Playoff Prognostications - Into Week Eight

[TexasTerror]

Just having fun here. Must admit that putting Delaware St in was tough. Not sure what will happen in the MEAC. That's a huge wild card.

SoCon, Big Sky and Gateway are going to be interesting too.

Youngstown St has to win three of their final four to hit seven wins which will be tough with WIU, Illinois St and UNI on tap Missouri St must win out.

EWU has to win four of their last five to reach seven Div I wins and one of those games is FBS BYU. NAU has to win out to hit seven. Montana St has to win four out of last five.

The Citadel and Elon have to win four of five to hit seven. Bets are against GA Southern with AppSt and Wofford on road plus FBS game at Colorado St.

As far as CAA goes - Richmond or UNH could make their way in inplace of one of the below CAA teams depending on how things shake.


Auto:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Norfolk St
OVC - Eastern Kentucky
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Wofford
SLC - McNeese

At-Larges:
Colonial - James Madison, Hofstra, Delaware
Gateway - Western Illinois, Southern Illinois
MEAC - Delaware St
SoCon - Appalachian St
SLC - Nicholls St

Playoff Bracket
Nicholls St @ Montana (4)
Western Illinois @ McNeese

Eastern Kentucky @ UNI (1)
Hofstra @ Appalachian St

James Madison @ Wofford (3)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Norfolk St @ Southern Illinois
Lafayette @ UMass (2)

[appfan2008]

who would your seeds be???

[TexasTerror]

who would your seeds be???

Having a tough time with that...

Would figure it would be Montana, Wofford, UNI and UMass...so that would mean I would have to change my bracket to reflect such...

[appfan2008]

its all good... you have plenty of time for that!

[rufus]

James Madison @ Wofford (3)
I don't know about the rest of your predictions, but this part sounds about right. I fully expect that a 9-2 or 10-1 JMU team will be sent on the road in the first round, just like last year's 9-2 squad was sent to YSU. Despite being able to out bid anyone other than Delaware, App State, and Montana, JMU will never play a home playoff game.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

I don't know about the rest of your predictions, but this part sounds about right. I fully expect that a 9-2 or 10-1 JMU team will be sent on the road in the first round, just like last year's 9-2 squad was sent to YSU. Despite being able to out bid anyone other than Delaware, App State, and Montana, JMU will never play a home playoff game.

We will use the 2004 game plan...take it on the road...:D

[ASU88]

Only halfway there now so it's too early to tell, but JMU @ Wofford would be a heckuva a game. I would love to watch that one.

[FargoBison]

1.UNI vs Nicholls State

JMU vs YSU

UD vs Del State

4.Wofford vs EKU


2.Montana vs WIU

McNeese vs SIU

App St vs Hofstra

3.UMASS vs Lafayette


Last teams out...UNH, EWU, and Cal Poly

[UNHWildCats]

I.UNI vs Nicholls State

JMU vs YSU

UD vs Del State

4.Wofford vs EKU


2.Montana vs WIU

McNeese vs SIU

App St vs Hofstra

3.UMASS vs Lafayette


Last teams out...UNH, EWU, and Cal Poly

UNH will take care of that this weekend xsmiley_wix

[blukeys]

Oddly enough, Del State capturing the MEAC crown (I still have my DSU student ID from the summer) might benefit UD. An 8-3 UD team might be a borderline pick for the playoffs BUT, if given the opportunity to match up UD and DSU in a first ever game, the NCAA would get some positive publicity and of course a very good crowd for this event.

I hate to be so cynical. Of course I would never believe the NCAA would put financial gain and public relations above competitiveness and pure sportsmanship. ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

[slostang]

Do not count out Cal Poly and the GWFC out.

[pantherfan]

1.UNI vs Nicholls State

JMU vs YSU

UD vs Del State

4.Wofford vs EKU


2.Montana vs WIU

McNeese vs SIU

App St vs Hofstra

3.UMASS vs Lafayette


Last teams out...UNH, EWU, and Cal Poly

I love your enthusiasm for the Gateway, but 3 is as many as we'll get. WIU and/or YSU must beat UNI to have a chance at 4 bids. IF UNI beats both in the next two weeks, YSU vs. WIU will decide the third Gateway team. They both lose to UNI, and the loser of their matchup would have 4losses.xcoffeex Of course, the playoff committee could decide to give your future conference a "stand in" for NDSU and give us 4 anyways..;)

[McNeese_beat]

Just having fun here. Must admit that putting Delaware St in was tough. Not sure what will happen in the MEAC. That's a huge wild card.

SoCon, Big Sky and Gateway are going to be interesting too.

Youngstown St has to win three of their final four to hit seven wins which will be tough with WIU, Illinois St and UNI on tap Missouri St must win out.

EWU has to win four of their last five to reach seven Div I wins and one of those games is FBS BYU. NAU has to win out to hit seven. Montana St has to win four out of last five.

The Citadel and Elon have to win four of five to hit seven. Bets are against GA Southern with AppSt and Wofford on road plus FBS game at Colorado St.

As far as CAA goes - Richmond or UNH could make their way in inplace of one of the below CAA teams depending on how things shake.


