2007 FCS playoff at-large eligibility (Week 2)

[grizband]

Here is this week's update list of the FCS teams who are still capable of reaching the 7 Division I game plateau for at-large playoff berths. The teams listed in bold need to win their remaining games to reach the 7 win mark. Remember, this doesn't take into account auto-bids, so a team not listed here may still be eligible for the playoffs. Also, the list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the possibility of the teams selected. I will update the list each week, for the rest of this season, to give the readers of AGS an idea of who could be awarded the at-large playoff bids.

Big Sky
Montana 4-0 7-0
Northern Arizona 4-1 5-3
Montana State 3-1 5-2
Eastern Washington 2-2 4-3

Big South
Gardner-Webb 1-0 3-4

CAA
James Madison 4-0 6-1
Massachusetts 4-0 6-1
Delaware 4-1 6-1
Hofstra 3-1 6-1
New Hampshire 2-2 5-2
Richmond 3-1 5-2
Villanova 2-2 4-3
William & Mary 2-2 4-3

Gateway
Northern Iowa 3-0 7-0
Southern Illinois 3-1 7-1
Western Illinois 2-1 5-3
Illinois State 2-2 4-4
Youngstown State 1-2 5-3

Great West
Cal Poly 1-1 4-3

Metro Atlantic Athletic
Duquesne 1-0 5-2

Mid-Eastern Athletic
Norfolk State 5-0 6-1
Delaware State 5-0 6-1
South Carolina State 4-1 4-3
Hampton 3-3 4-3
Morgan State 3-3 4-4

Northeast
Central Connecticut State 3-0 5-2
Albany 1-0 3-3
Wagner 3-1 5-2

Ohio Valley
Eastern Kentucky 5-0 6-2
Jacksonville State 4-1 5-3
Eastern Illinois 4-1 5-3
Tennessee State 2-1 3-4
Austin Peay 3-2 5-3

Patriot
Fordham 4-0 6-2
Holy Cross 2-0 5-2
Lafayette 1-1 4-3
Colgate 1-1 4-3
Lehigh 0-2 3-4

Pioneer
San Diego 4-0 7-0
Dayton 3-1 7-1
Morehead State 3-1 5-2

Southern
Wofford 3-1 6-2
Citadel 3-1 5-2
Elon 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 2-2 5-2
Appalachian State 1-2 5-2

Southland
McNeese State 3-0 7-0
Nicholls State 2-1 5-2

[TexasTerror]

Thanks for supplying this list as always...

Nicholls St, a team I've been very high on being an at-large, is on the ropes. They have a good chance at winning out as they now have McNeese behind them, but the road in the SLC is a rough one...

[Khan4Cats]

Looks right by what I have. Lot of shake-up going on. It looks like the CAA and Southern have the best chances at multiple at-larges, haven't looked at how schedules play out to see if more in-conference cannibalism will reduce those numbers.

Gateway looks like a two-team conference, same with Big Sky.
Southland might get a second if Nicholls can run the table from here.
Patriot, MEAC, and OVC might all still have shots at multiple bids since 3 of the "Big 5" are not lloking like they will have enough quality, qualifying teams. The question is will the committee take a 7-4 team from one of the "Big 5" over an 8-3 from one of the others.



And I'm actually willing to give a brief mention of San Diego if they run the table at 11-0.

[TexasTerror]

Patriot, MEAC, and OVC might all still have shots at multiple bids since 3 of the "Big 5" are not lloking like they will have enough quality, qualifying teams. The question is will the committee take a 7-4 team from one of the "Big 5" over an 8-3 from one of the others.

I've been saying all along that the MEAC should get two teams this year with Norfolk St and Delaware St.

OVC, I have not really looked into as a viable option for two teams, but if two teams clearly emerge, it would possibly open that door.

Question...does a 8-3 Holy Cross team get in?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Question...does a 8-3 Holy Cross team get in?

An excellent question. No dishonor in their two losses to UMass and Yale, but they would be hanging their hat on one good out-of-conference win (Harvard) and would have lost to an unranked team in league play (realistically) in Fordham, Colgate or Lafayette. Like Jacksonville State's chances, it would come down to other eligible teams.

Fortunately for them and Jacksonville State, Cal Poly's loss, Youngstown's upset and Western Illinois' loss will shake things up in the at-large races quite a bit, perhaps opening some slots.

