Bracketology 2007

[TheValleyRaider]

It's back, and perhaps to the actual end of the regular season this time...

Bracketology is my weekly, late-season attempt to construct a playoff bracket, consider where teams stand based on their current results to-date, give people something interesting to talk about, and (most importantly) avoid homework.

Bracketology is a step-by-step process by which I try to use some semblance of methodology to build a bracket that makes sense within the confines of the Committee's regulations and restrictions.

The most important thing to remember about all this is that Bracketology is not a predictive tool. It's purpose is to examine the playoff field if the brackets were chosen today.

The first step is to gather the field of 16. First, the champions of the autobid conferences. These teams are the current leaders of their conference, complete with conference-specific tiebreakers if necessary, and use of overall record if everything else fails.
Autobids after 10/20 are:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Massachsetts*
Gateway: Northern Iowa
MEAC: Norfolk State**
OVC: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Elon***
Southland: McNeese State
*-Using all CAA tiebreakers, UMass and JMU remained completely tied. GPI used to break tie
**-MEAC tiebreakers could not be found, all records equal. Using GPI components, NSU leads DSU in total catagories led 6-5
***-SoCon tiebreakers could not be found. Elon beat Wofford, Wofford beat The Citadel, Elon and The Citadel have not played

Now the at-larges. Rather than simply picking the 8 at-larges that I feel like, I try to use a system of some sort. Much to the chagrin of some, I'm sure, I use the GPI. For 5 of the last 6 years, the GPI has correctly selected 7 of the 8 at-large teams for the playoff field. While some of you will immediately suggest last season as reason to avoid this, I consider 2006 an outlier, and will further discuss that in a later post. Thus, I will take the Top 8 remaining in the GPI, and add a "+1" who will take the place of 1 of the 8
The "8+1" are:
1-James Madison
2-Southern Illinois
3-New Hampshire
4-Appalachian State
5-Delaware
6-Wofford
7-Richmond
8-Hofstra
+1-Youngstown State
I chose Youngstown because the Penguins are the #9 at-large in the GPI, so it's easier for the first week, and because a 3rd Gateway team made more sense than a 4th SoCon or 7th CAA. I'll use them to replace Hofstra as again, 9 replacing 8 is easier, Hofstra did not look good in losing to the only quality team they've faced on their schedule this past week, and even 5 teams from one conference is unprecedented, let alone 6.

So the Field of 16 is:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Eastern Kentucky
Elon
Fordham
James Madison
Massachsetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Norfolk State
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford
Youngstown State

Next post will be seeding, home teams, and bracketing

[BlueHen86]

Good job so far.xthumbsupx Your results seem logical and well thought out.

[UNHWildCats]

better be careful, people are gonmna get crank you chose Norfolk State over Delaware State even though the spot is interchangeable depending on who wins the MEAC

[TheValleyRaider]

Now to set up the Brackets

As a reminder, our 16 Playoff teams are:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Eastern Kentucky
Elon
Fordham
James Madison
Massachsetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Norfolk State
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford
Youngstown State

Seeding
The Top 4 teams are seeded, and the seeds are made with an eye to Polls and GPI.
For the 4 seeded teams, I'll take:
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
UNI seems the obvious choice right now for #1. McNeese gets #2 over UMass due to remaining undefeated. I realize BC is a better FBS opponent than ULL, but undefeated is undefeated. Montana rates below both because of the weakness of their schedule and ranking. However, their being undefeated keeps them seeded over James Madison. This set up also gives us a nice East, South, Midwest, West breakdown.

Home Games
4 other teams are given home games, then matched with a seed for the 2nd Round. Home games are awarded on the basis of attendance and bids. Because I have little way of knowing what the bids of each school could be, I have only attendance and my own historically based guesses to go with. Games are matched with seeds looking at ranking, geography and conference-affiliation.
Home Games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Norfolk State
Youngstown State
This seemed pretty straightfoward, actually. These are the Top 4 teams in attendance this season remaining, and all seem likely to bid highly to attract home games. Norfolk State is the only one I would be unsure of, but for now, their high attendance will give them the benefit of the doubt. SIU and JMU, in particular, have a history of not bidding (or at least not bidding high enough) for home games, and I'd be hard-pressed to give one to either team.

Pairing up home teams, I'll go with:
1-Northern Iowa and Norfolk State
2-McNeese State and Delaware
3-Massachusetts and Youngstown State
4-Montana and Appalachian State
The only real "Midwest" team to match with UNI was YSU, and to avoid conferences, I made the lowest ranked team, Norfolk, match with #1. Otherwise, the geography pretty much works. Delaware is south enough for me to match with McNeese. Both YSU and ASU would have to get on planes for either Montana or UMass, so there I used rankings to give lower-seeded Montana the higher-ranked ASU.

