CAA PLAYOFF PICTURE - WEEK 8

[UMass922]

A breakdown of the CAA teams that, going into the eighth week of the season, still have a chance to finish with the eight D-I wins likely necessary for playoff consideration. (This is strictly an assessment of each team's potential for an at-large berth; obviously one team will claim the conference's automatic bid):

HOFSTRA
6-0 overall
3-0 CAA
6 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
UNH, @NOVA, W&M, @NU, MASS

ASSESSMENT: Obviously in great shape so far. The Pride could lose to UNH and UMass and still likely make the playoffs at 9-2 if they can take care of business against the other three teams (not necessarily a given, though, with two of those games on the road).


JAMES MADISON
6-1 overall (1 FBS loss)
4-0 CAA
6 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
RICH, @DEL, @W&M, TOW

ASSESSMENT: In very good shape. It will be shocking if the Dukes don't reach eight wins, and they should be good enough to finish with at least nine, which they'd accomplish with wins over William & Mary and Towson and a split against Richmond and Delaware. No reason to think they can't do that.


MASSACHUSETTS
5-1 (1 FBS loss)
3-0 CAA
5 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
NU, @W&M, @URI, UNH, @HOF

ASSESSMENT: Very favorable schedule, but only a lock for the playoffs at 9-2. Will have to at least split the two difficult games at the end: 8-3 with two straight losses to close the season will likely not be enough for an at-large.


DELAWARE
6-1 overall (1 D-II win)
4-1 CAA
5 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
@NAVY, JMU, RICH, @NOVA

ASSESSMENT: Because one of the wins is against D-II West Chester, a loss to FBS Navy would leave no margin for error the rest of the way--and against a challenging schedule, too. Having the JMU and Richmond games at home helps.


NEW HAMPSHIRE
4-2 overall (1 FBS win)
1-2 CAA
4 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
@HOF, URI, NU, @MASS, MAINE

ASSESSMENT: With high-quality wins already over Delaware and FBS Marshall, an 8-3 UNH team would be looking very good for an at-large playoff berth. That means if the Wildcats take care of business against three overmatched teams at home, a split on the road against Hofstra and UMass should get them in. Obviously the health of Ricky Santos is a big question mark.


RICHMOND
4-2 overall (1 FBS loss)
2-1 CAA
4 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
URI, @JMU, NOVA, @DEL, W&M

ASSESSMENT: Needs to go 4-1 the rest of the way to get to 8-3. That will require a split at the very least on the road against JMU and Delaware. Not easy.


VILLANOVA
4-3 (1 FBS loss)
2-2 CAA
4 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
HOF, @RICH, @TOW, DEL

ASSESSMENT: Needs to win out--not likely against a difficult remaining schedule, especially without their starting QB. But they could have a chance to play the spoiler against rival Delaware in the last game of the season.


WILLIAM & MARY
4-3 (1 FBS loss)
2-2 CAA
4 D-I wins

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
MASS, @HOF, JMU, @ RICH

ASSESSMENT: Like Villanova, needs to win out--extremely unlikely against a daunting schedule. Also could play the spoiler role down the stretch--especially against in-state rivals James Madison and Richmond.

[th0m]

Good summary. Still a plethora of possibilities.

[KAUMASS]

Nice breakdown. I see Villanova and Northeastern doing some damage in the remaining games. Maine always plays New Hampshire tough, regardless of their record. It is going to go down to the wire unless someone wins out. I think UMass and JMU could potentially win out, but all these games will be tough.
Who gets the auto bid if that happens?
UNH and Hofstra will be interesting as well. Awesome football coming to town in the next 5 weeks.

I do believe if UMass gets on the toilet and drops a couple, with the strength of the CAA, UMass gets in with an at large @ 8-3.

[EmeryZach]

UMass coaches need to get their act together and stop the penalties.

[appfan2008]

great assessment... still lots of possibilities and lots of teams with a shot...

lots of games between teams on this list so anything can still happen

[blur2005]

I really think the CAA could have 5 teams this year. It actually could happen.

