Week 10 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

3 weeks to go until Selection Sunday and this is list of teams I have in playoff contention along with a few teams who I see as locking themselves in with wins yesterday. I attempted to handicap their odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining games. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
Sac St is a lock and Montana St and Weber St are virtually locks but after that it gets tricky. According to Massey Idaho has toss-ups the next two weeks and they'll need to at least split those to stay in the conversation and probably win both to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat. I feel like Montana is heading towards a very polarizing 7-4 resume unless they can beat the Bobcats in the brawl which would lock them in even if they're upset once in the next couple weeks. UC Davis is still in it but they'll probably have to sweep Idaho and Sac St on the road to get in which is a tall order indeed. I see the Big Sky with 3-5 bids so I'll split the difference and say 4 as of right now.

Locks
Sac St 8-0 (5-0) [2.02/0.98] - @Weber St (50%), @PSU (82%), UC Davis (70%)

Should be in
Montana St 7-1 (5-0) [2.15/0.85] - @NAU (77%), @Cal Poly (86%), Montana (52%)
Weber St 7-1 (5-1) [2.35/0.65] - Sac St (50%), Idaho St (98%), @NAU (87%)

Work left to do
Idaho 5-3 (4-1) [1.95/1.05] - EWU (61%), UC Davis (51%), @Idaho St (83%)
Montana 5-3 (2-3) [2.14/0.86] - Cal Poly (95%), EWU (72%), @Montana St (48%)

In the hunt
UC Davis 4-4 (3-2) [1.69/1.31] - Idaho St (91%), @Idaho (49%), @Sac St (30%)


CAA
If the CAA was a mess last week it's in utter chaos this week. W&M is looking good but after that it's anyone's guess. Massey like Richmond to win out which might even get them seeded with those impressive wins but I'm still skeptical they can do it. UNH could plausibly end up anywhere from 3-0 and 0-3 in their last 3 - would 7-4 (6-2) be good enough??? Elon's big win over Delaware has them sitting pretty with 3 quality wins and a pretty clear path to 8-3 but if they drop another one things will get dicey in a hurry. Delaware and Rhode Island are looking shaky as 7-4 (or worse) look like a real possibility for them which will put them firmly on the bubble and Nova is still lurking with a chance to throw a monkey wrench into things. I have no clue how this plays out but just based on the sheer number of teams still in contention I'm going to say the CAA gets 4 into the field.

Should be in
William & Mary 7-1 (4-1) [1.84/1.16] - @Hampton (86%), Nova (58%), @Richmond (41%)

Work left to do
Richmond 6-2 (4-1) [1.93/1.07] - UNH (77%), @Delaware (57%), William & Mary (59%)
New Hampshire 6-2 (5-0) [1.34/1.66] @Richmond (23%), URI (54%), @Maine (59%)
Elon 6-3 (4-2) [1.56/0.44] - Albany (69%), @Hampton (87%)
Delaware 6-2 (3-2) [1.46/1.54] - Monmouth (62%), Richmond (43%), @Nova (41%)
Rhode Island 5-3 (3-2) [1.73/1.27] - Maine (68%), @UNH (46%), Albany (59%)

In the hunt
Villanova 5-3 (3-2) [1.74/1.26] - @Towson (73%), @W&M (42%), Delaware (59%)


MVFC
Could the MVFC end up with only 2 playoff teams??? I think it's definitely within the realm of possibilities. SDSU is locked in and NDSU looks to be in pretty good shape - beyond that no one can feel very comfortable. 7-4 looks doable for Illinois St and UND if they win and lose the games the Massey odds say they will but neither would have a marquee win so they couldn't feel too comfortable. YSU has some margin for error but they'll need to win at least 2 of 3 and Massey sees them as underdogs in each of their last 3. SIU and UNI both probably need to win out which is going to be a tough task for either. I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 3 but 4 is also a decent possibility with 2 or 5 both being unlikely but possible.

Locks
SDSU 8-1 (6-0) [1.59/0.41] - @UNI (64%), Illinois St (92%)

Should be in
NDSU 6-2 (4-1) [2.39/0.61] - @WIU (92%), @SIU (65%), UND (78%)

Work left to do
Illinois St 5-3 (3-2) [1.43/1.57] - YSU (58%), @SDSU (8%), WIU (81%)
UND 5-3 (3-2) [1.55/1.45] - @Indiana St (68%), USD (60%), @NDSU (22%)
YSU 5-3 (3-2) [1.31/1.69] - @Illinois St (42%), @Missouri St (40%), SIU (39%)

In the hunt
SIU 5-4 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - NDSU (35%), @YSU (61%)
UNI 5-4 (3-2) [0.97/1.03] - SDSU (36%), @USD (58%)


SOCON
Chattanooga's loss to Furman yesterday was the SOCON's gain as it's looking like 4 playoff bids for the conference is a very strong possibility. Massey sets Samford, UTC, and Furman all with fairly clear paths to 8 wins which should lock any and all of them in. Mercer closes out with two tough ones but a win in either should lock them in. I'm seeing 4 bids for the SOCON but probably no seeds given how no team seems likely to separate themselves from the pack unless Samford wins out.

