Big Sky predictions-10/27

[JALMOND]

So we are starting the stretch run and there is some good football left to be played in the conference. The Grizzlies sit atop the standings undefeated, but these last four weeks will decide the race. Short and sweet, so let's get to this week's games. Currently, for the season I am 38-7 after last week's 3-2 finish. See if I can improve on that this week.

EWU @ Sac State---The Eagles return to conference play after stepping up a notch last week, going to FCS Brigham Young. The Hornets found out last week that life can be hard, especially in Bozeman. Both teams have shown an alarming tendency not to complete the games, losing in the final minutes. So let's stop the game halfway through the fourth...EWU 28, Sac State 21.

Cal Poly @ ISU---The Bengals surprised the conference with their win at home last week against Portland State. Will it give them confidence against Cal Poly from the Great West, who is currently undefeated against the Big Sky? A boost of confidence can go a long way, especially at home...ISU 30, Cal Poly 27.

MSU @ UNC---The Cat offense has arrived late this season, but in the nick of time to get a victory. The Cat defense gives a boost when it needs to. The Bears, well, they try...MSU 26, UNC 10.

WSU @ PSU---The Wildcat defense, at times carrying the whole team, broke down against NAU's high octane offense last week. This week finds them on the road, again facing a high profile offense in Portland State, who was embarrassed on the road at Idaho State last week. Which will give, the Weber D or PSU's O...PSU 34, WSU 17.

and the conference game of the week...

UM @ NAU---This will be the Grizzlies second road game all year. Throughout the year, the Jacks have shown to be a strong, offensive minded team, seemingly scoring points at will against all types of defenses. The Griz have struggled since starting conference play, except against UNC last week. Interesting intangible is that the Jacks coach, Saurs, has never beaten the Griz since becoming the Jacks head coach. Hail to the coach...NAU 45, UM 27.

Really going out on a limb this week, with three upsets in conference (ISU, PSU and NAU). But those are the only ones that I picked the home teams to win, and at this stage, if you do not protect your own turf, you deserve to lose. With the home field edge, all three should be close to a tossup by gametime. We'll see how they all pan out. Make or break weekend, for myself and the conference.

[uofmman1122]

I don't think our defense is that weak. If we lose, it'll be close. Even if we don't lose, this will be a lot closer than that. I think EWU's offense is more potent than NAU's, to be honest. But hey, it's just my opinion.

[AZGrizFan]

I don't think our defense is that weak. If we lose, it'll be close. Even if we don't lose, this will be a lot closer than that. I think EWU's offense is more potent than NAU's, to be honest. But hey, it's just my opinion.

I agree 100%. I can't honestly see our defense giving up 30, let alone 45. I can, however, see our offense struggling.....If the Griz were to lose this game, it'd be more like 24-21, or something of that nature, but I think we'll pull out a close one.....

Griz 24
NAU 20

[Griz0383]

45 points! not a chance!!! yards between the 20's is one thing but yards and points in the red zone is another. Griz win and send a message to the rest of the FCS! Griz 38 nau 17!

[already123]

And here come the griz fans...

[ForShizzleGrizzle]

And here comes the Jack FAN

[grizbeer]

WSU @ PSU---The Wildcat defense, at times carrying the whole team, broke down against NAU's high octane offense last week.

Just for the record, NAU scored 7 on an interception return, and 2 on a safety, so NAU's high powered offense scored 20 against Weber State's 20 - I wouldn't really lay this one on the defense.

Perception is funny - NAU's offense scores 20 points, 17 first downs, and 385 total yards against Weber State, and they are considered "high powered". Montana's offense scores 18 points, 19 first downs, and 311 yards against the same team, and Montana's offense is considered anemic. Strange.

[cats2506]

I dont know that ISU will win over Cal Poly

I would have picked PSU until I heard white will not play.

NAU can get the win, but I expect it to be close.

[Phrebert]

Dome + Carpenter = 60 yd FGs all over
18-Griz(6 FG's)
7-NAU (after a lucky catch by a receiver.)