[appfan2008]

I really think the CAA could have 5 teams this year. It actually could happen.

i think they will max out at four... only reason they dont get more in is the fact that they still have a lot of games against one another and will beat each other up... too many losses to go around to the teams on that list

[blur2005]

Hofstra
L-UNH, W-@Nova, W-W&M, W-@NU, L-UMass

9-2 (6-2)

JMU
W-Rich, L-@Del, W-@W&M, W-Tow

9-2 (7-1)

UMass
W-NU, W-@W&M, W-@URI, L-UNH, W-@Hof

9-2 (7-1)

Delaware
L-@Navy, W-JMU, W-Rich, W-@Nova

9-2 (7-1)

New Hampshire
W-@Hof, W-URI, W-NU, W-@UMass, W-Maine

9-2 (6-2)



If this happens, there is no way the CAA doesn't get five teams into the playoffs. Five 9-2 teams definitely get in.

[appfan2008]

Hofstra
L-UNH, W-@Nova, W-W&M, W-@NU, L-UMass

9-2 (6-2)

JMU
W-Rich, L-@Del, W-@W&M, W-Tow

9-2 (7-1)

UMass
W-NU, W-@W&M, W-@URI, L-UNH, W-@Hof

9-2 (7-1)

Delaware
L-@Navy, W-JMU, W-Rich, W-@Nova

9-2 (7-1)

New Hampshire
W-@Hof, W-URI, W-NU, W-@UMass, W-Maine

9-2 (6-2)



If this happens, there is no way the CAA doesn't get five teams into the playoffs. Five 9-2 teams definitely get in.

ill agree... but that is a lot of games to go just right... IMO

[blur2005]

ill agree... but that is a lot of games to go just right... IMO
True, but even an 8-3 Delaware probably gets the nod from the committee based on their track record and gets a home game because of the Tub.

[appfan2008]

ok well ill buy all that but if i had to guess i would say you get four...

jmu
hofstra
umass
delaware

[blur2005]

The chances of getting five will be improved if the Big Sky beats up on itself some more and only gets Montana and in the SoCon, only App and Wofford go.

[UNHWildCats]

ok well ill buy all that but if i had to guess i would say you get four...

jmu
hofstra
umass
delaware


Under the scenerio above a 9-2 UNH definatly gets in

[blur2005]

Under the scenerio above a 9-2 UNH definatly gets in
Yeah, five 9-2 teams=five CAA playoff teams. It could definitely happen.

[rufus]

Even if there are five 9-2 teams in the CAA, I can't see the selection committee allowing five teams from the same conference. One of the 9-2 teams would probably be left out to make room for an 8-3 team from another conference. Based on the committee's past treatment of JMU (see #5 ranked team being sent to YSU), I would guess that we would be left out. We need to make it 10-1 to be a lock.

[blur2005]

Even if there are five 9-2 teams in the CAA, I can't see the selection committee allowing five teams from the same conference. One of the 9-2 teams would probably be left out to make room for an 8-3 team from another conference. Based on the committee's past treatment of JMU (see #5 ranked team being sent to YSU), I would guess that we would be left out. We need to make it 10-1 to be a lock.
There's no way a 9-2 JMU team that is 7-1 in conference gets left out. No way. The only teams under my scenario that could even get considered are UNH and Hofstra. And even then, I just can't see a 9-2 CAA team, in the strongest (or second strongest) conference being left out. It'll be interesting.

[rufus]

There's no way a 9-2 JMU team that is 7-1 in conference gets left out. No way. The only teams under my scenario that could even get considered are UNH and Hofstra. And even then, I just can't see a 9-2 CAA team, in the strongest (or second strongest) conference being left out. It'll be interesting.
Well if we did get in with a 9-2 record, you can count on a first round road game at Delaware State or Norfolk State. The selection committee has made it extremely clear that JMU will never play a home playoff game. :)

[blukeys]

Even if there are five 9-2 teams in the CAA, I can't see the selection committee allowing five teams from the same conference. One of the 9-2 teams would probably be left out to make room for an 8-3 team from another conference. Based on the committee's past treatment of JMU (see #5 ranked team being sent to YSU), I would guess that we would be left out. We need to make it 10-1 to be a lock.

You may be correct and perhaps there is an unwritten NCAA rule that the maximum number of playoff teams from one conference is 4. However, in 2003 the Gateway got 4 members in the playoffs and that constituted 50% of the conference. Using the Gateway model the CAA should be able to get 6 teams in the playoffs. xnodx

[blur2005]

You may be correct and perhaps there is an unwritten NCAA rule that the maximum number of playoff teams from one conference is 4. However, in 2003 the Gateway got 4 members in the playoffs and that constituted 50% of the conference. Using the Gateway model the CAA should be able to get 6 teams in the playoffs. xnodx
So if Richmond can pull out 8-3, with the others staying 8-3 or better, perhaps we could have that happen.;)

[blukeys]

So if Richmond can pull out 8-3, with the others staying 8-3 or better, perhaps we could have that happen.;)

I don't know what will happen. I just wanted to point out that 50% of a conference has been selected in the past. I'd love to see what would happen if we got 5 or more teams with 9-2, 8-3 records.