Should be in
Samford 7-1 (5-0) [1.69/1.31] - VMI (86%), @UTC (37%), Mercer (46%)
Chattanooga 6-2 (4-1) [2.30/0.70] - @Citadel (92%), Samford (63%), @WCU (75%)
Furman 7-2 (5-1) [1.21/0.79] - @Mercer (35%), Wofford (86%)

Work left to do
Mercer 7-2 (5-1) [1.19/0.81] - Furman (65%), @Samford (54%)


OVC and Southland
I think UIW locked themselves yesterday while SEMO didn't do themselves any favors but should still be fine if they take care of business as they should these last 3 weeks. SLU and UTM are both favored pretty heavily in their final 3 but if either drops one of them, UTM especially, I think they'd find themselves on the outside looking in. I'm still going to guess all 4 of these teams take care of business and make it in.

Locks
Incarnate Word 8-1 (3-1) [1.80/0.20] - HCU (94%), NWSU (86%)

Should be in
SEMO 6-2 (2-0) [2.45/0.55] - @TSU (77%), @EIU (79%), Murray St (89%)

Work left to do
SLU 5-3 (2-1) [2.46/0.54] - @Lamar (87%), NWSU (87%), @Nicholls (73%)
UT Martin 5-3 (3-0) [2.30/0.70] - KSU (70%), @TSU (76%), EIU (84%)


Others
There will probably be 3 autos (from the Patiot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they win out to get to 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross. I don't know how the WAC/ASUN auto will play out but with unexpected losses from both SFA and Austin Peay (by Massey's standards) I think it's pretty unlikely any team other than the auto gets in which includes EKU ,UCA, and ACU in the below group. NC A&T is in the driver's seat for the Big South auto and that looks like their only path to the playoffs but Massey favors Gardner-Webb in their last game which could derail them. NC Central continues to be an intersting wild card - despite SCSU's loss yeserday I still don't think NCCU is in line for the Celebration Bowl as the MEAC champ right now but if they win out to get to 9-2 with wins over UNH and NC A&T it would be tough to leave them our. Depending on what happens in the leagues listed above there may not be any at-large spots for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the autos.


Locks
Holy Cross 8-0 (4-0) [2.69/0.31] - Lehigh (96%), Bryant (84%), @Georgetown (89%)

Work left to do
Fordham 6-2 (3-1) [2.20/0.80] - @Bucknell (78%), Lafayette (73%), Colgate (70%)
EKU 5-3 (1-1) [1.50/1.50] - UCA (48%), @Jax St (40%), KSU (62%)

In the hunt
Austin Peay 5-3 (1-2) [1.27/1.73] - @UNA (68%), @KSU (58%), @Alabama (0%)
ACU 5-3 (2-0) [1.34/1.66] - @Tarleton St (60%), @SHSU (22%), SFA (52%)
NC Central 6-2 (2-1) [1.80/1.20] - Howard (64%), @Norfolk St (70%), @TTU (46%)
NC A&T 5-3 (3-0) [1.83/1.17] - Norfolk St (83%), CSU (63%), @Gardner-Webb (35%)
UCA 4-4 (3-0) [1.61/1.39] - @EKU (52%), @SFA (55%), Jax St (54%)
Campbell 4-4 (2-1) [1.97/1.03] - @Bryant (61%), Gardner-Webb (50%), @Delaware St (85%)
Stephen F Austin 5-4 (2-2) [0.93/1.07] - UCA (48%), @ACU (45%)



So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan the last 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Idaho (7-4)
CAA: 3 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 2 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
OVC: 1 - SEMO (9-2), UT Martin (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)
For the autos I have listed in the "others" category I've got Holy Cross (11-0) out of the Patriot, UCA (7-4) for the WAC/ASUN, and NC A&T (7-4) out of the Big South.

The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0)

On the outside looking in amonst the teams I've listed above: Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (7-4), Delaware (6-5), Illinois St (7-4), UNI (6-5), SIU (6-5), YSU (5-6), Fordham (9-2), EKU (6-5), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4), NC Central (8-3), Campbell (7-4), SFA (5-6)

Last 4 in (in no particular order): Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4), UT Martin (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Illinos St (7-4), Fordham (9-2)

The bubble looks tough this year but it usually seems to look tougher at this point in the season with 2-3 games left than it ends up being - each upset that happens in the last 3 weeks (which is bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.

I'm not going to take a crack at the bracket since this is all a whole lot of guessing even to put a projected field together


What do you think?

[WrenFGun]

SOCON: A few notes: Furman has a non-counter. I think they're in with a win over Wofford in the finale given the great win over Chattanooga, but don't discount that they'd be a 7 DI win team with a loss against Mercer. In general, the SoCon looks like a four bid league, but Mercer is out if they lose out, and it's very possible they could do so. They have a home one against Furman that's massive for pretty much the entire bubble [a win there probably ensures 4 teams from the SoCon] but they drop that game at home then they have a brutal finale.