[Pauly LB]

So we are starting the stretch run and there is some good football left to be played in the conference. The Grizzlies sit atop the standings undefeated, but these last four weeks will decide the race. Short and sweet, so let's get to this week's games. Currently, for the season I am 38-7 after last week's 3-2 finish. See if I can improve on that this week.

EWU @ Sac State---The Eagles return to conference play after stepping up a notch last week, going to FCS Brigham Young. The Hornets found out last week that life can be hard, especially in Bozeman. Both teams have shown an alarming tendency not to complete the games, losing in the final minutes. So let's stop the game halfway through the fourth...EWU 28, Sac State 21.

Cal Poly @ ISU---The Bengals surprised the conference with their win at home last week against Portland State. Will it give them confidence against Cal Poly from the Great West, who is currently undefeated against the Big Sky? A boost of confidence can go a long way, especially at home...ISU 30, Cal Poly 27.

MSU @ UNC---The Cat offense has arrived late this season, but in the nick of time to get a victory. The Cat defense gives a boost when it needs to. The Bears, well, they try...MSU 26, UNC 10.

WSU @ PSU---The Wildcat defense, at times carrying the whole team, broke down against NAU's high octane offense last week. This week finds them on the road, again facing a high profile offense in Portland State, who was embarrassed on the road at Idaho State last week. Which will give, the Weber D or PSU's O...PSU 34, WSU 17.

and the conference game of the week...

UM @ NAU---This will be the Grizzlies second road game all year. Throughout the year, the Jacks have shown to be a strong, offensive minded team, seemingly scoring points at will against all types of defenses. The Griz have struggled since starting conference play, except against UNC last week. Interesting intangible is that the Jacks coach, Saurs, has never beaten the Griz since becoming the Jacks head coach. Hail to the coach...NAU 45, UM 27.

Really going out on a limb this week, with three upsets in conference (ISU, PSU and NAU). But those are the only ones that I picked the home teams to win, and at this stage, if you do not protect your own turf, you deserve to lose. With the home field edge, all three should be close to a tossup by gametime. We'll see how they all pan out. Make or break weekend, for myself and the conference.

Hasn't anyone paid any attention to the Cal Poly offense? Their last three games they are averaging over 51 points per game. NO way do they get held to only 27 points. The question is how many will their defense allow...

[already123]

Just for the record, NAU scored 7 on an interception return, and 2 on a safety, so NAU's high powered offense scored 20 against Weber State's 20 - I wouldn't really lay this one on the defense.

Perception is funny - NAU's offense scores 20 points, 17 first downs, and 385 total yards against Weber State, and they are considered "high powered". Montana's offense scores 18 points, 19 first downs, and 311 yards against the same team, and Montana's offense is considered anemic. Strange.


Maybe. But the diff between those two games was the defense. NAU was able to score on all 3 sides of the ball. A better TEAM win. And there is quite a difference between just over 300 yards of offense and almost 400 yards. Esp when your best RB didnt play. xpeacex

[uofmman1122]

Maybe. But the diff between those two games was the defense. NAU was able to score on all 3 sides of the ball. A better TEAM win. And there is quite a difference between just over 300 yards of offense and almost 400 yards. Esp when your best RB didnt play. xpeacexNow, why does this seem familiar....? xconfusedx

[already123]

Did Lex not play against Weber or something?

[appfan2008]

interesting call on nau over montana... if that upset happens which i believe there is certainly a possibility of it happening... then it will be much closer and lower scoring than you have

[already123]

It all depends on which NAU team shows up

[grizbeer]

Did Lex not play against Weber or something?
He saw limited action, he was banged up coming in, and left the game in the 3rd quarter. And just so we are clear, if a defense is able to hold a "high powered" offense to 20 points, 17 first downs, and 385 yards, then that is a pretty good day - asking them to do more is probably unreasonable. However asking your offense not to give up 9 points is probably reasonable.

