AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 0-1, Fall 2022

[Preferred Walk-On]

It's that time of the year again, where we put our collective heads together and hammer out the best damn FCS poll on the planet. To assist with that endeavor, and in the footsteps of the great superman7515, I will be putting together a weekly "How They Fared" for the 2022 season. While I don't have much time this evening/weekend to elaborate on any of the games, and there are still a few in progress, in the interest of being as timely as possible for the Week 1 AGS Top 25 poll, I am posting a preliminary How They Fared and will update it when I get the chance later this weekend. As always, please let me know if corrections need to be made.

CLICK HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HXSsheDJqH4sic2ogjgxM2SNX5fsbvWtwtIZP9NXP2Y/edit?usp=sharing) to see How They Fared

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Well heck, I didn't think you were getting this one up tonight PWO so I just changed things up a little bit for this weekends vote over the AGS Poll (public) forum. All good, I'll open it tomorrow as I stated there and close on Tuesday as also stated.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Well done btw, it is a big effort to commit to and I'm sure many thanks are coming your way again this year but I really want to be the first to say thank you.

[Catbooster]

Thanks for doing this again PWO. It's a huge help.

[ElCid]

It was definitely an interesting opening week. Lots of surprises. Going to be fun cyphering this week's poll. PWO, thanks for the work!

[POD Knows]

Big time thanks, I probably wouldn't do this poll without this type of information, kudos

[ursus arctos horribilis]

PWO, I'm sure you already know this but since nobody has mentioned it there is a straggler spot between 12 and 13 I think?

[caribbeanhen]

It was definitely an interesting opening week. Lots of surprises. Going to be fun cyphering this week's poll. PWO, thanks for the work!

fun for you maybe

its gonna be 20 minutes of pain

Full ride coming back better and stronger for his sophomore year

[taper]

PWO, I'm sure you already know this but since nobody has mentioned it there is a straggler spot between 12 and 13 I think?
SFA had 2 games in this period.

[Preferred Walk-On]

PWO, I'm sure you already know this but since nobody has mentioned it there is a straggler spot between 12 and 13 I think?

No straggler spots. SFA, Mercer, and FAMU had Week 0 and Week 1 games. Both games are shown as two opponent rows for these teams. Sorry for the confusion, just did not want to duplicate those teams in the rankings.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bisonator]

Nicely done and thank you very much PWO!xbowx

[Catatonic]

I’ll second Bisonator’s post. Nice work.

I’m having trouble with this week’s poll. Lots of money games last week. How much , if any, do you ding a FCS team for losing to a FBS team, particularly a power 5 FBS team?

[FUBeAR]

I’ll second Bisonator’s post. Nice work.

I’m having trouble with this week’s poll. Lots of money games last week. How much , if any, do you ding a FCS team for losing to a FBS team, particularly a power 5 FBS team?FUBeAR decided to be a non-voter, so any comment he may make, perhaps, is invalid.

But, if asked, he would answer your query thusly…

Don’t be lazy like the Playoff Selection Committee. It’s possible for an FCS Team to have a “meh win” over an FBS Team (W&M over CLT, for example) and should not receive any ‘boost’ for that win AND it’s possible for an FCS Team to have a ‘good loss’ to an FBS Team (Bryant to FIU comes to mind) and should be moved up as a result of that game. So, maybe there’s no ‘ding’ at all for losing to an FBS Team (P5 or otherwise). Maybe a Team moves up, based on their ‘showing,’ as Bryant should. The same is true, IFBO, for non-D1 wins/losses, but sort of inversely.

Bottom Line - IFBO - don’t be lazy like the Playoff Selection Committee evaluating performances/competition by some artificially-created alphanumeric assignation. Evaluate each Team based on their performance against your best assessment of the (individual) quality of the Team(s) they have beaten and/or lost to.

[JSUSoutherner]

FUBeAR decided to be a non-voter, so any comment he may make, perhaps, is invalid.

