattered....

Losing a bid on a coin-flip will absolutely be debated. UTM is without question going to be a fascinating, perhaps the most fascinating team to watch tomorrow as the bracket is unveiled....

[MTfan4life]

Florida A&M will surely get in again. Just watch.

[The Boogie Down]

How I see it:
Last 5 in: Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4), Delaware (7-4), Montana (7-4)
First 5 out: Fordham (9-2), Mercer (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), YSU (7-4)


What do you think? Feel free to throw out your guesses for those 5 spots in question (or the previous 8 as well if you don't think the locks I have are accurate).

I'll throw a bracket together for Ss & Gs later tonight.


Fordham lost 2 games (@Ohio, @Holy Cross) all season long. Both losses came on the last play of the game.

Chattanooga lost 3 of their last 4. Delaware lost 3 of their last 4. Montana lost 4 of their last 6. I get that they all played harder schedules than Fordham but Fordham scored 50 on Colgate just as easily as they did Ohio (1st place MAC-East).

The Rams average 50+ points a game and 600+ yards of offense a game. I doubt even w/lesser schedules any other bubble team could put up those numbers.

[Professor Chaos]

Fordham lost 2 games (@Ohio, @Holy Cross) all season long. Both losses came on the last play of the game.

Chattanooga lost 3 of their last 4. Delaware lost 3 of their last 4. Montana lost 4 of their last 6. I get that they all played harder schedules than Fordham but Fordham scored 50 on Colgate just as easily as they did Ohio (1st place MAC-East).

The Rams average 50+ points a game and 600+ yards of offense a game. I doubt even w/lesser schedules any other bubble team could put up those numbers.
I get it - I just think that when your argument for inclusion starts and ends with who you lost to it's going to be flimsy. The offensive output argument doesn't really hold water with me either. You're getting into super subjective territory there but if you're going to do that shouldn't you also ask if Montana or Delaware would give up 49 and 45 points to Monmouth and Albany? Delaware actually played Monmouth and gave up 17.

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fordham is in over any of those 3 teams especially Montana. All of those teams, Fordham included, have warts on their resumes so it comes down to which warts the committee sees as the bigger issue.

[caribbeanhen]

Florida A&M will surely get in again. Just watch.

totally agree and Fordham also

[lionsrking2]

I just don't see it. 2 FBS losses (not bad at all) but UTM has 2 bad losses to Missouri State and Kennesaw State with zero good wins.

Dewey
Delaware and Rhode Island should be in over them.

[lionsrking2]

I mentioned earlier that I believe UTM could be a "surprise" inclusion because they're a "solid enough" team who lost the auto-bid on a coin flip. My issue with UTM is a bad schedule of their own creation. There's no reason to put 2 sure losses (UT and Boise State) on the schedule when you play in the OVC. You need quality FCS opportunities/wins.

If UTM were to get in I think they could be a dangerous team. I've kept an eye on them since last season. They're a fun team to watch. They remind me a little of Fordham....

If they are, it's due to geographical balance IMO. May need an extra team in the middle to keep bus rides in play.

[Chalupa Batman]

If they are, it's due to geographical balance IMO. May need an extra team in the middle to keep bus rides in play.

I would hope that travel expenses are not at all a part of the selection process.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Fordham is safely in imo. The PL has earned their once in a blue moon at-large bid this year. The Rams warts simply are not egregious enough to keep them out. Enjoy it, savor it, make the most of it....

IMO, the pool of Youngstown State, Delaware, UTM and North Dakota, perhaps Florida A&M intrigue me the most. There's a lot of angles to approach things....

[Bisonoline]

I would hope that travel expenses are not at all a part of the selection process.

But it is. They try to regionalize games to cut down on expenses.

[Chalupa Batman]

But it is. They try to regionalize games to cut down on expenses.

I realize that, but teams are matched up regionally after they are selected. At least that's what I would hope.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's a wild guess of a bracket:

St Francis @ Richmond to #1 Sac St
UNH @ Delaware to #8 Holy Cross
SEMO @ SLU to #5 Samford
UND @ Montana to #4 NDSU
Idaho @ Weber St to #3 Montana St
Davidson @ Furman to #6 William & Mary
Gardner-Webb @ Elon to #7 UIW
EKU @ Chattanooga to #2 SDSU

[The Boogie Down]

I get it - I just think that when your argument for inclusion starts and ends with who you lost to it's going to be flimsy. The offensive output argument doesn't really hold water with me either. You're getting into super subjective territory there but if you're going to do that shouldn't you also ask if Montana or Delaware would give up 49 and 45 points to Monmouth and Albany? Delaware actually played Monmouth and gave up 17.