[kalm]

And here comes the Jack FAN

Good comeback, arrogant comments like that are exactly why the griz are so hated. xthumbsupx

[Proud Griz Man]

So UM @ NAU---This will be the Grizzlies second road game all year. Throughout the year, the Jacks have shown to be a strong, offensive minded team, seemingly scoring points at will against all types of defenses. The Griz have struggled since starting conference play, except against UNC last week. Interesting intangible is that the Jacks coach, Saurs, has never beaten the Griz since becoming the Jacks head coach. Hail to the coach...NAU 45, UM 27.

Really going out on a limb this week, with three upsets in conference (ISU, PSU and NAU). But those are the only ones that I picked the home teams to win, and at this stage, if you do not protect your own turf, you deserve to lose. With the home field edge, all three should be close to a tossup by gametime. We'll see how they all pan out. Make or break weekend, for myself and the conference.

Griz lose by 18? I'll take that bet. PM with your wager Jalmond.

[I Bleed Purple]

He saw limited action, he was banged up coming in, and left the game in the 3rd quarter. And just so we are clear, if a defense is able to hold a "high powered" offense to 20 points, 17 first downs, and 385 yards, then that is a pretty good day - asking them to do more is probably unreasonable. However asking your offense not to give up 9 points is probably reasonable.

We're talking about our offense, right?

[CopperCat]

Griz lose by 18? I'll take that bet. PM with your wager Jalmond.

More complaining about a predicted upset. Did you get the memo that they game hasn't even been played yet?xeyebrowx

But I've got to admit JAL, your predictions have slowly become more homerish in the past two weeks. I wouldn't pick PSU over WSU right now, nor would I pick NAU over UM by 18. I could be and hopefully will be wrong about these things, but I just can't see those things happening.

[GolfingGriz]

Well considering NAU already had their super bowl against App State, i think we pull it outxrolleyesx

[JALMOND]

All good discussions. A few points in my favor, please...

1. Cal Poly/ISU---Maybe a homer pick for the conference (Cal Poly has not lost to the Big Sky yet this year), but ISU is the first Big Sky team the Mustangs have faced on the road. The Bengals got a big win last week in Pocatello. Momentum and confidence could play a big role in this game.

2. WSU/PSU---Granted this pick was made on the assumption that White was going to play (listed as doubtful as of today). Still, most of the conference season, Portland State has played everyone tough except last week in Pocatello. When you get beat up like that, what better place is there than home? Weber is good this year but the offense still is not up to the level of the defense. Chalk this up to the home team.

3. UM/NAU---A lot of discussion on an "upset" pick. One has to admit that this is the toughest game the Griz have played all year. If the Jacks are true playoff contenders, they need to hold serve at home, and that includes against the mighty Griz. If the Griz are indeed struggling (as most of the country thinks they are), this will be no contest. If the previous Griz games were a situation where the Griz were playing to the level of their opponent, this game will be close and the Griz could win it. If the game was played in Missoula, a Griz victory no doubt. But to play at Flag-Town...The Jacks have the capability to win this game. A statement game for both, and NAU has more to lose.

4. Homecoming---Both PSU and NAU are celebrating homecoming this weekend. Both will play strong in front of returning alumni and other festivities you can bet on that.

Look at it this way. Week 9 in the Big Sky. EWU favored on the road. MSU favored on the road. Would someone really bet on the road team winning all five games this late in the season? I think the home team will win some games this week, and I don't think it will be Sac State or Northern Colorado. Smart money on NAU and PSU, even without White. ISU maybe a stretch but Cal Poly is 1-3 on the road this year, ISU is 3-1 at home.

