AGS Crazy 8’s Survival League - Week 12, Fall 2022

[Preferred Walk-On]

Well, here it is...Week 12. The standings have been updated, and the form for this week's picks is available at the link below. Please note the EARLY deadline of Thu, Nov 17. We have six players without an elimination week, five of which are within four correct picks of the leader. Therefore, tiebreakers will be in play, as this game ends with the regular season.

This season has been interesting, and what I have learned from this is that the FCS knowledge of members of this forum is so good, that even having to pick 75% of the teams over the course of the season while achieving >60% correct each week, while challenging, is still not quite enough to avoid the tiebreaker. I have also learned that I will need to re-examine the tiebreaker system to make it so that players with one elimination week are still in it at the end. I have internally debated this both ways (point of game is not to be eliminated vs. point of double elimination is to compensate for a missed/poor week).

Thank you to all that played this year, and I hope it was challenging, but also enjoyable. Any comments or suggestions are always appreciated.

MAKE WEEK 12 SURVIVAL PICKS HERE
(https://forms.gle/beAtcL46Bb2YFhjM9)Deadline: Thu, Nov 17 @ 7 PM ET

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This week's matchups:

Thu, Nov 17
Southeastern Louisiana @ Nicholls

Sat, Nov 19
Stony Brook @ Monmouth
Wagner @ Duquesne
The Citadel @ Virginia Military Institute
Florida A&M vs. Bethune-Cookman (in Orlando, FL)
Wofford @ Furman
Howard @ Morgan State
St. Thomas @ Butler
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart
Saint Francis @ Merrimack
New Hampshire @ Maine
East Tennessee State @ Mississippi State
William & Mary @ Richmond
Bryant @ Robert Morris
Austin Peay @ Alabama
Yale @ Harvard
Southern Illinois @ Youngstown State
Holy Cross @ Georgetown
Lehigh @ Lafayette
Western Illinois @ Illinois State
Missouri State @ Indiana State
Presbyterian @ Stetson
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina
Colgate @ Fordham
Pennsylvania @ Princeton
Cornell @ Columbia
Southern Utah @ Sam Houston
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill
Albany @ Rhode Island
Hampton @ Towson
Delaware @ Villanova
Drake @ Valparaiso
Marist @ Bucknell
Dayton @ Davidson
San Diego @ Morehead State
Mercer @ Samford
Brown @ Dartmouth
North Carolina A&T @ Gardner-Webb
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State
Northern Iowa @ South Dakota
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State
Murray State @ Southeast Missouri State
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State
North Alabama @ Memphis
Montana @ Montana State
Campbell @ Delaware State
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M
North Carolina Central @ Tennessee Tech
Jackson State @ Alcorn State
Houston Christian @ Tarleton State
Kennesaw State @ Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee State @ Texas A&M-Commerce
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee-Martin
Weber State @ Northern Arizona
Idaho @ Idaho State
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian
Utah Tech @ Brigham Young
North Dakota @ North Dakota State
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington
UC Davis @ Sac State
Jacksonville State @ Central Arkansas
Portland State @ Cal Poly
Lamar @ McNeese

[KPSUL]

Picks in for the season

[taper]

As you're trying to find teams for this week, remember that 2024 is a 12 game season. Could be worse.

[Chalupa Batman]

Very smart strategizing by PWO to save such a strong team in South Dakota State for the final week! [emoji2]

[taper]

Very smart strategizing by PWO to save such a strong team in South Dakota State for the final week! [emoji2]
I chose SDSU as my potential reuse last week. Was that worse?

[Chalupa Batman]

I chose SDSU as my potential reuse last week. Was that worse?

I missed that. Equally as smart, gotta keep those gimmes in your back pocket. [emoji106]

[MTfan4life]

Damn that ETSU, I really needed that two point cushion!! Plus, it would have been very helpful to have Holy Cross carry over to this week.

Edit: Just now realizing Alabama State's game with UAPB is not until next week! What the heck, man. xnonono2x

[Preferred Walk-On]

Very smart strategizing by PWO to save such a strong team in South Dakota State for the final week! [emoji2]


Damn that ETSU, I really needed that two point cushion!! Plus, it would have been very helpful to have Holy Cross carry over to this week.

Edit: Just now realizing Alabama State's game with UAPB is not until next week! What the heck, man. xnonono2x

One simply cannot fathom the depth and complexity of my Week1-11 picks towards executing my Week 12 strategy, as I decided to do not one, but both of these options. ;)

Unfortunately, I also cannot fathom my strategy.