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fordham is in over any of those 3 teams especially Montana. All of those teams, Fordham included, have warts on their resumes so it comes down to which warts the committee sees as the bigger issue.

Okay, I get that you get it, so that's cool.

And I get that I'm now gonna be even more subjective and even more of a dead horse beater now but.... it's not like Fordham and Delaware were going up against the same Monmouth QB's. Delaware gave up 17 to Monmouth's backup QB. The Monmouth team Fordham played included Tony Muskett. At the time of his injury Monmouth had the #1 O in all of the CAA. So yeah, I know, very nitpicky, but did wanna point that out.

As for the warts... Eh, the only thing I see as wartier than coming up short against Villanova is losing to Western Carolina. At least Montana lost to a power team, although even there, they never really showed up.

[The Boogie Down]

Fordham is safely in imo. The PL has earned their once in a blue moon at-large bid this year. The Rams warts simply are not egregious enough to keep them out. Enjoy it, savor it, make the most of it.....

Always liked this guy xdrunkyx

[MTfan4life]

The more I look at it, I just can't seed Incarnate Word. They beat a very bad, now 2-9 Nevada team, lost to SELA, and their next best win is over 5-6 SIU. Weber State, on the other hand, destroyed a now 6-5 Utah State team, lost to #1 Sac State and #3 Montana State, and beat UC Davis and Montana as well.

[WrenFGun]

The more I look at it, I just can't seed Incarnate Word. They beat a very bad, now 2-9 Nevada team, lost to SELA, and their next best win is over 5-6 SIU. Weber State, on the other hand, destroyed a now 6-5 Utah State team, lost to #1 Sac State and #3 Montana State, and beat UC Davis and Montana as well.

Think you're right on UIW, but I think Furman should get a.look there too. No problem with either of those teams over.Incarnate Word though.

[mvfcfan]

What's your reasoning for UTM? They've got a whole lot of nothing for wins and some icky losses to Missouri St and Kennesaw St (not to mention barely squeaking by 2-9 EIU today at home in a game they knew they had to win).

5-0 in conference, and I don't think the committee will punish them because a coin toss didn't go their way. Two of their losses were also to FBS schools. Could be wrong, but that's just my guess. If they don't make it, it will be because of that KSU loss.

Wouldn't be surprised if UTM @ SEMO is a playoff game.

[UNHWildcat18]

Fordham is safely in imo. The PL has earned their once in a blue moon at-large bid this year. The Rams warts simply are not egregious enough to keep them out. Enjoy it, savor it, make the most of it....

IMO, the pool of Youngstown State, Delaware, UTM and North Dakota, perhaps Florida A&M intrigue me the most. There's a lot of angles to approach things....

their best win is against a 5-6 Monmouth team. Not sure if they get in but don't be surprised if they don't

[Professor Chaos]

Looks like even UTM themselves are thinking they're out of serious playoff consideration:

https://twitter.com/UTMSports/status/1594211195292188673

[Professor Chaos]

The more I look at it, I just can't seed Incarnate Word. They beat a very bad, now 2-9 Nevada team, lost to SELA, and their next best win is over 5-6 SIU. Weber State, on the other hand, destroyed a now 6-5 Utah State team, lost to #1 Sac State and #3 Montana State, and beat UC Davis and Montana as well.
You're right but I think politics works against Weber St. The Big Sky has gotten 7 seeds in the last two (full) playoffs. Does the committee give them 3 seeds again?

The argument for UIW is they've done exactly what a seeded team should do against their week schedule. No one has gotten within 28 points of them since the SLU game (which they lost on an inexplicably horribly defended 59 yard catch and run as time expired). My opinion is in the cases of teams like UIW and Montana, where their quality wins are lacking compared to teams they're being compared against, is that they dominated lesser competition for the most part. Can't really say that about teams like Fordham and FAMU and UTM.

[FUBeAR]

Massey has 3 SoCon Teams IN, 1 seed - Samford, Furman, and Mercer.
Also has..
6 Big Sky (3 seeds)
4 MVFC (2 seeds)
3 CAA (1 seed)
2 Southland (1 seed)
Remaining 6 are Conf AQ’s - PFL, Big South, NEC, WAC/ASUN, OVC, Patriot League.

Let’s run with this and give the Committee the day off.