MVFC: I think there's enough room on the bubble for a 7-4 team but jesus christ what a mess. SIU or UNI need to pull a massive home upset. UNI has beaten SIU but lost to ISU-r, but ISU-r lost to SIU. North Dakota can get to 7 DI wins even if they lost to ND State, but they .. lost to SIU. Youngstown State could get to 8-3 or lose all 3 remaining games. At 7-4 they've lost to North Dakota. [b]I think the absolute most likely scenario here is that North Dakota has a shot at 7-4, but SIU could have a shot if they upset South Dakota State and win out. I think they'll get 3 teams but I'm not sure who the third one is yet.

CAA: What an absolute friggin mess.I think WM and Elon should get to 8 DI wins, but I don't think either are the favorite to win the CAA title. UNH is favored in 2 of 3 and could win outright with a 7-1 CAA record even if they lose to Richmond. Delaware and Villanova might be for a playoff spot to end the year. and I don't know if Richmond can find a way to win 2 of 3. I think we could be looking at 5 8 win CAA teams, and I think they all get in if they do based on my read on the bubble.

NON-MAJOR-CONFERENCE: I'm not sure a 9 win Fordham team can sniff the playoffs over an 8 win team from a larger conference, but a 7 win team? Maybe? The resume isn't great. Same with a 9 win FAMU. If you are a bubble team, you should be rooting for Southeastern LA [just 1 FCS loss, with a win over Incarnate word] and UT-Martin [they'd at least tie for the OVC title if they win out] to drop a game. You should also be rooting for Furman to beat Mercer this weekend.

[Professor Chaos]

SOCON: A few notes: Furman has a non-counter. I think they're in with a win over Wofford in the finale given the great win over Chattanooga, but don't discount that they'd be a 7 DI win team with a loss against Mercer. In general, the SoCon looks like a four bid league, but Mercer is out if they lose out, and it's very possible they could do so. They have a home one against Furman that's massive for pretty much the entire bubble [a win there probably ensures 4 teams from the SoCon] but they drop that game at home then they have a brutal finale.

MVFC: I think there's enough room on the bubble for a 7-4 team but jesus christ what a mess. SIU or UNI need to pull a massive home upset. UNI has beaten SIU but lost to ISU-r, but ISU-r lost to SIU. North Dakota can get to 7 DI wins even if they lost to ND State, but they .. lost to SIU. Youngstown State could get to 8-3 or lose all 3 remaining games. At 7-4 they've lost to North Dakota. [b]I think the absolute most likely scenario here is that North Dakota has a shot at 7-4, but SIU could have a shot if they upset South Dakota State and win out. I think they'll get 3 teams but I'm not sure who the third one is yet.

CAA: What an absolute friggin mess.I think WM and Elon should get to 8 DI wins, but I don't think either are the favorite to win the CAA title. UNH is favored in 2 of 3 and could win outright with a 7-1 CAA record even if they lose to Richmond. Delaware and Villanova might be for a playoff spot to end the year. and I don't know if Richmond can find a way to win 2 of 3. I think we could be looking at 5 8 win CAA teams, and I think they all get in if they do based on my read on the bubble.

NON-MAJOR-CONFERENCE: I'm not sure a 9 win Fordham team can sniff the playoffs over an 8 win team from a larger conference, but a 7 win team? Maybe? The resume isn't great. Same with a 9 win FAMU. If you are a bubble team, you should be rooting for Southeastern LA [just 1 FCS loss, with a win over Incarnate word] and UT-Martin [they'd at least tie for the OVC title if they win out] to drop a game. You should also be rooting for Furman to beat Mercer this weekend.
I hadn't really thought of FAMU at all but it is possible they'd be in the conversation again if they make it to 9-2. They'd need a ton of help though I think.

The more I look at UTM the more I think they might be in trouble even at 8-3 if they don't get the OVC auto. That loss to Missouri St that at one time was propping them up is now dragging them down and they're not really going to have any chance for a marquee win. You'd think that there will be some upsets that soften the bubble for them which would make them feel better at 8-3 but if they're going up against a 7-4 Montana or Illinois St or Rhode Island who all have better wins does that extra win for UTM help them enough to get the nod???

[WrenFGun]

Anyone know the tie breaker in the OVC since SEMO doesn't play UTM?

[Professor Chaos]

Anyone know the tie breaker in the OVC since SEMO doesn't play UTM?
Pretty sure it would come down to a coin flip if they both finished undefeated in conference: https://ovcsports.com/news/2022/10/24/2022-ovc-football-tiebreaker.aspx

[Mocs123]

I think I read it was a coin toss. Sounds crazy but that's what someone else was saying.

[lionsrking2]

NON-MAJOR-CONFERENCE: I'm not sure a 9 win Fordham team can sniff the playoffs over an 8 win team from a larger conference, but a 7 win team? Maybe? The resume isn't great. Same with a 9 win FAMU. If you are a bubble team, you should be rooting for Southeastern LA [just 1 FCS loss, with a win over Incarnate word] and UT-Martin [they'd at least tie for the OVC title if they win out] to drop a game. You should also be rooting for Furman to beat Mercer this weekend.

