Playoff Thoughts Through Week 8

[UNHWildCats]

I know some people are gonna have a nutty with my picks but here goes.

Montana 7-0
New Hampshire 5-2
Massachusetts 6-1
Delaware 6-1
James Madison 6-1
Richmond 5-2
Northern Iowa 7-0
Southern Illinois 7-1
Norfolk State 6-1
Eastern Kentucky 6-2
Fordham 6-2
Wofford 6-2
Elon 5-2
Appalachian State 5-2
The Citadel 5-2
McNeese State 7-0

I actually had Hofstra in on the list I wrote and Citadel was one of two teams I crossed off (I had 18 teams written down as the best bets for playoffs)

Hofstra hasnt beaten anyone of significance this season and got trounced by New Hampshire at home 40-3. They only play one more quality opponent (Massachusetts) So they prolly wont get in unless they go 10-1. If they finish 9-2 I think they get passed over by a 8-3 possibly even a 7-4 team who beat better opponents.

I know I know 9 teams combined for the CAA and SoCon but they have the quality teams.


Whats your thoughts?

[beerkat]

my thoughts.......

how on earth did Sam Houston State screw up this season ....... sickening

[GaSouthern]

I just hope that at the end of this the SoCon wins the Championship again, Citadel, Elon, GSU, Wofford... would all be fine with me... ASU is just getting too close to #6 for comfort :)

[BDKJMU]

I know some people are gonna have a nutty with my picks but here goes.

Montana 7-0
New Hampshire 5-2
Massachusetts 6-1
Delaware 6-1
James Madison 6-1
Richmond 5-2
Northern Iowa 7-0
Southern Illinois 7-1
Norfolk State 6-1
Eastern Kentucky 6-2
Fordham 6-2
Wofford 6-2
Elon 5-2
Appalachian State 5-2
The Citadel 5-2
McNeese State 7-0

I actually had Hofstra in on the list I wrote and Citadel was one of two teams I crossed off (I had 18 teams written down as the best bets for playoffs)

Hofstra hasnt beaten anyone of significance this season and got trounced by New Hampshire at home 40-3. They only play one more quality opponent (Massachusetts) So they prolly wont get in unless they go 10-1. If they finish 9-2 I think they get passed over by a 8-3 possibly even a 7-4 team who beat better opponents.

I know I know 9 teams combined for the CAA and SoCon but they have the quality teams.


Whats your thoughts?

Hofstra got exposed as overrated. They get in at 9-2- no 9-2 A-10 team ever got left out. Its a moot point, though, Hofstra will lose to Umass and at least to one of the following, @ NU or @ Nova, and won't get a bid at 8-3 or 7-4.

[JoltinJoe]

Fordham hosts Holy Cross on November 3. A Fordham win sews up the PL autobid for the Rams.

Holy Cross started the year as one of the PL favorites. The Crusaders have lived up and perhaps even exceeded the pre-season hype. Their only two losses have come at the hands of an excellent Yale team and a nationally-ranked UMass team (which, you may recall gave BCS Top 5 team Boston College all it could handle earlier this year).

Fordham, on the other hand, is the PL Cinderella, rebounding from a rebuilding 3-8 year under second-year coach Tom Masella. Last year Masella inherited a team that went 2-9 in 2005 but he has recruited and coached well. Still, most PL pundits were saying before the season that Fordham was still a year away from contending in the PL. Masella's Rams have seemingly arrived earlier than anticipated.

Fordham and Holy Cross have two common league opponents. Fordham recorded solid wins over Lehigh and Georgetown -- but Holy Cross rocked both of them by scores of 59-10 and 55-0 respectively.

Fordham's losses are not as impressive as Holy Cross' losses. The Rams lost early season meetings with Albany and Dayton. But the Fordham team that takes the field against Holy Cross has improved each week and is quite visibly better than the team that lost those early season games.

Fordham is currently 4-0 in the Patriot League, having beaten Colgate, Lehigh, Georgetown and Lafayette. Holy Cross is 2-0 in the league with wins over Lehigh and Georgetown. Next week Fordham plays a non-league contest at Marist while the Crusaders travel to Bucknell for a game it figures to win, so expect Holy Cross to come into the game sporting a 3-0 league record.

Fordham's final league contest is on November 17, when the Rams host Bucknell. After the game at Rose Hill on November 3, the Crusaders still have before them two stiff league tests, Lafayette at home on November 10 and Colgate at home on November 17.

If Fordham wins on November 3, the worst the Rams can do in conference would be 5-1 with wins over all other teams in the conference which could also finish with one loss (Holy Cross -- assuming a win on 11/3; Colgate, and Lafayette). So the Rams control their own playoff destiny and can lock up the autobid with a win.