FUBeAR will understand, though, if y’all wanna knock out Massey’s 6-5’s - 1 each from the Big Sky & the MVFC - and stick 9-2 FAMU & 9-2 Fordham in the field. Then, everyone should be happy..right?

[WrenFGun]

Here's my bracket projection:

LOCKS:


EKU [ASUN/WAC AB]
SAC STATE [BSC AB]
Montana State
Weber State
GARDNER WEBB [Big South AB]
W&M [CAA AB]
UNH
Richmond
Elon
SDSU [MVFC AB]
NDSU
ST FRANCIS [NEC]
SEMO [OVC AB]
HOLY CROSS [PATRIOT AB]
DAVIDSON [PFL AB]
SAMFORD [Socon AB]
Furman
SLU [SLC AB]
Incarnate Word



Austin Peay
UC Davis
Fordham
North Dakota
Mercer

–


I think there are 5 bids open right now, or at least under deliberation, with the following teams under consideration:


Austin Peay [7-4, 2 FBS losses, win over playoff bound EKU]
Idaho [7-4, win over Montana, close losses to Weber State and UC Davis]
UC Davis [6-5, win over Idaho, 2 point loss to SDSU, 5 point loss to Weber State]
Delaware [7-4, win over Rhode Island, 1-3 in their last 4, FBS win]
North Dakota [7-4, wins over Abilene Christian, Youngstown State and Northern Iowa]
Fordham [9-2, 9 DI wins, close losses to Ohio [FBS] and Seeded Holy Cross, 3-0 against CAA]
Chattanooga [7-4, 1-3 in their last 4, critical win over Mercer]
Mercer [7-4, win over Gardner Webb, close loss to Samford in 2OT to end season]
FAMU [9-2, 9 straight wins, boatraced against both good teams they played]


I have effectively eliminated Rhode Island [same record as Delaware, but lost to them], Youngstown State [same record as North Dakota, but less impressive by every regard and lost to them] and Montana [lost to Idaho who lost to UC Davis, got boatraced to end season].


A few initial thoughts from me:


1. I’m not putting an FAMU team who got boatraced by the only two teams they played this season in the field.


2. I’m incredibly hesitant to put teams that finished 1-3 in the field. The committee has always valued this. In the case of Delaware, I’m eliminating them as the 6th place CAA team [tied with Towson and Villanova]. For me this eliminates Rhode Island, too.


3. Same issue here in the SOCON. I’m not putting a 1-3 Chattanooga team in, but doesn’t that knock Mercer out because of the H2H?


4. I’m not putting in Idaho ahead of UC Davis. UC Davis boatraced them. One D1 win is not enough to sway me otherwise.


All that said that leaves me with the following: Fordham, UC Davis, North Dakota and Austin Peay.


Who’s the last team in? Give me Mercer. Did they lose to Chattanooga? Yes. But they have a win over the Big South Champ and had Samford on the ropes in Samford.

[WrenFGun]

My position on seeds:

1. Sacramento State
2. South Dakota State
3. Montana State
4. Samford
5. William and Mary
6. North Dakota State
7. Holy Cross
8. Furman

[katss07]

1. Sac State
2. South Dakota State
3. Montana State
4. Samford
5. North Dakota State
6. William & Mary
7. Holy Cross
8. Weber State

[FUBeAR]

Mercer [7-4, win over Gardner Webb, close loss to Samford in 2OT to end season]

Who’s the last team in? Give me Mercer. Did they lose to Chattanooga? Yes. But they have a win over the Big South Champ and had Samford on the ropes in Samford.

Truly excellent work! And, you’ve reached the CORRECT conclusion.

Mercer was 6 feet away from punching their ticket in regulation yesterday, on the road, against a 10-1 (potential) Top 4 Seed.

Also…if you need any additional ammo to feel good about your Mercer over Chatt selection…

* Mercer beat the Team that just beat Chatt, by a score of 49-6, just a few weeks ago.
* The Samford Team that Mercer was 72” away from defeating at Home, went on the road to Chatt last week and beat the Mocs by double digits, leading by 3 scores most of the game.
* A week ago, Mercer matched TD’s w/Furman, only losing by a few FG’s, while playing w/o their record breaking WR from the 2nd quarter on (targeting). The week before that, Furman out-TD’d Chatt by a 3-2 count.
* Mercer, just a skosh behind potential seeds, Samford and Furman, is ready to make some NOISE in the Playoffs. Chatt, OTOH, as they have done the past 3 seasons, has again fallen into a deep late season well and just can’t get out.