We (SLU) also have a decisive road win over a 7-2 Jacksonville State team that is playing with 72 scholarships. If they win out, we would have wins over a top 5 10-1 UIW and potentially a 9-2 team transitioning FCS to FBS. Any loss to Lamar, NW State or Nicholls would be a bad loss but we would have two of the better wins by any potential 7 FCS win team and better than anything Fordham has beaten. Plus our three point loss to A&M-Commerce was without our starting QB. I wouldn’t want to chance it, but I think we still get in at 7-4 though I like our chances to win out. We got in at 7-4 in 2019 and this is a better resume.

[WestCoastAggie]

3 weeks to go until Selection Sunday and this is list of teams I have in playoff contention along with a few teams who I see as locking themselves in with wins yesterday. I attempted to handicap their odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining games. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
Sac St is a lock and Montana St and Weber St are virtually locks but after that it gets tricky. According to Massey Idaho has toss-ups the next two weeks and they'll need to at least split those to stay in the conversation and probably win both to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat. I feel like Montana is heading towards a very polarizing 7-4 resume unless they can beat the Bobcats in the brawl which would lock them in even if they're upset once in the next couple weeks. UC Davis is still in it but they'll probably have to sweep Idaho and Sac St on the road to get in which is a tall order indeed. I see the Big Sky with 3-5 bids so I'll split the difference and say 4 as of right now.

Locks
Sac St 8-0 (5-0) [2.02/0.98] - @Weber St (50%), @PSU (82%), UC Davis (70%)

Should be in
Montana St 7-1 (5-0) [2.15/0.85] - @NAU (77%), @Cal Poly (86%), Montana (52%)
Weber St 7-1 (5-1) [2.35/0.65] - Sac St (50%), Idaho St (98%), @NAU (87%)

Work left to do
Idaho 5-3 (4-1) [1.95/1.05] - EWU (61%), UC Davis (51%), @Idaho St (83%)
Montana 5-3 (2-3) [2.14/0.86] - Cal Poly (95%), EWU (72%), @Montana St (48%)

In the hunt
UC Davis 4-4 (3-2) [1.69/1.31] - Idaho St (91%), @Idaho (49%), @Sac St (30%)


CAA
If the CAA was a mess last week it's in utter chaos this week. W&M is looking good but after that it's anyone's guess. Massey like Richmond to win out which might even get them seeded with those impressive wins but I'm still skeptical they can do it. UNH could plausibly end up anywhere from 3-0 and 0-3 in their last 3 - would 7-4 (6-2) be good enough??? Elon's big win over Delaware has them sitting pretty with 3 quality wins and a pretty clear path to 8-3 but if they drop another one things will get dicey in a hurry. Delaware and Rhode Island are looking shaky as 7-4 (or worse) look like a real possibility for them which will put them firmly on the bubble and Nova is still lurking with a chance to throw a monkey wrench into things. I have no clue how this plays out but just based on the sheer number of teams still in contention I'm going to say the CAA gets 4 into the field.

Should be in
William & Mary 7-1 (4-1) [1.84/1.16] - @Hampton (86%), Nova (58%), @Richmond (41%)

Work left to do
Richmond 6-2 (4-1) [1.93/1.07] - UNH (77%), @Delaware (57%), William & Mary (59%)
New Hampshire 6-2 (5-0) [1.34/1.66] @Richmond (23%), URI (54%), @Maine (59%)
Elon 6-3 (4-2) [1.56/0.44] - Albany (69%), @Hampton (87%)
Delaware 6-2 (3-2) [1.46/1.54] - Monmouth (62%), Richmond (43%), @Nova (41%)
Rhode Island 5-3 (3-2) [1.73/1.27] - Maine (68%), @UNH (46%), Albany (59%)

In the hunt
Villanova 5-3 (3-2) [1.74/1.26] - @Towson (73%), @W&M (42%), Delaware (59%)


MVFC
Could the MVFC end up with only 2 playoff teams??? I think it's definitely within the realm of possibilities. SDSU is locked in and NDSU looks to be in pretty good shape - beyond that no one can feel very comfortable. 7-4 looks doable for Illinois St and UND if they win and lose the games the Massey odds say they will but neither would have a marquee win so they couldn't feel too comfortable. YSU has some margin for error but they'll need to win at least 2 of 3 and Massey sees them as underdogs in each of their last 3. SIU and UNI both probably need to win out which is going to be a tough task for either. I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 3 but 4 is also a decent possibility with 2 or 5 both being unlikely but possible.

Locks
SDSU 8-1 (6-0) [1.59/0.41] - @UNI (64%), Illinois St (92%)

Should be in
NDSU 6-2 (4-1) [2.39/0.61] - @WIU (92%), @SIU (65%), UND (78%)

Work left to do
Illinois St 5-3 (3-2) [1.43/1.57] - YSU (58%), @SDSU (8%), WIU (81%)
UND 5-3 (3-2) [1.55/1.45] - @Indiana St (68%), USD (60%), @NDSU (22%)
YSU 5-3 (3-2) [1.31/1.69] - @Illinois St (42%), @Missouri St (40%), SIU (39%)

In the hunt
SIU 5-4 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - NDSU (35%), @YSU (61%)
UNI 5-4 (3-2) [0.97/1.03] - SDSU (36%), @USD (58%)


SOCON
Chattanooga's loss to Furman yesterday was the SOCON's gain as it's looking like 4 playoff bids for the conference is a very strong possibility. Massey sets Samford, UTC, and Furman all with fairly clear paths to 8 wins which should lock any and all of them in. Mercer closes out with two tough ones but a win in either should lock them in. I'm seeing 4 bids for the SOCON but probably no seeds given how no team seems likely to separate themselves from the pack unless Samford wins out.

