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View Full Version : Are Strong FCS Teams as Good as Most FBS Programs?



CaBisonFan
October 7th, 2007, 01:33 PM
Recently, I had an email discussion with a prominent writer connected to the Notre Dame program. It was cordial, but there was a fundamental argument.

I believe that the gap between high-caliber FCS teams and the FBS has gotten smaller. There have been several examples of FBS teams losing to FCS teams as of late...but the App. State win was perhaps the most striking for me. UNI's success in Iowa is right up there also.

Being a North Dakota State fan, I have more knowledge of what the Bison have been experiencing...so I will use these examples. Last year, the 4th year of the ncaa 5-year transitional purgatory, NDSU defeated a good Ball State team on the road. Later that season, Ball State went to Michigan and took them to the wire...a year when the great debate took place over who deserved the championship game bid...Michigan, or Florida. This season, NDSU went to Central Michigan and surprised 'everyone' with a dismantling of CMU. They had returned 15 starters from their MAC championship team from last year, so it was assumed that they would be very tough to beat. After the game, the natural reaction was to think that CMU was actually 'down,' and that the Bison had not actually beaten one of the better MAC teams in 2007. But now, it seems that CMU is doing just fine in the MAC. Perhaps their game with NDSU served as a wakeup call for the team...but what I witnessed, was a CMU team that was overmatched by NDSU, in almost every category. And of course, there's the painful irony from last year, when the Bison completely outplayed Minnesota statistically, only to lose by a point on a blocked field goal at the end. That game is still a sore spot for most Bison fans. In two weeks we get to try it again.

I'm sure that many FCS fans could site their own experiences with their teams either beating, or coming close to defeating an FBS program or two.

Going back to the Irish-friendly reporter...he emphatically denied that upper-level FCS teams could play consistently with medium-level FBS teams. He referred to the Sagarin rankings as his guide-post for his weekly vote, and stated that most of his media friends that are in the voting pool use the Sagarin rankings as the most reliable resource for placing their votes.

To finish that discussion...I asked him to study the latest Sagarin rankings, and to see how many FCS teams are ranked either higher than, or very close to some of the historical big-name programs in the FBS. Of course, I used Notre Dame as the best example...and, of course, I used NDSU's current ranking in the Sagarin. Guess what...as of last week the Bison were approximately 40 positions higher than Notre Dame. Notre Dame, typically, is a lot stronger...but it is striking that they were ranked 95th by Sagarin as of last week. Perhaps the most storied program in the history of college football, with a network TV contract, was ranked below several FCS teams.

But more important that the rankings, is my observation of weekly scores between the two levels, and comparison scores against common opponents. One example that is striking is Ball State's one-point loss 'at' Nebraska...a team that CMU defeated soundly this weekend. For someone like me, that's striking. I always thought that a 'Nebraska' was sooooo far ahead of teams like NDSU.

UNI's dominance of the state of Iowa over the past couple of years is remarkable. Of course, the Notre Dame reporter thought that the results from the past two years didn't mean that UNI was the best team in Iowa. It was just an aberration.

I 'did not' write this article simply to blow NDSU's horn. I merely used examples of our experiences in competition with FBS teams. Am I proud of the Bison as they approach the end of their ncaa probation? Absolutely! I'm actually pretty worked up over the length of the transition, while the Bison are fielding a very competitive team. Frustrated, in that regard, I am. But again, that's not my point. It's an old topic that I need to try to forget about...but it's not easy.

I 'did' write this as a relative newcomer to the FCS scene, wondering if others are witnessing something similar. I'm interested in your stories too...about your teams.

I believe that there are only a handful of elite FBS programs that most FCS teams would be dominated by...and that the difference lies mostly with the elite teams, having a small handful of very, very elite players that most other teams don't have. I believe that the gap between the top 10 FBS teams and the rest of the pack lies within this handful of players. Perhaps a team like LSU has more than a handful.

Other than that...the playing field is remarkably level across the country.

And to place an exclamation point on my point...let me cite the amazing Stanford win over USC last night...a Stanford team that Cal Davis defeated last year.

FCS teams 'always' have to go to the big-boys' house. Thusly, the tip toward FBS teams in the rankings (and outcomes) lies mostly within the home-field advantage, rather than a significant difference in talent. The Notre Dame writer would hear nothing of this, of course.