[FUBeAR]

My position on seeds:

1. Sacramento State
2. South Dakota State
3. Montana State
4. Samford
5. William and Mary
6. North Dakota State
7. Holy Cross
8. Furman
Dang - this along with your prior post is gonna make FUBeAR cry.

You are an FCS savant WrenFGun!

Apologies for any prior doubting of your work. You have a process and FUBeAR should have waited until you worked all the way through that process before judging.

https://domf5oio6qrcr.cloudfront.net/medialibrary/10433/conversions/GettyImages-1220736928-thumb.jpg

[Tribal]

I realize that, but teams are matched up regionally after they are selected. At least that's what I would hope.

Yes, regional round one but opens up at round two.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My thoughts on seeds:

1. Sac State
2. SDSU
3. Montana State
4. NDSU
5. Samford
6. W&M
7. Holy Cross
8. Weber State

[Penguin Nation]

Only 3 bubble teams have a higher SOS (per Massey) than YSU, which is all 3 BSC programs.

YSU gets in with the #1 all time NCAA RB, or I get the dogs and pitchforks.

[Sitting Bull]

1. Sac State
2. SD State
3. Montana State
4. William & Mary
5. ND State
6. Samford
7. Holy Cross
8. Furman

[Professor Chaos]

I mentioned it in the other thread but I disagree with the notion that W&M should be seeded over NDSU. W&M has more wins over playoff contenders in Richmond, URI, and Delaware than NDSU does in wins over UND and YSU but NDSU's schedule was significantly tougher and they both were 9-1 against FCS teams with NDSU's loss being to a much tougher FCS team. W&M does have that FBS win over Charlotte but Charlotte is horrible by FBS standards - Sagarin (going into this week) had them ranked between St Francis and Gardner-Webb and Massey has then ranked just above South Dakota. I don't think that scores that big of an advantage for W&M over NDSU when NDSU played a tougher FBS team and only lost by 3.

[topher99]

If this happens like you have it, I think you flip Davidson and G-Webb since they played Elon already this year. But I think with everything that happened yesterday that the committee will put both FAMU and Fordham in and that will drop Delaware and UTC, giving you FAMU/EKU and UNH/Fordham.


Here's a wild guess of a bracket:

St Francis @ Richmond to #1 Sac St
UNH @ Delaware to #8 Holy Cross
SEMO @ SLU to #5 Samford
UND @ Montana to #4 NDSU
Idaho @ Weber St to #3 Montana St
Davidson @ Furman to #6 William & Mary
Gardner-Webb @ Elon to #7 UIW
EKU @ Chattanooga to #2 SDSU

[Professor Chaos]

If this happens like you have it, I think you flip Davidson and G-Webb since they played Elon already this year. But I think with everything that happened yesterday that the committee will put both FAMU and Fordham in and that will drop Delaware and UTC, giving you FAMU/EKU and UNH/Fordham.
Good call - forgot about Elon and G-W already playing each other earlier this season. I believe the committee is supposed to avoid regular season OOC rematches unless it adds an extra flight and there's enough teams within a 400 mile radius of those two where they could easily be matched up against different teams.

You could be right about Fordham - I'd be more surprised about FAMU getting in but begrudgingly accept that there are other factors that may come into play with their selection.

[JacksFan40]

Truly excellent work! And, you’ve reached the CORRECT conclusion.

Mercer was 6 feet away from punching their ticket in regulation yesterday, on the road, against a 10-1 (potential) Top 4 Seed.

Also…if you need any additional ammo to feel good about your Mercer over Chatt selection…

* Mercer beat the Team that just beat Chatt, by a score of 49-6, just a few weeks ago.
* The Samford Team that Mercer was 72” away from defeating at Home, went on the road to Chatt last week and beat the Mocs by double digits, leading by 3 scores most of the game.
* A week ago, Mercer matched TD’s w/Furman, only losing by a few FG’s, while playing w/o their record breaking WR from the 2nd quarter on (targeting). The week before that, Furman out-TD’d Chatt by a 3-2 count.
* Mercer, just a skosh behind potential seeds, Samford and Furman, is ready to make some NOISE in the Playoffs. Chatt, OTOH, as they have done the past 3 seasons, has again fallen into a deep late season well and just can’t get out.
Mercer beating WCU is not a quality win no matter how you try and spin it.

Maybe this is the year the SoCon finally gets to the semifinals, probably not though.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Mercer beating WCU is not a quality win no matter how you try and spin it.

Maybe this is the year the SoCon finally gets to the semifinals, probably not though.