[UMass922]

Hofstra
L-UNH, W-@Nova, W-W&M, W-@NU, L-UMass

9-2 (6-2)

JMU
W-Rich, L-@Del, W-@W&M, W-Tow

9-2 (7-1)

UMass
W-NU, W-@W&M, W-@URI, L-UNH, W-@Hof

9-2 (7-1)

Delaware
L-@Navy, W-JMU, W-Rich, W-@Nova

9-2 (7-1)

New Hampshire
W-@Hof, W-URI, W-NU, W-@UMass, W-Maine

9-2 (6-2)



If this happens, there is no way the CAA doesn't get five teams into the playoffs. Five 9-2 teams definitely get in.

If one of the five had to be left out under this scenario, it would probably be Hofstra, since they'd be the only one to end the season with a loss and wouldn't have the quality wins that the other teams have. But the biggest factor will probably be how things shake out in the other conferences.

[UMass922]

True, but even an 8-3 Delaware probably gets the nod from the committee based on their track record and gets a home game because of the Tub.

I don't know about that--mainly because they would only have seven D-I wins.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

I've had UNH on the hot seat since Richmond gave them their second conference loss. I still say they are under the gun with their remaining schedule. If they go 8-3 as do the Spiders.......tough call on the committee to put both in...especially if Hofstra is sitting there at 9-2, along with UMASS, JMU, Delaware.

OK....too complicated and too much football left...should be interesting....

Go Dukes

[UMass922]

I've had UNH on the hot seat since Richmond gave them their second conference loss. I still say they are under the gun with their remaining schedule. If they go 8-3 as do the Spiders.......tough call on the committee to put both in...especially if Hofstra is sitting there at 9-2, along with UMASS, JMU, Delaware.

OK....too complicated and too much football left...should be interesting....

Go Dukes

I actually think that UNH would have one of the strongest 8-3 resumes in the country if that's how they finish. They've already beaten Marshall and Delaware, and to finish at 8-3 they'd have to have beaten UMass or Hofstra too (possibly both). I would think they'd have to get in over Richmond, and probably most other 8-3 teams around the country.

[Nebuta]

Nice breakdown. I see Villanova and Northeastern doing some damage in the remaining games. Maine always plays New Hampshire tough, regardless of their record. It is going to go down to the wire unless someone wins out. I think UMass and JMU could potentially win out, but all these games will be tough.
Who gets the auto bid if that happens?
UNH and Hofstra will be interesting as well. Awesome football coming to town in the next 5 weeks.

I do believe if UMass gets on the toilet and drops a couple, with the strength of the CAA, UMass gets in with an at large @ 8-3.

I agree Northeastern and Nova (possibility W&M) will play spoiler on one of the playoff contending teams

If UMAss goes 8-3 and with one of those losses to NU, W&M, or URI. I think they might not get an at large bid for those teams have been beaten by other CAA teams in contention.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

I actually think that UNH would have one of the strongest 8-3 resumes in the country if that's how they finish. They've already beaten Marshall and Delaware, and to finish at 8-3 they'd have to have beaten UMass or Hofstra too (possibly both). I would think they'd have to get in over Richmond, and probably most other 8-3 teams around the country.

Good point......

The Hofstra game is this weekend.........crucial game in the playoff scenario.....

[rcny46]

I'm not sure there would be room for a fifth team from the CAA in a 16 team field.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Even if there are five 9-2 teams in the CAA, I can't see the selection committee allowing five teams from the same conference. One of the 9-2 teams would probably be left out to make room for an 8-3 team from another conference. Based on the committee's past treatment of JMU (see #5 ranked team being sent to YSU), I would guess that we would be left out. We need to make it 10-1 to be a lock.


