Hot vs. Hot When Nova Visits JMU

[BDKJMU]

http://www.dnronline.com/sports_details.php?AID=12409&CHID=3

[ngineer]

This should be one of the top games this week. 'nova has some weapons and should make this interesting. IMO a 'nova win would not shock me, though JMU should be favored by a little.

[BDKJMU]

Villanova returns starters from last years 6-5 team. Considering that they started out last year 2-5, before winning their last 4 games, including a huge upset win over JMU, they’re 7-1 in their last 8 games, the only loss being 31-14 to Maryland team that is better than UNC. After their opening loss to the Terps, Nova knocked off perennial Patriot league powerhouse Lehigh 30-20 @ Lehigh, Maine @ home 17-10 in OT, then Penn last week 34-14, also at home. The CAA media guide lists them as returning 5 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters from last year.

JMU on offense vs Nova on defense:

JMU averaging:
36 points per game
241 rushing
172 passing
(413 total offense)

Nova Giving up:
20.5 points per game
136 yards rushing per game
206 yards passing per game
(342 total offense)

Didn’t have a single player picked to be on the CAA preseason team on either side of the ball. Their featured defensive player is defensive tackle David Dalessandro, listed at 6’3”, 275. Going up against a decent, avg, maybe above avg defense, and despite being again without Holloman, I look for JMU to still be able to rush the ball effectively with Landers & the Bolton/Sullivan/Noble running back by committe, along with maybe a couple of plays for LC. Landers is completing 67% of his passes, so I look for JMU to be effective in this area, too, and come out with a couple of big plays. I have consulted my crystal ball, and here are my predictions:

Rushing:
1. 225 (+-25 yards)
2. 2 rushing TDs
3. Rodney gets a rushing TD

Passing:
4. 175 (+-25 yards)
5. 2 passing TDs

6. 400 (+-25 yards) total offense

Nova offense vs JMU defense:
Nova averaging
25.5 points per game
108 yards rushing
213 passing

JMU giving up only:
22 points per game
95 yards rushing
203 yards passing

They have a talented,very mobile, redshirt sophomore qb who played well in mop up duty last season. and is playing pretty well so far this season. These are his stats:

PASSING GP Effic Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yds TD Lng Avg/G
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Young, Anton 4 156.32 64-104-3 61.5 852 10 67 213.0

No big rusher- they’re leading rusher, a senior, Matt Dicken, averages 66 yards per game. Young is next with 24. They, like JMU, are relatively young on the o-line, with a redshirt freshman, sophomore, and 3 juniors listed in the CAA guide as the starters on their preseason 2 deep, across the front, averaging 6’3 ½”, 286 across the front. Predictions:

Rushing:
7. 75 yards (+- 25 yards)
8. 0 rushing TDs

Passing:
9. 175 yards (+-25 yards)
10. 2 passing TDs

11. 250 (+- 25 yards) total offense

12. JMU gets a non offensive touchdown. I predicted this for last week and it didn’t happen, and JMU has yet to get one this season. If memory serves me correctly, it was in the 5th game last yr against URI when Winston had JMU’s 1st one, a fumble return for a TD. I also remember in the 6th game Haywood’s INT return for a TD off that 1st quarter Santos pass, the Winston retutn of a blocked punt against UR, the Moats fumble return for a TD against UD, and McGee’s punt return for a TD against YSU. Just going off of memory, that’s 5 times in 12 games last season, yet none through the 1st 4 games this season. Last year against Nova LC Baker had a long punt return for a TD called back due to a penalty (if it wasn't for that JMU would have been home the 1st round and likely made it to the semis vs ASU, dang it) and another long return called back. Villanova's punt coverage that game looked very poor, so I wouldn't be surprised to see JMU take one to the house here (I wonder if LC will be 100% or close- he came out of the CCU game last week with a strained hammy?) JMU is do for a non offensive TD! (JMU basically already gave one up in the UNC game with the blocked punt recovered by UNC at the JMU 1). I see JMU getting 38, with the offense getting 31 of that.