But, if asked, he would answer your query thusly…

Don’t be lazy like the Playoff Selection Committee. It’s possible for an FCS Team to have a “meh win” over an FBS Team (W&M over CLT, for example) and should not receive any ‘boost’ for that win AND it’s possible for an FCS Team to have a ‘good loss’ to an FBS Team (Bryant to FIU comes to mind) and should be moved up as a result of that game. So, maybe there’s no ‘ding’ at all for losing to an FBS Team (P5 or otherwise). Maybe a Team moves up, based on their ‘showing,’ as Bryant should. The same is true, IFBO, for non-D1 wins/losses, but sort of inversely.

Bottom Line - IFBO - don’t be lazy like the Playoff Selection Committee evaluating performances/competition by some artificially-created alphanumeric assignation. Evaluate each Team based on their performance against your best assessment of the (individual) quality of the Team(s) they have beaten and/or lost to.
This.

It's why I don't vote anymore. It takes a lot of time to comb through games and make an accurate assessment of each teams performances. Box scores can be extremely misleading. Just because a team wins doesn't mean they should move up. Likewise if a team loses they shouldn't necessarily be dinged.

If I was voting I'd look at games like APSU/WKU. APSU lost. But let's look at some circumstances:
First, let's acknowledge WKU is a team that was damn close to beating UTSA last year for the CUSA title and they rolled App State in their bowl game. So we know they're a good squad.

Second, if you go back and look at how the game went, it's hard from the stats or the highlights to say that APSU was overmatched or anything by what's supposed to be a superior WKU team. They were in the game until late.

APSU also had 4 turnovers. Now I don't like playing the what if game too much with my poll votes but stuff like this does merit consideration. WKU got 21 points off turnovers in that game. So while APSU lost, this isn't a scenario where I'd actually ding them. Their mistakes were correctable in a season opener but aside from that the eye test has them playing a better brand of ball that I would have expected going into the season.

Is that all to say they should be rewarded for this loss? No. But if I was voting I wouldn't hold it against them.

Same for SDSU. The offense was sad. But Iowa is Iowa. And SDSUs defense had an incredible day. Lots of NDSU fans will immediately tell you how much Petras sucks, but even though Petras sucks, it's impressive to hold a team like Iowa to a FG and only 1.6 YPC for 60 minutes.

Then on the other hand you had a game like South Dakota vs Kansas State where it looked like USD shouldn't even be there and a majority of their offense came well after KSU emptied the bench for garbage time.

That's a ding.

[taper]

I’ll second Bisonator’s post. Nice work.

I’m having trouble with this week’s poll. Lots of money games last week. How much , if any, do you ding a FCS team for losing to a FBS team, particularly a power 5 FBS team?
The FBS label means something but not everything. W&M beat Charlotte, but Charlotte(Sagarin 149) is awful. UNI lost to Air Force, but AF is good(Sagarin 55). I tend to value strength of schedule more than others. I use Sagarin quite a bit. I have no problem up ranking a team that lost if they did really well against a superior team, or dropping a winning team that underperformed against what should have been an easy victory. Not everyone agrees with that. Preseason through week 2-3 is really a crap shoot so as long as you aren't wildly off there seems to be a lot of latitude.

[TheKingpin28]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Preferred Walk-On again.

[Tribal]

W&M beat Charlotte badly and we took a knee inside their 10 with two minutes remaining. Save their QB run in 2Q on 3rd and 21 and the game could have ended 48-17. True, CLT isn’t a good FBS squad but dragging them into deep water, with CLT’s much bigger roster and at home, 21-0 in the 4Q is meaningful. It’s not nothing and is much more noteworthy than beating Mars Hill or Western Oregon. W&M beat a team picked to win by 6.5. If y’all knew it was an easy win, you should have placed your mortgage on W&M. Either way, only 2 FCS teams beat FBS opponents in week one and that’s all W&M could do to earn your vote.

The real winner is a team that lost. S Dakota St should have beaten Iowa. I’d actually move them up in the poll for their performance.

But, to your point, I, too, tend to reward teams who play better competition to the end and I penalize stronger competition who beat up on much weaker teams.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

SFA had 2 games in this period.