First-Round Matchups
The first rule of pairing these games is to avoid conference matchups. After that, geography is used. Given the choice of plane or bus, the choice is always bus. If the choice in either case is the same will rankings be taken into consideration.
First-Round Matchups can look like:
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Elon at Northern Iowa
Fordham at Massachusetts
James Madison at Norfolk State
New Hampshire at Montana
Richmond at Youngstown State
Southern Illinois at Delaware
Wofford at McNeese State
This was tough, and no doubt people will have conflicting opinions about this. A couple, EKU at ASU and Fordham at UMass, were pretty straight-foward. UNH getting sent out to Montana was tough, but someone had to go, and they weren't close enough to anyone else. I sent JMU to Norfolk as a reward for being my #5, but really it could be either them or Richmond.

So with that, the bracket for this week would look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Elon

Norfolk State
James Madison

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Delaware
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Youngstown State
Richmond

The possibilities for your own changes are endless. Maybe you choose another "+1" team. Maybe you pick different seeds or different home teams. Very likely, you want to change the first-round matchups. Take your pick, make your selections, and see what you think.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Raider, are you having ice hockey withdrawal down there in the Lone Star State? ;) :D

Actually, using that hockey model Bracketology is a good idea because it is a picture based on today and doesn't attempt to predict games down the line. Each week it will get more accurate as more games are played.

[blur2005]

Now to set up the Brackets

As a reminder, our 16 Playoff teams are:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Eastern Kentucky
Elon
Fordham
James Madison
Massachsetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Norfolk State
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford
Youngstown State

Seeding
The Top 4 teams are seeded, and the seeds are made with an eye to Polls and GPI.
For the 4 seeded teams, I'll take:
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
UNI seems the obvious choice right now for #1. McNeese gets #2 over UMass due to remaining undefeated. I realize BC is a better FBS opponent than ULL, but undefeated is undefeated. Montana rates below both because of the weakness of their schedule and ranking. However, their being undefeated keeps them seeded over James Madison. This set up also gives us a nice East, South, Midwest, West breakdown.

Home Games
4 other teams are given home games, then matched with a seed for the 2nd Round. Home games are awarded on the basis of attendance and bids. Because I have little way of knowing what the bids of each school could be, I have only attendance and my own historically based guesses to go with. Games are matched with seeds looking at ranking, geography and conference-affiliation.
Home Games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Norfolk State
Youngstown State
This seemed pretty straightfoward, actually. These are the Top 4 teams in attendance this season remaining, and all seem likely to bid highly to attract home games. Norfolk State is the only one I would be unsure of, but for now, their high attendance will give them the benefit of the doubt. SIU and JMU, in particular, have a history of not bidding (or at least not bidding high enough) for home games, and I'd be hard-pressed to give one to either team.

Pairing up home teams, I'll go with:
1-Northern Iowa and Norfolk State
2-McNeese State and Delaware
3-Massachusetts and Youngstown State
4-Montana and Appalachian State
The only real "Midwest" team to match with UNI was YSU, and to avoid conferences, I made the lowest ranked team, Norfolk, match with #1. Otherwise, the geography pretty much works. Delaware is south enough for me to match with McNeese. Both YSU and ASU would have to get on planes for either Montana or UMass, so there I used rankings to give lower-seeded Montana the higher-ranked ASU.

First-Round Matchups
The first rule of pairing these games is to avoid conference matchups. After that, geography is used. Given the choice of plane or bus, the choice is always bus. If the choice in either case is the same will rankings be taken into consideration.
First-Round Matchups can look like:
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Elon at Northern Iowa
Fordham at Massachusetts
James Madison at Norfolk State
New Hampshire at Montana
Richmond at Youngstown State
Southern Illinois at Delaware
Wofford at McNeese State
This was tough, and no doubt people will have conflicting opinions about this. A couple, EKU at ASU and Fordham at UMass, were pretty straight-foward. UNH getting sent out to Montana was tough, but someone had to go, and they weren't close enough to anyone else. I sent JMU to Norfolk as a reward for being my #5, but really it could be either them or Richmond.

So with that, the bracket for this week would look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Elon

Norfolk State
James Madison

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Delaware
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Youngstown State
Richmond

The possibilities for your own changes are endless. Maybe you choose another "+1" team. Maybe you pick different seeds or different home teams. Very likely, you want to change the first-round matchups. Take your pick, make your selections, and see what you think.
I know the committee loves to job JMU with an away game but sending JMU on the road to Norfolk State? I'm pretty sure JMU will outbid Norfolk State to get a home game, as well as most others.

[TheValleyRaider]

As promised, a brief defense of the GPI in 2006.

Since the GPI's inception in 2000, it has correctly picked 7 of 8 playoff at-larges every year except 2. In 2000, it picked 8 of 8, and in 2006, it picked 5 of 8. Time may prove me to be wrong, but I will consider them both outliers, especially 2006.

