Magic Numbers

[Khan4Cats]

Tried to do a breakdown of each conferences auto-bid possibilities:

Gateway:
Magic Number=1: Northern Iowa -Can clinch Gateway with a win at Missouri State or over Indiana State at home in two weeks, regardless of what SIU or WIU do.

Longshot: Either SIU or WIU win last two games (they play each other this week) and UNI loses its last two GFC games.

Ohio Valley:
Magic Number=1: Eastern Kentucky- has bye week this week but can clinch with win in either of last two games at Austin Peay or at home to Tenn Tech

Longshot: Eastern Illinois or Jacksonville State could win out (they play each other 11/10) and have EKU lose last two.

Hail Mary: Austin Peay-win last three (including over EKU 11/10), have EIU lose last two, EKU lose in last week to Tenn Tech and Jacksonville State lose to Samford and SEMO while beating EIU.

Patriot:
Magic Number=2: Fordham, can clinch with win over Holy Cross this week
Magic Number=4: Holy Cross, takes lead with win over Fordham this week, but still has to beat Colgate in last week for auto before tie-breakers.

Longshot: Colgate- must run table and hope for Holy Cross win over Fordham and then lose to Lafayette 11/10 and Fordham loss to Bucknell 11/17 to win outright. Can tie by running table and Holy Cross topping Fordham.

Southland:
Magic Number=1: McNeese State, can clinch with win in any of last three SLC games

Hail Mary x3: Nicholls State, Sam Houston State, or Texas State can win outright title if any of them win out and McNeese State loses out.

Big Sky:
Magic Number=2: Montana, can clinch auto with any one win and Montana State loss.

Longshot A: Montana State- can claim auto-bid by winning out and Montana and Eastern Washington each lose one more.

Longshot B: Eastern Washington- can claim auto-bid if they win out, Montana loses out, and Montana State loses one more.

Hail Mary: Northern Arizona- can claim auto-bid if they win last two (over Montana State and Eastern Washington) and Montana loses last three.

Wing and a slim prayer?: Portland State: not sure how a tiebreaker would work, but could still tie for a title if they win out, Montana loses out, and the winner of EWU-NAU on 11/10 loses one other game.

MEAC:
Magic Number=2: Delaware State-clinch auto bid with win over Norfolk State 11/10 or NSU loss to Morgan State this week and DSU win over Howard 11/17
Magic Number=3: Norfolk State clinch auto bid with win over DSU on 11/10 and win over Morgan State this week or DSU loss to Howard 11/17.

Someone else will have to unravel the Southern and CAA playoff picture, still far too cloudy for me to want to delve into.

[skinny_uncle]

Indiana State has a twelve game losing streak. UNI pretty much has the Gateway sewn up.

[ElonPride]

Looks like you let out a couple conferences.

[OL FU]

I am going to stick my nose out there to be knocked off.

Patriot, I will be shocked if more than the autobid gets in. Fordhams losses have been bad onesxnodx (from a playoff perspective). If Holy Cross beats Fordham, Fordham is out. If Fordham beats HC, HC might get a bid but I doubt it.

MEAC gets one. It would not be the first time that a 9-2 MEAC teams stays at home due to weak OOC scheduling. xnodx

[URMite]

Looks like you let out a couple conferences.

What he said...

Actually I was going to comment that you don't have enough room for the CAA or SoCon possibilities...xlolx

[Khan4Cats]

Looks like you let out a couple conferences.




Someone else will have to unravel the Southern and CAA playoff picture, still far too cloudy for me to want to delve into.


What he said...

Actually I was going to comment that you don't have enough room for the CAA or SoCon possibilities...xlolx

That would be why i put that last line in. Figured The CAA and SoCon races need their own threads due to the variety of possibilities.

[URMite]

That would be why i put that last line in. Figured The CAA and SoCon races need their own threads due to the variety of possibilities.

Oops missed that. I thought it was part of the MEAC Analysis, which I already had a handle on.

[OhioHen]

Someone else will have to unravel the Southern and CAA playoff picture, still far too cloudy for me to want to delve into.

CAA - Magic number = 3 for UMass. If the Minutemen win out, they are the outright champions.

Any other scenario is far too complicated to talk about with three games remaining for each team. We MIGHT be able to figure out some scenarios next week, but it will likely come down to November 17 results to determine the champion.

At least 7 schools have a mathematical chance at finishing no worse than tied for first. William & Mary might make that number 8, but I don't have the time to figure out all the things that would need to happen for them to get into the mix.

[appfan2008]

southern conference is a little easier than the caa as there are only 5 teams that still have a shot at the autobid... but being that i have a class to go to right now and have way to much homework to do... i figure it would not be a good use of my time to figure it all out

[TexasTerror]

Southland:
Magic Number=1: McNeese State, can clinch with win in any of last three SLC games

Hail Mary x3: Nicholls State, Sam Houston State, or Texas State can win outright title if any of them win out and McNeese State loses out.

Yes, auto-bid, your correct, but wanted to mention that Central Arkansas is eligible for the SLC title at 4-1, not the auto-bid obviously. UCA and McNeese could be heading for a final week showdown for the SLC title.

[Khan4Cats]

Yes, auto-bid, your correct, but wanted to mention that Central Arkansas is eligible for the SLC title at 4-1, not the auto-bid obviously. UCA and McNeese could be heading for a final week showdown for the SLC title.

Didn't mean to downplay UCA and their chance at a title. I was assuming if they tie McNeese by beating them 10/17, that McNeese still gets the auto-bid.

When are they eligible? Is it next year, same as the XDSU's? They look to add some punch to the Southland, which has seemed down the last couple of years.