[MSUBobcat]

In, even though I was eliminated in Week 4 by a Thursday game. I had already basically planned my picks before realizing I had no chance.

[POD Knows]

In but done, put a fork in me

[crusader11]

In...best of luck, MTFan.

[Preferred Walk-On]

In, even though I was eliminated in Week 4 by a Thursday game. I had already basically planned my picks before realizing I had no chance.

I appreciate you continuing to play, and honestly, you were only really out of it just this past week (when it was determined that some players would go into Week 12 without having an elimination week).

That said, I am thinking of a tie-breaker next year that involves a combination platter of elimination sum added with # correct. That way, you are not penalized for having one week elimination vs. none; rather, the week number of the elimination could factor in somehow.

For example, perhaps it is a 12 week season, and you had your only elimination week in Week 4. If we used a system where there was say a 0.33 pt deduction (could be larger or smaller, have to think about it more) for each remaining week, you would now just lose 2.66 pt (a minimal reduction for the remaining 8 weeks) that would still allow one to be in it until the end, even if other players did not have an elimination week. I feel like there has to be a small penalty beyond just missing the picks, as the advantage gained is having 8 more teams at your disposal (if you missed the week completely) or simply having a small reduction to at least denote the inability to achieve 60% for the week. Still thinking this through, but again, thanks for playing, and I am curious to see where you end up.

[OhioHen]

In.

[MTfan4life]

I appreciate you continuing to play, and honestly, you were only really out of it just this past week (when it was determined that some players would go into Week 12 without having an elimination week).

That said, I am thinking of a tie-breaker next year that involves a combination platter of elimination sum added with # correct. That way, you are not penalized for having one week elimination vs. none; rather, the week number of the elimination could factor in somehow.

For example, perhaps it is a 12 week season, and you had your only elimination week in Week 4. If we used a system where there was say a 0.33 pt deduction (could be larger or smaller, have to think about it more) for each remaining week, you would now just lose 2.66 pt (a minimal reduction for the remaining 8 weeks) that would still allow one to be in it until the end, even if other players did not have an elimination week. I feel like there has to be a small penalty beyond just missing the picks, as the advantage gained is having 8 more teams at your disposal (if you missed the week completely) or simply having a small reduction to at least denote the inability to achieve 60% for the week. Still thinking this through, but again, thanks for playing, and I am curious to see where you end up.

I would recommend just having the deadline be Saturday. If someone picks a Thursday or Friday team after the fact, that pick is simply defaulted automatically, regardless of if that team won or not.

[taper]

I appreciate you continuing to play, and honestly, you were only really out of it just this past week (when it was determined that some players would go into Week 12 without having an elimination week).

That said, I am thinking of a tie-breaker next year that involves a combination platter of elimination sum added with # correct. That way, you are not penalized for having one week elimination vs. none; rather, the week number of the elimination could factor in somehow.

For example, perhaps it is a 12 week season, and you had your only elimination week in Week 4. If we used a system where there was say a 0.33 pt deduction (could be larger or smaller, have to think about it more) for each remaining week, you would now just lose 2.66 pt (a minimal reduction for the remaining 8 weeks) that would still allow one to be in it until the end, even if other players did not have an elimination week. I feel like there has to be a small penalty beyond just missing the picks, as the advantage gained is having 8 more teams at your disposal (if you missed the week completely) or simply having a small reduction to at least denote the inability to achieve 60% for the week. Still thinking this through, but again, thanks for playing, and I am curious to see where you end up.
I like simple rules where it's easy to see where you are in the standings. What if your first elimination week results in 0 points instead of however many you did get right? 2nd elimination still ends it.

[KPSUL]

I appreciate you continuing to play, and honestly, you were only really out of it just this past week (when it was determined that some players would go into Week 12 without having an elimination week).

That said, I am thinking of a tie-breaker next year that involves a combination platter of elimination sum added with # correct. That way, you are not penalized for having one week elimination vs. none; rather, the week number of the elimination could factor in somehow.

For example, perhaps it is a 12 week season, and you had your only elimination week in Week 4. If we used a system where there was say a 0.33 pt deduction (could be larger or smaller, have to think about it more) for each remaining week, you would now just lose 2.66 pt (a minimal reduction for the remaining 8 weeks) that would still allow one to be in it until the end, even if other players did not have an elimination week. I feel like there has to be a small penalty beyond just missing the picks, as the advantage gained is having 8 more teams at your disposal (if you missed the week completely) or simply having a small reduction to at least denote the inability to achieve 60% for the week. Still thinking this through, but again, thanks for playing, and I am curious to see where you end up.