Well if we did get in with a 9-2 record, you can count on a first round road game at Delaware State or Norfolk State. The selection committee has made it extremely clear that JMU will never play a home playoff game. :)

Aren't you just a little paranoid about these road games? It isn't like JMU is the only team that's got an unfair first round match up. Just go back to 2004 and the #5 team (UNH) was once again sent to a seeded team's stadium (Georgia Southern). I don't recall the other examples of these types of match ups, but I know others have posted them.

With Hampton playing W&M, Richmond and UNH the past three years, I'd agree that chances are pretty good that JMU would play Norfolk State. If Delaware State gets a bid and the Hens do as well, I think you can bank on that intra-state game finally happening.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Historically, only a couple of 8-3 CAA/A-10 teams have been excluded from the playoffs. I don't see how any 9-2 CAA team could be excluded. Most likely five teams at 9-2 won't happen so we'll never know.

[HensRock]

I beleive it was 2002 when 8-3 Villanova was snuffed and they were a conference co-champion (4-way tie)

[blur2005]

Historically, only a couple of 8-3 CAA/A-10 teams have been excluded from the playoffs. I don't see how any 9-2 CAA team could be excluded. Most likely five teams at 9-2 won't happen so we'll never know.
Well, there's always been the chance of it in the past - it just never happened. I feel like this year the chance of having five teams that are at least 8-3 is unusually high.

[GannonFan]

I beleive it was 2002 when 8-3 Villanova was snuffed and they were a conference co-champion (4-way tie)

Didn't nova actually lose to a DII team that year (New Haven)? That was a huge determinant in them not getting in, especially compared with the national field.

[TheValleyRaider]

I beleive it was 2002 when 8-3 Villanova was snuffed and they were a conference co-champion (4-way tie)

Had to be 2001. In 2002 Villanova lost to McNeese in the Semifinals.

2001 Villanova did lose to New Haven, which like GF said is probably the big reason they got kept out

[GannonFan]

Hofstra
L-UNH, W-@Nova, W-W&M, W-@NU, L-UMass

9-2 (6-2)

JMU
W-Rich, L-@Del, W-@W&M, W-Tow

9-2 (7-1)

UMass
W-NU, W-@W&M, W-@URI, L-UNH, W-@Hof

9-2 (7-1)

Delaware
L-@Navy, W-JMU, W-Rich, W-@Nova

9-2 (7-1)

New Hampshire
W-@Hof, W-URI, W-NU, W-@UMass, W-Maine

9-2 (6-2)



If this happens, there is no way the CAA doesn't get five teams into the playoffs. Five 9-2 teams definitely get in.

If that happens then yes, the CAA would get 5 teams total in (4 at larges). However, that's the only way and the odds of that turning out as you lay it out are pretty slim. The CAA will get 4 teams in this year, in all likliehood, so one of that 5 won't make it and may not make it at 8-3.

[AZGrizFan]

Hofstra
L-UNH, W-@Nova, W-W&M, W-@NU, L-UMass

9-2 (6-2)

JMU
W-Rich, L-@Del, W-@W&M, W-Tow

9-2 (7-1)

UMass
W-NU, W-@W&M, W-@URI, L-UNH, W-@Hof

9-2 (7-1)

Delaware
L-@Navy, W-JMU, W-Rich, W-@Nova

9-2 (7-1)

New Hampshire
W-@Hof, W-URI, W-NU, W-@UMass, W-Maine

9-2 (6-2)



If this happens, there is no way the CAA doesn't get five teams into the playoffs. Five 9-2 teams definitely get in.

So, you seriously think a 6-0 Hofstra team loses to BOTH UNH AND UMass at HOME? xconfusedx xconfusedx

[ChickenMan]

Didn't nova actually lose to a DII team that year (New Haven)? That was a huge determinant in them not getting in, especially compared with the national field.

It was actually '01 and in addition to an 8-3 Nova getting snubbed.. URI also 8-3.. didn't get a playoff bid. That year the A10 had five teams with 8-3 or better records.. but only three Hofstra.. Maine and W&M got bids.

[HensRock]

So, you seriously think a 6-0 Hofstra team loses to BOTH UNH AND UMass at HOME? xconfusedx xconfusedx

They are 6-0 now, but have not been seriously tested yet. Their 3 conference wins are against arguably the 3 weakest teams in the conference, Maine, Towson, and URI. The Furman win has lost a lot of it's original lustre and wins against Stony Brrok and Albany are nothing to write home about either. I also think Hostra will be a home dog in both of those games.

