This year's "woffed" award candidates?

[URMite]

I know it's early, but I still think 5 8-3 or better teams out of the CAA is a distinct possibility. But I don't see 5 CAA teams in the playoffs.

Can anybody else see a scenario developing where a strong 8-3 team will be left out? I do expect there to be some good 7-4 teams, but that is typical.

A summary of the CAA:

HU - no losses and 2 home games vs ranked teams
UD - no losses and a FBS game, 2 home, 1 away vs ranked teams
UM - 1 loss and 1 home, 1 away vs ranked teams
JMU - 1 loss and 1 home, 1 away vs ranked teams
UR - 1 loss and 2 away games vs ranked teams
UNH - 2 losses and 1 home, 2 away vs ranked teams

I'm just worried that it may be 2 10-1s, 2 9-2s 1 7-4 and an 8-3 UR. Which may leave us out of the playoffs, and also leaves us most vulnerable to a non-ranked loss (most of the other teams can survive one).

[Khan4Cats]

I would agree with you that 5 CAA teams will not make the playoffs, even if they are 8-3. The committee set a precedent last year about balancing conference at-larges. No conference will have a disproportionate number of at-larges compared to other AQ conferences.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

It is early, but I do think there are going to be some dissappointed 8-3 teams this year. Here are the number of 8+ teams, by conference...

CAA - 4, maybe even 5
Socon - 3, maybe even 4 (wishful thinking on my part, but 4 is possible)
Gateway - 3, maybe even 4
SLC - at least 2
Big Sky - at least 2
MEAC - at least 2

By a conservative estimate, that means 16 8+ win teams from these conferences alone. Remembering that one team from each of these conferences will get an autobid, that is 11 8+ win teams that will want an AL bid, and only 8 slots for AL bids. I think this will be a year where we wished we had the 18-team format.

One thing for sure is, I think we are in for one epic post-season race for the national championship - it'll be even more exciting than '05 I think.

Whoever wins the NC this year should engrave "we won the national championship on a year where multiple 8-3 teams from conferences other than the OVC and Patriot League got Woofed. We rock."

[USDFAN_55]

Hey don't forget us, the San Diego fans that will be complaining come selection time and the Toreros are undefeated.xthumbsupx xsmiley_wix xnodx

[UNHWildCats]

What happens in this scenerio

Massachusetts 8-3 (6-2) L @ BC, vs UNH, @ Hofstra
James Madison 8-3 (6-2) L @ North Carolina, vs Richmond, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 8-3 (5-3) L @ JMU, @ Richmond, @ Hofstra
Richmond 8-3 (6-2) L @ Vanderbilt, @ Delaware, vs W&M
Hofstra 8-3 (5-3) L @ Villanova, vs Towson, W&M
Delaware 8-3 (6-2) L @ UNH, @ Navy, @ Villanova

Who gets in who doesnt?

[andy7171]

What happens in this scenerio

Massachusetts 9-3 (6-2) L @ BC, vs UNH, @ Hofstra
James Madison 9-3 (6-2) L @ North Carolina, vs Richmond, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 9-3 (5-3) L @ JMU, @ Richmond, @ Hofstra
Richmond 9-3 (6-2) L @ Vanderbilt, @ Delaware, vs W&M
Hofstra 9-3 (5-3) L @ Villanova, vs Towson, W&M
Delaware 9-3 (6-2) L @ UNH, @ Navy, @ Villanova

Who gets in who doesnt?
Since when do do we play 12 games? :p

Of that group, if I leave one out, its Hofstra. The Furman win doesn't look as strong as it did a couple weeks ago.

[UNHWildCats]

Since when do do we play 12 games? :p

Of that group, if I leave one out, its Hofstra. The Furman win doesn't look as strong as it did a couple weeks ago.


Whoops ok those should be 8-3's lemme fix em :p

[mcveyrl]

What happens in this scenerio

Massachusetts 9-3 (6-2) L @ BC, vs UNH, @ Hofstra
James Madison 9-3 (6-2) L @ North Carolina, vs Richmond, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 9-3 (5-3) L @ JMU, @ Richmond, @ Hofstra
Richmond 9-3 (6-2) L @ Vanderbilt, @ Delaware, vs W&M
Hofstra 9-3 (5-3) L @ Villanova, vs Towson, W&M
Delaware 9-3 (6-2) L @ UNH, @ Navy, @ Villanova

Who gets in who doesnt?

