Week 11 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

Just 2 weeks to go until Selection Sunday so here's my list of teams I have in playoff contention - the locks are starting to roll in but that bubble is still looking fairly tough as we hit the final 2 weeks of the regular season. I attempted to handicap everyone's odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining games. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
Sac St and Montana St are both locks and Sac St is probably a lock for a seed as well. Weber St is virtually a lock given their last 2. Idaho is probably ok winning only one of their last two but would need to win both to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat. I feel like Montana is heading towards a very polarizing 7-4 resume unless they can beat the Bobcats in Bozeman (and Massey actually favors them now) which would lock them in even if they're upset next week by EWU. UC Davis is still in it but they'll probably have to sweep Idaho and Sac St on the road to get in which is a tall order indeed. I see the Big Sky with very solid chance of at least 4 bids but that 5th one might depend on the rest of the bubble.

Locks
Sac St 9-0 (6-0) [1.52/0.48] - @PSU (82%), UC Davis (70%)
Montana St 8-1 (6-0) [1.34/0.66] - @Cal Poly (86%), Montana (48%)

Should be in
Weber St 7-2 (5-2) [1.82/0.18] - Idaho St (98%), @NAU (84%)

Work left to do
Idaho 6-3 (5-1) [1.42/0.58] - UC Davis (55%), @Idaho St (87%)
Montana 6-3 (3-3) [1.28/0.72] - EWU (76%), @Montana St (52%)

In the hunt
UC Davis 5-4 (4-2) [0.75/1.25] - @Idaho (45%), @Sac St (30%)


CAA
The CAA sorted itself out a bit yesterday. W&M is a lock and Elon is looking good needing only to beat Hampton to get to 8-3. Next Saturday will provide some clarity as all 4 teams with "work left to do" play each other - of the 4 Richmond and Delaware are in better shape as the winner next week locks themselves in and the loser could still get in by winning their finale (which isn't a gimme for either team). The winner of UNH and URI will be in very good shape while I think the loser will have a tough time making it to the right side of the bubble even if they finish 7-4 with a win in their finale. Nova is still in the hunt since winning their last two would give them the impressive wins to probably get them in at 7-4 but after getting stomped by Towson that seems very unlikely. I see the CAA getting to 4 bids fairly easily but, like the Big Sky, that 5th one probably depends on the rest of the bubble - even 6 is a possibility with a bubble implosion.

Locks
William & Mary 8-1 (5-1) [1.05/0.95] - Nova (64%), @Richmond (41%)

Should be in
Elon 7-3 (5-2) [0.90/0.10] - @Hampton (90%)

Work left to do
Richmond 7-2 (5-1) [1.10/0.90] - @Delaware (51%), William & Mary (59%)
Delaware 7-2 (4-2) [1.03/0.97] - Richmond (49%), @Nova (53%)
New Hampshire 6-3 (5-1) [1.16/1.84] URI (56%), @Maine (60%)
Rhode Island 6-3 (4-2) [1.05/0.95] - @UNH (44%), Albany (61%)

In the hunt
Villanova 5-4 (3-3) [0.83/1.17] - @W&M (36%), Delaware (47%)


MVFC
The MVFC playoff contenders could really thin next week with the top 2 teams playing the 2 teams clinging for dear life. SDSU is locked for the autobid and a seed and just needs a win in their finale next week against reeling Illinois St to get a top 2 seed. NDSU looks to be in pretty good shape but I'm more nervous than Massey is about their final two. 7-4 looks doable UND but they'll have a Selection Sunday sweat unless they sweep their final 2. Massey still isn't buying YSU but they can still drop a game and finish at 7-4 although will that be enough with a head-to-head loss to UND if there's only room for 3 from the MVFC? SIU and Illinois St both need to win out which is a tall order for them next week but their finale should be easier if they can pull it off. With the way the Big Sky, CAA, and SOCON are hoarding the at-larges I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 2 or 3 teams in but 4 is also still a decent possibility.

Locks
SDSU 9-1 (6-0) [0.94/0.06] - Illinois St (94%)

Should be in
NDSU 7-2 (4-1) [1.42/0.58] - @SIU (66%), UND (76%)

Work left to do
UND 6-3 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - USD (66%), @NDSU (24%)
YSU 6-3 (4-2) [0.85/1.15] - @Missouri St (41%), SIU (44%)

In the hunt
SIU 5-4 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - NDSU (34%), @YSU (56%)
Illinois St 5-4 (3-3) [0.91/1.09] - @SDSU (6%), WIU (85%)


SOCON
Pretty boring week in the SOCON as none of the big 4 played each other (Furman and Mercer were on bye) so it's still looking like 4 playoff bids for the conference is a very strong possibility. Samford locked themselves in while UTC and Furman both have a pretty clear path to 8 wins which should lock either of them in. Mercer closes out with two tough ones but a win in either should lock them in and Massey favors them in both. I'm seeing 4 bids for the SOCON but probably only one of the lower seeds given how no team seems likely to separate themselves from the pack unless Samford wins out.

Locks
Samford 8-1 (6-0) [0.84/1.16] - @UTC (38%), Mercer (46%)

Should be in
Chattanooga 7-2 (5-1) [1.35/0.65] - Samford (62%), @WCU (73%)
Furman 7-2 (5-1) [1.20/0.80] - @Mercer (34%), Wofford (86%)

Work left to do
Mercer 7-2 (5-1) [1.20/0.80] - Furman (66%), @Samford (54%)


OVC and Southland
There will be two autobids in this group - UIW is locked in and SEMO looks to be in good shape with a pretty easy path to 9 wins. SLU is favored pretty heavily in their final 2 but if they drop either I think they'd find themselves on the outside looking in. The two teams "in the hunt" are basically just playing for the autobid right now. If UTM and SEMO both finish 5-0 in the OVC the autobid would be decided by a coin flip (since they didn't play each other) which could make the OVC a 2 bid league if UTM wins that flip. As odd as it may sound Northwestern St clinches a share of the Southland title if they win @SLU next week - although it sounds like the NCAA SRS decides the auto if all 3 SLC teams finish 5-1 in conference so NWSU probably has to win out to get in which is, needless to say, going to be very tough for them.

Locks
Incarnate Word 9-1 (4-1) [0.83/0.17] - @NWSU (83%)

Should be in
SEMO 7-2 (3-0) [1.75/0.25] - @EIU (83%), Murray St (92%)

Work left to do
SLU 6-3 (3-1) [1.55/0.45] - NWSU (83%), @Nicholls (72%)

In the hunt
UT Martin 5-4 (3-0) [1.59/0.41] - @TSU (76%), EIU (83%)
Northwestern St 4-5 (4-0) [0.34/1.66] - @SLU (17%), UIW (17%)


Others
There will be 3 autos (from the Patriot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. NC Central also dropped from this list as they're back in line for the Celebration Bowl. Holy Cross is locked in and one win away from the PL auto. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they win out to get to 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross. The WAC/ASUN autobid scenarios are a mess but it seems pretty unlikely there's an at-large coming from that group (which would include EKU, APSU, ACU, UCA, and SFA). The Big South auto will come down to who wins the NC A&T/Gardner-Webb game in a couple weeks - the loser is almost certainly out. It depends on what happens with the leagues above but there may not be any at-large spots left for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the autos.