Should be in
Samford 7-1 (5-0) [1.69/1.31] - VMI (86%), @UTC (37%), Mercer (46%)
Chattanooga 6-2 (4-1) [2.30/0.70] - @Citadel (92%), Samford (63%), @WCU (75%)
Furman 7-2 (5-1) [1.21/0.79] - @Mercer (35%), Wofford (86%)

Work left to do
Mercer 7-2 (5-1) [1.19/0.81] - Furman (65%), @Samford (54%)


OVC and Southland
I think UIW locked themselves yesterday while SEMO didn't do themselves any favors but should still be fine if they take care of business as they should these last 3 weeks. SLU and UTM are both favored pretty heavily in their final 3 but if either drops one of them, UTM especially, I think they'd find themselves on the outside looking in. I'm still going to guess all 4 of these teams take care of business and make it in.

Locks
Incarnate Word 8-1 (3-1) [1.80/0.20] - HCU (94%), NWSU (86%)

Should be in
SEMO 6-2 (2-0) [2.45/0.55] - @TSU (77%), @EIU (79%), Murray St (89%)

Work left to do
SLU 5-3 (2-1) [2.46/0.54] - @Lamar (87%), NWSU (87%), @Nicholls (73%)
UT Martin 5-3 (3-0) [2.30/0.70] - KSU (70%), @TSU (76%), EIU (84%)


Others
There will probably be 3 autos (from the Patiot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they win out to get to 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross. I don't know how the WAC/ASUN auto will play out but with unexpected losses from both SFA and Austin Peay (by Massey's standards) I think it's pretty unlikely any team other than the auto gets in which includes EKU ,UCA, and ACU in the below group. NC A&T is in the driver's seat for the Big South auto and that looks like their only path to the playoffs but Massey favors Gardner-Webb in their last game which could derail them. NC Central continues to be an intersting wild card - despite SCSU's loss yeserday I still don't think NCCU is in line for the Celebration Bowl as the MEAC champ right now but if they win out to get to 9-2 with wins over UNH and NC A&T it would be tough to leave them our. Depending on what happens in the leagues listed above there may not be any at-large spots for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the autos.


Locks
Holy Cross 8-0 (4-0) [2.69/0.31] - Lehigh (96%), Bryant (84%), @Georgetown (89%)

Work left to do
Fordham 6-2 (3-1) [2.20/0.80] - @Bucknell (78%), Lafayette (73%), Colgate (70%)
EKU 5-3 (1-1) [1.50/1.50] - UCA (48%), @Jax St (40%), KSU (62%)

In the hunt
Austin Peay 5-3 (1-2) [1.27/1.73] - @UNA (68%), @KSU (58%), @Alabama (0%)
ACU 5-3 (2-0) [1.34/1.66] - @Tarleton St (60%), @SHSU (22%), SFA (52%)
NC Central 6-2 (2-1) [1.80/1.20] - Howard (64%), @Norfolk St (70%), @TTU (46%)
NC A&T 5-3 (3-0) [1.83/1.17] - Norfolk St (83%), CSU (63%), @Gardner-Webb (35%)
UCA 4-4 (3-0) [1.61/1.39] - @EKU (52%), @SFA (55%), Jax St (54%)
Campbell 4-4 (2-1) [1.97/1.03] - @Bryant (61%), Gardner-Webb (50%), @Delaware St (85%)
Stephen F Austin 5-4 (2-2) [0.93/1.07] - UCA (48%), @ACU (45%)



So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan the last 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Idaho (7-4)
CAA: 3 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 2 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
OVC: 1 - SEMO (9-2), UT Martin (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)
For the autos I have listed in the "others" category I've got Holy Cross (11-0) out of the Patriot, UCA (7-4) for the WAC/ASUN, and NC A&T (7-4) out of the Big South.

The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0)

On the outside looking in amonst the teams I've listed above: Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (7-4), Delaware (6-5), Illinois St (7-4), UNI (6-5), SIU (6-5), YSU (5-6), Fordham (9-2), EKU (6-5), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4), NC Central (8-3), Campbell (7-4), SFA (5-6)

Last 4 in (in no particular order): Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4), UT Martin (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Illinos St (7-4), Fordham (9-2)

The bubble looks tough this year but it usually seems to look tougher at this point in the season with 2-3 games left than it ends up being - each upset that happens in the last 3 weeks (which is bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.

I'm not going to take a crack at the bracket since this is all a whole lot of guessing even to put a projected field together


What do you think?