In 2006, the GPI standings for at-larges looked like this:
y-JMU
y-UNH
y-Ill. St.
y-SIU
Port. St. 7-4
y-Furman
UNI 7-4
Wofford 7-4
y-CCU 9-2
y-Montana St 7-4
Towson 7-4
y-EIU 8-4

This covers the top at-large down to EIU, the lowest ranked at-large selected. Teams that do not participate in the playoffs, were not eligible, or did not have the required 7 D-I wins were already eliminated. Teams marked with a "y" got the bids.

I included records of all teams after the Top 4 to make my point. Those Top 4, plus Furman, were solid picks, and dissention from them was few and far between, if existent at all. It's the teams not chosen that I will consider briefly here.

Portland State went 7-4, but with 2 losses to I-A teams. The Vikings played a total of 3 I-A teams that year. This probably made it difficult to judge their overall strength, as I-A games are very hard to judge for the record. The one win was no doubt credited to their record, but otherwise, they still had 7 D-I wins, and 7-4 can easily put you in the back of the playoff line when people aren't sure of your strength. Their loss to 7-4 Montana State no doubt hurt them in the end as well.

Northern Iowa went 7-4. In addition to being 7-4, and therefore on the edge already, the Panthers lost at home to D-II North Dakota (a good D-II, but still a D-II), and finished the year slowly, going 2-2 in their last 4.

Wofford finished 7-4, which is pretty much the biggest mark against them. They would have been my biggest surprise miss.

Towson, in addition to finishing 7-4, the Tigers also closed the season going 1-2, which doesn't look very good. They would also have been the 4th A-10 team selected in a year where the A-10 did not appear to be definitively strong enough to support matching the maximum bids ever given.

2006 was a strange year, and I would be more likely to believe we'll see far more 9-2, 8-3 sides this year strong enough to dismiss 7-4 teams with tough schedules. At the end of the day, you are what your record says you are xtwocentsx

[TheValleyRaider]

Raider, are you having ice hockey withdrawal down there in the Lone Star State? ;) :D

Actually, using that hockey model Bracketology is a good idea because it is a picture based on today and doesn't attempt to predict games down the line. Each week it will get more accurate as more games are played.

That's exactly where I got the idea from when I started doing this in 2005 xnodx xthumbsupx

A great model, and always an interesting read as the season progresses


I know the committee loves to job JMU with an away game but sending JMU on the road to Norfolk State? I'm pretty sure JMU will outbid Norfolk State to get a home game, as well as most others.

I'm gonna bet that it's not a case of the Committee having it out for the Dukes and simply a case of them not bidding high enough. Now, I know JMU has been putting more and more in their program than in years past, and this year it would probably include a home game bid. Until I see the evidence in the bid (i.e. an awarded home game), however, I'm not ready to believe it yet xpeacex


better be careful, people are gonmna get crank you chose Norfolk State over Delaware State even though the spot is interchangeable depending on who wins the MEAC

Yeah, although I really have no idea which one to pick at this point. Their records are pretty much equal, and I couldn't find the MEAC tiebreaker on their website.

If someone wants to let me in on what it is, along with those for the SoCon, I'd be more than willing to use them for next week xnodx

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Montana! Holy snikees, you're giving me a long drive from FL Raider!! Oh well, I have wanted to try that Moose Drool brewski!! ;) xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[th0m]

Montana! Holy snikees, you're giving me a long drive from FL Raider!! Oh well, I have wanted to try that Moose Drool brewski!! ;) xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

Hey UMass had to go out there in the playoffs there as well last year, why don't you ask them how they liked it xlolx

[UNHWildCats]

I Like the idea that over the course of the Playoffs UNH can avenge its 2004, 05 and 06 playoff losses on its way to the National Championship

[appfan2008]

hey valley...


wow what a great job... you really explained well all of your reasoning behind everything you said and i must say i do agree with every bit of it! it was a very fun read and i cant wait for an updated one next week... other people put out their brackets with little or no explanation but yours was truly a great and deep explanation and that was awesome...

keep up the good work and i cant wait to see the updated brackets next week

[Intrepid]

MEAC Tie-Breaker...

Two-Team or Multiple-Team Tie – If the tied teams played
each other, head-to-head competition will be used to
determine the representative. For multiple ties, head-to-head
record vs. all teams tied.

If a tie still exits then the following shall be used:
a.) Count six (6) points for a win against a Division I-A
team;

b.) Count four (4) points for a non-conference Division IAA
win;

c.) Count one (1) point for a win against a Division II
team, OR, subtract a point for a loss against a
Division II team;

d.) Coin Toss

The team with the highest point total shall be the Automatic
Qualifier for the NCAA Playoffs or the specified Bowl game,
whichever is applicable.