Locks
Holy Cross 9-0 (5-0) [1.70/0.30] - Bryant (82%), @Georgetown (88%)

Work left to do
Fordham 7-2 (3-1) [1.46/0.54] - Lafayette (74%), Colgate (72%)
EKU 6-3 (2-1) [1.06/0.94] - @Jax St (43%), KSU (63%)

In the hunt
Austin Peay 6-3 (2-2) [0.52/1.48] - @KSU (52%), @Alabama (0%)
ACU 6-3 (3-0) [0.74/1.26] - @SHSU (22%), SFA (52%)
NC A&T 6-3 (3-0) [0.99/1.01] - CSU (64%), @Gardner-Webb (36%)
UCA 4-5 (3-1) [1.01/0.99] - @SFA (51%), Jax St (50%)
Gardner Webb 4-5 (3-0) [1.17/0.83] - @Campbell (52%), NC A&T (64%)
Stephen F Austin 5-4 (2-2) [0.98/1.02] - UCA (49%), @ACU (48%)



The Field

So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds the last 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Sac St (11-0), Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Montana (8-3)
CAA: 4 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 1 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)

The other 6 autos:
OVC: SEMO (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (11-0)
ASUN/WAC: UCA (6-5) or ACU (7-4)
Big South: Gardner-Webb (6-5)
NEC: St Francis (9-2)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Sac St (11-0) Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), Chattanooga (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0) - first two out of the seeds: William & Mary (9-2), Mercer (9-2)

On the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: UC Davis (5-6), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (5-6), UND (7-4), YSU (6-5), Illinois St (6-5), SIU (6-5), UT-Martin (7-4), Northwestern St (4-7), Fordham (9-2), EKU (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4) or UCA (6-5), NC A&T (7-4), SFA (5-6)

Last 4 in (in no particular order): Montana (8-3), UNH (8-3), Furman (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Rhode Island (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (9-2), Austin Peay (7-4)

The bubble still looks tough this year but there's still a lot to be decided in the last 2 week - each upset (which are bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.


What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

[WileECoyote06]

I think EKU has a strong case for an at-large if they finish 7-4. They have a FBS win, a win against a (potential) conference champion (SEMO), are in the Massey Top 40. In a stretched view of their schedule, they've played four FBS teams. If they can upset Jacksonville State, I think they move from probable to a lock. They'll also have the 27th best schedule in their favor at the end of the season; better than fellow playoff contenders: Furman, Elon, Rhode Island, Richmond, Delaware, UNH, Austin Peay, SE Louisiana, SEMO, UT-Martin, William & Mary, Villanova, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Northwestern State, Holy Cross, and Fordham.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I think EKU has a strong case for an at-large if they finish 7-4. They have a FBS win, a win against a (potential) conference champion (SEMO), are in the Massey Top 40. In a stretched view of their schedule, they've played four FBS teams. If they can upset Jacksonville State, I think they move from probable to a lock. They'll also have the 27th best schedule in their favor at the end of the season; better than fellow playoff contenders: Furman, Elon, Rhode Island, Richmond, Delaware, UNH, Austin Peay, SE Louisiana, SEMO, UT-Martin, William & Mary, Villanova, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Northwestern State, Holy Cross, and Fordham.

....WILECOYOTE........DON'T EAT DUH ACME BIRDSEED.........xsmhx........BRAWK!

[Daytripper]

I would hate to see Fordham get punked. They have been consistently good all year.

[crusader11]

I would hate to see Fordham get punked. They have been consistently good all year.

Agree. In most years, they played a great OOC (FBS, three CAAs, a gimme NEC) -- unlucky that Albany, Stony Brook, and Monmouth ended up being three of the weakest teams in the league.

They're going to be 9-2, average 50 PPG, and have razor thin losses to what looks to be a seeded team (HC) and current MAC East leader Ohio.

There isn't a team in the FCS that would hold their offense below 35, IMO.

[WileECoyote06]

lol

[caribbeanhen]

Fordham should get an at large based on how they played Holy Cross

[Tribal]

Fordham, statistically, has to top offense in the FCS. Like someone pointed out, they played three bottom half CAA squads. Nothing they could do other than beat the opposition. Had they amassed their record vs W&M, UR, UNH, and/or UD, they’d have a real argument. Impressive losses to Ohio and HC are great but wins against non-playoff squads hurt them. The PL is generally a one bid league so that’s on Fordham having remained in that league. HC ran off 4 straight titles…beat them and seal your berth.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Fordham, statistically, has to top offense in the FCS. Like someone pointed out, they played three bottom half CAA squads. Nothing they could do other than beat the opposition. Had they amassed their record vs W&M, UR, UNH, and/or UD, they’d have a real argument. Impressive losses to Ohio and HC are great but wins against non-playoff squads hurt them. The PL is generally a one bid league so that’s on Fordham having remained in that league. HC ran off 4 straight titles…beat them and seal your berth.

....DO YOUSE...STEP ON SPIDERS....xeyebrowx.....BRAWK!

[Professor Chaos]

I think EKU has a strong case for an at-large if they finish 7-4. They have a FBS win, a win against a (potential) conference champion (SEMO), are in the Massey Top 40. In a stretched view of their schedule, they've played four FBS teams. If they can upset Jacksonville State, I think they move from probable to a lock. They'll also have the 27th best schedule in their favor at the end of the season; better than fellow playoff contenders: Furman, Elon, Rhode Island, Richmond, Delaware, UNH, Austin Peay, SE Louisiana, SEMO, UT-Martin, William & Mary, Villanova, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Northwestern State, Holy Cross, and Fordham.
I think if EKU beats Jax St and Kennesaw they'll be the ASUN/WAC auto. The process is kind of convoluted (https://www.wacsports.com/sports/fball/2022-23/releases/2022fbasunautobid) but it probably would come down to ASUN/WAC "Power Poll" (Warren Nolan's computer algorithm) to decide it and I'd have to think they'd be at the top between those two leagues with those wins to close out the season.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

It should be noted that Fordham earned at-large bids in 2013 and 2015 and were either the first or second team left out in 2016. While the PL has traditionally been a one bid league there is precedent for at-large bids over its history; even dating back to a 16 team field. With that said, Lehigh being left out in 2012 with a 10-1 record was egregious. To force a team to go undefeated in their league 3 straight years who had built up national credibility was an insane threshold to hold Lehigh to.