Auto:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Norfolk St
OVC - Eastern Kentucky
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Wofford
SLC - McNeese

At-Larges:
Colonial - James Madison, Hofstra, Delaware
Gateway - Western Illinois, Southern Illinois
MEAC - Delaware St
SoCon - Appalachian St
SLC - Nicholls St

Playoff Bracket
Nicholls St @ Montana (4)
Western Illinois @ McNeese

Eastern Kentucky @ UNI (1)
Hofstra @ Appalachian St

James Madison @ Wofford (3)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Norfolk St @ Southern Illinois
Lafayette @ UMass (2)

I'll bite and start with a qualifier that I am doing this based on how I predict (very unscientifically) how the season will pan out and not how I would pick them if the season ended today (which doesn't make any sense to do to me, because it's an incomplete season).

*Montana State at McNeese State (4)
Nicholls State at Montana
NOTES: I'm thinking the western U.S. will give us two teams: Montana and either MSU, EWU or Cal Poly. All three have a fair chance. Northern Arizona has an outside shot but MSU, EWU and Cal Poly have reason to be optimistic. Cal Poly has two tough games, at South Dakota State and vs. North Dakota State (at home, which is huge). If they beat NDSU, they could go 9-2 and get in. MSU gets Montana at home. EWU has already played the two Montana teams and PSU and has one more tough Big Sky game, at Northern Arizona. It also has a probably loss to BYU, so 8-3 is a realistic hope. I don't see there being enough mediocrity this year for San Diego to climb into the picture.
McNeese gets the seed over Montana. I see Montana as more likely to drop a game it should win based on the Griz's constant near-misses and McNeese's 20 point average margin of victory. Both teams have similarly tough conference games ahead (Nicholls and Central Ark. for McNeese and PSU, Montana State, Northern Arizona for Montana).
Moving on...

Eastern Kentucky at Northern Iowa (1)
Western Illinois at James Madison
NOTES: Could have just said "OVC champ" instead of Eastern Kentucky, it's all the same. I give JMU a home game. They have a chance to finish strong and they draw well. I like the Colonial.

Fordham at UMass (2)
Delaware State at App State

NOTES: The Colonial is so dang hard to pick because there are so many good teams. I worry about Delaware with Navy coming ahead of three straight tough conference games, so I wonder if they can go 2-2 and make the playoffs. Richmond is behind the 8-ball after losing to Towson. I picked Hofstra because, at 6-0, they have more margin for error against their remaining schedule than some other teams. I give Delaware State the nod in the MEAC based on home field vs. Norfolk.

And, finally
New Hampshire at Wofford (3)
Hofstra at Southern Illinois

Have a hard time giving Wofford a home game, but right now, their conference championship is in their grasp. Replace New Hampshire or Hofstra with any Colonial contender not already listed and I'm just as good with it. I like New Hampshire and, as I said earlier, Hofstra's got all that margin for error.

I left out GSU, but if you plugged GSU in for New Hampshire or Hofstra's spot, I'd buy it.

Still a lot of football to be played though. It's fun to look at these possibilities, but the safest prediction of all is that this time next week all our predictions will probably look kinda dumb...

[th0m]

GSU has yet to play a competitive (competitive, I'm not even talking ranked here) SoCon team and win, I don't see them anywhere near the playoff picture, to be honest.

[slostang]

1.UNI vs Nicholls State

JMU vs YSU

UD vs Del State

4.Wofford vs EKU


2.Montana vs WIU

McNeese vs SIU

App St vs Hofstra

3.UMASS vs Lafayette


Last teams out...UNH, EWU, and Cal Poly

Hey FargoBison, Cal Poly's win over the #1 Bison Nov. 17th will spring Cal Poly into the playoffs.xsmiley_wix

[blur2005]

Can JMU please get a home game? Pretty please?

[CharlestonAppFan]

I'll bite and start with a qualifier that I am doing this based on how I predict (very unscientifically) how the season will pan out and not how I would pick them if the season ended today (which doesn't make any sense to do to me, because it's an incomplete season).

*Montana State at McNeese State (4)
Nicholls State at Montana
NOTES: I'm thinking the western U.S. will give us two teams: Montana and either MSU, EWU or Cal Poly. All three have a fair chance. Northern Arizona has an outside shot but MSU, EWU and Cal Poly have reason to be optimistic. Cal Poly has two tough games, at South Dakota State and vs. North Dakota State (at home, which is huge). If they beat NDSU, they could go 9-2 and get in. MSU gets Montana at home. EWU has already played the two Montana teams and PSU and has one more tough Big Sky game, at Northern Arizona. It also has a probably loss to BYU, so 8-3 is a realistic hope. I don't see there being enough mediocrity this year for San Diego to climb into the picture.
McNeese gets the seed over Montana. I see Montana as more likely to drop a game it should win based on the Griz's constant near-misses and McNeese's 20 point average margin of victory. Both teams have similarly tough conference games ahead (Nicholls and Central Ark. for McNeese and PSU, Montana State, Northern Arizona for Montana).
Moving on...

Eastern Kentucky at Northern Iowa (1)
Western Illinois at James Madison
NOTES: Could have just said "OVC champ" instead of Eastern Kentucky, it's all the same. I give JMU a home game. They have a chance to finish strong and they draw well. I like the Colonial.

