Playoff Prognostications - Into Week Ten

[TexasTerror]

Dropped MEAC from having multiple bids thanks to Norfolk St's loss and dropped Montana St following the loss this week. SLC will no longer get multiple bids.

Finding regional games are tough. Delaware St at Delaware is easy enough. Fordham going to UMass works and I think EKU to McNeese. The rest was trying to avoid CAA matchups in the first round!

Autos:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: UMass
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Delaware St
OVC: EKU
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon
SLC: McNeese

At-Large:
CAA: James Madison, Delaware, New Hampshire, Richmond
Gateway: S Illinois
Southern: Wofford, Georgia Southern, Appalachian St


Wofford @ UNI (1)
James Madison @ Appalachian St

Fordham @ UMass (4)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Richmond @ Montana (3)
Elon @ New Hampshire

Southern Illinois @ Georgia Southern
Eastern Kentucky @ McNeese St (2)

[WrenFGun]

I agree almost wholeheartedly with this playoff structure. I don't think I would give four teams to the SoCon, but only because I suspect Georgia Southern will likely lose to potentially Colorado State and another team on their schedule. I find it hard to believe 5 CAA teams aren't getting in right now. Montana State doomed themselves with their last loss.

After looking further though, it's hard not to have Ga. Southern in the field right now. I think Western Illinois, Eastern Washington (lousy loss to PSU, though), Eastern Illinois (no bad losses, somewhat lousy conference), Jacksonville State and Holy Cross might all warrant some consideration, but the former two or three might get knocked out just with some tough remaining games.

I don't see any of these teams getting in over an 8-3 CAA squad in that list. Hofstra on the other hand..eh.

[skinny_uncle]

I agree almost wholeheartedly with this playoff structure. I don't think I would give four teams to the SoCon, but only because I suspect Georgia Southern will likely lose to potentially Colorado State and another team on their schedule. I find it hard to believe 5 CAA teams aren't getting in right now. Montana State doomed themselves with their last loss.

After looking further though, it's hard not to have Ga. Southern in the field right now. I think Western Illinois, Eastern Washington (lousy loss to PSU, though), Eastern Illinois (no bad losses, somewhat lousy conference), Jacksonville State and Holy Cross might all warrant some consideration, but the former two or three might get knocked out just with some tough remaining games.

I don't see any of these teams getting in over an 8-3 CAA squad in that list. Hofstra on the other hand..eh.
Western Illinois would have to win out to make it. Their matchup with SIU next week should be interesting.

[Black and Gold Express]

The only thing I disagree with is sending the SoCon champ on the road to UNH where they don't draw flies. Elon isn't much better, but I am pretty sure they'd bid the needed amount and 4/5 of the CAA teams won't be hosting (assuming 5 get in).

[Cincy App]

TT, I would agree that you have listed the 8 most deserving at-large teams at this stage of the season. However, I really doubt that 2 conferences will receive 7 of the 8 at-large bids.

I would also replace Fordham with Holy Cross as I believe HC will win that upcoming battle. The winner of the Eastern Illinois and Jax State game will make an interesting case if they win out. I'm not saying they would be deserving but a 2nd OVC team might be more politically correct over a 4th SoCon or 5th CAA team.

[WrenFGun]

UNH draws plenty of fans. They'll draw 11-13k for a playoff game. Whether they'll outbid anyone, of course, is another question.

[WrenFGun]

I also tend to agree that a second OVC team might be more deserving than a flawed 8-3 team (Richmond, with a loss to Towson, for example..)

[BestOfBreed]

Your at-large and conference champs look about right to me. I wouldn't be surprised if Wofford gets in that they aren't sent to McNeese St.

[siugrad99]

CAA will not get 5 teams, A 10-1 SIU team will not go on the road for the 1st round.

[WrenFGun]

SIU..tell me some teams that deserve it over those 5 CAA teams...Other than the ones I've listed. I've tried to find some, and none have nearly the level of resume as any of those five. OOC or otherwise.

[UNHWildCats]

Of the 4 OVC teams that can still get an atlarge bid 3 of them already have 3 losses... those three teams could all easily end up with atleast 4 losses If all three end with 4 losses I dont think any of them would take a spot from CAA or SoCon teams.

McNeese is likely the only team that could realistically still lose an autobid in a conference that likely would only get 1 bid causing a second team from that conference getting in, and I dont think McNeese will lose the autobid.

[bigskyrocks]

ok so laugh at my picks all you want. this is just what i would do if the season plays out like i have predicted. Ok so Central Arkansas beats McNeese dropping them out of a seed and The citidal wins out giving them my last at large bid im not sure on bids or what not so i just judged my home teams on previous blogs of predictions. fell free to critisize

Autos:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: UMass
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Delaware St
OVC: EKU
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Wofford
SLC: Mcneese

At-Large:
CAA: James Madison, Delaware, New Hampshire, Richmond
Gateway: S Illinois
Southern: Elon, Appalachian St, The citidal


Eastern Kentucky @ UNI (1)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Wofford @ Southern Illinois(4)
James Madison @ Appalachian St

McNeese St @ Montana (2)
The Citidal @ Richmond

Fordham @ UMass (3)
Elon @ New Hampshire


just for fun if things were to play out somehow my first round winners would be
UNI Delaware Wofford james madison Montana Richmond Umass and Elon

[siugrad99]

with 3 weeks left in the regular season 1 of those teams is bound to drop off the list. I remember not to long ago everyone crying because the Gateway thought they should get 4 maybe 5. I just can't see 1 conference getting 5 teams.

[bigskyrocks]

one may drop off but who is going to replace them, i can think of maybe albany, or georgia southern but i have them losing also so who else is worthy, maybe a big sky team like ewu if they can win out or maybe montana state if they can win out i just cant see many teams filling in. i could be missing someone tho feel free to fill me in

[ekufbfan]

what an insult...you predict EKU (probably will be the auto bid) sent to the No 1 seed, while Elon (what have they ever done) and (perhaps an at-large invite to both) The Citadel gets games against teams not seeded in the top 4? I realize the OVC hasn't shown up in the last ten years, but Elon? I know they are in the So Conf, however EKU owns a win over So Conf WCU this year, and Samford will be in there next year too... let's see how many times has Samford beat EKU (we have played 9 times, SU has won 1 game!)..... EKU's two L's are to Kentucky and wku...sorry, I just don't see this one! xeyebrowx

[gophoenix]

what an insult...you predict EKU (probably will be the auto bid) sent to the No 1 seed, while Elon (what have they ever done) and (perhaps an at-large invite to both) The Citadel gets games against teams not seeded in the top 4? I realize the OVC hasn't shown up in the last ten years, but Elon? I know they are in the So Conf, however EKU owns a win over So Conf WCU this year, and Samford will be in there next year too... let's see how many times has Samford beat EKU (we have played 9 times, SU has won 1 game!)..... EKU's two L's are to Kentucky and wku...sorry, I just don't see this one! xeyebrowx

Oh, by "what have they ever done" you are meaning what have they ever done in I-AA outside this season?