I am confident Fordham will get in at 9-2. They could be an attractive team for an ESPN broadcast....

[MR. CHICKEN]

........FORDHAM @ DELAWARE....IS UH NATURAL PARIN'.......IF.........xhighfivex....BRAWK!

[WrenFGun]

I think if EKU beats Jax St and Kennesaw they'll be the ASUN/WAC auto. The process is kind of convoluted (https://www.wacsports.com/sports/fball/2022-23/releases/2022fbasunautobid) but it probably would come down to ASUN/WAC "Power Poll" (Warren Nolan's computer algorithm) to decide it and I'd have to think they'd be at the top between those two leagues with those wins to close out the season.

Yeah, I think they look like an autobid team to me.

[WrenFGun]

It should be noted that Fordham earned at-large bids in 2013 and 2015 and were either the first or second team left out in 2016. While the PL has traditionally been a one bid league there is precedent for at-large bids over its history; even dating back to a 16 team field. With that said, Lehigh being left out in 2012 with a 10-1 record was egregious. To force a team to go undefeated in their league 3 straight years who had built up national credibility was an insane threshold to hold Lehigh to.

I am confident Fordham will get in at 9-2. They could be an attractive team for an ESPN broadcast....

Fordham is my first team out, but a lot could happen. Plenty of CAA teams could fail to get to 8 DI wins, opening a spot. Same with Mercer, Idaho, etc. I still have a tough time taking a 9-2 Fordham who hasn't beat anyone over a 7-4 UND who has numerous decent-to-good wins.

I also don't think all the teams above in the CAA are going to get to 8 DI wins. Rhode Island against UNH is an elimination game next week, and if Delaware [hosting] beats Richmond this weekend, they're probably playing for their playoff lives against William and Mary. Meanwhile, if Elon finishes 6-2 in the CAA, if they're the outright 3rd place winner then UNH may get the CAA title.

A lot of things up in the air there.

Can't ignore the fact that UTM does not play SEMO, too, and both are undefeated in conference.

[caribbeanhen]

........FORDHAM @ DELAWARE....IS UH NATURAL PARIN'.......IF.........xhighfivex....BRAWK!

I agree but afraid they will saddle up the Mule and bring in Francis

[MR. CHICKEN]

....AS LONG AS IT'S IN NEWARK!........BRAWK!

[caribbeanhen]

Fordham is my first team out, but a lot could happen. Plenty of CAA teams could fail to get to 8 DI wins, opening a spot. Same with Mercer, Idaho, etc. I still have a tough time taking a 9-2 Fordham who hasn't beat anyone over a 7-4 UND who has numerous decent-to-good wins.

I also don't think all the teams above in the CAA are going to get to 8 DI wins. Rhode Island against UNH is an elimination game next week, and if Delaware [hosting] beats Richmond this weekend, they're probably playing for their playoff lives against William and Mary. Meanwhile, if Elon finishes 6-2 in the CAA, if they're the outright 3rd place winner then UNH may get the CAA title.

A lot of things up in the air there.

Can't ignore the fact that UTM does not play SEMO, too, and both are undefeated in conference.

I’m thinking Richmond will be the best team left out of the playoffs

[WrenFGun]

I’m thinking Richmond will be the best team left out of the playoffs

They're in a brutal spot, especially as Udinske pulled up lame at the end of the game against UNH.

There's no other way to put it other than the unbalanced CAA schedule is garbage. Richmond missed Albany, Towson and Monmouth, three games they'd certainly have been heavily favored to win.

Delaware is also in a rough spot though if they lose to Richmond. Have to go to Villanova in a game they regularly lose.

[Chalupa Batman]

The Field

So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds the last 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Sac St (11-0), Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Montana (8-3)
CAA: 4 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 1 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)

The other 6 autos:
OVC: SEMO (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (11-0)
ASUN/WAC: UCA (6-5) or ACU (7-4)
Big South: Gardner-Webb (6-5)
NEC: St Francis (9-2)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Sac St (11-0) Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), Chattanooga (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0) - first two out of the seeds: William & Mary (9-2), Mercer (9-2)

On the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: UC Davis (5-6), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (5-6), UND (7-4), YSU (6-5), Illinois St (6-5), SIU (6-5), UT-Martin (7-4), Northwestern St (4-7), Fordham (9-2), EKU (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4) or UCA (6-5), NC A&T (7-4), SFA (5-6)

Last 4 in (in no particular order): Montana (8-3), UNH (8-3), Furman (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Rhode Island (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (9-2), Austin Peay (7-4)

The bubble still looks tough this year but there's still a lot to be decided in the last 2 week - each upset (which are bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.


What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

I’ll take a stab at it given the results you’ve projected and the field you’ve selected (you have 9 seeds listed BTW).


Not projecting home/away teams in the 1st rounds just matchups. Anyway, here is my field that is sure to make everyone happy!!

Furman/Davidson @ #1 Sacramento State
Weber State/Idaho @ #8 Montana State

Abilene Christian/Montana @ #4 Incarnate Word
William & Mary/St. Francis @ #5 Richmond

Southeastern Louisiana/Central Arkansas @ #3 North Dakota State
Delaware/New Hampshire @ #6 Holy Cross

Gardner-Webb/Samford @ #2 South Dakota State
Mercer/Elon @ #7 Chattanooga


If you have any complaints please see the head of my complaint department:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221106/617eb1a7d518421e4de7be6726608166.gif

[caribbeanhen]

They're in a brutal spot, especially as Udinske pulled up lame at the end of the game against UNH.

There's no other way to put it other than the unbalanced CAA schedule is garbage. Richmond missed Albany, Towson and Monmouth, three games they'd certainly have been heavily favored to win.

Delaware is also in a rough spot though if they lose to Richmond. Have to go to Villanova in a game they regularly lose.

Yes, QB Udenski was taking some big hits in first half, didn’t get too see much of second half but my guess would be Santos said the heck with the run game let’s wing it... dumb call to go for it from his own 19 on 4Th and 1 .... like wow.its only the beginning of the 2nd Q .. and got stuffed and Richmond kicked a FG...

[BeamMeUp]

Quite the run by Youngstown State after the heartbreaking 5 point loss at home to UND. Since then the Penguins have won 4 in a row, and the last two weeks have shown signs of maturity from the players on up to the coaches. After YSU upset Missouri State last year at Stambaugh, I am sure the Bears would like nothing more than to return the favor. Let's Go Penguins!

[caribbeanhen]

I’ll take a stab at it given the results you’ve projected and the field you’ve selected (you have 9 seeds listed BTW).


Not projecting home/away teams in the 1st rounds just matchups. Anyway, here is my field that is sure to make everyone happy!!

