odds for an at large vs. autobid winning NC

[terrierbob]

In baseball lately, I believe the wild card teams have actually fared better than division winners. (I am keenly aware of this; I'm a Braves fan). Does anyone know how many at large teams have won it all vs. conference winners?

[rufus]

I don't feel like looking back more than 10 years, but it that time seeded teams have typically won.

2006 - App State - Seed
2005 - App State - Seed
2004 - JMU - At Large
2003 - Delaware - Seed
2002 - WKU - ?
2001 - Montana - Seed
2000 - GSU - Seed
1999 - GSU - Seed
1998 - UMass - At Large
1997 - YSU - ?

This is based off of my memory and a quick look at playoff pairings, so I can't be sure that it's right. It looks like seeded teams have won the championship about 60-80% of the time.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

WKU was not seeded in 2002.

[appfan2008]

seed is different from conference winners...

[patssle]

In the SLC in 2001, 2004, and 2005....at large teams went far into the playoffs (Quarters, Semis, Semis) while the autobids all lost in the 1st round.

[blur2005]

Interesting analogy, baseball wild cards to FCS football unseededs. But you have to figure there's a much better chance of unseededs winning the national championship than a wild card team winning the world series. Seventy-five percent of the teams in the FCS playoffs are unseeded; only 25% of the teams in the baseball playoffs are wild cards. Moreover, seeding is a less defined and exact designation than winning a division. There have been plenty of teams that were probably worthy of a seed but didn't receive one.

[skinny_uncle]

WKU was not seeded in 2002.
I doubt WKU was seeded that year as they did not win the Gateway title.

[chattanoogamocs]

WKU was not seeded in 2002.

Makes for an interesting side question...how many times has a non AQ gotten a seed (I assume it has not been many, if it all...though technically it could have happened)

[JayJ79]

I think it would be cool if the NCAA put together a FCS/I-AA Playoffs record book.

I know the Championship game program has a listing of playoff game scores and everything. But what I'd like to see would be something that for each year, lists all the teams selected for the playoffs, their records, which ones were seeded, which conference they were in at that time (and which got auto-bids), and so on.

[chattanoogamocs]

I think it would be cool if the NCAA put together a FCS/I-AA Playoffs record book.

I know the Championship game program has a listing of playoff game scores and everything. But what I'd like to see would be something that for each year, lists all the teams selected for the playoffs, their records, which ones were seeded, which conference they were in at that time (and which got auto-bids), and so on.

They do have one (thru the NCAA)...though it is brief, not terribly indepth, and it is shared with DII and DIII playoff records.

http://www.ncaa.org/library/records/football/football_champs_records_book/2005_football_champs_records.pdf

[JohnStOnge]

YSU won all four of its national championships as an at large and Georgia Southern won four of its six as an at large too so that's a pretty good chunk right off the bat.