[JmuSkinsfan]

I really liked what you did with this. I haven't been around in years past to see this done so kudos. Of course, the only thing I have to disagree with you on is this....

Last year JMU was ranked #6 after the regular season (and were technically ranked #5 since NDSU wasn't playoff eligible). Assuming we are going by how things are currently stacked, which I believe you did specify, JMU would be in the same position they were in last year (#5 overall of playoff eligible teams)...

However, I think so much was made of our traveling to YSU last year in round one (#5 AT #4), that the committee will certainly have to make it up to us. I understand the involvement of money in these bidding wars, but it isn't like JMU has low attendance. We sell out every game and average about 16,000...and would probably draw more if our stadium was larger (and it will be in a few years, one of the biggest in FCS hopefully). I understand your logic, not wanting to give JMU a home game due to recent bidding history, but let me assure you that our administration will not low-ball the bid this year and will do their best to get a home game if we aren't seeded. And I also think that the committee will be a little less likely to shaft us again, as I'm sure they are getting sick of hearing it from JMU-land.

Anyway, that is my rant...sorry and thanks for listening. Everything else makes complete sense, but just make Norfolk State come to JMU...the committee wouldn't want to subject the Norfolk home fans to an embarrassing home playoff loss anyway :)

[TheValleyRaider]

MEAC Tie-Breaker...

Two-Team or Multiple-Team Tie – If the tied teams played
each other, head-to-head competition will be used to
determine the representative. For multiple ties, head-to-head
record vs. all teams tied.

If a tie still exits then the following shall be used:
a.) Count six (6) points for a win against a Division I-A
team;

b.) Count four (4) points for a non-conference Division IAA
win;

c.) Count one (1) point for a win against a Division II
team, OR, subtract a point for a loss against a
Division II team;

d.) Coin Toss

The team with the highest point total shall be the Automatic
Qualifier for the NCAA Playoffs or the specified Bowl game,
whichever is applicable.

Awesome

Thanks xthumbsupx

Although looking at this, I think DSU and NSU are still tied xchinscratchx

[skinny_uncle]

1-Northern Iowa
Elon

Norfolk State
James Madison

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Delaware
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Youngstown State
Richmond

With only UNI, Montana and McNeese from west of the Mississippi, how long until the cry of East Coast Bias is heard?

[UNHWildCats]

With only UNI, Montana and McNeese from west of the Mississippi, how long until the cry of East Coast Bias is heard?
Well when everyone else west of the Mississippi either sucks or wont be playoff eligible its a meaningless whine :p

[DTSpider]

However, I think so much was made of our traveling to YSU last year in round one (#5 AT #4), that the committee will certainly have to make it up to us. I understand the involvement of money in these bidding wars, but it isn't like JMU has low attendance. We sell out every game and average about 16,000...and would probably draw more if our stadium was larger (and it will be in a few years, one of the biggest in FCS hopefully). I understand your logic, not wanting to give JMU a home game due to recent bidding history, but let me assure you that our administration will not low-ball the bid this year and will do their best to get a home game if we aren't seeded. And I also think that the committee will be a little less likely to shaft us again, as I'm sure they are getting sick of hearing it from JMU-land.


The only thing the committe cares about is money. It's kind of backwards, but in the playoffs UR has always played at home (unless playing a seed) as UR can outbid most schools with the "big" stadium. Now, it takes the administration being willing to shell out money for any lost attendance, but if nothing else, UR has money to throw around. Since I was a student, UR outbid Lehigh, YSU & Furman for games. Ironically, JMU outbid none of those schools. Money talks. Of course, once JMU builds up their stadium, they will start to get more home games assuming they bid the full capacity.

[DTSpider]

I like the analysis, but will wait judgment on UR. Too many tough tests down the road to even think about playoffs yet.

[Houndawg]

Now to set up the Brackets

As a reminder, our 16 Playoff teams are:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Eastern Kentucky
Elon
Fordham
James Madison
Massachsetts
McNeese State
Montana
New Hampshire
Norfolk State
Northern Iowa
Richmond
Southern Illinois
Wofford
Youngstown State

Seeding
The Top 4 teams are seeded, and the seeds are made with an eye to Polls and GPI.
For the 4 seeded teams, I'll take:
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Massachusetts
4-Montana
UNI seems the obvious choice right now for #1. McNeese gets #2 over UMass due to remaining undefeated. I realize BC is a better FBS opponent than ULL, but undefeated is undefeated. Montana rates below both because of the weakness of their schedule and ranking. However, their being undefeated keeps them seeded over James Madison. This set up also gives us a nice East, South, Midwest, West breakdown.