Furman/Davidson @ #1 Sacramento State
Weber State/Idaho @ #8 Montana State

Abilene Christian/Montana @ #4 Incarnate Word
William & Mary/St. Francis @ #5 Richmond

Southeastern Louisiana/Central Arkansas @ #3 North Dakota State
Delaware/New Hampshire @ #6 Holy Cross

Gardner-Webb/Samford @ #2 South Dakota State
Mercer/Elon @ #7 Chattanooga


If you have any complaints please see the head of my complaint department:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221106/617eb1a7d518421e4de7be6726608166.gif

and the line is long

[Professor Chaos]

I’ll take a stab at it given the results you’ve projected and the field you’ve selected (you have 9 seeds listed BTW).


Not projecting home/away teams in the 1st rounds just matchups. Anyway, here is my field that is sure to make everyone happy!!

Furman/Davidson @ #1 Sacramento State
Weber State/Idaho @ #8 Montana State

Abilene Christian/Montana @ #4 Incarnate Word
William & Mary/St. Francis @ #5 Richmond

Southeastern Louisiana/Central Arkansas @ #3 North Dakota State
Delaware/New Hampshire @ #6 Holy Cross

Gardner-Webb/Samford @ #2 South Dakota State
Mercer/Elon @ #7 Chattanooga


If you have any complaints please see the head of my complaint department:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221106/617eb1a7d518421e4de7be6726608166.gif
Nice work!

Although if this happens prepare for the wrath of whiny Bison fans who say the committee always puts them on the same side of the bracket as SDSU even though they've been on opposite sides more often than not since 2013.

[Mocs123]

I’ll take a stab at it given the results you’ve projected and the field you’ve selected (you have 9 seeds listed BTW).


Not projecting home/away teams in the 1st rounds just matchups. Anyway, here is my field that is sure to make everyone happy!!

Furman/Davidson @ #1 Sacramento State
Weber State/Idaho @ #8 Montana State

Abilene Christian/Montana @ #4 Incarnate Word
William & Mary/St. Francis @ #5 Richmond

Southeastern Louisiana/Central Arkansas @ #3 North Dakota State
Delaware/New Hampshire @ #6 Holy Cross

Gardner-Webb/Samford @ #2 South Dakota State
Mercer/Elon @ #7 Chattanooga


If you have any complaints please see the head of my complaint department:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221106/617eb1a7d518421e4de7be6726608166.gif

I'd say surely the Selection Committe wouldn't have a SoCon rematch of Mercer/Chattanooga week 2 of the playoffs.......but they probably would.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I agree but afraid they will saddle up the Mule and bring in Francis

.......MERRIMACK IS STANDIN' IN DEY'RE WAY......AWK!

[Chalupa Batman]

Nice work!

Although if this happens prepare for the wrath of whiny Bison fans who say the committee always puts them on the same side of the bracket as SDSU even though they've been on opposite sides more often than not since 2013.

Yeah, with two sides of the bracket you’d think that NDSU & SDSU would get put on the same side of the bracket about 50% of the time. Funny how 50% of the time Bison fans complain that we’re on the same side of the bracket and 50% of the time it’s “surprised the committee didn’t put us on the same side.”

Though if there is any year NDSU would want to be on the same side it’s this year. Given the ever increasing likelihood that the Bison will have to play a road game to get to Frisco, what better draw would there be then a short road trip to a team that isn’t going to sellout and leave plenty of tickets for Bison fans?



I'd say surely the Selection Committe wouldn't have a SoCon rematch of Mercer/Chattanooga week 2 of the playoffs.......but they probably would.

Rematches (or the potential for them) in the 2nd round are fairly common. Just last season NDSU could’ve played South Dakota two games in a row having played them in the season finale and then getting the winner of SIU/USD in the 2nd round.

[MR. CHICKEN]

They're in a brutal spot, especially as Udinske pulled up lame at the end of the game against UNH.

There's no other way to put it other than the unbalanced CAA schedule is garbage. Richmond missed Albany, Towson and Monmouth, three games they'd certainly have been heavily favored to win.

Delaware is also in a rough spot though if they lose to Richmond. Have to go to Villanova in a game they regularly lose.

....WHAT'S YER IDEAR.....UH LAME..?..PUT HIM DOWN...LIKE UH PONY....?...CARTED OFF..?.HELPED OFF...?...LIMPED OFF....?...WALKED OFF...?.....JOGGED OFF...?......AWK?

[FUBeAR]

I'd say surely the Selection Committe wouldn't have a SoCon rematch of Mercer/Chattanooga week 2 of the playoffs.......but they probably would.
Yep - they absolutely would (and have…more than a few times).

What’s wrong? You skeered Mercer wouldn’t spot y’all 10 points, before the cheerleaders get their sweats off, again?

[Mocs123]

Yep - they absolutely would (and have…more than a few times).

What’s wrong? You skeered Mercer wouldn’t spot y’all 10 points, before the cheerleaders get their sweats off, again?

Mercer might not provide us two forced turnovers that led to 10 points before the cheerleaders get their sweats off if we play them again. But we beat the Bears by 20, so in that case it might be 31-21 Mocs. xnodx

I just would prefer for SoCon schools to not have to eliminate each other in the playoffs. Though I'd take the scenario as proposed with the Mocs ending 9-2 and the SoCon getting four teams in the playoffs any day.

[UNHWildcat18]

Love the effort and agree with almost all of the teams chosen.

however I think Mercer drops their last 2. So socon only gets 3 teams in and another at large goes to a bubble team

[Mocs123]

Love the effort and agree with almost all of the teams chosen.

however I think Mercer drops their last 2. So socon only gets 3 teams in and another at large goes to a bubble team

You could be right as Furman and Samford are both good playoff worthy opponents, but the Bears are pretty good. I think there is a much higher likelihood the Bears split their last two.

[FUBeAR]

Love the effort and agree with almost all of the teams chosen.

however I think Mercer drops their last 2. So socon only gets 3 teams in and another at large goes to a bubble team
You spelled “hope” wrong

[FUBeAR]

Mercer might not provide us two forced turnovers that led to 10 points before the cheerleaders get their sweats off if we play them again. But we beat the Bears by 20, so in that case it might be 31-21 Mocs. xnodx

I just would prefer for SoCon schools to not have to eliminate each other in the playoffs. Though I'd take the scenario as proposed with the Mocs ending 9-2 and the SoCon getting four teams in the playoffs any day.The fumble on the opening kickoff was forced.

The pick 6 on the next possession was not “forced.” Mental error by WR. Ran a 9 (Go) route vs. an 11 yard cushion CB. QB was expecting him to run a 5 (Out) route. FUBeAR knows what Coach Wright said about being in Squat and what your media mouthpiece said about a “disguised coverage.” It was not disguised and being in Squat had nothing to do with the pick. WR ran the wrong route.