A&T is 5-3 now. Also, you gotta include Gardner Webb as they're also 3-0 in Big South play.

[WestCoastAggie]

SOCON: A few notes: Furman has a non-counter. I think they're in with a win over Wofford in the finale given the great win over Chattanooga, but don't discount that they'd be a 7 DI win team with a loss against Mercer. In general, the SoCon looks like a four bid league, but Mercer is out if they lose out, and it's very possible they could do so. They have a home one against Furman that's massive for pretty much the entire bubble [a win there probably ensures 4 teams from the SoCon] but they drop that game at home then they have a brutal finale.

MVFC: I think there's enough room on the bubble for a 7-4 team but jesus christ what a mess. SIU or UNI need to pull a massive home upset. UNI has beaten SIU but lost to ISU-r, but ISU-r lost to SIU. North Dakota can get to 7 DI wins even if they lost to ND State, but they .. lost to SIU. Youngstown State could get to 8-3 or lose all 3 remaining games. At 7-4 they've lost to North Dakota. [b]I think the absolute most likely scenario here is that North Dakota has a shot at 7-4, but SIU could have a shot if they upset South Dakota State and win out. I think they'll get 3 teams but I'm not sure who the third one is yet.

CAA: What an absolute friggin mess.I think WM and Elon should get to 8 DI wins, but I don't think either are the favorite to win the CAA title. UNH is favored in 2 of 3 and could win outright with a 7-1 CAA record even if they lose to Richmond. Delaware and Villanova might be for a playoff spot to end the year. and I don't know if Richmond can find a way to win 2 of 3. I think we could be looking at 5 8 win CAA teams, and I think they all get in if they do based on my read on the bubble.

NON-MAJOR-CONFERENCE: I'm not sure a 9 win Fordham team can sniff the playoffs over an 8 win team from a larger conference, but a 7 win team? Maybe? The resume isn't great. Same with a 9 win FAMU. If you are a bubble team, you should be rooting for Southeastern LA [just 1 FCS loss, with a win over Incarnate word] and UT-Martin [they'd at least tie for the OVC title if they win out] to drop a game. You should also be rooting for Furman to beat Mercer this weekend.

You gotta include Saint Francis and Merrimack in your NON-MAJOR-CONFERENCE category.

[WrenFGun]

A&T and Webb will settle the Big South on the field. Neither will be in a good spot for an at large with a loss so it will take care of itself.

Merrimack is ineligible, so ST Francis has clinched.

[ElCid]

A&T is 5-3 now. Also, you gotta include Gardner Webb as they're also 3-0 in Big South play.

G-W has had a crazy under the radar season. They've lost to two 7-1 FBS teams by a total of 5 points (lost to Liberty by 1 and CCU by 4). Although Marshall beat them by 3 scores. They lost to Elon by only 6. Their worst blown out lost, including their three FBS games, was against Mercer, 45-14. Haven't watched them, but they must have something going. They got Campbell and A&T remaining. Interesting.

[DFW HOYA]

If Fordham doesn't get in at 9-2, the Patriot can end all semblance of being a multi-bid league again.

[Chalupa Batman]

So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan the last 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Idaho (7-4)
CAA: 3 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 2 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
OVC: 1 - SEMO (9-2), UT Martin (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)
For the autos I have listed in the "others" category I've got Holy Cross (11-0) out of the Patriot, UCA (7-4) for the WAC/ASUN, and NC A&T (7-4) out of the Big South.

The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0)

On the outside looking in amonst the teams I've listed above: Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (7-4), Delaware (6-5), Illinois St (7-4), UNI (6-5), SIU (6-5), YSU (5-6), Fordham (9-2), EKU (6-5), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4), NC Central (8-3), Campbell (7-4), SFA (5-6)

Last 4 in (in no particular order): Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4), UT Martin (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Illinos St (7-4), Fordham (9-2)

The bubble looks tough this year but it usually seems to look tougher at this point in the season with 2-3 games left than it ends up being - each upset that happens in the last 3 weeks (which is bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.

I'm not going to take a crack at the bracket since this is all a whole lot of guessing even to put a projected field together


What do you think?

If SLU wins out as you have prognosticated they would be the Southland autobid and UIW would be the at-large, no? Not a huge deal since you have them both in anyway except SLU wouldn't be one of the last 4 in.



I hadn't really thought of FAMU at all but it is possible they'd be in the conversation again if they make it to 9-2. They'd need a ton of help though I think.

The more I look at UTM the more I think they might be in trouble even at 8-3 if they don't get the OVC auto. That loss to Missouri St that at one time was propping them up is now dragging them down and they're not really going to have any chance for a marquee win. You'd think that there will be some upsets that soften the bubble for them which would make them feel better at 8-3 but if they're going up against a 7-4 Montana or Illinois St or Rhode Island who all have better wins does that extra win for UTM help them enough to get the nod???

As always it depends on how the rest of the bubble shakes out but I agree that UTM should be hoping they win the coin flip for the OVC autobid, but I think if they continue to be ranked top 20 in the polls they'll end up getting in regardless. SEMO should be comfortable with 9 wins if they don't get the autobid, but their resume is looking pretty shaky now with their signature win SIU stumbling the last couple weeks.