Outside of the difference in depth, I believe that the FCS is enjoying a caliber of football that is equal to most FBS games.

I'd like to hear your stories. And again, this thread is not intended to begin a discussion about NDSU. I apologize for any Bison smackers that have come here. Most Bison fans realize that there are a ton of outstanding FCS programs...and most Bison fans are just very happy to be a part of the FCS family after years of struggling with the ncaa's abandonment of D2, and its efforts to make the transition as long and as difficult as possible. We have been a frustrated group, but we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel...and it's about time.

Any takers?

If so...let the discussion begin.

(Being pretty new here, I apologize if I'm repeating a thread.)

Mountain Panther
October 7th, 2007, 01:45 PM
The top 5, or maybe even 10, FCS teams could give half of the FBS schools a good game every year.

gophoenix
October 7th, 2007, 01:55 PM
The top 5, or maybe even 10, FCS teams could give half of the FBS schools a good game every year.

I'd say it is more than that. And it really is a day to day thing. Take ECU for exmaple. They matched up well against Va Tech and held to a 17-7 loss. A good game, but then struggles against others. Like any other game, it depends on how well any team matches up against the other.

But, it also depends on the health of the "smaller" team as they won't be near as deep if injuries happen as the bigger teams.

CaBisonFan
October 7th, 2007, 03:39 PM
I'd say it is more than that. And it really is a day to day thing. Take ECU for exmaple. They matched up well against Va Tech and held to a 17-7 loss. A good game, but then struggles against others. Like any other game, it depends on how well any team matches up against the other.

But, it also depends on the health of the "smaller" team as they won't be near as deep if injuries happen as the bigger teams.


I agree with the injuries issue...and the type of matchup. Probably, for me, the fact that almost all of the games are 'away' for the FCS is as big a factor as any...in the long-run. But that's not going to change.

aust42
October 7th, 2007, 05:25 PM
I think the top 10-15 1AA schools are as good as the mid to lower level 1A schools. The ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 10, PAC 10, Big 12 get the cream of the recruits every year and clearly have the best talant. But their beatable too. Ap State over Michigan, NewHampshire over Northwestern, Maine over Mississippi, Villanova over Rutgers, to name a few off the top of my head from the past few years. Then we have the mid to lower 1A conferences. Looking at this year to date, the MAC is 0-2 against 1AA top 15 teams. (3-2 overall). The Sunbelt is 0-1. (The Sunbelt is also ranked below three 1AA conferences per Saragin ratings) The WAC is 9-0 againt 1-AA schools but none of the schools are ranked in the top 15. Conference USA is 0-1 against top 15 1AA teams and 2-2 overall. The Mountain West has not played against any 1AA schools. So to make my point, to date the top 15 1AA teams (as of last weeks rankings) this year are 4-0 against the mid-lower 1A conferences.

Hammerhead
October 7th, 2007, 05:34 PM
10 of the top 100 teams in the current Sagarin ratings are FCS schools with NDSU topping out at #54. If the Bison win at MVSU this week, it will be an interesting re-match between the Bison and Gophers on the 20th.

JayJ79
October 7th, 2007, 05:49 PM
I wouldn't go so far as saying that strong FCS teams are as good as MOST FBS programs. Those 22 extra scholarships are a sizable benefit.

But I think it is fair to say that the gap between FCS and FBS has shrunk a bit.

PaladinFan
October 7th, 2007, 06:24 PM
No. One game, sure, anyone can beat anyone. Over a season? Not a snowball's chance.

I kinda quit aruging this point a while ago. The top of the FCS could be fairly competitive in the MAC, WAC, MWC, and Sunbelt. Outside of that we wouldn't stand much of a chance on a week in week out basis.

Every so often we will steal one. Even more rare one the FCS team dominates their opponent (a la UNH/Northwestern last year, Furman v UNC in 2001). For each of those, there is one we completly overlook as FCS fans. We trumpet the big win and just write off the big loss.