Don’t really care. Just tryin’ to help a fantasy-impaired fan base understand the game…after claiming NONE of the 5 turnovers Mercer ACTUALLY forced in 2021 were forced. “We beat ourselves” LOL!!

[crusader11]

The fumble on the opening kickoff was forced.

The pick 6 on the next possession was not “forced.” Mental error by WR. Ran a 9 (Go) route vs. an 11 yard cushion CB. QB was expecting him to run a 5 (Out) route. FUBeAR knows what Coach Wright said about being in Squat and what your media mouthpiece said about a “disguised coverage.” It was not disguised and being in Squat had nothing to do with the pick. WR ran the wrong route.

Don’t really care. Just tryin’ to help a fantasy-impaired fan base understand the game…after claiming NONE of the 5 turnovers Mercer ACTUALLY forced in 2021 were forced. “We beat ourselves” LOL!!

You still trying to rationalize Mercer getting doubled up by Nooga?

[FUBeAR]

You still trying to rationalize Mercer getting doubled up by Nooga?
Are you still unable to rationalize paying for remedial reading comprehension courses?

…and your math needs some polish as well

[VandalBasher]

The Vandals are playing week to week like an alcoholic in recovery.

UC Davis is a really good team that played a really difficult schedule. Their losses are to CAL, South Dakota State, Weber and Montana St.

If the Vandals can handle this Aggie team and go into Holt Arena and play the Bengals well, Idaho will have surpassed all expectations and reached the playoffs for the first time since 1995 loss to McNeese.



November 25
5:00 pm
at No. 1 McNeese State (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNeese_State_Cowboys_football)*
No. 17


Cowboy Stadium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowboy_Stadium)
Lake Charles, Louisiana (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Charles,_Louisiana) (Division I-AA First Round (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_NCAA_Division_I-AA_football_season#Postseason))


L 3–33
15,736
[15] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Idaho_Vandals_football_team#cite_note-rootn-15)[16] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Idaho_Vandals_football_team#cite_note-gtrbta-16)[17] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Idaho_Vandals_football_team#cite_note-rpodagn-17)

[ElCid]

I'd say surely the Selection Committe wouldn't have a SoCon rematch of Mercer/Chattanooga week 2 of the playoffs.......but they probably would.

Why. They've done it lots of times. Look at 2016 for prime example. As long as regionalization is thing, no reason to doubt it will change, it will continue to happen.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Why. They've done it lots of times. Look at 2016 for prime example. As long as regionalization is thing, no reason to doubt it will change, it will continue to happen.


.....THAT'S...NOT JES'..UH SOGONE THING.....IT HAPPENS TA ALL OF US.........BRAWK!

[grizband]

Why. They've done it lots of times. Look at 2016 for prime example. As long as regionalization is thing, no reason to doubt it will change, it will continue to happen.
Montana matched up against EWU in the second round last year, at least the second time that's happened in the past decade. I can also think of at least two more Griz playoff matchups in the past 20 years that were regular season rematches. The likelihood of this happening only increases with a larger playoff field (16 vs 20 vs 24).

[taper]

It should be noted that Fordham earned at-large bids in 2013 and 2015 and were either the first or second team left out in 2016. While the PL has traditionally been a one bid league there is precedent for at-large bids over its history; even dating back to a 16 team field. With that said, Lehigh being left out in 2012 with a 10-1 record was egregious. To force a team to go undefeated in their league 3 straight years who had built up national credibility was an insane threshold to hold Lehigh to.

I am confident Fordham will get in at 9-2. They could be an attractive team for an ESPN broadcast....

For all that is holy, oh H no. The PL in 2012 was absolutely awful. South Dakota was 1-10, but their single win was Colgate, the PL champ. Colgate went on to lose to a freaking NEC team in the playoffs. Literally the entire MVFC should have gotten in before a PL at large. Start playing outside your bubble before saying you deserve something.

[crusader11]

For all that is holy, oh H no. The PL in 2012 was absolutely awful. South Dakota was 1-10, but their single win was Colgate, the PL champ. Colgate went on to lose to a freaking NEC team in the playoffs. Literally the entire MVFC should have gotten in before a PL at large. Start playing outside your bubble before saying you deserve something.

Is it possible programs in a league can change over ten years or no?

Probably would be more accurate to look at HC and Fordham performance in 2022 than what Colgate did in 2012. Just my .02.

Holy Cross has the best freaking FBS win by any FCS team this year. That’s outside of the bubble.

Edit: I just realized your post was commenting more on Lehigh in 2012 than the PL in 2022. At least I think, right?

[caribbeanhen]

.......MERRIMACK IS STANDIN' IN DEY'RE WAY......AWK!

St Francis is in Mr C

Merrimack apparently not eligible yet

[MR. CHICKEN]

St Francis is in Mr C

Merrimack apparently not eligible yet


OKAY...FO'GOT DAT....AH'M SLIPPIN' SOME...xembarrassedx....AWK!

[caribbeanhen]

OKAY...FO'GOT DAT....AH'M SLIPPIN' SOME...xembarrassedx....AWK!

You still have the magic good Sir, keepin the kiddies in line here every day and it is joyous to watch

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

For all that is holy, oh H no. The PL in 2012 was absolutely awful. South Dakota was 1-10, but their single win was Colgate, the PL champ. Colgate went on to lose to a freaking NEC team in the playoffs. Literally the entire MVFC should have gotten in before a PL at large. Start playing outside your bubble before saying you deserve something.

The point being Lehigh and Colgate have been long standing league rivals. That was also Biddle's last season during which he squeezed every bit of potential out of that team to reach 8 wins. The crowning achievement was outplaying Lehigh in the second half to end the Mountain Hawks long winning regular season winning streak. At some point a team should not be punished because the law of averages hits you with a ONE loss against an 8 win team led by a future College HOF coach.

The reason I say that is because my point revolved around Fordham having built up some national equity over the years. In reality, they've been a respectable, dare I say good(?) program since Clawson really got things going in 2001. Some bad years but every private institution endures them....

[Professor Chaos]

The point being Lehigh and Colgate have been long standing league rivals. That was also Biddle's last season during which he squeezed every bit of potential out of that team to reach 8 wins. The crowning achievement was outplaying Lehigh in the second half to end the Mountain Hawks long winning regular season winning streak. At some point a team should not be punished because the law of averages hits you with a ONE loss against an 8 win team led by a future College HOF coach.