Fordham at UMass (2)
Delaware State at Delaware

NOTES: The Colonial is so dang hard to pick because there are so many good teams. I worry about Delaware with Navy coming ahead of three straight tough conference games, so I wonder if they can go 2-2 and make the playoffs. Richmond is behind the 8-ball after losing to Towson. I picked Hofstra because, at 6-0, they have more margin for error against their remaining schedule than some other teams. I give Delaware State the nod in the MEAC based on home field vs. Norfolk.

And, finally
New Hampshire at Wofford (3)
Hofstra at Southern Illinois

Have a hard time giving Wofford a home game, but right now, their conference championship is in their grasp. Replace New Hampshire or Hofstra with any Colonial contender not already listed and I'm just as good with it. I like New Hampshire and, as I said earlier, Hofstra's got all that margin for error.

I left out GSU, but if you plugged GSU in for New Hampshire or Hofstra's spot, I'd buy it.

Still a lot of football to be played though. It's fun to look at these possibilities, but the safest prediction of all is that this time next week all our predictions will probably look kinda dumb...

So you're predicting App loses every game from this week on and not make the playoffs? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xnonox xnonox That's funny right there, I don't care who you arexlolx xlolx xlolx

[danefan]

Just a question that I'm sure will be beat to death in the upcoming weeks, but here goes.......If San Diego whoops Davis, I mean whoops, by like 4 TD's, do they deserve an at-large?

I'm not sure and I'm not advocating either way.

My opinion is that it depends on how the rest of FCS turns out.

[Maroons]

If EKU wins out (which is, of course, not a given), the Colonels will finish 9-2 without a loss to a single FCS opponent. No one thinks this may result in a Gateway team being sent to Richmond for the first round a la whoever was sent to UT-Martin last year?

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Enough with the "can JMU get a home game" thing. The world is not against us. xrotatehx

I share your pain, but really, screw us once, shame on me (read: Lehigh), screw us twice, shame on you (read: YSU), screw us three times - well, at that point we need to think long and hard about adopting the Furman "FU" chant at kickoff! xnodx :D

Seriously, we've been screwed by our lack of a bid, and then by the committee. If JMU doesn't get a home game this year (assuming JMU makes the field), then it will be a second time that either our Admin shows ineptitude or the committee shows favoritism to other schools (would also not surprise most of us.

We shall see... but please, stop whining and complaining. It gets real old, and I am a JMU fan. Can't imagine what those silly Blue Hens must be thinking every time they read one of these posts. Oh wait, yeah I can, "Thank God the NCAA loves a stadium where people can pee freely on a wall" xrolleyesx xsmiley_wix

[SunCoastBlueHen]

Oddly enough, Del State capturing the MEAC crown (I still have my DSU student ID from the summer) might benefit UD. An 8-3 UD team might be a borderline pick for the playoffs BUT, if given the opportunity to match up UD and DSU in a first ever game, the NCAA would get some positive publicity and of course a very good crowd for this event.

No doubt, Blu. I had the same thought. xnodx

[Houndawg]

If EKU wins out (which is, of course, not a given), the Colonels will finish 9-2 without a loss to a single FCS opponent. No one thinks this may result in a Gateway team being sent to Richmond for the first round a la whoever was sent to UT-Martin last year?

I think UT-Martin went to SIU last year. Maybe that was the second round.

[Millwoch]

Elon and The Citadel have better chances than GSU....Elon must beat Woffy saturday IMHO and Citadel must beat Appy and 2/3 of either WCU, GSU and Elon. GSU has Appy and FU on the road and Cit at home...one loss to their already 2 and they are out.

[CID1990]

Elon and The Citadel have better chances than GSU....Elon must beat Woffy saturday IMHO and Citadel must beat Appy and 2/3 of either WCU, GSU and Elon. GSU has Appy and FU on the road and Cit at home...one loss to their already 2 and they are out.

We have to win out, Millwoch. History tells us that we get no love from the playoff selection committee unless we are #2 in the conference. The only way to be #2 in the SoCon is for us to win out, because Wofford WILL win out.

[Millwoch]

We have to win out, Millwoch. History tells us that we get no love from the playoff selection committee unless we are #2 in the conference. The only way to be #2 in the SoCon is for us to win out, because Wofford WILL win out.


i agree...that is why we have to beat Appy...If we beat them, we can slip up to either Elon or GSU and beat Appy in the tie breaker who will also have 2 losses. Not sure we are there yet...but it is possible. And if Elon wins this week, everything is upside down again. I personally think we need Woffy to win out and hope we beat Appy (no small task). My main point was that GSU is even further back...I think we are a very outside chance, if any at this point.

[HensRock]

I think it's still way too early for this, but what the heck...

Auto Qualifiers:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Del. State
OVC - EKU
Patriot - Holy Cross
SoCon - Wofford
Southland - McNeese St.

At Large:
Delaware
Hofstra
James Madison
Southern Ill.
WIU or YSU
Norfolk State
Appalachian State
Nicholls State

Seeds:
#1 UNI
#2 Wofford
#3 Montana
#4 UMass

#1 UNI hosts EKU
WIU or YSU hosts Hofstra

#4 UMass hosts Holy Cross
Delaware hosts Del. State

#3 Montana hosts Nicholls St.
McNeese St. hosts So. Ill.