What has Eastern Kentucky done? Your schedule basically says, well, nothing.

[TexasTerror]

ok so laugh at my picks all you want. this is just what i would do if the season plays out like i have predicted. Ok so Central Arkansas beats McNeese dropping them out of a seed and The citidal wins out giving them my last at large bid im not sure on bids or what not so i just judged my home teams on previous blogs of predictions. fell free to critisize

If McNeese falls out of seeds, I still expect they'd get a home game. There's no question there...definitely would not be going to Montana, though probably would in QFs...especially at 10-1, McNeese does not hit the road...

[Sam Adams]

If McNeese falls out of seeds, I still expect they'd get a home game. There's no question there...definitely would not be going to Montana, though probably would in QFs...especially at 10-1, McNeese does not hit the road...

Its happened before ... 10-1 is no guarantee of a home game. xcoffeex

[TexasTerror]

Its happened before ... 10-1 is no guarantee of a home game. xcoffeex

Doubt the NCAA would miss out on the bid that McNeese makes...xrulesx

[blukeys]

what an insult...you predict EKU (probably will be the auto bid) sent to the No 1 seed, while Elon (what have they ever done) and (perhaps an at-large invite to both) The Citadel gets games against teams not seeded in the top 4? I realize the OVC hasn't shown up in the last ten years, but Elon? I know they are in the So Conf, however EKU owns a win over So Conf WCU this year, and Samford will be in there next year too... let's see how many times has Samford beat EKU (we have played 9 times, SU has won 1 game!)..... EKU's two L's are to Kentucky and wku...sorry, I just don't see this one! xeyebrowx

Not sure why you believe EKU should be immune from going to UNI. First the NCAA, tries to match teams that are geographically close to cut down on travel expenses. It seems bigskyrocks also tries to do this. Second, the OVC entry usually plays a Gateway team. This helps the Gateway's overall playoff record.;) Third, If you are going to be the champion you are going to have to play the best team sometime. Lastly, Your team is currently ranked 18th in the AGS Poll. How does that make them so special that they can't go to UNI???

[proasu89]

what an insult...you predict EKU (probably will be the auto bid) sent to the No 1 seed, while Elon (what have they ever done) and (perhaps an at-large invite to both) The Citadel gets games against teams not seeded in the top 4? I realize the OVC hasn't shown up in the last ten years, but Elon? I know they are in the So Conf, however EKU owns a win over So Conf WCU this year, and Samford will be in there next year too... let's see how many times has Samford beat EKU (we have played 9 times, SU has won 1 game!)..... EKU's two L's are to Kentucky and wku...sorry, I just don't see this one! xeyebrowx

xeyebrowx Every conference has a last place team. Are you sure you want to hang your hat on that one?

[CCU97]

UNH draws plenty of fans. They'll draw 11-13k for a playoff game. Whether they'll outbid anyone, of course, is another question.


11-13k fans is plenty....our little 5th year program in Myrtle Beach can draw that many for a playoff game....Playoffs should have 20-30k fans at the game.....

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

We went to Hampton last year to play in front of 3401.

[CCU97]

Then that just sucks and both teams should be stripped of playoff rights....lol.....I mean damn you guys couldn't find 4000 students and a few buses to raid Hampton? and they had that low of support?

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

with 3 weeks left in the regular season 1 of those teams is bound to drop off the list. I remember not to long ago everyone crying because the Gateway thought they should get 4 maybe 5. I just can't see 1 conference getting 5 teams.

There are still a lot tough conference matchups left before putting 5 CAA teams in the field. At this point, I would agree that all five of these teams should be in. (UMASS/UNH/UD/UR/JMU) I don't want to rely on the committee to get my team in the field.

Excluding UMASS, if the remaining 4 teams finish with 2 conference losses or less.......what happens?

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

There are still a lot tough conference matchups left before putting 5 CAA teams in the field. At this point, I would agree that all five of these teams should be in. (UMASS/UNH/UD/UR/JMU) I don't want to rely on the committee to get my team in the field.

If all 5 finish with just 2 conference losses.......what happens?

I don't see UMass ending with 2 conference losses.
Not playing UD UR and JMU helped them big time this year.
I hate unbalanced conference schedules.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

11-13k fans is plenty....our little 5th year program in Myrtle Beach can draw that many for a playoff game....Playoffs should have 20-30k fans at the game.....

And we could draw more than that too, but don't you think 11-13K is impressive in a 7.5K facility? Especially one that doesn't have the nice hills for expanded seating like at Georgia Southern and App State. After 2-3K the standing locations get pretty crappy at Cowell.

You're kidding yourself if you think that all games within the FCS Playoffs could be played in front of 20-30K fans. Are there eight schools that participate in the playoffs that are capable of drawing and seat/stand that many fans? If so, it would then take an almost perfect storm scenario for them to actually make the playoffs in the same season.

The UMass-UNH playoff game last year in Amherst was sold out at 17K and definitely could have sold more tickets, but the UMass stadium doesn't have the standing room to allow over capacity attendance. I bet there are many other mid teen capacity venues in FCS in the same boat. How many can even hold over 20K?

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

I don't see UMass ending with 2 conference losses.
Not playing UD UR and JMU helped them big time this year.
I hate unbalanced conference schedules.

I did an edit on my post.......excluding UMASS with 2 conf losses.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Then that just sucks and both teams should be stripped of playoff rights....lol.....I mean damn you guys couldn't find 4000 students and a few buses to raid Hampton? and they had that low of support?

The last I checked, playoff "rights" were based on the play on the gridiron not one's facilities or attendance.

I was there that day and I was surprised when I read that attendance figure. Definitely another case of underreporting in the playoffs. I mean Hampton's band was almost as large as those attendance figures!! :p xbowx

According to Mapquest, it is over 600 miles and over 11 hours from Durham to Hampton. No, on Thanksgiving weekend we couldn't find 4K to bus that far. There are very few FCS schools with fan bases that could bring that many people on a trek through the Northeast Corridor on Thanksgiving weekend. I seriously doubt that Coastal Carolina could achieve that.

I have a good memory and will be waiting for the day when Coastal has a Thanksgiving Weekend playoff game at Hofstra, Fordham, Lehigh or Lafayette to see if you can bring 4K on buses on a similar trek to one of those venues. I will be glad to eat crow that day......grilled with a nice dry rub please! :p :D

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

UNH draws plenty of fans. They'll draw 11-13k for a playoff game. Whether they'll outbid anyone, of course, is another question.