[AZGrizFan]

They are 6-0 now, but have not been seriously tested yet. Their 3 conference wins are against arguably the 3 weakest teams in the conference, Maine, Towson, and URI. The Furman win has lost a lot of it's original lustre and wins against Stony Brrok and Albany are nothing to write home about either. I also think Hostra will be a home dog in both of those games.

UMass hasn't exactly set the world on fire, either.

[ChickenMan]

UMass hasn't exactly set the world on fire, either.


Now you did it... :p xlolx xnodx

[HensRock]

UMass hasn't exactly set the world on fire, either.

True, except for giving the current #2 team in FBS their closest game of the season.

[andy7171]

If UMass goes into Hofstra unprepared, Hofstra can very easily win that game. Hofstra's defense was very impressive shutting down Towson. Much much better than Richmond. And that little RB they have Huggins, is second only to Cuff in the CAA from what I have seen. Mofo squirts right through the line!

[Umass74]

f UMass goes into Hofstra unprepared, Hofstra can very easily win that game. Hofstra's defense was very impressive shutting down Towson. Much much better than Richmond. And that little RB they have Huggins, is second only to Cuff in the CAA from what I have seen. Mofo squirts right through the line!


That's a risky game for us. I think UMass is something like 1-5 out on the island. We have never played well there. xsmhx

Hofstra has a good chance of winning that game.

[Cincy App]

Five CAA teams in the field will be extremely unlikely - even if five teams finish at 9-2. The CAA will need to hope for a number of one-bid conferences at that stage.

There are 8 at-large bids. The Gateway and SoCon will likely receive at least one at-large each (probably 2 for the Gateway). The Southland and Big Sky will both likely have an at-large. The MEAC will likely have a 2nd team under consideration. Cal Poly is also hanging out there on the radar screen. The OVC and Patriot are unlikely to have at-large teams.

It's fun to make mid-year predictions but much football remains. If five CAA teams finish at 9-2, I would expect Hofstra to be left out since they would have the lightest schedule and no quality wins. Hofstra would be safe at 9-2 with a couple contending CAA teams faltering or chaos in the other auto bid conferences.

[Uncle Buck]

They are 6-0 now, but have not been seriously tested yet. Their 3 conference wins are against arguably the 3 weakest teams in the conference, Maine, Towson, and URI. The Furman win has lost a lot of it's original lustre and wins against Stony Brrok and Albany are nothing to write home about either. I also think Hostra will be a home dog in both of those games.

Like i keep saying, we can only play those teams that are on our schedule and can't control their records. Last week people who picked Towson to win said that we were untested and Towson would be our first test. Now we beat Towson and keep them under 200 yards of offense, but they're not good anymore. Our first test will be UNH now, beat them and people will say well, they have 3 losses, they not a top team.

Who should we beat to prove ourselves as worthy? I have a feeling that even if we go 10-0 then lose to UMass, that's when someone will say told you that Hofstra wasn't that good. xrolleyesx

[Uncle Buck]

That's a risky game for us. I think UMass is something like 1-5 out on the island. We have never played well there. xsmhx

Hofstra has a good chance of winning that game.

We've always matched up pretty well against UNH and UMass and had some great games. Having both of these games at home will be huge for us, we just need to take care of business this week.

[HensRock]

I never said you would lose. Re-read my post. I said you would probably be underdogs in both of those games even at home. Do you disagree with that, Uncle Buck?

[appfan2008]

Hofstra Umass may be the game of the week

[Uncle Buck]

I never said you would lose. Re-read my post. I said you would probably be underdogs in both of those games even at home. Do you disagree with that, Uncle Buck?

I was referring to the comment about being 6-0 and not having played anyone. When we got to 5-0, that was the knock and Towson was supposed to be our test, now at 6-0 we still remain untested and UNH is the test.

As for underdogs, i definitely think we are an underdog at home to UMass, UNH, mmm, i don't know as much. I see it more as a pick'em type of game.

[DTSpider]

Given the history of the CAA (well, actually the A10) I have a tough time believing that there will be 5 teams with 8-3 records, let alone 9-2. There is just too small of a gap between the top & the bottom. There will definitely be more upsets down the line.

[appfan2008]

Given the history of the CAA (well, actually the A10) I have a tough time believing that there will be 5 teams with 8-3 records, let alone 9-2. There is just too small of a gap between the top & the bottom. There will definitely be more upsets down the line.