#2 Wofford hosts Norfolk St.
Appalachian St. hosts JMU

[Maroons]

I think UT-Martin went to SIU last year. Maybe that was the second round.

You are correct. It was Illinois State that was sent to EIU last year. I had my OVC teams confused. Still, EIU hosted a home playoff game last year.

I-AA Playoff Recaps (http://http://www.collegesportingnews.com/article.asp?articleid=82976)

[Ronin]

Sounds about right Montana will have a patsy at home. Again no real competition to test Montana until the leave the friendly confines of Montana.

How about Montana playing McNeese St at Lake Charles, LA?

[McNeese75]

Sounds about right Montana will have a patsy at home. Again no real competition to test Montana until the leave the friendly confines of Montana.

How about Montana playing McNeese St at Lake Charles, LA?

If the Griz keep throwing up offensive numbers like last week, It could happen xnodx

[FCS Go!]

If the Griz keep throwing up offensive numbers like last week, It could happen xnodx

If current level of play continues, it'll be a first round game in Lake Charles.

[McNeese_beat]

So you're predicting App loses every game from this week on and not make the playoffs? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xnonox xnonox That's funny right there, I don't care who you arexlolx xlolx xlolx

Whoops!!!!!!xrotatehx

That's what I get for drawing a bracket at midnight....

I was sitting there trying to figure out where I would send App State and I wound up leaving them out...back to the drawing board....;)

[McNeese_beat]

So you're predicting App loses every game from this week on and not make the playoffs? xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xnonox xnonox That's funny right there, I don't care who you arexlolx xlolx xlolx

Awight...I revised it in the original, but I'll repost it too...

*Montana State at McNeese State (4)
Nicholls State at Montana
NOTES: I'm thinking the western U.S. will give us two teams: Montana and either MSU, EWU or Cal Poly. All three have a fair chance. Northern Arizona has an outside shot but MSU, EWU and Cal Poly have reason to be optimistic. Cal Poly has two tough games, at South Dakota State and vs. North Dakota State (at home, which is huge). If they beat NDSU, they could go 9-2 and get in. MSU gets Montana at home. EWU has already played the two Montana teams and PSU and has one more tough Big Sky game, at Northern Arizona. It also has a probably loss to BYU, so 8-3 is a realistic hope. I don't see there being enough mediocrity this year for San Diego to climb into the picture.
McNeese gets the seed over Montana. I see Montana as more likely to drop a game it should win based on the Griz's constant near-misses and McNeese's 20 point average margin of victory. Both teams have similarly tough conference games ahead (Nicholls and Central Ark. for McNeese and PSU, Montana State, Northern Arizona for Montana).
Moving on...

Eastern Kentucky at Northern Iowa (1)
Western Illinois at James Madison
NOTES: Could have just said "OVC champ" instead of Eastern Kentucky, it's all the same. I give JMU a home game. They have a chance to finish strong and they draw well. I like the Colonial.

Fordham at UMass (2)
Delaware State at App State

NOTES: The Colonial is so dang hard to pick because there are so many good teams. I worry about Delaware with Navy coming ahead of three straight tough conference games, so I wonder if they can go 2-2 and make the playoffs. Richmond is behind the 8-ball after losing to Towson. I picked Hofstra because, at 6-0, they have more margin for error against their remaining schedule than some other teams. I give Delaware State the nod in the MEAC based on home field vs. Norfolk.

And, finally
New Hampshire at Wofford (3)
Hofstra at Southern Illinois

Have a hard time giving Wofford a home game, but right now, their conference championship is in their grasp. Replace New Hampshire or Hofstra with Delaware or any other Colonial contender not already listed and I'm just as good with it. I like New Hampshire and, as I said earlier, Hofstra's got all that margin for error.

I left out GSU, but if you plugged GSU in for New Hampshire or Hofstra's spot, I'd buy it.

Still a lot of football to be played though. It's fun to look at these possibilities, but the safest prediction of all is that this time next week all our predictions will probably look kinda dumb...

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

In your prediction, Del St. and JMU would play each other due to geographical necessity (or maybe Hofstra, like UNH going to Hampton last year... xrolleyesx )

Anyway, I really don't see things shaking out like that, but we'll see.

[bigchocolate]

Hen, I agree that its much to early for this, but in the MEAC SC State should still win the auto qualifier with Del State finishing 2nd. Norfolk will need to win a few road conference games before I'll give them anything except a (thumbs up) for improving

I think it's still way too early for this, but what the heck...

Auto Qualifiers:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Del. State
OVC - EKU
Patriot - Holy Cross
SoCon - Wofford
Southland - McNeese St.

At Large:
Delaware
Hofstra
James Madison
Southern Ill.
WIU or YSU
Norfolk State
Appalachian State
Nicholls State

Seeds:
#1 UNI
#2 Wofford
#3 Montana
#4 UMass

#1 UNI hosts EKU
WIU or YSU hosts Hofstra

#4 UMass hosts Holy Cross
Delaware hosts Del. State

#3 Montana hosts Nicholls St.
McNeese St. hosts So. Ill.

#2 Wofford hosts Norfolk St.
Appalachian St. hosts JMU

[Pauly LB]

Hey FargoBison, Cal Poly's win over the #1 Bison Nov. 17th will spring Cal Poly into the playoffs.xsmiley_wix

Actually the game against NDSU is Nov 10th. Hopefully on Nov 17th Cal Poly can close out the regular season in preparation for the playoffs by taking out Iona...