Assuming UNH does get a bid, I tend to think that UNH Athl Dir Marty Scarano will do everything he can to get one more home game for Santos' deserved farewell tour. I also think that UNH fans will come out in droves for one more last chance to bid adieu in Durham to the Legend of Santos, ....

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

There are still a lot tough conference matchups left before putting 5 CAA teams in the field. At this point, I would agree that all five of these teams should be in. (UMASS/UNH/UD/UR/JMU) I don't want to rely on the committee to get my team in the field.

Excluding UMASS, if the remaining 4 teams finish with 2 conference losses or less.......what happens?

To review my team out of that mix, only two losses in the league would mean that we beat UMass. UNH would then be 9-2 with wins over Delaware and UMass as well as a FBS win. I'd have to say that UNH would be an absolute lock for a playoff bid.

If Delaware gets a second CAA loss, they'd also be 9-2 with an FBS win. They're also a lock for the playoffs. Even with a third league loss, Delaware (and UNH) will present a very solid resume to the committee.

If Richmond and JMU finish with two CAA losses, they'd be 8-3 with a FBS loss, correct? How many teams from other conferences will gets bids over those resumes? Would there be enough 8-3 or better qualifying teams to even be compared to them?

If all four of these teams end up with just two conference losses, then "woffing" one of them will be extremely difficult. Lots of games to be played yet so there is hardly a guarantee that five teams will finish with two or fewer league losses.

[WIUFan]

Western Illinois would have to win out to make it. Their matchup with SIU next week should be interesting.

WIU will go at 8-3 _if_ they win out against SIU and Youngstown. Its a tall order, but its possible. Next weekends "battle for second place in the Gateway" should be a lot of fun. SIU will go to the playoffs regardless of what happens next Saturday. WIU is already in a playoff situation, and the rest of the Gateway is already eliminated.

I'm already looking forward to next weekend...

[JMU Duke Dog]

xreadx Here goes nothing...


Automatic Qualifiers:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Massachusetts
Gateway: Northern Iowa
MEAC: Delaware State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids:
CAA: Delaware, Richmond, James Madison, New Hampshire
Gateway: Southern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Wofford, Appalachian State

*With my predicted finishing records below.

Pairings:
Holy Cross (8-3) at #1 Northern Iowa (11-0)
Richmond (8-3) at Elon (9-2)

Fordham (9-2) at #4 Massachusetts (10-1)
Delaware State (9-2) at Delaware (10-1)

New Hampshire (8-3) at #3 Montana (11-0)
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) at Southern Illinois (10-1)

Wofford (9-2) at #2 McNeese State (11-0)
James Madison (8-3) at Appalachian State (9-2)


Your thoughts? xchinscratchx

[Houndawg]

WIU will go at 8-3 _if_ they win out against SIU and Youngstown. Its a tall order, but its possible. Next weekends "battle for second place in the Gateway" should be a lot of fun. SIU will go to the playoffs regardless of what happens next Saturday. WIU is already in a playoff situation, and the rest of the Gateway is already eliminated.

I'm already looking forward to next weekend...

WIU has their back to the wall and SIU is playing toward a first round home game. Put your chinstraps on. I imagine SIU will use UNI's strategy of ball control. Good chance for big pass plays on running downs for SIU.

[Houndawg]

xreadx Here goes nothing...


Automatic Qualifiers:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Massachusetts
Gateway: Northern Iowa
MEAC: Delaware State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids:
CAA: Delaware, Richmond, James Madison, New Hampshire
Gateway: Southern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Wofford, Appalachian State

*With my predicted finishing records below.

Pairings:
Holy Cross (8-3) at #1 Northern Iowa (11-0)
Richmond (8-3) at Elon (9-2)

Fordham (9-2) at #4 Massachusetts (10-1)
Delaware State (9-2) at Delaware (10-1)

New Hampshire (8-3) at #3 Montana (11-0)
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) at Southern Illinois (10-1)

Wofford (9-2) at #2 McNeese State (11-0)
James Madison (8-3) at Appalachian State (9-2)


Your thoughts? xchinscratchx

From the "what if" dept., if your finish is accurate how do you decide which 10-1 team gets the 4th seed. Not that Montana deserves one.xsmiley_wix

[YoUDeeMan]

A 10-1 SIU team will not go on the road for the 1st round.

Not so sure about that....

2003:10-1 Gateway Co-champ SIU visits Newark, DE in the first round. :D

[JMU Duke Dog]

From the "what if" dept., if your finish is accurate how do you decide which 10-1 team gets the 4th seed. Not that Montana deserves one.xsmiley_wix

I chose Massachusetts to get the 4th seed over Delaware and Southern Illinois due to the Minutemen not having lost to a I-FCS team in 2007 and winning their conference as well.

[pokum88]

ok so laugh at my picks all you want. this is just what i would do if the season plays out like i have predicted. Ok so Central Arkansas beats McNeese dropping them out of a seed and The citidal wins out giving them my last at large bid im not sure on bids or what not so i just judged my home teams on previous blogs of predictions. fell free to critisize

Autos:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: UMass
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Delaware St
OVC: EKU
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Wofford
SLC: Mcneese

At-Large:
CAA: James Madison, Delaware, New Hampshire, Richmond
Gateway: S Illinois
Southern: Elon, Appalachian St, The citidal


Eastern Kentucky @ UNI (1)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Wofford @ Southern Illinois(4)
James Madison @ Appalachian St

McNeese St @ Montana (2)
The Citidal @ Richmond

Fordham @ UMass (3)
Elon @ New Hampshire


just for fun if things were to play out somehow my first round winners would be
UNI Delaware Wofford james madison Montana Richmond Umass and Elon

If McNeese does lose to Central Ark and goes 10-1 they will not be on the road for round one.

[SeattleGriz]

Dropped MEAC from having multiple bids thanks to Norfolk St's loss and dropped Montana St following the loss this week. SLC will no longer get multiple bids.

Finding regional games are tough. Delaware St at Delaware is easy enough. Fordham going to UMass works and I think EKU to McNeese. The rest was trying to avoid CAA matchups in the first round!

Autos:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: UMass
Gateway: UNI
MEAC: Delaware St
OVC: EKU
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon
SLC: McNeese

At-Large:
CAA: James Madison, Delaware, New Hampshire, Richmond
Gateway: S Illinois
Southern: Wofford, Georgia Southern, Appalachian St


Wofford @ UNI (1)
James Madison @ Appalachian St

Fordham @ UMass (4)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Richmond @ Montana (3)
Elon @ New Hampshire

Southern Illinois @ Georgia Southern
Eastern Kentucky @ McNeese St (2)

Great work on the projected playoffs.