Just to clarify.....
Aren't the number of eliminations, and the 1st elimination week, used as tie-breakers? In other words, if player 1 has the most number of selected winners but one elimination and player 2 has one less selected winner but no elimination, WHO WINS?

[MTfan4life]

In...best of luck, MTFan.


https://youtu.be/gCzHrRZeUrQ

[MR. CHICKEN]

Just to clarify.....
Aren't the number of eliminations, and the 1st elimination week, used as tie-breakers? In other words, if player 1 has the most number of selected winners but one elimination and player 2 has one less selected winner but no elimination, WHO WINS?


FROM RULES!

8. The player(s) that survives the most weeks wins. However, for tie-breaking purposes, the following criteria (beyond how many weeks survived) will be used in this order: (a) combined number of weeks for eliminations, (b) number of correct picks, (c) number of times having a perfect week, and (d) least number of times reusing a team during the season.

# OF CORRECT PICKS.......IS SECOND TIE-BREAKER...........BRAWK!

[Chalupa Batman]

When do the week 12 picks get unhidden so we know who we have to cheer for/against?

[Preferred Walk-On]

When do the week 12 picks get unhidden so we know who we have to cheer for/against?

Right now. ;)

[Preferred Walk-On]

I would recommend just having the deadline be Saturday. If someone picks a Thursday or Friday team after the fact, that pick is simply defaulted automatically, regardless of if that team won or not.

Do you recommend this be done for the first two weeks of the season? That has always been my dilemma.

I would be perfectly OK with this, but I either want the games included for all or not included for all. It is actually a time management thing for me, as having to go through each and everybody's sheet to make sure they did not pick a team after the deadline or to have to monitor the form each night (Fri/Sat) to remove them as choices for those that have not yet picked are just not feasible for me.

I am going to try something to potentially automate this "checking", and if I can get that to work, I will simply set an 11 AM CT deadline on Sat (prior to the 1st game of the day) and simply have the sheet tell me which picks might be invalid from Thu/Fri evenings. We'll see how it goes.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I like simple rules where it's easy to see where you are in the standings. What if your first elimination week results in 0 points instead of however many you did get right? 2nd elimination still ends it.

This is not a half bad idea, and I'll take it under serious consideration. I prefer simple as well; however, making it too simple can be vague and open to interpretation (making some unhappy), while making it too strict can be inhibitory to play (making some unhappy). I am not in the business of making sure everyone is happy, but I want this to be challenging and fun in the hopes of getting even more to play (and continue even with a setback).

It is an elimination game, so it cannot simply be on # correct alone, as we already have a game for that, but at the same time I don't want someone that just missed the threshold to simply chuck their hands in the air and think there is no use in continuing to play. I'm continually trying to find that balance, and I appreciate the suggestion.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Just to clarify.....
Aren't the number of eliminations, and the 1st elimination week, used as tie-breakers? In other words, if player 1 has the most number of selected winners but one elimination and player 2 has one less selected winner but no elimination, WHO WINS?

As MR. CHICKEN posted, it is going to end up being # correct from the players without an elimination week...at least this year. This is due to how the rules were written at the beginning of the season, and I will stick to them. That said, I think this needs some revision and am happy to hear suggestions.

So to answer your question directly, in the scenario you presented, player 2 is going to win...again, at least this year. As mentioned in another post, trying to come up with a balance, as this is a survival game, not a simple pick game, but I definitely do appreciate the scenario you proposed and will try to find a way to address this a bit differently.

[MTfan4life]

EWash's win seals it for me! Good battle crusader11! And everybody else! Yes, I'm biased considering I was fortunate enough to win, but I really like this format!

I'd be curious to see a breakdown of the best team each person didn't use all season! Mine is probably Eastern Kentucky.

[MR. CHICKEN]

IDAHO​.........BRAWK!

[OhioHen]

Gardner-Webb for 4th place

[KPSUL]

Idaho is the only playoff selected team I never picked.

The team I picked most frequently to lose was Presbyterian.

[Libertine]

The team I picked most frequently to lose was Presbyterian.

Solid strategy.

[MSUBobcat]

EWash's win seals it for me! Good battle crusader11! And everybody else! Yes, I'm biased considering I was fortunate enough to win, but I really like this format!

I'd be curious to see a breakdown of the best team each person didn't use all season! Mine is probably Eastern Kentucky.

Mine would be Chatty or ACU, both of which finished 7-4, but didn't make the playoff cut. I did save a lot of the better teams for the end, which is why I went perfect the last 2 weeks of the season (also had the most perfect weeks at 5). Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Sunk by a Thursday game early in the year and didn't realize it eliminated me.