Doubt it!

[WileECoyote06]

My shot at it:

AQ-11: SDSU, Sacramento State, St Francis, Gardner-Webb, Holy Cross, Samford, EKU, Southeastern Louisiana, Davidson, Southeast Missouri St., William & Mary,

At-large: Montana State, North Dakota State, University of Incarnate Word, Weber State, Furman, New Hampshire, Richmond, Elon, UC-Davis, North Dakota, Tennessee-Martin, Fordham, Mercer

Last Four In: Mercer, North Dakota, Tennessee Martin, UC-Davis
First Four Out: Idaho, Delaware, Chattanooga, Montana
Next Four: Austin Peay, Florida A&M, Youngstown St, Rhode Island


UC-Davis @ North Dakota to #1 Sacramento State
Mercer @ Southeastern Louisiana to #8 Incarnate Word
Southeast Missouri @ UT-Martin to #4 North Dakota State
Davidson @ Elon to #5 Samford

Gardner Webb @ Furman to #2 South Dakota State
Saint Francis @ Richmond to #7 William and Mary
Eastern Kentucky @ Weber State to #3 Montana State
New Hampshire @Fordham to #6 Holy Cross

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Davis is not getting in at 6-5. No way this year.

[Sitting Bull]

My shot at it:

AQ-11: SDSU, Sacramento State, St Francis, Gardner-Webb, Holy Cross, Samford, EKU, Southeastern Louisiana, Davidson, Southeast Missouri St., William & Mary,

At-large: Montana State, North Dakota State, University of Incarnate Word, Weber State, Furman, New Hampshire, Richmond, Elon, UC-Davis, North Dakota, Tennessee-Martin, Fordham, Mercer

Last Four In: Mercer, North Dakota, Tennessee Martin, UC-Davis
First Four Out: Idaho, Delaware, Chattanooga, Montana
Next Four: Austin Peay, Florida A&M, Youngstown St, Rhode Island


UC-Davis @ North Dakota to #1 Sacramento State
Mercer @ Southeastern Louisiana to #8 Incarnate Word
Southeast Missouri @ UT-Martin to #4 North Dakota State
Davidson @ Elon to #5 Samford

Gardner Webb @ Furman to #2 South Dakota State
Saint Francis @ Richmond to #7 William and Mary
Eastern Kentucky @ Weber State to #3 Montana State
New Hampshire @Fordham to #6 Holy Cross

St Francis already played at Richmond and UR just played W&M. That would be a lazy bracket for a committee to set-up.

[WileECoyote06]

Davis is not getting in at 6-5. No way this year.

Maybe not. However, they've got a great resume; defeating both Idaho and Montana and playing three of the four potential seeds in tight games.

If they hadn't played SDSU, and played say Drake or Utah Tech they would be a lock at 7-4. I think the committee will reward them, despite the loss Saturday.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Maybe not. However, they've got a great resume; defeating both Idaho and Montana and playing three of the four potential seeds in tight games.

If they hadn't played SDSU, and played say Drake or Utah Tech they would be a lock at 7-4. I think the committee will reward them, despite the loss Saturday.


So you think "losing close" in 3/4 games to potential seeds trumps a overall record of 6-5?

Probably any other year I would say they have a good chance of getting in but there are too many teams at 7-4 to consider potentially above them.

[JSUSoutherner]

My stab at it:

The seeds:
1.) SDSU
2.) Sac State
3.) Montana State
4.) NDSU
5.) Samford
6.) W&M
7.) HC
8.) UIW

The field in no particular order:
[ ] GWeb
[ ] UNH
[ ] STFU
[ ] SEMO
[ ] EKU
[ ] Furman
[ ] UTC
[ ] Elon
[ ] Richmond
[ ] North Dakota
[ ] Weber
[ ] SELA
[ ] Fordham
[ ] FAMU
[ ] Idaho
[ ] Montana

[KPSUL]

Mercer has been severall inches away from winning in their key games all seaon. Looks like they need another season of sitting it out to gain the requisite maturity.

[WileECoyote06]

St Francis already played at Richmond and UR just played W&M. That would be a lazy bracket for a committee to set-up.

I missed Saint Francis and Richmond; but Richmond being paired with William & Mary can happen since it's a second round game.

But there aren't many matchups left that won't force another flight. xdontknowx

[WileECoyote06]

So you think "losing close" in 3/4 games to potential seeds trumps a overall record of 6-5?

Probably any other year I would say they have a good chance of getting in but there are too many teams at 7-4 to consider potentially above them.