I won't disagree with any of it, because I am too lazy to do one myself, but I will say to keep an eye on Eastern Washington. If they win out, they will only have 3 losses, with those being Portland State, Montana and BYU.

That seems like the Big Sky's only hope to get a second team in the playoffs as of now.

[Houndawg]

Great work on the projected playoffs.

I won't disagree with any of it, because I am too lazy to do one myself, but I will say to keep an eye on Eastern Washington. If they win out, they will only have 3 losses, with those being Portland State, Montana and BYU.

That seems like the Big Sky's only hope to get a second team in the playoffs as of now.

Portland State is going to hurt.

[RE/MAXGriz]

MSU might've been looking ahead when they lost to UNC, they've got 3 losses right now (Texas A&M, Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado) and they've got to play Northern Arizona, then @ Portland St then Montana. If they win those out then maybe they'd be looking at an at-large bid (assuming Montana wins the two games before that against PSU & Idaho St).

EWU has an easy schedule here on out I believe, they'll finish with 3 losses probably as well.

[SeattleGriz]

Portland State is going to hurt.

I agree, but EWU is still a young team, the loss was fairly early in the conference and they have a decent history of doing well in the playoffs.

Not a for sure, but still the only realistic chance for the Big Sky to get two teams.

If they do make it, I bet we have some people saying they are the best 8-3 team in the playoffs.

[JMU Duke Dog]

I think if the Big Sky has a team finish 8-3 (Eastern Washington possibly) then they will make the playoffs over an 8-3 Holy Cross for example.

[Saint3333]

I don't think an 8-3 EWU team gets in over a CAA or SoCon 8-3 team.

[SeattleGriz]

I don't think an 8-3 EWU team gets in over a CAA or SoCon 8-3 team.

I think it will depend on how many are from each conference. For example, if its the choice between the 5th CAA or 3rd SoCon, and the 2nd Big Sky, I belive EWU gets in.

[AlphaSigMD]

I think it will depend on how many are from each conference. For example, if its the choice between the 5th CAA or 3rd SoCon, and the 2nd Big Sky, I belive EWU gets in.

A 3rd SoCon gets in before a 5th CAA. (but both could also occur)

A 3rd SoCon team gets in before an 8-3 EWU (but both could also occur)

A 8-3 EWU would probably get in over a 4th SoCon team, and possibly a 5th CAA team, but all the teams in question have a lot left to play.

In response to a different post, IF EWU gets in at 8-3, they will almost certainly NOT be the best team in the playoffs.
Teams that will probably be in the playoffs with 3
UNH or James Madison
Wofford or Georgia Southern

I would like to say things like "Holy Cross and Fordham both won't make the playoffs as at-large bids", but more unusual things happened.

[Saint3333]

An 8-3 3rd place in the SoCon gets in before the 2nd place Big Sky and 5th place CAA team.

EWU's best win if they finish 8-3 would likely be NAU (what happened to Montana St. btw)

If any of the following SoCon teams go 8-3 here are the quality wins:
Elon would have quality wins over GSU and Wofford
GSU over ASU and either Colorado St. or Wofford
Wofford over ASU and Citadel
Citadel over Elon and ASU (I hope not)
ASU over Michigan, Elon, and NAU

All of these schools at 8-3 have more or better quality wins than an 8-3 EWU.

If the playoffs start tomorrow the at large bids go to CAA (4 or 5), SoCon (2 or 3), and Gateway (1), but there is a lot of football to go and as we know most years playoffs projections in late October don't work out.

[skinny_uncle]

xreadx Here goes nothing...


Automatic Qualifiers:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Massachusetts
Gateway: Northern Iowa
MEAC: Delaware State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids:
CAA: Delaware, Richmond, James Madison, New Hampshire
Gateway: Southern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Wofford, Appalachian State

*With my predicted finishing records below.

Pairings:
Holy Cross (8-3) at #1 Northern Iowa (11-0)
Richmond (8-3) at Elon (9-2)

Fordham (9-2) at #4 Massachusetts (10-1)
Delaware State (9-2) at Delaware (10-1)

New Hampshire (8-3) at #3 Montana (11-0)
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) at Southern Illinois (10-1)

Wofford (9-2) at #2 McNeese State (11-0)
James Madison (8-3) at Appalachian State (9-2)


Your thoughts? xchinscratchx
That looks more reasonable than what I have been seeing from a lot of so-called experts.

[Saint3333]

I like those pairing too, Wofford upsets McNeese, travel to Boone, and then SUI beats Montana, and travels to Boonexthumbsupx.

Hey a guy can dream right.

[skinny_uncle]

I like those pairing too, Wofford upsets McNeese, travel to Boone, and then SUI beats Montana, and travels to Boonexthumbsupx.

Hey a guy can dream right.

I hope you mean SIU because I have no idea who SUI is.

[blur2005]

I hope you mean SIU because I have no idea who SUI is.
Probably a typo, but his whole post was in error because those teams would actually be travelling to Harrisonburg, VA... :D xthumbsupx

[blur2005]

Anyway, I'll go ahead and give this a shot, since I'm procrastinating on some reading I need to do and am watching the Pats dismantle the Skins. This is not based on if the season ended today but rather on what I think will happen.

Automatic Qualifiers:
Big Sky: Montana (11-0)
CAA: Massachusetts (I think) (9-2)
Gateway: Northern Iowa (11-0)
MEAC: Delaware State (10-1)
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (8-3)
Southern: Wofford (9-2)
Southland: McNeese State (11-0)

At-Large Bids:
CAA: James Madison (9-2), New Hampshire (9-2), Delaware (9-2), Richmond (8-3)
Gateway: Southern Illinois (10-1)
Southern: Appalachian State (9-2), Elon (8-3), Georgia Southern (8-3)

Seeds:
#1 Northern Iowa
#2 McNeese State
#3 Montana
#4 Massachusetts

Pairings:
Holy Cross @ #1 Northern Iowa
Delaware State @ Delaware

Elon @ #4 Massachusetts
Wofford @ Southern Illinois

Richmond @ #3 Montana
New Hampshire @ Georgia Southern

Eastern Kentucky @ #2 McNeese State
James Madison @ Appalachian State


Some of you may critique these pairings but as a JMU fan, I know how inane some of the matchups can be so I think this is the kind of thing we can expect.

[Cocky]

TT, I would agree that you have listed the 8 most deserving at-large teams at this stage of the season. However, I really doubt that 2 conferences will receive 7 of the 8 at-large bids.

I would also replace Fordham with Holy Cross as I believe HC will win that upcoming battle. The winner of the Eastern Illinois and Jax State game will make an interesting case if they win out. I'm not saying they would be deserving but a 2nd OVC team might be more politically correct over a 4th SoCon or 5th CAA team.


