CAA AFTER WEEK 6- PLAYOFF TALK AND MORE

[MUHAWKS]

I figured best to start a new thread. As stupid as it is to talk about playoffs after week 6 in a 13 team conference, there is enough information to at least talk about possibilities and how we think things could shake out. I also think it is fair to say there are 8 teams in the CAA vying for at very very most 5 spots (very small chance but not impossible) more than likely 4 spots and maybe even just 3. I think 4 is most plausible and of course much of this will have to do with what other teams do. For example if Fordham can steal the AC from Holy Cross that clearly hurts the chances of a CAA team. Would love to hear others thoughts on all. I am less intimate with the midwest and western conferences and I know they view their middle of the road teams better than decent CAA types, so maybe if someone could opine if there is even ANY chance the CAA could send 5? What seems clear to me is that there is a very good chance 8 wins in the CAA does not assure a playoff spot this year. That is really the overall point of this post. To show how multiple teams can get to 8 wins and then it becomes really subjective in comparing not only CAA games but to the rest of the country. I assume there will be some who will just be like "ahh too early to talk about this, but ironically I feel that 50% of this site is just that- prognostication before the fact- this is just well before. I cannot wait to get beaten up by everyone for posting this! Just like my hawks, I like being the underdog..Bring it on...

Out of teams alive for the playoffs in the CAA, here are their remaining schedules with some comments below.

UNH- (4-2, 4-0) - Dartmouth, Elon, Richmond, URI, Maine

* probably need to win 4 of 5 for a chance at the playoffs (assuming no AQ). Have 1 bad loss so far and not the hardest schedule so will need 8 wins for sure. An AQ for UNH not good for the bubble CAA teams.


ELON-(5-1, 3-0) - URI, UNH, Delaware, Albany, Hampton

* barring a total meltdown Elon looks to be in probably needing just 1 win against UNH, UDEL and URI (assuming they beat Albany and Hampton)


DELAWARE-(5-1, 3-1) -Morgan State, Elon, Monmouth, Richmond, Villanova

* Morgan State will be win 6- Any 2 wins of the remaining 4 should seal the deal? This is strongly aided by pre season ranking, but in reality also by performance assuming they get to 8 wins.


W&M-(5-1, 2-1) - Towson, URI, Hampton, Villanova, Richmond

* Barring something really weird, these guys are in right? Towson and Hampton gets them to 7- would have to lose all 3 others to not get in IMO.


MONMOUTH-(4-2, 2-1) - Maine, URI, Towson, Delaware, Stony Brook

* Probably needs to run the table. Would need serious help at 8-3 unless it is derived by beating UDEL and URI, but then again that gives them a bad loss- but that would be 3 big wins- I say 50/50 needs help @ 8-3.


URI- (3-2, 1-1) -Elon, Monmouth, W&M, Maine, UNH, Albany

*These guys and Richmond are the wildcards in that one or both of them *****ting the bed the rest of the way will aid teams like UNH, Monmouth, Nova.


RICHMOND-(3-2, 1-1) - Villanova, Hampton, Maine, UNH, Delaware, W&M

* See URI comment...



VILLANOVA-(3-2, 1-1) -Richmond, Albany, Hampton, Towson, W&M, Delaware

* 3 games that on paper are probable wins. a 7 win Nova team even with recency bias will not get in. Even 8 wins will be 50/50..

[caribbeanhen]

Posted some CAA predictions on Aug 7th, too low on Elon and Monmouth but so far really not that bad overall



Just for fun because I will not be placing any bets on CAA or these predictions but this is my guess

1. Richmond

2. Delaware

3. William & Mary

4. Villanova

5. Rhode Island

6. Elon

7. New Hampshire

8. Maine

9. Stony Brook

10. Monmouth

11. Towson

12. UAlbany

13. Hampton

[Tribal]

Currently, 8 ranked or ORV teams. Tough conference.

Aside from conference record and head-to-head matchups, W&M and UD get a boost from beating FBS opponents. SOS will matter and may end up being what separates #4 from #5.

1-6 could make runs in the FCS playoffs so it’s unfortunate that a weaker conference AQ will have that opportunity over our #5, but that’s the way it is.

[KPSUL]

Anyone gets in at 8-3 as an at-large selection if not the AQ. I wouldn't be surprised to see one team make it at 7-4. I think 6-2 is likely to win the conference and with two or three tied and the tie-breaker methodology picking the AQ.