Who would be the AQ in that scenario?

[BlueHen86]

What happens in this scenerio

Massachusetts 9-3 (6-2) L @ BC, vs UNH, @ Hofstra
James Madison 9-3 (6-2) L @ North Carolina, vs Richmond, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 9-3 (5-3) L @ JMU, @ Richmond, @ Hofstra
Richmond 9-3 (6-2) L @ Vanderbilt, @ Delaware, vs W&M
Hofstra 9-3 (5-3) L @ Villanova, vs Towson, W&M
Delaware 9-3 (6-2) L @ UNH, @ Navy, @ Villanova

Who gets in who doesnt?

My guess is that in your scenario UNH and Hofstra are out based on 5 - 3 in conference as opposed to everyone else listed at 6 - 2.
UMass - in, may get AQ
Del - in, may get AQ
Rich - in as third team
JMU - better hope that CAA gets 4 teams or they are out based on losses to Richmond and Delaware.xtwocentsx

[89Hen]

The committee set a precedent last year about balancing conference at-larges. No conference will have a disproportionate number of at-larges compared to other AQ conferences.
I don't agree with either statement there. The field is different every year. I remember just a few years ago everyone saying there was no way a conference gets four teams in, but it's happened twice, with two different conferences. A lot depends on what happens to the second, third and fourth place teams in a lot of confernces.

[BlueHen86]

Who would be the AQ in that scenario?
Good question. You would have a 4 way tie with Delaware beating 2 of the teams. My guess is Delaware, based on that fact. I don't know the tie breaker, so it could also be UMass. I don't think it would be JMU or Richmond because they would have losses to Del.

[89Hen]

What happens in this scenerio

Massachusetts 8-3 (6-2) L @ BC, vs UNH, @ Hofstra
James Madison 8-3 (6-2) L @ North Carolina, vs Richmond, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 8-3 (5-3) L @ JMU, @ Richmond, @ Hofstra
Richmond 8-3 (6-2) L @ Vanderbilt, @ Delaware, vs W&M
Hofstra 8-3 (5-3) L @ Villanova, vs Towson, W&M
Delaware 8-3 (6-2) L @ UNH, @ Navy, @ Villanova

Who gets in who doesnt?
The universe collapses and the Pioneer gets three teams in. That's a lot of what if's... only a couple of those have actually happened... I think it may be wishful thinking on your part right now. xsmiley_wix

[UNHWildCats]

ya, but its possible.

[putter]

If The Citadel keeps playing like they have they could have something to say about this as well.

[AZGrizFan]

Hey don't forget us, the San Diego fans that will be complaining come selection time and the Toreros are undefeated.xthumbsupx xsmiley_wix xnodx

Oh, don't worry...we won't forget you....you won't LET us. xcoolx xcoolx xcoolx xcoolx ;)

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

First off - no way does Hofstra lose to W&M, Villanova, and Towson. I just don't see it happening, although slightly possible.

Really, Hofstra has the easier schedule, is undefeated right now, and on cruise control. I doubt they don't make the playoffs, although a better CAA team may get left out, again due to scheduling. Most likely candidate for that "honor" - UNH. They already lost to UR and JMU. I would put a lot of money down that they will drop the game vs. Delaware as well.

I think UMass and Hofstra from the North will get in. Then it comes down to UR, JMU, and UD. Tough to tell.

UR and JMU played an extra Div I game. UD played DII West Chester. Not a huge deal, but it is worth consideration. Delaware and JMU both are looking unstoppable. Both have had favorable schedules thus far. It a long road yet to the playoffs, but I think four CAA teams will be worthy. Richmond's D is young this year, I think they are most likely of the three to falter. They are also very dangerous though and will be worthy of a playoff berth at 8-3.

The CAA is 19-2 in OOC FCS games. That is more than enough to support the selection of four worthy teams. One or two will have a rough Thanksgiving weekend.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Another thing about the entire country - I think we will see all at-large bids, except maybe one, coming from the CAA, SoCon, Gateway and Big Sky. SLC might get McNeese and SHSU or Nichols St. depending on AQ, etc.

Still way too early, but the big conferences look to have the most qualified teams, more so than usual.

[mcveyrl]

Good question. You would have a 4 way tie with Delaware beating 2 of the teams. My guess is Delaware, based on that fact. I don't know the tie breaker, so it could also be UMass. I don't think it would be JMU or Richmond because they would have losses to Del.

I wonder if you look within division and then compare the two.