I agree ... 4 teams in the playoffs... one 8-3 three 9-2

[WSBE]

If UMass goes into Hofstra unprepared, Hofstra can very easily win that game. Hofstra's defense was very impressive shutting down Towson. Much much better than Richmond. And that little RB they have Huggins, is second only to Cuff in the CAA from what I have seen. Mofo squirts right through the line!


uh oh. UNH does not handle those speedy, undersixed RBs well. They break to many long runs. i.e. Eugene Holloman. If Santos isn't 90-100%, I don't think UNH wins

[grayghost06]

Anyone know what the A-10 tie breaker for the title is for two teams that have not played each other but have the same conference record. Do they use record against common opponents. I know it could happen in a couple of scenarios- not likely w/ the competitiveness of the conference- but still possible.

[WildcatFan]

I said you would probably be underdogs in both of those games even at home. Do you disagree with that, Uncle Buck?

I disagree with that - Hofstra plays UNH tough every year and we barely got by them two years ago on Long Island.

I have an idea - let's say they split the games. How about if Hofstra loses this weekend and then picks up a win against that "other" team later in the year - sounds like a good plan to me. xsmiley_wix xsmiley_wix

[FCS Preview]

Anyone know what the A-10 tie breaker for the title is for two teams that have not played each other but have the same conference record. Do they use record against common opponents. I know it could happen in a couple of scenarios- not likely w/ the competitiveness of the conference- but still possible.

From the CAA Media Guide:

The following is the tie-breaker format used to determine the conference’s automatic qualifier for NCAA Championship participation.

4.01 The team with the best conference record based on win-loss percentage shall represent the Conference as the NCAA automatic qualifier.

4.02 In the event of a tie within or outside the division, the following tie-breaker formats will be utilized to determine the Conference automatic qualifier.

4.03 Tie Within Division
1. Head-to-head competition.

2. Division winning percentage.

3. Record versus the highest-placed teams in the division and proceeding down.

4. Record versus the highest-placed common opponents in the opposite division and proceeding down.

5. Should a tie remain, one (l) point will be awarded for a non-conference victory versus a Championship Subdivision opponent from the following conferences: Big Sky, Big South, CAA, Gateway, Ivy, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, and current scholarship independents. Two (2) points will be awarded for a victory versus a Bowl Subdivision opponent. In addition, one (1) point will be deducted for a loss to a Division II or Division III opponent. Points will not be awarded for a victory versus a Division II or III institution, nor will points be deducted for a loss to a Bowl or Championship Subdivision institution. The team with the most points would be declared the automatic qualifier.

6. If the above tie-breakers fail, a conference call with the Directors of Athletics from the institution not involved in the tie will be convened by the Commissioner. The Directors of Athletics, with input from the Head Coaches, would then declare the Conference’s automatic qualifier.

Note: All ties are broken in descending order. When arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

Note: Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts back to the beginning with the remaining tied teams.


4.04. Tie Outside Division
1. Head-to-head competition.

2. Combined record versus all common CAA opponents.

3. Should a tie remain, one (l) point will be awarded for a non-conference victory versus a Championship Subdivision opponent from the following conferences: Big Sky, Big South, CAA, Gateway, Ivy, Mid-Eastern
Athletic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, and current scholarship independents. Two (2) points will be awarded for a victory versus a Bowl Subdivision opponent. In addition, one (1) point will be deducted for a loss to a Division II or Division III opponent. Points will not be awarded for a victory versus a Division II or III institution, nor will points be deducted for a loss to a Bowl or Championship Subdivision institution. The team with the most points would be declared the automatic qualifier.

4. If the above tie-breakers fail, a conference call with the Directors of Athletics from the institutions not involved in the tie will be convened by the Commissioner. The Directors of Athletics, with input from the Head Coaches, would then declare the Conference’s automatic qualifier.

Note: If there are a minimum of three teams involved in a tie, the tie-breaker listed under 4.04 will be used.

Note: All ties are broken in descending order. When arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

Note: Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts back to the beginning with the remaining tied teams. If the remaining teams are all from the same division, then the tie-breaker listed under 4.03 will be used; if not, continue with 4.04.

[HensRock]

I was referring to the comment about being 6-0 and not having played anyone. When we got to 5-0, that was the knock and Towson was supposed to be our test, now at 6-0 we still remain untested and UNH is the test.