Still Holy Cross has done nothing this year to impeach the pre-season hype. I figure the Crusaders come into that game as the favorites.

[JohnStOnge]

I think Nicholls State still has a shot. The 28-7 score in the loss to McNeese yesterday was, I think, deceptive as the Colonels ended two promising drives with turnovers. I think McNeese did have a little bit the better of it but not by much. Nicholls State has an excellent secondary, I think. I think their pass coverage was very good last night.

It's not going to be easy as they're going to Central Arkansas next week but they have a legitimate shot at going 9-2. If they do that, I think they're in.

[JohnStOnge]

And I think it's absolutely horrible that North Dakota State isn't eligible. To me it kind of takes away from whoever does win the title because it's obvious that North Dakota State could make a difference if the Bison were in. It's a situation where one's going to have to wonder if the best team in the subdivision sat out the playoffs. It stinks.

[terrierbob]

And I think it's absolutely horrible that North Dakota State isn't eligible. To me it kind of takes away from whoever does win the title because it's obvious that North Dakota State could make a difference if the Bison were in. It's a situation where one's going to have to wonder if the best team in the subdivision sat out the playoffs. It stinks.

I agree completely. On another thread someone said "rules are rules." That's true, but in my mind if they win out it should be like those dual championship years in what was div. I-A.

[pantherfan]

I know some people are gonna have a nutty with my picks but here goes.

Montana 7-0
New Hampshire 5-2
Massachusetts 6-1
Delaware 6-1
James Madison 6-1
Richmond 5-2
Northern Iowa 7-0
Southern Illinois 7-1
Norfolk State 6-1
Eastern Kentucky 6-2
Fordham 6-2
Wofford 6-2
Elon 5-2
Appalachian State 5-2
The Citadel 5-2
McNeese State 7-0

I actually had Hofstra in on the list I wrote and Citadel was one of two teams I crossed off (I had 18 teams written down as the best bets for playoffs)

Hofstra hasnt beaten anyone of significance this season and got trounced by New Hampshire at home 40-3. They only play one more quality opponent (Massachusetts) So they prolly wont get in unless they go 10-1. If they finish 9-2 I think they get passed over by a 8-3 possibly even a 7-4 team who beat better opponents.

I know I know 9 teams combined for the CAA and SoCon but they have the quality teams.


Whats your thoughts?

Absolutely positive that 5 CAA and 4 SoCon do not make the playoffs. MAYBE 4 from one of the conferences, but there will be a deserving team or two from each probably left home on selection day...xcoffeex The Gateway probably gave up on slot yesterday with YSU losing, but I don't see practically every at-large going to two conferences.

[dbackjon]

5 CAA and 4 Southern, with only 2 Gateway and 1 Big Sky???

Only happens if ESPN picks the at-large.

[WrenFGun]

I'm not sure who from the Big Sky or the Gateway is deserving beyond those that UNH listed. The Gateway clearly only has two playoff teams right now in S. Illinois and UNI (UNI probably knocks Youngstown out next week) and W. Illinois would have to win out against a very tough schedule.

As for the Big Sky, I could see the argument for Montana State, and they'd likely get in over one of those SoCon teams or CAA teams...however, Montana State still has to beat at least one, and probably two, of Montana, Portland State and Northern Arizona, so I don't think it's any cakewalk. I do agree they should be in right now over perhaps Richmond (who has a bad loss to Towson) or one of the SoCon teams I know less about. It's hard to justify NAU or EWU in the field in light of their 3 losses.

I'm sure everything will work itself out (I suspect Richmond is going to have some troubles with JMU and Delaware, and that Delaware may have some problems of their own) but as of now, with the exception of Montana State, I think it's pretty accurate.

[JALMOND]

I'm not sure who from the Big Sky or the Gateway is deserving beyond those that UNH listed. The Gateway clearly only has two playoff teams right now in S. Illinois and UNI (UNI probably knocks Youngstown out next week) and W. Illinois would have to win out against a very tough schedule.

As for the Big Sky, I could see the argument for Montana State, and they'd likely get in over one of those SoCon teams or CAA teams...however, Montana State still has to beat at least one, and probably two, of Montana, Portland State and Northern Arizona, so I don't think it's any cakewalk. I do agree they should be in right now over perhaps Richmond (who has a bad loss to Towson) or one of the SoCon teams I know less about. It's hard to justify NAU or EWU in the field in light of their 3 losses.

I'm sure everything will work itself out (I suspect Richmond is going to have some troubles with JMU and Delaware, and that Delaware may have some problems of their own) but as of now, with the exception of Montana State, I think it's pretty accurate.