The reason I say that is because my point revolved around Fordham having built up some national equity over the years. In reality, they've been a respectable, dare I say good(?) program since Clawson really got things going in 2001. Some bad years but every private institution endures them....
The thing I end up on with Fordham is if you give them credit for close losses to Fordham and Ohio don't you also have to ding them for close wins against Monmouth and Albany? Fordham's SOS (according to Massey) is 81st which is worse than any team in the playoff conversation. The Patriot League has been so poor over the last few years it's hard to tell if Fordham really is a good team (like Holy Cross has proven to be in the playoffs) or if they're just taking advantage of a league full of sub-standard teams.

With last year's bubble I think Fordham would get in at 9-2 (kind of like Florida A&M did) but this year it's shaping up to be awfullly competitive for those final few spots and it's tough for Fordham's resume to hang with 7 or 8 win teams from the Big Sky/CAA/MVFC/SOCON.

[crusader11]

Do we think that UNH v. URI is a "loser goes home" game?

I've come around on UNH and think they're a good team after watching them in recent weeks, but if they were to lose to URI and beat Maine, at 7-4 with a loss to NC Central and only one win over a playoff team (Elon), I can't see them getting in.

URI would have almost an identical resume to UNH, assuming they were to lose this weekend and beat Albany the following weekend: 7-4 with their only noteworthy win coming against Elon.

Think I've convinced myself that the playoffs start this week for both of these teams.

---

Another really juicy game is Furman - Mercer. As of now, both teams look pretty good at 7-2. Even if Furman loses this weekend, they should beat Wofford in their final game to get to 8-3 -- IN. Mercer, if they were to lose this week, ends their season at Samford (who will be likely playing for a seed). If they drop these two games, they're OUT. Just don't have enough good wins, IMO.

---

Idaho - UC Davis a critical game out west. Davis is clinging onto dear hope and if they win out (final two games at Idaho and at Sac St), they'd have won six straight games to end the season and I think they'd be in. Idaho is an interesting study. Definitely a legitimate top 10-15 team, but if they lose to Davis and then beat Idaho State to end the year, they'd find themselves at 7-4. I think they'd be sweating on selection day. They'd have one win against a team with better than a .500 record, despite two close losses to Wazzu and Indiana.

[Professor Chaos]

Do we think that UNH v. URI is a "loser goes home" game?

I've come around on UNH and think they're a good team after watching them in recent weeks, but if they were to lose to URI and beat Maine, at 7-4 with a loss to NC Central and only one win over a playoff team (Elon), I can't see them getting in.

URI would have almost an identical resume to UNH, assuming they were to lose this weekend and beat Albany the following weekend: 7-4 with their only noteworthy win coming against Elon.

Think I've convinced myself that the playoffs start this week for both of these teams.

Yeah, the loser of that game is going to have a hard time finding their way into the field I think since they'd have to be the 5th (or even 6th - yikes) CAA team into the field and I don't think the bubble will be weak enough to justify that.

[Professor Chaos]

Next week will be chock full of impactful games in terms of playoff positioning. In the CAA there's Richmond @ Delaware, Rhode Island @ UNH, and Villanova @ William & Mary. In the MVFC there's Illinois St @ SDSU and NDSU @ SIU. In the SOCON there's Samford @ Chattanooga and Furman @ Mercer. Even the Big Sky has another one with UC Davis @ Idaho.

Separation Saturday.

[ksu_owls]

We've played pretty poorly this year, but it was nice to get a decent win this weekend over what I assume is an over ranked UT Martin.

If the owls beat Austin P and EKU... dare I ask, should we be considered for an at large??

[kab]

I’ll take a stab at it given the results you’ve projected and the field you’ve selected (you have 9 seeds listed BTW).


Not projecting home/away teams in the 1st rounds just matchups. Anyway, here is my field that is sure to make everyone happy!!

Furman/Davidson @ #1 Sacramento State
Weber State/Idaho @ #8 Montana State

Abilene Christian/Montana @ #4 Incarnate Word
William & Mary/St. Francis @ #5 Richmond

Southeastern Louisiana/Central Arkansas @ #3 North Dakota State
Delaware/New Hampshire @ #6 Holy Cross

Gardner-Webb/Samford @ #2 South Dakota State
Mercer/Elon @ #7 Chattanooga


If you have any complaints please see the head of my complaint department:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221106/617eb1a7d518421e4de7be6726608166.gif
You have 5 big sky teams and 2 mvfc teams
that ain’t going to happen and Montana won’t make the playoffs

[NY Crusader 2010]

I'm in the camp that sees UNH-URI as a very likely elimination game.

[Professor Chaos]

We've played pretty poorly this year, but it was nice to get a decent win this weekend over what I assume is an over ranked UT Martin.

If the owls beat Austin P and EKU... dare I ask, should we be considered for an at large??
My xtwocentsx is it's possible but they'd be at the mercy of teams from the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON needing them to lose some games they should win. The good news is that would take EKU and APSU off the bubble most likely (or at least put KSU in front of them) so there would be less competition there. I'd say KSU needs to win out and hope for 3-4 upsets in those previously mentioned leagues from teams on the bubble to teams out of contention in the last couple weeks.


You have 5 big sky teams and 2 mvfc teams
that ain’t going to happen and Montana won’t make the playoffs
I'll take credit for that since I think CB just used who I had projected as making it in and put a bracket together. Like I mentioned I'm using Massey's odds to project the winners and he actually favors Montana to beat Montana St in Bozeman. If that happens Montana is definitely in (even if they would lose to EWU this week) but at 7-4 with a loss in the brawl I think Montana would be on very shaky ground and might need some help to get in.

Going by Massey's projections there will be 5 teams in the CAA and Big Sky with 8 or more wins and 4 more from the SOCON. That's really going to put a squeeze on the at-large pool if that happens leaving only 2 left... if the #3 team in the MVFC is 7-4 in that scenario I don't think it's that crazy that they only get 2 teams in.

[ksu_owls]

My xtwocentsx is it's possible but they'd be at the mercy of teams from the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON needing them to lose some games they should win. The good news is that would take EKU and APSU off the bubble most likely (or at least put KSU in front of them) so there would be less competition there. I'd say KSU needs to win out and hope for 3-4 upsets in those previously mentioned leagues from teams on the bubble to teams out of contention in the last couple weeks.

I'd fully understand us winning out and NOT getting an at large, but I will be on here to argue about it if it happens ;)

- - - Updated - - -


My xtwocentsx is it's possible but they'd be at the mercy of teams from the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON needing them to lose some games they should win. The good news is that would take EKU and APSU off the bubble most likely (or at least put KSU in front of them) so there would be less competition there. I'd say KSU needs to win out and hope for 3-4 upsets in those previously mentioned leagues from teams on the bubble to teams out of contention in the last couple weeks.

I'd fully understand us winning out and NOT getting an at large, but I will be on here to argue about it if it happens ;)

[BurialGround]

My xtwocentsx is it's possible but they'd be at the mercy of teams from the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON needing them to lose some games they should win. The good news is that would take EKU and APSU off the bubble most likely (or at least put KSU in front of them) so there would be less competition there. I'd say KSU needs to win out and hope for 3-4 upsets in those previously mentioned leagues from teams on the bubble to teams out of contention in the last couple weeks.