Home Games
4 other teams are given home games, then matched with a seed for the 2nd Round. Home games are awarded on the basis of attendance and bids. Because I have little way of knowing what the bids of each school could be, I have only attendance and my own historically based guesses to go with. Games are matched with seeds looking at ranking, geography and conference-affiliation.
Home Games go to:
Appalachian State
Delaware
Norfolk State
Youngstown State
This seemed pretty straightfoward, actually. These are the Top 4 teams in attendance this season remaining, and all seem likely to bid highly to attract home games. Norfolk State is the only one I would be unsure of, but for now, their high attendance will give them the benefit of the doubt. SIU and JMU, in particular, have a history of not bidding (or at least not bidding high enough) for home games, and I'd be hard-pressed to give one to either team.

Pairing up home teams, I'll go with:
1-Northern Iowa and Norfolk State
2-McNeese State and Delaware
3-Massachusetts and Youngstown State
4-Montana and Appalachian State
The only real "Midwest" team to match with UNI was YSU, and to avoid conferences, I made the lowest ranked team, Norfolk, match with #1. Otherwise, the geography pretty much works. Delaware is south enough for me to match with McNeese. Both YSU and ASU would have to get on planes for either Montana or UMass, so there I used rankings to give lower-seeded Montana the higher-ranked ASU.

First-Round Matchups
The first rule of pairing these games is to avoid conference matchups. After that, geography is used. Given the choice of plane or bus, the choice is always bus. If the choice in either case is the same will rankings be taken into consideration.
First-Round Matchups can look like:
Eastern Kentucky at Appalachian State
Elon at Northern Iowa
Fordham at Massachusetts
James Madison at Norfolk State
New Hampshire at Montana
Richmond at Youngstown State
Southern Illinois at Delaware
Wofford at McNeese State
This was tough, and no doubt people will have conflicting opinions about this. A couple, EKU at ASU and Fordham at UMass, were pretty straight-foward. UNH getting sent out to Montana was tough, but someone had to go, and they weren't close enough to anyone else. I sent JMU to Norfolk as a reward for being my #5, but really it could be either them or Richmond.

So with that, the bracket for this week would look something like this:
1-Northern Iowa
Elon

Norfolk State
James Madison

4-Montana
New Hampshire

Appalachian State
Eastern Kentucky

2-McNeese State
Wofford

Delaware
Southern Illinois

3-Massachusetts
Fordham

Youngstown State
Richmond

The possibilities for your own changes are endless. Maybe you choose another "+1" team. Maybe you pick different seeds or different home teams. Very likely, you want to change the first-round matchups. Take your pick, make your selections, and see what you think.

Pretty well done, sir. Geographically speaking, wouldn't SIU @ Montana and UNH @ Delaware be a little closer for everybody?

[Tillou]

With only UNI, Montana and McNeese from west of the Mississippi, how long until the cry of East Coast Bias is heard?

Well we need to make up from the bias with the FBS some how xlolx

Anyone think Nicholls as a shot of making the playoffs IF they win out?

As far as my bracket.....no idea. With the way this football season is going, who knows.

[Chi Panther]

Pretty well done, sir. Geographically speaking, wouldn't SIU @ Montana and UNH @ Delaware be a little closer for everybody?

Conf teams don't play each other in first round....

[DB_Atlantic10]

I know the committee loves to job JMU with an away game but sending JMU on the road to Norfolk State? I'm pretty sure JMU will outbid Norfolk State to get a home game, as well as most others.Dude, why do you insist on this...unless JMU outright wins a seed, we will be traveling.... We are not going to outbid anyone!!xnonono2x

[AZGrizFan]

You've lost all credibility from the get-go if you can sit there with a straight face and say that the sixth best team in the CAA is better than the 2nd place team in the Big Sky.

Have we all already forgotten what Montana State did to SoCon powerhouse Furman last year?

xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx xsmhx

The inherent flaw in the GPI is that teams that play a I-A game automatically get moved up the GPI based on SOS. Almost doesn't matter how they do in that game. Using the GPI as your sole method of slotting teams is a joke, IMHO.

[TheValleyRaider]

You've lost all credibility from the get-go if you can sit there with a straight face and say that the sixth best team in the CAA is better than the 2nd place team in the Big Sky.

I'm already on record in another thread saying the Big Sky will get 2 teams in.

But as of right now, none of them have a total performance record that puts them above the 8 teams listed.

You got a better system, go for it xpeacex

[GeauxLions94]

Well we need to make up from the bias with the FBS some how xlolx

Anyone think Nicholls as a shot of making the playoffs IF they win out?

As far as my bracket.....no idea. With the way this football season is going, who knows.

If you win out to finish 9-2 (7 DI wins) with only losses to Nevada (FBS) and McNeese State ... you'll probably be playing in Missoula.

[UCAMonkey]

If Appalachian gets beat again will 3 losses keep them out of the playoffs?

[th0m]

It depends on what the rest of the SoCon and the FCS in general does, but I think they would not be left out. And the third loss would have to be against The Citadel.