Oh for christ's sake, how did I not notice that...oh yeah, drinking. xlolx

[Catatonic]

PFO, just finished my poll and found the information you gathered to be an invaluable resource. I did go to Massey for help with how to rank FBS schools. Otherwise, everything I needed was right there. I had a hard time choosing the “most significant loss” for the week. Soo many candidates. SFA, Kennesaw and Southern Illinois, I’m looking at you.

[Preferred Walk-On]

PFO, just finished my poll and found the information you gathered to be an invaluable resource. I did go to Massey for help with how to rank FBS schools. Otherwise, everything I needed was right there. I had a hard time choosing the “most significant loss” for the week. Soo many candidates. SFA, Kennesaw and Southern Illinois, I’m looking at you.

Glad it helped. The remaining HTFs will have the Massey, Sagarin, and two polls listed on them. I just figured since all of these (Massey, Sagarin, and preseason polls) are based on conjecture and not on games that had been played yet (discounting week 0), that they were not worth including in the first HTF.

[McCowboys]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Preferred Walk-On again.

ditto

[GoBlueHens83]

FUBeAR decided to be a non-voter, so any comment he may make, perhaps, is invalid.

But, if asked, he would answer your query thusly…

Don’t be lazy like the Playoff Selection Committee. It’s possible for an FCS Team to have a “meh win” over an FBS Team (W&M over CLT, for example) and should not receive any ‘boost’ for that win AND it’s possible for an FCS Team to have a ‘good loss’ to an FBS Team (Bryant to FIU comes to mind) and should be moved up as a result of that game. So, maybe there’s no ‘ding’ at all for losing to an FBS Team (P5 or otherwise). Maybe a Team moves up, based on their ‘showing,’ as Bryant should. The same is true, IFBO, for non-D1 wins/losses, but sort of inversely.

Bottom Line - IFBO - don’t be lazy like the Playoff Selection Committee evaluating performances/competition by some artificially-created alphanumeric assignation. Evaluate each Team based on their performance against your best assessment of the (individual) quality of the Team(s) they have beaten and/or lost to.

While I understand your point and agree with what you're trying to say, I think your W&M and Bryant comparisons are not great. Charlotte was 5-7 last year and FIU was 1-11. So you're saying that The Tribe winning 41-24 is somehow less impressive than Bryant losing, to a team that was worse than Charlotte and in fact lost to Charlotte last year?

[caribbeanhen]

Really it’s about watching games and I’m not talking about the whole game of course, but just check in on some games

[FUBeAR]

While I understand your point and agree with what you're trying to say, I think your W&M and Bryant comparisons are not great. Charlotte was 5-7 last year and FIU was 1-11. So you're saying that The Tribe winning 41-24 is somehow less impressive than Bryant losing, to a team that was worse than Charlotte and in fact lost to Charlotte last year?
https://y.yarn.co/c9266411-7284-4c19-92c5-bf3bd1a21f1b_text.gif

On your pre-season 130, where did you have W&M? How about Bryant?

One STATS voter, who compiled such a list had W&M @ #34 & Bryant @ #75. You’re only considering the “who did we beat” part of the calculus and ignoring the “where are we” part

Let’s look further…

Massey had Charlotte @ #148 in D1 & had W&M @ #146 - HIGHER than CLT - on a neutral site Massey favored W&M to win.

Massey had FIU @ #171 in D1 and Bryant @ #220…most likely, a projected blowout; virtually zero chance of a 1-point loss in OT.

Thus…as FUBeAR (correctly) stated…

W&M had a “meh” win over a Team they might have been expected to beat regardless of which letters show up on the spoon when the Teams eat alphabet soup at their respective Training Tables. (FUBeAR did pick W&M to win this game, y’know). So…if some Teams in front of the Tribe underperformed, we should think about moving the Green & Gold up.

Bryant’s result was shocking relative to where the Bulldogs and FIU were judged to be prior to their contest. Bryant had every chance to pull off a huge upset and outplayed a Team judged by most to be far better than them. Hence, wherever one had them ranked previously, they should get a boost vs. a ding for this loss.