For instance, Delaware would definitely win the South with wins over both Richmond and JMU.

But that also means that Hofstra wins the North with wins over UMass and UNH.

Would you compare common opponents of Delaware and Hofstra?? That probably yields a tie.

I'm not sure how that would work.

[walliver]

We start every season expecting to be woofed. Hopefully, we can win out and make it in as AQ.

The SoCon may only get two in the playoffs (if we beat each other up), but may get 4. The Big South probably won't get a bid. If we only get two, this will probably open up another spot for the MEAC or CAA.

Of interest to me, if Wofford and ASU both win out, which team would be seeded (The Terriers would win the AQ, but Appy would probably be ranked higher (and they won some non-FCS game))?

[rcny46]

I know it's early, but I still think 5 8-3 or better teams out of the CAA is a distinct possibility. But I don't see 5 CAA teams in the playoffs.

Can anybody else see a scenario developing where a strong 8-3 team will be left out? I do expect there to be some good 7-4 teams, but that is typical.

A summary of the CAA:

HU - no losses and 2 home games vs ranked teams
UD - no losses and a FBS game, 2 home, 1 away vs ranked teams
UM - 1 loss and 1 home, 1 away vs ranked teams
JMU - 1 loss and 1 home, 1 away vs ranked teams
UR - 1 loss and 2 away games vs ranked teams
UNH - 2 losses and 1 home, 2 away vs ranked teams

I'm just worried that it may be 2 10-1s, 2 9-2s 1 7-4 and an 8-3 UR. Which may leave us out of the playoffs, and also leaves us most vulnerable to a non-ranked loss (most of the other teams can survive one).

UNH for one.xbawlingx

[BlueHen86]

I wonder if you look within division and then compare the two.

For instance, Delaware would definitely win the South with wins over both Richmond and JMU.

But that also means that Hofstra wins the North with wins over UMass and UNH.

Would you compare common opponents of Delaware and Hofstra?? That probably yields a tie.

I'm not sure how that would work.
In UNHWildCats scenario Hofstra is 5 - 3, they are out. It comes down to UD and UMass.
If Hofstra ends up 6 - 2 they win the north, UD the south. I don't how how a conference champ is picked.

[UNHWildCats]

OK I believe the first tie breaker for more then two teams is combined record of common opponents, assuming the finish I outlined earlier JMU wins the AQ by going 6-0 vs W&M, Towson, Villanova, UNH, Northeastern and Rhode Island, the 6 teams each of the 4 teams at 6-2 play.

Massachusetts would be 5-1, as would Richmond and Delaware 4-2.

[mcveyrl]

In UNHWildCats scenario Hofstra is 5 - 3, they are out. It comes down to UD and UMass.
If Hofstra ends up 6 - 2 they win the north, UD the south. I don't how how a conference champ is picked.


OK I believe the first tie breaker for more then two teams is combined record of common opponents, assuming the finish I outlined earlier JMU wins the AQ by going 6-0 vs W&M, Towson, Villanova, UNH, Northeastern and Rhode Island, the 6 teams each of the 4 teams at 6-2 play.

Massachusetts would be 5-1, as would Richmond and Delaware 4-2.

Good catch 86, I had missed that.

I hope UNH is right, 'cause I sure as heck don't wanna get caught up in THAT mess.

[BlueHen86]

OK I believe the first tie breaker for more then two teams is combined record of common opponents, assuming the finish I outlined earlier JMU wins the AQ by going 6-0 vs W&M, Towson, Villanova, UNH, Northeastern and Rhode Island, the 6 teams each of the 4 teams at 6-2 play.

Massachusetts would be 5-1, as would Richmond and Delaware 4-2.
I don't think that's right. UMass wins the north division., UD the south division. The question is how to pick between the two.

[mcveyrl]

You would think the CAA would post this somewhere, but I've searched and can't find it.

[UNHWildCats]

I don't think that's right. UMass wins the north division., UD the south division. The question is how to pick between the two.

If they use the top team from each divison, breaking the tie in the south first its still JMU cause the 3 way tie is broke by combined common opponents where JMU is 6-0. Then with 2 teams UMass and JMU first tiebreaker is head to head they didnt play so again its common opponents, which again JMU wins 6-0 to 5-1.

[mcveyrl]

If they use the top team from each divison, breaking the tie in the south first its still JMU cause the 3 way tie is broke by combined common opponents where JMU is 6-0. Then with 2 teams UMass and JMU first tiebreaker is head to head they didnt play so again its common opponents, which again JMU wins 6-0 to 5-1.