We'd need a lot of upsets, to the point that it's not even worth thinking about, honestly. We just need to focus on the opponent in front of us and finishing the season strong. I think we'd be on the bubble if we win out, but I really don't see any way we realistically make it in. Too many close games against bad teams, and that 27 point drubbing at home to CAU just doesn't look good for a playoff hopeful. And that's assuming we get past both Peay and EKU on the road. If we win just one of the last two, then this season won't be nearly the disappointment it looked like it would be, especially considering how much the last-second rule changes to cut-blocking ruined our offense.

[ksu_owls]

We'd need a lot of upsets, to the point that it's not even worth thinking about, honestly. We just need to focus on the opponent in front of us and finishing the season strong. I think we'd be on the bubble if we win out, but I really don't see any way we realistically make it in. Too many close games against bad teams, and that 27 point drubbing at home to CAU just doesn't look good for a playoff hopeful. And that's assuming we get past both Peay and EKU on the road. If we win just one of the last two, then this season won't be nearly the disappointment it looked like it would be, especially considering how much the last-second rule changes to cut-blocking ruined our offense.

I agree the blocking changes took us a while to figure out, but Saturday's offense looked much better. I'm excited to see what we do in our last two games!

[ming01]

My Bracket based off how the season will end. The bubble is small this year. There's going to be some good teams left out. I mean, I had UND 7-4 and Montana 8-3 (Need that MSU win) as the last two in. Had to make the tough choices.

Abilene Christian at SE Louisiana
@ 1 Sacramento State

UNH at William and Mary
@ 8 Richmond

Davidson at Mercer
@ 5 Samford

Weber State at Idaho
@ 4 Montana State

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Gardner-Webb at Furman
@ 6 Elon

St Francis at Delaware
@ 7 Holy Cross

UT Martin at CHattanooga
@ 2 SDSU

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.

[FUBeAR]

My Bracket based off how the season will end. The bubble is small this year. There's going to be some good teams left out. I mean, I had UND 7-4 and Montana 8-3 (Need that MSU win) as the last two in. Had to make the tough choices.

Abilene Christian at SE Louisiana
@ 1 Sacramento State

UNH at William and Mary
@ 8 Richmond

Davidson at Mercer
@ 5 Samford

Weber State at Idaho
@ 4 Montana State

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Gardner-Webb at Furman
@ 6 Elon

St Francis at Delaware
@ 7 Holy Cross

UT Martin at CHattanooga
@ 2 SDSU

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.
From your keyboard to the screens of the Football Gods!!

Seeing this bracket made FUBeAR tear up a little bit.

Not at all buying E*Loan as the 6 seed, but Furman will curb stomp the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians in Round 2, so FUBeAR is good with it.

[UNHWildcat18]

My Bracket based off how the season will end. The bubble is small this year. There's going to be some good teams left out. I mean, I had UND 7-4 and Montana 8-3 (Need that MSU win) as the last two in. Had to make the tough choices.

Abilene Christian at SE Louisiana
@ 1 Sacramento State

UNH at William and Mary
@ 8 Richmond

Davidson at Mercer
@ 5 Samford

Weber State at Idaho
@ 4 Montana State

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Gardner-Webb at Furman
@ 6 Elon

St Francis at Delaware
@ 7 Holy Cross

UT Martin at CHattanooga
@ 2 SDSU

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.

The regionalization you have is ridiculous, I pray the Committee spreads it out more.

[SpreadTheWord]

My Bracket based off how the season will end. The bubble is small this year. There's going to be some good teams left out. I mean, I had UND 7-4 and Montana 8-3 (Need that MSU win) as the last two in. Had to make the tough choices.

Abilene Christian at SE Louisiana
@ 1 Sacramento State

UNH at William and Mary
@ 8 Richmond

Davidson at Mercer
@ 5 Samford

Weber State at Idaho
@ 4 Montana State

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Gardner-Webb at Furman
@ 6 Elon

St Francis at Delaware
@ 7 Holy Cross

UT Martin at CHattanooga
@ 2 SDSU

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.

Yeah...UIW is going to be in.

[Professor Chaos]

My Bracket based off how the season will end. The bubble is small this year. There's going to be some good teams left out. I mean, I had UND 7-4 and Montana 8-3 (Need that MSU win) as the last two in. Had to make the tough choices.

Abilene Christian at SE Louisiana
@ 1 Sacramento State

UNH at William and Mary
@ 8 Richmond

Davidson at Mercer
@ 5 Samford

Weber State at Idaho
@ 4 Montana State

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Gardner-Webb at Furman
@ 6 Elon

St Francis at Delaware
@ 7 Holy Cross

UT Martin at CHattanooga
@ 2 SDSU

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.
UIW out altogether??? That's bold even if they would lose to Northwestern St - I think they're already locked in (and will be seeded if they finish 10-1). They did stomp SIU who UND lost to pretty handily.

[crusader11]

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.

It's not a question whether UIW is going to be in the playoffs (they are), it's just a question if they're seeded.

[SpreadTheWord]

It's not a question whether UIW is going to be in the playoffs (they are), it's just a question if they're seeded.

I think if they dominate Northwestern State on the road they're pretty deserving of a seed. If they barely get by them then I think it'll be a tossup. They have two weeks to prepare for them so I'm hoping they'll take care of business on Nov. 19.

[Professor Chaos]

I think if they dominate Northwestern State on the road they're pretty deserving of a seed. If they barely get by them then I think it'll be a tossup. They have two weeks to prepare for them so I'm hoping they'll take care of business on Nov. 19.
Not sure how much that Northwestern St game will matter unless NWSU beats SLU this week. If that doesn't happen I don't think UIW can gain much even with a convincing win.

[WestCoastAggie]

I love this as it sleeps on A&T.

[Professor Chaos]

I love this as it sleeps on A&T.
I'd love for A&T to win the Big South - NDSU needs all the help it can get for quality wins this season. xpeacex

Massey sure seems to love Gardner-Webb though giving them a 64% chance to beat A&T in the de facto Big South championship game.

[WestCoastAggie]

I'd love for A&T to win the Big South - NDSU needs all the help it can get for quality wins this season. xpeacex

Massey sure seems to love Gardner-Webb though giving them a 64% chance to beat A&T in the de facto Big South championship game.
They haven’t given us love there in a while.

We will play much better than we did in 2021 where we just collapsed in the 4th quarter.

[FUBeAR]

I'd love for A&T to win the Big South - NDSU needs all the help it can get for quality wins this season. xpeacex

Massey sure seems to love Gardner-Webb though giving them a 64% chance to beat A&T in the de facto Big South championship game.
Massey has good reason to love Gardner-Webb.