[uofmman1122]

3. UM/NAU---A lot of discussion on an "upset" pick. One has to admit that this is the toughest game the Griz have played all year. If the Jacks are true playoff contenders, they need to hold serve at home, and that includes against the mighty Griz. If the Griz are indeed struggling (as most of the country thinks they are), this will be no contest. If the previous Griz games were a situation where the Griz were playing to the level of their opponent, this game will be close and the Griz could win it. If the game was played in Missoula, a Griz victory no doubt. But to play at Flag-Town...The Jacks have the capability to win this game. A statement game for both, and NAU has more to lose.I'd more change it to, "If the Griz are indeed struggling, this will be a very close contest, either way." I honestly think that, besides Arizona, the Jacks won't see a better defense than Montana's, and looking at their past games, they haven't "shined" offensively against good defensive teams like Sac St. and Weber St. In every other win, however, they've scored at least 34 points. In my opinion, if the UM Defense holds the Jacks like I know they can, Montana wins this game. However, if offense and defense show up and play to their ability, I'd agree that this one won't be close, with Montana by at least 2 scores, but realistically I still see this one being a very close game. Griz definitely have a chance to lose, but by no more than 7.

Also, I can't see Cal-Poly losing to ISU. Things went bad for PSU last week, and they never really got back into the game. I don't think ISU can carry that momentum against the Mustangs. However, I'm going to take PSU over Weber this week.

[JALMOND]

I'd more change it to, "If the Griz are indeed struggling, this will be a very close contest, either way." I honestly think that, besides Arizona, the Jacks won't see a better defense than Montana's, and looking at their past games, they haven't "shined" offensively against good defensive teams like Sac St. and Weber St. In every other win, however, they've scored at least 34 points. In my opinion, if the UM Defense holds the Jacks like I know they can, Montana wins this game. However, if offense and defense show up and play to their ability, I'd agree that this one won't be close, with Montana by at least 2 scores, but realistically I still see this one being a very close game. Griz definitely have a chance to lose, but by no more than 7.

Also, I can't see Cal-Poly losing to ISU. Things went bad for PSU last week, and they never really got back into the game. I don't think ISU can carry that momentum against the Mustangs. However, I'm going to take PSU over Weber this week.

Fair assessment. Let me just add that I've seen NAU's offense and EWU's offense. For as good as Nichols and EWU is, NAU is better (my amateur opinion only). The Griz might find out that a good way to win this game is make sure Watson doesn't make it to Walkup. You do make some good points on the game, though. It will definitely be a great game to keep track of.

Also, just my opinon, I do think the home team will come out better than 1-4 this week. This late in the season, it is tough to win on the road within conference, regardless of who you are. EWU could struggle in Sacramento and MSU could get a tough game in Greeley. Weird things happen this late in conference play.

[mvemjsunpx]

3. UM/NAU---A lot of discussion on an "upset" pick. One has to admit that this is the toughest game the Griz have played all year. If the Jacks are true playoff contenders, they need to hold serve at home, and that includes against the mighty Griz. If the Griz are indeed struggling (as most of the country thinks they are), this will be no contest. If the previous Griz games were a situation where the Griz were playing to the level of their opponent, this game will be close and the Griz could win it. If the game was played in Missoula, a Griz victory no doubt. But to play at Flag-Town...The Jacks have the capability to win this game. A statement game for both, and NAU has more to lose.


That sounds good in theory, but the Lumberjacks typically play Montana worse in the Skydome than they do in Missoula.

Here are the Flagstaff results under Souers, all Griz wins:

2005: 23-0
2003: 59-21 (NAU favored to win)
2001: 38-27 (was 38-0)
1999: 42-23

[JALMOND]

That sounds good in theory, but the Lumberjacks typically play Montana worse in the Skydome than they do in Missoula.

Here are the Flagstaff results under Souers, all Griz wins:

2005: 23-0
2003: 59-21 (NAU favored to win)
2001: 38-27 (was 38-0)
1999: 42-23

Good point. This year we'll see what happens.

All the other weeks I've taken the Griz and this thread was pretty boring. I go against the Griz and we've all had some pretty good discussion. Maybe I'll continue to pick against the Griz. Who do they play next week? Portland State. Ugh! If I pick the Vikings, that would definitely be a homer pick. We'll see what happens in Flag before I decide on next week's games.

[already123]

NAU beats the griz once a decade. guess what year it is?

[Tod]

NAU beats the griz once a decade. guess what year it is?