[skinny_uncle]

Pretty well done, sir. Geographically speaking, wouldn't SIU @ Montana and UNH @ Delaware be a little closer for everybody?

I'm sure SIU would be thrilled to be traveling 2000 miles instead of 1000. You buying the gas?

[Houndawg]

I'm sure SIU would be thrilled to be traveling 2000 miles instead of 1000. You buying the gas?

Sure, you take a check? My bad I forgot UNH and Delaware were in the same conference.

[WVAPPmountaineer]

You've lost all credibility from the get-go if you can sit there with a straight face and say that the sixth best team in the CAA is better than the 2nd place team in the Big Sky.

Have we all already forgotten what Montana State did to SoCon powerhouse Furman last year?

I definitely agree that the Big Sky would deserve at least 2 teams (of course dependent on final records) - I have seen many powerhouse teams come into Boone over the last few years (and I do know things change from year to year but there is usually a trend) but the two teams that to me were much better than I expected were both from the Big Sky - Montana State last year and N. Arizona this year

[Cranium716]

If Appalachian gets beat again will 3 losses keep them out of the playoffs?

If you haven't heard, App St beat Michigan, so they could lose all of their remaining games and make the playoffs. xlolx xlolx xlolx

[AZGrizFan]

I definitely agree that the Big Sky would deserve at least 2 teams (of course dependent on final records) - I have seen many powerhouse teams come into Boone over the last few years (and I do know things change from year to year but there is usually a trend) but the two teams that to me were much better than I expected were both from the Big Sky - Montana State last year and N. Arizona this year

We shall change the world's opinion......one FCS fan at a time....


xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

[Mountain Panther]

We shall change the world's opinion......one FCS fan at a time....


xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

Are there winged swine soaring above your office right now?

[FCS Go!]

Are there winged swine soaring above your office right now?

Winged swine are quite common in the mountains. You really should spend more time experiencing the great outdoors!

[Ronin]

Very well organized and will probably be the way the committee decides if it was held today.

However, I would question a few choices made.

1) Seeding an unbeaten team from a weak conference over a beaten team from a very strong conference (Montana over Elon, ASU, SIU, JMU...) Seems to penalize the team facing competion and rewarding the one with an easy schedule.

2) First round matchups didn't make much sense to me. So I took the GPI, Media poll, Coaches poll, Sagarin and Dunkel and did an average for rankings. The list is as follows.

UNI 1.20
Umass 3.60
SIU 5.60
McNeese 5.75
JMU 6.40
ASU 8.00
UNH 8.40
Montana 8.80
Delaware 10.40
Wofford 11.40
Richmond 12.60
Elon 13.20
EKU 18.80
Youngstown 19.60
Norfolk 33.00
Fordham 43.67

Based on this I couldn't see having the same four seeded teams. Nor could I see having in essence the following matchups 1 plays 12 @ home, 2 plays 16 @ home, 4 plays 10 @ home and 8 plays 7 @ home.

Alternate matchup would be: Bold home team

UNI vs Fordham
Umass vs Norfolk
SIU vs EKU
McNeese vs Youngstown

[Ronin]

As for the other games.

JMU vs Elon
ASU vs Richmond
UNH vs Wofford
Montana vs Delaware

Of course an argument could be made on some of the at-large berths. But this would take more time than I am willing to give at this point in determining who is in and who is out.

[UMass922]

Very well organized and will probably be the way the committee decides if it was held today.

However, I would question a few choices made.

1) Seeding an unbeaten team from a weak conference over a beaten team from a very strong conference (Montana over Elon, ASU, SIU, JMU...) Seems to penalize the team facing competion and rewarding the one with an easy schedule.

2) First round matchups didn't make much sense to me. So I took the GPI, Media poll, Coaches poll, Sagarin and Dunkel and did an average for rankings. The list is as follows.

UNI 1.20
Umass 3.60
SIU 5.60
McNeese 5.75
JMU 6.40
ASU 8.00
UNH 8.40
Montana 8.80
Delaware 10.40
Wofford 11.40
Richmond 12.60
Elon 13.20
EKU 18.80
Youngstown 19.60
Norfolk 33.00
Fordham 43.67

Based on this I couldn't see having the same four seeded teams. Nor could I see having in essence the following matchups 1 plays 12 @ home, 2 plays 16 @ home, 4 plays 10 @ home and 8 plays 7 @ home.

Alternate matchup would be: Bold home team

UNI vs Fordham
Umass vs Norfolk
SIU vs EKU
McNeese vs Youngstown

Geography/travel is the committee's primary criterion in determining first-round matchups. They will not send Fordham to Iowa when they can send them to Massachusetts instead. That's just how it works. The playoffs used to be seeded 1-16 (at least as late as '99), but not anymore. Reducing the seeds to just four gave the committee more flexibility in creating matchups that would minimize travel costs.