As for underdogs, i definitely think we are an underdog at home to UMass, UNH, mmm, i don't know as much. I see it more as a pick'em type of game.

Understood. Sorry, no disrespect intended. For the record, I never personally thought of Towson as a formidable opponent this year.

I'm giving the Pride 3.5 over on the GoHens pool.
I can grab statistics on how many pick each way.

[HensRock]

From the CAA Media Guide:

4.04. Tie Outside Division
1. Head-to-head competition.


I beleive head-to-head is only used if ALL teams involved in the tie have played each other.

Say UMass, UNH, and JMU end up in a 3-way tie. Since JMU did not play UMass, the head-to-head records are not used and you skip to the next step; common CAA opponents (which I beleive would be NU and Maine in this case).

[PurpleandGold]

It is possible given the above CAA tiebreaker rules that the ADs would have to decide between a 10-1 JMU and 10-1 UMASS. It'd be exciting, but even as a Dukes fan, I'd have to give it to UMASS. They're showing at BC was way more impressive than ours at UNC. Not that I'm confident that either can go 10-1 in the CAA. JMU found a way to drop the ball on that one last year at Villanova. (If I'm not mistaken it was literally a dropped ball, i.e. L.C. Baker fumble on a punt return that did us in)

[mcveyrl]

I beleive head-to-head is only used if ALL teams involved in the tie have played each other.

Say UMass, UNH, and JMU end up in a 3-way tie. Since JMU did not play UMass, the head-to-head records are not used and you skip to the next step; common CAA opponents (which I beleive would be NU and Maine in this case).

I think in that scenario, if they were tied and both JMU and UMass had beaten UNH, UNH would drop out.

[Uncle Buck]

...I'm giving the Pride 3.5 over on the GoHens pool.
I can grab statistics on how many pick each way.


I saw that when i started making my picks last night for your pool and laughed since you have the power of the pen. +3.5, it's fair and i'll take it xthumbsupx

[YoUDeeMan]

Historically, only a couple of 8-3 CAA/A-10 teams have been excluded from the playoffs. I don't see how any 9-2 CAA team could be excluded. Most likely five teams at 9-2 won't happen so we'll never know.

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/SPORTS07/710160393/1002/SPORTS

"An 8-3 record often is good enough to make the playoffs. But if the conference is particularly deep and balanced, it may not be.

Villanova found that out in 2001, when it was part of a four-way tie for the league crown but was the lone nonqualifier for the NCAA playoffs at 7-2 in the league and 8-3 overall.

Northeastern (1997), New Hampshire (1996), Connecticut (1995), William & Mary (1994) and Massachusetts (1993) also didn't make it at 8-3."

[Umass74]

An 8-3 record often is good enough to make the playoffs. But if the conference is particularly deep and balanced, it may not be.

Villanova found that out in 2001, when it was part of a four-way tie for the league crown but was the lone nonqualifier for the NCAA playoffs at 7-2 in the league and 8-3 overall.

Northeastern (1997), New Hampshire (1996), Connecticut (1995), William & Mary (1994) and Massachusetts (1993) also didn't make it at 8-3."


The '93 UMass squad was pretty good. We had wins over #7 ranked Delaware and #25 ranked Richmond.

One of our three losses was a 13-17 loss to Maine that the Black Bears later forfeited because of ineligible players. xmadx

[ChickenMan]

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/SPORTS07/710160393/1002/SPORTS

"An 8-3 record often is good enough to make the playoffs. But if the conference is particularly deep and balanced, it may not be.

Villanova found that out in 2001, when it was part of a four-way tie for the league crown but was the lone nonqualifier for the NCAA playoffs at 7-2 in the league and 8-3 overall.

Northeastern (1997), New Hampshire (1996), Connecticut (1995), William & Mary (1994) and Massachusetts (1993) and URI (2001) also didn't make it at 8-3."


added URI to your list of 8-3 CAA teams that didn't make it... they like Nova didn't make it in '01 despite finishing 8-3.