Final score in 07’ revenge game #2:
13. JMU 38
14. Villanova 17
15. JMU by 21 (regardless of score)

http://villanova.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/nova-m-footbl-body.html

http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/supportfiles/pdf/07FBGuide/Villanova_73-78.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=8500

https://admin.xosn.com/fls/14400/stats/football/2007/teamcume.htm

[th0m]

Always a thorough analysis BDKJMU. Nice read.

[bandl]

Sorry, BDKJMU, you're gonna have to put a little more thought into that. xmadx










xcoolx

[BDKJMU]

Always a thorough analysis BDKJMU. Nice read.

Thanks thom

[youwouldno]

I think JMU wins by 2 TDs. Villanova has benefited from a lot of turnovers by the opposition but they aren't that strong in the trenches.

[BDKJMU]

I think JMU wins by 2 TDs. Villanova has benefited from a lot of turnovers by the opposition but they aren't that strong in the trenches.

Yeah, if I remember correctly Penn had 8 turnovers vs Nova in their 34-14 loss, threw 7 INTs xeekx and lost a fumble.

[bandl]

I think JMU wins by 2 TDs. Villanova has benefited from a lot of turnovers by the opposition but they aren't that strong in the trenches.


Yeah, if I remember correctly Penn had 8 turnovers vs Nova in their 34-14 loss, threw 7 INTs xeekx and lost a fumble.

Let's not forget that somebody has to cause those turnovers....xwhistlex

[BDKJMU]

Let's not forget that somebody has to cause those turnovers....xwhistlex

Not if they're gift wrapped, which is what it sounds like most were. xsmiley_wix

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=/cfoot2/news/AGN4103924.htm

http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2007/09/25/Sports/Football.The.Cover.Story-2989745.shtml

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20070923_Nova_turns_eight_Penn_turnovers_into_rout .html

[bandl]

Not if they're gift wrapped, which is what it sounds like most were. xsmiley_wix

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=/cfoot2/news/AGN4103924.htm

http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2007/09/25/Sports/Football.The.Cover.Story-2989745.shtml

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20070923_Nova_turns_eight_Penn_turnovers_into_rout .html

So you admit that someone on Villanova's team did in fact CATCH those 7 interceptions, and that the 2 Penn QB's did not in fact personally HAND OVER the ball 7 times tions to the closest defender while meandering and prancing his way around the field. :p

[BDKJMU]

Sure, was good defense on Nova's part, but the biggest reason appeared to be horrendous QB play on Penn's part.

[charliej]

Media Guide info not really a good indicator. Nova lost a couple of starters in camp,and three more in in the first two games. I think there are 12 frosh listed in the two-deep,(four of them are starting),and 6 redshirts. They're all getting play time and have been playing great ball,but are still a bit green. OL has started two true frosh since day one.

Dalessandro missed the Maine & Penn games,but will be back for Sat. As will our starting CB Durkin. We got a reserve TB back for the Penn game also,(Finally!)Dicken out there for every play since week one,was getting a bit banged up & only played the first half vs. Penn.

Considering the youth on this team,they are doing well.We'll see how they hold up as we get into a brutal confrence sched. Young has looked fantastic at times, but the Penn game looked to me like a step backwards for him.(at least in the first half).He has some great weapons to go to..just needs to get em the ball.



As for the seven Int's vs. Penn....There were three great picks by the secondary,one tipped ball and three that were outright gifts.

Cats are, in reality,probably a year away IMO,but they are giving us plenty to be excited about. xnodx

[BDKJMU]

So you admit that someone on Villanova's team did in fact CATCH those 7 interceptions, and that the 2 Penn QB's did not in fact personally HAND OVER the ball 7 times tions to the closest defender while meandering and prancing his way around the field. :p

Nova coach Talley on the Penn game:
"I think their quarterback threw seven interceptions . . . it wasn’t anything great that we did . . .the ball just came right to us . . . to be perfectly candid."

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/article.asp?articleid=87784