[Professor Chaos]

If SLU wins out as you have prognosticated they would be the Southland autobid and UIW would be the at-large, no? Not a huge deal since you have them both in anyway except SLU wouldn't be one of the last 4 in.




As always it depends on how the rest of the bubble shakes out but I agree that UTM should be hoping they win the coin flip for the OVC autobid, but I think if they continue to be ranked top 20 in the polls they'll end up getting in regardless. SEMO should be comfortable with 9 wins if they don't get the autobid, but their resume is looking pretty shaky now with their signature win SIU stumbling the last couple weeks.
Yeah, good call on SLU and the auto although I wonder if TAMU-Commerce could complicate things there if it's a 3 way tie at the top? Not sure if they even play into the conference tie breaker process yet.

[FUGameBreaker]

The whole 8 FCS wins thing is total garbage, DII teams with scholarship players can be much tougher than many of these sorry non scholarship FCS teams, the whole system is flawed if that's the criteria


"D2 football teams get 36 athletic scholarships"

Should count just as much as a non-scholarship FCS win

[Chalupa Batman]

Yeah, good call on SLU and the auto although I wonder if TAMU-Commerce could complicate things there if it's a 3 way tie at the top? Not sure if they even play into the conference tie breaker process yet.

I was assuming TAMU-Commerce wouldn't play into any tiebreaker scenario but you never know. Didn't see anything addressing that on the conference website:

https://www.southland.org/sports/2013/12/1/FB_1201132544.aspx

[lionsrking2]

I was assuming TAMU-Commerce wouldn't play into any tiebreaker scenario but you never know. Didn't see anything addressing that on the conference website:

https://www.southland.org/sports/2013/12/1/FB_1201132544.aspx
Commerce is eligible for the championship but not the autobid. The league tiebreaker rules only discuss tiebreaker as it relates to autobid, not the championship, so assuming Commerce would be eliminated from discussion. But it’s not crystal clear.

[caribbeanhen]

I think I read it was a coin toss. Sounds crazy but that's what someone else was saying.

Actually it will be whoever has the hottest cheerleaders, the coin flip will just be a façade

[WestCoastAggie]

A&T and Webb will settle the Big South on the field. Neither will be in a good spot for an at large with a loss so it will take care of itself.

Merrimack is ineligible, so ST Francis has clinched. Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

[WestCoastAggie]

G-W has had a crazy under the radar season. They've lost to two 7-1 FBS teams by a total of 5 points (lost to Liberty by 1 and CCU by 4). Although Marshall beat them by 3 scores. They lost to Elon by only 6. Their worst blown out lost, including their three FBS games, was against Mercer, 45-14. Haven't watched them, but they must have something going. They got Campbell and A&T remaining. Interesting.
G-Webb’s Air Raid will pose problems for A&T and Campbell.

[Gil Dobie]

Did the Pioneer lose its auto bid. Should come down to the Dayton vs Davidson game the final week if they are in.

[Professor Chaos]

Did the Pioneer lose its auto bid. Should come down to the Dayton vs Davidson game the final week if they are in.
No, they still have it. I didn't include the Pioneer or NEC since they're definitely 1 bid leagues.

[FUBeAR]

SOCON
Chattanooga's loss to Furman yesterday was the SOCON's gain as it's looking like 4 playoff bids for the conference is a very strong possibility. Massey sets Samford, UTC, and Furman all with fairly clear paths to 8 wins which should lock any and all of them in. Mercer closes out with two tough ones but a win in either should lock them in. I'm seeing 4 bids for the SOCON but probably no seeds given how no team seems likely to separate themselves from the pack unless Samford wins out.

Should be in
Samford 7-1 (5-0) [1.69/1.31] - VMI (86%), @UTC (37%), Mercer (46%)
Chattanooga 6-2 (4-1) [2.30/0.70] - @Citadel (92%), Samford (63%), @WCU (75%)
Furman 7-2 (5-1) [1.21/0.79] - @Mercer (35%), Wofford (86%)

Work left to do
Mercer 7-2 (5-1) [1.19/0.81] - Furman (65%), @Samford (54%)

If Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, and Samford are not ALL in the Playoffs - because they each only lost to one another and to a highly ranked FBS P5 SEC, ACC, or B1G Team - then each member of the FCS Playoff Selection Committee should be publicly hanged, drawn, and quartered for their high treason to the game of Football.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ptrRXz_5f0o/maxresdefault.jpg

[F'N Hawks]

Is St. Thomas eligible for playoffs yet?

[katss07]

Is St. Thomas eligible for playoffs yet?
No. I don’t believe they’ll be eligible until 2025. It takes four years to complete a transition into D1.

[F'N Hawks]

No. I don’t believe they’ll be eligible until 2025. It takes four years to complete a transition into D1.

I purposely had those four years removed from my memory. xsmhx

[bonarae]

No. I don’t believe they’ll be eligible until 2025. It takes four years to complete a transition into D1.