If Cal Poly can win their remaining four games that would be 8 division 1 wins. Even though 7 wins qualify for the playoffs, they really need to win their remaining 4 games.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Hens - OUCH! You think we whine now? If JMU had to go @ App St., @Wofford (#2 seed) and a semi-final @Montana... WOW! Makes 2004 look like child's play! :)

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I agree with most of this, but I think surely either the BSC or the Socon will have another 8+ win team other than the ones you have listed. I also disagree with you excluding Youngstown State. Even if their only remaining loss in the season is to UNI, at 8-3 I think they will get the AL bid over a playoff-eligible MEAC team.

[CharlestonAppFan]

Awight...I revised it in the original, but I'll repost it too...

*Montana State at McNeese State (4)
Nicholls State at Montana
NOTES: I'm thinking the western U.S. will give us two teams: Montana and either MSU, EWU or Cal Poly. All three have a fair chance. Northern Arizona has an outside shot but MSU, EWU and Cal Poly have reason to be optimistic. Cal Poly has two tough games, at South Dakota State and vs. North Dakota State (at home, which is huge). If they beat NDSU, they could go 9-2 and get in. MSU gets Montana at home. EWU has already played the two Montana teams and PSU and has one more tough Big Sky game, at Northern Arizona. It also has a probably loss to BYU, so 8-3 is a realistic hope. I don't see there being enough mediocrity this year for San Diego to climb into the picture.
McNeese gets the seed over Montana. I see Montana as more likely to drop a game it should win based on the Griz's constant near-misses and McNeese's 20 point average margin of victory. Both teams have similarly tough conference games ahead (Nicholls and Central Ark. for McNeese and PSU, Montana State, Northern Arizona for Montana).
Moving on...

Eastern Kentucky at Northern Iowa (1)
Western Illinois at James Madison
NOTES: Could have just said "OVC champ" instead of Eastern Kentucky, it's all the same. I give JMU a home game. They have a chance to finish strong and they draw well. I like the Colonial.

Fordham at UMass (2)
Delaware State at App State

NOTES: The Colonial is so dang hard to pick because there are so many good teams. I worry about Delaware with Navy coming ahead of three straight tough conference games, so I wonder if they can go 2-2 and make the playoffs. Richmond is behind the 8-ball after losing to Towson. I picked Hofstra because, at 6-0, they have more margin for error against their remaining schedule than some other teams. I give Delaware State the nod in the MEAC based on home field vs. Norfolk.

And, finally
New Hampshire at Wofford (3)
Hofstra at Southern Illinois

Have a hard time giving Wofford a home game, but right now, their conference championship is in their grasp. Replace New Hampshire or Hofstra with Delaware or any other Colonial contender not already listed and I'm just as good with it. I like New Hampshire and, as I said earlier, Hofstra's got all that margin for error.

I left out GSU, but if you plugged GSU in for New Hampshire or Hofstra's spot, I'd buy it.

Still a lot of football to be played though. It's fun to look at these possibilities, but the safest prediction of all is that this time next week all our predictions will probably look kinda dumb...

Better but I would have App in Wuffurd's bracket based on geography issues.xthumbsupx

[McNeese_beat]

Better but I would have App in Wuffurd's bracket based on geography issues.xthumbsupx

Two things jumped out at me doing this...

1. There really aren't many teams left with reasonable post-season hopes. Maybe 30-something
2. It's a waste of time trying to figure out who out of those 30-something are going to make it.

It's based on observation No. 1 that I've been telling Montana fans to get off the ledge. Much of the country would love to have the problems they are having right now...

[HensRock]

Hen, I agree that its much to early for this, but in the MEAC SC State should still win the auto qualifier with Del State finishing 2nd. Norfolk will need to win a few road conference games before I'll give them anything except a (thumbs up) for improving

SC State already has 3 losses including 1 to Norfolk State. They still have to face Hampton and DSU in conference play. I'm thinking the chances for playoffs look slim. It seems to me only DSU and NSU control their own destiny in the MEAC. Nov. 10 game could be for the conference title.

[henfan]

JMU-Norfolk State or UD-DSU could be interesting 1st Round matchups if those teams make it.

[bigchocolate]

My prognostication is relevant only if SC State is able to win @ Hampton this weekend. Del State plays SC State in Orangeburg, SC and Del State will lose that game. Norfolk travels to Del State where they will take a "L". I don't see the improved Norfolk State team running the table on the road. They (Norfolk) beat SC State in double overtime and Hampton by 1 at home. Remember SC State lost to Airforce and the University of South Carolina along with the overtime lose on the road to Norfolk. The above mentioned senario is highly probable. Only time will tell!!!xeyebrowx


SC State already has 3 losses including 1 to Norfolk State. They still have to face Hampton and DSU in conference play. I'm thinking the chances for playoffs look slim. It seems to me only DSU and NSU control their own destiny in the MEAC. Nov. 10 game could be for the conference title.

[appfan2008]

i know money matters (a lot) but i am not a fan of the instate games... i wish it didnt matter where the teams were located, they were ranked 1-16 again and you could be sent across the country in any round

[ASU_Chad]

Honest question to any and all. If App wins out the rest of the schedule with a win against Michigan and the only loss being to a top 5 Wofford on the road, do we really have no chance at a seed with the bid (attendance) advantage?

