Gateway Playoff Picture

[Khan4Cats]

Figured I would throw out a thread to match what some other conferences are doing. Tough road ahead in the Gateway and it looks like only two teams have room for slips.

Likely bids:

Northern Iowa (6-0, 2-0): can get to 10 D-I wins. Still have WIU and MSU on the road, YSU, InSU, and SUU at home.

Southern Illinois (6-1, 2-1): can get to 9 D-I wins. Have MSU and IlSU at home, WIU and Hampton on the road.

Need a strong finish:

Western Illinois (5-2, 2-0): tied for first for now and can reach 8 D-I wins if they finish 3-1 but have to play UNI, IlSU, SIU, and YSU. That last game at Youngstown could be a play-in game.

Youngstown State (5-2, 1-1): can finish with 8 D-I wins if they finish 3-1. Host IlSU, then at UNI and InSU before hosting WIU. Easier road than WIU because they get them at home but can't slip to either ISU.

Slim chances:

Missouri State (4-3, 1-2): can get to 7 D-I wins, have to go to SIU, host UNI. Lose either of those and they are out. Pull upsets in both then home games against InSU and SEMO are trap games.

Illinois State (3-4, 1-2): can get to 7 D-I wins but have to run the gauntlet of YSU, WIU, NDSU, and SIU with only WIU at home. Would be deserving a bid if they make it through that.

No Chance (and not even likely to play a spoiler role)

Indiana State (0-7, 0-3): hosting Western Kentucky for Homecoming!! Then at MSU, host YSU, and at UNI for the year.

I'm thinking 2 bids with Youngstown having a good shot at a third.

[appfan2008]

seems about right... i thought YSU would have been better than they have been

[Saluki_man]

Both Il St and Mo St are out, I see them each loosing atleast two of their remaining games with the Redbirds possibly not winning another game.

YSU has the scheduling advantage with the WIU game at home and have already played SIU, but the game at UNI is most likely to be a loss. WIU has both SIU and UNI at home and will probably be am underdog for both games. The other two games are road games and those won't be easy.

I can see both UNI and SIU running the table. Which probably means UNI getting the #1 seed in the playoffs and a 10-1 SIU team getting a home game. I can't imagine the playoff comittee sending a 10-1 Gateway team on the road for the first round (Any other year they are probably a seed).

[GannonFan]

UNI and SIU should be shoe-ins (one gets the auto). The question mark will be YSU - at 8-3 do they get in, again with a DII win on the schedule. Depends on what happens elsewhere.

[Houndawg]

Both Il St and Mo St are out, I see them each loosing atleast two of their remaining games with the Redbirds possibly not winning another game.

YSU has the scheduling advantage with the WIU game at home and have already played SIU, but the game at UNI is most likely to be a loss. WIU has both SIU and UNI at home and will probably be am underdog for both games. The other two games are road games and those won't be easy.

I can see both UNI and SIU running the table. Which probably means UNI getting the #1 seed in the playoffs and a 10-1 SIU team getting a home game. I can't imagine the playoff comittee sending a 10-1 Gateway team on the road for the first round (Any other year they are probably a seed).

Unfortunately MSU and WIU both traditionally play us tough. YSU has a chance against UNI just because it will be hard for anybody to play a near perfect game like UNI did twice, and UNI still beats us on the tie-breaker.
Illinois State can be a spoiler but I don't see as much of a chance for a letdown against them after last years performance by their fans. MSU this week worries me more.

[JayJ79]

Youngstown State (5-2, 1-1): can finish with 8 D-I wins if they finish 3-1. Host IlSU, then at UNI and InSU before hosting WIU. Easier road than WIU because they get them at home but can't slip to either ISU.

Actually, one of YSU's wins is over Lock Haven, which is a D2 school. So they'd have to finish 4-0 to have 8 D-I wins. Though they might have a chance for the auto-bid if they beat UNI (but I'm not sure how the tiebreaker works exactly)



Western Illinois (5-2, 2-0): tied for first for now and can reach 8 D-I wins if they finish 3-1 but have to play UNI, IlSU, SIU, and YSU. That last game at Youngstown could be a play-in game.

Same with WIU, as one of their wins is over NAIA St. Francis (so they too would have to go 4-0 to finish with 8 D-I wins). Of course, they don't yet have a conference loss, but I really don't see them getting through UNI, SIU, and YSU with less than 2 losses.