The Runnin’ Bulldogs very nearly cut 2 8-1 FBS Teams along with everyone’s CAA-darling, Elon. And, they fared reasonably well against a 3rd FBS Team that beat Notre Dame.

Sure, Mercer blew them out 45-14, but that’s to be expected vs. a Top 8 FCS Team.

[Milktruck74]

Massey is interesting. It is a pretty good algorithm, but sometimes leaves me scratching my head a bit. This week, the Mocs beat #58 by 10 points on the road and slipped 4 spots in the rankings...Sammy beat #99 by 19 at home and held at the same spot. Maybe I'm wrong, but is 31 spots and home field advantage not worth 9 points in the algorithm? I guess not...

[Chalupa Batman]

You have 5 big sky teams and 2 mvfc teams
that ain’t going to happen and Montana won’t make the playoffs

As PC said I was using his Massey projections and Montana wins the brawl there so they would be a lock at 8-3. Personally I don't think they'll win that game and they will be on the bubble at 7-4, along with a host of other 7-4 teams from the MVFC & CAA.


My Bracket based off how the season will end. The bubble is small this year. There's going to be some good teams left out. I mean, I had UND 7-4 and Montana 8-3 (Need that MSU win) as the last two in. Had to make the tough choices.

Abilene Christian at SE Louisiana
@ 1 Sacramento State

UNH at William and Mary
@ 8 Richmond

Davidson at Mercer
@ 5 Samford

Weber State at Idaho
@ 4 Montana State

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Gardner-Webb at Furman
@ 6 Elon

St Francis at Delaware
@ 7 Holy Cross

UT Martin at CHattanooga
@ 2 SDSU

Notes:
I chose Elon over W&M as a seed due to Elon having some really good wins on resume. I wanted to fit Fordham and Incarnate Word in but just couldnt do it over UND and Montana both playing in the much better conferences. The committee seemed to favor Non-Con schedules and wins over Playoff teams last season.

Um, yeah Incarnate Word is going to be in the playoffs. I also see you don't have SEMO in the field, do you think they'll lose one of their last 2 games or that they won't make the field if they win out and UT-Martin wins the tiebreaker? I think the Redhawks would be pretty well locked in if they win out and UTM gets the autobid.


Speaking of SEMO & UTM, does anyone else think this coin-flip in the OVC will be witnessed by anybody? Or will the OVC just come out and announce that UTM won it in the hope that they can get 2 bids?xcoffeex

[Professor Chaos]

Massey has good reason to love Gardner-Webb.

The Runnin’ Bulldogs very nearly cut 2 8-1 FBS Teams along with everyone’s CAA-darling, Elon. And, they fared reasonably well against a 3rd FBS Team that beat Notre Dame.

Sure, Mercer blew them out, but that’s to be expected vs. a Top 8 FCS Team.
We'll see. Gardner-Webb's 3 D1 wins (RMU, CSU, and Bryant) have a total of two D1 wins outside of the games they played against each other (Bryant with a 31-29 win over LIU and a 43-37 win over Campbell). That's the problem when you're in a weak conference and then play 3 FBS games and a D2 OOC though.... Gardner-Webb is still an unknown for most of us.

[NY Crusader 2010]

We'll see. Gardner-Webb's 3 D1 wins (RMU, CSU, and Bryant) have a total of two D1 wins outside of the games they played against each other (Bryant with a 31-29 win over LIU and a 43-37 win over Campbell). That's the problem when you're in a weak conference and then play 3 FBS games and a D2 OOC though.... Gardner-Webb is still an unknown for most of us.

Regardless of who they scheduled, it's pretty clear they have a good team. When you lose to a Top 25 FBS team by a point and play close to two other very good G5 programs, you're a good FCS team. I might not yet have them ranked but they'd be on the bubble. Hurts that the only two true FCS tests they've had, they lost a close one to Elon and got boat-raced by Mercer.

[FUBeAR]

Regardless of who they scheduled, it's pretty clear they have a good team. When you lose to a Top 25 FBS team by a point and play close to two other very good G5 programs, you're a good FCS team. I might not yet have them ranked but they'd be on the bubble. Hurts that the only two true FCS tests they've had, they lost a close one to Elon and got boat-raced by Mercer.
Nope - it’s hard for some people to see through the MyTeam/MyConference Agenda scales they have covering their biased eyes.

[caribbeanhen]

Nope - it’s hard for some people to see through the MyTeam/MyConference Agenda scales they have covering their biased eyes.

Shes got Biased Davis eyes

[WestCoastAggie]

Massey has good reason to love Gardner-Webb.

The Runnin’ Bulldogs very nearly cut 2 8-1 FBS Teams along with everyone’s CAA-darling, Elon. And, they fared reasonably well against a 3rd FBS Team that beat Notre Dame.

Sure, Mercer blew them out 45-14, but that’s to be expected vs. a Top 8 FCS Team.

They’re underrated for certain. However, giving the Aggies a 35% chance of winning is odd.

[ElonFirefighter]

From your keyboard to the screens of the Football Gods!!

Seeing this bracket made FUBeAR tear up a little bit.

Not at all buying E*Loan as the 6 seed, but Furman will curb stomp the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians in Round 2, so FUBeAR is good with it.

Not saying we will be seeded but just saying

2017
Sep 9 (Sat)1:00 p.m.

at Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
Greenville, S.C.


W, 34-31


2018
Sep 8 (Sat) 6:00 p.m.


vs #21 Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)

Elon Rank: #15
Elon, N.C.


W, 45-7

[FUBeAR]

Not saying we will be seeded but just saying

2017 Sep 9 (Sat)
2018 Sep 8 (Sat)
Thought we were talking Playoffs…

FURMAN (8-4) -VS- ELON (8-4)



Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


Furman
0
14
7
7
28


Elon
7
0
14
6
27


DATE: 11/25/2017 SITE: Elon, N.C. STADIUM: Rhodes Stadium

[ElonFirefighter]

Thought we were talking Playoffs…

FURMAN (8-4) -VS- ELON (8-4)



Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total


Furman
0
14
7
7
28


Elon
7
0
14
6
27


DATE: 11/25/2017 SITE: Elon, N.C. STADIUM: Rhodes Stadium

Just poking the Bear. In all seriousness, if we are home I think this year we are unstoppable. If we are away we probably choke like we have in past. If it makes you feel any better that blocked FG Loss in the playoffs was on my Birthday.

[ElCid]

Shes got Biased Davis eyes

Nice! Well done!

[kab]

Don’t worry, the committee will make a couple of eye rolling picks that don’t belong in the playoffs and give a few of the darling teams a higher seed than expected.
it’s all about the $$$$$$