Unless the tiebreaker looks at the record between the three teams tied in the South.

Then it's

UD 2-0
UR 1-1
JMU 0-2xbawlingx xbawlingx

[89Hen]

IIRC, the CAA tiebreaker is

1. Head to head
2. Comparing common opponents starting with the highest place team.

[BlueHen86]

If they use the top team from each divison, breaking the tie in the south first its still JMU cause the 3 way tie is broke by combined common opponents where JMU is 6-0. Then with 2 teams UMass and JMU first tiebreaker is head to head they didnt play so again its common opponents, which again JMU wins 6-0 to 5-1.
You have UD beating both JMU and Richmond in the south. That is your tie breaker.

[BlueHen86]

IIRC, the CAA tiebreaker is

1. Head to head
2. Comparing common opponents starting with the highest place team.
Unfortunately, in UNHWildCats scenario, UD and UMass would still be tied.

[UNHWildCats]

Unfortunately, in UNHWildCats scenario, UD and UMass would still be tied.


UMAss beats Del on common opponents.

Umass 5-1, Delaware 4-2

[tralfangar]

We start every season expecting to be woofed. Hopefully, we can win out and make it in as AQ.

The SoCon may only get two in the playoffs (if we beat each other up), but may get 4. The Big South probably won't get a bid. If we only get two, this will probably open up another spot for the MEAC or CAA.

Of interest to me, if Wofford and ASU both win out, which team would be seeded (The Terriers would win the AQ, but Appy would probably be ranked higher (and they won some non-FCS game))?

Wofford probably should get it in all honesty. Either way, the season is a long way from over and I don't feel completely comfortable saying that App will win out.

[URMite]

What happens in this scenerio

Massachusetts 9-2 (7-1) L @ BC, vs UNH
James Madison 9-2 (7-1) L @ North Carolina, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 9-2 (6-2) L @ JMU, @ Richmond
Richmond 9-2 (7-1) L @ Vanderbilt, @ JMU
Hofstra 9-2 (6-2) L vs Umass, vs UNH
Delaware 9-2 (6-2) L @ UNH, vs Richmond

Who gets in who doesnt?

Try that! No unranked winners and only a few away winners. Then what???xoopsx

[89Hen]

Unfortunately, in UNHWildCats scenario, UD and UMass would still be tied.
I found the old A10 tie-breakers....

TIE WITHIN DIVISION
1. Head-to-head competition.

2. Division winning percentage.

3. Record versus the highest-placed teams in the division and
proceeding down.

4. Record versus the highest-placed common opponents in the opposite
division and proceeding down.

5. Should a tie remain, one (1) point will be awarded for a victory versus
a I-AA opponent from the following conferences: Big Sky, Big
South, Gateway, Ivy, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Ohio Valley, Patriot,
Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, and current independents;
one-half (0.5) point will be awarded for a victory versus a I-AA opponent
from the following conferences: Metro Atlantic, Northeast, and
Pioneer; and two (2) points will be awarded for a victory versus a I-A
opponent. In addition, one (1) point will be deducted for a loss to a
Division II or Division lII opponent. Points will not be awarded for a
victory versus a Division II or III institution, nor will points be deducted
for a loss to a Division I-A or I-AA institution. The team with the
most points would be declared the automatic qualifier.

6. If the above tie-breakers fail, a conference call with the directors of
athletics from the institutions not involved in the tie will be convened by
the Commissioner. The directors of athletics, with input from the head
coaches, would then declare the Conference's automatic qualifier.

Note: All ties are broken in descending order. When arriving at another
set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record
against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

Note: Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts
back to the beginning with the remaining tied teams.

Note: Only Conference games will be considered when applying the
above provisions.

[89Hen]

TIE OUTSIDE DIVISION

1. Head-to-head competition.

2. Combined winning percentage versus all common Atlantic 10
opponents.

3. Should a tie remain, one (1) point will be awarded for a victory versus
a I-AA opponent from the following conferences: Big Sky, Big
South, Gateway, Ivy, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Ohio Valley, Patriot,
Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, and current independents;
one-half (0.5) point will be awarded for a victory versus a I-AA opponent
from the following conferences: Metro Atlantic, Northeast, and
Pioneer; and two (2) points will be awarded for a victory versus a I-A
opponent. In addition, one (1) point will be deducted for a loss to a
Division II or Division lII opponent. Points will not be awarded for a
victory versus a Division II or III institution, nor will points be deducted
for a loss to a Division I-A or I-AA institution. The team with the
most points would be declared the automatic qualifier.