[Houndawg]

UNI and SIU should be shoe-ins (one gets the auto). The question mark will be YSU - at 8-3 do they get in, again with a DII win on the schedule. Depends on what happens elsewhere.

They played SIU tough on the road (24-17) and have a chance to keep it close with UNI, although they aren't as physical. If they play UNI tough I think they'll have a good case if their only losses are UNI and SIU.

[Houndawg]

Actually, one of YSU's wins is over Lock Haven, which is a D2 school. So they'd have to finish 4-0 to have 8 D-I wins. Though they might have a chance for the auto-bid if they beat UNI (but I'm not sure how the tiebreaker works exactly)




Same with WIU, as one of their wins is over NAIA St. Francis (so they too would have to go 4-0 to finish with 8 D-I wins). Of course, they don't yet have a conference loss, but I really don't see them getting through UNI, SIU, and YSU with less than 2 losses.

I'm not sure how the tie-breaker works in a rock paper scissors finish where YSU beats UNI who beat SIU who beat YSU, margin of vctory? Common opponents?

[Saluki_man]

Unfortunately MSU and WIU both traditionally play us tough. YSU has a chance against UNI just because it will be hard for anybody to play a near perfect game like UNI did twice, and UNI still beats us on the tie-breaker.
Illinois State can be a spoiler but I don't see as much of a chance for a letdown against them after last years performance by their fans. MSU this week worries me more.

I'm not as worried about the MSU game as I am about those pesky Redbirds. Not saying that we should look past MSU, but if I had to rank the remaining three gateway games in terms of toughnes they would go WIU, IL St, MSU.

[JayJ79]

I'm not sure how the tie-breaker works in a rock paper scissors finish where YSU beats UNI who beat SIU who beat YSU, margin of vctory? Common opponents?

UNI should be able to beat YSU, and make the point moot.
But I had to consider the scenarios, just in case.

[Saluki_man]

I'm not sure how the tie-breaker works in a rock paper scissors finish where YSU beats UNI who beat SIU who beat YSU, margin of vctory? Common opponents?

If they all finish with a Gateway record of 5-1, I think the tie breaker will be point differential in conference games (not sure). The best person to ask is ISUMatt, if he is still around.

[Chi Panther]

Unfortunately MSU and WIU both traditionally play us tough. YSU has a chance against UNI just because it will be hard for anybody to play a near perfect game like UNI did twice, and UNI still beats us on the tie-breaker.
Illinois State can be a spoiler but I don't see as much of a chance for a letdown against them after last years performance by their fans. MSU this week worries me more.

Why do you insist UNI played a perfect game?????xconfusedx xrolleyesx

[Houndawg]

Why do you insist UNI played a perfect game?????xconfusedx xrolleyesx

I said "near perfect".

30 points, 360 yds. offense

NO turnovers

No penalty flags until the 4th quarter.

Outstanding run defense.

What's not to like for a UNI fan?

[Houndawg]

I'm not as worried about the MSU game as I am about those pesky Redbirds. Not saying that we should look past MSU, but if I had to rank the remaining three gateway games in terms of toughnes they would go WIU, IL St, MSU.

I would too except I think Hampton will be tougher than those three on the road, but I don't think we'll have an emotional letdown for ISU. Remember the chants of "seizure" and the plastic footballs? Plus they've beat us two in a row, we'll ready for that game.

[Saluki_man]

Yes I am worried about Hampton, but we gotta take care of buisness in the Gateway first.

[Khan4Cats]

Actually, one of YSU's wins is over Lock Haven, which is a D2 school. So they'd have to finish 4-0 to have 8 D-I wins. Though they might have a chance for the auto-bid if they beat UNI (but I'm not sure how the tiebreaker works exactly)

Same with WIU, as one of their wins is over NAIA St. Francis (so they too would have to go 4-0 to finish with 8 D-I wins). Of course, they don't yet have a conference loss, but I really don't see them getting through UNI, SIU, and YSU with less than 2 losses.

You're right on those. Both could get to 7 D-I wins by finishing 3-1, which would make them play-off eligible. Either could win out and get to 8 wins. I honestly see the end of season game at YSU as a make or break game for both, though WIU may lose to both UNI and SIU and be looking to be a spoiler only. UNI and SIU run the table from here.