I believe our loss to ASU early in the year will keep us out of the playoffs. The other losses to EKU and Memphis don't look bad. We are playing at a level now that would be competitive in the playoffs but that loss and the OVC's rep will probably keep us out even if we win out.

[813Jag]

I believe our loss to ASU early in the year will keep us out of the playoffs. The other losses to EKU and Memphis don't look bad. We are playing at a level now that would be competitive in the playoffs but that loss and the OVC's rep will probably keep us out even if we win out.
The way their season has progressed really took alot of luster off of that victory.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

All of the teams that can get 8 wins (I'm going to go out on a limb and say there won't be any 7-4 contenders this year).

key
:D most likely will have 8 or more wins
xthumbsupx good chance of getting 8 or more wins
:) decent chance of getting 8 or more wins
:( remote chance of getting 8 or more wins
xsmhx little or no chance of getting 8 or more wins

CAA
:D Delaware (7-1) Remaining games: JMU, Richmond, Villanova
xthumbsupx Hofstra (6-2) Remaining games: W&M, Northeastern, UMass
xthumbsupx JMU (6-2) Remaining games: Delaware, W&M, Towson
:D UMass (7-1) Remaining games: Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Hofstra
:D Richmond (6-2) Remaining games: Villanova, Delaware, William and Mary
:(Villanova (5-3) Remaining games: Richmond, Towson, Delaware
:D New Hampshire (6-2) Remaining games: Northeastern, UMass, Maine

Socon
xthumbsupx App. State (6-2) Remaining games: The Citadel, WCU, UTC
xthumbsupx Elon (6-2) Remaining games: Furman, The Citadel, Stony Brook
:) Georgia Soutern (6-2) Remaining games: Wofford, Furman, CSU
:(The Citadel (5-3) Remaining games: App. State, VMI, Elon
:D Wofford (7-2) Remaining games: GSU, UTC

Gateway
A LOCK UNI (8-0) Remaining games: Missouri State, Indiana State, SUU
:D Southern Illinois (7-1) Remaining games: WIU, Illinois State, Hampton
:(Western Illinois (6-3) Remaining games: SIU, Youngstown State

Big Sky
A LOCK Montana (8-0) Remaining games: Portland State, Idaho State, MSU
xthumbsupx Eastern Washington (5-3) Remaining games: UNC, NAU, WSU
:(Montana State (5-2) Remaining games: NAU, Portland State, Montana

Ohio Valley
:D Eastern Kentucky (7-2) Remaining games Austin Peay, Tennessee Tech
:) Jacksonville State (5-3) RG: Samford, Eastern Illinois, SE Missouri State
xthumbsupx Eastern Illinois (6-3) RG: Jacksonville State, Samford

Southland
A LOCK McNeese State (8-0) RG: SFA, Northwestern St., Central Arkansas
:) Nicholls State (5-3) RG: Sam Houston St., Texas St., SE Louisiana (this team cannot get to 7 DI wins)

IMO, none of the other conferences stand a chance of getting one (or more than one in the case of the MEAC and Patriot League) in this year. The Delaware State and Norfolk State game will probably decide the MEAC champ and the sole representative from that conference.

Here are the teams from the aforementioned lists that I think will hit 8 or more wins...


The CAA:
Delaware
UMass
Richmond
JMU
New Hampshire

Socon
App. State
Elon
Georgia Southern (my optimistic, homer prediction)
Wofford

Gateway
UNI (A LOCK)
SIU

Big Sky
Montana (A LOCK)
Eastern Washington

OVC
The OVC can only have two, and the JSU-EIU game will decide who the second one will be. The game being AT JSU, I'll give them the edge.
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State

Southland
McNeese State

There are 16 teams on this list, and 6 will get in on autobids, leaving 10 competing for AL bids, meaning two of these teams will be left out of the playoffs and will feel that they were Woofed. My guess is that these teams will be Jacksonville State and Eastern Washington due to strength of schedule. Now, onto the playoff selection. I don't know who to pick for Delaware State versus Norfolk State, so I will go with the home team, DSU...

Autobids:
Socon: Elon (could be a convoluted tiebreaker situation if Elon does not win all remaining conference games)
CAA: UMass
OVC: Eastern Kentucky
Southland: McNeese State
MEAC: Delaware State
Big Sky: Montana
Patriot: Fordham
Gateway: Northern Iowa

At-Large Bids
Socon: App. State, Georgia Southern, Wofford
CAA: Delaware, Richmond, JMU, New Hampshire
Gateway: SIU

So the matchups for the playoffs are:
Fordham @ #1 UNI
Wofford @ Richmond

SIU @ #4 Montana
Delaware State @ Delaware

Eastern Kentucky @ #2 McNeese State
Appalachian State @ James Madison

New Hampshire @ Elon
Georgia Southern @ #3 UMass

[blur2005]

All of the teams that can get 8 wins (I'm going to go out on a limb and say there won't be any 7-4 contenders this year).

key
:D most likely will have 8 or more wins
xthumbsupx good chance of getting 8 or more wins
:) decent chance of getting 8 or more wins
:( remote chance of getting 8 or more wins
xsmhx little or no chance of getting 8 or more wins

CAA
:D Delaware (7-1) Remaining games: JMU, Richmond, Villanova
xthumbsupx Hofstra (6-2) Remaining games: W&M, Northeastern, UMass
xthumbsupx JMU (6-2) Remaining games: Delaware, W&M, Towson
:D UMass (7-1) Remaining games: Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Hofstra
:D Richmond (6-2) Remaining games: Villanova, Delaware, William and Mary
:(Villanova (5-3) Remaining games: Richmond, Towson, Delaware


You forgot New Hampshire, a team that will probably get eight wins (I think nine). There are just too many good teams in the CAA for the conference to NOT get five teams.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

You forgot New Hampshire, a team that will probably get eight wins (I think nine). There are just too many good teams in the CAA for the conference to NOT get five teams.


CRAP...well, let me go back and fix it...

[Syntax Error]

CAA will not get 5 teams...X ______________Co-Sign

1-2 BSC
3-4 CAA
2 GFC
0-1 GWFC
1-2 MEAC
1-2 OVC
1-2 PL
3 SOCON
1 SLC

at this time

[joecooll6]

Thats a tough draw for UNI in the first round. Id rather have the OVC champ than Wofford.

[ekufbfan]

Every conference has a last place team. Are you sure you want to hang your hat on that one? Not hanging my hat on anything of the such, just making my point regarding giving 3rd or 4th place So Co team a higher seed than EKU if we are the auto bid....makes no sense just because one of these teams play in the So Co (or any other conf for that matter).