Montana State has two of those three at home (NAU and Montana). EWU's two losses have been to Montana in Missoula and FBS's BYU. NAU has two losses to Pac-10 Arizona and on the road at App State, but probably has the toughest road with games against Montana, Montana State and EWU. A lot of football to be played still in the Big Sky.

[appfan2008]

finally someone with some sense getting four of those socon teams in their predictions... but i dont think it will happen... i bet we will end up with 3

[UMass922]

I think Nicholls State still has a shot. The 28-7 score in the loss to McNeese yesterday was, I think, deceptive as the Colonels ended two promising drives with turnovers. I think McNeese did have a little bit the better of it but not by much. Nicholls State has an excellent secondary, I think. I think their pass coverage was very good last night.

It's not going to be easy as they're going to Central Arkansas next week but they have a legitimate shot at going 9-2. If they do that, I think they're in.

Two of Nicholls State's wins are over Southern Arkansas and Azusa Pacific, though--both sub- D-I teams. They do have a win over FBS Rice (who's pretty bad, though). McNeese was NSU's best chance at a quality win. They could finish 9-2, but it would be a relatively unimpressive 9-2, and I'm not so sure it would get them in. I think they'd be squarely on the bubble at best. Of course it always depends on what happens to other at-large contenders around the country.

[pantherfan]

Two of Nicholls State's wins are over Southern Arkansas and Azusa Pacific, though--both sub- D-I teams. They do have a win over FBS Rice (who's pretty bad, though). McNeese was NSU's best chance at a quality win. They could finish 9-2, but it would be a relatively unimpressive 9-2, and I'm not so sure it would get them in. I think they'd be squarely on the bubble at best. Of course it always depends on what happens to other at-large contenders around the country.

They definitely get in at 9-2. The SoCon and CAA are too top heavy and the selection committee will spread the love around a little...xreadx

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

an 8+ win team with 7+ division I wins from the SoCon or CAA will get in before one from any other conference. The Socon and CAA this year are miles ahead of the other conferences, including the Gateway.

The only thing in UNHWC's post I disagree with is putting The Citadel in. If there is a 4th Socon team that makes it, it will be GSU. The Citadel still has to play GSU, ASU, and Elon and win two of those games. GSU can only afford to lose one more and still have 7 DI wins, but with the remaining schedule we are a more likely AL team than The Citadel is.

[pantherfan]

an 8+ win team with 7+ division I wins from the SoCon or CAA will get in before one from any other conference. The Socon and CAA this year are miles ahead of the other conferences, including the Gateway.

The only thing in UNHWC's post I disagree with is putting The Citadel in. If there is a 4th Socon team that makes it, it will be GSU. The Citadel still has to play GSU, ASU, and Elon and win two of those games. GSU can only afford to lose one more and still have 7 DI wins, but with the remaining schedule we are a more likely AL team than The Citadel is.

Not so sure that the SoCon and CAA are "miles ahead" of the Gateway. SIU and UNI would do quite well in either conference... The Gateway might not be as top heavy as previous seasons with 3 or 4 playoff teams, but the two that should make it this year are loaded top to bottom...xcoffeex

[Big Dawg]

Okay I see Norfolk St. on your list and no Delaware St.

I would think the DSU gets a look before anyone else in the MEAC at this moment in time.

[UNHWildCats]

Okay I see Norfolk St. on your list and no Delaware St.

I would think the DSU gets a look before anyone else in the MEAC at this moment in time.

Just simply at this moment projecting Norfolk State to win the conference, obviously if Delaware St wins it they get the spot... 2 MEAC teams WILL NOT make the playoffs.

[JALMOND]

Just simply at this moment projecting Norfolk State to win the conference, obviously if Delaware St wins it they get the spot... 2 MEAC teams WILL NOT make the playoffs.

Maybe a stretch with Norfolk having to play Del State on the road. The winner gets in with the autobid, the loser maybe stays home for the playoffs.

[appfan2008]

an 8+ win team with 7+ division I wins from the SoCon or CAA will get in before one from any other conference. The Socon and CAA this year are miles ahead of the other conferences, including the Gateway.

The only thing in UNHWC's post I disagree with is putting The Citadel in. If there is a 4th Socon team that makes it, it will be GSU. The Citadel still has to play GSU, ASU, and Elon and win two of those games. GSU can only afford to lose one more and still have 7 DI wins, but with the remaining schedule we are a more likely AL team than The Citadel is.

i agree gsu over TC right now but... that game between the 2 of them very soon will make that choice much easier

[UNHWildCats]

Maybe a stretch with Norfolk having to play Del State on the road. The winner gets in with the autobid, the loser maybe stays home for the playoffs.


i could have flipped a coin rifght not to determine who had it.. I chose Norfolk over Del St based on what they have done not what they might do.... Its not that big a deal MEAC winner in 2nd place out.