2007?

xrolleyesx

We'll see. :)

[CopperCat]

2007?

xrolleyesx

We'll see. :)

An appearance by the increasingly elusive Tod!!!!xpeacex

Okay, back to WSU/PSU. WSU has a good defense, very aggressive and very physical. PSU still doesn't get the offensive firepower out of the offense that it needs to win. I'm taking WSU by 7 in that game, simply based on the notion that WSU has the defense to keep them on top. They've won some games recently, so I think they'll go into PGE Park and take another one.

[Peems]

Cal Poly will win I believe and PSU will struggle but I think they can pull it out, it will be close. NAU has a shot, I hope the Griz can win...

[JALMOND]

So we are starting the stretch run and there is some good football left to be played in the conference. The Grizzlies sit atop the standings undefeated, but these last four weeks will decide the race. Short and sweet, so let's get to this week's games. Currently, for the season I am 38-7 after last week's 3-2 finish. See if I can improve on that this week.

EWU @ Sac State---The Eagles return to conference play after stepping up a notch last week, going to FCS Brigham Young. The Hornets found out last week that life can be hard, especially in Bozeman. Both teams have shown an alarming tendency not to complete the games, losing in the final minutes. So let's stop the game halfway through the fourth...EWU 28, Sac State 21.

Cal Poly @ ISU---The Bengals surprised the conference with their win at home last week against Portland State. Will it give them confidence against Cal Poly from the Great West, who is currently undefeated against the Big Sky? A boost of confidence can go a long way, especially at home...ISU 30, Cal Poly 27.

MSU @ UNC---The Cat offense has arrived late this season, but in the nick of time to get a victory. The Cat defense gives a boost when it needs to. The Bears, well, they try...MSU 26, UNC 10.

WSU @ PSU---The Wildcat defense, at times carrying the whole team, broke down against NAU's high octane offense last week. This week finds them on the road, again facing a high profile offense in Portland State, who was embarrassed on the road at Idaho State last week. Which will give, the Weber D or PSU's O...PSU 34, WSU 17.

and the conference game of the week...

UM @ NAU---This will be the Grizzlies second road game all year. Throughout the year, the Jacks have shown to be a strong, offensive minded team, seemingly scoring points at will against all types of defenses. The Griz have struggled since starting conference play, except against UNC last week. Interesting intangible is that the Jacks coach, Saurs, has never beaten the Griz since becoming the Jacks head coach. Hail to the coach...NAU 45, UM 27.

Really going out on a limb this week, with three upsets in conference (ISU, PSU and NAU). But those are the only ones that I picked the home teams to win, and at this stage, if you do not protect your own turf, you deserve to lose. With the home field edge, all three should be close to a tossup by gametime. We'll see how they all pan out. Make or break weekend, for myself and the conference.

1-4 (ugh!). DuckDuck is serving me crow on the Oregon thread, maybe I should bring some over here. The home teams in the conference went 1-4, with the only home team winning was.....Northern Colorado. Weird week. Puts me at 39-11 overall. Bad week.

[bigskyrocks]

wow what a week, offense galore in portland, no nau offense, northern colorado wins...ya scary i know, the only normal thing was that isu lost to a team they should. i wouldnt want to be apart of bozeman this week

[FCS Go!]

wow what a week, offense galore in portland, no nau offense, northern colorado wins...ya scary i know, the only normal thing was that isu lost to a team they should. i wouldnt want to be apart of bozeman this week

480-something yards sounds like some offense to me. I think you meant no TDs until it was too late.

[Grizo406]

UM @ NAU---This will be the Grizzlies second road game all year. Throughout the year, the Jacks have shown to be a strong, offensive minded team, seemingly scoring points at will against all types of defenses. The Griz have struggled since starting conference play, except against UNC last week. Interesting intangible is that the Jacks coach, Saurs, has never beaten the Griz since becoming the Jacks head coach. Hail to the coach...NAU 45, UM 27.


"Hail to the coach" seems about right to me after this one!