4. If the above tie-breakers fail, a conference call with the directors of
athletics from the institutions not involved in the tie will be convened by
the Commissioner. The directors of athletics, with input from the head
coaches, would then declare the Conference's automatic qualifier.

Note: If there are a minimum of three teams involved in a tie, the outside
division tie-breaker will be used.

Note: All ties are broken in descending order. When arriving at another
set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record
against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

Note: Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts
back to the beginning with the remaining tied teams. If the remaining
teams are all from the same division, then the tie within division tiebreaker
will be used; if not, continue with above.

Note: Only Conference games will be considered when applying the
above provisions.

[UNHWildCats]

Try that! No unranked winners and only a few away winners. Then what???xoopsx


If 6 CAA teams go 9-2 theres gonna be a lot of pissed off fans from other conference cause I dont see how you can pass up a 9-2 team... atleast at 8-3 there probably other 8-3 teams.

18 spots... 8 AQ??? That would mean between the 8 AQ and the other 5 CAA teams theres 13 of the 16 spots. Southern takes a second and the Gateway gets the other two.

[URMite]

The more I look at my latest scenario, Hofstra is 9-2, but with no FBS game, and 2 home losses, and is effectively 6th in the CAA.

My head hurts!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

A 9-2 Lehigh or Lafayette could be left out despite having wins over good teams.

[BlueHen86]

UMAss beats Del on common opponents.

Umass 5-1, Delaware 4-2
You are correct. I didn't notice that UMass has to play Villanova. I had them both at 4 - 1 vs common opponents.

[R.A.]

A 9-2 Lehigh or Lafayette could be left out despite having wins over good teams.

If Hampton beats Princeton, it could be a problem for Lafayette...

[TexasTerror]

Mark it down -- SLC only gets the AQ unless McNeese does not win the SLC yet gets enough wins to qualify.

I've got a whole thread on it...

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30140

[lizrdgizrd]

We start every season expecting to be woofed. Hopefully, we can win out and make it in as AQ.

The SoCon may only get two in the playoffs (if we beat each other up), but may get 4. The Big South probably won't get a bid. If we only get two, this will probably open up another spot for the MEAC or CAA.

Of interest to me, if Wofford and ASU both win out, which team would be seeded (The Terriers would win the AQ, but Appy would probably be ranked higher (and they won some non-FCS game))?
I think the only reason Wofford wouldn't get the seed (if we both win out) would be if the NCAA wanted the $$$ that App would generate with home games. xnodx

[AggieFinn]

Hey don't forget us, the San Diego fans that will be complaining come selection time and the Toreros are undefeated.xthumbsupx xsmiley_wix xnodx

ahem...

[USDFAN_55]

ahem...

I'm sorry.... did you have something stuck in your throatxsmiley_wix

[AggieFinn]

I'm sorry.... did you have something stuck in your throatxsmiley_wix

Yeah, it was a piece of Torero meat! xlolx

Tastes creamy, a little puffy too. xlolx

http://greggman.com/japan/yo-desserts/cream-puff.jpg

[USDFAN_55]

Yeah, it was a piece of Torero meat! xlolx

Tastes creamy, a little puffy too. xlolx

http://greggman.com/japan/yo-desserts/cream-puff.jpg

You know.... I could really hammer you for that comment (just read what you said and see how that can be spun right back at you.... you set yourself up), but since this isn't a smack thread I will refrainxcoffeex

[UNHWildCats]

The universe collapses and the Pioneer gets three teams in. That's a lot of what if's... only a couple of those have actually happened... I think it may be wishful thinking on your part right now. xsmiley_wix

Massachusetts 8-3 (6-2) L @ BC, vs UNH, @ Hofstra
James Madison 8-3 (6-2) L @ North Carolina, vs Richmond, @ Delaware
New Hampshire 8-3 (5-3) L @ JMU, @ Richmond, @ Hofstra
Richmond 8-3 (6-2) L @ Vanderbilt, @ Delaware, vs W&M, @ Towson (added bonus)
Hofstra 8-3 (5-3) L @ Villanova, vs Towson, W&M
Delaware 8-3 (6-2) L @ UNH, @ Navy, @ Villanova