[JMU_Fan_2007]

No-one seems to remember that JMU-YSU last year was the made-for-ESPN first round game. I was at the JMU selection party, and the first thing Mickey Matthews said when he saw the draw was that the game would be on national TV. And it was. The JMU administration was confident they outbid the vast majority of teams. Is there ever a way to find out what school's bids were?

The playoff selection committee can sometimes pick exposure over money.

[bigskyrocks]

not that im sticking up for montanas week schedule but the big sky is not walk in the park, other then Northern colorado its a mess the top 8 teams all with in 3 games of each other, even sac st has beaten psu, psu beat ewu, ewu almost beat montana and did beat msu so teams in the big sky are a "cakewalk' anymore as for the rest of the game southern utah, 5 of there 7 games were against top 25 teams, they are probably the best 0-7 team there is. albany does have a winning record with a win over fordham. and well fort lewis is just weak. i can see taking a undeafeted montana team over a 1 loss "very strong" conference team montana started at no 2 and have done what was expected and won sure it wasnt by as much as people would like but they still won, in my opionion the top 4 seeds should go to montana, norther iowa, mcneese, and UMass (there only loss being to boston college) and then go from there but since no one seems to think the big sky is a "stong" conference you guys can do you thing ill do mine and well see who the committee picks come playoff time

[Petrie Dish]

Aren't the pairings made before they look at the bids?

[FCS Go!]

Aren't the pairings made before they look at the bids?

I think that it is the at-larges that are picked before looking at the bids.

[TheValleyRaider]

1) Seeding an unbeaten team from a weak conference over a beaten team from a very strong conference (Montana over Elon, ASU, SIU, JMU...) Seems to penalize the team facing competion and rewarding the one with an easy schedule.
UNI 1.20
Umass 3.60
SIU 5.60
McNeese 5.75

Those are a legitimate 4 seeds. SIU would definately be a side I'd consider along with JMU for that last guaranteed game. In my mind, at least, the Committee values an Undefeated season very highly, and a team from the Big Sky that goes Undefeated is going to be seeded, unless maybe there are 4 other big conference undefeateds.

I do, however, take some exception to the characterization of the Big Sky as a "weak conference". Montana, Montana St., EWU and NAU are all solid sides, and certainly create a tougher conference than you're giving them credit for. I do not say this just because AZ Griz tried to call me on it yesterday ;), but rather because the Big Sky is hardly the Patriot League or OVC like you're trying to characterize it as. Underestimate an undefeated Big Sky team at your own peril

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

The only thing the committe cares about is money. It's kind of backwards, but in the playoffs UR has always played at home (unless playing a seed) as UR can outbid most schools with the "big" stadium. Now, it takes the administration being willing to shell out money for any lost attendance, but if nothing else, UR has money to throw around. Since I was a student, UR outbid Lehigh, YSU & Furman for games. Ironically, JMU outbid none of those schools. Money talks. Of course, once JMU builds up their stadium, they will start to get more home games assuming they bid the full capacity.

Just a few points/questions.

*What is the full capacity?
*I remember Furman coming to Richmond a few years back - What was the attendance at that game.......seems like it was a low turn out.
*I believe UR plans to build a football stadium on campus....correct me if I'm wrong....isn't it suppose to be rather small?

[placidlakegriz]

Montana! Holy snikees, you're giving me a long drive from FL Raider!! Oh well, I have wanted to try that Moose Drool brewski!! ;) xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx


You come, I'll buy!

[skinny_uncle]

Those are a legitimate 4 seeds. SIU would definately be a side I'd consider along with JMU for that last guaranteed game. In my mind, at least, the Committee values an Undefeated season very highly, and a team from the Big Sky that goes Undefeated is going to be seeded, unless maybe there are 4 other big conference undefeateds.

I do, however, take some exception to the characterization of the Big Sky as a "weak conference". Montana, Montana St., EWU and NAU are all solid sides, and certainly create a tougher conference than you're giving them credit for. I do not say this just because AZ Griz tried to call me on it yesterday ;), but rather because the Big Sky is hardly the Patriot League or OVC like you're trying to characterize it as. Underestimate an undefeated Big Sky team at your own peril
Weak is a relative thing. Massey ranks the Big Sky seventh among FCS conferences. The GPI ranks them sixth. I don't think you can call a conference in the top half of the division "weak". They are definitely better than the OVC.

[appfan2008]

Weak is a relative thing. Massey ranks the Big Sky seventh among FCS conferences. The GPI ranks them sixth. I don't think you can call a conference in the top half of the division "weak". They are definitely better than the OVC.

Ranked sixth or seventh sure isnt very strong either

[dbackjon]

Ranked sixth or seventh sure isnt very strong either

The bottom third of the Big Sky is very weak. This doesn't affect the top half, which would be competitive in any league.