[Khan4Cats]

I said "near perfect".

30 points, 360 yds. offense

NO turnovers

No penalty flags until the 4th quarter.

Outstanding run defense.

What's not to like for a UNI fan?

Poor clock management in the 4th quarter. Not just the last series, but one prior, Lewis had a sweep play that he took to the sidelines and out of bounds rather than stay in bounds to run more clock.

The lack of "go for the throat" mentality, especially after the fumble recovery. Three running plays, a delay of game penalty and a 50 yard field goal try.

Lots of banged up players, especially a gimpy safety who got beat for a long TD and another long pass play on consecutive series.

Lack of consistent pressure on the quarterback. The second interception was caused by one of the few times we forced Hill to make a hurried decision and he threw long trying to get rid of it. Otherwise, he generally had time to look over the defense and find a gap in the zone.

I was very pleased with how our D played against the run. How our offense attacked with balance and adjusting to what the SIU defense was trying to stop in the first half. And generally our special teams did well in keeping a very dangerous return man in check.

[Cap'n Cat]

Too early for this crap, boys. Too many good games left, beg. this weekend.

xeyebrowx

[Houndawg]

Poor clock management in the 4th quarter. Not just the last series, but one prior, Lewis had a sweep play that he took to the sidelines and out of bounds rather than stay in bounds to run more clock.

The lack of "go for the throat" mentality, especially after the fumble recovery. Three running plays, a delay of game penalty and a 50 yard field goal try.

Lots of banged up players, especially a gimpy safety who got beat for a long TD and another long pass play on consecutive series.

Lack of consistent pressure on the quarterback. The second interception was caused by one of the few times we forced Hill to make a hurried decision and he threw long trying to get rid of it. Otherwise, he generally had time to look over the defense and find a gap in the zone.

I was very pleased with how our D played against the run. How our offense attacked with balance and adjusting to what the SIU defense was trying to stop in the first half. And generally our special teams did well in keeping a very dangerous return man in check.

Everybody is banged up now, and I'm guessing that some of your lack of pressure was due to taking away the run. You weren't playing a d2 team.

[Cap'n Cat]

Everybody is banged up now, and I'm guessing that some of your lack of pressure was due to taking away the run. You weren't playing a d2 team.

You still lost. Move on.

[Houndawg]

You still lost. Move on.

Huh?

[joecooll6]

Id say you hit it on the head

[Mountain Panther]

Id say you hit it on the head

Welcome, Joe. Say, who's been doin' all the recruiting' on PantherNation to get you guys over here finally?

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

Figured I would throw out a thread to match what some other conferences are doing. Tough road ahead in the Gateway and it looks like only two teams have room for slips.

Likely bids:

Northern Iowa (6-0, 2-0): can get to 10 D-I wins. Still have WIU and MSU on the road, YSU, InSU, and SUU at home.

Southern Illinois (6-1, 2-1): can get to 9 D-I wins. Have MSU and IlSU at home, WIU and Hampton on the road.

Need a strong finish:

Western Illinois (5-2, 2-0): tied for first for now and can reach 8 D-I wins if they finish 3-1 but have to play UNI, IlSU, SIU, and YSU. That last game at Youngstown could be a play-in game.

Youngstown State (5-2, 1-1): can finish with 8 D-I wins if they finish 3-1. Host IlSU, then at UNI and InSU before hosting WIU. Easier road than WIU because they get them at home but can't slip to either ISU.

Slim chances:

Missouri State (4-3, 1-2): can get to 7 D-I wins, have to go to SIU, host UNI. Lose either of those and they are out. Pull upsets in both then home games against InSU and SEMO are trap games.

Illinois State (3-4, 1-2): can get to 7 D-I wins but have to run the gauntlet of YSU, WIU, NDSU, and SIU with only WIU at home. Would be deserving a bid if they make it through that.

No Chance (and not even likely to play a spoiler role)

Indiana State (0-7, 0-3): hosting Western Kentucky for Homecoming!! Then at MSU, host YSU, and at UNI for the year.

I'm thinking 2 bids with Youngstown having a good shot at a third.

Thanks for the update......it's great to have a snap shot of the current scenario.....hope other conferences will follow...

[Cap'n Cat]

End this thread. Bring it up again after UNI pounds Youngstown.

xmadx

[appfan2008]

now i do expect that to happen