[UDBlueLotFan]

No way the MEAC gets two.xrolleyesx With the way the SoCon and CAA are beating up one another, there are too many at-larges that'll come from these two conferencesxbowx to get two MEAC in.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

A couple more comments. Iona cannot qualify since even if they win out they will only have 6 D-I wins. And Lehigh is 0-2 in conference play.

Isn't South Carolina State's win over Winston-Salem State considered a win over a transitional team? Also, are wins over Central Arkansas treated the same way for Southland teams?

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Two MEAC teams might get in, but they shouldn't. Their league and OOC schedules hardly warrant them another bid. But more power to them if they both make it. In the end I am guessing only Del St. gets in with the autobid. I don't see Norfolk St. winning that game.

Also, I think records will be such that the question will be does a 9-2 weak conference team deserve to get in over an 8-3 strong conference team. Lots of top heavy leagues this year.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

No way the MEAC gets two.xrolleyesx With the way the SoCon and CAA are beating up one another, there are too many at-larges that'll come from these two conferencesxbowx to get two MEAC in.

I would have agreed with you until seeing this weekend's upsets of YSU and Cal Poly. If Cal Poly loses to North Dakota State, they are out of the at-large race completely, and the Gateway may actually only get one at-large team if both Western Illinois and Youngstown State both lose once, and they have yet to play each other. Furthermore, Youngstown still has to play UNI. That's two more slots, and a 9-2 Norfolk State or 9-2 Delaware State (with one of their losses coming to Rutgers and Kent State respectively) would have to get very strong consideration. I agree, two would be impossible, but one at-large isn't a bad possibility

[TexasTerror]

Isn't South Carolina State's win over Winston-Salem State considered a win over a transitional team? Also, are wins over Central Arkansas treated the same way for Southland teams?

Wins over WSSU and UCA count this year. Last year, they did not as they were in year one. Year two, it counts -- hence, why UCA played as a 'counter' against LA Tech this year. Wins over NCCU and Presbyterian do not count...

[Khan4Cats]

A couple more comments. Iona cannot qualify since even if they win out they will only have 6 D-I wins. And Lehigh is 0-2 in conference play.

Isn't South Carolina State's win over Winston-Salem State considered a win over a transitional team? Also, are wins over Central Arkansas treated the same way for Southland teams?

I think you're right on Iona.

I believe wins over Winston-Salem State and Central Arkansas count as D-I wins this year, same as beating South Dakota State or, if any one can-Cal Poly, North Dakota State.

[TexasTerror]

No way the MEAC gets two.xrolleyesx With the way the SoCon and CAA are beating up one another, there are too many at-larges that'll come from these two conferencesxbowx to get two MEAC in.

MEAC will get two in if DelSt and NSU take care of what they have to do. The "big leagues" (as they are referred to as some) are knocking each other out of the playoffs each week -- as seen in the Gateway especially...

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton is 3-1 in the PFL and 7-1 overall. ( 5-1 in FCS ).

[Khan4Cats]

Dayton is 3-1 in the PFL and 7-1 overall. ( 5-1 in FCS ).

Sorry, don't see Dayton as having much of a chance at all. Most they can get to is 8 D-I wins, San Diego could get to 10 D-I wins, including over scholarship teams UC-Davis and Northern Arizona. That might get them in the mix of discussion. I don't see the Flyers getting that far, but they could knock off San Diego and likely take them out of the mix as well.xthumbsupx

[bluehenbillk]

I can't agree with the MEAC getting 2 teams in, what's Norfolk St or DelState going to present as their top quality wins on an at-large basis??

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton has a win over Fordham, who has an excellent shot at the PL AQ. We would have to win out, ( San Diego, Butler, Drake ), to be in the mix.... Frankly, defeating USD is not likely, which will end the discussion.

We should beat Butler, but Drake, at Drake will be tough. We will be doing well to get to 7, D-I wins....

On a side note, IF USD wins out, and IF they get a playoff bid, second place in the PFL takes on some meaning as the second place team would host the NEC champion in the Gridiron Classic....

[dbackjon]

Sorry, don't see Dayton as having much of a chance at all. Most they can get to is 8 D-I wins, San Diego could get to 10 D-I wins, including over scholarship teams UC-Davis and Northern Arizona. That might get them in the mix of discussion. I don't see the Flyers getting that far, but they could knock off San Diego and likely take them out of the mix as well.xthumbsupx

Northern Colorado, not Northern Arizona.

San Diego wouldn't stand a chance against NAU.