Will the 2022 Tommies be ranked among the "wasted chance" teams just because they were just transitioning to FCS/I-AA? xchinscratchx

[NY Crusader 2010]

G-W has had a crazy under the radar season. They've lost to two 7-1 FBS teams by a total of 5 points (lost to Liberty by 1 and CCU by 4). Although Marshall beat them by 3 scores. They lost to Elon by only 6. Their worst blown out lost, including their three FBS games, was against Mercer, 45-14. Haven't watched them, but they must have something going. They got Campbell and A&T remaining. Interesting.

I've been thinking the same thing. They had Coastal Carolina on the ropes into the 4th quarter...and that game result didn't even get so much as a "ha-chu" on AGS discussion.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Will the 2022 Tommies be ranked among the "wasted chance" teams just because they were just transitioning to FCS/I-AA? xchinscratchx Nowhere close to NDSU in 2007 but similar to Merrimack this year. Murphy may wind up regretting scheduling that series in coming years.

St. Thomas is a nice Pioneer team this year but zero shot they'd compete in a playoff game this season IMO. Especially considering the geographic likelihood of being paired up with The Valley or Big Sky in opening round.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I hope UT-Martin wins out and gets in. This is a really good team that is being disrespected because they lost to a then highly motivated, highly focused team on the road. Otherwise, they have demolished all their inferior FCS competition like a good team should. This team has playoff experience and pedigree. They very much remind me of some forgotten about PL teams of the past. I really think UT-Martin can win a game or two with the right draw.....

Honestly, UT-Martin and Fordham are very similar. Except, the Skyhawks were a Top 15 team in 2021 and returned a lot of talent....

[caribbeanhen]

If Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, and Samford are not ALL in the Playoffs - because they each only lost to one another and to a highly ranked FBS P5 SEC, ACC, or B1G Team - then each member of the FCS Playoff Selection Committee should be publicly hanged, drawn, and quartered for their high treason to the game of Football.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ptrRXz_5f0o/maxresdefault.jpg

was curious about why the butcher had his hand in the open wound like he was looking for a stray quarter so I looked it up... this would be brutal even for Marty



Removed from hanging and placed on a table. Still alive, the victim was cut open in the abdomen and his intestines (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intestines) and sex organs (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_organ) removed (this is another meaning of drawn—see the reference to the Oxford English Dictionary (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_English_Dictionary) below). The removed organs were burned in a flame, prepared close to the prisoner.[3] (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanged,_drawn_and_quartered#cite_note-3)

[bonarae]

I've been thinking the same thing. They had Coastal Carolina on the ropes into the 4th quarter...and that game result didn't even get so much as a "ha-chu" on AGS discussion.

I tried exposing the Big South here a few seasons ago but I gave up... xsighx

[FUBeAR]

was curious about why the butcher had his hand in the open wound like he was looking for a stray quarter so I looked it up... this would be brutal even for Marty



Removed from hanging and placed on a table. Still alive, the victim was cut open in the abdomen and his intestines (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intestines) and sex organs (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_organ) removed (this is another meaning of drawn—see the reference to the Oxford English Dictionary (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_English_Dictionary) below). The removed organs were burned in a flame, prepared close to the prisoner.[3] (https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanged,_drawn_and_quartered#cite_note-3)


Everyone knows that. Everyday stuff here in the South

Glad to see that you agree with FUBeAR.

Will you also be joining FUBeAR in boycotting the FCS Playoffs if, given the stated parameters, 4 SoCon Teams (3 At-Large) are not selected for the Playoff field?

[Professor Chaos]

If Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, and Samford are not ALL in the Playoffs - because they each only lost to one another and to a highly ranked FBS P5 SEC, ACC, or B1G Team - then each member of the FCS Playoff Selection Committee should be publicly hanged, drawn, and quartered for their high treason to the game of Football.
I don't think you'll have much to worry about with all of them except Mercer since the other 3 have each beaten one of the other "big 4". If Mercer drops their last two against Furman and Samford to finish at 7-4 I think they'll be in trouble. They wouldn't have any bad losses but they wouldn't have any notable wins either - maybe if Gardner-Webb can pull out the Big South auto they could make a better argument but it would be shaky at best.

[caribbeanhen]

Everyone knows that. Everyday stuff here in the South

Glad to see that you agree with FUBeAR.

Will you also be joining FUBeAR in boycotting the FCS Playoffs if, given the stated parameters, 4 SoCon Teams (3 At-Large) are not selected for the Playoff field?

No
I’ll be watching the how ever many Southern Conference teams make it, the CAA is in a similar situation

[Preferred Walk-On]

Everyone knows that. Everyday stuff here in the South

Glad to see that you agree with FUBeAR.

Will you also be joining FUBeAR in boycotting the FCS Playoffs if, given the stated parameters, 4 SoCon Teams (3 At-Large) are not selected for the Playoff field?

I'm cool with this...as long as they get the 2015 MVFC treatment and place all 4 SoCon teams on the same side of the bracket.

[FUBeAR]

I'm cool with this...as long as they get the 2015 MVFC treatment and place all 4 SoCon teams on the same side of the bracket.
Been there; done that https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/football/fcs/2016 …well…almost.