[UNHWildCats]

Just a question that I'm sure will be beat to death in the upcoming weeks, but here goes.......If San Diego whoops Davis, I mean whoops, by like 4 TD's, do they deserve an at-large?

I'm not sure and I'm not advocating either way.

My opinion is that it depends on how the rest of FCS turns out.

NO!

was that loud enough xthumbsupx

[Peems]

Mcneese_beat, you made a few errors in the Big Sky regarding PSU. No problems though. First off PSU has already played NAU and lost when they went for two 43-44. Therefore they can't be the hardest game remaining for the Vikes. However they still have to play both Montana teams and that will be tough. I think they can definitely split or possibly win both. EWU still has to play BYU this weekend and then a few weeks later has to play NAU at flagstaff. We'll see, hopefully the Big Sky can have two bids this year.

[appfan2008]

Honest question to any and all. If App wins out the rest of the schedule with a win against Michigan and the only loss being to a top 5 Wofford on the road, do we really have no chance at a seed with the bid (attendance) advantage?

if we win out we WILL be a top 2 seed.

[McNeese_beat]

Mcneese_beat, you made a few errors in the Big Sky regarding PSU. No problems though. First off PSU has already played NAU and lost when they went for two 43-44. Therefore they can't be the hardest game remaining for the Vikes. However they still have to play both Montana teams and that will be tough. I think they can definitely split or possibly win both. EWU still has to play BYU this weekend and then a few weeks later has to play NAU at flagstaff. We'll see, hopefully the Big Sky can have two bids this year.

I think you misread what I said. It reads:

"EWU has already played the two Montana teams and PSU and has one more tough Big Sky game, at Northern Arizona. It also has a probably loss to BYU, so 8-3 is a realistic hope."


I was saying EWU has one more tough game, at NAU, not that PSU has to play NAU. EWU has played the two Montana teams and PSU.

It's worded a little awkwardly. sorry. That post was thinking out loud...or thinking on a keyboard, as was the case.

[T-Dog]

Honest question to any and all. If App wins out the rest of the schedule with a win against Michigan and the only loss being to a top 5 Wofford on the road, do we really have no chance at a seed with the bid (attendance) advantage?

Not as much that we'll win out but more that other lose so we slip in.

I can't see the NCAA passing on having at least 2 App St home playoff games (as long as we win out) or at least one and then a game at Wofford (assuming they win out).

I fully expect ASU and Wofford to be put in the same bracket and meet in the qtrs or semis (provided they win to make it that far)

[rufus]

It's funny that everyone seems to have their minds made up that UMass will get the CAA autobid. You still have three teams that are undefeated in conference play: Hofstra (3-0), UMass (3-0), and JMU (4-0). Hofstra and UMass have to play each other at Hofstra. I think the Flying Dutchmen, or whatever, have a pretty decent shot at winning that game.

There's actually a good chance that the CAA title will be decided by the conference's tie-breaker rules. If Hofstra, UMass, and JMU all finish with one conference loss, the title goes to Hofstra. JMU and UMass have FBS losses. Hofstra didn't play an FBS team.

[McTailGator]

Sounds about right Montana will have a patsy at home. Again no real competition to test Montana until the leave the friendly confines of Montana.

How about Montana playing McNeese St at Lake Charles, LA?

I don't think they will place McNeese and Montana together in round one. BOTH have good attendance, and both sell their tickets for a lot, so the NCAA would lose money.

THey did it last year, because McNeese's fan base was still recovering from Hurricanes and had not yet returned to the stands in full force yet. They are BACK now.

In fact, I'm not certain the SLC would necessarily be paired with the BSC again this time, given the North Dakota State and UNI's standings. It's actually a closer distance and easier for them to travel out west than it is for an SLC school. I see McNeese & Nichols being paired with the OVC, and Southern Conferences this time around. With a Gateway team possibly falling into the mix.

Just my thoughts.

[McTailGator]

Just a question that I'm sure will be beat to death in the upcoming weeks, but here goes.......If San Diego whoops Davis, I mean whoops, by like 4 TD's, do they deserve an at-large?

I'm not sure and I'm not advocating either way.

My opinion is that it depends on how the rest of FCS turns out.


NO

[McTailGator]

Better but I would have App in Wuffurd's bracket based on geography issues.xthumbsupx


I would not be supprised if Wuff, App, Nichols and McNeese don't end up in the same brack this year.

[Peems]

I think you misread what I said. It reads:

"EWU has already played the two Montana teams and PSU and has one more tough Big Sky game, at Northern Arizona. It also has a probably loss to BYU, so 8-3 is a realistic hope."


I was saying EWU has one more tough game, at NAU, not that PSU has to play NAU. EWU has played the two Montana teams and PSU.

It's worded a little awkwardly. sorry. That post was thinking out loud...or thinking on a keyboard, as was the case.

Sorry, my bad:o I understand nowxpeacex

[HensRock]

Honest question to any and all. If App wins out the rest of the schedule with a win against Michigan and the only loss being to a top 5 Wofford on the road, do we really have no chance at a seed with the bid (attendance) advantage?