The committee has claimed in the past to look closely at performance against other playoff caliber teams.

If they are the 'last team' in, then their resume would have been compared to the first four teams out which in my prediction are Idaho (who they beat); Montana (who they beat); Delaware and UT-Chattanooga. Both UT-Chattanooga and Delaware have one win against a playoff caliber team; Mercer and Rhode Island respectively. UC-Davis has two.

Mercer only gets the nod over UT-Chattanooga, IMO, because they have a win over a conference champion.

[crusader11]

Just for *****s and giggles, here's my go:

Bracket:

SEMO @ Chattanooga to #1 Sacramento State
Gardner Webb @ Richmond to #8 Incarnate Word
North Dakota @ Weber State to #4 NDSU
EKU @ SE LA to #5 Samford

Davidson @ Elon to #2 South Dakota State
Fordham @ UNH to #7 Holy Cross
Saint Francis @ Delaware to #3 Montana State
UC Davis @ Furman to #6 William & Mary

[Catbooster]

The committee has claimed in the past to look closely at performance against other playoff caliber teams.

If they are the 'last team' in, then their resume would have been compared to the first four teams out which in my prediction are Idaho (who they beat); Montana (who they beat); Delaware and UT-Chattanooga. Both UT-Chattanooga and Delaware have one win against a playoff caliber team; Mercer and Rhode Island respectively. UC-Davis has two.

Mercer only gets the nod over UT-Chattanooga, IMO, because they have a win over a conference champion.
I would love to see UC Davis in the playoffs. I think they would beat most (all?) the other bubble teams - they've already beaten a couple. But I doubt the committee will bypass all the teams with better win/loss records to pick them up at 6-5 despite Davis having a better SOS. Which sends the message to avoid making your schedule too tough.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer beating WCU is not a quality win no matter how you try and spin it.
FUBeAR is assuming you are literate…right?

Which has more “quality?”
A) a 49-6 WIN over Team X
B) a 32-29 LOSS to Team X

Again, assuming literacy, FUBeAR is confident you will select Option A.

If so, then you are in complete agreement with FUBeAR’s “spin” in the post you chose to quote/comment upon.

Wouldn’t it have just been easier to type, “Agree 100% FUBeAR!”

[cmt]

UCD fan here so I'll get that out of the way first. I don't know if UCD should get in because I admittedly don't follow FCS that closely outside of the Big Sky.

So ignoring playoff participation, I don't understand how anyone would rank Montana ahead of UCD.

Montana went 7-4 against FCS. Lost to top-3 in conf plus Idaho. Didn't beat any winning teams. Trailed by 41 points in a game.
Idaho went 7-2 against FCS. Lost to Sac but missed Weber/Mont St. Beat Montana at Montana. Never trailed by 41 points in a game.
UCD went 6-4 against FCS. Lost to top-3 in conf plus a top-2 playoff seed. Beat Idaho at Idaho. Never trailed by 41 points in a game.

If you're comparing UCD vs. Montana... both lost close to Sac, both lost close to Weber. Montana lost to MSt by 34, UCD lost by 17. Montana lost at home to Idaho. UCD beat Idaho on the road by 18.

If you're comparing UCD vs. Idaho... both lost close to Sac. Idaho lost two FBS games. UCD lost an FBS game, 2 games to the top-2 seeds and another game Weber who probably just missed the seeds. UCD also won at Idaho by 18.

All three teams beat the objectively worse teams on their schedules.

There's basically nothing in their resume's that you can point to that would make you rank either of those other teams above UCD. UCD performed better against the good common opponents than Montana did. UCD played a tougher schedule than Idaho did, performed the same against the one common good opponent. Oh, and UCD beat them handily at their place. I would understand if Montana/Idaho were 2 games better than UCD in record, but it's only 1 game. We can look past the record and do a little more analysis than that.

If I'm taking 4 Big Sky teams, UCD is in. If I'm taking 5 Big Sky teams, UCD and Idaho are in. If you want to argue that the Big Sky only deserves 3 teams, that's fine. I've got no counter to that.

[cmt]

I think UC Davis is out and that's a shame. In the running for best team in history left out. Has anybody ever played three top 4 seeds before? Just 16 combined points would give them wins over SDSU, Weber, and Sac St and a top 2 seed.

Yes it has happened before.

In 2019 UC Davis played:
1. North Dakota St
3. Weber St
4. Sacramento St

And for good measure they also played
5. Montana St
6. Montana

As well as an 8-5 Cal team.