[grizband]

Thanks for the corrections, guys. I will update the list at home, after work.

[TheValleyRaider]

Just some hunches based on what I see right here


Big Sky
Montana 4-0 7-0
Northern Arizona 4-1 5-3
Montana State 3-1 5-2
Eastern Washington 2-2 4-3

Right now, it looks like Montana and 1 other. NAU still has the other 3 left to play, and I have a hard time seeing them run the table in a row like that. Could happen though, we'll see. If it does, Montana State becomes a bubble team at best, unless they beat Montana. That could be potentially 3 Big Sky teams, but I'll guess only 2 for now.


Big South
Gardner-Webb 1-0 3-4

Yeah, would be a nice season for GW if they got the 7 wins, but playoffs? No


CAA
James Madison 4-0 6-1
Delaware 4-1 6-1
Massachusetts 4-0 6-1
Hofstra 3-1 6-1
New Hampshire 2-2 5-2
Richmond 3-1 5-2
Villanova 2-2 4-3
William & Mary 2-2 4-3

Lots of parity, still some quality matches to come. UMass still has UNH and Hofstra (although the Pride didn't look good getting nailed by UNH). Most of the South division teams still have yet to play one another. Mathematically, I believe it's still possible to get as many as 5 9-win teams. It's probable the CAA could place 5 in, but I'll still bet on only 4 getting in. Too many pitfalls remaining, especially in the South. One of them could be a prime candidate for getting Woofed this year.


Gateway
Northern Iowa 3-0 7-0
Southern Illinois 3-1 7-1
Western Illinois 2-1 5-3
Illinois State 2-2 4-4
Youngstown State 1-2 5-3

Speaking of a conference that beats itself up. I honestly only see 3 bids from the Gateway at best this year. WIU and YSU still haven't played, so one's gonna be out. Can't see ISU getting in, even at 7-4, while UNI and SIU look pretty good right now. 3 at best, unless the 'Guins or 'Necks stumble after beating the other.


Great West
Cal Poly 1-1 4-3

Needs to win out. NDSU still on the schedule, but at SLO. That could be the quality win that pushes Cal Poly into the field.


Metro Atlantic Athletic
Iona 1-0 5-2
Duquesne 1-0 5-2

By season's end, each will have 2 opponents from good conferences. Duquesne already 0-2 (Bucknell and Brown), Iona 0-1 (UNH, with Cal Poly to come). Plus they still play each other. No


Mid-Eastern Athletic
Norfolk State 5-0 6-1
Delaware State 5-0 6-1
South Carolina State 4-1 4-3
Hampton 3-3 4-3
Morgan State 3-3 4-4

NSU and DSU are both legit at-large competitors if they win out (excepting a loss to the other). Neither has a quality OOC win, and will need more than a couple 7-4 teams from big conferences.


Northeast
Central Connecticut State 3-0 5-2
Albany 1-0 3-3
Wagner 3-1 5-2

CCSU's good OOC game was a loss to 3-5 Towson, Wagner hasn't played anyone, and while Albany has the toughest schedule, an 8-3 NEC team would need a lot to go its way to get an at-large.


Ohio Valley
Eastern Kentucky 5-0 6-2
Jacksonville State 4-1 5-3
Eastern Illinois 4-1 5-3
Tennessee State 2-1 3-4
Austin Peay 3-2 5-3

EKU seems to have the title wrapped up at this point. JSU or EIU, if one wins out, will be an at-large candidate (after beating the other), but lacking a quality win. OVC seems like a 1-bid league this year


Patriot
Fordham 4-0 6-2
Holy Cross 2-0 5-2
Lafayette 1-1 4-3
Colgate 1-1 4-3
Lehigh 0-1 3-4

Fordham and Holy Cross are really the only possible at-larges here, and the closest thing either has to a quality OOC win is HC over Harvard. Finish 8-3, and they'll be in the at-large bag, but like the OVC, the PL seems like a 1-bid league.


Pioneer
San Diego 4-0 7-0
Morehead State 3-1 5-2
Dayton 2-1 6-1[QUOTE]

USD gets real consideration for an at-large if they go 10-0. Dayton might get considered at 8-1, although I think the loss to Morehead dooms them in the end. MSU doesn't get in at 8-2, and they still have Western Kentucky to come.