App State certainly has a chance at a seed. I beleive the Socon has had 2 seeded teams before. It all depends on how the rest of the teams do though.

[RabidRabbit]

App State certainly has a chance at a seed. I beleive the Socon has had 2 seeded teams before. It all depends on how the rest of the teams do though.

Has a top 4 seed EVER NOT BEEN THE AQ of the conferences? When and who? xconfusedx xconfusedx

[FanOfAllThatIsJMU]

2004
(2) Furman
(4) Georgia Southern

both were co-champions though

happened in 2001 too with Furman and GSU

[TexasTerror]

Has a top 4 seed EVER NOT BEEN THE AQ of the conferences? When and who? xconfusedx xconfusedx

Texas State, 2005...

Nicholls State won the AQ...

Bobcats were #4 seed...

[DB_Atlantic10]

Just having fun here. Must admit that putting Delaware St in was tough. Not sure what will happen in the MEAC. That's a huge wild card.

SoCon, Big Sky and Gateway are going to be interesting too.

Youngstown St has to win three of their final four to hit seven wins which will be tough with WIU, Illinois St and UNI on tap Missouri St must win out.

EWU has to win four of their last five to reach seven Div I wins and one of those games is FBS BYU. NAU has to win out to hit seven. Montana St has to win four out of last five.

The Citadel and Elon have to win four of five to hit seven. Bets are against GA Southern with AppSt and Wofford on road plus FBS game at Colorado St.

As far as CAA goes - Richmond or UNH could make their way in inplace of one of the below CAA teams depending on how things shake.


Auto:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Norfolk St
OVC - Eastern Kentucky
Patriot - Lafayette
SoCon - Wofford
SLC - McNeese

At-Larges:
Colonial - James Madison, Hofstra, Delaware
Gateway - Western Illinois, Southern Illinois
MEAC - Delaware St
SoCon - Appalachian St
SLC - Nicholls St

Playoff Bracket
Nicholls St @ Montana (4)
Western Illinois @ McNeese

Eastern Kentucky @ UNI (1)
Hofstra @ Appalachian St

James Madison @ Wofford (3)
Delaware St @ Delaware

Norfolk St @ Southern Illinois
Lafayette @ UMass (2)

Norfolk St. is a lot closer to Wofford than JMU....if anything, SIU if nothing changes will have to visit JMU and NSU would go to Wofford.

[DB_Atlantic10]

I agree with most of this, but I think surely either the BSC or the Socon will have another 8+ win team other than the ones you have listed. I also disagree with you excluding Youngstown State. Even if their only remaining loss in the season is to UNI, at 8-3 I think they will get the AL bid over a playoff-eligible MEAC team.
Was any of those 8 wins a D-II?

[Ronin]

i know money matters (a lot) but i am not a fan of the instate games... i wish it didnt matter where the teams were located, they were ranked 1-16 again and you could be sent across the country in any round

I agree. The original poster had some interesting match-ups for the brackets.

[DB_Atlantic10]

It's funny that everyone seems to have their minds made up that UMass will get the CAA autobid. You still have three teams that are undefeated in conference play: Hofstra (3-0), UMass (3-0), and JMU (4-0). Hofstra and UMass have to play each other at Hofstra. I think the Flying Dutchmen, or whatever, have a pretty decent shot at winning that game.

There's actually a good chance that the CAA title will be decided by the conference's tie-breaker rules. If Hofstra, UMass, and JMU all finish with one conference loss, the title goes to Hofstra. JMU and UMass have FBS losses. Hofstra didn't play an FBS team. That doesn't make any sense....Hofstra and UMass has yet to play each other....so by default one of them will have a tie breaker and the winner will either go undefeated or have two losses. If Hofstra losses to anyone other than UMass, then they would have an FCS loss on their resume against JMU/UMass's FBS loss....Hmmm, which is stronger?

[Ronin]

Delaware St @ UNI
Youngstown @ Lafayette

Appalachian St @ Norfolk St
Delaware @ James Madison

Southern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky
Hofstra @ Wofford

Nicholls St @ UMass
Montana @ McNeese

[DuckDuckGriz]

Delaware St @ UNI
Youngstown @ Lafayette

Appalachian St @ Norfolk St
Delaware @ James Madison

Southern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky
Hofstra @ Wofford

Nicholls St @ UMass
Montana @ McNeese

Those two programs both bring in alot of attendance and $$ - if the committee can, they will try to keep them both at home.

Also how do you figure App State on the road at Norfolk State?

[skinny_uncle]

Delaware St @ UNI
Youngstown @ Lafayette

Appalachian St @ Norfolk St
Delaware @ James Madison

Southern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky
Hofstra @ Wofford

Nicholls St @ UMass
Montana @ McNeese
If the bold teams are your seeds, that would make SIU and App State home teams.

[Ronin]

I took the unusual approach of rewarding those that won their conference over those that are seeded for home field. It does create some interesting match-ups.

The match-ups were based for the most part on record and strength of schedule.

[Griz0383]

IF Edwards is healthy at the end of the year ASU will again win the NC!

[nmatsen]

Question, I am not saying that this WILL happen, just "what if"?