[URMite]

Another summary of what's left and what's needed to be 8-3. (I know 8-3 doesn't guarantee anything) The Ranking are combination of polls, GPI, and head to head, just to give some perspective. Navy is #3 in FCS in Sagarin's.

team losses * schedule
W&M 0 #4UM, @#10HU, #9JMU, @#18UR
VU 0 #10HU, @#18UR, @#42TU, #14UD
UR 1 #55URI, @#9JMU, #30VU, @#14UD, #35W&M
UNH 1 @#10HU, #55URI, #49NU, @#4UM, #54Maine
UD 2 @#(3)USNA, #9JMU, #18UR, @#30VU
JMU 2 #18UR, @#14UD, @#35W&M, #42TU
UM 2 #49NU, @#35W&M, @#55URI, #11UNH, @#10HU
HU 3 #11UNH, @#30VU, #35W&M, @#49NU, #4UM

* additional losses needed to = 3

Ok, so I like cheat sheets!:D

[bluehenbillk]

Another summary of what's left and what's needed to be 8-3. The Ranking are combination of polls, GPI, and head to head, just to give some perspective. Navy is #3 in FCS in Sagarin's.

team losses * schedule
W&M 0 #4UM, @#10HU, #9JMU, @#18UR
VU 0 #10HU, @#18UR, @#42TU, #14UD
UR 1 #55URI, @#9JMU, #30VU, @#14UD, #35W&M
UNH 1 @#10HU, #55URI, #49NU, @#4UM, #54Maine
UD 2 @#(3)USNA, #9JMU, #18UR, @#30VU
JMU 2 #18UR, @#14UD, @#35W&M, #42TU
UM 2 #49NU, @#35W&M, @#55URI, #11UNH, @#10HU
HU 3 #11UNH, @#30VU, #35W&M, @#49NU, #4UM

* additional losses needed to = 3

Ok, so I like cheat sheets!:D

Insanity reaches epic propotions when someone brings the GPI into this. xnonox xnonox

Personal foul - 15 yards!!

[URMite]

Insanity reaches epic propotions when someone brings the GPI into this. xnonox xnonox

Personal foul - 15 yards!!

I was just looking for some numerical rating for teams that weren't receiving votes in any poll...xpeacex

But I knew I shouldn't have mentioned it out loud!xoopsx

[BDKJMU]

People have brought up 7 CAA teams in the last 14 years that didn't make it with 8-3 records. Now those schedules could fall into 4 categories:
1. 10 I-AAs and a Div II
2. 11 I-AAs
3. 9 I-AAs, a Div I-A and a Div II
4. 10 I-AAs and a Div I-A

I would imagine (and I'm not going to spends the time necessary to research this) that the majority of those Yankee/A-10 that didn't make it at 8-3 fell into #1, with maybe a couple at #2 or #3. But I bet none of them were #4. If thats the case, then JMU, UMass, UNH and UR would be locks at 8-3, and UD & Hofstra wouldn't. Its all a moot point though. I remember in 05' it looked like 1/2 way+ through the season there would be 4 A-10 playoff teams. Then JMU (5-1 before finishing 7-4), UMass (6-1 before finishing 7-4), and W&M (5-2 then lost 4 straight) all choked and only UNH and UR (who didn't look like it midway but won their last 7) made it. By the end of this season 2 of the current "Big 6" CAA will have 4 or more losses. Mark my words. xrulesx

WAIT TILL NOVEMBER (Nov 10th- after everyone has played 10 games) THEN CONTINUE THIS DISCUSSION. Right now its retarded to be speculatin CAA playoff picture this early.

[UDBlueLotFan]

BDKJMU, I'm with you. The speculation at this time is mind bogglingxeekx Sometimes I wish we were in the MEAC where we could fine-tune our game throughout the season and be ready for the playoffs everyyearxlolx The CAA is about to get interesting.

[GeeWiz]

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/SPORTS07/710160393/1002/SPORTS

"An 8-3 record often is good enough to make the playoffs. But if the conference is particularly deep and balanced, it may not be.

Villanova found that out in 2001, when it was part of a four-way tie for the league crown but was the lone nonqualifier for the NCAA playoffs at 7-2 in the league and 8-3 overall.

Northeastern (1997), New Hampshire (1996), Connecticut (1995), William & Mary (1994) and Massachusetts (1993) also didn't make it at 8-3."

1997 was really disappointing. That 4th quarter metldown at Villanova still hurts to this day! xnonono2x

[UMass922]

WAIT TILL NOVEMBER (Nov 10th- after everyone has played 10 games) THEN CONTINUE THIS DISCUSSION. Right now its retarded to be speculatin CAA playoff picture this early.

Just taking stock of where each team is right now and what each team has left on the table. I don't see what's "retarded" about that.