[QUOTE]Southern
Wofford 3-1 6-2
Citadel 3-1 5-2
Elon 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 2-2 5-2
Appalachian State 1-2 5-2

This is a logjam. 3 at best get in, the auto plus 2 at-larges. I'd be very surprised if a 4th snuck in, although that 4th would be a prime Woofed candidate as well.


Southland
McNeese State 3-0 7-0
Nicholls State 2-1 5-2

Both win out, or McNeese only loses one more, and the SLC is a two-bid league.

I've got:
2 Big Sky
4 CAA
2 Gateway
1 MEAC
1 OVC
1 Patriot
3 Southern
2 Southland
Total: 16

Other at-larges potentially include:
3rd Gateway or Big Sky
4th SoCon
5th CAA
2nd MEAC, OVC, Patriot
Cal Poly or San Diego

xdizzyx

[AZGrizFan]

Northern Colorado, not Northern Arizona.

San Diego wouldn't stand a chance against NAU.

Beat me to it, jon.

xthumbsupx xthumbsupx xthumbsupx

[Khan4Cats]

Northern Colorado, not Northern Arizona.

San Diego wouldn't stand a chance against NAU.

Sorry jon, I know better than that. Brief braincramp.

Now Northern Colorado versus Indiana State, that could be an interesting matchup.xnonono2x

[grizband]

Alright guys, I made the corrections you listed above. One of these days I will get the list correct, but until then, please keep your help coming. xthumbsupx

[appfan2008]

all that looks good... i think socon will be a 3 bid league at least... the thing hurting us is all the games against each other

[LeopardFan04]

Thanks for putting this together Grizband.

[WMTribe90]

I just don't see NSU or DSU from the MEAC getting an at-large over an 8-3 CAA, Gateway or SoCon team. The strength of schedule and quality wins just won't be there for anat-large IMO. I'd like to see the MEAC autobid win a playoff game before we seriously talk at-large.

Big Sky could send one at large, most likely EWU or MSU, but the league does ot warrant three bids under any scenario IMO. The weakness in the bottom half of that league is glaring this year.

SoCon is the most interesting right now. Conference title race is wide open and the conference has more parity now than anytime in memory. I still think the beat each other up and end up with two teams in the field.

I think the CAA is setting up well for five bids. I think five or six squads will end the season at 8-3 or better. Any CAA team with 8 DI wins should be in the field. UD is the only playoff contender at risk here, virtue of their DII win over West Chester. While AGS is still the rule in the CAA, there is less parity than usual in the CAA this year and the CAA (especially the playoff contenders) have done very well OOC. I don't think we'll see as many upsets as in past years down the stretch. I think UMass and JMU are close to locks and three of the following will also get the nod (UD, Hofstra, UNH, UR).

No way the PL deserves an at-large this year either given the conference's dismal OOC record and lack of big wins (and I'm not a PL hater).

My guess:

I've got:
2 Big Sky
5 CAA
2 Gateway
1 MEAC
1 OVC
1 Patriot
3 Southern
1 Southland

Total: 16

Decent a fifth and possibly even a 6th CAA sqaud get woofed, especially if Southland gets two.

Precedent is there for sending half a conference when four of eight Gateway squads went in 2003. So, 5 of 12 from the CAA is certainly within reason.

[TheValleyRaider]

Precedent is there for sending half a conference when four of eight Gateway squads went in 2003. So, 5 of 12 from the CAA is certainly within reason.

I don't buy this comparison. Half of the Gateway is 4 (or at least it was when this happened in 2003), which leaves 12 spots left in the playoff field. Half of the CAA is 6, and even if it's only 5 teams, that still only leaves 11 playoff spots. When you're dealing with a limited number of spots, you can't just fall back on the "well, they got 50% in before" when the numbers don't match xtwocentsx

[blur2005]

I don't buy this comparison. Half of the Gateway is 4 (or at least it was when this happened in 2003), which leaves 12 spots left in the playoff field. Half of the CAA is 6, and even if it's only 5 teams, that still only leaves 11 playoff spots. When you're dealing with a limited number of spots, you can't just fall back on the "well, they got 50% in before" when the numbers don't match xtwocentsx
Just look at the CAA in the initial post. There is an unusually large chance of at least five 8-3 teams and even a chance of there being five 9-2 teams. If there are five 9-2 CAA teams, there will be five CAA teams in the playoffs.

[Mr. Tiger]

If the OVC can get two in last year, then why not the MEAC this year? The loser of the DSU-Norfolk game would have only one FCS loss if they win out. So I believe it's possible. I see four teams from the CAA.