[AZGrizFan]

not that im sticking up for montanas week schedule but the big sky is not walk in the park, other then Northern colorado its a mess the top 8 teams all with in 3 games of each other, even sac st has beaten psu, psu beat ewu, ewu almost beat montana and did beat msu so teams in the big sky are a "cakewalk' anymore as for the rest of the game southern utah, 5 of there 7 games were against top 25 teams, they are probably the best 0-7 team there is. albany does have a winning record with a win over fordham. and well fort lewis is just weak. i can see taking a undeafeted montana team over a 1 loss "very strong" conference team montana started at no 2 and have done what was expected and won sure it wasnt by as much as people would like but they still won, in my opionion the top 4 seeds should go to montana, norther iowa, mcneese, and UMass (there only loss being to boston college) and then go from there but since no one seems to think the big sky is a "stong" conference you guys can do you thing ill do mine and well see who the committee picks come playoff time

feel free to mix in some punctuation occasionally....xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex xcoffeex

[skinny_uncle]

Ranked sixth or seventh sure isnt very strong either

Can we compromise on mediocre? It seems more accurate than weak.
xcoolx

[FanOfAllThatIsJMU]

The only thing the committe cares about is money. It's kind of backwards, but in the playoffs UR has always played at home (unless playing a seed) as UR can outbid most schools with the "big" stadium. Now, it takes the administration being willing to shell out money for any lost attendance, but if nothing else, UR has money to throw around. Since I was a student, UR outbid Lehigh, YSU & Furman for games. Ironically, JMU outbid none of those schools. Money talks. Of course, once JMU builds up their stadium, they will start to get more home games assuming they bid the full capacity.

The only bid we "lost" was Lehigh. We were at a seed for all those other games.

[DTSpider]

Just a few points/questions.

*What is the full capacity?
*I remember Furman coming to Richmond a few years back - What was the attendance at that game.......seems like it was a low turn out.
*I believe UR plans to build a football stadium on campus....correct me if I'm wrong....isn't it suppose to be rather small?

Current capacity is now 22,000. It used to be 24,000 but they renumbered the seats, supposedly to give more space. It works out to 16,000 for the home bleachers & 6,000 for the wrap around visitor's side.

I think official Furman count was 10,000. However, I'd think most people would agree it looked to be more than 50% full. However, UR does not count students, player comps (4 tickets per player from both teams), or discounted tickets (youth for example oly count as 1/3 of a person). The RTD did a piece a few years ago about this change and how UR's average went down a few thousand people.

Think back to last year for JMU, official count of 11,000. I think anyone there would say it was over 50% full.

The new stadium has to be less than the Robins Center due to City restrictions, so it'll be around 9,000. OF course, the City has also said that if UR keeps drawing more to the current site, than it knows that the new stadium will be too small and won't approve it. Really pretty awful, but what can you do. The City apparently wants UR to buy the current location for somewhere north of $5 million. A lot of money for such an old facility.

[Ronin]

Weak is a relative thing. Massey ranks the Big Sky seventh among FCS conferences. The GPI ranks them sixth. I don't think you can call a conference in the top half of the division "weak". They are definitely better than the OVC.

I was referring to weak in comparison to the other conferences represented. I easily concede that the BigSky is better than the Patriot or OVC.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Does anyone else get the feeling that there are going to be at least several teams that are going feel "woofed" come November 18th?

[lizrdgizrd]

Does anyone else get the feeling that there are going to be at least several teams that are going feel "woofed" come November 18th?
Lots of football to be played before then. I have a feeling some of the potential woofed will be completely out of it.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

Does anyone else get the feeling that there are going to be at least several teams that are going feel "woofed" come November 18th?

Sure....there will be teams........

[siugrad99]

Sorry Raider, but your a bit off on SIU. They did bid well for their opening round game last season and got a home game. IF SIU wins out there is no way they go on the road in the opening round.Even if we lose 1 game I still think Mario puts up the $ to get us a home game. There is also a possibility of a amazing sports weekend in Carbondale if the Dawgs can win a 1st round game as that would set up the chance of an SIU Football home playoff game & the SIU vs Indiana basketball game on the same day! Fingers Crossed Fingers Crossed.

[Houndawg]

Sorry Raider, but your a bit off on SIU. They did bid well for their opening round game last season and got a home game. IF SIU wins out there is no way they go on the road in the opening round.Even if we lose 1 game I still think Mario puts up the $ to get us a home game. There is also a possibility of a amazing sports weekend in Carbondale if the Dawgs can win a 1st round game as that would set up the chance of an SIU Football home playoff game & the SIU vs Indiana basketball game on the same day! Fingers Crossed Fingers Crossed.


Mario damn sure better unass the ducats for a home game, some of those true freshmen that weren't red-shirted make me think that the coaches think that this is the year.