Not sure why you believe EKU should be immune from going to UNI. First the NCAA, tries to match teams that are geographically close to cut down on travel expenses. It seems bigskyrocks also tries to do this. Second, the OVC entry usually plays a Gateway team. This helps the Gateway's overall playoff record. Third, If you are going to be the champion you are going to have to play the best team sometime. Lastly, Your team is currently ranked 18th in the AGS Poll. How does that make them so special that they can't go to UNI???
We aren't special, but neither is a 3rd or 4th place So Co team (the exception may be App State, I have a lot of respect for them). My point was I don't see why if EKU gets the auto bid (which we still have two more games left before that happens) why some of you think we should be the 15th or 16th seed, playing at No 1 or 2, when 3rd or 4th place team in any conference gets a better seed than us, just does not play out for me. BTW, yesterday on EKU's game broadcast our radio people were saying that we were not shying away from our bid...meaning putting up $$$, whatever that is worth!



Second, the OVC entry usually plays a Gateway team. This helps the Gateway's overall playoff record. I guess you were trying to slide a little insult our way..???


Third, If you are going to be the champion you are going to have to play the best team sometime. Believe me, EKU fans know that, we HAVE been there before!

[blur2005]

Not hanging my hat on anything of the such, just making my point regarding giving 3rd or 4th place So Co team a higher seed than EKU if we are the auto bid....makes no sense just because one of these teams play in the So Co (or any other conf for that matter).


We aren't special, but neither is a 3rd or 4th place So Co team (the exception may be App State, I have a lot of respect for them). My point was I don't see why if EKU gets the auto bid (which we still have two more games left before that happens) why some of you think we should be the 15th or 16th seed, playing at No 1 or 2, when 3rd or 4th place team in any conference gets a better seed than us, just does not play out for me. BTW, yesterday on EKU's game broadcast our radio people were saying that we were not shying away from our bid...meaning putting up $$$, whatever that is worth!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We get this every year, people who don't know how the system works: the NCAA Committee seeds four teams - the rest are unseeded and really their records mean nothing at that point, only the bids for a home game. So if Eastern Kentucky gets matched up with a non-seeded team, like Georgia Southern, the Colonels may go 9-2 but they'll be on the road at the 8-3 Eagles because Georgia Southern will definitely outbid most anyone. It doesn't matter if the committee might believe the Colonels are better; it's about money.

The fact that teams are definitely unseeded and it's about money was made very clear to me when JMU went on the road to Lehigh in 2004 en route to the title and had to go to Youngstown State last year despite being ranked in most polls one spot below them (both were in the top six or seven).

[URMite]

All of the teams that can get 8 wins (I'm going to go out on a limb and say there won't be any 7-4 contenders this year).

key
:D most likely will have 8 or more wins
xthumbsupx good chance of getting 8 or more wins
:) decent chance of getting 8 or more wins
:( remote chance of getting 8 or more wins
xsmhx little or no chance of getting 8 or more wins

CAA
:D Delaware (7-1) Remaining games: JMU, Richmond, Villanova
xthumbsupx Hofstra (6-2) Remaining games: W&M, Northeastern, UMass
xthumbsupx JMU (6-2) Remaining games: Delaware, W&M, Towson
:D UMass (7-1) Remaining games: Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Hofstra
:D Richmond (6-2) Remaining games: Villanova, Delaware, William and Mary
:(Villanova (5-3) Remaining games: Richmond, Towson, Delaware
:D New Hampshire (6-2) Remaining games: Northeastern, UMass, Maine

Socon
xthumbsupx App. State (6-2) Remaining games: The Citadel, WCU, UTC
xthumbsupx Elon (6-2) Remaining games: Furman, The Citadel, Stony Brook
:) Georgia Soutern (6-2) Remaining games: Wofford, Furman, CSU
:(The Citadel (5-3) Remaining games: App. State, VMI, Elon
:D Wofford (7-2) Remaining games: GSU, UTC

Gateway
A LOCK UNI (8-0) Remaining games: Missouri State, Indiana State, SUU
:D Southern Illinois (7-1) Remaining games: WIU, Illinois State, Hampton
:(Western Illinois (6-3) Remaining games: SIU, Youngstown State

Big Sky
A LOCK Montana (8-0) Remaining games: Portland State, Idaho State, MSU
xthumbsupx Eastern Washington (5-3) Remaining games: UNC, NAU, WSU
:(Montana State (5-2) Remaining games: NAU, Portland State, Montana

Ohio Valley
:D Eastern Kentucky (7-2) Remaining games Austin Peay, Tennessee Tech
:) Jacksonville State (5-3) RG: Samford, Eastern Illinois, SE Missouri State
xthumbsupx Eastern Illinois (6-3) RG: Jacksonville State, Samford

Southland
A LOCK McNeese State (8-0) RG: SFA, Northwestern St., Central Arkansas
:) Nicholls State (5-3) RG: Sam Houston St., Texas St., SE Louisiana

IMO, none of the other conferences stand a chance of getting one (or more than one in the case of the MEAC and Patriot League) in this year. The Delaware State and Norfolk State game will probably decide the MEAC champ and the sole representative from that conference.

Here are the teams from the aforementioned lists that I think will hit 8 or more wins...


The CAA:
Delaware
UMass
Richmond
JMU
New Hampshire

Socon
App. State
Elon
Georgia Southern (my optimistic, homer prediction)
Wofford

Gateway
UNI (A LOCK)
SIU

Big Sky
Montana (A LOCK)
Eastern Washington

OVC
The OVC can only have two, and the JSU-EIU game will decide who the second one will be. The game being AT JSU, I'll give them the edge.
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State

Southland
McNeese State

There are 16 teams on this list, and 6 will get in on autobids, leaving 10 competing for AL bids, meaning two of these teams will be left out of the playoffs and will feel that they were Woofed. My guess is that these teams will be Jacksonville State and Eastern Washington due to strength of schedule. Now, onto the playoff selection. I don't know who to pick for Delaware State versus Norfolk State, so I will go with the home team, DSU...

Autobids:
Socon: Elon (could be a convoluted tiebreaker situation if Elon does not win all remaining conference games)
CAA: UMass
OVC: Eastern Kentucky
Southland: McNeese State
MEAC: Delaware State
Big Sky: Montana
Patriot: Fordham
Gateway: Northern Iowa

At-Large Bids
Socon: App. State, Georgia Southern, Wofford
CAA: Delaware, Richmond, JMU, New Hampshire
Gateway: SIU
Big Sky: Eastern Washington

So the matchups for the playoffs are:
Fordham @ #1 UNI
Wofford @ Richmond

SIU @ #4 Montana
Delaware State @ Delaware

Eastern Kentucky @ #2 McNeese State
Appalachian State @ James Madison

New Hampshire @ Elon
Georgia Southern @ #3 UMass

Eastern Washington is the 9th at-large but doesn't play?xlolx

[ekufbfan]

We get this every year, people who don't know how the system works: the NCAA Committee seeds four teams - the rest are unseeded and really their records mean nothing at that point, only the bids for a home game. So if Eastern Kentucky gets matched up with a non-seeded team, like Georgia Southern, the Colonels may go 9-2 but they'll be on the road at the 8-3 Eagles because Georgia Southern will definitely outbid most anyone. It doesn't matter if the committee might believe the Colonels are better; it's about money.