If UNI and SIU run the table leaving UNI the one seed at 11-0 (which we would be if we run the table) how could you not possibly give SIU a seed somewhere between 2-4 seeings how their only loss would be a one score loss on the road to what people would proclaim the best team in the nation leaving them 10-1?

[Houndawg]

Question, I am not saying that this WILL happen, just "what if"?

If UNI and SIU run the table leaving UNI the one seed at 11-0 (which we would be if we run the table) how could you not possibly give SIU a seed somewhere between 2-4 seeings how their only loss would be a one score loss on the road to what people would proclaim the best team in the nation leaving them 10-1?

Lots of 10-1 teams with very tough schedules? I sure do hope you're right, bro.

[AlphaSigMD]

Has a top 4 seed EVER NOT BEEN THE AQ of the conferences? When and who? xconfusedx xconfusedx

Wasn't their that situation with Montana and Montana State a few years ago?

I dunno if montana got a seed that year or not though, but Montana State got the Autobid with a pretty bad record.

[FCS Go!]

Wasn't their that situation with Montana and Montana State a few years ago?

I dunno if montana got a seed that year or not though, but Montana State got the Autobid with a pretty bad record.

IIRC that was 2005. Griz were at-large and MT St was AQ (6-5 record?). Some Griz brainiac will chime in if I'm wrong.

[GrizBowl]

If I remember corectly, the 2005 season saw Montana, Montana State, and Eastern Washington all sharing the Big Sky Conference Championship. However, it was Eastern Washington that earned the auto bid while Montana scored an at-large bid at home against Cal-Poly, while MSU had to settle for a conference championship ring while they prepared for basketball.

[GrizBowl]

come playoff time, Montana and App State will likely be on opposite ends of the bracket, both with home games. It's hard to imagine that the Griz will magically destroy the season they've had (yes, the season forced on us since NO ONE was willing to play us except App State).

Even if the Griz lost a conference matchup, I would think that the honorable coaches of the FCS would continue to recognize the achievements of the University of Montana's Football Program and realize that (as the forum's name implies) any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday; but Montana historically has performed well.

Although a lot of you decided not to include a second Big Sky Conference team in your playoff forcasts, history disagrees.

I see Montana and Eastern Washington hosting home games this year in the first round

Furthermore, I see Montana playing App State in Chattanooga...

[kalm]

A possible scenario might be the Griz finishing 10-1 or 9-2, the cats 8-3 (with a win over the griz), and EWU 8-3. Which team doesn't make it in that scenario?

(The Jacks could also finish 8-3, but unlikely since they play Montana, @ MSU, and Eastern to finish the season. (But if they were to sweep - look out!)

[kalm]

Furthermore, if the cats were to have one more conference loss, then beat a 9-1 Griz team, and Eastern finishes 8-3, it would be just like 2005 and another 3-way share of the title - except this time no 7-4 team to dump. Interesting...

[McNeese75]

8-3 is going to be a tough sell this year to get in the draw xnodx

[Walkon79]

I think it's still way too early for this, but what the heck...

Auto Qualifiers:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Del. State
OVC - EKU
Patriot - Holy Cross
SoCon - Wofford
Southland - McNeese St.

At Large:
Delaware
Hofstra
James Madison
Southern Ill.
WIU or YSU
Norfolk State
Appalachian State
Nicholls State

Seeds:
#1 UNI
#2 Wofford
#3 Montana
#4 UMass

#1 UNI hosts EKU
WIU or YSU hosts Hofstra

#4 UMass hosts Holy Cross
Delaware hosts Del. State

#3 Montana hosts Nicholls St.
McNeese St. hosts So. Ill.

#2 Wofford hosts Norfolk St.
Appalachian St. hosts JMU

Don't know who the second Big Sky team is yet, but there will be two. Count on it!

[Walkon79]

Furthermore, if the cats were to have one more conference loss, then beat a 9-1 Griz team, and Eastern finishes 8-3, it would be just like 2005 and another 3-way share of the title - except this time no 7-4 team to dump. Interesting...

In that scenario, I could see all three getting in.

[letsgopards04]

I think I would go see that UMASS v Holy Cross game. The schools are not very far apart and I would imagine a good crowd.




I think it's still way too early for this, but what the heck...

Auto Qualifiers:
Big Sky - Montana
Colonial - UMass
Gateway - UNI
MEAC - Del. State
OVC - EKU
Patriot - Holy Cross
SoCon - Wofford
Southland - McNeese St.

At Large:
Delaware
Hofstra
James Madison
Southern Ill.
WIU or YSU
Norfolk State
Appalachian State
Nicholls State

Seeds:
#1 UNI
#2 Wofford
#3 Montana
#4 UMass

#1 UNI hosts EKU
WIU or YSU hosts Hofstra

#4 UMass hosts Holy Cross
Delaware hosts Del. State

#3 Montana hosts Nicholls St.
McNeese St. hosts So. Ill.

#2 Wofford hosts Norfolk St.
Appalachian St. hosts JMU

[Saluki_man]

8-3 is going to be a tough sell this year to get in the draw xnodx

I have to agree with this statement. There are going to be atleast 6 atlarge teams with 2 or less losses. Those teams would be SIU, ASU, Nicholls St, JMU, UD, and Hofstra, with EWU being a possibility with a FBS win. The one that I am least sure about is Hofstra, their schedule is difficult down the stretch.