Take App for instance. Big big win this year v. Michigan. However, in 2006 they lost to a lowly NCState team (who this year is 1-5 with their only win over our top 5 or so Wofford), and lost in 2005 to a pretty bad Kansas team by 30-something. They won national championships both years.

nb. I pick on App just because I don't like them :)

nwFL Griz
October 7th, 2007, 07:53 PM
No. One game, sure, anyone can beat anyone. Over a season? Not a snowball's chance.

I kinda quit aruging this point a while ago. The top of the FCS could be fairly competitive in the MAC, WAC, MWC, and Sunbelt. Outside of that we wouldn't stand much of a chance on a week in week out basis.

Every so often we will steal one. Even more rare one the FCS team dominates their opponent (a la UNH/Northwestern last year, Furman v UNC in 2001). For each of those, there is one we completly overlook as FCS fans. We trumpet the big win and just write off the big loss.

Take App for instance. Big big win this year v. Michigan. However, in 2006 they lost to a lowly NCState team (who this year is 1-5 with their only win over our top 5 or so Wofford), and lost in 2005 to a pretty bad Kansas team by 30-something. They won national championships both years.

nb. I pick on App just because I don't like them :)

I'll agree to most of that. Except for the bit about being fairly competitive in the listed conferences, WAC...no, MWC...no, MAC....maybe, Sun Belt...yes.

There might be a couple of games that top FCS teams could win year-in and year-out. But they could not compete over a full season of those games. Even UNI's so called dominance of the state of Iowa is questionable....they are 1-4 against Iowa and Iowa St since 2002, I hardly call that dominance.

So while this year has been fun watching the FCS guys win a few against the big boys, I wouldn't call it a trend. Heck, I would be willing to bet if that Michigan-App St game was played 100 times, that would be the only time App St won (in Ann Arbor.)

skinny_uncle
October 7th, 2007, 08:44 PM
You can only put eleven guys on the field at a time. That helps negate the extra scholarships. Sometimes the FCS teams are better coached. That could help explain why both SIU and UNH have beaten FBS teams two years in a row. Once you have won one of these games, you have it in your head that you can compete. I think it makes a difference.

BigApp
October 8th, 2007, 01:29 AM
Take App for instance...lost in 2005 to a pretty bad Kansas team by 30-something. They won national championships both years.



that 'pretty bad Kansas team' beat Nebraska and Missouri, then won it's bowl game.

Awful.

xcoffeex

JohnStOnge
October 8th, 2007, 10:52 AM
I think there is always overlap such that the best FCS team is better than some FBS teams. Sometimes I think the best FCS team is better than the "average" (or median, App guy) FBS and sometimes not. Marshall in 1996 and Delaware in 2003 were, I think, teams clearly better than the "average" FBS.

I'd say the "average" I-AA/FCS playoff team has been comparable to the "average" non BCS I-A FBS...at least on a "one game" basis. Here are some "inter-level" results suggesting that (1998...when the BCS started...through 2006):

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs. all I-A/FBS: 32 - 83 (0.278); average score I-AA/FCS 20, IA/FBS 33, .

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs. non BCS: 24 - 33 (0.421); average score 23 - 30.

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs. BCS: 8 - 50 (0.137); average score 16 - 37.

A breakdown by I-A/FBS conferences kind of gives an idea off where I-AA/FCS teams have fallen, on average, as compared to the I-A/FBS world (average score in parenthesis) is below.

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs.:

Sun Belt 12 - 3; average score 31 - 25
MAC 8 - 12; average score 22 - 28
CUSA 2 - 4; average score 20 - 31
Big East 2 - 4; average score 23 - 30
ACC 3 - 8; average score 18 - 35
Independent 1 - 3, average score 24 - 29
Big 10 2 - 7, average score 18 - 36
WAC 1 - 4, average score 25 - 38
Big 12 1 - 17, average score 13 - 39
Pac 10 0 - 5, average score 21 - 44
SEC 0 -9, average score 11 - 37
MWC 0 - 7, average score 11 - 38

Given that the I-AA/FCS teams always played on the road with the exception of Idaho playing at Montana when the Vandals were in the Sun Belt, I'd put the "average" strength of I-AA/FCS playoff teams at about the MAC level. I think power ratings usually lead to the same conclusion.