The fact that teams are definitely unseeded and it's about money was made very clear to me when JMU went on the road to Lehigh in 2004 en route to the title and had to go to Youngstown State last year despite being ranked in most polls one spot below them (both were in the top six or seven).


Did you read my last line....re: The story IS that EKU will be putting up $$$, will it be enough? I don't know. But it has always been about money, since the IAA/FCS playoffs began! As said above, we HAVE been there before!

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Eastern Washington is the 9th at-large but doesn't play?xlolx

fixed again. thanks

[McNeese72]

Its happened before ... 10-1 is no guarantee of a home game. xcoffeex

The teams it happened to weren't McNeese. You need to go look to the NCAA website and find the FCS Football Championship Handbook and look up the other factors that the NCAA considers when deciding who gets to host games other than the first four seeds.

Doc

[blur2005]

The teams it happened to weren't McNeese. You need to go look to the NCAA website and find the FCS Football Championship Handbook and look up the other factors that the NCAA considers when deciding who gets to host games other than the first four seeds.

Doc
The most recent case was Southern Ill in 2003, I believe.

[siugrad99]

EKU - Get ready for a trip to Carbondale and to follow the fate of the last 2 OVC teams we've faced in the playoffs...

[ThreadStopper]

So if Cal Poly continues to score big, beats the great North Dakota State 50-48 or something and finishes 8-3 will this board support their inclusion in lieu another CCA team?

[blur2005]

So if Cal Poly continues to score big, beats the great North Dakota State 50-48 or something and finishes 8-3 will this board support their inclusion in lieu another CCA team?
It's, ahem, the CAA, ahem.

If Cal Poly upsets NDSU, then I would definitely consider the Mustangs a playoff team. That being said, I don't think it's going to happen. I think a SoCon team would be woofed for Cal Poly in that scenario before a CAA team would, unless things get really, really crazy here at the end and all the CAA teams lose to the second and third tier schools in conference and a bunch are 8-3. The way it looks now, it's more likely that three or even four could be at least 9-2.

[james_lawfirm]

Did you read my last line....re: The story IS that EKU will be putting up $$$, will it be enough? I don't know. But it has always been about money, since the IAA/FCS playoffs began! As said above, we HAVE been there before!

Don't want to step in the middle of a spitting contest, but I think the poster to whom you are replying was referring to your earlier comment about being the 15th or 16th seed. There are only 4 seeds. All other home games are decided on who offers the NCAA more moola, and a few other factors, like avg. attendance (which is a predictor on how much moola might be made at a playoff game).

[Killsback]

According to Mapquest...Eastern Kentucky is closer to Appalachian State (304 MIles) than SIU (334 Miles) and could axctually Bus to Boone. The NCAA looks to save as much money as possible and a bus trip is cheaper than a charter. I would look for EKU to bus to Appalachian State if both make the playoffs. This would put SIU in a precarious situation like it was in 2003 when they were 10-1 and probably #5 in the country. They were sent to #1 Delaware.

SIU needs to win their final 3 games and hope to get that #4 seed to assure them of a home game.

[MSU_77]

Wofford (9-2) at #2 McNeese State (11-0)


I'd love to see that matchup. McNeese has never played Wofford.

[skinny_uncle]

According to Mapquest...Eastern Kentucky is closer to Appalachian State (304 MIles) than SIU (334 Miles) and could axctually Bus to Boone. The NCAA looks to save as much money as possible and a bus trip is cheaper than a charter. I would look for EKU to bus to Appalachian State if both make the playoffs. This would put SIU in a precarious situation like it was in 2003 when they were 10-1 and probably #5 in the country. They were sent to #1 Delaware.

SIU needs to win their final 3 games and hope to get that #4 seed to assure them of a home game.

Even at 10-1, SIU might not get a seed. If there are any East Coast 10-1 teams, we will be out in the cold.

[blukeys]

According to Mapquest...Eastern Kentucky is closer to Appalachian State (304 MIles) than SIU (334 Miles) and could axctually Bus to Boone. The NCAA looks to save as much money as possible and a bus trip is cheaper than a charter. I would look for EKU to bus to Appalachian State if both make the playoffs. This would put SIU in a precarious situation like it was in 2003 when they were 10-1 and probably #5 in the country. They were sent to #1 Delaware.

SIU needs to win their final 3 games and hope to get that #4 seed to assure them of a home game.

McNeese was the #! seed in 2003. Delaware was seeded #2, Wofford #3 and Colgate#4.

A difference of 30 miles would not sway the NCAA selection committee in their first round pairings.

[Houndawg]

Even at 10-1, SIU might not get a seed. If there are any East Coast 10-1 teams, we will be out in the cold.

How often do two teams from the same league get seeds? Hard to see that happening even if we win the last 3 games by 50 points each.

[Killsback]

McNeese was the #! seed in 2003. Delaware was seeded #2, Wofford #3 and Colgate#4.

A difference of 30 miles would not sway the NCAA selection committee in their first round pairings.

According to the NCAA playoff guide, 300 miles is the supposed cutoff from bus ride to a flight. They could make a legitimate case to have EKU bus to Boone...but 334 miles from EKU to SIU is a definite flight..Saving money is what they are all about. My money is on EKU at Appalachian State in the 1st round. That is the only likely possible bus match-up from the teams that are projected to make it to the 1st round.

[bcrawf]

Here is how I see it...

Richmond @ (1) UNI
New Hampshire @ Georgia Southern

Elon @ (4) Montana
Eastern Kentucky @ Appalachian State

Wofford @ (2) McNeese State
James Madison @ Southern Illinois

Fordham @ (3) UMass
Delaware State @ Delaware

[blukeys]

Not hanging my hat on anything of the such, just making my point regarding giving 3rd or 4th place So Co team a higher seed than EKU if we are the auto bid....makes no sense just because one of these teams play in the So Co (or any other conf for that matter).
Conference affiliation means a lot in ALL NCAA tournaments. In the Men's basketball tournament AQ teams are routinely seeded below the 4th, 5th, and 6th team from power conferences. No OVC team has won a playoff game in the 21st century. Non AQ SoCon teams have. Explain to me again why the OVC AQ which has not won a playoff game in this century is better than an at large SoCon team whose reps have.