In my opinion, based on stuff I've done in the past, the effect of the home field advantage is that if evenly matched teams played a large number of games the home teams would win about 45 percent of the time. That would lead me to expect that (for example) if non BCS I-As and I-AA/FCS teams were, on average, evenly matched, I-AA/FCS teams would be expected to win somewhere between 18 and 33 of the 57 matchups (a little off because that's assuming ALL road games for I-AA/FCS and that's not QUITE true). So I look at the results of the series (24 -33) as being consistent with the two groups being comparable in terms of "average" caliber.

JDC325
October 8th, 2007, 10:57 AM
I think there is always overlap such that the best FCS team is better than some FBS teams. Sometimes I think the best FCS team is better than the "average" (or median, App guy) FBS and sometimes not. Marshall in 1996 and Delaware in 2003 were, I think, teams clearly better than the "average" FBS.

I'd say the "average" I-AA/FCS playoff team has been comparable to the "average" non BCS I-A FBS...at least on a "one game" basis. Here are some "inter-level" results suggesting that (1998...when the BCS started...through 2006):

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs. all I-A/FBS: 32 - 83 (0.278); average score I-AA/FCS 20, IA/FBS 33, .

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs. non BCS: 24 - 33 (0.421); average score 23 - 30.

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs. BCS: 8 - 50 (0.137); average score 16 - 37.

A breakdown by I-A/FBS conferences kind of gives an idea off where I-AA/FCS teams have fallen, on average, as compared to the I-A/FBS world (average score in parenthesis) is below.

I-AA/FCS playoff teams vs.:

Sun Belt 12 - 3; average score 31 - 25
MAC 8 - 12; average score 22 - 28
CUSA 2 - 4; average score 20 - 31
Big East 2 - 4; average score 23 - 30
ACC 3 - 8; average score 18 - 35
Independent 1 - 3, average score 24 - 29
Big 10 2 - 7, average score 18 - 36
WAC 1 - 4, average score 25 - 38
Big 12 1 - 17, average score 13 - 39
Pac 10 0 - 5, average score 21 - 44
SEC 0 -9, average score 11 - 37
MWC 0 - 7, average score 11 - 38

Given that the I-AA/FCS teams always played on the road with the exception of Idaho playing at Montana when the Vandals were in the Sun Belt, I'd put the "average" strength of I-AA/FCS playoff teams at about the MAC level. I think power ratings usually lead to the same conclusion.


Best break down I have ever seen on this board...great job. xbowx xsmileyclapx

JohnStOnge
October 8th, 2007, 11:05 AM
CaBisonFan, if you should decide to use the numbers I posted in your correpsondence with this guy, tell him that the person who posted them maintains a database of "inter-level" results because I write a feature article on that each year for the I-AA/FCS preview magazine (used to be I-AA.org, I guess it's CSN now?). Anyway, that's why I always have this stuff at my fingertips.

Another interesting thing is that the results suggest that the difference between FCS and non BCS/FBS is comparable to the difference between non BCS/FBS and BCS/FBS. What you really have, I think, is three distinct levels of D-I football with overlap between the groups.

nwFL Griz
October 8th, 2007, 02:40 PM
CaBisonFan, if you should decide to use the numbers I posted in your correpsondence with this guy, tell him that the person who posted them maintains a database of "inter-level" results because I write a feature article on that each year for the I-AA/FCS preview magazine (used to be I-AA.org, I guess it's CSN now?). Anyway, that's why I always have this stuff at my fingertips.

Another interesting thing is that the results suggest that the difference between FCS and non BCS/FBS is comparable to the difference between non BCS/FBS and BCS/FBS. What you really have, I think, is three distinct levels of D-I football with overlap between the groups.

I would agree with that statement. You might have one or two out of non-BCS conferences that might compete in any given year with the BCS schools (Boise St last year, TCU in 2005, Utah in 2004, etc), but overall it is not really that competitive.

JMU_Fan_2007
October 8th, 2007, 04:22 PM
I think the Sagarin rankings are very accurate. The best FCS team will usually end up between 30 and 50 in the rankings, which seems about right to me.

Grizaholic17
October 8th, 2007, 05:37 PM
10 of the top 100 teams in the current Sagarin ratings are FCS schools with NDSU topping out at #54. If the Bison win at MVSU this week, it will be an interesting re-match between the Bison and Gophers on the 20th.

It won't be that interesting...minnesota sucks majorly this year.