We aren't special, but neither is a 3rd or 4th place So Co team (the exception may be App State, I have a lot of respect for them). My point was I don't see why if EKU gets the auto bid (which we still have two more games left before that happens) why some of you think we should be the 15th or 16th seed, playing at No 1 or 2, when 3rd or 4th place team in any conference gets a better seed than us, just does not play out for me. BTW, yesterday on EKU's game broadcast our radio people were saying that we were not shying away from our bid...meaning putting up $$$, whatever that is worth!

It really gets tiresome having to repeat the same facts over and over again to those who never bother to gather facts in the first place. Talk to AQ Patriot Champ Lafayette about traveling to App. State for their first round game in 2005. To their credit they went out played hard got some respect and did no whining. By the way the Patriot League has actually won playoff games in the 21st century!!xeekx



I guess you were trying to slide a little insult our way..???

No, Just stating the facts. Do you have any facts to the contrary. Since 2000 just what is the OVC record vs. the Gateway in the Playoffs?xconfusedx


Believe me, EKU fans know that, we HAVE been there before!

The last time you won a NC was 25 years ago when it was an 8 team tournament and I-AA was much smaller than it is today. You won that game by returning a blocked field goal attempt for a TD. Maybe you and the Florida A&M folks need to get together and commiserate that your conferences don't get the respect warranted by winning titles 25 to 30 years ago.

In addition there is no seeding past the top 4. Every year some team gets sent somewhere that makes folks scratch their heads who never bother to research that this is not a 16 team seeded tournament. Check out the rules and the history since 2001. It makes sense even if you don't like it.

[Syntax Error]

EKU has made the playoffs as many times as any team in the FCS (1979-80-81-82-83-84-86-87-88-89-90-91-92-93-94-95-97); the OVC last had a playoff win in 2000; EKU last won the championship in a 12 team tournament of 1982 (still irritates UD fans I guess being one of their two times being in the champ game), their fourth straight champ game (they won in 1980 too). :p ;)

[URMite]

It's, ahem, the CAA, ahem.

If Cal Poly upsets NDSU, then I would definitely consider the Mustangs a playoff team. That being said, I don't think it's going to happen. I think a SoCon team would be woofed for Cal Poly in that scenario before a CAA team would, unless things get really, really crazy here at the end and all the CAA teams lose to the second and third tier schools in conference and a bunch are 8-3. The way it looks now, it's more likely that three or even four could be at least 9-2.

Personally, I think the most likely is 2 at 10-1 (UD, UMass) and 4 at 8-3 (UNH, JMU, UR, Hofstra) But what I really want to look at is who has a legitimate shot at at-large outside of the CAA and SoCon. SIU looks pretty safe. With big wins, WIU and CP could be 8-3. Either EIU or JSU could get there, as could either Fordham or Holy Cross. DSU could still be 9-2 with a loss to Norfolk St. EWU & Montana St could both win out. Who else could be in the discussion?

[URMite]

EKU has made the playoffs as many times as any team in the FCS (1979-80-81-82-83-84-86-87-88-89-90-91-92-93-94-95-97); the OVC last had a playoff win in 2000; EKU last won the championship in a 12 team tournament of 1982 (still irritates UD fans I guess being one of their two times being in the champ game), their fourth straight champ game (they won in 1980 too). :p ;)

True but I believe Blukeys does have at least one point. The makeup of both the playoffs and the pool of FCS teams has changed over the years. There seems to be a significant change about every 10 years. '78-'85(maybe 86) '86-'97, and '98 to date. It looks like the latest change will be adding a 5th round.

[ekufbfan]

Conference affiliation means a lot in ALL NCAA tournaments. In the Men's basketball tournament AQ teams are routinely seeded below the 4th, 5th, and 6th team from power conferences. No OVC team has won a playoff game in the 21st century. Non AQ SoCon teams have. Explain to me again why the OVC AQ which has not won a playoff game in this century is better than an at large SoCon team whose reps have.

I believe I already have...several times in fact...regardless of how you see it!xeyebrowx



The last time you won a NC was 25 years ago when it was an 8 team tournament and I-AA was much smaller than it is today. You won that game by returning a blocked field goal attempt for a TD. Looks like it still bothers you, since you pointed out how long it had been since we won the NC, yet you know we DID WIN, regardless of HOW it happened!


In addition there is no seeding past the top 4. Every year some team gets sent somewhere that makes folks scratch their heads who never bother to research that this is not a 16 team seeded tournament. Check out the rules and the history since 2001. It makes sense even if you don't like it.
Excuse me if I used the wrong terminolgy (i.e. seeding, sorry if that offends you). The last time I checked this was a discussion board where all opinions were tolerated, if not welcomed. Seems your pants are all in a wad for some reason.:(

As far as what the rules are now, I don't believe anything has been officially decided yet and this is only speculation by fans who love their team just like I do...geez man, get over it!xpeacex

[blur2005]

Excuse me if I used the wrong terminolgy (i.e. seeding, sorry if that offends you). The last time I checked this was a discussion board where all opinions were tolerated, if not welcomed. Seems your pants are all in a wad for some reason.:(
This has nothing to do with tolerance, or you or anyone offending another poster. The word "seeding" implies that the NCAA ranks the teams - but they only do four, so obviously there's no 15th or 16th seed and there's no way of identifying teams in such a way because the determination of opponents and locations become geographically and monetarily driven.

[ekufbfan]

This has nothing to do with tolerance, or you or anyone offending another poster. The word "seeding" implies that the NCAA ranks the teams - but they only do four, so obviously there's no 15th or 16th seed and there's no way of identifying teams in such a way because the determination of opponents and locations become geographically and monetarily driven.

Thank you very much, I got it the first time, no need for this to be explained again. I know $$$$$ bids are big part of the equation, but IF you believe there isn't any politics in decisions made by the NCAA, well.........

[furpal87]

How often do two teams from the same league get seeds? Hard to see that happening even if we win the last 3 games by 50 points each.

2001: GSU amd Furman were 2,3 seeds, ended up playing in the Semis.

[BDKJMU]

EKU has made the playoffs as many times as any team in the FCS (1979-80-81-82-83-84-86-87-88-89-90-91-92-93-94-95-97); the OVC last had a playoff win in 2000; EKU last won the championship in a 12 team tournament of 1982 (still irritates UD fans I guess being one of their two times being in the champ game), their fourth straight champ game (they won in 1980 too). :p ;)

21st century didn't technically start till 2001xnodx

[JMU Duke Dog]

That looks more reasonable than what I have been seeing from a lot of so-called experts.

Thanks! I think Eastern Washington might replace Holy Cross as an at-large though. We shall see what happens!